CKO
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* -Denotes Home Team
11 TENNESSEE over *Houston
Late Score Forecast:
TENNESSEE 31 - *Houston 23
(Monday, November 23)
10 *TENNESSEE over Vanderbilt
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 34 - Vanderbilt 7
10 *TEMPLE over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
*TEMPLE 37 - Kent State 14
10 PENN STATE over *Michigan State
Late Score Forecast:
PENN STATE 31 - *Michigan State 16
10 *HOUSTON over Memphis
Late Score Forecast:
*HOUSTON 52 - Memphis 17
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* -Denotes Home Team
11 TENNESSEE over *Houston
Late Score Forecast:
TENNESSEE 31 - *Houston 23
(Monday, November 23)
10 *TENNESSEE over Vanderbilt
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 34 - Vanderbilt 7
10 *TEMPLE over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
*TEMPLE 37 - Kent State 14
10 PENN STATE over *Michigan State
Late Score Forecast:
PENN STATE 31 - *Michigan State 16
10 *HOUSTON over Memphis
Late Score Forecast:
*HOUSTON 52 - Memphis 17
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(9) Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS)
Having wrapped up another Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes now turn their focus to continuing their dominance of hated Michigan as these rivals meet in the Big House in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State held off Iowa 27-24 in overtime last week for its fourth straight victory, and despite failing to cover as a hefty 16½-point home favorite, the Buckeyes clinched their fifth consecutive Big Ten title and earned their first Rose Bowl berth since 1996. Ohio State’s run defense, which ranks fourth in the nation, continued to dominate, allowing just 67 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and while Hawkeyes freshman James Vandenberg passed for 233 yards, he also was picked three times, the last coming in the end zone on Iowa’s first overtime possession, ending the game. Ohio State has scored at least 24 points in all nine wins – tallying 30 or more seven times – while managing just 15 and 18 points in its two losses.
The Wolverines surrendered 17 unanswered points to turn a competitive 28-24 game into a 45-24 lopsided loss at Wisconsin last week, failing to cover as a 16½-point underdog. Michigan has now dropped four in a row SU and ATS and is winless in its last six conference games, and Rich Rodriguez’s defense is allowing 35 points, 444 total yards and 197 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. A loss today ensures the Wolverines will finish with consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1962-63.
Ohio State has owned this rivalry since Jim Tressel came on board as coach, winning seven of eight meetings – including the last five in a row – while going 6-2 ATS. Last year, the Buckeyes took a 14-7 lead into the locker room at halftime, then came out and scored 28 unanswered points to win 42-7 as a 20 ½-point home favorite.
Ohio State is also 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five trips to Ann Arbor, winning and cashing in the last two, including a 14-3 victory as a four-point favorite in 2007. However, this is the first time the Buckeyes will be a double-digit favorite at the Big House; the last time they were a road chalk of more than a touchdown was in 1995, when they lost outright 31-23 giving nine points. Finally, the winner has covered in eight of the last nine series meetings.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 37-18 overall, 20-6 on the road, 38-18 as a favorite, 17-4 as a road chalk, 6-2 when laying more than 10 points, 5-1 in November and 5-0 after a non-cover. Michigan has failed to cover in six of its last seven games and is 0-6 ATS in its last six Big Ten home games. Furthermore, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 3-14 in conference action, 3-7 as a ‘dog, 2-8 after a SU loss, 0-4 in November and 2-5 versus winning teams.
The over is 8-2 in Ohio State’s last 10 November contests, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on “under” surges of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 5-2-1 as a favorite and 11-2 against teams with a losing record. Michigan carries nothing but “over” trends, including 6-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 13-4-1 in November, 9-3 as an underdog and 5-1 on artificial turf. Also, five of the last six in this rivalry have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and OVER
(17) Wisconsin (8-2, 4-5 ATS) at Northwestern (7-4, 4-6)
Wisconsin shoots for its fourth consecutive victory and at least a tie for second place in the Big Ten as it caps the conference campaign with a trip to Evanston, Ill., for a conference clash with the Wildcats.
The Badgers broke open a 28-24 game against Michigan last week, scoring the final 17 points en route to a 45-24 victory as a 16½-point home favorite. Wisconsin has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) since losing consecutive games to then-No. 9 Ohio State and then-No. 11 Iowa – the only two ranked teams the Badgers have faced this year. This is just the fourth road game for Wisconsin, which finishes the season with a non-conference game at Hawaii on Dec. 5.
Wisconsin has averaged 37.7 ppg during its three-game winning streak and has scored 28 points or more in its eight wins while managing just 23 combined points in the losses to Ohio State and Iowa.
A week after handing eighth-ranked Iowa its first loss of the season (17-10 as a 15-point road underdog, Northwestern went to Illinois and sprinted out to a 21-3 lead and held on for a 21-6 victory as a five-point road pup. QB Mike Kafka, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury, led the charge by going 23-for-37 for 305 yards with one TD and no INTs, and he also rushed for a score as the Wildcats improved to 5-2 in their last seven games (3-4 ATS). However, Northwestern has failed to cover in all five home games this year, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when hosting Big Ten rivals.
This is the first meeting between these schools since 2006, when the Badgers rolled to a 41-9 win as a 19½-point home chalk. Still, Northwestern is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including cashing in five straight at home against the Badgers, all as an underdog. That includes outright upsets in 2005 (51-48 as a 6½-point ‘dog) and 2003 (16-7 as a 10-point pup). Since that 2003 contest, the host is 4-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry.
Wisconsin is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when laying between 3½ and 10 points, going 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road favorite in that range, but otherwise the Badgers are in ATS ruts of 4-11 on the road, 1-5 against teams with a winning record and 3-7 when playing on grass. Although they’ve yet to cover a pointspread at home this year, the Wildcats are still on ATS runs of 7-1 as an underdog dating to last year, 20-6 as a pup of 3 ½ to 10 points, 7-1 as a home ‘dog in that range and 4-0 in November.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools, and Wisconsin carries “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 11-4 as a favorite, 4-1 as a road chalk and 4-0 in November. Conversely, for the Wildcats, the “under” is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in November and 7-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
North Carolina (7-3, 4-4 ATS) at Boston College (7-3, 6-3 ATS)
North Carolina hopes to damage the division titles hopes of an ACC opponent for the second straight week when it travels to Boston College, looking to become the first visitor this year to win at Alumni Stadium.
The Tar Heels dumped 12th-ranked Miami (Fla.) 33-24 last week as a three-point home underdog, clinching their second consecutive bowl berth in the process. Both teams finished with 116 rushing yards, and although Miami had a 319-213 edge in passing, North Carolina picked off Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris four times, the only turnovers in the game. It marked just the second time this season that the Tar Heels’ stout defense yielded more than 17 points.
Boston College is coming off come-from-behind 14-10 win at Virginia last week, coming up just short as a 4½-point road favorite. The Eagles have held their last four opponents to an average of 15 points (going 3-1 SU and ATS), but the inconsistent offense has now scored 16 points or fewer in four games this year while producing 27 points or more in the other six contests. They’re 6-0 at home this year (5-0 ATS in lined games), winning by an average of 24 ppg (37.7-13.7).
Boston College (4-2, 3-3 ATS in the ACC) still has an outside shot of winning the ACC Atlantic Division title, but it must beat North Carolina today and Maryland next week and hope Clemson loses at home today to Virginia. Georgia Tech has already clinched the Coastal Division title.
The Tar Heels routed then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 as a 2½-point home favorite last season and they’ve won and covered both meetings since joining the ACC, but both were in Chapel Hill.
Not only is Boston College unbeaten at home this year, it is 27-4 SU in its last 31 in Chestnut Hill. Additionally, the Eagles have won 15 of 19 ACC home games since leaving the Big East for the ACC. They’ve now cashed in seven straight lined home games and are on additional pointspread upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 4-1 against winning teams. North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, including a 20-17 upset win at No. 14 Virginia Tech as a 15½-point underdog in its last roadie.
The under is 5-1 in UNC’s last six road games, but the over is 6-2 in its last eight as a ‘dog, while B.C. is on “over” tears of 7-3 at home, 13-6 as a home chalk and 4-1 in ACC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and OVER
(13) Penn State (9-2, 4-6 ATS) at Michigan State (6-5, 4-5-1 ATS)
Penn State, hoping to lock up a New Year’s Day bowl berth, ends its regular season with a visit to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle with Michigan State, which is gunning for its third straight victory.
The Nittany Lions climbed out of an early 10-0 hole at Indiana last week and prevailed 31-20, but came up short as a 24½-point home favorite. A week after getting crushed by Ohio State 24-7 at home to end its Big Ten title dreams, Penn State was sloppy with the football, committing four turnovers. Still, Joe Paterno’s squad managed to register its ninth double-digit win of the season. In fact, 19 of the Lions’ 20 victories since the start of the 2008 season – and the last 11 in a row – have been by more than 10 points.
Michigan State was dominated in the box score at Purdue last week, yet rallied from an 11-point deficit and gutted out a 40-37 victory to become bowl-eligible. The Spartans, who pushed as a three-point road chalk, finished with just 12 first downs and 362 total yards while the defense yielded 28 first downs and 524 total yards to the Boilermakers. Michigan State is 5-2 SU in its last seven, but 1-3-1 ATS in its last five (all as a favorite), including 0-3-1 ATS in Big Ten games.
Penn State crushed the Spartans 49-18 as a 15½-point home favorite last year, avenging a 35-31 loss in East Lansing in 2007 when the Nittany Lions squandered a 24-7 lead and fell as a 2½-point favorite. The host has won 10 of the last 12 in this rivalry (9-3 ATS), with the winner covering the pointspread by an average of 21 points per contest. Going back to 1999, the SU winner has cashed nine of the last 10 meetings.
Penn State has covered in three straight road games and seven of eight as a road favorite since last year, but the Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six November contests, 1-4 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of three points or less. The Spartans are in ATS slumps of 10-21 at home, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-5 as a home pup, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 2-5 in Big Ten home games, but they’re 15-2-1 ATS the last 18 years in home finales.
Although they’ve topped the total in four of their last five roadies, the Nittany Lions carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 9-4 in November, 8-2 as a favorite and 7-2 when playing on grass. The under is also 9-3 in Michigan State’s last 12 at Spartan Stadium, but otherwise it is on “over” rolls of 39-17-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a home underdog, 10-1 when catching three points or less and 6-2 in November. Finally, the over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings between these schools, including 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
California (7-3, 4-5 ATS) at (14) Stanford (7-3 SU and ATS)
Fresh off two highly impressive victories over ranked Pac-10 opponents, the Cardinal now gear up for the 103rd edition of “The Big Game” as they host California at Stanford Stadium.
The Bears rebounded from an ugly 31-14 home loss to Oregon State by routing 18th-ranked Arizona 24-16 as a three-point home favorite, knocking the Wildcats out of the Top 25 and essentially ended their hopes for their first-ever Pac-10 title. Since suffering two embarrassing losses to Oregon and UCLA by the combined score of 72-6, Cal has won four of five (3-2 ATS). Jeff Tedford’s team scored a total of 20 points in its three losses, but has averaged 41 ppg in its seven victories (six of which have been by eight points or more).
Stanford has busted into the Top 25 for the first time since 2001 courtesy of three straight dominating SU and ATS victories. The streak began with a 33-14 home rout of Arizona State and was followed by a 51-42 home win over seventh-ranked Oregon as a seven-point underdog and last week’s 55-21 destruction of No. 11 USC as a 10½-point road pup. The Cardinal, who have already qualified for a bowl game for the first time since 2001, are 6-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 play and trail Oregon by a half-game in the race for the division title and Rose Bowl berth. They’ve scored 24 or more points in nine of 10 games, including 33 or more seven times.
In handing USC its worst home loss since 1966 last week, the Cardinal broke open a 28-21 game with four fourth-quarter touchdowns and finished with a 469-334 edge in total offense, including 325-138 on the ground. RB Toby Gerhart has thrust himself into Heisman Trophy consideration after rushing for a school-record 223 yards and three TDs against Oregon and 178 yards and three TDs against the USC.
The Bears have taken six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and they’re 6-2 ATS the last eight years. Last season, Cal cruised to a 37-16 win as an 8½-point home favorite, but the last time these teams squared off at Stanford Stadium, the Cardinal scored a 20-13 upset win as a 13½-point home underdog. This is the first time since 2001 that Stanford will be favored in this showdown, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Cal is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog, but despite covering against Arizona last week, the Bears remain in pointspread funks of 2-5 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 5-12 as a visitor, 1-4 as an underdog and 0-4 after a SU win. Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS in Palo Alto this year (15.3-point average margin of victory) and it has covered in 11 consecutive home games. Additionally, the Cardinal are on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 9-3 in conference, 6-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 in November and 8-3 versus teams with a winning record.
The Bears are riding “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-1 as an underdog and 12-4 in November, and the under is 8-3 in Stanford’s last 11 as a favorite and 10-2 in its last 12 as a home chalk. Finally, six of the last seven “Big Games” have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER
(10) LSU (8-2, 4-6 ATS) at Ole Miss (7-3, 5-3 ATS)
Ole Miss tries once again for its first three-game winning streak of the season, while also attempting to knock off LSU for the second straight year, as these SEC West rivals clash at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford.
With four key starters sitting out, the Tigers barely got by Louisiana Tech last week, holding on for a 24-16 non-conference victory but coming up way short as a 22½-point home favorite. LSU had just 246 yards and 15 first downs and is now averaging just 310 ypg on the season. Since starting off 5-0 (2-3 ATS), the Tigers are 3-2 in their last five games (2-3 ATS), and while they’ve won three of four road games, they’re just 1-3 ATS on the highway.
The Rebels followed up an easy 24-point non-lined home win over Division I-AA Northern Arizona with last Saturday’s 42-17 rout of Tennessee as a six-point home chalk. RB/WR Dexter McCluster was the main reason why Ole Miss ended a 12-game series losing streak to the Vols, rushing for a school-record 282 yards and four TDs as the Rebels finished with advantages of 492-275 in total yards and 26-18 in first downs. Ole Miss is in the midst of its third two-game winning streak of the season but has yet to win three in a row.
Ole Miss went to LSU last year and ended a six-game series losing skid to the Tigers with a 31-13 blowout win as a three-point underdog, finishing with a 409-215 edge in total offense. The Rebels are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings (all as an underdog), covering in each of the last three. In fact, the pup is on a 10-2 ATS roll in this series.
LSU continues to struggle at the betting window. Since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS, the Tigers are on pointspread slides 8-22-1 overall, 4-8 on the road and of 6-17-1 in SEC play. Additionally, LSU is mired in ATS funks of 0-9 in November, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-6 as an underdog, though Les Miles’ troops are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
The Rebels sport pointspread surges of 19-7 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk, 7-1-1 in November, 7-3 after a SU win and 4-1 after a victory over more than 20 points.
The over is 9-3 in LSU’s last 12 November contests and 12-4 in its last 16 on the road, but the Tigers are also on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 26-12-1 as an underdog, 20-8-1 as a road pup, 7-2 against winning teams and 6-0 after a non-cover. Ole Miss is also on “under” stretches of 5-2 at home, 9-2 in SEC play, 13-6 as a home favorite and 5-2 in November. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four meetings between these teams, with last year’s game staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI and UNDER
Air Force (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (19) BYU (8-2, 5-5 ATS)
Air Force tries to end the regular season with a fourth consecutive SU win and fifth straight spread-cover while at the same time snap a five-game losing streak to BYU when these Mountain West Conference rivals hook up at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.
The Falcons rolled up 557 total yards and 30 first downs, while the defense permitted just 282 yards and 16 first downs, in last week’s 45-17 thrashing of UNLV as a 17-point home chalk, their fourth straight spread-cover. All seven of Air Force’s wins have been by double digits, while its three losses have been by a total of 19 points, including two overtime losses and two three-point defeats.
A week after a 52-0 victory at Wyoming, BYU went to Albuquerque, N.M., a week ago and posted a lethargic 24-19 win over winless New Mexico, never threatening to cover as a 27½-point road favorite. Four of the Cougars’ last five games were on the road, and while they won all four, sandwiched in between was an ugly 38-7 loss to then-No. 10 TCU as a 2½-point underdog. BYU has played only four times in Provo this year, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, with the defense surrendering an average of 33 points, 421 total yards and 153.8 rushing yards per game.
BYU is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with all five victories coming by 14 points or more. Last year, the Cougars went to Colorado Springs, Colo., and rolled the Academy 38-24 as a three-point favorite.
Air Force has been a spread-covering machine on the road the last two years, going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 on the highway. The Falcons, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll, are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 in conference play, 7-2 in November and 14-6 after a SU win, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven as an underdog (1-4 ATS last five as a road pup). BYU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 Mountain West games, but 11-6 ATS as a home favorite in Bronco Mendenhall’s coaching era.
The over is on streaks of 5-0 for Air Force in November, 12-3 for Air Force after a spread-cover, 7-2 for BYU as a favorite and 6-2 for BYU in conference play
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas State (6-5, 5-4 ATS) at Nebraska (7-3 SU and ATS)
The Big 12 North title is up for grabs at Memorial Stadium, where the Huskers host Kansas State with the winner earning a berth in the conference title game, almost certainly against third-ranked Texas.
Nebraska has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and took control of the Big 12 North last week when it knocked off Kansas 31-17 as a four-point road favorite while Kansas State was losing at home to Missouri 38-12. The Cornhuskers won their first three home games by margins of 46, 31 and 55 points – all against Sun Belt Conference cupcakes – then dropped their first two Big 12 home games to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7). However, Bo Pelini’s squad reclaimed its home-field mojo with a 10-3 upset win over then-No. 20 Oklahoma in Lincoln two weeks ago.
The Wildcats have followed up a 4-1 run (3-1 ATS) by dropping two of their last three, both SU and ATS. In last week’s 26-point loss to Missouri as a 1½-point home underdog, Kansas State surrendered 433 total yards and lost the turnover battle 3-0. It was just the third time this season that the Wildcats gave up more than 23 points, as they’ve still held six of 10 opponents to 17 points or fewer. On the flip side, the offense has produced more than 20 points in just two of nine Division I-A games.
Nebraska is 4-2 in Big 12 play (3-3 ATS), a half-game ahead of Kansas State (4-3, 5-2 ATS). Since the third-place team in the North Division is 3-4, the winner of this game claims the division title.
The Huskers have won four in a row in this series (3-1 ATS), taking the last two in embarrassing fashion (73-31 in 2007; 56-28 in 2008). In those two wins, Nebraska gained a combined 1,312 yards. However, prior to this recent run by the Cornhuskers, the Wildcats had won three in a row and cashed in five straight in this rivalry, all under coach Bill Snyder, who returned to the sidelines this season after serving exclusively as the school’s athletics director for three seasons.
Kansas State has cashed in four of its last five as an underdog and seven of 10 as a road pup, but the ‘Cats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 November outings. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS in its last seven Big 12 home games, but from there, the Huskers are on pointspread surges of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 in November and 7-2 versus opponents with a winning record.
The Wildcats carry nothing but “over” streaks (21-8 on the road, 18-8 in Big 12 action, 22-10 as an underdog, 15-5 as a road underdog, 25-10 in November, 27-9 after a SU win), while Nebraska sports “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 6-1 at home and 4-1 as a favorite. Finally, the over is 10-1 in the last 11 clashes in this rivalry, with the last five in Lincoln clearing the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA and OVER
Oklahoma (6-4, 3-5 ATS) at Texas Tech (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
Two Big 12 South rivals playing for nothing but pride battle it out at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas, where the Red Raiders try for their third straight home win over Oklahoma.
The Sooners bounced back from a 10-3 loss at Nebraska and destroyed Texas A&M 65-10 last week, easily covering as a 20-point home favorite. One week after throwing five interceptions at Nebraska, Oklahoma QB Landry Jones had a career day, throwing for 392 yards and five TDs while getting intercepted just once.
It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.3 ppg in their four losses (scoring 13 or less in three of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s four losses were by a total of 12 points, while they’re six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory). Finally, the Sooners’ defense has yielded more than 16 points just twice this year.
Texas Tech gave No. 17 Oklahoma State a battle last Saturday night, eventually falling 24-17 as a 4½-point underdog. The Red Raiders, who had scored 30-plus points in five straight games and seven of their first nine, were held to a season-low in points. They’ve alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last four games and are 4-2 SU and ATS in Big 12 play (2-1 SU and ATS at home).
The home team has taken five straight in this rivalry, cashing in each of the last three. However, going back to the early 1990s, the Sooners are on 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against Texas Tech (6-2 ATS last eight), with those 12 wins coming by an average of three touchdowns.
The Sooners are in pointspread slumps of 1-4-1 on the road and 0-3-1 after a victory, but they remain on positive ATS runs of 8-3-1 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a road favorite, 6-1 in November and 7-1 on artificial turf. Texas Tech is 39-16 ATS in its last 55 games after a SU defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog, including four straight spread-covers as home pup of 3½ to 10 points.
Aside from their 11-4 “over” run in conference and 5-1 “over” run in November, and the Sooners have been an “under” team of late, including 9-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-2 as a favorite and 7-2 against winning teams. The under is also 5-2 in the Red Raiders’ last seven league games, but five of their last six in Lubbock have gone over the total. Meanwhile, te last two series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
(11) Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) at Arizona (6-3, 4-4 ATS)
Back in the Pac-10 driver’s seat, Oregon will try to stay on track for the conference title an automatic Rose Bowl berth as they hit the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, this time stopping at Arizona Stadium in Tucson for a league meeting with the Wildcats.
The Ducks’ seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) went up in smoke two weeks ago after a 51-42 loss at Stanford as a seven-point road favorite, but they bounced back with last Saturday’s 44-21 win over Arizona State as a 19-point home favorite. Oregon’s defense stole the show, limiting the Sun Devils to 211 total yards, and even though the offense was “held” to just 388 total yards, they still managed to top the 40-point mark for the fourth straight game and the sixth time in the last season. Since a season opening 19-8 loss at Boise State, the Ducks have averaged 40.3 ppg.
Arizona had its three-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped at Cal last week, taking a 16-15 early fourth-quarter lead before surrendering the final nine points in a 24-16 loss as a three-point road underdog. The Wildcats managed just 274 total yards – a season-low in conference play – while the defense yielded 357, the final 61 coming on a rushing touchdown by Cal that sealed the game with less than two minutes to play. Still, the Arizona defense has allowed just 14.7 ppg in the last three games after giving up 38, 36 and 32 points (35.3 ppg) in its first three league contests.
Oregon controls its own destiny in the Pac-10 race and will claim the league title with a victory today and a home win over archrival Oregon State in the season finale in two weeks. Arizona (4-2 in the Pac-10) is one of three teams right behind the Ducks with two league losses.
The SU winner has cashed in nine of Oregon’s 10 games this year, including the last eight in a row, while the SU winner is 7-0 in Arizona’s last seven.
The Ducks hold the longtime series edge, taking 13 of the last 18 from Arizona (12-6 ATS), but the Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including 2-0 ATS in Tucson. Two years ago, Oregon went to Arizona as the third-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Dennis Dixon to a first-quarter injury and fell 34-24 as a 10½-point road favorite. The last year, the teams combined for more than 1,000 yards of total offense, with the Ducks building a 45-17 lead then holding on for a 55-45 victory, covering as a six-point favorite. Oregon has been favored in each of the last nine meetings.
The Ducks have cashed in seven of eight games, but both non-covers this year came on the road (at Boise State, at Stanford). They’re also on ATS runs of 8-1 in conference, 5-1 as a road favorite and 9-1 following a SU win.
Arizona is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog since coach Mike Stoops took over the program in 2004, going 5-1 ATS in that role since 2006. The Wildcats are on additional pointspread surges of 11-2 at home, 4-0 as a home pup, 13-6 when playing on grass and 6-2 after a SU defeat, but they have dropped four of five ATS in November.
Oregon carries a plethora of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall (all in conference), 5-0 in November, 12-2-2 as a favorite, 5-0-1 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 12-5 as a road chalk and 7-3 against teams with a winning record. However, the under is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight home contests. Also, three of the last four Ducks-Wildcats battles in Tucson have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(9) Ohio State (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Michigan (5-6, 4-6 ATS)
Having wrapped up another Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes now turn their focus to continuing their dominance of hated Michigan as these rivals meet in the Big House in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State held off Iowa 27-24 in overtime last week for its fourth straight victory, and despite failing to cover as a hefty 16½-point home favorite, the Buckeyes clinched their fifth consecutive Big Ten title and earned their first Rose Bowl berth since 1996. Ohio State’s run defense, which ranks fourth in the nation, continued to dominate, allowing just 67 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and while Hawkeyes freshman James Vandenberg passed for 233 yards, he also was picked three times, the last coming in the end zone on Iowa’s first overtime possession, ending the game. Ohio State has scored at least 24 points in all nine wins – tallying 30 or more seven times – while managing just 15 and 18 points in its two losses.
The Wolverines surrendered 17 unanswered points to turn a competitive 28-24 game into a 45-24 lopsided loss at Wisconsin last week, failing to cover as a 16½-point underdog. Michigan has now dropped four in a row SU and ATS and is winless in its last six conference games, and Rich Rodriguez’s defense is allowing 35 points, 444 total yards and 197 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play. A loss today ensures the Wolverines will finish with consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1962-63.
Ohio State has owned this rivalry since Jim Tressel came on board as coach, winning seven of eight meetings – including the last five in a row – while going 6-2 ATS. Last year, the Buckeyes took a 14-7 lead into the locker room at halftime, then came out and scored 28 unanswered points to win 42-7 as a 20 ½-point home favorite.
Ohio State is also 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five trips to Ann Arbor, winning and cashing in the last two, including a 14-3 victory as a four-point favorite in 2007. However, this is the first time the Buckeyes will be a double-digit favorite at the Big House; the last time they were a road chalk of more than a touchdown was in 1995, when they lost outright 31-23 giving nine points. Finally, the winner has covered in eight of the last nine series meetings.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 37-18 overall, 20-6 on the road, 38-18 as a favorite, 17-4 as a road chalk, 6-2 when laying more than 10 points, 5-1 in November and 5-0 after a non-cover. Michigan has failed to cover in six of its last seven games and is 0-6 ATS in its last six Big Ten home games. Furthermore, the Wolverines are in pointspread dips of 3-14 in conference action, 3-7 as a ‘dog, 2-8 after a SU loss, 0-4 in November and 2-5 versus winning teams.
The over is 8-2 in Ohio State’s last 10 November contests, but otherwise the Buckeyes are on “under” surges of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 5-2-1 as a favorite and 11-2 against teams with a losing record. Michigan carries nothing but “over” trends, including 6-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 13-4-1 in November, 9-3 as an underdog and 5-1 on artificial turf. Also, five of the last six in this rivalry have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and OVER
(17) Wisconsin (8-2, 4-5 ATS) at Northwestern (7-4, 4-6)
Wisconsin shoots for its fourth consecutive victory and at least a tie for second place in the Big Ten as it caps the conference campaign with a trip to Evanston, Ill., for a conference clash with the Wildcats.
The Badgers broke open a 28-24 game against Michigan last week, scoring the final 17 points en route to a 45-24 victory as a 16½-point home favorite. Wisconsin has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) since losing consecutive games to then-No. 9 Ohio State and then-No. 11 Iowa – the only two ranked teams the Badgers have faced this year. This is just the fourth road game for Wisconsin, which finishes the season with a non-conference game at Hawaii on Dec. 5.
Wisconsin has averaged 37.7 ppg during its three-game winning streak and has scored 28 points or more in its eight wins while managing just 23 combined points in the losses to Ohio State and Iowa.
A week after handing eighth-ranked Iowa its first loss of the season (17-10 as a 15-point road underdog, Northwestern went to Illinois and sprinted out to a 21-3 lead and held on for a 21-6 victory as a five-point road pup. QB Mike Kafka, who has been dealing with a hamstring injury, led the charge by going 23-for-37 for 305 yards with one TD and no INTs, and he also rushed for a score as the Wildcats improved to 5-2 in their last seven games (3-4 ATS). However, Northwestern has failed to cover in all five home games this year, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when hosting Big Ten rivals.
This is the first meeting between these schools since 2006, when the Badgers rolled to a 41-9 win as a 19½-point home chalk. Still, Northwestern is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including cashing in five straight at home against the Badgers, all as an underdog. That includes outright upsets in 2005 (51-48 as a 6½-point ‘dog) and 2003 (16-7 as a 10-point pup). Since that 2003 contest, the host is 4-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry.
Wisconsin is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when laying between 3½ and 10 points, going 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road favorite in that range, but otherwise the Badgers are in ATS ruts of 4-11 on the road, 1-5 against teams with a winning record and 3-7 when playing on grass. Although they’ve yet to cover a pointspread at home this year, the Wildcats are still on ATS runs of 7-1 as an underdog dating to last year, 20-6 as a pup of 3 ½ to 10 points, 7-1 as a home ‘dog in that range and 4-0 in November.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools, and Wisconsin carries “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 11-4 as a favorite, 4-1 as a road chalk and 4-0 in November. Conversely, for the Wildcats, the “under” is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in November and 7-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
North Carolina (7-3, 4-4 ATS) at Boston College (7-3, 6-3 ATS)
North Carolina hopes to damage the division titles hopes of an ACC opponent for the second straight week when it travels to Boston College, looking to become the first visitor this year to win at Alumni Stadium.
The Tar Heels dumped 12th-ranked Miami (Fla.) 33-24 last week as a three-point home underdog, clinching their second consecutive bowl berth in the process. Both teams finished with 116 rushing yards, and although Miami had a 319-213 edge in passing, North Carolina picked off Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris four times, the only turnovers in the game. It marked just the second time this season that the Tar Heels’ stout defense yielded more than 17 points.
Boston College is coming off come-from-behind 14-10 win at Virginia last week, coming up just short as a 4½-point road favorite. The Eagles have held their last four opponents to an average of 15 points (going 3-1 SU and ATS), but the inconsistent offense has now scored 16 points or fewer in four games this year while producing 27 points or more in the other six contests. They’re 6-0 at home this year (5-0 ATS in lined games), winning by an average of 24 ppg (37.7-13.7).
Boston College (4-2, 3-3 ATS in the ACC) still has an outside shot of winning the ACC Atlantic Division title, but it must beat North Carolina today and Maryland next week and hope Clemson loses at home today to Virginia. Georgia Tech has already clinched the Coastal Division title.
The Tar Heels routed then-No. 23 Boston College 45-24 as a 2½-point home favorite last season and they’ve won and covered both meetings since joining the ACC, but both were in Chapel Hill.
Not only is Boston College unbeaten at home this year, it is 27-4 SU in its last 31 in Chestnut Hill. Additionally, the Eagles have won 15 of 19 ACC home games since leaving the Big East for the ACC. They’ve now cashed in seven straight lined home games and are on additional pointspread upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 4-1 against winning teams. North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, including a 20-17 upset win at No. 14 Virginia Tech as a 15½-point underdog in its last roadie.
The under is 5-1 in UNC’s last six road games, but the over is 6-2 in its last eight as a ‘dog, while B.C. is on “over” tears of 7-3 at home, 13-6 as a home chalk and 4-1 in ACC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and OVER
(13) Penn State (9-2, 4-6 ATS) at Michigan State (6-5, 4-5-1 ATS)
Penn State, hoping to lock up a New Year’s Day bowl berth, ends its regular season with a visit to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle with Michigan State, which is gunning for its third straight victory.
The Nittany Lions climbed out of an early 10-0 hole at Indiana last week and prevailed 31-20, but came up short as a 24½-point home favorite. A week after getting crushed by Ohio State 24-7 at home to end its Big Ten title dreams, Penn State was sloppy with the football, committing four turnovers. Still, Joe Paterno’s squad managed to register its ninth double-digit win of the season. In fact, 19 of the Lions’ 20 victories since the start of the 2008 season – and the last 11 in a row – have been by more than 10 points.
Michigan State was dominated in the box score at Purdue last week, yet rallied from an 11-point deficit and gutted out a 40-37 victory to become bowl-eligible. The Spartans, who pushed as a three-point road chalk, finished with just 12 first downs and 362 total yards while the defense yielded 28 first downs and 524 total yards to the Boilermakers. Michigan State is 5-2 SU in its last seven, but 1-3-1 ATS in its last five (all as a favorite), including 0-3-1 ATS in Big Ten games.
Penn State crushed the Spartans 49-18 as a 15½-point home favorite last year, avenging a 35-31 loss in East Lansing in 2007 when the Nittany Lions squandered a 24-7 lead and fell as a 2½-point favorite. The host has won 10 of the last 12 in this rivalry (9-3 ATS), with the winner covering the pointspread by an average of 21 points per contest. Going back to 1999, the SU winner has cashed nine of the last 10 meetings.
Penn State has covered in three straight road games and seven of eight as a road favorite since last year, but the Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six November contests, 1-4 ATS in their last five after a non-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of three points or less. The Spartans are in ATS slumps of 10-21 at home, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-5 as a home pup, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 2-5 in Big Ten home games, but they’re 15-2-1 ATS the last 18 years in home finales.
Although they’ve topped the total in four of their last five roadies, the Nittany Lions carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 9-4 in November, 8-2 as a favorite and 7-2 when playing on grass. The under is also 9-3 in Michigan State’s last 12 at Spartan Stadium, but otherwise it is on “over” rolls of 39-17-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a home underdog, 10-1 when catching three points or less and 6-2 in November. Finally, the over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings between these schools, including 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
California (7-3, 4-5 ATS) at (14) Stanford (7-3 SU and ATS)
Fresh off two highly impressive victories over ranked Pac-10 opponents, the Cardinal now gear up for the 103rd edition of “The Big Game” as they host California at Stanford Stadium.
The Bears rebounded from an ugly 31-14 home loss to Oregon State by routing 18th-ranked Arizona 24-16 as a three-point home favorite, knocking the Wildcats out of the Top 25 and essentially ended their hopes for their first-ever Pac-10 title. Since suffering two embarrassing losses to Oregon and UCLA by the combined score of 72-6, Cal has won four of five (3-2 ATS). Jeff Tedford’s team scored a total of 20 points in its three losses, but has averaged 41 ppg in its seven victories (six of which have been by eight points or more).
Stanford has busted into the Top 25 for the first time since 2001 courtesy of three straight dominating SU and ATS victories. The streak began with a 33-14 home rout of Arizona State and was followed by a 51-42 home win over seventh-ranked Oregon as a seven-point underdog and last week’s 55-21 destruction of No. 11 USC as a 10½-point road pup. The Cardinal, who have already qualified for a bowl game for the first time since 2001, are 6-2 SU and ATS in Pac-10 play and trail Oregon by a half-game in the race for the division title and Rose Bowl berth. They’ve scored 24 or more points in nine of 10 games, including 33 or more seven times.
In handing USC its worst home loss since 1966 last week, the Cardinal broke open a 28-21 game with four fourth-quarter touchdowns and finished with a 469-334 edge in total offense, including 325-138 on the ground. RB Toby Gerhart has thrust himself into Heisman Trophy consideration after rushing for a school-record 223 yards and three TDs against Oregon and 178 yards and three TDs against the USC.
The Bears have taken six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry and they’re 6-2 ATS the last eight years. Last season, Cal cruised to a 37-16 win as an 8½-point home favorite, but the last time these teams squared off at Stanford Stadium, the Cardinal scored a 20-13 upset win as a 13½-point home underdog. This is the first time since 2001 that Stanford will be favored in this showdown, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Cal is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog, but despite covering against Arizona last week, the Bears remain in pointspread funks of 2-5 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 5-12 as a visitor, 1-4 as an underdog and 0-4 after a SU win. Stanford is 4-0 SU and ATS in Palo Alto this year (15.3-point average margin of victory) and it has covered in 11 consecutive home games. Additionally, the Cardinal are on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 9-3 in conference, 6-1 as a chalk, 12-3-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 in November and 8-3 versus teams with a winning record.
The Bears are riding “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-1 as an underdog and 12-4 in November, and the under is 8-3 in Stanford’s last 11 as a favorite and 10-2 in its last 12 as a home chalk. Finally, six of the last seven “Big Games” have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD and UNDER
(10) LSU (8-2, 4-6 ATS) at Ole Miss (7-3, 5-3 ATS)
Ole Miss tries once again for its first three-game winning streak of the season, while also attempting to knock off LSU for the second straight year, as these SEC West rivals clash at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford.
With four key starters sitting out, the Tigers barely got by Louisiana Tech last week, holding on for a 24-16 non-conference victory but coming up way short as a 22½-point home favorite. LSU had just 246 yards and 15 first downs and is now averaging just 310 ypg on the season. Since starting off 5-0 (2-3 ATS), the Tigers are 3-2 in their last five games (2-3 ATS), and while they’ve won three of four road games, they’re just 1-3 ATS on the highway.
The Rebels followed up an easy 24-point non-lined home win over Division I-AA Northern Arizona with last Saturday’s 42-17 rout of Tennessee as a six-point home chalk. RB/WR Dexter McCluster was the main reason why Ole Miss ended a 12-game series losing streak to the Vols, rushing for a school-record 282 yards and four TDs as the Rebels finished with advantages of 492-275 in total yards and 26-18 in first downs. Ole Miss is in the midst of its third two-game winning streak of the season but has yet to win three in a row.
Ole Miss went to LSU last year and ended a six-game series losing skid to the Tigers with a 31-13 blowout win as a three-point underdog, finishing with a 409-215 edge in total offense. The Rebels are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings (all as an underdog), covering in each of the last three. In fact, the pup is on a 10-2 ATS roll in this series.
LSU continues to struggle at the betting window. Since starting the 2007 season 3-0 ATS, the Tigers are on pointspread slides 8-22-1 overall, 4-8 on the road and of 6-17-1 in SEC play. Additionally, LSU is mired in ATS funks of 0-9 in November, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-6 as an underdog, though Les Miles’ troops are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when catching between 3½ and 10 points.
The Rebels sport pointspread surges of 19-7 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk, 7-1-1 in November, 7-3 after a SU win and 4-1 after a victory over more than 20 points.
The over is 9-3 in LSU’s last 12 November contests and 12-4 in its last 16 on the road, but the Tigers are also on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 26-12-1 as an underdog, 20-8-1 as a road pup, 7-2 against winning teams and 6-0 after a non-cover. Ole Miss is also on “under” stretches of 5-2 at home, 9-2 in SEC play, 13-6 as a home favorite and 5-2 in November. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four meetings between these teams, with last year’s game staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI and UNDER
Air Force (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (19) BYU (8-2, 5-5 ATS)
Air Force tries to end the regular season with a fourth consecutive SU win and fifth straight spread-cover while at the same time snap a five-game losing streak to BYU when these Mountain West Conference rivals hook up at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.
The Falcons rolled up 557 total yards and 30 first downs, while the defense permitted just 282 yards and 16 first downs, in last week’s 45-17 thrashing of UNLV as a 17-point home chalk, their fourth straight spread-cover. All seven of Air Force’s wins have been by double digits, while its three losses have been by a total of 19 points, including two overtime losses and two three-point defeats.
A week after a 52-0 victory at Wyoming, BYU went to Albuquerque, N.M., a week ago and posted a lethargic 24-19 win over winless New Mexico, never threatening to cover as a 27½-point road favorite. Four of the Cougars’ last five games were on the road, and while they won all four, sandwiched in between was an ugly 38-7 loss to then-No. 10 TCU as a 2½-point underdog. BYU has played only four times in Provo this year, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, with the defense surrendering an average of 33 points, 421 total yards and 153.8 rushing yards per game.
BYU is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with all five victories coming by 14 points or more. Last year, the Cougars went to Colorado Springs, Colo., and rolled the Academy 38-24 as a three-point favorite.
Air Force has been a spread-covering machine on the road the last two years, going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 on the highway. The Falcons, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll, are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 in conference play, 7-2 in November and 14-6 after a SU win, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven as an underdog (1-4 ATS last five as a road pup). BYU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 Mountain West games, but 11-6 ATS as a home favorite in Bronco Mendenhall’s coaching era.
The over is on streaks of 5-0 for Air Force in November, 12-3 for Air Force after a spread-cover, 7-2 for BYU as a favorite and 6-2 for BYU in conference play
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kansas State (6-5, 5-4 ATS) at Nebraska (7-3 SU and ATS)
The Big 12 North title is up for grabs at Memorial Stadium, where the Huskers host Kansas State with the winner earning a berth in the conference title game, almost certainly against third-ranked Texas.
Nebraska has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and took control of the Big 12 North last week when it knocked off Kansas 31-17 as a four-point road favorite while Kansas State was losing at home to Missouri 38-12. The Cornhuskers won their first three home games by margins of 46, 31 and 55 points – all against Sun Belt Conference cupcakes – then dropped their first two Big 12 home games to Texas Tech (31-10) and Iowa State (9-7). However, Bo Pelini’s squad reclaimed its home-field mojo with a 10-3 upset win over then-No. 20 Oklahoma in Lincoln two weeks ago.
The Wildcats have followed up a 4-1 run (3-1 ATS) by dropping two of their last three, both SU and ATS. In last week’s 26-point loss to Missouri as a 1½-point home underdog, Kansas State surrendered 433 total yards and lost the turnover battle 3-0. It was just the third time this season that the Wildcats gave up more than 23 points, as they’ve still held six of 10 opponents to 17 points or fewer. On the flip side, the offense has produced more than 20 points in just two of nine Division I-A games.
Nebraska is 4-2 in Big 12 play (3-3 ATS), a half-game ahead of Kansas State (4-3, 5-2 ATS). Since the third-place team in the North Division is 3-4, the winner of this game claims the division title.
The Huskers have won four in a row in this series (3-1 ATS), taking the last two in embarrassing fashion (73-31 in 2007; 56-28 in 2008). In those two wins, Nebraska gained a combined 1,312 yards. However, prior to this recent run by the Cornhuskers, the Wildcats had won three in a row and cashed in five straight in this rivalry, all under coach Bill Snyder, who returned to the sidelines this season after serving exclusively as the school’s athletics director for three seasons.
Kansas State has cashed in four of its last five as an underdog and seven of 10 as a road pup, but the ‘Cats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 November outings. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS in its last seven Big 12 home games, but from there, the Huskers are on pointspread surges of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 in November and 7-2 versus opponents with a winning record.
The Wildcats carry nothing but “over” streaks (21-8 on the road, 18-8 in Big 12 action, 22-10 as an underdog, 15-5 as a road underdog, 25-10 in November, 27-9 after a SU win), while Nebraska sports “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 6-1 at home and 4-1 as a favorite. Finally, the over is 10-1 in the last 11 clashes in this rivalry, with the last five in Lincoln clearing the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA and OVER
Oklahoma (6-4, 3-5 ATS) at Texas Tech (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
Two Big 12 South rivals playing for nothing but pride battle it out at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas, where the Red Raiders try for their third straight home win over Oklahoma.
The Sooners bounced back from a 10-3 loss at Nebraska and destroyed Texas A&M 65-10 last week, easily covering as a 20-point home favorite. One week after throwing five interceptions at Nebraska, Oklahoma QB Landry Jones had a career day, throwing for 392 yards and five TDs while getting intercepted just once.
It has been feast-or-famine all year for the Sooners, who have averaged 12.3 ppg in their four losses (scoring 13 or less in three of them) and 47.3 ppg in their six victories (tallying at least 33 points in all six). Additionally, OU’s four losses were by a total of 12 points, while they’re six wins were all double-digit blowouts (37.3-point average margin of victory). Finally, the Sooners’ defense has yielded more than 16 points just twice this year.
Texas Tech gave No. 17 Oklahoma State a battle last Saturday night, eventually falling 24-17 as a 4½-point underdog. The Red Raiders, who had scored 30-plus points in five straight games and seven of their first nine, were held to a season-low in points. They’ve alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last four games and are 4-2 SU and ATS in Big 12 play (2-1 SU and ATS at home).
The home team has taken five straight in this rivalry, cashing in each of the last three. However, going back to the early 1990s, the Sooners are on 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against Texas Tech (6-2 ATS last eight), with those 12 wins coming by an average of three touchdowns.
The Sooners are in pointspread slumps of 1-4-1 on the road and 0-3-1 after a victory, but they remain on positive ATS runs of 8-3-1 in Big 12 play, 7-2 as a road favorite, 6-1 in November and 7-1 on artificial turf. Texas Tech is 39-16 ATS in its last 55 games after a SU defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog, including four straight spread-covers as home pup of 3½ to 10 points.
Aside from their 11-4 “over” run in conference and 5-1 “over” run in November, and the Sooners have been an “under” team of late, including 9-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-2 as a favorite and 7-2 against winning teams. The under is also 5-2 in the Red Raiders’ last seven league games, but five of their last six in Lubbock have gone over the total. Meanwhile, te last two series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
(11) Oregon (8-2, 7-3 ATS) at Arizona (6-3, 4-4 ATS)
Back in the Pac-10 driver’s seat, Oregon will try to stay on track for the conference title an automatic Rose Bowl berth as they hit the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, this time stopping at Arizona Stadium in Tucson for a league meeting with the Wildcats.
The Ducks’ seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) went up in smoke two weeks ago after a 51-42 loss at Stanford as a seven-point road favorite, but they bounced back with last Saturday’s 44-21 win over Arizona State as a 19-point home favorite. Oregon’s defense stole the show, limiting the Sun Devils to 211 total yards, and even though the offense was “held” to just 388 total yards, they still managed to top the 40-point mark for the fourth straight game and the sixth time in the last season. Since a season opening 19-8 loss at Boise State, the Ducks have averaged 40.3 ppg.
Arizona had its three-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped at Cal last week, taking a 16-15 early fourth-quarter lead before surrendering the final nine points in a 24-16 loss as a three-point road underdog. The Wildcats managed just 274 total yards – a season-low in conference play – while the defense yielded 357, the final 61 coming on a rushing touchdown by Cal that sealed the game with less than two minutes to play. Still, the Arizona defense has allowed just 14.7 ppg in the last three games after giving up 38, 36 and 32 points (35.3 ppg) in its first three league contests.
Oregon controls its own destiny in the Pac-10 race and will claim the league title with a victory today and a home win over archrival Oregon State in the season finale in two weeks. Arizona (4-2 in the Pac-10) is one of three teams right behind the Ducks with two league losses.
The SU winner has cashed in nine of Oregon’s 10 games this year, including the last eight in a row, while the SU winner is 7-0 in Arizona’s last seven.
The Ducks hold the longtime series edge, taking 13 of the last 18 from Arizona (12-6 ATS), but the Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including 2-0 ATS in Tucson. Two years ago, Oregon went to Arizona as the third-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Dennis Dixon to a first-quarter injury and fell 34-24 as a 10½-point road favorite. The last year, the teams combined for more than 1,000 yards of total offense, with the Ducks building a 45-17 lead then holding on for a 55-45 victory, covering as a six-point favorite. Oregon has been favored in each of the last nine meetings.
The Ducks have cashed in seven of eight games, but both non-covers this year came on the road (at Boise State, at Stanford). They’re also on ATS runs of 8-1 in conference, 5-1 as a road favorite and 9-1 following a SU win.
Arizona is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog since coach Mike Stoops took over the program in 2004, going 5-1 ATS in that role since 2006. The Wildcats are on additional pointspread surges of 11-2 at home, 4-0 as a home pup, 13-6 when playing on grass and 6-2 after a SU defeat, but they have dropped four of five ATS in November.
Oregon carries a plethora of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall (all in conference), 5-0 in November, 12-2-2 as a favorite, 5-0-1 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 12-5 as a road chalk and 7-3 against teams with a winning record. However, the under is 7-1 in Arizona’s last eight home contests. Also, three of the last four Ducks-Wildcats battles in Tucson have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Randall the Handle 11/21
North Carolina St. +21 over Virginia Tech PINNACLE
For North Carolina State to be three touchdown underdogs in conference play this late in the season shows how far they have sunk from the days of Phillip Rivers and Co. The win over Pittsburgh seems like it happened years ago and the prospects of a bowl game have disappeared for the Wolfpack, as it’s up to head coach Tom O’Brien to motivate his players to compete in these last two games. O’Brien isn’t on the hot seat and similarly to last week’s Syracuse-Louisville game, the players who are coming back next season will have to play hard, decreasing the chances of a no-show. Virginia Tech can’t win the ACC and are going to settle for a mid-level bowl, which has to be considered a disappointment for the preseason favorite and dark horse National Title contender. With both teams going up against each other with very little but pride at stake, the statistics compiled thus far mean a lot more than games with extra motivators. The saving grace for North Carolina State has been the play of QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns, tops in the ACC, and 2534 yards with a 58% completion percentage. Wilson and RB Toney Baker have led North Carolina State to the ACC’s fourth best points per game mark at 32.6. Having an offense that can produce when getting 21 points is extremely important, as it leaves the door open for backdoor covers and shootouts where touchdowns are simply traded all game long. Virginia Tech will move the ball against the atrocious North Carolina State defense that gives up 31 points a game. Nevertheless, Va Tech is laying too many points to a potent offense. “Beamer Ball” calls for defense and special teams to score and if that’s how Virginia Tech is going to put points on the scoreboard this Saturday, one would have to feel confident in having a three touchdown cushion. Play: #335 North Carolina State +21 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
California +7½ over STANFORD PINNACLE
You have to give all the respect to the Stanford Cardinal for what they have accomplished this season. After going 5-7 last season, Stanford is 7-3 thus far and is in great position to play in this years Rose Bowl. Jim Harbaugh has put his name among the elite in College Football and has his team playing at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Perhaps the most impressive feat of all was humiliating USC 55-21 on the road, a result so shocking that many observers dubbed an error upon first glance. Stanford’s victory was by far the biggest this decade and without a doubt the biggest win this season. California meanwhile is having a respectable season that had potential to be special if not for the loss of Javhid Best, who at the time of his injury was considered the leading Heisman Trophy candidate. California is coming off a big win over 18th ranked Arizona, completing a fourth quarter comeback to win 24-16. California quarterback Kevin Reilly has thrown 15 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions and RB Shane Vereen has filled in admirably for Best, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to keep California’s running game effective. There are really only two angles to play this game at; if you believe Stanford is for real and can play with giant targets on their backs, lay the points. Stanford hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001 and their players are competing in completely different conditions than they have ever played in. The number of teams who have had gigantic wins one week and then crashed the next are seemingly endless and I think Stanford will lay a giant egg playing as the hunted. I’ll play that angle and call the outright upset but will gladly take the points with a strong, trustworthy California team. Play: #357 California +7½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
North Carolina St. +21 over Virginia Tech PINNACLE
For North Carolina State to be three touchdown underdogs in conference play this late in the season shows how far they have sunk from the days of Phillip Rivers and Co. The win over Pittsburgh seems like it happened years ago and the prospects of a bowl game have disappeared for the Wolfpack, as it’s up to head coach Tom O’Brien to motivate his players to compete in these last two games. O’Brien isn’t on the hot seat and similarly to last week’s Syracuse-Louisville game, the players who are coming back next season will have to play hard, decreasing the chances of a no-show. Virginia Tech can’t win the ACC and are going to settle for a mid-level bowl, which has to be considered a disappointment for the preseason favorite and dark horse National Title contender. With both teams going up against each other with very little but pride at stake, the statistics compiled thus far mean a lot more than games with extra motivators. The saving grace for North Carolina State has been the play of QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns, tops in the ACC, and 2534 yards with a 58% completion percentage. Wilson and RB Toney Baker have led North Carolina State to the ACC’s fourth best points per game mark at 32.6. Having an offense that can produce when getting 21 points is extremely important, as it leaves the door open for backdoor covers and shootouts where touchdowns are simply traded all game long. Virginia Tech will move the ball against the atrocious North Carolina State defense that gives up 31 points a game. Nevertheless, Va Tech is laying too many points to a potent offense. “Beamer Ball” calls for defense and special teams to score and if that’s how Virginia Tech is going to put points on the scoreboard this Saturday, one would have to feel confident in having a three touchdown cushion. Play: #335 North Carolina State +21 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
California +7½ over STANFORD PINNACLE
You have to give all the respect to the Stanford Cardinal for what they have accomplished this season. After going 5-7 last season, Stanford is 7-3 thus far and is in great position to play in this years Rose Bowl. Jim Harbaugh has put his name among the elite in College Football and has his team playing at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Perhaps the most impressive feat of all was humiliating USC 55-21 on the road, a result so shocking that many observers dubbed an error upon first glance. Stanford’s victory was by far the biggest this decade and without a doubt the biggest win this season. California meanwhile is having a respectable season that had potential to be special if not for the loss of Javhid Best, who at the time of his injury was considered the leading Heisman Trophy candidate. California is coming off a big win over 18th ranked Arizona, completing a fourth quarter comeback to win 24-16. California quarterback Kevin Reilly has thrown 15 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions and RB Shane Vereen has filled in admirably for Best, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to keep California’s running game effective. There are really only two angles to play this game at; if you believe Stanford is for real and can play with giant targets on their backs, lay the points. Stanford hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001 and their players are competing in completely different conditions than they have ever played in. The number of teams who have had gigantic wins one week and then crashed the next are seemingly endless and I think Stanford will lay a giant egg playing as the hunted. I’ll play that angle and call the outright upset but will gladly take the points with a strong, trustworthy California team. Play: #357 California +7½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Logical Approach
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: California + 7 over STANFORD - Stanford enters the "Big Game" with plenty of momentum following wins over Oregon and USC by a combined score 106-63, topping 50 points against each. Earlier Cal lost to both by a combined 72-6, dashing their hopes of a Rose Bowl season and once again disappointing those who seeming annually predict big things for the Cal program. But that's what makes rivalry games so special. The underdog, especially a talented one, generally has the greater motivation to either salvage their season or ruin their biggest foe's. Cal is without their best player, RB Best, but even in his absence defeated Rose Bowl contender Arizona last week. There are not too many negatives to cite about Stanford other than a letdown would not be a surprise following those two huge wins even against their most bitter of rivals. Cal has won 6 of the last 7 in the series (all as favorites) so Stanford will be motivated as well. Cal has a slightly better defense, especially against the run, the strength of Stanford's offense. Although an upset would not surprise , the call is for a close game, Stanford wins but by just 34-31.
Other Featured College Selections
Kentucky + 9 over GEORGIA - Both teams are 6-4 which represents a disappointing season for Georgia but a solid campaign for Kentucky. These teams have similar resumes including wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn and one sided losses to Florida. They are very similar statistically. On offense Kentucky has a better ground game while Georgia has been stronger through the air. Defensively Georgia is stronger against the run while Kentucky is better defending the pass. Georgia has dominated this series over the years but KY has been much more competitive of late, covering 2 of the last 3 with a straight up win. This is Georgia's weakest team since they were 8-4 in 2001. Kentucky is having a season similar to the last 3 seasons that have seen the Wildcats go to 3 straight Bowls. Both teams have traditional season ending games on deck and with these teams so evenly matched a close game should result. Georgia wins but by just 27-24.
BYU - 10 over Air Force - The Mountain West has unfolded pretty much as expected with TCU the clearly dominant team, followed by BYU and Utah and then a gap to Air Force and then a huge dropoff to the rest of the conference. BYU is 8-2 with one sided losses to TCU and Florida State, both of which have come on their home field. Air Force is enjoying a solid season and they gave TCU their toughest test, losing 20-17 at home despite being outgained by over 100 yards. The Force has played outstanding defense all season and value the football, losing just 7 turnovers all season. But BYU has dominated Air Force recently, winning 5 straight with each win by at least 14 points with an average score of 41-22. Even the past 2 seasons, when AF won 8 and 9 games, BYU defeated Air Force handily. There's too much of a talent edge for BYU. Air Force plays smartly and will hang tough for a while, but BYU ultimately creates distance. BYU wins 37-20.
HOUSTON - 24 over Memphis - Houston suffered only their second loss of the season last week and has a chance for a 10 win season with a win here and next week over Rice. The Cougars have fared well when stepping up in class this season with wins at Oklahoma State and Mississippi State and at home over Texas Tech. Memphis is 2-8 and fired coach West last week. His team responded with a flat effort in their final home game against UAB and it's hard to see the Tigers having any motivation as they play their final 2 games. Houston has a high powered, quick strike offense but their defense is very weak. But Memphis' offense has struggled all season to find consistency. The defense is allowing nearly 16 yards per completion, a sign of either poor positioning or poor tackling - or both! Memphis is 1-8 ATS - worst in the nation, clearly showing underachievement against expectations. Houston has the firepower to put points on the board and Memphis is likely to show little resistance. Once they fall behind they likely also lose interest. Houston wins 54-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinion)
BOWLING GREEN - 11 over Akron (Fri)
OHIO U Pick 'em over Northern Illinois
Wisconsin - 7 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA - 10 over Minnesota
Rutgers - 8 over SYRACUSE
INDIANA + 3 over Purdue
VIRGINIA TECH - 21 over North Carolina State
MISSOURI - 15 over Iowa State
Vanderbilt + 16 1/1 over TENNESSEE
TEMPLE - 13 over Kent State
NOTRE DAME - 6 over Connecticut
Penn State - 3 over MICHIGAN STATE
MISSISSIPPI - 4 over Lsu
Kansas State + 16 over NEBRASKA
TEXAS TECH + 6 ½ over Oklahoma
Louisiana Tech + 10 over FRESNO STATE
NEW MEXICO + 4 ½ over Colorado State
ARIZONA + 6 over Oregon
Smu + 4 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS - 8 over Tulsa
FLORIDA - 45 over Florida International
TROY - 16 ½ over Florida Atlantic
UL Monroe - 2 over UL LAFAYETTE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 11 over Arkansas State
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: California + 7 over STANFORD - Stanford enters the "Big Game" with plenty of momentum following wins over Oregon and USC by a combined score 106-63, topping 50 points against each. Earlier Cal lost to both by a combined 72-6, dashing their hopes of a Rose Bowl season and once again disappointing those who seeming annually predict big things for the Cal program. But that's what makes rivalry games so special. The underdog, especially a talented one, generally has the greater motivation to either salvage their season or ruin their biggest foe's. Cal is without their best player, RB Best, but even in his absence defeated Rose Bowl contender Arizona last week. There are not too many negatives to cite about Stanford other than a letdown would not be a surprise following those two huge wins even against their most bitter of rivals. Cal has won 6 of the last 7 in the series (all as favorites) so Stanford will be motivated as well. Cal has a slightly better defense, especially against the run, the strength of Stanford's offense. Although an upset would not surprise , the call is for a close game, Stanford wins but by just 34-31.
Other Featured College Selections
Kentucky + 9 over GEORGIA - Both teams are 6-4 which represents a disappointing season for Georgia but a solid campaign for Kentucky. These teams have similar resumes including wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn and one sided losses to Florida. They are very similar statistically. On offense Kentucky has a better ground game while Georgia has been stronger through the air. Defensively Georgia is stronger against the run while Kentucky is better defending the pass. Georgia has dominated this series over the years but KY has been much more competitive of late, covering 2 of the last 3 with a straight up win. This is Georgia's weakest team since they were 8-4 in 2001. Kentucky is having a season similar to the last 3 seasons that have seen the Wildcats go to 3 straight Bowls. Both teams have traditional season ending games on deck and with these teams so evenly matched a close game should result. Georgia wins but by just 27-24.
BYU - 10 over Air Force - The Mountain West has unfolded pretty much as expected with TCU the clearly dominant team, followed by BYU and Utah and then a gap to Air Force and then a huge dropoff to the rest of the conference. BYU is 8-2 with one sided losses to TCU and Florida State, both of which have come on their home field. Air Force is enjoying a solid season and they gave TCU their toughest test, losing 20-17 at home despite being outgained by over 100 yards. The Force has played outstanding defense all season and value the football, losing just 7 turnovers all season. But BYU has dominated Air Force recently, winning 5 straight with each win by at least 14 points with an average score of 41-22. Even the past 2 seasons, when AF won 8 and 9 games, BYU defeated Air Force handily. There's too much of a talent edge for BYU. Air Force plays smartly and will hang tough for a while, but BYU ultimately creates distance. BYU wins 37-20.
HOUSTON - 24 over Memphis - Houston suffered only their second loss of the season last week and has a chance for a 10 win season with a win here and next week over Rice. The Cougars have fared well when stepping up in class this season with wins at Oklahoma State and Mississippi State and at home over Texas Tech. Memphis is 2-8 and fired coach West last week. His team responded with a flat effort in their final home game against UAB and it's hard to see the Tigers having any motivation as they play their final 2 games. Houston has a high powered, quick strike offense but their defense is very weak. But Memphis' offense has struggled all season to find consistency. The defense is allowing nearly 16 yards per completion, a sign of either poor positioning or poor tackling - or both! Memphis is 1-8 ATS - worst in the nation, clearly showing underachievement against expectations. Houston has the firepower to put points on the board and Memphis is likely to show little resistance. Once they fall behind they likely also lose interest. Houston wins 54-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinion)
BOWLING GREEN - 11 over Akron (Fri)
OHIO U Pick 'em over Northern Illinois
Wisconsin - 7 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA - 10 over Minnesota
Rutgers - 8 over SYRACUSE
INDIANA + 3 over Purdue
VIRGINIA TECH - 21 over North Carolina State
MISSOURI - 15 over Iowa State
Vanderbilt + 16 1/1 over TENNESSEE
TEMPLE - 13 over Kent State
NOTRE DAME - 6 over Connecticut
Penn State - 3 over MICHIGAN STATE
MISSISSIPPI - 4 over Lsu
Kansas State + 16 over NEBRASKA
TEXAS TECH + 6 ½ over Oklahoma
Louisiana Tech + 10 over FRESNO STATE
NEW MEXICO + 4 ½ over Colorado State
ARIZONA + 6 over Oregon
Smu + 4 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS - 8 over Tulsa
FLORIDA - 45 over Florida International
TROY - 16 ½ over Florida Atlantic
UL Monroe - 2 over UL LAFAYETTE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 11 over Arkansas State
Wunderdog Sports
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Air Force vs. BYU (NCAAF) - Nov 21, 2009 3:30 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 10/-103 Air Force Pick Title: Air Force at B Y U
The Cougars looked like a BCS contender when they shocked Oklahoma 14-13 in the season opener. The shine has come off as the Sooners proved to be a much lesser team than most anticipated, disappearing from the National Title picture themselves. BYU has feasted on a lot of cupcakes since, but were humiliated by the two teams that had a chance to give them a game. They suffered blowout losses to Florida State and TCU, allowing 92 points to those two teams. Now they must face an Air Force team with a great defense (#9 in the nation in points allowed) and an improving offense. Air Force took TCU to the wire before bowing 20-17. No one has scored more than 23 points on this team all season, not even TCU. The potent Horned Frogs offense (averaging 39 points per game) were held to 20 points by the Falcons - their second lowest total of the season! So, getting 10 points in this one is big. The Falcons' offense is coming on and they have the defense that is capable of holding down BYU's offense that has shown warts against top defenses. Air Force is quietly building a very respectable program under the radar. They are 22-11 ATS overall the past three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 2-11 ATS since last season in conference games and they are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games following a two-game road trip. BYU has the bigger name here, but maybe not the better team. Take the Academy plus the generous points.
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Air Force vs. BYU (NCAAF) - Nov 21, 2009 3:30 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 10/-103 Air Force Pick Title: Air Force at B Y U
The Cougars looked like a BCS contender when they shocked Oklahoma 14-13 in the season opener. The shine has come off as the Sooners proved to be a much lesser team than most anticipated, disappearing from the National Title picture themselves. BYU has feasted on a lot of cupcakes since, but were humiliated by the two teams that had a chance to give them a game. They suffered blowout losses to Florida State and TCU, allowing 92 points to those two teams. Now they must face an Air Force team with a great defense (#9 in the nation in points allowed) and an improving offense. Air Force took TCU to the wire before bowing 20-17. No one has scored more than 23 points on this team all season, not even TCU. The potent Horned Frogs offense (averaging 39 points per game) were held to 20 points by the Falcons - their second lowest total of the season! So, getting 10 points in this one is big. The Falcons' offense is coming on and they have the defense that is capable of holding down BYU's offense that has shown warts against top defenses. Air Force is quietly building a very respectable program under the radar. They are 22-11 ATS overall the past three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 2-11 ATS since last season in conference games and they are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games following a two-game road trip. BYU has the bigger name here, but maybe not the better team. Take the Academy plus the generous points.
SPORTS WAGERS
North Carolina St. +21 over Virginia Tech
For North Carolina State to be three touchdown underdogs in conference play this late in the season shows how far they have sunk from the days of Phillip Rivers and Co. The win over Pittsburgh seems like it happened years ago and the prospects of a bowl game have disappeared for the Wolfpack, as it’s up to head coach Tom O’Brien to motivate his players to compete in these last two games. O’Brien isn’t on the hot seat and similarly to last week’s Syracuse-Louisville game, the players who are coming back next season will have to play hard, decreasing the chances of a no-show. Virginia Tech can’t win the ACC and are going to settle for a mid-level bowl, which has to be considered a disappointment for the preseason favorite and dark horse National Title contender. With both teams going up against each other with very little but pride at stake, the statistics compiled thus far mean a lot more than games with extra motivators. The saving grace for North Carolina State has been the play of QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns, tops in the ACC, and 2534 yards with a 58% completion percentage. Wilson and RB Toney Baker have led North Carolina State to the ACC’s fourth best points per game mark at 32.6. Having an offense that can produce when getting 21 points is extremely important, as it leaves the door open for backdoor covers and shootouts where touchdowns are simply traded all game long. Virginia Tech will move the ball against the atrocious North Carolina State defense that gives up 31 points a game. Nevertheless, Va Tech is laying too many points to a potent offense. “Beamer Ball” calls for defense and special teams to score and if that’s how Virginia Tech is going to put points on the scoreboard this Saturday, one would have to feel confident in having a three touchdown cushion. Play: North Carolina State +21 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
California +7½ over STANFORD
You have to give all the respect to the Stanford Cardinal for what they have accomplished this season. After going 5-7 last season, Stanford is 7-3 thus far and is in great position to play in this years Rose Bowl. Jim Harbaugh has put his name among the elite in College Football and has his team playing at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Perhaps the most impressive feat of all was humiliating USC 55-21 on the road, a result so shocking that many observers dubbed an error upon first glance. Stanford’s victory was by far the biggest this decade and without a doubt the biggest win this season. California meanwhile is having a respectable season that had potential to be special if not for the loss of Javhid Best, who at the time of his injury was considered the leading Heisman Trophy candidate. California is coming off a big win over 18th ranked Arizona, completing a fourth quarter comeback to win 24-16. California quarterback Kevin Reilly has thrown 15 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions and RB Shane Vereen has filled in admirably for Best, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to keep California’s running game effective. There are really only two angles to play this game at; if you believe Stanford is for real and can play with giant targets on their backs, lay the points. Stanford hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001 and their players are competing in completely different conditions than they have ever played in. The number of teams who have had gigantic wins one week and then crashed the next are seemingly endless and I think Stanford will lay a giant egg playing as the hunted. I’ll play that angle and call the outright upset but will gladly take the points with a strong, trustworthy California team. Play: California +7½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
North Carolina St. +21 over Virginia Tech
For North Carolina State to be three touchdown underdogs in conference play this late in the season shows how far they have sunk from the days of Phillip Rivers and Co. The win over Pittsburgh seems like it happened years ago and the prospects of a bowl game have disappeared for the Wolfpack, as it’s up to head coach Tom O’Brien to motivate his players to compete in these last two games. O’Brien isn’t on the hot seat and similarly to last week’s Syracuse-Louisville game, the players who are coming back next season will have to play hard, decreasing the chances of a no-show. Virginia Tech can’t win the ACC and are going to settle for a mid-level bowl, which has to be considered a disappointment for the preseason favorite and dark horse National Title contender. With both teams going up against each other with very little but pride at stake, the statistics compiled thus far mean a lot more than games with extra motivators. The saving grace for North Carolina State has been the play of QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 26 touchdowns, tops in the ACC, and 2534 yards with a 58% completion percentage. Wilson and RB Toney Baker have led North Carolina State to the ACC’s fourth best points per game mark at 32.6. Having an offense that can produce when getting 21 points is extremely important, as it leaves the door open for backdoor covers and shootouts where touchdowns are simply traded all game long. Virginia Tech will move the ball against the atrocious North Carolina State defense that gives up 31 points a game. Nevertheless, Va Tech is laying too many points to a potent offense. “Beamer Ball” calls for defense and special teams to score and if that’s how Virginia Tech is going to put points on the scoreboard this Saturday, one would have to feel confident in having a three touchdown cushion. Play: North Carolina State +21 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
California +7½ over STANFORD
You have to give all the respect to the Stanford Cardinal for what they have accomplished this season. After going 5-7 last season, Stanford is 7-3 thus far and is in great position to play in this years Rose Bowl. Jim Harbaugh has put his name among the elite in College Football and has his team playing at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Perhaps the most impressive feat of all was humiliating USC 55-21 on the road, a result so shocking that many observers dubbed an error upon first glance. Stanford’s victory was by far the biggest this decade and without a doubt the biggest win this season. California meanwhile is having a respectable season that had potential to be special if not for the loss of Javhid Best, who at the time of his injury was considered the leading Heisman Trophy candidate. California is coming off a big win over 18th ranked Arizona, completing a fourth quarter comeback to win 24-16. California quarterback Kevin Reilly has thrown 15 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions and RB Shane Vereen has filled in admirably for Best, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to keep California’s running game effective. There are really only two angles to play this game at; if you believe Stanford is for real and can play with giant targets on their backs, lay the points. Stanford hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001 and their players are competing in completely different conditions than they have ever played in. The number of teams who have had gigantic wins one week and then crashed the next are seemingly endless and I think Stanford will lay a giant egg playing as the hunted. I’ll play that angle and call the outright upset but will gladly take the points with a strong, trustworthy California team. Play: California +7½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Nick Parsons 11/21/09 **CODE BLUE* GOY
TITLE: **CODE BLUE** 2009 BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR! REASON FOR PICK: For a number of different reasons I believe Nevada is going to absolutely stomp New Mexico State as it pushes to remain perfect and to erase a big upset loss from last year:
Nevada won't "look past" New Mexico State to its game against Boise State next week because the Aggies upset the Wolf Pack 48-45 in Reno last season, giving New Mexico State its first -- and only -- road win in WAC play since joining the league in 2005.
Coach Chris Ault's comments on his teams game plan; "We better not look past it. We're not that good. We have to focus on what we're trying to do, how we're trying to get things done and take care of business." Spoken like a true motivator.
The Wolf Pack has scored at least 35 points in six of their last 7 games and has won seven straight.
Their top two rushers (RB, Vai Taua and QB, Colin Kaepernick) have both rushed for over 100 yards, and both average better than 7.8 yards per rush.
Nevada is 5-2 ATS its last seven and 4-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.
Over the last two weeks, the Wolf Pack has outscored its opponents 114 to 21.
On the other side of the field: New Mexico State is 2-3-1 ATS its last six overall.
The Aggies defensive line and secondary is going to be overwhelmed by Nevada's running game, just like everyone else has this season.
RB Seth Smith, nursing a shoulder injury suffered Oct. 31 at Ohio State, had just five carries last week at Hawaii and his status this week against Nevada is unclear.
Bottom line: New Mexico State's offense has not scored an offensive TD in four plus games.
The Aggies just finished preparing for and playing against pass happy Hawaii, and will now struggle having to deal with the exact opposite in the Wolf Packs run oriented offense.
With revenge on their mind from last years upset loss and wanting to come into their game vs. Boise State firing on all cylinders, look for NEVADA to rout the Aggies and move to 6-3 ATS their last nine as a favorite and for New Mexico State to fall to 2-4 ATS against conference opponents.
*10*
TITLE: **CODE BLUE** 2009 BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR! REASON FOR PICK: For a number of different reasons I believe Nevada is going to absolutely stomp New Mexico State as it pushes to remain perfect and to erase a big upset loss from last year:
Nevada won't "look past" New Mexico State to its game against Boise State next week because the Aggies upset the Wolf Pack 48-45 in Reno last season, giving New Mexico State its first -- and only -- road win in WAC play since joining the league in 2005.
Coach Chris Ault's comments on his teams game plan; "We better not look past it. We're not that good. We have to focus on what we're trying to do, how we're trying to get things done and take care of business." Spoken like a true motivator.
The Wolf Pack has scored at least 35 points in six of their last 7 games and has won seven straight.
Their top two rushers (RB, Vai Taua and QB, Colin Kaepernick) have both rushed for over 100 yards, and both average better than 7.8 yards per rush.
Nevada is 5-2 ATS its last seven and 4-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.
Over the last two weeks, the Wolf Pack has outscored its opponents 114 to 21.
On the other side of the field: New Mexico State is 2-3-1 ATS its last six overall.
The Aggies defensive line and secondary is going to be overwhelmed by Nevada's running game, just like everyone else has this season.
RB Seth Smith, nursing a shoulder injury suffered Oct. 31 at Ohio State, had just five carries last week at Hawaii and his status this week against Nevada is unclear.
Bottom line: New Mexico State's offense has not scored an offensive TD in four plus games.
The Aggies just finished preparing for and playing against pass happy Hawaii, and will now struggle having to deal with the exact opposite in the Wolf Packs run oriented offense.
With revenge on their mind from last years upset loss and wanting to come into their game vs. Boise State firing on all cylinders, look for NEVADA to rout the Aggies and move to 6-3 ATS their last nine as a favorite and for New Mexico State to fall to 2-4 ATS against conference opponents.
*10*
Larry Ness' 10* LEGEND Play (13-4 s/'05)
REASON FOR PICK: Texas A&M took a streak of 20 consecutive non-losing seasons into Franchione's first year at College Station (2003). In his five years at this proud program, Coach Fran's best season was a 9-4 finish in 2006 (lost Holiday Bowl 45-10 to Cal to end that year!) and he had two losing years. The man he replaced, RC Slocum went 123-47-2 over seasons, with ZERO losing seasons! Mike Sherman, who spent six years as Green Bay's head coach going 57-39 with four playoff trips, took over last year with A&M finishing at 4-8. The current team is 5-5 and with Texas coming to town on Thanksgiving, the Aggies better get that important sixth win of the season Saturday vs Baylor. As for the Bears, expectations going into "Year 2" of the Art Briles era were high, with Robert Griffin at QB (15-3 ratio last season). However, Griffin was lost for the season with a knee injury in the team's third game (home to Northwestern St), with Griffin having completed 65.2 percent of his passes with a 4-0 ratio. Baylor would improve to 3-1 with a win at Kent State on October 3 but new starting QB Nick Florence doesn't have anywhere near the versatility that Griffin possessed. Baylor is 2-5 under Florence (4-6 on the season), who has completed 61.3 percent of his passes in the eight games he has played (seven starts) but has thrown just has six TDs against seven INTs on the year. He had 427 yards and three TDs in the team's 40-32 upset (Baylor was a two-TD underdog) at Missouri on November 7 but turned around and threw three iNTs in last Saturday's 47-14 loss at Texas. Baylor entered this season as the Big 12's worst team, sporting a 13-91 conference mark (.125) since 1996. Baylor's Big 12 woes are well documented. The team ended a 29-game conference losing streak in 2002 and after losing its first 37 conference road games, finally won 23-13 at Iowa St in 2005. Let's fast forward to the current season and we find that Baylor has gone 3-52 (.055) all-time in Big 12 road games. While one of those wins came just recently at Missouri, the Bears have run for 44.3 YPG (2.0 YPC) in their three big 12 road games this year, while the defense has allowed 29.7 PPG. Baylor has played at A&M every odd-year since the league's inception (1996), visiting College Station six times (this will be the 7th) while losing each game by an average score of 37.0-to-11.0 PPG! As mentioned earlier, the Aggies NEED this win to become bowl eligible and A&M is surely not expecting to upset Texas on Thanksgiving night. So how have the Aggies played at home this year? They are 4-1 SU, losing only 36-31 to Oklahoma State. The Aggies have displayed a powerhouse rushing attack in College Station this year, averaging 221.6 YPG (4.8 YPC) while scoring 40.2 PPG. In the team's four wins, those averages go up to 249.8 YPG and 42.5 PPG. QB Jerrod Johnson has been among the nation's leaders all season in total offense (currently ranks 6th at 299.7 YPG) and for the year the junior has completed 58.3 percent of his pasees with 22 TDs and just five INTs. Note that in A&M's five home games, Johnson has thrown for an average of 293.6 YPG with 15 TD passes and not a SINGLE interception. LEGEND Play on Texas A&M (10*)
REASON FOR PICK: Texas A&M took a streak of 20 consecutive non-losing seasons into Franchione's first year at College Station (2003). In his five years at this proud program, Coach Fran's best season was a 9-4 finish in 2006 (lost Holiday Bowl 45-10 to Cal to end that year!) and he had two losing years. The man he replaced, RC Slocum went 123-47-2 over seasons, with ZERO losing seasons! Mike Sherman, who spent six years as Green Bay's head coach going 57-39 with four playoff trips, took over last year with A&M finishing at 4-8. The current team is 5-5 and with Texas coming to town on Thanksgiving, the Aggies better get that important sixth win of the season Saturday vs Baylor. As for the Bears, expectations going into "Year 2" of the Art Briles era were high, with Robert Griffin at QB (15-3 ratio last season). However, Griffin was lost for the season with a knee injury in the team's third game (home to Northwestern St), with Griffin having completed 65.2 percent of his passes with a 4-0 ratio. Baylor would improve to 3-1 with a win at Kent State on October 3 but new starting QB Nick Florence doesn't have anywhere near the versatility that Griffin possessed. Baylor is 2-5 under Florence (4-6 on the season), who has completed 61.3 percent of his passes in the eight games he has played (seven starts) but has thrown just has six TDs against seven INTs on the year. He had 427 yards and three TDs in the team's 40-32 upset (Baylor was a two-TD underdog) at Missouri on November 7 but turned around and threw three iNTs in last Saturday's 47-14 loss at Texas. Baylor entered this season as the Big 12's worst team, sporting a 13-91 conference mark (.125) since 1996. Baylor's Big 12 woes are well documented. The team ended a 29-game conference losing streak in 2002 and after losing its first 37 conference road games, finally won 23-13 at Iowa St in 2005. Let's fast forward to the current season and we find that Baylor has gone 3-52 (.055) all-time in Big 12 road games. While one of those wins came just recently at Missouri, the Bears have run for 44.3 YPG (2.0 YPC) in their three big 12 road games this year, while the defense has allowed 29.7 PPG. Baylor has played at A&M every odd-year since the league's inception (1996), visiting College Station six times (this will be the 7th) while losing each game by an average score of 37.0-to-11.0 PPG! As mentioned earlier, the Aggies NEED this win to become bowl eligible and A&M is surely not expecting to upset Texas on Thanksgiving night. So how have the Aggies played at home this year? They are 4-1 SU, losing only 36-31 to Oklahoma State. The Aggies have displayed a powerhouse rushing attack in College Station this year, averaging 221.6 YPG (4.8 YPC) while scoring 40.2 PPG. In the team's four wins, those averages go up to 249.8 YPG and 42.5 PPG. QB Jerrod Johnson has been among the nation's leaders all season in total offense (currently ranks 6th at 299.7 YPG) and for the year the junior has completed 58.3 percent of his pasees with 22 TDs and just five INTs. Note that in A&M's five home games, Johnson has thrown for an average of 293.6 YPG with 15 TD passes and not a SINGLE interception. LEGEND Play on Texas A&M (10*)
SATURDAY NCAAF System Club Play -GC
On Saturday the College Football System Club play is on La.Tech. Game 375 at 5:00 eastern. The Bulldogs are traveling to Freso.St today in their last road game of the season. They have had much success covering the last 4 times as a visitor and the last 5 times overall in the series. La.Tech was last seen giving LSU a big scare as a 22 point dog. LSU managed to hold off Tech with a late rally 24-16. The Bull dogs have played a tougher schedule this year than Fresno.St hence the losing record. Before losing to LSU they lost at home to a solid Boise.ST team by again covering a big number. La. Tech has covered 8 of 10 times against winning teams over the past few years.
Fresno.St the other Bull dog in this game is just 3-10 ats at home recently and is playing with out running back Mathews. Fresno.St is a horrible 1-14 ats off a straight up and ats loss. Last week they were blown out by Nevada 52-14.Back in 2005 a very similar Fresno team was beat at home by La.Tech 40-28 as a 24 point favorite. While were not calling for the upset here,it is a distinct possibility the way La.Tech has been playing. In late phone action we are piping hot cashing 8 of the last 10 college football plays and are on a solid 21-8 run on al plays. On Saturday I have the Big Blowout system side which is 8-3 on the year. A big Dog play that can win the game outright and the WAC Goy. There will also be NBA system plays and a solid 93% college hoops Power Angle play. Don't miss out on any of today's Cutting Edge system plays. All games with complete analysis.Most games are late afternoon/evening games. For the System Club Play take La.Tech plus the points in the battle of the Bulldogs. BOL GC-
On Saturday the College Football System Club play is on La.Tech. Game 375 at 5:00 eastern. The Bulldogs are traveling to Freso.St today in their last road game of the season. They have had much success covering the last 4 times as a visitor and the last 5 times overall in the series. La.Tech was last seen giving LSU a big scare as a 22 point dog. LSU managed to hold off Tech with a late rally 24-16. The Bull dogs have played a tougher schedule this year than Fresno.St hence the losing record. Before losing to LSU they lost at home to a solid Boise.ST team by again covering a big number. La. Tech has covered 8 of 10 times against winning teams over the past few years.
Fresno.St the other Bull dog in this game is just 3-10 ats at home recently and is playing with out running back Mathews. Fresno.St is a horrible 1-14 ats off a straight up and ats loss. Last week they were blown out by Nevada 52-14.Back in 2005 a very similar Fresno team was beat at home by La.Tech 40-28 as a 24 point favorite. While were not calling for the upset here,it is a distinct possibility the way La.Tech has been playing. In late phone action we are piping hot cashing 8 of the last 10 college football plays and are on a solid 21-8 run on al plays. On Saturday I have the Big Blowout system side which is 8-3 on the year. A big Dog play that can win the game outright and the WAC Goy. There will also be NBA system plays and a solid 93% college hoops Power Angle play. Don't miss out on any of today's Cutting Edge system plays. All games with complete analysis.Most games are late afternoon/evening games. For the System Club Play take La.Tech plus the points in the battle of the Bulldogs. BOL GC-
BRANDON LANG
Saturday's Selections ... 25 DIME - RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS - This game today is about 2 teams heading in opposite directions and heading there fast.
Let me first talk about Rutgers, and just how good Greg Schiano has this team playing right now.
They come off a complete and utter domination of South Florida at home 31-0 in a game the Scarlet Knights defense that forced 4 turnovers, held them to 159 yards total offense including just 30 yards on the ground.
Now this Rutgers defense steps way down in class to take on a Syracuse team that has not only the 95th ranked rush offense in the country but the 110th ranked overall.
In other words folks, there are only 9 teams in all of division 1A with a worse offense than Syracuse.
Allow me to put this into it's proper prospective for you.
When you can't run the football and you are forced to throw, and the defense knows you are gonna throw, turnovers are going to happen and they are going to happen in bunches.
Of their 4 road games this year, Rutgers has beaten Maryland 34-13 forcing 5 turnovers, beat Army 27-10 forcing 3 turnovers, beat Uconn 28-24 forcing 4 turnovers.
This does not bode well for a Syracuse team that has turned it over 25 times facing a Rutgers team that is 2nd in the nation at forcing turnovers getting 29 of them.
Only Ohio has forced more and it's just one more at 30.
The Orangemen are seeing the wrong team at the wrong time. Nothing more and nothing less, and just like Maryland and Army before them, they will lose this game by 17 points or more.
Unlike Syracuse, which can't get out of it's own way, Rutgers has suffered 2 losses this year and they just happen to be against the two teams battling for the Big East championship in Pitt and Cincinnati.
If a former point guard from Duke, or his back up a redshirt freshman play well enough against this Rutgers defense to keep this game within single digits, then I will take my hat off to them, take my loss like a man and move on.
For my money, I say they can't. End of story.
10 DIME - STANFORD CARDINAL - There is no stopping Stanford right now.
And it sure isn't going to be Cal coming anywhere close to shutting them down with their 71st overall defense in college football.
The last 2 weeks have shown me that Stanford is playing at a level unmatched in the history of their school, and I am talking about the days of John Elway included.
You start putting up over 50 back-to- back weeks on the likes of Oregon with the 22nd best defense, and USC on the road with their 48th best defense, trust me when I tell you things have really clicked.
Let me take this one step further.
At home Stanford has won by margins of 25 over San Jose State, 20 over Washington, 8 over Ucla, 19 over Arizona St, and 9 over Oregon.
What is even more impressive is against the 15th overall defense in the country in Arizona State they scored 33, against the 22nd best defense in the country in Oregon they put up 51, and against the 49th best in USC they put up 55.
If you think it has anything to do with being at home, let me point out they went on the road versus the 18th best defense in Arizona and put up 38 and at Oregon State against the 58th best defense they put up 28.
Cal comes in with the 71st overall defense in the country. Somebody please say, "Watch out below!!!!!!!"
Of all the defenses in the Pac-10 Stanford has faced this year, Cal has the worst. Juggle that around in your head for a minute...you have time.
One last point. At the end of the USC game last week Stanford scored to make it 53-21 and Jim Harbaugh went for 2 to stuff it in Pete Carroll's face due to the fact in recruiting circles Carroll has been telling players being recruited by both USC and Stanford, "Why do you want to go there, we beat them everytime."
Well, ask Jim Harbaugh what you think of him now.
If Harbaugh did that to USC, what do you think he is going to do to his arch-rival Cal in a game that for one of the few times has the superior team.
You do the math. Stanford beats USC and Oregon by a combined score of 106-63. Cal lost to those two schools by a combined score of 72-6, and they have to face Stanford without star tailback Jahvid Best.
Are you ready for the river card? The ace on the river? The flush on the river? The full house on the river?
Stanford is going for their 12th straight home cover which is the best mark in the entire country, and I see nothing that leads me to believe they won't win this game by double digits as well.
5 DIME - ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS - So let me get this straight.
I have the 102nd ranked run defense in the entire country who in their 5 home games this year allowed almost 1,000 yards rushing to shut down Army's option attack?
A defense that in their last 2 home games versus the 30th, and 38th ranked rushing attacks in UL Monroe, and Western Kentucky they allowed 281 and 172 yards respectively.
Now they take on a rush offense ranked 16 spots better at Army at 14th in the country.
The bottom line is a 2-8 team shouldn't be favored over a service academy any time anywhere.
I mean, Army knocked off an SEC school earlier this year in Vandy for crying out loud so that right there shows you what this team is capable of.
Furthermore, this could be a home game for Army as 18 kids on their roster are from the state of Texas and you don't think there is some magic going on here.
Army has covered 8 in a row in the Lonestar State. I'm talking about 8 in a row.
I have no problem grabbing any kind of points in a game I feel Army can win outright. Simple as that.
FREE SELECTION - KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Saturday's Selections ... 25 DIME - RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS - This game today is about 2 teams heading in opposite directions and heading there fast.
Let me first talk about Rutgers, and just how good Greg Schiano has this team playing right now.
They come off a complete and utter domination of South Florida at home 31-0 in a game the Scarlet Knights defense that forced 4 turnovers, held them to 159 yards total offense including just 30 yards on the ground.
Now this Rutgers defense steps way down in class to take on a Syracuse team that has not only the 95th ranked rush offense in the country but the 110th ranked overall.
In other words folks, there are only 9 teams in all of division 1A with a worse offense than Syracuse.
Allow me to put this into it's proper prospective for you.
When you can't run the football and you are forced to throw, and the defense knows you are gonna throw, turnovers are going to happen and they are going to happen in bunches.
Of their 4 road games this year, Rutgers has beaten Maryland 34-13 forcing 5 turnovers, beat Army 27-10 forcing 3 turnovers, beat Uconn 28-24 forcing 4 turnovers.
This does not bode well for a Syracuse team that has turned it over 25 times facing a Rutgers team that is 2nd in the nation at forcing turnovers getting 29 of them.
Only Ohio has forced more and it's just one more at 30.
The Orangemen are seeing the wrong team at the wrong time. Nothing more and nothing less, and just like Maryland and Army before them, they will lose this game by 17 points or more.
Unlike Syracuse, which can't get out of it's own way, Rutgers has suffered 2 losses this year and they just happen to be against the two teams battling for the Big East championship in Pitt and Cincinnati.
If a former point guard from Duke, or his back up a redshirt freshman play well enough against this Rutgers defense to keep this game within single digits, then I will take my hat off to them, take my loss like a man and move on.
For my money, I say they can't. End of story.
10 DIME - STANFORD CARDINAL - There is no stopping Stanford right now.
And it sure isn't going to be Cal coming anywhere close to shutting them down with their 71st overall defense in college football.
The last 2 weeks have shown me that Stanford is playing at a level unmatched in the history of their school, and I am talking about the days of John Elway included.
You start putting up over 50 back-to- back weeks on the likes of Oregon with the 22nd best defense, and USC on the road with their 48th best defense, trust me when I tell you things have really clicked.
Let me take this one step further.
At home Stanford has won by margins of 25 over San Jose State, 20 over Washington, 8 over Ucla, 19 over Arizona St, and 9 over Oregon.
What is even more impressive is against the 15th overall defense in the country in Arizona State they scored 33, against the 22nd best defense in the country in Oregon they put up 51, and against the 49th best in USC they put up 55.
If you think it has anything to do with being at home, let me point out they went on the road versus the 18th best defense in Arizona and put up 38 and at Oregon State against the 58th best defense they put up 28.
Cal comes in with the 71st overall defense in the country. Somebody please say, "Watch out below!!!!!!!"
Of all the defenses in the Pac-10 Stanford has faced this year, Cal has the worst. Juggle that around in your head for a minute...you have time.
One last point. At the end of the USC game last week Stanford scored to make it 53-21 and Jim Harbaugh went for 2 to stuff it in Pete Carroll's face due to the fact in recruiting circles Carroll has been telling players being recruited by both USC and Stanford, "Why do you want to go there, we beat them everytime."
Well, ask Jim Harbaugh what you think of him now.
If Harbaugh did that to USC, what do you think he is going to do to his arch-rival Cal in a game that for one of the few times has the superior team.
You do the math. Stanford beats USC and Oregon by a combined score of 106-63. Cal lost to those two schools by a combined score of 72-6, and they have to face Stanford without star tailback Jahvid Best.
Are you ready for the river card? The ace on the river? The flush on the river? The full house on the river?
Stanford is going for their 12th straight home cover which is the best mark in the entire country, and I see nothing that leads me to believe they won't win this game by double digits as well.
5 DIME - ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS - So let me get this straight.
I have the 102nd ranked run defense in the entire country who in their 5 home games this year allowed almost 1,000 yards rushing to shut down Army's option attack?
A defense that in their last 2 home games versus the 30th, and 38th ranked rushing attacks in UL Monroe, and Western Kentucky they allowed 281 and 172 yards respectively.
Now they take on a rush offense ranked 16 spots better at Army at 14th in the country.
The bottom line is a 2-8 team shouldn't be favored over a service academy any time anywhere.
I mean, Army knocked off an SEC school earlier this year in Vandy for crying out loud so that right there shows you what this team is capable of.
Furthermore, this could be a home game for Army as 18 kids on their roster are from the state of Texas and you don't think there is some magic going on here.
Army has covered 8 in a row in the Lonestar State. I'm talking about 8 in a row.
I have no problem grabbing any kind of points in a game I feel Army can win outright. Simple as that.
FREE SELECTION - KENTUCKY WILDCATS
