Statsystems report 11/13
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/13
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- CFB *****
• AMAZING SITUATIONAL TRENDS
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--GEORGIA TECH HC Paul Johnson sports a super-solid 27-13-2 ATS career mark as a dog, including 13-3 ATS against an opponent off an ATS loss. Better yet, against these same foes he is 10-1 ATS when taking single digits, including an astonishing 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS against sub .700 opposition.
Meanwhile, on the flip side, the Canes field General Randy Shannon checks in 15-15 SU and 10-20 ATS in conference play, including 6-18 ATS as a favorite and 1-10 ATS when laying points against sub .600 opposition…To make matters worse for Shannon and company, not only is Paul Johnson a ‘super dog’, he is 14-3 straight up at home since taking over the Georgia Tech reigns and his Yellow Jackets are 4-1 SU and ATS versus Miami since 2005.
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*** SATURDAY'S QUICK HITS ***
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--Virginia beat Maryland last three years (20-9/31-0/18-17); underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games. Terps lost five of last six visits to Virginia- they've had two INTs in five of last six games, but are 1-3 on road, with only win 24-21 at 4-5 BC. Virginia is 2-5 vs I-A opponents, winning last two at home; they scored 48 points last week, but lost at Duke. Five of last six Virginia games went over the total.
--Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Ga Tech-Miami games; Jackets won four of last five in series, winning 41-23/30-23 in last two played at home. Tech is 2-1 as dog this year; they lost last two games, completing only 8-29 passes. Miami is 1-3 vs spread in last four games as a favorite; they won three of last four road games, but this is the first road start for freshman QB. Single digit home underdogs are 3-6 in ACC this year.
--Underdog won SU in last five Iowa-Northwestern games, with Wildcats winning four of those five games; three of Hawkeyes' last five visits to Evanston were decided by 1 or 2 points. Northwestern is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, 0-2 as underdog, losing 35-27/35-21 as a dog. Iowa won five of last six games, but Indiana dropped winning TD pass in end zone in last minute last week. Big 11 home dogs are 8-5 vs spread.
--Clemson lost five of last six visits to Florida State, with all five losses by 14+ points; 5-4 Tigers are 0-3 on road this year, with all three losses by six or less points- they're 1-2 as an underdog. Seminoles lost last couple games by 4-2 points, getting outscored 37-10 in second half; they failed to cover last three tries as the favorite. Under is 7-0-1 in Clemson games this season. ACC single digit home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.
--Texas A&M is 11-2 in last 13 games vs Baylor; favorites covered last four series games. Aggies won/covered last three games, scoring average of 41 ppg (won by 35-18-14 points)- they're 3-2 as favorite. Baylor won five of last seven games, scoring 43.7 ppg in its three home wins vs I-A opponents, but Bears are just 1-3 as underdog. Big 12 home underdogs of 7 or less points are just 4-7 against the spread this season.
--First place is on line in Gainesville, where South Carolina is 1-4 against spread in last five visits; they're 1-12 in last 13 games vs Florida, with 10 of those 12 losses by 10+ points. Gamecocks' losses this year are by 8-3-21 points. Gators lost last two home games (LSU/Miss State); they're 2-3 as home favorite. Single digit home favorites are 9-4 vs spread in SEC games this year. Five of Carolina's last six games went over total.
--Last home game for 4-5 Notre Dame team that lost last two games; they are 1-1 as underdog this year. Three of their five losses are by 4 or less points. Utah is 6-1-1 as a favorite this year, but they got waxed 47-7 at home by unbeaten TCU last week. Over is 5-2 in Utah's last seven tilts. Irish allowed 589 rushing yards in last two games. MWC faves are 8-3 in non-conference games, 4-2 on road.
--Lot of off-field distractions for Auburn team that lost last four games vs Georgia by 7-4-25-22 points; 10-0 Tigers are 5-1 vs spread in SEC play, but only two of their six league wins are by more than 8 points. Georgia is only 5-5, but only two of the five were by more than 7 points. Dawgs are scoring 37.2 ppg vs I-A opponents since WR Green became eligible. Auburn has 300+ rushing yards in last five games vs I-A opponents.
--Trap game for high-powered Oregon squad that lost last three visits here; Ducks' 42-3 win LY was just their second in last six games vs Cal, but Bears are 3-4 in last seven games, with three losses by 21+ points- they are using backup QB who is junior, so not great prospect. Seven of eight Oregon games went over the total. Oregon is 4-0 on road, with wins by 48-13/42-31/43-23/53-32. Pac-10 double digit home dogs are 4-1-1.
--Stanford won last four games, scoring 39.5 ppg; they're 5-2 vs spread as a favorite, 3-0 on road, winning on foreign soil by 35-0/37-14/41-0, but Cardinal lost last four visits to Tempe. Last four series games were all decided by 19+ points. Arizona State is 4-1-1 vs spread as an underdog; their losses this season are by 1-11-3-33-1 point. Pac-10 home dogs are 6-4-1. Four of last five Cardinal games went over the total.
--Texas is a mess, losing three in row, five of last six games; they allowed 32.3 ppg in last three games, and were down 39-0 at one point to KState last week. All five Texas losses this year are by 7+ points. Oklahoma St. covered four of last five games; they're 3-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorite, with wins by 26-17-10 points. Big 12 home underdogs of less than seven points are 4-7 against the spread this season.
--Virginia Tech won five of last six games vs North Carolina, losing LY as 15-point home favorites; Hokies won last seven games (6-1 vs spread), are 4-1 as home faves this season. North Carolina won six of last seven games, winning as 10-point dogs at Florida State last week after trailing I-AA WmMary in 4th quarter week before that. Single digit ACC home underdogs are 3-6 against the spread.
--USC is 7-1 in last eight games vs Arizona, winning last four visits here; Trojans are just 2-3 in last five games, allowing 32+ points in four of the five- they're 3-1 on road (lost 37-35 at Stanford), with underdog covering three of those four games. Arizona was awful in 42-17 loss at Stanford last week; they covered only one of last five games as a favorite. Four of last five Wildcat games went over total.
*** REST OF THE CARD ***
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-- Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven Cincinnati-West Virginia games; last three games were decided by 5 or less points. Bearcats won last two meetings, 24-21/26-23. West Virginia lost its last two games.
-- Central Florida won its last five games, scoring 41.4 ppg; they're 7-0 vs spread in last seven games, 3-1 as home fave this year. Southern Miss scored 41+ points in each of last five games (3-2, average total 75.8).
-- Rutgers is 5-3 in its last eight games vs Syracuse; all eight games were decided by 10+ points. Six of Knights' last seven games were decided by 5 or less points. Syracuse won last three road games, allowing 10 ppg.
-- Duke scored 34-55 points in winning last two games after 1-6 start; average total in their last three games is 73. BC has 12 takeaways in last four games (+6)- they allowed 10-13 points in winning last two games.
-- Michigan lost three of last four games (won 67-65 in OT last week); they failed to cover last four games as favorite. Purdue lost its last three games by total of 127-23. Five of last six Wolverine games went over.
-- Underdogs are 8-0 vs spread in Wisconsin games this year; Badgers are 0-6 as a favorite, with no wins by more than 20 poiunts. Indiana lost last two road games 38-10/43-13. Big 11 home faves of 11+ points are 4-2.
-- Illinois scored 43-44-65 points in last three games; their last three wins are all by 20+ points (2-1 as home fave). Minnesota lost last nine games, losing last two games 52-10/31-8. Over is 4-1 in last five Illini games.
-- Wake Forest lost last seven games (2-5 vs spread); they're 0-4 as road underdog this year, losing by 44-31-31-48 points. NC State's last three games were all decided by 4 or less points, or in OT.
-- Oklahoma lost two of last three games, but won last two home games by 52-0/43-10 scores. Texas Tech is 1-3 vs spread this year in the game following a win. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.
-- Former Husker QB Turner Gill returns to Lincoln with Kansas squad that is 3-4 as underdog this year- they were losing 45-17 in 4th quarter last week, but rallied to win. Huskers are 5-3 as favorite, 2-2 at home.
-- Kentucky is 10-3 in last 13 games vs Vanderbilt, but last five wins in series were by 12 or less points. Vandy lost last four games by average score of 42-9. Favorite is 7-2 vs spread in Kentucky's 2010 games.
-- Alabama beat Mississippi State last two years, 31-3/32-7; Tide is 3-1 as home favorite this year, but 2-4 vs spread last six games. Miss State won last six games; their only losses? 17-14 to Auburn, 29-7 at LSU.
-- Colorado fired its coach this week; his son is the QB. Home side won last six Colorado-Iowa St games. Cyclones lost last four visits to Boulder by 4-17-5-34 points. 5-5 Iowa State is bowl eligible if they win here.
-- Western Michigan is 2-5 in last seven games, but wins were by 29-46 points; they're 1-1 as fave this year. Eastern Michigan is 1-6 vs spread in last seven games. Double digit MAC home favorites are 5-9 vs spread.
|-- Army is 3-1 on road; they lost rivalry game to Air Force last week, is playing Notre Dame in NYC next week. Kent St. is 1-3 as an underdog. MAC underdogs are 16-20 in non-conference games, 4-4 at home.
-- BYU is 0-4 on road, with all four losses by 15+ points; they won last three visits here by 3-21-10 points. Colorado State covered six of its last seven games. MWC single digit home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.
-- Arkansas scored 42.8 ppg in last four games (3-1); they're 3-1 when a favorite this year. UTEP is 1-3 as an underdog this season. SEC non-conference home faves are 11-9 vs spread. C-USA road dogs are 7-8.
-- Marshall won its last two games, allowing 14.5 ppg, but only one of its three wins is by more than 4 points. Memphis is horrible, losing last five games by average score of 50-11. C-USA home faves are 13-7-1.
-- Navy won 76-35 at East Carolina last week; they're 2-3 as favorite in '10. MAC road dogs are 12-16 vs spread out of conference. Four of last five Navy games went over total. Central Michigan covered only one of its last six games (2-2 as underdog this year).
-- Rice won four of last six games vs Tulane, winning 28-20/42-17 in last two meetings, but Owls lost 41-14/64-27 in last two games; they're 1-2 as road dog this year. Tulane lost four of its last five games.
-- Missouri lost last two games, scoring 17 in both games; they're 2-1 as home fave this season. K-State's three losses this year are by 35-5-10 points (2-2 as a dog). Four of last five Mizzou games stayed under total.
-- Favorite is 8-4 vs spread in last 12 Penn St-Ohio St games; Penn State lost games by 21-21-20 points this year (1-2 as dog, 0-2 on road). Ohio State is 7-2 vs spread this year. Last four PSU games went over total.
-- Home side won all seven South Florida-Louisville games; Bulls lost all three visits here, by 24-20/31-8/41-9 scores. USF was held to 14 points or less in its three losses. Louisville is 3-0 as a favorite this season.
-- TCU won its last six games (4-1 vs spread in last five) by average of 39-4. San Diego State is 7-2, 2-0 as dog; their losses are both by three points (@ Mizzou, @ BYU). Six of last seven Aztec games went under.
-- New Mexico is 0-4 as road dog this year, losing by 43-9 average score. Air Force lost three of last four games (played TCU-Utah-Army in last three games); they're only 1-4 vs spread as a favorite this season.
-- Louisiana Tech lost its three road games by 32-20-29 points; they are 2-6 vs I-A foes, winning by 18-13 points. Six of eight Tech games went over the total. New Mexico State covered its last four games.
-- Washington State is 0-9 vs I-A teams, but covered five of last six, with only one loss by more than 20 points. Oregon State is 4-4, with one win by more than 7 points. Over is 6-2 in Beavers' games this season.
-- Ole Miss ran for 359 yards in 42-17 win over Tennessee LY; Rebels lost last three SEC games, allowing 37 ppg. Vols are 0-5 in SEC games, scoring 15.8 ppg. Seven of last eight Tennessee games went over total.
-- San Jose State is 0-7 vs I-A opponents, losing 48-0/33-18 in its home games. Utah State has two wins but is 0-5 of they score less than 27 pts. Five of last six Aggie games stayed under the total.
-- Houston beat Tulsa 46-45/70-30 last two years, but Cougars are using 3rd-string QB now- they're 2-3 in last five games, allowing 47-34-40 in losses. Tulsa won its last three games, covered its last five.
-- Nevada beat Fresno State last two years, 52-14/41-28; win at Fresno was their first in last five visits here. Wolf Pack covered one of last five as favorite. Bulldogs won last three games, scoring 33-33-40 points.
-- Wyoming lost as road favorite at woeful New Mexico last week. Now visits banged-up UNLV squad that lost last five games by average score of 48-12. Cowboys lost last five games by average score of 36-19.
-- Arkansas State won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread); they are 3-0 as favorites this year, winning those games by 14-5-21 points. Last three ASU games went over. WKU covered last four as an underdog.
-- Underdogs are 8-0 vs spread in Troy games this year; Trojans are 0-6 as favorites, 0-3 at home, winning at home by 3-7-7 points. FIU is 3-1 in its last four games; they're 1-2 as a road underdog this season.
-- North Texas lost four of last five games; they're 2-1-1 as road dog this year. Middle Tennessee is 2-5 vs I-A teams, 2-3 as favorite, winning by 20-28 points. Six of seven MTSU games stayed under the total.
-- FAU allowed 12.5 ppg in winning its last two games; they're 0-2 this season as a favorite. ULL lost last five games, but covered last three as an underdog. Five of last seven FAU games stayed under total.
-- LSU beat Alabama last week, has Ole Miss/Arkansas on deck; Miles' teams play to level of opponent (led I-AA McNeese State 16-10 at half) so likely to take it easy on UL-Monroe squad that covered three of last four as an underdog, but did lose 52-3 at Auburn in early October.
