DAVID MALINSKY
4* ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 47.5
Scoring is up significantly in the SEC this autumn, which is what happens when you have explosive talents like Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett, and defenses that are not quite as good as recent seasons. And when scoring is up, Totals get raised. Hence, why an Alabama/Mississippi State matchup is now priced at 47.5, instead of LY’s 43.5, a game that only fell 34. But while the overall league scoring is an across the board issue in terms of setting Totals, it does not impact this matchup.
A little over a year ago we wrote an NCAA ”VERITIES & BALDERDASH” column about the positive things that Dan Mullen was going at Mississippi State, focusing on developing the talent on hand first, and getting in his full playbook second. His Bulldogs ran the ball, worked the field position, and played hard on defense in order to compete. And in Year #2 it is no different. Yes, he tried to open up in that first league contest vs. Auburn, putting the ball in the air 35 times, but the passing game was a failure, and they fell 17-14 in Starkville. He learned his lesson there – since then in four SEC games it has been 176 runs vs. only 60 passes, and in his two tries as a conference road dog it has been 93 runs to just 27 passes. Naturally these ratio’s keep the game tempos and the scores down, and the five State SEC games have played to a 32.2 average, more than two full TD’s below this Total.
Does that change here? That is most unlikely. Having had last week off Mullen comes in with a defense that is fresh and up to this challenge, so the best way to compete is to run and play field position early, and avoid the kind of mistakes that can give away easy points. It was a game plan that worked in that road upset of Florida (49 runs, nine passes, no TO’s), and we expect to see the same blue print. Nick Saban, of course, does not mind that tempo himself, and with his defense having allowed only one TD in 16 quarters on this field (and just 22 points), he does not have an early urgency to attack. He will also be confident to work field position, daring the Bulldog offense to open up, and that makes the early stages here checkers instead of chess, a pace that we do not believe ever will pick up.