jeff benton saturday
1-0-1 plus 20 dimes yesterday.
Jeff Benton SATURDAY'S ACTION
50 Dime college football selection on Michigan-Purdue OVER the poated total. The total in this contest is ranging from 61 to 62, and even though I fully expect this game to be played in at least the high 60s, it only makes sense to grab the lowest total you can find and give yourself the best opportulnity to cash!
15 Dime college football selection on Colorado State plus the points at home against BYU. The Rams are a catching 6½ points both here in Vegas and offshore, and while I firmly belirve Colorado State will be right there challenging for the outright win in the fourth quarter, let’s be smart and buy the half-point, taking the spread to an even +7.
Michigan-Purdue OVER the total
Michigan is going to score points – of that I have no doubt. The Wolverines are averaging 39 points and 536 total yards per game with a balanced attack that’s gotten the job done by land (273 rushing ypg) and by air (262 passing ypg). They’ve put up at least 28 points in eight of nine games this season (only exception was a 17-point effort against Michigan State, when QB Denard Robinson had an uncharacaeristic three interceptions and just 86 rushing yards), and they’ve topped 40 points four times in the last seven contests.
That includes last week’s 67-65 triple-overtime win over Illinois, and even if you want to question that point total because the game went three extra sessions, well, Michigan still had 45 points at the end of regulation. Today, the Wolverines run up against a Purdue defense that has fallen on its face as the schedule has gotten more difficult (and opposing offenses have gotten more athletic). The Boilermakers held their first six opponents – the best of which was probably Northwestern – to just 20.5 ppg. But in the last three games, Purdue has surrendered 49, 44 and 34 points to Ohio State, Illinois and Wisconsin. And along with that 42.3 point-per-game average the Boilers have allowed nearly 394.3 total yards per game, including 181.3 rushing ypg.
So I repeat: Robinson (who will play today despite a mild head injury) and the Wolverines’ offense are going to find the end zone early and often today. The only question is, can Purdue get its offense going? After a 23-12 season-opening loss at Notre Dame, the Boilers went on a 4-1 run and put up at least 20 points in every game (24.6 ppg). But in their three losses to Ohio State, Illinois and Wisconsin, they scored a grand total of 23 points while averaging a paltry 208.7 ypg. Now, because of injuries to their top two triggermen, the Boilermakers are forced to trot out a freshman QB for the second straight week.
Still, if ever Purdue was going to snap out of its offensive funk, it figures to be today, because Michigan’s defense is beyond putrid. Since Big Ten play started, the Wolverines have allowed point totals of 35 (Indiana), 34 (Michigan State), 38 (Iowa), 41 (Penn State) and 65 (Illinois). I’ll do the math for you: That’s an average of 42.6 ppg! Even if you eliminate the 20 points Illinois scored in the three overtimes last week, that average is still 38.6 ppg!
In three road games this year – at Notre Dame, Indiana and Penn State – Michigan’s defense has been gashed for 512.7 yards per contest, including 142.3 rushing ypg. Meanwhile, Purdue’s offense has been much better at home this year; despite the 34-13 loss to Wisconsin last week, the Boilermakers are netting 23.2 points, 374.2 yards and – most importantly – 208.4 rushing yards per game in their house.
Put it all together and I’m very confident Purdue will move the ball today; they just have to find a way to get it across the goal line before turnling it over (Purdue’s QBs have combined for 12 interceptions this season, and the team has lost seven fumbles).
Two more points to make: 1) If you take out the Michigan State game (34-17), the final scores of the Wolverines’ last six contests (starting with a game against Division I-AA UMass) were 42-37, 65-21, 42-35, 38-28, 41-31 and 67-65. The lowest combined point total was 66, and the others were at least in the high 70s!; and 2) Here are the final scores of the last three Michigan-Purdue contests: 48-21, 48-42 and 38-36, all three flying over the total!
Finally, yes, Purdue has trended toward the “under” recently (36-14-2 last 52 home games, 39-18-1 last 58 conference games; 12-3-1 last 16 as a home underdog). However, check out Michigan’s “over” trends: 6-1 overall, 11-4 on the road, 5-1 as a favorite, 5-1 as a road favorite and 5-0 as a double-digit road chalk.
This has got shootout written all over it, guys. Play it high!
Colorado State
No way in hell BYU should be laying points – nearly a touchdown no less! – on the road against any opponent, and I don’t care that the Cougars have turned things around with three wins in their last four game. Hell, all three wins were in Provo, two of which were nail-biters (24-21 win over San Diego State, which got completely hosed by the officials and it cost them a win; 25-20 win over crappy Wyoming, which just lost to 0-8 New Mexico last week!).
BYU’s other recent victory was last week’s 55-7 romp over UNLV, but you can throw that right out the window because UNLV (1-8) is a joke (Colorado State ripped the Rebels 43-10 a month ago!).
In four games away from Provo this year, BYU is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. The results: 35-14 loss at Air Force; 34-10 loss at Florida State; 31-16 at Utah State; and 31-3 at TCU (the Cougars covered that one as a 30-point ‘dog). All totaled then, BYU has been outscored 131-43 in four road games, while getting outgained by an average margin of 430-246, including 259-105 on the ground!
Compare the Cougars’ road numbers to Colorado State’s home numbers. The Rams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in Fort Collins, the only blemish being a 27-0 loss to TCU. Remove that contest from the ledger, and Colorado State has averaged 39 points and 523.3 yards per game (231.7 rushing) at home, while allowing just 19.3 points and 323.3 yards per game (119 rushing).
Again, how can BYU – which prior to last week against UNLV hadn’t scored more than 25 points all year or won a game by more than five points – be favored on the road today? I just don’t get it, especially since Colorado State is coming off a very strong shoring at San Diego State last week – the Rams hung with the Aztecs (now 7-2) the entire way and fell 24-19 as an 18-point underdog.
Colorado State is on a 6-1 ATS roll, going 4-1 ATS as an underdog, and the Rams have covered in nine of 11 as a home ‘dog. Yes, BYU has cashed in three of its last four games, but it remains in pointspread slumps of 1-4 against losing teams, 1-7 following a spread-cover and 2-5 when laying 3½ to 10 points.
If that’s not enough, consider the fact that BYU – with a Top 25 team – barely eked out a 45-42 win its last trip to Fort Collins, failing to cover as a 15½-point favorite.
The Rams will cover this number, and I won’t be the least bit shocked if they score the outright upset!
