King Creole | CFB Total Sat, 10/25/14 - 4:00 PM double-dime bet
147 UNLV / 148 Utah St. UNDER 51.5 Hilton
Analysis: 2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU Line: 51.5 or higher
Game One is primarily a trend-driven play with elements of current inept offenses. With Utah State QB Garretson still injured, the Aggie offense is really hurting. They’re off a ZERO TD performance against Colorado State in which the final score was 16-13 (OU line was 55). That game went UNDER by -26 points. In fact, the Aggies come into Saturday’s game on a 1-3 O/U run in their last three games. Utah State can’t run and they’re ranked 99th in total offense on the season. Dating back to last season, the Aggies are on a PERFECT 0-6 O/U run in their last six games against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. In addition, the Aggies are 5-16 O/U off an ATS win (covered the spread in last weeks loss)… 5-16 O/U after allowing < 20 pts in their last game… 8-17-1 O/U in October… and 1-10 O/U in the last three years after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their last game.
The visiting Rebels are trending UNDER as well. First off, they’ve gone a perfect 0-4 O/U in their last four meetings against Utah State. Average OU line in those games: 52.1. Average combined points scored in those four games: 45.8. Last week, UNLV went UNDER against Fresno State despite that game going into overtime. It was the Rebels fourth STRAIGHT ‘Under’ in a row. Average OU margin in their last four games: -8.2 points per game. UNLV’s offense is ranked #88 in the country… and even worse: Their SCORING offense (PPG) is ranked at #117 (only 19 total points per game). The Rebels are 4-12 O/U playing off anATS win (lost but covered vs Fresno LW)… 2-7-1 O/U in their last 10 Mountain West Conference games… 1-5 O/U after allowing 280 passing yards in their last game… and a perfect 0-6 O/U on the road versus opponents with a winning home record.
Pick Made: Oct 24 2014 9:07AM PST
King Creole | CFB Total Sat, 10/25/14 - 6:00 PM double-dime bet
173 Arizona / 174 Washington St. OVER 73.0 5Dimes
Analysis: 2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 73 or lower
Game Two tales us out to PAC 12 Country, with the Cougars hosting the Wildcats in what figures to be a big-time shoot out. We’re certainly aware that both teams come in with a combined 5-8 O/U record on the season. But both come in with outstanding offenses that average more than 530 yards per game. And both come in well rested off a Bye Week. First off, the traveling Wildcats. Arizona is ranked #4 in the entire country in overall offense for the year, with 558 YPG. That includes #7 in overall PASSING offense as well, with 358 YPG thru the air. In their most recent game (the heartbreak loss to USC), the Wildcats threw for 395 yards. They’ve now averaged OVER 400 YPG passing in their three conference games this year. Arizona has gone 10-4 O/U in their last 14 games in October and 12-4-1 O/U playing off a SU loss. And they get to take on a team that’s ranked #98 on defense for the year.
The host Cougars of Washington State play their offense on an entirely different level than most other CFB programs. Mike Leach’s quike-strike offense is unreal. They’re ranked #8 in the country at 535 YPG. But their PASSING offense is even better… ranked NUMBER ONE overall at 490 passing YPG. Stud QB Connor Halliday averages a whopping 63 passing attempts PER game. He’s had 28 TD passes in only 7 games. Tha’s 4 TD passes PER game. And their poor defense plays right into Arizona’s strength. Washington State is ranked #111 in passing defense, allowing 281 YPG thru the air and they take on a team that’s ranked #7 in passing offense on the season. The COUGARS are 52-23-2 O/U in the last seven seasons off an ATS loss… 22-9-1 O/U in their last 32 on Fieldturf… 6-0-1 O/U after scoring 20 < pts… and 5-1 O/U after allowing 450+ yards in their last game.
Pick Made: Oct 24 2014 9:08AM PST
King Creole | CFB Total Sun, 10/26/14 - 12:00 AM double-dime bet
199 Nevada / 200 Hawaii UNDER 52.0 Hilton
Analysis: 2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 51.5 or higher
Game Three take us out to to EXTREME West and the ‘Big Island’. We see a result similar to last season when Nevada rushed and rolled all over Hawaii, winning 31-9. The OU Line in that one was similar (54 points), and the Under cashed by two touchdowns (14 points). The host Warriors are off a game in which they had only ONE touchdown (lost 20-10 to San Diego State). The Under cashed by 19 points in that one. Hawaii only had 264 total yards of offense. In fact, the Warriors average only 351 offensive YPG on the season… which is ranked #109 in the entire country. Their SCORING offense is even worse, at #11 in the country (only 21 ppg). Last week’s Under for Hawaii was their FOURTH in their last five games. Average OU margin: -12.0 ppg. On the flip side, they DO have respectable defense that at least ranked in the top half of the 128 CFB teams.
The Nevada Wolfpack comes in armed with one of our favorite UNDER ‘Play on’ situations. They’re off a shocking road win against BYU in which Nevada was +10 points. They won that one OUTRIGHT by seven points. That sets them up in this: 7-28-3 O/U last 7 years: All NCCA Conference teams playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT conference road DOG win (Nevada)… when the OU line is > 50 points. With the line for this one at 51.5, they still (but barely) qualify in this low-scoring situation. Nevada has just the stats we’re looking for in a lower-than-anticipated score. The Wolfpack enter with a 2-5 O/U record on the year. In addition, Nevada is on a 2-year run of 2-11 O/U in their last 13 games… 1-7 O/U in their last 8 Mountain West Conference games… 1-5 O/U in their last six road games… 1-5 O/U off an ATS win… and 1-5 O/U after allowing 280 > passing yards in their last game.
Pick Made: Oct 24 2014 9:10AM PST
King Creole | CFB Side Sat, 10/25/14 - 3:30 PM double-dime bet
122 Kentucky 15.0 (-110) SportsInterAction vs 121 Mississippi St
Analysis: 2** KENTUCKY WILDCATS plus the points
If there ever was a time to fade a ranked team, this is it. Give Mississippi State all the credit in the world. They’re ranked #1 in the entire country for the first time ever. They come off a 3-game gauntlet in which they defeated LSU (IN Death Valley)… Texas A&M… and Auburn. With a week of rest under their belts, we can see why so many squares will be laying big points in the road against Kentucky. Not us. We’re grabbing TWO TD’s+ with the host Wildcats.
Reaching #1 in the Country is hard. Over the last three decades, WINNING as first-time #1 team has even been harder. Particularly on the road. Since 1984, eight College Football programs have left home as the #1 team in the country for the first time EVER. Five of those teams lost OUTRIGHT in their first trip away from home. Those five were #1 Miami-Fla in 1984 (lost 22-14 vs Michigan)… #1 Florida in 1985 (lost 24-3 vs Georgia in Jacksonville)… #1 Florida State in 1988 (lost 31-0 vs Miami)… #1 Colorado in 1989 (lost 21-6 vs Notre Dame)… and #1 Missouri (lost 38-17 vs Oklahoma).
Mississippi State is laying points on the road and playing with rest off a home dog win (over Auburn)… against a team playing with REVENGE... 1-12 ATS since 1997: All Conference road favorites 5 > points playing with REST and off a SU home DOG conference win (Bulldogs)… versus any opponent with Revenge (KENTUCKY).
Undefeated teams playing with a week of rest have been HORRIFIC ‘play on’ teams when taking to the road...2-12 ATS since 1998: All Game Six or greater UNDEFEATED conference road favorites of > 11 points (Bulldogs) playing with REST.
Ignore the rest situation… and Mississippi State is still a prime ‘play AGAINST’ team... 3-27 ATS since 1990: All Conference road favorites of -10 to -19 points off a SU one dog win (Miss St) versus any opponent with Revenge (KENTUCKY). Since 1999, these teams have gone an almost perfect 1-19 ATS!
Kentucky comes in with a 5-2 SU record on the season (.714)… 24-11 ATS since 2005: All BIG conference home underdogs of +12 > pts with a current W/L record of .666 > (KENTUCKY). These teams have gone 17-5 ATS in Game Five or greater… including a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last four seasons.
Yes, we’re aware that Kentucky s**t the bed’ last week… losing to LSU by a score of 41 to 3... 7–1-1 ATS since 1995: All SEC teams with a > .600 winning percentage (KENTUCKY) playing off a SU conference road loss of 35 > points.
Remember, regardless of whether it’s College Football or Basketball, sharp underdog players will ALWAYS take the points with an unranked home conference underdog (KENTUCKY) against a RANKED road favorite (Miss St).
Pick Made: Oct 24 2014 11:23AM PST