Service Plays Saturday 10/25/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Gold Medal Club

117 Minnesota @ 118 Purdue 12:00 pm

PLAY ON # 118 PURDUE MONEY LINE

We back Purdue here knowing they have faced a much tougher schedule than Minnesota, and the Gophers are 1-7 ats vs Purdue in there previous 8 meetings.
The success of Minnesota can be attributed to the fact that they not only have limited turnovers, but have dominated the clock by running the ball enabling them to accumulate a 6-1 record, but that changes today.
Purdue Senior QB, Curtis Painter should have a field day against a suspect secondary, forcing Minnesota to abandon there "safe" offensive approach, and we will see Minnesota turn the ball over on Saturday.
Homecoming game for the Boilermakers makes for an extra effort and quite possibly a blowout! enjoy

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly

5 ballstate -24
4 boston co. +3
3 tulane-2.5
2 california -17.5
2 kansas-2.5
1 nc state +10.5
1 nebraska-10.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTH COAST Power Sweep


NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-7)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-3)


4* GEORGIA TECH over Virginia - The home tm is 12-1 SU (9-1 ATS) incl LY’s UVA 28-23 upset win. GT is 12-0 SU in HC games and in their 2 lined HG’s TY, GT has outscored their opp 65-7. Both tms have faced Duke as GT shutout the Blue Devils 27-0 while UVA lost 31-3. QB Nesbitt is avg 145 ttl ypg & has 7 TD (5 rush). RB Dwyer has 684 rush yds (6.3). Although GT runs the triple option, WR D Thomas has 22 rec (18.9). LW GT defeated CU 21-17 in an emotional gm for the Tigers just 5 days after HC Bowden stepped down & it gave the Yellow Jackets their 4th straight win. GT has solid edges on both sides of the ball (O #56-90, #23-52 D). LW UVA was held to just 3 pts for about 58 mins before getting a late TD to send the gm to OT, where they upset #18 NC 16-13. QB Verica is avg 169 ypg (65%) with a 3-7 ratio. RB Peerman has 423 rush yds (6.0) and WR Ogletree has 37 rec (12.3). Virginia deserves credit for 3 straight wins but now GT has definite advantages on both sides of the lines and we will grab the value playing against UVA with their recent success. FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 28 Virginia 6



3* FLORIDA ST over Virginia Tech - Beamer is 1-7 SU vs Fla St and Bowden is 14-1 SU vs VT but the 1 for each was LY and they’ve combined for over 800 gms as HC. LY the Seminoles led 21-20 into the 4Q before getting outscored 20-0. Fla St lost QB Weatherford in the 2Q and backup QB Lee was susp so they had to go with rFr Ponder getting his first real action ever. Tech has won 7 of 8 league road games with the only loss LW vs BC (28-23) in a game BC held VT to just 240 ttl yds. QB Taylor has avg 172 ttl ypg in the 6 gms he’s played and RB Evans has 442 rush yds (3.8). FSU has a solid edge on both sides of the ball (off #28-72, def #19-35). QB Ponder who threw for 254 yds (66%) vs NCSt LW, is avg 209 ttl ypg. RB Smith has 483 rush yds (4.8, 10 TD). VT is struggling and now has to travel to Florida with the ACC’s #11 offense (285 ypg) and now faces the #1 D (248 all’d ypg). FSU also has the #1 offense (419 ypg) vs VT’s #6 D (312). The Florida St off and def are both showing improvement and it will be obvious here. FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 Virginia Tech 13


3* NEBRASKA over Baylor - NU is 6-0 in B12 play vs BU winning by a 48-12 avg and outgaining them by 349 ypg. NU is 12-4 ATS in HC gms and 8-4 ATS when hosting B12 South. Huskers snapped a 3 gm losing streak LW avoiding its 1st 0-3 conf start in 63 yrs taking care of ISU (21-0 HT lead with a 330 yd edge for the gm). Ganz is avg 281 ypg (70%) with a 12-6 ratio. BU is 5-13 ATS in B12 AG and has been outgained in their L/8 (0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS) by 217 ypg incl LW when OSU held them to 204 yds (QB Griffin 174 yds, 85% of offense). Griffin is avg 182 ypg (61%) with a 9-0 ratio & is 65% of the Bears off (1,704 ttl yds). For the 1st time this ssn BU is not catching an opp in a favorable situation & the last time NU faced a mobile QB they all’d VT’s Taylor to gain 258 ttl yds. This will be the Huskers only HG in a month and they have the off edge (#13-66) and have played the far tougher sked (#25-65). FORECAST: NEBRASKA 38 Baylor 17


2* WISCONSIN over Illinois - LY’s 31-26 win marked Illinois’ 1st win over a Top 5 team S/’89 even though the unranked Illini were actually favored (-2’) at home. UW has won their L4 HC by a 34-12 avg but in ‘06 in Madison, UW (-21’) trailed 21-3 & was fortunate to win 30-24. The Illini are off a 55-13 pounding of Indy (minus QB Lewis) in which they outgained the Hoosiers 563-313. QB WIlliams (278 ypg, 60%, 16-7 ratio, 599 rush yds) leads the B10 in passing, pass eff & ttl off. True frosh RB Ford (PS#32) got 172 yds in his 1st start vs the Hoosiers and at 6-0 220+ he fits the more physical Mendenhall mold. Illini allow 151 rush ypg (4.0). After being voted #2 in the B10’s media preseason poll, the Badgers are in the basement at 0-4 (1st time S/’96) after LW’s 38-16 loss at Iowa in which they trailed just 14-9 in the 3Q before the wheels fell off. QB Sherer got his 1st start but provided little spark hitting 17-34 for 161 with 2 int and Evridge DNP. OL Carimi and Urbik sat out due to inj. Badgers have allowed 179 rush ypg (5.0) in B10 play. The Badgers have the home, D (#40-55) & ST (#47-98) edges and are desperate to turn their season around. FORECAST: WISCONSIN 31 Illinois 24

2* Smu (+) over NAVY - SMU is 2-4 SU/ATS vs Navy S/‘93. Navy is 3-8 as a HF while SMU 6-3-1 as an AD. June Jones was 2-0 vs AF & Navy (two option service academies) at Hawaii beating AF 52-30 (-9’) in 2001. SMU is making a rare trip to the East coast but does have a bye on deck. SMU QB Mitchell is avg 285 ypg (60%) with a 21-18 ratio, but has improved avg 345 ypg (65%) with a 9-6 ratio the L/3. After losing 3 of their 1st 4 gms by 35 ppg, SMU had a big comeback vs Tulane (lost by 7), outgained UCF 376-280 (lost by 14), led undefeated Tulsa 31-24 in the 4Q (lost by 6) and led Houston 35-23 in the 4Q (lost by 6) showing the team’s improvement under Jones. SMU does lead the NCAA in off int (18), but Navy ranks #112 in our pass D rankings. SMU has already faced Rice (#24 NCAA total off), TT (2), Tulsa (1), and Houston (4) and their D is #117 as a result of such a tough slate of opposing offenses. SMU has allowed 215 rush ypg (5.2). Navy’s offense has been hampered with starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada missing a lot of PT TY with inj and backup Bryant is only avg 38 ypg pass with 392 rush (3.2). SMU is now grasping this new offense and they can exploit Navy’s pass D and an outright upset will not surprise. FORECAST: Smu 37 (+) NAVY 34


2* NORTH CAROLINA over Boston College - In their last meeting, NC upset #19 BC 16-14 as a 5 pt HD and it was our 2005 College GOY. NC never trailed but settled for 3 short FG’s and led 16-7 with the ball in BC territory with 2:25 left. BC got a garbage TD in the final seconds. LW NC held UVA to just 3 pts for 58 mins but all’d a late TD to send the gm into OT & lost 16-13 extending their losing streak at Scott Stadium to 14. NC was w/o WR Tate (torn ACL, out yr), who led ACC in all-purp yds. LB Carter did get his 4th blk’d kick of the ssn vs UVA. QB Sexton is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-3 ratio. WR Nicks has 39 rec (16.5). Both teams matchup about even on off (NC#52-58), BC has a slight def edge (#28-39) but NC has a solid sp tms edge (#12-108). BC defeated #17 VT 28-23 thanks to their D (only allowed 240 ttl yds) as QB Crane had 4 TO’s (2 ret’d for TD). On the season, Crane is avg 185 ypg (56%) with a 5-9 ratio. True Fr RB Harris has 374 yds (6.4, PS#159). The Heels force alot of TO’s (18) which could spell trouble for Crane. FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 30 Boston College 20


UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

Michigan +5 1/2 over Mich St

Mich has won the L/6 SU & L/8 at home. The team with more rush yards is 35-3 SU. Last time here UM led 24-0 & won by 18. LY the Spartans led 24-14 with 7:40 left but lost at home & RB Hart called the Spartans UM’s “little brother.” The Wolves have never been a HD to the Spartans & the only other time they were a dog came in ‘05 when we won with them as a 4H LPS. MSU is off their worst home loss S/’95, a 45-7 drubbing by OSU as we used the Bucks as our 5H Oct GOM. QB Hoyer (concussion & hand-CS) returned for just one 2H series vs OSU. RB Ringer (#2 NCAA 1179, 4.5) was a non-factor with ssn lows of 16-67 as OSU jumped out to a 21-0 1Q lead. MSU has allowed 183 rush ypg (4.8) in conf play. Mich has lost 3 straight in the same ssn for the 1st time S/’79 as after a fast start vs Penn St (scored on 1st 3 drives & led 17-7) they failed to score in the gm’s L/43:00. Threet QB’d the 1st 3 drives (9-13 for 84 yds & 50 rush yds) before re-inj his elbow and Sheridan struggled (3-9 for 5 yds). Wolves have been pounded for 193 rush ypg (4.5) in league play. At 2-5 Mich is desperate for a win and to prove that they’re still the big bro in the Great Lake state. FORECAST: MICHIGAN 23 Michigan St 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (56-49-1)


4★ MARYLAND 31 NC STATE 16

MD is 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in this series, but the visitor is 6-1 ATS. NC St is on a 2-9 ATS run in ACC
AG’s. PP says MD will win by 15 (line 10’) and we agree.

4★ MIAMI FL 25 WAKE FOREST 18
Miami has won 4 in a row SU in this series but WF is 9-4 ATS as an AD. PP says that UM will
win by 7 (line 2’) and neither can afford another ACC loss

4★ NORTHWESTERN 38 INDIANA 20
NW is 8-2 SU in this series but has only won by an avg of 31-27. PP calls for NW to win by 18
(line 9’) and the Cats will lock in a bowl bid with their 7th win.



4★ NORTH CAROLINA 26 BOSTON COLLEGE 19
In their last meeting NC upset #19 BC 16-14 as our ‘05 College GOY. PP calls for NC to win by
7 (line 3) and though the ydg forecast is close, NC has a large special teams edge.

4★ PITTSBURGH 24 RUTGERS 9
LW Pitt dominated Navy and won a 3★ LPS for us. PP predicts they will end their 3 gm losing
streak to Rutgers with a 15 pt win and a 389-213 yd edge and we agree.


4★ FLORIDA 36 KENTUCKY 8
UK gutted out a last second win over Ark LW, but they are in way over their heads in this one. PP
says the Gators will win by 28 (line 23) and though UK’s D is tough, UF has a huge speed edge.


4★ MISSISSIPPI 30 ARKANSAS 24
Houston Nutt was forced out at Ark LY and now returns to his home state to face his former team.
A lot of emotions on both sides, but you can bet this is one Nutt would love to win. PP says UM wins
by 6 (line 4), but we think it could be by a lot more

4★ RICE (+) 37 TULANE 32
The dog is 5-2 ATS in this series that has avg 71 ppg since Rice joined CUSA. PP says that Rice
will win by 5 and they are getting 2, and we agree.

4★ FLORIDA STATE 28 VIRGINIA TECH 19
It’s surprising to see a VT squad forecasted to get outgained 402-213. Remember FSU had numerous
susp to start the ssn and have yet to hit their stride. They’re only a 4’ pt fav and a Top Play here.

4★ TEXAS TECH 33 KANSAS 31
Kansas has not seen this TT off S/‘05 and TT is avg 46 ppg and gained 561 yds LW at A&M. They
are forecasted to have a slight 468-462 yd edge and win. TT is a dog so that makes this a 4★.

4★ HAWAII 33 NEVADA 31
A trip to the Islands is always diffi cult and Nev has lost all 4 (1-3 ATS) by 17 ppg. Now the Warriors
are forecasted to outgain the Wolf Pack 445-417 and they’re a HD. That makes this a Top Play


3★ NOTRE DAME 33 WASHINGTON 20
Washington’s numbers keep getting adjusted with the loss of QB Locker. They have gained yards
but have had trouble scoring, being held to 14 or less in 3 of 4. ND has now covered 3 straight



3★ BALL ST 40 EASTERN MICHIGAN 11
BSU is one of only 9 undefeated teams, off a bye and now faces one of the MAC’s weakest
squads. PP calls for a 29 pt win (line 23’) with a 479-306 yd edge.

3★ CENTRAL MICHIGAN 34 TOLEDO 28
All Toledo has done is lose to a pair of MAC tms by a combined 69-7 and sandwiched around an
upset win at Michigan. They’ve dropped all 3 SU at home TY and PP is calling for a 4th home loss.


3★ MISSOURI 38 COLORADO 15
Missouri can fall apart after B2B losses or do what we expect which is to fi nish the season with
a vengeance. PP is calling for a 482-288 yd edge and the Tigers get a big feel good win


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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Vegas Experts The Edge Newsletter


Michigan St., Georgia, Penn st.


NCAA WEEK 9

No. 1 Texas continues their brutal schedule, as they face a third straight top-15 opponent with a fourth looming next week. The Longhorns host No. 6 Oklahoma State in Austin. Also in the Big 12, No. 8 Texas Tech gets a tough test in their warm up for next week's game against the Longhorns, as they travel to No. 23 Kansas. A second top-10 face-off occurs in the Big Ten, with No. 3 Penn State travelling to the Horseshoe to take on No. 9 Ohio State. The Nittany Lions will look to remain undefeated and in the National Championship picture, while the Buckeyes hope to jump back into the running. In the SEC, No. 7 Georgia takes the trip down to the bayou to face No. 13 LSU. Both teams are still in contention for the SEC Championship game.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include No. 2 Alabama versus Tennessee, No. 5 USC versus Arizona, and Michigan State versus Michigan. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 9 – Games to Watch

Oklahoma State vs Texas (10/25 3:30P)

Oklahoma State's best start since 1945 has moved the Cowboys up to No. 7 in the polls after starting the season unranked. They are the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 46.4 points per game. Their rushing attack is gaining over 280 yards per game, but will have to face a Texas defense only allowing 48.1 rushing yards per contest. The team's top three rushers all average over 6 ypc, and starter Kendall Hunter needs only 45 yards to break the 1,000 mark for the season. Quarterback Zac Robinson has played well with 14 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions and completing 70% of his passes. The Cowboys have only played in one close game this season, and that was the 28-23 upset win over then-No. 3 Missouri.

Texas gets its third straight ranked Big 12 opponent after handling Oklahoma and Missouri. The Longhorns are led by Heisman candidate Colt McCoy, who leads the nation with an 81.2% completion percentage. McCoy has thrown for 1894 yards with 19 touchdowns and 3 picks, and he also has 371 yards (a team high) and 6 TD on the ground. Senior WR Jordan Shipley has been McCoy's favorite scoring target with 9 TD grabs. The Texas defense has been bend-but-don't-break when it comes to the passing game. They are giving up 275 yards per game through the air, which is ninth worst in the FBS.

Both teams come in undefeated, and both are also undefeated against the spread. One will fall this weekend, and the public is slightly favoring Texas in spread bets at 57%. Parlay bets are more strongly behind the Longhorns at 66%. At Pinnacle the line opened at Texas -12.5 and has fluctuated between -12 and -13. The movement triggered a Smart Money play on the Cowboys at Bodog, which has a 17-7 record for NCAA football. The stats are evenly matched between these teams, so we'll follow the Smart Money and take the Cowboys with the points.

Oklahoma State +12.5 (ThePig)

Wake Forest vs Miami (FL) (10/25 12P)

Wake Forest is coming of a disappointing 26-0 loss at Maryland that dropped them out of the top 25 rankings. Junior quarterback Riley Skinner has been slumping of late with only two touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last four games. He only completed 46.7% of his passes against Maryland. Part of the problem for the Demon Deacons is the lack of a consistent running game to take pressure off Skinner. Sophomore Josh Adams is the team's leading rusher and has only gained 246 yards while averaging 3.1 ypc. The Deac's defense, which starts eight seniors and three juniors, was allowing only 15 points per game until last week's debacle.

Miami put up 35 points in the second half to overcome a 10-point deficit in last week's win at Duke. The Hurricanes made a quarterback switch during the second quarter, and the move sparked the offense. Freshman Jacory Harris ended the game with five total touchdowns, with four coming through the air. Harris won't make the start this week, but he will see playing time. If starter Robert Marve struggles, watch for Harris to get the majority of the snaps. The win was Miami's first inside the competitive ACC this season, and gives them a glimmer of hope in the conference standings. The Canes defense doesn't give up a lot of yardage, only 287 yards per game, but they have a tendency to allow big plays.

Both teams struggle defensively in the red zone, with Miami ranking last in the ACC and Wake next-to-last. This game could come down to red zone opportunities and conversions. The Deacons actually average more yards per game on offense than the Canes, but Miami is putting up 32.6 points per game compared to 18.7 for Wake Forest. Miami opened as 2.5 point favorites at Pinnacle, and the line has returned there after moving to Miami -3 during the middle of the week. The Canes are receiving 63% of the public's spread and parlay bets. The return of the line to Miami -2.5 and the betting percentage is an indication of Smart Money. We're going to follow that and buy low and a good Wake Forest team.

Wake Forest +2.5

Rutgers vs Pittsburgh (10/25 3:30PM)

Rutgers has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation this season, but they are coming off a big win over UConn. In that game the Scarlet Knight defense held FBS leading rusher Donald Brown to a season-low 107 yards. The Rutgers offense isn't a juggernaut, but they do put up a respectable 314.7 yards per game. Unfortunately they are only averaging 16.7 points per game, while the defense allows 19.7 points. Last week quarterback Mike Teel moved up to second on the school's all-time passing yards list. Junior WR Kenny Britt had nine catches and 107 receiving yards against UConn, which was his third 100-yard game this season.

Pittsburgh jumped up to a 17th ranking after their best offensive display in two years. The Panthers compiled 499 yards and 42 points last week against Navy. Pittsburgh features the Big East's second-leading rusher in LeSean McCoy, who has 689 yards and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Bill Stull has been steady behind center, while completing 58.5% of his passes with four touchdowns and five interceptions. The Panthers defense has held opponents to 287 yards per game and only 156.5 yards through the air. Pittsburgh is looking for it's sixth straight win, which it hasn't done since 1983.

Pittsburgh opened as 10-point favorites at Pinnacle following last week's strong performance. The public is backing the Panthers with 67% of spread bets and a whopping 89% of parlay bets, but the line dropped as low as Pittsburgh -8 before climbing back to -10. This is an indication of some Smart Money behind the Scarlet Knights. The movement also triggered a Steam Move on Rutgers by Bet Jamaica (90-67.) Pittsburgh is also 0-3 at home against the spread this season. We'll follow that Steam and back Rutgers with the points.

Rutgers +10

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 9.

Games to Watch (9-14-1)
Oklahoma State +12.5 (ThePig)
Wake Forest +2.5
Rutgers +10

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fatjack

Minnesota
Georgia
Mississippi
Tennessee
Georgia Tech
Baylor

 

[Sporting]

Just got VictoriousPlay NCAAF plays for today...

2* LSU -1
2* Maryland Over 45.5
1* Wisconsin Over 53.5

BOL to you all!!!

:toast:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET (17-15)


KEY RELEASES---
MINNESOTA by 12 over Purdue
VANDERBILT by 20 over Duke
GEORGIA TECH by 28 over Virginia
TULSA by 32 over Ucf (Sunday, Oct. 26)




Minnesota 31 - PURDUE 19—Rested Minnesota has covered 5
straight and owns one of most improved defenses in the nation. Gopher d.c.
Ted Roof has a bend-but-don’t break unit that’s generating lots of turnovers
(Gophers rank 1st in TO margin; Purdue 101st). Not sure reeling Purdue
capable of moving ball consistently, considering Boiler QB Painter has been a
disappointment in ’08, with 9 ints. & just 4 TD passes in last 6 games, and has
apparently lost the confidence of HC Tiller. Minny’s Weber-to-Decker combo
too much Purdue 2ndary that bee hurt by lesser QBs.
(07-Purd. 45-MINN. 31...P.28-25 M.37/232 P.33/166 P.33/48/1/338 M.23/44/1/237 P.0 M.3)
(07-Purd. -14 45-31 06-PURD. +2' 27-21 05-MINN. -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-30-3)




VANDERBILT 34 - Duke 14—Since Vandy might have big trouble
reaching that elusive 6th win with a brutal Nov. slate, now’s the time to endorse
hungry ‘Dores stepping waaayy down in class. Vandy’s mobile QB M. Adams
& RB Hawkins (399 YR, 4.2 ypc) burn a Duke defense feeling “bad vibes” after
allowing 35 2nd-H pts. in 49-31 loss vs. Miami. ‘Dores TO-creating stop unit (17
takeaways; 13 ints.!) helps set up favorable field position vs. Blue Devils, on
road for only 2nd time TY. (06-Vanderbilt -8 45-28...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)





GEORGIA TECH 35 - Virginia 7—Three straight home wins have put
surprising Virginia & beleaguered HC Groh back in thick of ACC title chase. But
Cavs now hitting the road, where they’re just 9-25 vs. spread in last 34 as true
visitor. Facing Tech’s terrific DL a tough assignment for still-learning UVa soph
QB Verica, and no better bankroll buddy than new Jacket & former Navy mentor
Paul Johnson (5-0 against line TY). TV—ESPNU
(07-VA. 28-Ga. Tech 23...V.20-17 G.31/121 V.42/121 V.20/35/1/233 G.17/40/1/230 V.2 G.1)
(07-VA. +3' 28-23 06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17...SR: Virginia 15-14-1)



*TULSA 56 - Ucf 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend
to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this
matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering
UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut
Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57
ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)
(07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA


ARMY
It’s been a while since Army has caused much commotion on
the gridiron. But the Black Knights of the Hudson are making their
mark in recent weeks, covering four games in a row, and look to
make it five straight when playing host Saturday afternoon at
Michie Stadium vs. poor traveling Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs
are continuing their long-standing trend as one of the nation’s
worst road teams, dropping their first three vs. the number as a
visitor, lowering their road spread mark to a miserable 13-35-2
since early in the 2001 campaign.



UCLA
Since football games and pointspread decisions are decided by
scoreboard points, not style points, UCLA looms as a worthy
recommendation this week as it travels to Berkeley to face “big
brother” Cal. The Bruins are now an eye-poppin’ 16-2 vs. the line
their last 18 as an underdog, as well as a stellar 37-18 vs. the
number their last 55 on board since early in the 2004 campaign.
They’ve also failed to lose a spread decision in their last five
meetings vs. the Bears. As for Cal, note its extended underachieving
ways as double-digit chalk (just 3-12 last 15 in role).



TCU
It’s hard not to notice how poor Wyoming has performed lately,
and there’s no reason to think things will improve much when the
woeful Cowboys travel to Fort Worth for a Saturday date vs. hot
TCU. Wyo’s pointspread drought extends more than 13 months,
as the Cowboys stand 0-14-1 vs. the number their last 15 on the
board. Meanwhile, the Frogs continue to provide great value at
Amon Carter Stadium, especially as double-digit chalk, covering 6
of their last 7. TCU is also a sparkling 15-4 vs. the line its last 19 at
Fort Worth.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

gamblers ally

san jose state

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RocketMan Sports

Minnesota @ Purdue
Play: 3* Purdue +2

Purdue is 11-3 SU and 10-3 ATS overall vs Minnesota since 1992 including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home vs Minnesota since 1992. Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Golden Gophers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Purdue. We'll play Purdue for 3 units today!


Rutgers @ Pittsburgh
Play: 3* Rutgers +10

Rutgers is 5-1 ATS last 3 years as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Rutgers is 8-2 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. Scarlet Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Panthers are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. We'll play Rutgers for 3 units today!


Kentucky @ Florida
Play: 3* Florida -25

Kentucky is 3-11 ATS since 1992 as a road underdog of 21 1/2 points or more. Florida is scoring 38.5 points per game overall this year and 40.7 points per game at home this season. Florida is allowing only 13 points per game overall this year and 16.2 points per game at home this season. Wildcats are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Gators are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass. Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. We'll play Florida for 3 units today!


UNLV @ BYU
Play: 3* BYU -23

UNLV is 3-10 ATS last 3 years in weeks 5 through 9. UNLV is allowing 32.7 points per game overall and 34.3 points per game on the road this year. BYU is scoring 33.4 points per game overall this year and 41.2 points per game at home this season. BYU is allowing only 13.3 points per game overall this year and 5 points per game at home this season. Runnin' Rebels are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games in October. Runnin' Rebels are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win. Runnin' Rebels are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Runnin' Rebels are 5-17-2 ATS in their last 24 road games. Runnin' Rebels are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Runnin' Rebels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Runnin' Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Cougars are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Cougars are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 conference games. Cougars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Cougars are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games on grass. We'll play BYU for 3 units today!


Michigan State @ Michigan
Play: 3* Michigan +4

Michigan State is 1-5 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record. Michigan State is 22-45 ATS since 1992 off a loss against a conference opponent. Michigan is 7-0 SU at home vs Michigan State since 1992. Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Spartans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in October. Spartans are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Spartans are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU loss. Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on turf. Spartans are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Spartans are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll play Michigan for 3 units today!


Colorado @ Missouri
Play: 3* Missouri -24

Colorado is 1-5 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Colorado is 24-43 ATS since 1992 when playing in October. Colorado is 5-15 ATS as an underdog last 3 years. Missouri is scoring 45.9 points per game overall and 46.5 points per game at home this year. Missouri is allowing only 17.2 points per game at home this season. Buffaloes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. Buffaloes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Buffaloes are 7-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Buffaloes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Tigers are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Tigers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. We'll play Missouri for 3 units tonight!


Southern Miss @ Memphis
Play: 3* Southern Miss -4

Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS last 3 years as a road favorite. Memphis is 2-8 ATS last 3 years as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Southern Miss is 13-3 ATS overall vs Memphis since 1997 including 6-1 ATS at Memphis since 1992. Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Golden Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tigers are 2-7-3 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Memphis. Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll play Southern Miss for 3 units tonight!

MLB Opinion only: Phillies

 

[METFAN]

just got victoriousplay ncaaf plays for today...

2* lsu -1
2* maryland over 45.5
1* wisconsin over 53.5

bol to you all!!!

:toast:

doesn't he have a soccer play?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRENT CROW
COLORADO AT MISSOURI -21
Recommendation: Missouri

TIM TRUSHEL
DUKE +10 AT VANDERBILT
Recommendation: Duke

ED CASH
VIRGINIA TECH +4.5 AT FLORIDA STATE
Recommendation: Virginia Tech

DONNIE BLACK
ILLINOIS -1 AT WISCONSIN
Recommendation: Illinois

FAIRWAY JAY
BOSTON COLLEGE +3 AT NORTH CAROLINA
Recommendation: Boston College

JARED KLEIN
PENN STATE AT OHIO STATE +1.5
Recommendation: Ohio State

ERIN RYNNING
RICE AT TULANE -2.5
Recommendation: Tulane

MARTY OTTO
NEVADA -3 AT HAWAII
Recommendation: Nevada

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->20* wa. forest
10* iowa st.
10* duke
10* tulane
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LOGICAL APPROACH


NCAA:

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA STATE + 4 over Oregon - Both teams are off of Byes. At 2-4 Arizona State has been disappointing thus far and are on a 4 game losing streak after starting 2-0. They've played the more demanding schedule than has Oregon as reflected in Oregon's opponents' combined 18-29 record while ASU's foes are a combined 28-13. Both teams have played - and lost - on the road to conference power USC. ASU actually compiled the better stats in their loss, being outgained by the Trojans 387-229 in their 28-0 loss while Oregon was outgained 598-239 in their 44-10 loss. State does get starting QB Carpenter back for this game. Coach Erickson's teams have always played exceptionally well at home where they are comfortable being aggressive and playing with swagger and attitude. Oregon's a solid program but the talent level on these teams is about even and does not justify ASU being a home underdog even though Oregon has won the last three meetings. Arizona State wins outright, 27-21.



Other Featured College Selections

Mississippi - 4 ½ over ARKANSAS - Former Arkansas coach Nutt has been looking forward to this game ever since his bitter dismissal as Head Hog last season despite years of success with the program. He's had a positive impact at Ole Miss in his first season as the Rebels have improved their level of play and pulled a stunning road upset of Florida. Though just 3-4, they've been competitive in all 4 losses with their largest margin of defeat just 7 points. Arkansas has played better of late for new coach Petrino after playing very poorly earlier. The offense has been inconsistent and the defense has been susceptible to the big play. The major edge for Ole Miss comes in Nutt's knowledge of the Arkansas players as he recruited most of them. Add in the emotion and this has the makings of a beatdown, especially since Arkansas with Nutt as coach has won 4 straight against Mississippi, including 44-8 and 38=3 the past two seasons. Mississippi wins 30-17.



MISSOURI - 21 ½ over Colorado - Mizzou's dreams of a National Title were dashed when they were upset at home two weeks ago by Oklahoma State. Any chances of a rebound went away when the Tigers were blown out at Texas last week 56-31. Now they return home and drop in class to face a Colorado team that has struggled on offense all season. The Buffaloes have been held to 14 points in 3 of their last 4 games and scored 21 points in a one sided loss to Florida State. Missouri has an outstanding offense behind QB Daniel that should flourish in this situation. Las season Missouri won 55-10 at Colorado as 3 point favorites. Mizzou can still win the Big 12 North and play for the conference title so the motivation to refocus is there. They have the balance to put up big numbers in this game (7.6 yards per play, # 2). Missouri wins big, 49-17.



OHIO STATE + 2 over Penn State - This game likely decides the Big 10 as both are unbeaten in league play with Penn State 8-0 overall and #3 in the BCS standings. After losing at USC, Ohio State's won 5 straight and is #9 in the BCS, a ranking that would improve with a win here. This game's winner will be favored to win their remaining games and with no Big 10 title game will be in excellent position for a spot in the BCS Title game as other contenders fall to one another. Penn State has not won at Ohio State since joining the Big 10, losing 7 straight by an average score of 28-8. They have yet to score more than 10 points at the Horseshoe. This may be JoePa's best team since joining the Big 10 in 1992 but they have benefitted from a relatively weak schedule. Yes, they did rout Oregon State at home but the overall record of their opponents is just 22-35 (OSU's foes are 20-16). Ohio State is a Home Dog for just the fifth time since 1993. They are 3-1 both SU and ATS. Saturday night under the lights will be Penn State's biggest challenge yet but the OSU defense and continued emergence of versatile QB Pryor will be too much to overcome. Ohio State wins 23-14.

 

[dallasfan]

CFB 1st qtr play

Not sure if this belongs on this thread..

For those of you who can wager off shore and get 1st qtr plays, TCU is -7 with a little juice. It is homecoming and if you read the threads, a blowout is expected. This is a strong play!

Looking forward to E. Roman's huge play , thanks for all you do on this site

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Merril

Louisville
Miami/ Wake under
Tennessee
Tulane
Georgia over
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Glenn McGrew GOY

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Georgia Tech

 

[oddsonsports]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (14-17-1)
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (12-9-1)

BEST BET
*TENNESSEE over ALABAMA by 6
TENNESSEE, 23-17.


BEST BET
*GEORGIA TECH over VIRGINIA by 24
GEORGIA TECH, 34-10.



BEST BET
*LOUISVILLE over SOUTH FLORIDA by 7
LOUISVILLE, 27-20.



BEST BET
VIRGINIA TECH over *FLORIDA STATE by 8
VIRGINIA TECH, 27-19.



RECOMMENDED
*MISSOURI over COLORADO by 30
MISSOURI, 46-16.


RECOMMENDED
*CALIFORNIA over UCLA by 26
CAL, 39-13.



RECOMMENDED
*BYU over UNLV by 32
BYU, 55-23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATSLOCKSCOM

Nebraska -13 (15 Unit Play)

Penn St -2 (10 Unit Play)

TCU -30.5 (10 Unit Play)

Texas Tech +1.5 (5 Unit Play)

Arizona +16(5 Unit Play)

Georgia +2 (5 Unit Play)
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