Jimmy Boyd
5* Big Ten GOTY on Michigan State -4
This opportunity is a long time coming for Michigan State and I like the Spartans to derail the Wolverines this week. To make matters worse for Michigan, the Spartans will be ready to take out last week's frustrating loss to Ohio State all over the Wolverines. Plays on a road team (MICHIGAN ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 27-6 ATS the last 10 seasons. MSU is also 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Michigan is just 1-6 ATS on the season as it has been consistently overvalued despite the fact that the Wolverines are not a good team this year. Take State.
5* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on Oregon -4
I agree with the books that the Ducks will win this game, but I have them burying ASU by two touchdowns. ASU has really fallen apart since its terrible loss to UNLV, losing 4 in a row SU and ATS. Oregon beat ASU by 12 points last season when the Sun Devils were good and they'll likely best that margin here. ASU is 0-6 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. With or without Rudy Carpenter, and it looks like it will be without, the Sun Devils get dominated here.
4* Major Late Night Annihilator on Nevada -3
Nevada is 20-9 ATS as a favorite under coach Ault, winning these games by an average of 16.3 ppg. When the odds makers have chalked one up for the Wolf Pack, they normally cover the number as well. Nevada has covered the number in each of the past two meetings with Hawaii, losing narrowly when the Warriors had better teams. Now that the Wolf Pack have the better side, I expect them to pay the Warriors back. The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Warriors are 9-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Lay the points.
3* SMASH on Nebraska -10.5
The Huskers will embarrass Baylor this week. Outside of a big loss to Mizzou, the Huskers have played solid football this season. Nebraska is averaging 33.4 ppg at home while Baylor is only scoring 17 ppg on the road. Baylor is 1-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play over the last 3 seasons, 6-16 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons, and 5-14 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Nebraska is also 24-9 ATS off a double digit road win since 1992, winning in these spots by an average score of 41.6 to 13.5. Lay the number.
3* SMASH on Minnesota +1
Purdue has played with no heart this season and they have now lost 4 straight. Minnesota is red hot and off a bye week and I think that gives the Gophers another "W" here. Minnesota is 6-1 on the season and has covered the spread in 5 straight lined games. The Golden Gophers are 11-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Minnesota has made a dramatic turnaround from last season and with a week to let the big Illinois upset simmer down and to prepare for Purdue, I like the Gophers to get it done.
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