Service Plays Saturday 10/25/08

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IT IS WHAT IT IS.............
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WY average is 9 points per game C,mon blowout is written all over this bad boy


WYOMING - Season Statistics Rushing Passing Total
Statistic PPG Half FD TOP ATT YDS RYPA COMP ATT PCT YDS PYPA ATT YDS YPP YPPT
All Games 9.0 3.9 15.1 28:83 39.3 159.9 4.1 12.1 24.4 49.7% 96.6 4.0 63.7 256.4 4.0 28.5
Opp Def Avg. 20.1 9.2 17.4 29:02 37.6 141.0 3.7 15.9 27.3 58.3% 172.3 6.3 65.0 313.3 4.8 15.6
Off Road Games 0.0 0.0 15.5 30:75 40.0 133.5 3.3 13.0 27.5 47.3% 103.5 3.8 67.5 237.0 3.5 474,000,000.0
All Games 29.9 18.4 16.7 31:16 39.4 157.4 4.0 15.6 27.0 57.7% 159.7 5.9 66.4 317.1 4.8 10.6
Opp Off Avg. 26.5 14.6 19.2 30:97 39.5 162.0 4.1 17.5 28.7 60.9% 205.0 7.1 68.2 366.9 5.4 13.8
Def Road Games 34.0 24.0 20.5 29:24 41.0 240.0 5.9 14.0 29.0 48.3% 117.0 4.0 70.0 357.0 5.1 10.5


TCU - Season Statistics Rushing Passing Total
Statistic PPG Half FD TOP ATT YDS RYPA COMP ATT PCT YDS PYPA ATT YDS YPP YPPT
All Games 33.5 18.9 23.0 35:86 51.1 233.9 4.6 15.7 27.5 57.3% 170.0 6.2 78.6 403.9 5.1 12.1
Opp Def Avg. 32.3 17.3 22.3 31:81 41.7 183.7 4.4 18.5 30.1 61.5% 218.8 7.3 71.7 402.4 5.6 12.5
Off Home Games 42.7 24.7 27.5 38:08 58.2 294.0 5.0 14.7 24.5 60.2% 158.7 6.5 82.7 452.7 5.5 10.6
All Games 10.9 7.0 11.6 24:13 24.6 21.0 0.9 15.9 32.5 48.8% 197.6 6.1 57.1 218.6 3.8 20.1
Opp Off Avg. 24.6 14.3 18.5 28:18 31.6 113.4 3.6 20.3 34.4 59.2% 232.7 6.8 66.0 346.1 5.2 14.0
Def Home Games 8.7 5.2 10.7 21:91 22.2 21.0 0.9 16.0 32.2 49.6% 158.5 4.9 54.5 179.5 3.3 20.5
 

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Here is Kelso's write up on the game

College Blowout Game Of The Year

100 Units

TCU (-30 ½) over Wyoming

Prediction: TCU by 55-60

Starting Time: 6:00

TV: MTN

Weather in Fort Worth: Clear, 75 degrees, 28% relative humidity and no wind.

Comments: For openers, I grade college games with a 47-step process and TCU (6-1) grades out on top in all 47—something almost unheard of—and it is meeting what appears to be the worst Wyoming (2-5) squad in years. TCU got its starting quarterback back from the injury list last week and absolutely destroyed nationally ranked BYU, 32-7. After watching TCU dismantle and run over BYU with its speed and quickness, I do not believe there is any way Wyoming can even keep it close and would be willing to bet the visiting Cowboys will not score a single point. TCU has the top-ranked defense in NCAA I-A, giving up just 218.7 yards per game, including just 20 yards a game rushing. If there were not impressive enough, the Horned Frogs also lead the NCAA in sacks with 33. It is just difficult to figure out a way Wyoming, which averages just 9.0 points and 256 yards on offense will stay in the game working against a defense of that quality. TCU gives up just 10.9 points per game has absolutely dominated every team it has played except Oklahoma to which it lost, 35-10. This is a classic contest of strength against weakness and TCU should have the cover by half-time.
 

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Kelso also has a smaller play on Alabama. Here is that write up.

15 Units

Alabama (-5 ½) over TENNESSEE

Prediction: Alabama by 14-17

Starting Time: 7:45

TV: ESPN

Weather in Knoxville: Partly cloudy, temperature of 55, relative humidity of 55 and wind out of the WNW at 7 miles per hour.

Comments: This is for Alabama a grudge-game without end. It is the firm belief of the Crimson Tide athletic department and the citizens of Alabama that Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer was the person who turned the school into the NCAA for alleged rules violations. As one who scouted in the SEC for several years, I can assure you this grudge might die in about 100 years and it will be a motivating factor for the Tide as they roll into Knoxville, as if they needed any extra inspiration. Alabama (7-0). Tennessee (3-4) has no offense and has seen its season blow up because of it. Oh, yes, Alabama is ranked second in the BCS standings and has no intention of blowing that by getting beat in this spot.
 

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Big Al has a 2 team parlay, I think it was a big one. He has not released the second half (Sunday NFL) but the first half is on BYU -23 over UNLV.
 

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** ncaa newsletters **

hot

confidential kick off 11* (5-2-1)...florida
dave fobare (the maxx) (5-2)...illinois
ed cash (sports memo) (5-2)...virginia tech
hq report 5* (5-2-1)...arkansas
hq report ats (6-2)...penn st
marc lawrence playbook 4* (5-3)...florida
marc lawrence playbook 5* (6-2)...boston college
the red sheet 89* (10-5-1)...
Winning points best bet (11-5)...alabama...wake forest
 
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SIDELINE INSIGHT two plays in currently:
San Diego St and Florida both regular.


According to TSM,

NFL SIDELINE INSIGHTS Rank 8 65.85% 27-14
NCAAF SIDELINE INSIGHTS Rank 3 78.05% 32-9


FROM WAGNERS SITE
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Alex Smart

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->OKLAHOMA ST. +12.5

Projected score : OSU 37 Texas 35 Play on Oklahoma State 4 * to cover -Take the points
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Wunderdog

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: E. Michigan at Ball State (Saturday 10/25 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Ball State -25 (-110)

Eastern Michigan comes in off a disaster vs. Akron. They led with 30 seconds left and block an Akron game winning FG attempt. Game over, right? No! Akron picks it up and advances for a first down, calls two timeouts, and runs in for the game winning TD. So, how does this poor team bounce back from that at home? Especially when facing a rested really good Ball State team? They don't. Ball has covered every game on their schedule by double-digits on average. The offense is racking up 37.4 ppg and they are converting over 52% of third down situations. They have allowed just four sacks on the season and are rushing for over 5 yards a carry. So down and distance has favored them all season thanks to a balanced attack. Eastern Michigan has given up 37+ in five games already and hasn't faced this potent of an offense all season. Now they have to contend with it on the road, after a very emotionally disappointing loss. Ball State gets the call here.
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Sixth Sense

Boston College +2

2% Mississippi –6.5

2% Oregon –3

2% Kent +5

2% Georgia Tech –14

2% Bowling Green +7.5

2% Texas Tech +1

2% Ohio State +2.5

2% Nevada –3
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Dave Malinsky

Fresno St. @ Utah St.
PICK: Fresno St. -14.5 4*

If we wanted to completely insult your intelligence it would be easy to do that in this one – we could make a case that based on their game flows no team in the country turns it on in the fourth quarter more than the Utah State Aggies! Which is an absurdity, of course. But with a line move dropping this one right into the heart of our play range, we can go to one of our very favorite axioms in all of sports - Most truly terrible teams are even worse than they appear to be. So let’s get to work.

Why are awful teams worse than they appear to be? Because they rarely take the best punch from their opponents, and often see the other side merely going through the motions as they save energy for more important games. Because of that the scoreboards and box scores do not get a chance to fully reflect their ineptitude. Utah State is an absolute textbook example of that. Here are the scores by quarters for the Aggies so far this season –

1st Quarter – 7-75
2nd Quarter – 35-82
3rd Quarter – 9-85
4th Quarter – 66-38

So if you go back to our statement in italics in the first paragraph, you can see how the statistical case can be made. This is a team that has scored 56.4 percent of all of their points in the fourth quarter, and also has held the opposition to less than half as many points in the final period as in any other. But those numbers do not reflect a positive in any way. Rather, they are an indication of just how awful this team is, and that so much of what has happened in the final period has been a case of the opposition completely letting up, on both sides of the ball. Here is what does matter. At the end of three quarters they have been trailing by a combined 242-51. And in the first and third quarters, when both teams come out fresh, it has been a combined 160-16. That is ugly.

Now things go from bad to worse for Brent Guy and his team. Instead of an opponent looking to coast, they are going up against a fresh and rested Fresno State team coming off of a bye, and it was a break that the Bulldogs needed in the worst way, getting injured talents like WR Marlon Moore, TD Bear Pascoe, DT Jon Monga healthy again. With no distraction the Bulldogs will treat this one seriously as they focus on improving their bowl picture, which means that they mentally will not wear down late, and physically they can keep piling up the points – three of the top seven rushers in the W.A.C. operate out of this offensive backfield, a rather remarkable count. They are off of back-to-back games in which they have topped 300 yards rushing, and with only Wisconsin holding them under 5.0 yards per attempt in a game this season, they can completely wear out a defense that does not like getting hit head on.

There is also little home field advantage in Logan, where the crowds wane as each disappointing season wears on. In the Brent Guy era they have been a home underdog over the past five games of the season six times, going just 1-5 ATS. That negative count grows by one more in this one.
 
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ROCKBOXSPORTS.

3 STARS: FLORIDA -24.5 Gators are feeling good coming off the big win over LSU followed with a bye last week. We respect Kentucky, but this is a bad situation for them injury-wise. After losing top WR Dicky Lyons Jr. two weeks ago they lost top rusher RB Derrick Locke last week. DT Marcus Pryor is also out and several other defensive players are banged up. Not good news heading into The Swamp. Urban Meyer is 25-3 SU all-time with more than a week to prepare and he has showed this season that he is not afraid to pile on and get the front door cover. We don't think that will even be necessary this week. This one should be over early.

3 STARS: SMU +12 The Mustangs are a young team and they have struggled this year. However, there is talent here and June Jones' coaching is starting to take hold as the team is showing signs of improvement. After losing 3 of their first 4 by 35 ppg., SMU has played very well and been in the game in recent weeks against the likes of Tulane and Central Florida and they held fourth quarter leads against Tulsa and Houston. Young QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been improving rapidly under Jones' tutelage, throwing 8 TD's in the last two games. We think they can exploit the Navy pass defense and possibly win this one outright.

2 STARS: TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK: MICHIGAN +3.5 This game has trap written all over it. Michigan has struggled mightily and Michigan State looks primed to hammer their bitter rival. Not so fast, we say. Michigan has won the last six in this series and the last eight at home. Their offense has been decent when QB Threet is healthy and that appears to be the case here. Rich Rodriguez is no slouch as a coach and we think he'll have his team primed to pull a big surprise.

2 STARS: CINCINNATI -2.5 Bearcats have been coming on the last few weeks. Now starting QB Tony Pike returns and the defense is ramping up just in time to face a UCONN team with injury problems and uncertainty at QB. UCONN is a well-coached bunch but they were one of the more fortuitous teams in the nation last year and they may be coming to earth right about now. Cincy is the more talented team and primed for a big conference win here.

2 STARS: KENT STATE +5 The Golden Flashes may be 1-6 and 0-3 in the MAC but they have played well the last two weeks against Akron and Ohio. Their offensive line is beginning to gel and they have real weapons in QB Julian Edelman, RB Eugene Jenkins, and WR Shawn Bayes. The defense is getting healthy as well. We think they are ready for a breakthrough game this week.

2 STARS: CAL -17.5 This appears to be a mismatch on every level. UCLA has no chance to run the ball and Cal's front seven should dominate. Similarly, Cal's O-line should have its way against a banged-up UCLA front seven coming off a physical battle against Stanford. Cal has the speed advantage on the outside as well. This one could get ugly.

2 STARS: MISSISSIPPI -6.5 Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt returns to Arkansas, site of his bitter departure last year, with a grudge to bear and with the much better team. The Rebels should be motivated here and, if they can avoid turnovers, they should dispose of the Razorbacks with extreme prejudice.

1 STAR: Indiana +8, Utah St. +15, Texas -12, LSU -1, Idaho +12.5, Missouri -24.5, Middle Tennessee +10
 
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SPORTS ADVISORS

(7) Oklahoma State (7-0, 6-0 ATS) at (1) Texas (7-0 SU and ATS)

The game of the day comes from Austin, where the top-ranked Longhorns play host to No. 7 Oklahoma State as Texas plays its third straight game against a Big 12 foe ranked in the Top 15.

Texas beat archrival and top-ranked Oklahoma 45-35 as a seven-point ‘dog two weeks ago in the Red River Shootout, then showed no signs of a letdown in last week’s 56-31 home rout of then-No. 11 Missouri as a four-point chalk. QB Colt McCoy, a Heisman Trophy candidate, threw for 337 yards and two TDs and also ran for two scores against Missouri last week as Texas racked up 591 total yards and held the Tigers to 348.

Versatile QB Zach Robinson (238 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, two passing TDs) led Oklahoma State to a 34-6 blowout win over Baylor a week ago, cashing as a 17-point home favorite. The Cowboys, who upset Missouri 28-23 as a 14-point underdog in their most recent road trip two weeks ago, are riding an eight-game winning streak dating back to last November (7-0 ATS).

Mack Brown’s Longhorns have owned Oklahoma State in this series, going 20-2 all-time and outscoring the Cowboys 407-218 in winning the last 10 in a row (7-3 ATS). Last season in Stillwater, Okla., Texas rallied from a 35-14 fourth-quarter deficit to score a miracle 38-35 comeback win, cashing as a 1½-point road favorite. The last time these two met in Austin, the Longhorns rolled to a 36-10 victory as an 18½-point favorite and outgained the Cowboys by 307 yards (510-203).

This matchup features two of the nation’s top four scoring offenses, as Texas is second at 48.1 points per game and the Cowboys are fourth at 46.4 ppg. Oklahoma State ranks seventh in total offense (501.4 total yards per game) and fifth in rushing offense (283.1 rushing ypg), while the Longhorns are 10th in total offense (484 ypg), including averaging 193.4 ypg on the ground.

Both offenses are driven by outstanding quarterbacks. McCoy is completing an astounding 81.2 percent of his throws for 270.6 ypg with 19 TDs and just three INTs, and he also has 371 rushing yards (5.3 yards per carry) and six TDs on the ground. Meanwhile, Robinson is connecting on 70 percent of his throws for 213 ypg, with 14 TDs and four INTs, to go with 249 rushing yards (3.4 per carry) and five additional scores.

Oklahoma State is on ATS streaks of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 in Big 12 games, 6-1 in October, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-0 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Texas is on a slew of ATS runs, including 10-1 overall, 20-8 at home, 5-1 in conference play, 13-5 in October, 6-0 against teams with a winning record and 6-0 after a straight-up win.

The Cowboys have topped the total in 10 of their last 14 October games, but the under has been the play in their last six road contests. However, it’s been all “overs” for Texas lately, including 4-0 overall, 6-0 in Big 12 action, 25-10-1 after a straight-up win and 7-2 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the over has cashed in four of the last five series clashes between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER


(3) Penn State (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at (10) Ohio State (7-1, 2-5 ATS)

The biggest game in the Big Ten this season takes place under the lights at the Horseshoe in Columbus, where Ohio State will try to knock Penn State from the ranks of the unbeaten in a battle for sole possession of first place in the league standings.

The Buckeyes went to East Lansing, Mich., last week and walloped Michigan State 45-7 as a three-point road favorite, the team’s fifth straight victory since a 35-3 loss at then-No. 1 USC. Behind freshman QB Terrelle Pryor (116 passing yards, 72 rushing yards, 2 total TDs) and RB Beanie Wells (140 rushing yards, 2 TDs), Ohio State jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead and ended up with a 332-240 edge in total offense, including outrushing the Spartans 216-52.

Penn State played two totally different games against Michigan last week, coming out sluggish in the first half as it fell behind 17-7, only to outscore the Wolverines 39-0 the rest of the way en route to a 46-17 home victory. The Lions’ final score came on an 80-yard screen pass from backup QB Stephon Green to Pat Devlin, which allowed Penn State to miraculously cover a 24-point spread.

While the Buckeyes are riding a five-game winning streak, the Nittany Lions have won nine in a row (7-1 ATS in lined contests) dating to last year’s 24-17 Alamo Bowl victory over Texas A&M. However, Penn State hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent on the road since 2002.

Ohio State is on a 5-1 roll (4-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including last year’s 37-17 shellacking of the Lions in Happy Valley as a three-point road chalk. The Buckeyes have covered nine of the last 13 head-to-head battles and have never lost to Penn State in Columbus since the Lions joined the Big Ten in 1993 (7-0 SU and ATS). Finally, the host is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the favorite has covered in seven of those contests.

Penn State, which outgained Michigan 482-291 last week, has now scored at least 45 points in six of its eight contests this season, and Joe Paterno’s squad ranks seventh nationally in scoring offense (45.4 ppg), 11th in total offense (482 ypg) and 10th in rushing offense (234.6 ypg). On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions are sixth in scoring defense (11.8 ppg allowed), eighth in total defense (263.3 ypg allowed) and 11th in passing defense (159.4 ypg allowed).

Ohio State, which had a season high in points last week, is averaging 27 points and 322 total yards per contest (182 rushing ypg), while surrendering 13.4 points and 265.4 total yards per outing (97.1 rushing ypg). In five home victories, those defensive numbers drop to 9.6 ppg, 241.8 total ypg and 76.4 rushing ypg.

Ohio State has followed up an 0-5 ATS slide by cashing in two of its last three games. However, the Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS at home this season (all as a favorite), and going back to last season they’ve failed to cover in five straight at the Horseshoe. On the bright side, they’re on a 19-7 ATS roll in Big Ten play (2-2 this year) and they’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October outings.

In addition to their overall 7-1 ATS run, the Nittany Lions feature positive pointspread trends of 5-0-1 on the road and 11-4-1 in October, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in their last eight conference affairs (3-1 ATS this year).

The under is 3-1 in the last four clashes overall in this rivalry and 4-1 in the last five meetings at the Horseshoe, and the under is also 5-2 in the Buckeyes’ last seven games overall and 8-3 in their last 11 October outings. However, for Penn State, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten action and 4-1 in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE


Wake Forest (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (4-3, 2-4 ATS)

Wake Forest travels to South Beach for a date with the Hurricanes in an ACC showdown between two teams in desperate need of a victory.

The Demon Deacons are one of four teams tied atop the ACC’s Atlantic Division, despite only scoring one touchdown in three league games and averaging a league-low eight points per contest in conference play. Wake Forest was blanked at Maryland on Saturday 26-0, falling as a one-point ‘dog. Despite that result, the Deacons’ defense is still allowing just 12 points a game in conference action.

Miami has won two straight, including a 49-31 shootout victory at Duke last Saturday, cashing as a three-point road chalk. That snapped an 0-3 ATS drought for the Hurricanes, who have yet to cash in front of the home crowd this season. The Miami offense averages only 308 yards per game, and they use a tag-team at QB with Robert Marve (677 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs) and Jacory Harris (497 yards, 5 TDs, 3 three INTs).

These two haven’t met since 2005, when Miami went to Wake Forest and delivered a 47-17 whipping as a 16-point road chalk. In the Demon Deacons’ last trip to South Beach, they got whacked 52-7 as 18½-point road underdogs.

Wake Forest remains on ATS runs of 10-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 19-7 in October, 6-2 in ACC play, 15-5 against teams with a winning record and 9-0 following a non-cover. Conversely, Miami has been a disaster at the betting window, posting negative ATS trends of 10-22-1 overall, 12-31-1 at home, 5-15-1 in ACC play, 6-22 following an ATS win and 1-11 at home against a team with a winning road record.

For the Demon Deacons, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-2 in ACC games and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. The under is also 25-9 in Miami’s last 34 home games, but otherwise, the Hurricanes are on over streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in conference action and 8-2 against teams with a winning record.

ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST


(23) Boston College (5-1, 3-2 ATS) at North Carolina (5-2, 3-3 ATS)

Boston College guns for its fifth straight win – and third straight in ACC play – when it heads to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C., to take on the Tar Heels.

The Eagles scored a 28-23 victory over then-No. 17 Virginia Tech a week ago, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The victory avenged Boston College’s loss to the Hokies in last year’s ACC Championship game as it rallied from a 10-0 deficit and overcame two INT returns for touchdowns to get the win. The Eagles’ defense, which ranks fourth in the country in surrendering just 251 yards per contest, helped secure the victory, allowing Virginia Tech just 240 total yards (90 passing yards).

North Carolina had a three-game winning streak snapped in last week’s mistake-filled 16-13 overtime loss at Virginia as a 3½-point chalk. Junior QB Cameron Sexton threw two INTs, and the defense gave up a tying touchdown in the final minute after holding the Cavaliers without a TD the first 59 minutes. Tar Heels RB Shaun Draughn ran for a career-high 138 yards as North Carolina outrushed Virginia by 108 yards (166-58).

These teams haven’t met since 2005, when North Carolina won 16-14 as a four-point home ‘dog. The previous year, they met in the Continental Tire Bowl, and Boston College rolled 37-24 as a 2½-point pup.

The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight October contests, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 1-4 in ACC action and 0-5 after a spread-cover. The Tar Heels are on pointspread streaks of 9-4 against teams with a winning record, 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road record and 4-1 after a non-cover.

Boston College is on under runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-3 following an ATS win and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. For the Tar Heels, the over is 4-1 in their last five against a team with a winning record, 9-4 following a non-cover and 7-3-1 following a SU defeat. Most recently, the over is 3-0 in the Eagles’ last three overall and 3-1 in UNC’s last four.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(2) Alabama (7-0, 4-3 ATS) at Tennessee (3-4, 4-3 ATS)

The Crimson Tide try to keep their perfect season intact when they visit Neyland Stadium for an SEC clash against Tennessee.

Alabama is the only undefeated team left in the SEC after holding on for a 24-20 home win over Mississippi last week, failing to cover the 12½-point line. The Crimson Tide led 24-3 at the half but had to hang on in the fourth quarter, stopping Ole Miss on a fourth down near midfield late in the game to wrap up the win. QB John Parker Wilson, who threw for 219 yards and two TDs against the Rebels, had a career-high 363 passing yards and three TDs a year ago against the Vols, running his total to 521 yards in two matchups with Tennessee.

The Volunteers are coming off a 34-3 blowout win over Mississippi State in Knoxville, easily cashing as a 9½-point favorite. Tennessee rushed for 139 yards and passed for 136 against the Bulldogs, and got a pair of fourth-quarter defensive TDs to seal the win, including a 72-yard interception return from sophomore Eric Berry, who has 10 career picks and is the SEC’s all-time leader in interception return yards with 397.

Alabama leads the all-time series with Tennessee 45-38-7, and they trounced the Vols 41-17 a season ago as one-point home ‘dogs. The host has won the last four in this rivalry, but the Tide are 3-0-1 ATS in those four and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Knoxville. Finally, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the straight-up winner is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.

Alabama is on ATS slides of 8-20 against teams with a losing record, 3-8 in SEC play, 3-9 following a non-cover and 1-4 in October, but the Crimson Tide are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on the highway. Tennessee is on ATS streaks of 6-1-1 against teams with a winning record, 4-1-1 in SEC action, 4-1 as a home underdog and 6-2 in October kickoffs.

The under is 11-4 in Alabama’s last 15 October games and 15-6 in its last 21 against teams with a losing record. The Vols are on a plethora of under runs, including 12-2 overall, 35-16-3 at home, 5-0 in SEC action, 4-0 in October, 35-16-2 following a spread-cover and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the under is 3-1 in this rivalry dating to 2004.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


(9) Georgia (6-1, 2-3-1 ATS) at (11) LSU (5-1, 2-3 ATS)

After splitting a pair of tough SEC road games, LSU finally returns home to Baton Rouge for another difficult conference test against the ninth-ranked Bulldogs.

A week after getting throttled 51-31 at Florida, the Tigers went to South Carolina last Saturday and rallied for a 24-17 victory over the Gamecocks as a 2½-point road favorite. LSU’s defense forced three turnovers, and the Tigers outrushed South Carolina 164-39 in the victory.

Georgia has rebounded from its first defeat of the season – a 41-30 home setback to Alabama on Sept. 27 – with a pair of double-digit home wins over Tennessee (26-14) and Vanderbilt (24-14). However, the Bulldogs failed to cash in both contests, despite finishing with a 249-yard edge in total offense against Tennessee and a 180-yard advantage versus Vandy. Georgia has followed up a 6-0-1 ATS run with three straight non-covers.

These schools last met in the 2005 SEC Championship Game, when the Bulldogs skewered LSU 34-14 as a two-point underdog. The host is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings, and the winner has covered in nine of the last 10, including the last four in a row.

The Dawgs are on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup and 6-2 against winning teams, but they’ve now failed to cover in nine of their last 11 October affairs. Meanwhile, despite last week’s win and cover at South Carolina, LSU is still mired in pointspread funks of 5-10-1 overall, 2-6-1 at home, 3-8-1 in SEC action and 1-4 in October.

The last three meetings between these teams have climbed over the total, and the over is also on runs for LSU of 11-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 9-2 in SEC action and 4-1 in October. On the other hand, Georgia has stayed under the total in four of its last five overall, four of its last five SEC games, five of its last six in October and 10 of its last 14 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA

Virginia Tech (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at (24) Florida State (5-1, 2-2 ATS)
Virginia Tech hits the road for an ACC battle for the second straight week when it travels to Tallahassee, Fla., to take on the surging Seminoles.
The Hokies jumped out to a 10-0 lead and returned two interceptions for touchdowns last week at Boston College, but it wasn’t good enough as they fell 28-23 as a three-point road underdog. The loss snapped Virginia Tech’s five-game overall and seven-game ACC road winning streaks, and Frank Beamer’s team, which got outgained 300-240 at B.C., is now in a 2-5 ATS slump going back to last year’s Orange Bowl loss to Kansas.
Florida State ran its winning streak to three in a row with last Thursday’s come-from-behind 26-17 victory at North Carolina State, though it failed to cover as a 10½-point chalk. Sophomore QB Christian Ponder was outstanding (23-for-35 for 254 yards, one TD, no INTs) in helping the Seminoles pile up 392 total yards. Bobby Bowden’s offense has put up an average of 35.3 points per game in its last three contests since a 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest.
The Hokies outscored Florida State 20-0 in the fourth quarter last year en route to a 40-21 victory as a seven-point home favorite, the school’s first win in 16 tries against Florida State. Virginia Tech, which had a 396-267 advantage in total offense in last year’s victory, also snapped an 0-3 ATS slide against the ‘Noles.
Despite its current pointspread woes, Va-Tech still enters this contest on positive ATS streaks of 19-7 on the highway, 24-8 in ACC play, 17-4 as an underdog, 12-3 as a road pup since 2001, 6-2 following a SU defeat and 11-5 in October. Meanwhile, Florida State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a home favorite, 1-4 ATS in its last five after a victory, 2-6 ATS in its last eight in October and 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight versus winning teams.
The over is 8-3 in the Hokies’ last 11 road games, 9-3 in FSU’s last 12 in October and 3-1 in the last four series meetings. However, five of the Seminoles’ last seven contests in Tallahassee have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and OVER

(14) South Florida (6-1, 2-4 ATS) at Louisville (4-2, 3-2 ATS)
Louisville tries for its first three-game winning streak since 2006 when it welcomes No. 14 South Florida to Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium for a Big East tussle.
The Cardinals resume Big East play after a couple of non-conference wins and covers over Memphis (35-28 as a 5½-point road favorite) and Middle Tennessee (42-33 as a 14½-point home chalk). In last week’s victory over Middle Tennessee, Louisville rallied from a 17-14 halftime deficit to score 28 unanswered points before giving up a meaningless touchdown with 36 seconds remaining in the game. The Cardinals finished with 391 yards (247 rushing) and gave up 306 (105 on the ground).
South Florida bounced back from its first setback of the season – a stunning 26-21 home loss to Pitt – by throttling Syracuse 45-13 last week as a 23½-point home chalk. QB Matt Grothe went 16-for-26 for 248 yards, with three TDs and no picks, and he also ran for a TD as the Bulls racked up advantages of 487-230 in total yards, 239-101 in rushing yards and 26-11 in first downs.
The Cardinals will have payback in mind today as they look to avenge last year’s ugly 55-17 loss at South Florida as a nine-point road underdog. In that one, South Florida led 41-10 at the half and tallied 481 total yards (230 on the ground) while forcing an astonishing seven turnovers. The home team has won and covered all five meetings in this rivalry over the past five years, the last four decided by 25 points or more.
South Florida is stuck in pointspread ruts of 2-5 overall, 3-6 as a road favorite, 2-5 in October, 1-5 after a SU victory and 0-7 against winning teams, but the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big East contests. Louisville is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog, but 4-9 ATS in its last 13 on grass.
The over is on runs of 6-2 for Louisville overall, 16-7 for Louisville in October contests, 8-2-1 for South Florida overall, 6-2-1 for South Florida on the highway, 4-1-1 for South Florida in league contests and 7-3 for South Florida in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(8) Texas Tech (7-0, 2-3 ATS) at (19) Kansas (5-2, 4-2 ATS)
Kansas attempts to bounce back from a humbling loss at Oklahoma when it entertains unbeaten Texas Tech at Memorial Stadium in a Big 12 battle.
The Jayhawks kept things close for a half at Norman, Okla., last week, but eventually succumbed to the Sooners 45-31. Kansas did get a touchdown with 58 seconds to play to sneak in the backdoor and cover as a 19½-point road underdog. Although they racked up 491 yards of total offense, the Jayhawks surrendered a whopping 674 total yards (206 rushing) as their three-game winning steak came to a halt.
One week after surviving a scare at home against Nebraska (37-31 overtime win), the Red Raiders went to Texas A&M and struggled for a half before rallying for a comfortable 43-25 victory, outscoring the Aggies 25-2 in the second half. However, Texas Tech came up short as a 21-point road favorite, the team’s second straight non-cover. The Red Raiders, who have won nine straight games, finished with 561 total yards, but committed three turnovers.
These teams last met in 2005 at Texas Tech, and the Red Raiders prevailed 30-17 but failed to cash as an 18½-point chalk. Kansas has covered the last three meetings, but Texas Tech has won five of the last six SU going back to 1996. Finally, the underdog has been the play in each of the last four battles.
Texas Tech is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road underdog, while Kansas is on pointspread runs of 21-6 overall, 21-8 at home, 10-1 as a home chalk, 23-9 on artificial turf, 13-3 in conference play and 8-1 in October. In fact, the Jayhawks have won 13 consecutive home games (10-1 ATS in lined contests), but none of those were against ranked foes.
For the Red Raiders, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 7-3 in Big 12 action and 6-1 on turf. The under is also 5-0 in Kansas’ last five home games and 4-0 in its last four on turf. Finally, the last two meetings between these schools stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER

Colorado (4-3, 2-4 ATS) at (16) Missouri (5-2, 3-3 ATS)
Missouri will try to get back in the win column for the first time in three weeks when it hosts Colorado in a Big 12 North clash at Faurot Field in Columbia.
The Tigers’ dreams of a national championship season have gone up in flames the last two weeks with losses to Oklahoma State (28-23 as a 14-point home favorite) and top-ranked Texas (56-31 as a four-point road underdog). In last week’s ugly outing in Austin, Missouri fell behind 35-3 at halftime and ended up getting outgained 591-343, including 203-30 on the ground.
Colorado snapped a three-game slide with its first Big 12 victory of the season, a 14-13 win over Kansas State, though the Buffaloes came up short as a 3½-point home favorite, falling to 0-4 ATS over the past month. Colorado has scored exactly 14 points in three straight games, but after giving up an average of 35.7 points in its previous three contests, it yielded a season-low 13 points to the high-scoring Wildcats.
Missouri went to Boulder last year and thumped the Buffaloes 55-10, piling up 598 total yards (and allowing 196) as a 3½-point road favorite. The Tigers have won and covered the last two meetings after Colorado started the decade on a 5-0-1 ATS roll against Mizzou.
Colorado is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games since 2005 (0-3 ATS this year), and the Buffs are on further ATS nosedives of 1-5 in Big 12 play, 1-6 in October, 7-19 against winning teams and 3-7 when playing on grass. Conversely, despite what’s happened the last two weeks, the Tigers are still 15-6 ATS in their last 21 overall, 13-6 ATS in their last 19 at home, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU defeat.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven series meetings, with the last three in a row topping the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER

(6) USC (5-1, 4-1 ATS) at Arizona (5-2 SU and ATS)
Coming off their second straight shutout – and one of the most lopsided victories in school history – USC takes to the road for the second consecutive week when it invades Arizona Stadium for a meeting with the upset-minded Wildcats.
After blanking Arizona State 28-0 on Oct. 11, the Trojans went to Washington State last week and humiliated the Cougars 69-0, easily covering despite being a ridiculous 43-point favorite. QB Mark Sanchez set a school record with five first-half touchdowns passes as USC took a 41-0 halftime lead, and the Trojans finished with 625 total yards while allowing 116. It was the Trojans’ biggest shutout win since a 69-0 rout of Montana in 1931.
USC is working on a 10-quarter scoreless string, having outscored opponents 131-0 during this stretch. The Trojans are allowing an average of 7.8 points, 220.2 total yards and 136.5 passing yards per game, figures that rank first, second and first, respectively, in the nation.
Arizona bounced back from a heartbreaking one-point loss at Stanford with last Saturday’s mild 42-27 upset win over Cal as a 2½-point home underdog. The Wildcats outscored the 25th-ranked Bears 28-3 in the second half to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS at home, where they are averaging a whopping 50.2 points and 456.5 total yards per game and giving up 14.2 points and 256.2 yards per contest.
USC is in the midst of a six-game winning streak against the Wildcats dating to 2001, but Arizona has covered the last three in a row, all as a three-touchdown underdog or more. Last year, the Wildcats went to L.A. and took a 13-10 lead into the fourth quarter before falling 20-13 as a 21-point pup. The visitor has cashed in five of the last seven meetings.
The Trojans are riding pointspread runs of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on grass. They’re also 27-12 ATS in their past 39 games after scoring more than 40 points the previous week, but they’re still 4-11 ATS in their last 15 October outings. Meanwhile, Arizona is on ATS streaks of 9-2 overall, 6-0 at home, 7-1 in Pac-10 play, 8-2 on grass and 5-0 versus winning teams. However, they’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine when coming off a 40-plus-point offensive outburst.
The under is on streaks of 20-8 for USC overall, 20-6 for USC in conference, 18-5 for USC on grass, 6-1 for USC in October, 15-7 for Arizona on grass and 12-5-1 for Arizona in October. Finally, the last two head-to-head battles between these schools have stayed low, which comes on the heels of a 4-1 “over” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
 
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MATT RIVERS:

HIGHEST RATED 300,000* OF THE SEASON Plus Bonus Locks
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1. 300,000♦ Kansas

2. 75,000♦ South Florida

3. 75,000♦ Colorado

4. 75,000♦ Tennessee

5. 50,000♦ Arizona





1. Texas Tech certainly has that great offense with Graham Harrell and an unreal wide receiver in Michael Crabtree but this team is half a fraud and not close to being the sixth or so best team in the country. To ask them to win this game on the road is beyond silly and that is fully knowing how KU just struggled mightily against the pass of Sam Bradford and Oklahoma.Kansas is not going to win the National Championship and without Aqib Talib this season may not even be as stout as last year's squad but these guys are no joke as the fat cookie eating Mark Mangino has his KU boys playing at a very high level once again.
Todd Reesing is just so solid and a guy that you can totally depend on. He may not be able to fling it 80 yards or gun it in there like a John Elway but the guy does not make many mistakes and runs the show in great fashion. Throw in Jake Sharp and Dezmon Briscoe and a monster advantage of being at home and for the Rock Chalk Jayhawk to only have to win the game in order to grab the cash is a joke!
Tech is what it is, nothing is really any better this season than in years' past. Mike Leach' offense can put up points but overall the team is not the same on the road as in Lubbock and the defense is extremely sketchy as always and will come up short against a semi beast on the highway. They have still played nobody. At home they needed overtime to get past Nebraska and were just losing at the half against a terrible A&M squad. The signs are there, it's just a matter of us capitalizing on this blowout today as that is what will happen Tech is 7-0 right now and ranked very highly. You will look back in a month when they are 7-4 and unranked and see how easy this really was!





2. Laying points on the road is never the greatest way to go and South Florida at times can lay an egg but this Louisville team is just awful. Steve Kragthorpe has destroyed this program as the Cardinals are just not good at all. Last season with Brohm and Douglas and Urrutia we saw a talented talented squad that underachieved to the max under the new coach. This season though the cupboard is a lot more bare and even at Papa John should get completely outclassed.
I watched the 'Ville a bunch of times and they are terrible. At home against Kentucky they were embarassed getting shut out if not for a safety and UL looked horrific in that luckier than lucky win at Memphis a few weeks ago as they scored three special teams/defensive touchdowns in order to win while being badly outplayed by a Tiger team that is mediocre at the very very best and had its backup Quarterback playing.George Selvie is unreal and will get in Hunter Cantwell's grill throughout. On the other side of the ball Grothe, Ford and the Bulls will have their way and in the end this thing has 31-14 SF written all over it!





3. Missouri's offense is unreal and Colorado's has been struggling mightily which is certainly scary but the Tigers just lost back-to-back games and were destroyed by Colt McCoy and Texas in Austin so asking them to now win a game going away is too much.Sure Chase Daniel, Jeremy Macklin, Chase Kauffman and the home boys will flex their collective muscles a bit and put up some points but after losing at home to Okie State and looking as putrid as they did last weak this number is just way too much. You know that Gary Pinkel's team is not nearly as confident as they were before this skid and with the number climbing from around three touchdowns to close to four touchdowns it is just a total no-brainer.Cody Hawkins and the Buffalos offensive is certainly challenged a bit and have been relatively awful but this is still a rivalry and a game that I can see them be competitive in with the situation at hand. For gosh sakes this is still a Colorado program that has some athletes and pride. They were able to beat Pat White and West Virginia earlier in the season and have enough of an upside to stay in this gargantuan number.I can totally see 34-21 and a beyond easy cover as the Tigers are just looking for a win now. To ask them to pull away more than likely is not in the cards!





4. Forget about what Alabama did in Georgia in that game about a month ago. That is just one of those things that every once in a blue moon will happen when all of the stars align in a crazy way.Sure the Tide is a talented team that can run the ball with Glen Coffee and John Parker Wilson is a solid Quarterback. They also boast a quality defense as well but on the road like this at night in Knoxville and laying a handsome number!??!!?!? Come on!??!!?
Tennessee is having a rough season I understand that and the offense is not very good I understand that as well but this is still Phil Fulmer's Vols at home, at night, plus almost a touchdown!?!?!? UT was able to be competitive and cover in Athens a few weeks back and did just get some things going in the burial and easy cover over Mississippi State. With Arian Foster the men in orange can still be scary on the ground. Obviously Jonathan Crompton was not very good and it cost him his job but the way UT has been showing some improvement and the way the BCS goes this is the perfect spot for yet another top team to fall from the ranks of the undefeated.Winning on the road in the SEC is very very tough, forget about how the Tide rolled in Athens as that was a complete aberation. Alabama is overvalued here and many more times than not will not cover this game.





5. I'll roll with Arizona for sure here as the Wildcats have been unreal at home this season and tonight is their biggest game of all as they welcome in big bad USC.
I still do not trust Pete Carroll's offense. No doubt the Trojans' defense is hard hitting and bad to the bone with Malaluga and others flying around the field but with Joe McKnight banged up I can totally see Mark Sanchez and company look mediocre unlike last week's 69 point performance against possibly thee single most pathetic team in the nation in Washington State. Paul Wulf by the way should fall off a cliff as the Cougars are the most disgusting thing I have ever seen!
Willie Tuitama and Arizona's offense is no joke. They were down 10 last week at home to Cal and came out of the lockeroom on-fire in a blowout win over a competent Golden Bears squad. Also look back to last season when Mike Stoopes had his squad ready against a top team in the nation in Oregon. Yes the Ducks lost Dennis Dixon in that game which hurt but Arizona was still ready to play that day in the easy win.



I will not at all be shocked to see the Trojans play like they did in Oregon State and for this game to be competitive until the end. The Wildcats are phenomenal at home, unlike on the road where they lost in Stanford and New Mexico. This team is going to be as jacked as can be and ready to go here against a USC team that still has a huge target on their chests.
Do not be shocked by a shocker here as the upside of the 'Cats is certainly there!
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Bob Majors

Mississippi-6.5 vs Arkansas

The Mississippi Rebel (3-4; 1-2) travel to the Arkansas Razorback (3-4; 2-2) in a Saturday evening game.The Rebels have RB Dexter McCluster who has been erradick and plagued by turnovers. He has great abilities to move the offense and has to show on the field Saturday. The Rebels defensive front has been great against the run and has to make the Razorback abandon the running game to help them win this game. The Razorbacks have to maintain an offensive balance and has to be effective throwing the ball. RB Michael Smith had a standout game against Kentucky last week rushing for 192 yars and two touchdowns. The defensive has been lackluster as they allowed Kentucky to come back from a 20-7 deficit and beat the Razorbacks 21-20.The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass; 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games; and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.The Razorbacks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

I like the Rebels to win by a good margin as we suggest giving the points and taking the Rebels on the road.


Hawaii +3.5 vs Nevada

The Nevada Wofpack (4-3; 2-1) travel to the islands to visit the Hawaii Rainbows (3-4; 2-1) in a WAC conference game. The Rainbows are double tough at Aloha Stadium and will pose a problem to the Wolfpack.The high scoring Wolfpack have scored at least 45 points for the fourth straight game with a 44-17 defeat of Utah State last week. QB Colin Kaepernick threw for a touchdown and ran for two more as they stomped the Aggies at home. He was 1020 for 197 yards with one interception. The Warriors lost to Boise State on the road by a 27-7 score. QB Inoke Funaki was 17-34 for 188 yards and 5 interceptions.The Wolf Pack are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Warries are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

We like the Warriors getting the points at home.


Georgia Tech -14.5 vs Virginia

Two ACC teams that are playing well meet in a Saturday Afternoon Tilt. The Virgina Cavaliers (4-3; 3-1) meet the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1; 3-1) in an ACC dog fight.After a stumbling start, Virginia has become a factor in the ACC race by winning three straight includinga 16-13 overtime win over North Carolina last Saturday.Georgia Tech beat Clemson 21-17 last week to jump into the top 25 and are on top of the ACC. Their defense ranks in the top 10 in the country in eight separate categories and rank fifth in the nation in scoring defense at 11.6 ppg.The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games while the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games overall.

We like the the Yellow Jackets at home to explode and win convincingly. Give the points and take the Jackets at home.
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