vegas-runner | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
151 Kent St. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 152 Miami (Ohio)
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* BEST BET ***
(UPLOADED WED MORNING as EARLY STEAM)
(BOUGHT BACK 1* on MIAMI O -4 -120 for a MIDDLE OPPORTUNITY)
*** Guys, I am aware of the line-move on Thursday that made this now +5.5 at most shops...as I advised in today's thread...for those who didn't have access to getting down Wed Morning when I uploaded the play, or even last night when it was still 6.5 and better...I suggest you hold off until game-day because as explained in the thread...the threat of a "buy back" is definately there, and the public money on game-day should also drive this number back up at least to 6...barring any injury, suspension, or weather reasoning behind the "steam"...I will make sure to continue tracking the number and gathering what info I can, and also make sure that I pass along my suggestions...both here and in the forums...VR ***
This is also going to be my Pod-Cast Play for the Week...and I wanted to make sure that I first Upload it for my Subscribers, so that you are able to go out and get the best number possible, because I have been informed that this will most likely receive another "Buy Order" from the outfits, which may even force the books to take it down to 6.5...even though they definately expect the betting public to come in one-sided on Miami O on Saturday...
I went ahead and made this a 3* Best Bet because it definately warrents it, and since we are getting what should be the best number (barring any late developments due to injury), and can always come back and lay 1* the other way and possibly nail ourselves a middle...VR
Sat, 10/25/08 - 7:45 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
146 Tennessee 6.0 (-110) Bodog vs 145 Alabama
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
Bodog, as well as all the MGM/Mirage properties and a few of the locals I use all have this at 6...But I have seen a lot of off-shore books go to 5/5.5 due to the sharp money...Although the public money will continue to come in on Alabama, especially since this is the Night ESPN Match-Up...so you shouldn't have a problem getting 6, even if you are forced to BUY the HOOK...which I highly recommend...VR
Sat, 10/25/08 - 10:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB MoneyLine Double-Dime Bet
148 Arizona St. (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 147 Oregon
Analysis:
** NCAAFB 2* TEASER PLAY **
(12pm est Kick-Off for Northwestern)
WAKE FOREST +10 & ARIZONA ST +10.5...Teaser...
Sorry for any Confusion, the SIDE we want is WAKE FOREST not NWestern...VR
BONUS BREEDERS BETS : (4 Units Wagered in All)
RACE 3 (DIRT MILE) 1* :
1.) #3 SLEW'S TIZZY (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
2.) MY PAL CHARLIE (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
RACE 5 (JUVENILE) 2* BEST BET :
1.) #1 MUNNINGS (1* WIN & 1* PLACE)
RACE 9 (CLASSIC) 1* :
1.) #4 DUKE OF MARMALADE (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
2.) #2 CASINO DRIVE (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
TRI-BOX OPINION for CLASSIC = 4, 2, 12, 9
Sat, 10/25/08 - 3:30 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
152 Miami (Ohio) -4.0 (-110) SportBet vs 151 Kent St.
Analysis:
* 1* "BUY BACK" WAGER *
Guys, this is the exact reason that I went ahead and made KENT a 3* on Wednesday Morning...and with the "Steam" pushing it down to 4, there was no way I could pass up the chance for the middle...Ace
** I have been informed that the number will drop even lower, so if you haven't pulled the trigger...you should wait for the possibility to take it down to 3 or 3.5 on the Buy **
Sat, 10/25/08 - 3:30 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
125 Rutgers 10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 126 Pittsburgh
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER
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151 Kent St. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 152 Miami (Ohio)
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* BEST BET ***
(UPLOADED WED MORNING as EARLY STEAM)
(BOUGHT BACK 1* on MIAMI O -4 -120 for a MIDDLE OPPORTUNITY)
*** Guys, I am aware of the line-move on Thursday that made this now +5.5 at most shops...as I advised in today's thread...for those who didn't have access to getting down Wed Morning when I uploaded the play, or even last night when it was still 6.5 and better...I suggest you hold off until game-day because as explained in the thread...the threat of a "buy back" is definately there, and the public money on game-day should also drive this number back up at least to 6...barring any injury, suspension, or weather reasoning behind the "steam"...I will make sure to continue tracking the number and gathering what info I can, and also make sure that I pass along my suggestions...both here and in the forums...VR ***
This is also going to be my Pod-Cast Play for the Week...and I wanted to make sure that I first Upload it for my Subscribers, so that you are able to go out and get the best number possible, because I have been informed that this will most likely receive another "Buy Order" from the outfits, which may even force the books to take it down to 6.5...even though they definately expect the betting public to come in one-sided on Miami O on Saturday...
I went ahead and made this a 3* Best Bet because it definately warrents it, and since we are getting what should be the best number (barring any late developments due to injury), and can always come back and lay 1* the other way and possibly nail ourselves a middle...VR
Sat, 10/25/08 - 7:45 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
146 Tennessee 6.0 (-110) Bodog vs 145 Alabama
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
Bodog, as well as all the MGM/Mirage properties and a few of the locals I use all have this at 6...But I have seen a lot of off-shore books go to 5/5.5 due to the sharp money...Although the public money will continue to come in on Alabama, especially since this is the Night ESPN Match-Up...so you shouldn't have a problem getting 6, even if you are forced to BUY the HOOK...which I highly recommend...VR
Sat, 10/25/08 - 10:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB MoneyLine Double-Dime Bet
148 Arizona St. (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 147 Oregon
Analysis:
** NCAAFB 2* TEASER PLAY **
(12pm est Kick-Off for Northwestern)
WAKE FOREST +10 & ARIZONA ST +10.5...Teaser...
Sorry for any Confusion, the SIDE we want is WAKE FOREST not NWestern...VR
BONUS BREEDERS BETS : (4 Units Wagered in All)
RACE 3 (DIRT MILE) 1* :
1.) #3 SLEW'S TIZZY (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
2.) MY PAL CHARLIE (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
RACE 5 (JUVENILE) 2* BEST BET :
1.) #1 MUNNINGS (1* WIN & 1* PLACE)
RACE 9 (CLASSIC) 1* :
1.) #4 DUKE OF MARMALADE (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
2.) #2 CASINO DRIVE (1/4* WIN & 1/4* PLACE)
TRI-BOX OPINION for CLASSIC = 4, 2, 12, 9
Sat, 10/25/08 - 3:30 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
152 Miami (Ohio) -4.0 (-110) SportBet vs 151 Kent St.
Analysis:
* 1* "BUY BACK" WAGER *
Guys, this is the exact reason that I went ahead and made KENT a 3* on Wednesday Morning...and with the "Steam" pushing it down to 4, there was no way I could pass up the chance for the middle...Ace
** I have been informed that the number will drop even lower, so if you haven't pulled the trigger...you should wait for the possibility to take it down to 3 or 3.5 on the Buy **
Sat, 10/25/08 - 3:30 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
125 Rutgers 10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 126 Pittsburgh
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER
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Marc Lawrence
TITLE: Double Perfect 5* College Game!
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Ohio State
Note: The Buckeyes look to redeem themselves and in the process move back into the BCS title game hunt when they play host to high-flying Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus this evening. It's been a storybook season for the Lions, who enter tonight's game 8-0 this year. A closer look at their schedule reveals the win-loss record of the lined teams they've faced this season to be just 14-30 combined. (FYI: OSU's lined opponent's are 24-20 combined.) To further complicate matters, Penn State has shown a tendency to struggle on the road against winning teams. That's confirmed by their 0-12 ATS mark as a road favorite off a SU and ATS win and cover of more than 4 points when taking on a greater than .500 opponent as they are 0-12 ATS in this roles since 1990. On the other side of the coin, Ohio State is 7-0 SU and ATS as as host in this series since Penn State entered the Big 10 conference. More importantly, the Buckeyes are 49-5 SU at home under Jim Tressel, including 27-1 when they are allowing less than 14 points per game on the season. From our database we discovered these two powerful angles... The first tells us to: Play On any conference home dog if they were a bowl team last season that allows less than 14 PPG whose offense rushes the ball for 148 or more YPG. These teams are 10-0 ATS since 1990. The clincher is an angle that tells us to: Play Against any undefeated Game Eight or greater road pick or favorite versus a .770 or great opponent if both teams scored more than 17 points in their last game. That's because these unbeaten teams feel the pressure in these games, going 0-14-1 ATS since 1980. Look for the Buckeyes to pull the rug out from under the Nittany Lions on their strong home field today. Ohio State is our 5* College Game of the Month selection.
We recommend a 5-unit play on Ohio State.
Marc Lawrence
TITLE: Double Perfect 5* College Game!
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Ohio State
Note: The Buckeyes look to redeem themselves and in the process move back into the BCS title game hunt when they play host to high-flying Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus this evening. It's been a storybook season for the Lions, who enter tonight's game 8-0 this year. A closer look at their schedule reveals the win-loss record of the lined teams they've faced this season to be just 14-30 combined. (FYI: OSU's lined opponent's are 24-20 combined.) To further complicate matters, Penn State has shown a tendency to struggle on the road against winning teams. That's confirmed by their 0-12 ATS mark as a road favorite off a SU and ATS win and cover of more than 4 points when taking on a greater than .500 opponent as they are 0-12 ATS in this roles since 1990. On the other side of the coin, Ohio State is 7-0 SU and ATS as as host in this series since Penn State entered the Big 10 conference. More importantly, the Buckeyes are 49-5 SU at home under Jim Tressel, including 27-1 when they are allowing less than 14 points per game on the season. From our database we discovered these two powerful angles... The first tells us to: Play On any conference home dog if they were a bowl team last season that allows less than 14 PPG whose offense rushes the ball for 148 or more YPG. These teams are 10-0 ATS since 1990. The clincher is an angle that tells us to: Play Against any undefeated Game Eight or greater road pick or favorite versus a .770 or great opponent if both teams scored more than 17 points in their last game. That's because these unbeaten teams feel the pressure in these games, going 0-14-1 ATS since 1980. Look for the Buckeyes to pull the rug out from under the Nittany Lions on their strong home field today. Ohio State is our 5* College Game of the Month selection.
We recommend a 5-unit play on Ohio State.
TITLE: Double Perfect 5* College Game!
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Ohio State
Note: The Buckeyes look to redeem themselves and in the process move back into the BCS title game hunt when they play host to high-flying Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus this evening. It's been a storybook season for the Lions, who enter tonight's game 8-0 this year. A closer look at their schedule reveals the win-loss record of the lined teams they've faced this season to be just 14-30 combined. (FYI: OSU's lined opponent's are 24-20 combined.) To further complicate matters, Penn State has shown a tendency to struggle on the road against winning teams. That's confirmed by their 0-12 ATS mark as a road favorite off a SU and ATS win and cover of more than 4 points when taking on a greater than .500 opponent as they are 0-12 ATS in this roles since 1990. On the other side of the coin, Ohio State is 7-0 SU and ATS as as host in this series since Penn State entered the Big 10 conference. More importantly, the Buckeyes are 49-5 SU at home under Jim Tressel, including 27-1 when they are allowing less than 14 points per game on the season. From our database we discovered these two powerful angles... The first tells us to: Play On any conference home dog if they were a bowl team last season that allows less than 14 PPG whose offense rushes the ball for 148 or more YPG. These teams are 10-0 ATS since 1990. The clincher is an angle that tells us to: Play Against any undefeated Game Eight or greater road pick or favorite versus a .770 or great opponent if both teams scored more than 17 points in their last game. That's because these unbeaten teams feel the pressure in these games, going 0-14-1 ATS since 1980. Look for the Buckeyes to pull the rug out from under the Nittany Lions on their strong home field today. Ohio State is our 5* College Game of the Month selection.
We recommend a 5-unit play on Ohio State.
Marc Lawrence
TITLE: Double Perfect 5* College Game!
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Ohio State
Note: The Buckeyes look to redeem themselves and in the process move back into the BCS title game hunt when they play host to high-flying Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus this evening. It's been a storybook season for the Lions, who enter tonight's game 8-0 this year. A closer look at their schedule reveals the win-loss record of the lined teams they've faced this season to be just 14-30 combined. (FYI: OSU's lined opponent's are 24-20 combined.) To further complicate matters, Penn State has shown a tendency to struggle on the road against winning teams. That's confirmed by their 0-12 ATS mark as a road favorite off a SU and ATS win and cover of more than 4 points when taking on a greater than .500 opponent as they are 0-12 ATS in this roles since 1990. On the other side of the coin, Ohio State is 7-0 SU and ATS as as host in this series since Penn State entered the Big 10 conference. More importantly, the Buckeyes are 49-5 SU at home under Jim Tressel, including 27-1 when they are allowing less than 14 points per game on the season. From our database we discovered these two powerful angles... The first tells us to: Play On any conference home dog if they were a bowl team last season that allows less than 14 PPG whose offense rushes the ball for 148 or more YPG. These teams are 10-0 ATS since 1990. The clincher is an angle that tells us to: Play Against any undefeated Game Eight or greater road pick or favorite versus a .770 or great opponent if both teams scored more than 17 points in their last game. That's because these unbeaten teams feel the pressure in these games, going 0-14-1 ATS since 1980. Look for the Buckeyes to pull the rug out from under the Nittany Lions on their strong home field today. Ohio State is our 5* College Game of the Month selection.
We recommend a 5-unit play on Ohio State.
Matt Fargo
TITLE: **9** #1 Pac 10 Play This Season (87.5%)**
REASON FOR PICK: **9** #1 Pac 10 Play This Season (87.5%)** Arizona St. is struggling both offensively and defensively. Ever since that overtime upset loss to UNLV, the Sun Devils have not been right and there is no evidence that they are going to suddenly turn it around. The offense has scored a total of 44 points over the last four games while the defense has allowed 102 points for an average scoring differential of 14.5 ppg. Arizona has been outgained in its last three games and even though the last two were on the road, a return home won’t matter.
The Ducks rebounded from that loss against USC by taking out UCLA in their last game prior to the bye week. The game against the Trojans was a complete disaster as Oregon was outgained by 359 yards and that marked the only game this season that the Ducks have been outgained. They have won both of their other road games against Purdue and Washington St. and while both of those teams are bad, the competition this Saturday is not that much better.
The quarterback situation has been a mess in Oregon this season with three signal callers playing the majority of the time due to injuries. It has not mattered however as the Ducks have been rolling with their running game and they once again have a big edge here. Based on my rushing efficiency rankings, Oregon is 3rd in the nation as it is averaging 275.1 ypg on 5.8 ypc while playing the nation’s 57th ranked schedule. Arizona St. is 37th in my rushing efficiency rankings, allowing 143.8 ypg and ranked 65th in national rankings.
On the other side, the Sun Devils rely heavily on the pass as they are ranked 117th in the country in rushing offense, averaging a mere 83.7 ypg on 2.8 ypc. Oregon is strong against the run on defense and while passing defense is the weakness, it makes sense why it is. Teams need to throw against the Ducks and that is why they are 108th in the nation in passing defense. That does improve to 83rd in passing efficiency defense which is a much better indication of the true abilities.
The Oregon defense will continue to work on different looks and ways of getting to Sun Devils quarterback Rudy Carpenter, who is expected back after missing the last game, and keeping the pressure on. Oregon leads the Pac 10 in sacks at 3.6 per contest. Defensive end Nick Reed has eight while fellow end Will Tukuafu has six and they rank 1st and 2nd respectively in the conference. Arizona St. is tied for 99th in the country in sacks allowed at 2.5 per game.
The Ducks, who normally open their practice up for part of the week, have had a closed practice all week. This is likely to not give any indication of who will be starting at quarterback as Justin Roper has been cleared to play and is at 100 percent. He is the passing threat while Jeremiah Masoli, who has filled in, is the better runner. The goal in this one is to keep that rushing attack moving along and that should not be a problem at all against the Sun Devils.
Arizona St. is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against teams that average 4.8 or more ypc on offense. It is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against teams that allow 3.3 or fewer ypc on defense. This shows how bad the Sun Devils are when they cannot control the line of scrimmage. Arizona St. is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games which tells a lot of how this venue is not what it used to be. The Sun Devils have some revenge to play for after losing by 12 in Oregon last season but it won’t happen here. 9* Oregon Ducks
TITLE: **9** #1 Pac 10 Play This Season (87.5%)**
REASON FOR PICK: **9** #1 Pac 10 Play This Season (87.5%)** Arizona St. is struggling both offensively and defensively. Ever since that overtime upset loss to UNLV, the Sun Devils have not been right and there is no evidence that they are going to suddenly turn it around. The offense has scored a total of 44 points over the last four games while the defense has allowed 102 points for an average scoring differential of 14.5 ppg. Arizona has been outgained in its last three games and even though the last two were on the road, a return home won’t matter.
The Ducks rebounded from that loss against USC by taking out UCLA in their last game prior to the bye week. The game against the Trojans was a complete disaster as Oregon was outgained by 359 yards and that marked the only game this season that the Ducks have been outgained. They have won both of their other road games against Purdue and Washington St. and while both of those teams are bad, the competition this Saturday is not that much better.
The quarterback situation has been a mess in Oregon this season with three signal callers playing the majority of the time due to injuries. It has not mattered however as the Ducks have been rolling with their running game and they once again have a big edge here. Based on my rushing efficiency rankings, Oregon is 3rd in the nation as it is averaging 275.1 ypg on 5.8 ypc while playing the nation’s 57th ranked schedule. Arizona St. is 37th in my rushing efficiency rankings, allowing 143.8 ypg and ranked 65th in national rankings.
On the other side, the Sun Devils rely heavily on the pass as they are ranked 117th in the country in rushing offense, averaging a mere 83.7 ypg on 2.8 ypc. Oregon is strong against the run on defense and while passing defense is the weakness, it makes sense why it is. Teams need to throw against the Ducks and that is why they are 108th in the nation in passing defense. That does improve to 83rd in passing efficiency defense which is a much better indication of the true abilities.
The Oregon defense will continue to work on different looks and ways of getting to Sun Devils quarterback Rudy Carpenter, who is expected back after missing the last game, and keeping the pressure on. Oregon leads the Pac 10 in sacks at 3.6 per contest. Defensive end Nick Reed has eight while fellow end Will Tukuafu has six and they rank 1st and 2nd respectively in the conference. Arizona St. is tied for 99th in the country in sacks allowed at 2.5 per game.
The Ducks, who normally open their practice up for part of the week, have had a closed practice all week. This is likely to not give any indication of who will be starting at quarterback as Justin Roper has been cleared to play and is at 100 percent. He is the passing threat while Jeremiah Masoli, who has filled in, is the better runner. The goal in this one is to keep that rushing attack moving along and that should not be a problem at all against the Sun Devils.
Arizona St. is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against teams that average 4.8 or more ypc on offense. It is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against teams that allow 3.3 or fewer ypc on defense. This shows how bad the Sun Devils are when they cannot control the line of scrimmage. Arizona St. is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games which tells a lot of how this venue is not what it used to be. The Sun Devils have some revenge to play for after losing by 12 in Oregon last season but it won’t happen here. 9* Oregon Ducks
