Dominic Fazzini Saturday's plays 20 Dime -- WYOMING (minus points vs. New Mexico)
10 Dime -- TCU (minus points vs. AIR FORCE)
WYOMING
Since first-year coach Dave Christensen inserted freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels into the starting lineup, the Cowboys' offense has taken off.
Carta-Samuels has completed 53 of 75 passes (71 percent) for 457 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games with just one interception, and Wyoming has scored 30 points in each of those games, beating UNLV 30-27 in Laramie and winning 30-28 at Florida Atlantic.
New Mexico, meanwhile, is having problems, losing all five of its games. The Lobos are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, 1-4 ATS in conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
First-year coach Mike Locksley is already taking a lot of heat for the team's performance, and he recently was reprimanded for fighting with an assistant coach. Under Locksley, New Mexico is scoring just under 15 points per game while allowing 38.
The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS this year, including 2-0 at home and 2-0 with Carta-Samuels as their starting QB.
The betting trends in this matchup don't favor Wyoming, as the Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Laramie.
But the Cowboys are surging under their new coach and freshman QB, while the Lobos could be looking at a winless season. Take Wyoming to cover the points today.
TCU
The Horned Frogs have a BCS bowl in their sites, and they're not about to take any team for granted right now, not even a weak Air Force squad.
TCU's defense gets most of the credit for the team's strong play over the past two years, and it should as the unit has allowed 16 points or less in 11 straight Division I-A games and in 15 of 16 since the start of last season.
But the Frogs are also sound on offense, averaging 34.8 points per game and 220 yards rushing per game. Junior QB Andy Dalton has performed soundly, completing 68 percent of his passes for 814 yards and six touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Paid & Confirmed By Me...
10 Dime -- TCU (minus points vs. AIR FORCE)
WYOMING
Since first-year coach Dave Christensen inserted freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels into the starting lineup, the Cowboys' offense has taken off.
Carta-Samuels has completed 53 of 75 passes (71 percent) for 457 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games with just one interception, and Wyoming has scored 30 points in each of those games, beating UNLV 30-27 in Laramie and winning 30-28 at Florida Atlantic.
New Mexico, meanwhile, is having problems, losing all five of its games. The Lobos are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, 1-4 ATS in conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
First-year coach Mike Locksley is already taking a lot of heat for the team's performance, and he recently was reprimanded for fighting with an assistant coach. Under Locksley, New Mexico is scoring just under 15 points per game while allowing 38.
The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS this year, including 2-0 at home and 2-0 with Carta-Samuels as their starting QB.
The betting trends in this matchup don't favor Wyoming, as the Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in the teams' last seven meetings, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Laramie.
But the Cowboys are surging under their new coach and freshman QB, while the Lobos could be looking at a winless season. Take Wyoming to cover the points today.
TCU
The Horned Frogs have a BCS bowl in their sites, and they're not about to take any team for granted right now, not even a weak Air Force squad.
TCU's defense gets most of the credit for the team's strong play over the past two years, and it should as the unit has allowed 16 points or less in 11 straight Division I-A games and in 15 of 16 since the start of last season.
But the Frogs are also sound on offense, averaging 34.8 points per game and 220 yards rushing per game. Junior QB Andy Dalton has performed soundly, completing 68 percent of his passes for 814 yards and six touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Paid & Confirmed By Me...
Craig Davis
Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
40 Dime --- FRESNO STATE (Buy the 1/2 point)
20 Dime --- HOUSTON (If your line is +2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point up to +3)
10 Dime --- OKLAHOMA (First half)
FRESNO STATE (Buy the 1/2 point) --- Top play of the day on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the number out on the island. Might I suggest you buy this game as quickly as you can, because I have a feeling it's going to go up as the day progresses. It probably shouldn't matter, but I'd hate to get beat by a hook. I will be completely shocked if the Bulldogs don't win this game by 20 or more points, but this is gambling and we need to cover all our bases. You'll notice that any time I back a favorite of 10 or more points, the team they are playing is either really bad overall or they struggle mightily in one aspect of the game (or both). I think in this case, both scenarios apply.
The Bulldogs enter this game having lost to the Warriors three straight times, but last year's game did not feature talented Fresno RB Ryan Matthews and let me tell you... this kid can flat out run. Hawaii has absolutely no one who can stop him one-on-one, and if he gets into space it's probably going to result in 6 points. Matthews rushed an amazing 38 times for 145 yards and a TD last week in a 28-20 loss to undefeated Cincinnati. The week before that Matthews rushed just 19 times vs. the "vaunted" Boise State run defense, and finished with 245 yards and 3 scores. Or how about versus Big 10 power Wisconsin where he rushed 19 times for 107 yards? 4 games for Matthews... and 4 times he went over 100 yards rushing.
And did you notice the teams I mentioned he did his damage against? Cincy, Boise State and Wisconsin. What do they all have in common... they're all unbeaten on the season --- 15 and 0. So it's not like Matthews was lighting up high school teams... he was doing this against quality caliber... three teams that will easily be playing in bowl games. And have you noticed the maturity of young QB Ryan Colburn? There were a lot of questions surrounding this kid at the beginning of the season, but after he torched the Wisconsin secondary for over 300 yards and then managed his offense quietly in the next two games (not making too many costly mistakes), HC Pat Hill knew this team could start to make a move. Well, that move starts tonight against an inferior Hawaii team that's missing its offensive leader... QB Greg Alexander.
You see, Alexander tore knee ligaments in last week's loss to Louisiana Tech and will miss the rest of the season. This is HUGE for the Warriors as the only other QBs they have on the roster are junior college transfer Bryant Moniz or sophomore Shane Austin... neither of which has any real NCAA Division I experience. The biggest problem for Hawaii, however, is the fact they simply can't run the ball and, wouldn't you know it, they can't stop the run either. Much like last night's easy win on Nevada, the scenario was plain as day.... La. Tech simply cannot stop the run while Nevada runs the ball as well as anyone in the WAC. Exact same scenario here tonight. Hawaii can't stop the run whatsoever and now they're being asked to stop Ryan Matthews?? Please.
Fresno should be giving 17 points in this game, period... so the fact we're only being asked to lay 10 is a crime... but who am I to complain? Hawaii's only chance to keep this game respectable is to throw the ball 50 or more times... and that's what it's going to take because they'll be trailing the entire game. Every single factor I've looked at favors the Bulldogs, and I have absolutely no fear about this game being played in Hawaii. The weather is expected to be perfect which will only help Colburn and the Fresno passing game... which is far and away better than Hawaii's without Alexander. Top play of the day on Fresno State minus the number.
HOUSTON (if your line is +2.5, buy the half point up to +3) --- Perfect situation for line value here, and I believe we're getting it. After rolling through Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the Houston Cougars fell flat on their face at UTEP last week which put them in a great situation to be ready for another solid conference opponent today. Let's face it, Houston overlooked a very bad UTEP team and got spanked. Trust me, they won't let that happen again... not today. They know they have to come to play, but I doubt the rest of the country believes in them anymore. It's funny... we root for these underdogs until they lose... then we forget about them. It looks like Vegas forgot about them too because this line is just dead wrong.
HC Kevin Sumlin is a no nonsense guy trying to bring respectability back to a once proud program and it looked as if they were headed in that direction until last week's embarrassing setback. But this team isn't going to let that loss get them down... they can still win their conference, they can still go to a VERY GOOD bowl game and they can use all of this year as a recruiting tool for next year and years to come. This week of practice has been the hardest these players have experienced all week because Sumlin knows just how physical Miss. State is. He doesn't want his players to get "out-toughed" but an SEC team so he had his boys hit and hit and hit some more in practice this week.
Miss. State is getting some love in Vegas because of their recent game with LSU and Georgia Tech. When you are known for being a laughable program, and you all-of-a-sudden play teams in the SEC tough when no one expects it... people start to notice. Unfortunately for the average bettor, they'll be all over SEC because they're still under the impression that the SEC is light years above all other conferences... and I don't believe that for a minute. I'm not sold on the SEC... not this year. Don't get me wrong, I still think they're good and will likely have someone playing for the National Championship, but I just don't believe the middle-tier teams are really that great. Shoot, Oklahoma State beat Georgia in Week 1 but turned around and lost to this same Houston team a week later. You think Missississippi State would beat Georgia? Not a chance.
This game should be really fun to watch, and I'm tempted to release the OVER as well, but that number is just too high for me. Houston has beaten the Bulldogs the last two times they've played them and really weren't challenged. If you don't know who Case Keenum is, you will after this game. The Cougars might score just about every time they have the ball and it's going to take a miracle for the 'Dogs to keep up because I have no faith in QB Tyson Lee. Tempted to release this as a moneyline play, but I'll play it safe and tell you to just make sure you have Houston at +3 or more.
OKLAHOMA (first half) ---- Absolutely love to back the Sooners when they play at home, and today, coming back from a horrendous road trip to Miami (my big play last week, by the way), the Sooners will completely pummel the injury-riddled Baylor Bears. To be honest, I would have played the Sooners had Landry Jones been the starting QB... but just knowing we get Bradford back today makes this play even more exciting. The reason I'm backing Oklahoma in the first half only is because the number, which currently sits at -28, will likely go up to -29 or 29 1/2 by kickoff and that's simply too rich for my blood (though they'll probably cover it). I like the first half line of -15 1/2 (at the time of this writing) because historically the Sooners have jumped out to HUGE first half leads and then kinda put it on cruise control in the second half. Case in point... the Sooners have played two games at home so far this season and their last home contest was the more impressive of the two... a 45-0 shutout of then unbeaten Tulsa. The halftime score? 31-0. And in case you're wondering, yes, I would put Tulsa on the same field with Baylor and would like my chances.
The Bears are in huge trouble with previous third string QB Nick Florence expected to start under center today. The ONLY chance Baylor would have had to keep this game close today was if Robert Griffin was the starting QB. Griffin is down with injury and so is the backup Blake Szymanski... that's right, the Bears are down to a third-stringer and that's going to spell horrible trouble for this Baylor offense. OU's defense played good, not great, against Miami's athletes last week and definitely put themselves in a position to win... so how much more will they be able to do against a Baylor offense that struggled with Kent State until late in the game last week?
Here are some of the recent Oklahoma halftime scores with Baylor over the past few years... 35-14, 28-14, 24-13, and 34-3. So you see, Oklahoma has absolutely owned Baylor in its history and they usually get the job done in the second quarter... taking a large lead into the locker room. It's even better that Oklahoma is coming off a loss because you know they'll do everything they can to give the home crowd a show. I'm not sure why, but for some reason the Sooners play a completely different brand of football in Norman than they do on the road... and Baylor will experience this the hard way. Play the Sooners minus the number in the first half to slaughter Baylor and take all the wind out of their proverbial sails. OU 28 Baylor 6 at halftime.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS
Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
40 Dime --- FRESNO STATE (Buy the 1/2 point)
20 Dime --- HOUSTON (If your line is +2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point up to +3)
10 Dime --- OKLAHOMA (First half)
FRESNO STATE (Buy the 1/2 point) --- Top play of the day on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the number out on the island. Might I suggest you buy this game as quickly as you can, because I have a feeling it's going to go up as the day progresses. It probably shouldn't matter, but I'd hate to get beat by a hook. I will be completely shocked if the Bulldogs don't win this game by 20 or more points, but this is gambling and we need to cover all our bases. You'll notice that any time I back a favorite of 10 or more points, the team they are playing is either really bad overall or they struggle mightily in one aspect of the game (or both). I think in this case, both scenarios apply.
The Bulldogs enter this game having lost to the Warriors three straight times, but last year's game did not feature talented Fresno RB Ryan Matthews and let me tell you... this kid can flat out run. Hawaii has absolutely no one who can stop him one-on-one, and if he gets into space it's probably going to result in 6 points. Matthews rushed an amazing 38 times for 145 yards and a TD last week in a 28-20 loss to undefeated Cincinnati. The week before that Matthews rushed just 19 times vs. the "vaunted" Boise State run defense, and finished with 245 yards and 3 scores. Or how about versus Big 10 power Wisconsin where he rushed 19 times for 107 yards? 4 games for Matthews... and 4 times he went over 100 yards rushing.
And did you notice the teams I mentioned he did his damage against? Cincy, Boise State and Wisconsin. What do they all have in common... they're all unbeaten on the season --- 15 and 0. So it's not like Matthews was lighting up high school teams... he was doing this against quality caliber... three teams that will easily be playing in bowl games. And have you noticed the maturity of young QB Ryan Colburn? There were a lot of questions surrounding this kid at the beginning of the season, but after he torched the Wisconsin secondary for over 300 yards and then managed his offense quietly in the next two games (not making too many costly mistakes), HC Pat Hill knew this team could start to make a move. Well, that move starts tonight against an inferior Hawaii team that's missing its offensive leader... QB Greg Alexander.
You see, Alexander tore knee ligaments in last week's loss to Louisiana Tech and will miss the rest of the season. This is HUGE for the Warriors as the only other QBs they have on the roster are junior college transfer Bryant Moniz or sophomore Shane Austin... neither of which has any real NCAA Division I experience. The biggest problem for Hawaii, however, is the fact they simply can't run the ball and, wouldn't you know it, they can't stop the run either. Much like last night's easy win on Nevada, the scenario was plain as day.... La. Tech simply cannot stop the run while Nevada runs the ball as well as anyone in the WAC. Exact same scenario here tonight. Hawaii can't stop the run whatsoever and now they're being asked to stop Ryan Matthews?? Please.
Fresno should be giving 17 points in this game, period... so the fact we're only being asked to lay 10 is a crime... but who am I to complain? Hawaii's only chance to keep this game respectable is to throw the ball 50 or more times... and that's what it's going to take because they'll be trailing the entire game. Every single factor I've looked at favors the Bulldogs, and I have absolutely no fear about this game being played in Hawaii. The weather is expected to be perfect which will only help Colburn and the Fresno passing game... which is far and away better than Hawaii's without Alexander. Top play of the day on Fresno State minus the number.
HOUSTON (if your line is +2.5, buy the half point up to +3) --- Perfect situation for line value here, and I believe we're getting it. After rolling through Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the Houston Cougars fell flat on their face at UTEP last week which put them in a great situation to be ready for another solid conference opponent today. Let's face it, Houston overlooked a very bad UTEP team and got spanked. Trust me, they won't let that happen again... not today. They know they have to come to play, but I doubt the rest of the country believes in them anymore. It's funny... we root for these underdogs until they lose... then we forget about them. It looks like Vegas forgot about them too because this line is just dead wrong.
HC Kevin Sumlin is a no nonsense guy trying to bring respectability back to a once proud program and it looked as if they were headed in that direction until last week's embarrassing setback. But this team isn't going to let that loss get them down... they can still win their conference, they can still go to a VERY GOOD bowl game and they can use all of this year as a recruiting tool for next year and years to come. This week of practice has been the hardest these players have experienced all week because Sumlin knows just how physical Miss. State is. He doesn't want his players to get "out-toughed" but an SEC team so he had his boys hit and hit and hit some more in practice this week.
Miss. State is getting some love in Vegas because of their recent game with LSU and Georgia Tech. When you are known for being a laughable program, and you all-of-a-sudden play teams in the SEC tough when no one expects it... people start to notice. Unfortunately for the average bettor, they'll be all over SEC because they're still under the impression that the SEC is light years above all other conferences... and I don't believe that for a minute. I'm not sold on the SEC... not this year. Don't get me wrong, I still think they're good and will likely have someone playing for the National Championship, but I just don't believe the middle-tier teams are really that great. Shoot, Oklahoma State beat Georgia in Week 1 but turned around and lost to this same Houston team a week later. You think Missississippi State would beat Georgia? Not a chance.
This game should be really fun to watch, and I'm tempted to release the OVER as well, but that number is just too high for me. Houston has beaten the Bulldogs the last two times they've played them and really weren't challenged. If you don't know who Case Keenum is, you will after this game. The Cougars might score just about every time they have the ball and it's going to take a miracle for the 'Dogs to keep up because I have no faith in QB Tyson Lee. Tempted to release this as a moneyline play, but I'll play it safe and tell you to just make sure you have Houston at +3 or more.
OKLAHOMA (first half) ---- Absolutely love to back the Sooners when they play at home, and today, coming back from a horrendous road trip to Miami (my big play last week, by the way), the Sooners will completely pummel the injury-riddled Baylor Bears. To be honest, I would have played the Sooners had Landry Jones been the starting QB... but just knowing we get Bradford back today makes this play even more exciting. The reason I'm backing Oklahoma in the first half only is because the number, which currently sits at -28, will likely go up to -29 or 29 1/2 by kickoff and that's simply too rich for my blood (though they'll probably cover it). I like the first half line of -15 1/2 (at the time of this writing) because historically the Sooners have jumped out to HUGE first half leads and then kinda put it on cruise control in the second half. Case in point... the Sooners have played two games at home so far this season and their last home contest was the more impressive of the two... a 45-0 shutout of then unbeaten Tulsa. The halftime score? 31-0. And in case you're wondering, yes, I would put Tulsa on the same field with Baylor and would like my chances.
The Bears are in huge trouble with previous third string QB Nick Florence expected to start under center today. The ONLY chance Baylor would have had to keep this game close today was if Robert Griffin was the starting QB. Griffin is down with injury and so is the backup Blake Szymanski... that's right, the Bears are down to a third-stringer and that's going to spell horrible trouble for this Baylor offense. OU's defense played good, not great, against Miami's athletes last week and definitely put themselves in a position to win... so how much more will they be able to do against a Baylor offense that struggled with Kent State until late in the game last week?
Here are some of the recent Oklahoma halftime scores with Baylor over the past few years... 35-14, 28-14, 24-13, and 34-3. So you see, Oklahoma has absolutely owned Baylor in its history and they usually get the job done in the second quarter... taking a large lead into the locker room. It's even better that Oklahoma is coming off a loss because you know they'll do everything they can to give the home crowd a show. I'm not sure why, but for some reason the Sooners play a completely different brand of football in Norman than they do on the road... and Baylor will experience this the hard way. Play the Sooners minus the number in the first half to slaughter Baylor and take all the wind out of their proverbial sails. OU 28 Baylor 6 at halftime.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS
Deano
Here they are guys... Good Luck!
HRC LINE EDGES-October 10th
Thank You for your Purchase!
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
-=HIGH ROLLER CLUB COMP ACTION=-
========================
Type: -=Straight=-
========================
All listed games ran through AI giving
us the best edge available
*******************************
NOTEABLE LINE EDGES
*******************************
Game: Auburn @ Arkansas (+2.5)
Edge: AUBURN wins by 10
Game: Iowa St. @ Kansas (-19)
Edge: KANSAS wins by 24
Game: Alabama @ Mississippi (+4.5)
Edge: ALABAMA wins in double digits
Game: TCU @ AirForce (+10.5)
Edge: TCU wins game by 2
Game: Michigain @ Iowa (-8)
Edge: IOWA wins by 3
Game: BYU @ UNLV (+17)
Edge: BYU wins in a blowout
Game: Michigan St. @ Illinois (+4)
Edge: MICHIGAN ST. wins by a TD
Game: Vanderbilt @ Army (+10)
Edge: VANDERBILT wins by two touchdowns
Here they are guys... Good Luck!
HRC LINE EDGES-October 10th
Thank You for your Purchase!
Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)
-=HIGH ROLLER CLUB COMP ACTION=-
========================
Type: -=Straight=-
========================
All listed games ran through AI giving
us the best edge available
*******************************
NOTEABLE LINE EDGES
*******************************
Game: Auburn @ Arkansas (+2.5)
Edge: AUBURN wins by 10
Game: Iowa St. @ Kansas (-19)
Edge: KANSAS wins by 24
Game: Alabama @ Mississippi (+4.5)
Edge: ALABAMA wins in double digits
Game: TCU @ AirForce (+10.5)
Edge: TCU wins game by 2
Game: Michigain @ Iowa (-8)
Edge: IOWA wins by 3
Game: BYU @ UNLV (+17)
Edge: BYU wins in a blowout
Game: Michigan St. @ Illinois (+4)
Edge: MICHIGAN ST. wins by a TD
Game: Vanderbilt @ Army (+10)
Edge: VANDERBILT wins by two touchdowns
