Michigan vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - Oct 10, 2009 8:00 PM EDT
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Play Title Burns' Big 10 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (80% YTD) *Nat TV!
Play Selected Total: 47/-104
I'm playing on Michigan and Iowa to finish UNDER the total. After putting up 30 or more points in each of their first four game, the Wolverines found the going much tougher last week, as they managed only 20 points in an overtime loss vs. Michigan State. Actually 20 points wasn't that bad, considering that the Wolverines managed only 251 yards, (a season-low) including a mere 28 on the ground. This week, they'll face an even tougher defense. The Hawkeyes' defense ranks third in the league allowing just 13.4 points. They also rank second with 14 forced turnovers. The fact that Iowa has not allowed a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters, dating to last season, says a lot about the type of defense this team is currently playing. Note that they held Penn State to only 307 total yards, forcing four turnovers. With that type of defense, it's no surprise that the Hawkeyes have seen four of their five games stay below the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 20-9 the Hawkeyes' last 29 lined games. While the Michigan defense (allowing 23.4 ppg) hasn't been as stout as the Iowa defense, the Hawkeyes aren't exactly explosive on offense. As usual, Iowa likes to run the ball. They've had more than 30 rushing attempts in all five games, averaging more than 35. They're only averaging 3.9 yards per carry though. That adds up to a lot of second and third downs, where the clock is still moving. QB Stanzi is certainly capable, as he demonstrated in last week's big performance vs. Arkansas State. That said, he's now got seven interceptions, to go along with his eight touchdowns. Ferentz knows how important this game is (Hawkeyes have never been 5-0 with him as coach, let alone 6-0) and he knows that if he can limit Stanzi's mistakes, his team has a great chance. As a result, I expect another fairly conservative offensive gameplan. These teams haven't faced each other since 2006. However, if we look at the three meetings from 2004-2006 we find that all three of them produced 47 combined points or less. Those three games averaged only 38.67 points, most recently a 20-6 "defensive battle" in October of '06. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here, with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number, the largest one Iowa has seen all year. *10 Top Big 10 Total