Service Plays Saturday 10/10/09

[Bluemyboy]

Any Wunderdog or Seabass sightings ?

Wunderdog College Football Upset Alert
These are not official picks and won't be counted towards the week's units won/lost. Just sharing and you can do with them what you may...
This Week's Picks (12)
Louisiana Tech +340 over Nevada (Friday Night) - Strong Play
Syracuse +310 over W. Virginia
Boston College +400 over Virginia Tech...Get the remaining 9 Upset Alert picks as part of any premium package here.
Comp Pick:
Game: Michigan at Iowa (Saturday 10/10 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: Iowa -7.5 (-110)
Michigan is a much-improved team, but their miracle finish vs. Notre Dame at home has changed this team into something they are not, at least in the eyes of the public and oddsmakers. We saw a hint of it last week as they opened as a favorite and by kickoff were a four-point underdog. They went on to show the truth in a loss at not-so-highly regarded Michigan State. After four games at home to start the season, last week was their first road game and they must do it again on the road this week. The biggest hole for Michigan is on defense. Eliminating uncompetitive games vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, the Wolverines have allowed 31 points per game. They face an Iowa team that has the defensive prowess to shut down the Wolverines offense, and that simply puts added pressure on a defense that has trouble getting stops. We were on Iowa vs. Penn State as a 5-unit play two weeks ago when they won as a 10 point dog. I liked them so much in that game because of their defense.The same applies here. The Hawkeyes won that game by holding Penn State (who has better offense than Michigan) to just 10 points on the road. And they were able to generate 21 against a Penn State defense that is much better than Michigan's. So, if Iowa can win in Happy Valley, they should have no problem here at home vs. a weaker team. The Hawkeyes have delivered a 37-17 ATS mark in their last 54 at home. They are 10-2 ATS as a favorite from 3.5-10 points and 8-1 ATS after 5+ straight wins under Kirk Ferentz. Michigan is 2-6-1 ATS the past few years as a Big Ten underdog. And, Rich Rodriguez is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams that allow14 or fewer points per game! I like Iowa in this one.

 

[Pepi]

Deano

:toast:



HRC PREMIUM CFB PLAY- October 10th

Thank You For Your Purchase!

Capper: Deano (Handicappers Paradise)

Betting Session: Follow Units posted (*Varies*)

-=HIGH ROLLER CLUB PREMIUM ACTION=-

Last Posted Play: Winner

*************************************
-=7pt. Teaser=-

Today's Premium Pick: Kansas
Today's Odds: -12
Unit(s): 5

Today's Premium Pick: Auburn
Today's Odds: +5
Unit(s): 5
*************************************

Record: 7-0

 

[huskers84]

Northcoast Totals anyone? Those lines move fast. Thanks again.

 

[krunch]

Gloria Lozano

6-2 Last 8 plays

This was emailed to me:

Just want to tell you that one of the 2 monster play for saturday is Phoenix -110 in Hockey (5* Monster play)....

This man told me he would have 1-3 more games saturday but it will be the afternoon that i will get it. He say one more monster play in College futbal. (2 5*plays for sure ) the rst will be 4*

I will email everyone when i get the other plays saturday....

 

[MoRich300]

OC Dooley:

“1 UNIT” COLLEGE PRIMETIME INJURY INTANGIBLE (Southern Mississippi -1’ at Louisville in a 7:35 eastern kickoff broadcast on ESPNU-TV): We have excellent line value with tonight’s visitor as the line on this ESPNU televised primetime contest has dropped to account for the fact that Southern Miss just lost starting quarterback Austin Davis (foot) for the rest of the season. On the face of it that is a devastating injury since Davis a year ago (3,128 yards passing, 23 touchdown passes) directed an offense that broke 36 school records and tied 6 others via the “no huddle” spread attack installed by new head coach Larry Fedora. But the fact of the matter is that reserve and now new Golden Eagles starter Martevious Young does have some previous experience and also is blessed with a strong arm along with the ability to gain rushing yards on the ground. Even though Southern Miss just lost their lead quarterback they ARE getting back their #1 options this week both at running back and wide receiver. Senior rusher Damion Fletcher is the nation’s current active leader in carries (866), rush yards (4,658), yards per game (110.9) and all-purpose plays. In last week’s stunning loss against Alabama-Birmingham both Fletcher and star wideout DeAndre Brown missed the game due to injury. Since the Golden Eagles ended up finishing that contest with all 3 of their top players in the offensive backfield hurt, it comes as no shock that Alabama Birmingham came out tops on the scoreboard. But Southern Miss has now had a full week to prepare for a Louisville contingent that failed miserably in an ESPN weeknight telecast versus Pittsburgh which was their Big East Conference opener. It was not all that long ago when Louisville had a 12-1 record and an Orange Bowl berth in what turned out to be Bobby Petrino’s final season as head coach. Without his recruiting prowess the Cardinals program has quickly faded and last year the offense recorded its LOWEST average yards per game dating all the way back to the 2002 campaign. For years Louisville’s attack thrived with star quarterbacks Brian Brohm and Hunter Cantwell leading the way, but these days there are many question marks at that critical position. Louisville played their last game without lead quarterback Justin Burke (sternum) who may be cleared to return this evening. As of this typing the Cardinals are going to make a “game day” decision between Burke or reserve Adam Froman. Whoever plays at quarterback is most likely to struggle against a Southern Mississippi defense that returned 8 starters from a year ago including the entire secondary. As for Louisville who lost a pair of All-Conference linemen to graduation the defense in the past three games (35, 30, 31) has been shredded by the opposition. As mentioned earlier in this analysis Southern Mississippi last week (-10) lost by a 30-17 count at Alabama-Birmingham as they lost their starting quarterback for the rest of the season and were minus #1 injured options at running back and wide receiver. My database research indicates that dating all the way back to 1992, Southern Mississippi has COVERED the spread at a staggering 11-1 ATS clip when shaking off a “double digit” conference loss. That statistic comes as no shock considering that Southern Miss has ripped off 15 consecutive WINNING campaigns. Southern Mississippi tonight most likely will be playing for a fallen teammate as “walk on” punter Peter Wilkes who nearly won the starting job in camp reportedly was killed in a horrible accident this week involving a gun
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[brewerfan003]

WAYNE ROOT'S UPSET CLUB

Ole Miss (+4½) over Alabama
6*UCLA (+3½) over Oregon
Both games are at 3:30 PM

 

[MoRich300]

SYNDICATE PLAY - Ethan Law


NCAA-F Oct 10 '09
12:30p Kentucky vs South Carolina
Take: Kentucky +9½-110 in 7h
Note: To my full Season NCAA Subscribers, this play is not part of Ethan Laws premium package. Rather, each week Ethan will be releasing a few plays that were bet by the New York City betting syndicate to which he is one of the lead adviser's on. The Syndicate will likely be releasing more than one selection starting next week, but in the early going they play a very conservative approach.

Syndicate play: The second play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was KENTUCKY +10! South Carolina opened as a 11.5 point home favorite underdog and when the syndicate placed their wager the line quickly moved down to +10.5. Later in the week the larger players continued to move the line to where it stands now at 10. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $45,000 wager on KENTUCKY +10.

Ethan’s thoughts: Only one adviser liked this game and I can tell you it was not me. We discussed this game for hours and hours and although I believe it does have some considerable merit, it is not (in my opinion one of the stronger plays on the board. The reason I do not like it is because it could be over after the first quarter, and I always like believe my underdogs will win their games outright and I do not believe that is the case here. Despite my thoughts, the group is sold on the fact that Kentucky comes into this game at a very bargain price. Our runner even told us that Kentucky is the Top selection by most of the larger outfits for that reason, and justifiably so. Granted the true line in this contest should be in the neighborhood of 8.5 to 9 points, but the simple fact that Kentucky got absolutely blasted by No. 1 Florida, 41-7, and followed that up with a terrible 38-20 defeat to Alabama. With that said those are two of the TOP teams in the nation and South Carolina although very good, is not even close to the level of those squads. Because of the fact that Kentucky is 0-3 ATS their last three the lines makers are forced to adjust their numbers, and now I am beginning to become convinced that the adjustment was to substantial to warrant this line. South Carolina has a slew of injuries and for an early season game, this is an absolute MUST WIN for Kentucky if their hopes of making a bowl contest want to stay alive. The Syndicate thinks they can win in this spot.

SYNDICATE PLAY: KENTUCKY +9.5
=======================================================
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 10 '09
8:00p East Carolina vs SMU
Take: SMU +6½-105 in 14h
Note: To my full Season NCAA Subscribers, this play is not part of Ethan Laws premium package. Rather, each week Ethan will be releasing a few plays that were bet by the New York City betting syndicate to which he is one of the lead adviser's on. The Syndicate will likely be releasing more than one selection starting next week, but in the early going they play a very conservative approach.

Syndicate play: The Syndicate was very happy about last weeks success as they placed on their larger wagers of the season on UTEP +15 who absolutely destroyed Houston on their way to an outright win. This week they came back with two selections. The first play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was SMU +6.5! SMU opened as a 6.5 home underdog and when the syndicate placed their wager the line quickly moved down to +6. Later in the week the public action on East Carolina has brought the game back up. Nevertheless, after some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $40,000 wager on SMU +6.5.

Ethan’s thoughts: I am happy to report that all three advisors flagged Marshall early in the week including myself as I thought this was one of the top plays on the board. To begin we have technical dominance on our side as the Pirates are 0-4 ATS as road favorites of more than six points while SMU is 9-1 ATS inside the conference off a loss after allowing more than 36 points in previous game. East Carolina won at Marshall last week (but really got crushed in the stats) and that triggers a 6-12 ATS system since 2008 when that occurs. Using what I said above, all three advisers were quick to point out that East Carolina leads the East Division of C-USA despite being outscored by 15 points this season. Hmmmm. If you really analyze this team you see a trend developing, which is one of theories behind this selection. East Carolina has a very good defense but they simply cannot score ranking the last in the conference at just 21 points per game and less than 300 yards of total offense per game. Indeed, they have been outgained by an average of 69 yards per game. So the key match-up in this contest comes down to The Pirate defense which is ranked fourth in C-USA in total defense (366.0 yards per game) vs. the Mustang offense ranked fourth in total offense (380.0). If the Mustang offense gets moving, the Pirates will not be able to keep up. In contrast, SMU has a virtual cornucopia of offensive weapons surrounding quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell, including running back Shawnbrey McNeal and receivers Emmanuel Sanders, Aldrick Robinson, and Terrance Wilkerson. So if the Mustangs just reach their season average of 26 points a game that will without question make them win this game easily. We also noted that thie same SMU team really took TCU to the wire as last week they trailed just 12-7 at the half.

SYNDICATE PLAY: SMU +6.5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Insights

Auburn vs. Arkansas

You're reading it right; we're still not believers in Gene Chizik's new-look Auburn Tigers. Did they go into a hostile environment and beat up on a much-ballyhooed Tennessee defense? They did. But it's easy to forget that Tennessee has gotten most of its publicity this year because of its new coach's snarky remarks, not because of results. If the public wants to overvalue this primetime victory because of all the media attention surrounding Lane Kiffin's orange and wife - err, white - we don't mind at all.

That may very well be the case. The Tigers, who travel to Fayetteville this week to take on the Razorbacks, opened as 3-point favorites at Pinnacle. Sportswriters have been all over Auburn's story this week, noting that they finally feel respected after cracking the polls at #17. These headlines have probably also obscured the fact that they've trailed in every game but their last, as Auburn is getting 68% of bets on the spread and 68% of parlays. In spite of this strong public support, the line has dropped to -2.5 at Pinnacle as well as -2 at other books. Sports Insights Betting Systems are hammering this game, with four Smart Money moves on Arkansas (including BetOnline, +6.82 Units Won). Our best early performer, 5dimes Steam Moves, has also made an appearance. They're already up 20.4 Units on the young college football season, so we'll bet this one with confidence.

Arkansas +3


Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh

What passes for elite in Big East football may be a bit misleading, but it looks like there's going to be some serious competition at the top of the conference this season. Cincinnati and South Florida have cracked the Top 25, and whichever team wins this match-up will have a solid argument as well. Connecticut's only loss of the season came against North Carolina, a game determined by an offensive holding call in the end zone, resulting in a safety. Pittsburgh fell short at NC State but does have an impressive 27-14 victory over the Navy's triple-option attack under their belt.

Pittsburgh opened as a 10.5-point favorite at CRIS and has received 55% of spread bets. Additionally, 78% of parlay bets are falling on the Panthers, but the line has not grown as one might expect. The reverse line movement in this game is significant, dropping at least 3 points across the board. Pitt is now -7 at CRIS and can be found as low as -6.5. Sharp money surely is falling on the Huskies, and we have evidence of it in another 5dimes Steam Move (+20.4 Units Won).

Connecticut +7


Oregon vs. UCLA

Oregon has been an awfully confusing team this season. They opened with a primetime loss to Boise State, after which their star running back leveled an opposing player with a mean right cross. Since then, they've been more and more impressive in each game, particularly two weeks ago in a 42-3 dismantling of then #6 California. To make matters more baffling, the Ducks' quarterback Jeremiah Masoli missed Monday and Tuesday's practice, was limited Wednesday, and visited doctors again on Thursday to examine his injured right knee. He insists he'll play. On the flip side, UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince rejoined practice this week after breaking his jaw against Tennessee in Week 2 and having it wired shut. Reports have had him on a diet on blended beans, spinach, rice and salsa (we were dying to know as well), and he looks ready to go against the Pac-10 leading Ducks.

Did we mention befuddling? Yet these are the games for which Sports Insights Betting Systems were made. Market analysis has proven time and again to be more dependable and accessible than poring over statistics and match-ups. Games like this allow us to get out of our own way and invest, rather than gamble. Oregon opened as a 6.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and has taken a strong 70% of spread bets as well as 85% of parlays. You'd think the sportsbooks would want to encourage some action on UCLA by giving them more points, right? Instead, the line has dropped precipitously, down to -3.5 at Pinnacle and -3 at other books. We've seen 5 Smart Money plays on UCLA triggered by profitable sportsbooks, including CRIS (+12.6 Units Won). And to complete the trifecta, you know what's coming... a 5dimes Steam Move (+20.4 Units Won).

UCLA +3.5

 

[Gene]

SYNDICATE PLAY - Ethan Law


NCAA-F Oct 10 '09
12:30p Kentucky vs South Carolina
Take: Kentucky +9½-110 in 7h
Note: To my full Season NCAA Subscribers, this play is not part of Ethan Laws premium package. Rather, each week Ethan will be releasing a few plays that were bet by the New York City betting syndicate to which he is one of the lead adviser's on. The Syndicate will likely be releasing more than one selection starting next week, but in the early going they play a very conservative approach.

Syndicate play: The second play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was KENTUCKY +10! South Carolina opened as a 11.5 point home favorite underdog and when the syndicate placed their wager the line quickly moved down to +10.5. Later in the week the larger players continued to move the line to where it stands now at 10. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $45,000 wager on KENTUCKY +10.

Ethan’s thoughts: Only one adviser liked this game and I can tell you it was not me. We discussed this game for hours and hours and although I believe it does have some considerable merit, it is not (in my opinion one of the stronger plays on the board. The reason I do not like it is because it could be over after the first quarter, and I always like believe my underdogs will win their games outright and I do not believe that is the case here. Despite my thoughts, the group is sold on the fact that Kentucky comes into this game at a very bargain price. Our runner even told us that Kentucky is the Top selection by most of the larger outfits for that reason, and justifiably so. Granted the true line in this contest should be in the neighborhood of 8.5 to 9 points, but the simple fact that Kentucky got absolutely blasted by No. 1 Florida, 41-7, and followed that up with a terrible 38-20 defeat to Alabama. With that said those are two of the TOP teams in the nation and South Carolina although very good, is not even close to the level of those squads. Because of the fact that Kentucky is 0-3 ATS their last three the lines makers are forced to adjust their numbers, and now I am beginning to become convinced that the adjustment was to substantial to warrant this line. South Carolina has a slew of injuries and for an early season game, this is an absolute MUST WIN for Kentucky if their hopes of making a bowl contest want to stay alive. The Syndicate thinks they can win in this spot.

SYNDICATE PLAY: KENTUCKY +9.5
=======================================================
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 10 '09
8:00p East Carolina vs SMU
Take: SMU +6½-105 in 14h
Note: To my full Season NCAA Subscribers, this play is not part of Ethan Laws premium package. Rather, each week Ethan will be releasing a few plays that were bet by the New York City betting syndicate to which he is one of the lead adviser's on. The Syndicate will likely be releasing more than one selection starting next week, but in the early going they play a very conservative approach.

Syndicate play: The Syndicate was very happy about last weeks success as they placed on their larger wagers of the season on UTEP +15 who absolutely destroyed Houston on their way to an outright win. This week they came back with two selections. The first play the syndicate collectively bet this week in the NCAA was SMU +6.5! SMU opened as a 6.5 home underdog and when the syndicate placed their wager the line quickly moved down to +6. Later in the week the public action on East Carolina has brought the game back up. Nevertheless, after some considerable discussion the group decided to place a $40,000 wager on SMU +6.5.

Ethan’s thoughts: I am happy to report that all three advisors flagged Marshall early in the week including myself as I thought this was one of the top plays on the board. To begin we have technical dominance on our side as the Pirates are 0-4 ATS as road favorites of more than six points while SMU is 9-1 ATS inside the conference off a loss after allowing more than 36 points in previous game. East Carolina won at Marshall last week (but really got crushed in the stats) and that triggers a 6-12 ATS system since 2008 when that occurs. Using what I said above, all three advisers were quick to point out that East Carolina leads the East Division of C-USA despite being outscored by 15 points this season. Hmmmm. If you really analyze this team you see a trend developing, which is one of theories behind this selection. East Carolina has a very good defense but they simply cannot score ranking the last in the conference at just 21 points per game and less than 300 yards of total offense per game. Indeed, they have been outgained by an average of 69 yards per game. So the key match-up in this contest comes down to The Pirate defense which is ranked fourth in C-USA in total defense (366.0 yards per game) vs. the Mustang offense ranked fourth in total offense (380.0). If the Mustang offense gets moving, the Pirates will not be able to keep up. In contrast, SMU has a virtual cornucopia of offensive weapons surrounding quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell, including running back Shawnbrey McNeal and receivers Emmanuel Sanders, Aldrick Robinson, and Terrance Wilkerson. So if the Mustangs just reach their season average of 26 points a game that will without question make them win this game easily. We also noted that thie same SMU team really took TCU to the wire as last week they trailed just 12-7 at the half.

SYNDICATE PLAY: SMU +6.5
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are these the manhatten syndicate plays?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Speculate Sports

Wisconsin at Ohio State 3:30pm EST
Selection: WISCONSIN +16.5
Profile: Wisconsin has started the season 5-0, but several experts do not have much respect for the Badgers based on their weak opening schedule. However, they have two quality wins over Big 10 opponents Minnesota and Michigan State. The Spartans are a decent team this season, with a win over Michigan State and a close defeat at Notre Dame. I feel there are two main reasons why Wisconsin can stay within the number. First, their starting quarterback, Scott Tolzien, is a senior that has been in the program for several years now. He is not a typical first year starter and it has shown with the experience he has displayed. Tolzien makes several references to managing the offense, playing within himself, and avoiding mistakes. These are keys that are critical to quarterbacks playing well on the road. Also, Wisconsin has a dominant running game, averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground with their bruising tailback John Clay. While Ohio State does have a dominant rush defense, I expect Wisconsin to put enough points on the board to keep this game close. In addition, Ohio State does not have an explosive offense, which makes it much harder to cover this of a spread against quality opponents. Look for this game to be closer than expected.
3 UNIT SELECTION

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

wunderdog

purdue 5*
b.coll. 3*
miss.3*
florida 3*
iowa 3*
unlv 3*

 

[BobbyDig512]

Just tried to get Lawrence, but it wont take debit cards??? WTF, any way around this

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FairwayJay

20* BIG DRIVE BIG DOG - WISCONSIN
15* ARIZONA
10* UCLA - UNDER COLORADO ST - KANSAS ST - TCU - SMU - UNDER FLORIDA ST - UTEP

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Season: 17-13 (.567)

BOSTON 4, N.Y. Islanders 2
Pittsburgh 4, TORONTO 3
Atlanta vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHILADELPHIA 4, Anaheim 3
New Jersey vs. FLORIDA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DETROIT 4, Washington 3
Carolina vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. LOUIS 4, Los Angeles 3
NASHVILLE 3, Buffalo 2
CHICAGO 3, Colorado 2
PHOENIX 3, Columbus 2
EDMONTON 4, Montreal 3
Minnesota vs. SAN JOSE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

[brewerfan003]

northcoast:
POWERSWEEP UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

MISSISSIPPI

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

APACHE

27 syracuse (acc game of year)
17 e. michigan
22 kansas
22 army
14 wyoming
14 arkansas


22 indiana
12 pittsburgh
22 ucla
17 oklahoma

9 wake forest
24 texas tech over
22 toledo


12 tcu
17 smu over
14 florida
17 idaho
22 florida international
27 fresno st (wac game of the year)

 

[mhink2518]

I was going to get Marc Lawrence but someone said they were getting it. Is anyone getting it or should I?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

gus marone

line mistake goy
memphis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northcoast sportsline
button#3 tcu
button #9 illinois

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettingedge

UTEP