ANDRE GOMES
MLB – 909 Washington Nationals @ 910 Colorado Rockies
(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs. F. Morales)
In this contest, I’m focused to discuss a Team Total play w/ OVER WAS…
COL’s starting pitcher Franklin Morales’ numbers are just terrible. Not only his 5.47 ERA number for the season is atrocious, but also his advanced numbers aren’t pretty at all: 4.63 SIERA, 5.61 FIP & 4.53 xFIP! He also combines a poor K/BB ratio of 1.70 & 17.1% HR/FB rate = FADE MATERIAL!
However, he is coming from b2b decent starts in which he allowed just 1 ER’s in each game vs. LAD & SD. Still, his P/IP’s numbers in those 2 starts were high (17.3 & 17.8) and prevented him to reach the 6th IP in both games. I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced two subpar offensive teams in #28 ranked LAD & dead last #30 SD offenses vs. LHP’s (OPS ranks).
The Nationals are way better as they are ranked #8 vs. LHP in the season. They are confident w/ 4-1 SU record in L5 games and they have hit + .300 BA in their L4 games. I expect them to do some serious damage vs. Morales tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over TT Washington 5.5 Runs (w/ D. Fister) @ -130
MLB – 913 Boston Red Sox @ 914 Toronto Blue Jays
(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison)
These two teams have been “UNDER” teams so far in the season but I think we have a good opportunity to cash w/ the OVER in here.
I expect TOR offense to do some damage vs. Lackey tonight. They are ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, and they are coming from nice b2b offensive games vs. TEX in which they had .395 & .343 BA’s.
John Lackey is in a slump lately… he escaped in his last start @HOU w/ just 2ER’s allowed, but his 3/5 K/BB numbers & 19.5 P/IP said it all about his problems in that game. Actually, in his L4 starts, he had 19.5, 22.5, 19.2 & 20.2 P/IP numbers and obviously, he didn’t go deep in those games.
On the other end, Hutchison is also struggling lately w/ 4, 4, 1, 3 & 6 ER’s allowed in his L5 starts. His numbers vs. LH batters this season have been really problematic for him: 337 wOBA + 4.44 FIP & 4.51 xFIP!
BOS will put 5 LH batters in the lineup for tonight:
1. Brock Holt (L) 3B
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
3. David Ortiz (L) DH
4. Mike Napoli (R) 1B
5. Daniel Nava (S) LF
6. Stephen Drew (L) SS
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 3B
8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF
9. Christian Vazquez (R) C
I expect both offenses to generate some runs with this contest flying OVER the total posted.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison) @ +100
MLB – 909 Washington Nationals @ 910 Colorado Rockies
(Starting Pitchers: D. Fister vs. F. Morales)
In this contest, I’m focused to discuss a Team Total play w/ OVER WAS…
COL’s starting pitcher Franklin Morales’ numbers are just terrible. Not only his 5.47 ERA number for the season is atrocious, but also his advanced numbers aren’t pretty at all: 4.63 SIERA, 5.61 FIP & 4.53 xFIP! He also combines a poor K/BB ratio of 1.70 & 17.1% HR/FB rate = FADE MATERIAL!
However, he is coming from b2b decent starts in which he allowed just 1 ER’s in each game vs. LAD & SD. Still, his P/IP’s numbers in those 2 starts were high (17.3 & 17.8) and prevented him to reach the 6th IP in both games. I just can’t ignore the fact that he has faced two subpar offensive teams in #28 ranked LAD & dead last #30 SD offenses vs. LHP’s (OPS ranks).
The Nationals are way better as they are ranked #8 vs. LHP in the season. They are confident w/ 4-1 SU record in L5 games and they have hit + .300 BA in their L4 games. I expect them to do some serious damage vs. Morales tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over TT Washington 5.5 Runs (w/ D. Fister) @ -130
MLB – 913 Boston Red Sox @ 914 Toronto Blue Jays
(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison)
These two teams have been “UNDER” teams so far in the season but I think we have a good opportunity to cash w/ the OVER in here.
I expect TOR offense to do some damage vs. Lackey tonight. They are ranked #2 vs. RHP’s this season, and they are coming from nice b2b offensive games vs. TEX in which they had .395 & .343 BA’s.
John Lackey is in a slump lately… he escaped in his last start @HOU w/ just 2ER’s allowed, but his 3/5 K/BB numbers & 19.5 P/IP said it all about his problems in that game. Actually, in his L4 starts, he had 19.5, 22.5, 19.2 & 20.2 P/IP numbers and obviously, he didn’t go deep in those games.
On the other end, Hutchison is also struggling lately w/ 4, 4, 1, 3 & 6 ER’s allowed in his L5 starts. His numbers vs. LH batters this season have been really problematic for him: 337 wOBA + 4.44 FIP & 4.51 xFIP!
BOS will put 5 LH batters in the lineup for tonight:
1. Brock Holt (L) 3B
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
3. David Ortiz (L) DH
4. Mike Napoli (R) 1B
5. Daniel Nava (S) LF
6. Stephen Drew (L) SS
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 3B
8. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) CF
9. Christian Vazquez (R) C
I expect both offenses to generate some runs with this contest flying OVER the total posted.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 8.5 (w/ J. Lackey vs. D. Hutchison) @ +100
LineCatchers
Atlanta Braves - 1.5 (RL) + 110
The Braves host the Marlins tonight in the first game of a 4 game set in Atlanta. Julio Teheran will toe the rubber for the hosts and has been nothing short of exceptional at home in 2014. In 9 Home starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Teheran has allowed just 3 ER in his last 5 starts at Turner Field and his command has been incredible. Opposing teams are hitting just .177 against Teheran in those 9 home outings.
The Marlins give the ball to Tom Koehler, who has been very inconsistent this season. He has struggled on the road, going 2-4 in 10 starts away from Miami with a 5.37 ERA and a lofty 1.51 WHIP. In 4 career starts against the Braves, Koehler has a 0-2 record whilst pitching to a 4.24 ERA. On the other hand, Teheran is 4-0 in 6 career starts against the Marlins pitching to a 2.50 ERA.
Because the Braves are a big chalk (- 182), I do see value on the RL tonight with Teheran on the mound and a Marlins team which has struggled to score runs on the road this year.
Atlanta Braves - 1.5 (RL) + 110
The Braves host the Marlins tonight in the first game of a 4 game set in Atlanta. Julio Teheran will toe the rubber for the hosts and has been nothing short of exceptional at home in 2014. In 9 Home starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Teheran has allowed just 3 ER in his last 5 starts at Turner Field and his command has been incredible. Opposing teams are hitting just .177 against Teheran in those 9 home outings.
The Marlins give the ball to Tom Koehler, who has been very inconsistent this season. He has struggled on the road, going 2-4 in 10 starts away from Miami with a 5.37 ERA and a lofty 1.51 WHIP. In 4 career starts against the Braves, Koehler has a 0-2 record whilst pitching to a 4.24 ERA. On the other hand, Teheran is 4-0 in 6 career starts against the Marlins pitching to a 2.50 ERA.
Because the Braves are a big chalk (- 182), I do see value on the RL tonight with Teheran on the mound and a Marlins team which has struggled to score runs on the road this year.
River City Sharps
The Mets travel to Seattle tonight to take on the Mariners in a three-game series where they will give the ball to Jon Niese. The M's will counter with Roenis Elias and we are going to play against him here in this spot. Niese has been on the DL for the Mets with a shoulder injury, but before he went to the DL, he had pitched very well for the Mets and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this season. Elias is in the midst of a three-game losing streak where he has been absolutely shelled, giving up 17 runs in 14 innings of work. Another angle here tonight is going to be the fatigue on the Mariners side, where they played a total of 37 innings this past weekend while dropping two of three games to the Angels. The Mariners are 3-7 in Elias' last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record and the Mets are 13-5 in their last 18 interleague road games. We expect the Mets to hit around Elias hard tonight while getting a solid outing from Niese and also think the Mariners won't expose their fatigued bullpen to lots of innings. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - NEW YORK METS (+110)
The Mets travel to Seattle tonight to take on the Mariners in a three-game series where they will give the ball to Jon Niese. The M's will counter with Roenis Elias and we are going to play against him here in this spot. Niese has been on the DL for the Mets with a shoulder injury, but before he went to the DL, he had pitched very well for the Mets and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this season. Elias is in the midst of a three-game losing streak where he has been absolutely shelled, giving up 17 runs in 14 innings of work. Another angle here tonight is going to be the fatigue on the Mariners side, where they played a total of 37 innings this past weekend while dropping two of three games to the Angels. The Mariners are 3-7 in Elias' last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record and the Mets are 13-5 in their last 18 interleague road games. We expect the Mets to hit around Elias hard tonight while getting a solid outing from Niese and also think the Mariners won't expose their fatigued bullpen to lots of innings. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - NEW YORK METS (+110)
