SPORTS WAGERS
Texas +156 over N.Y. YANKEES
This isn’t an easy game to pull the trigger on because the Rangers are playing like dog doo-doo and the Yankees are warm but if we’re playing value like we always do, it’s a game we have to pull the trigger on. Shane Green cannot be favored in this range, not yet anyway. Greene was not called up to the Yankees because he was dominating at AAA-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, as he was just 5-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 66 innings. A string of injuries in the rotation opened up a spot for Greene and he has made the most of his chance, as both of his starts have resulted in pure quality one’s. He struck out nine in his most recent start, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings against Baltimore no less. Still, how can one trust two major league starts when this guy was having trouble getting batters out in the minors. He pitched 496 career minor league innings and posted a career minor-league ERA of 4.35, with a WHIP of 1.46 and BAA of .289! That was in the MINORS. Dude didn’t discover some secret sauce and while he may do well again, he’s a must fade at this price.
Miles Mikolas is an interesting case; he's mostly been a reliever in the minors, and has posted excellent minor-league numbers in his high-minors seasons (minor-league ERAs of 2.83 in 2012, 2.96 in 2013). He's made six starts and 10 relief appearances at Triple-A this year, with a fine 38/3 K/BB ratio in 45 IP. Texas has stated that he'll be in the rotation for at least a while because they like what they see despite the ERA 10.12 after three starts. Mikolas has struck out 12 batters in 14 innings while issuing just three walks. He has a groundball bias profile to go along with an xERA of 4.13. He’s been throttled by a very unlucky 44% strand rate. We’re not trying to sell you on Mikolas. He may very well get lit up again here but he has far more upside than Green in terms of talent and as mentioned above, Shane Green was an emergency call up for one game. He was not a projected prospect, nor was he on their call-up radar when they needed a real pitcher for an extended period of time. Green will get hammered over and over again and subsequently sent back down. That may not happen today but keep him on your fade radar. Overlay.
SEATTLE -118 over N.Y. Mets
What we have here is two pitchers, Jonathan Niese and Roenis Elias, both with misleading surface stats and the former may be in big trouble. Niese comes in with a 2.96 ERA but his xERA since May is 4.09 and even that may be a bit flattering. Niese has an overall swinging strike rate of 6% and just 73 K’s in 109 innings. Last year he was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator and missed almost two months. This year, he’s having shoulder issues again. He left his 4th of July start after being hit in the back with a line drive. The Mets thought they had dodged the proverbial bullet when that injury was diagnosed as a bruise, but the same shoulder issues that slowed him this past spring are sidelining him again. Niese has a 1.62 WHIP and 5.88 ERA over his last two starts and he’ll now face a Mariners team that is 21-12 against southpaws this season.
Roenis Elias quietly continues to post elite skills that are flying under the radar. He posted outstanding under the hood stats in both May and June. An adjustment earlier in games could help him take a noticeable step forward, as Elias is in the top 15 in the league in skills (swinging strike rate, xERA) the second and third time through the order. In other words, he gets stronger as the game goes on. The Mets' bats are cold with just one run scored over their last two games and this park is very unkind to struggling batters. On paper, this pooch may look appealing but we see an undervalued favorite.
Texas +156 over N.Y. YANKEES
This isn’t an easy game to pull the trigger on because the Rangers are playing like dog doo-doo and the Yankees are warm but if we’re playing value like we always do, it’s a game we have to pull the trigger on. Shane Green cannot be favored in this range, not yet anyway. Greene was not called up to the Yankees because he was dominating at AAA-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, as he was just 5-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 66 innings. A string of injuries in the rotation opened up a spot for Greene and he has made the most of his chance, as both of his starts have resulted in pure quality one’s. He struck out nine in his most recent start, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings against Baltimore no less. Still, how can one trust two major league starts when this guy was having trouble getting batters out in the minors. He pitched 496 career minor league innings and posted a career minor-league ERA of 4.35, with a WHIP of 1.46 and BAA of .289! That was in the MINORS. Dude didn’t discover some secret sauce and while he may do well again, he’s a must fade at this price.
Miles Mikolas is an interesting case; he's mostly been a reliever in the minors, and has posted excellent minor-league numbers in his high-minors seasons (minor-league ERAs of 2.83 in 2012, 2.96 in 2013). He's made six starts and 10 relief appearances at Triple-A this year, with a fine 38/3 K/BB ratio in 45 IP. Texas has stated that he'll be in the rotation for at least a while because they like what they see despite the ERA 10.12 after three starts. Mikolas has struck out 12 batters in 14 innings while issuing just three walks. He has a groundball bias profile to go along with an xERA of 4.13. He’s been throttled by a very unlucky 44% strand rate. We’re not trying to sell you on Mikolas. He may very well get lit up again here but he has far more upside than Green in terms of talent and as mentioned above, Shane Green was an emergency call up for one game. He was not a projected prospect, nor was he on their call-up radar when they needed a real pitcher for an extended period of time. Green will get hammered over and over again and subsequently sent back down. That may not happen today but keep him on your fade radar. Overlay.
SEATTLE -118 over N.Y. Mets
What we have here is two pitchers, Jonathan Niese and Roenis Elias, both with misleading surface stats and the former may be in big trouble. Niese comes in with a 2.96 ERA but his xERA since May is 4.09 and even that may be a bit flattering. Niese has an overall swinging strike rate of 6% and just 73 K’s in 109 innings. Last year he was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator and missed almost two months. This year, he’s having shoulder issues again. He left his 4th of July start after being hit in the back with a line drive. The Mets thought they had dodged the proverbial bullet when that injury was diagnosed as a bruise, but the same shoulder issues that slowed him this past spring are sidelining him again. Niese has a 1.62 WHIP and 5.88 ERA over his last two starts and he’ll now face a Mariners team that is 21-12 against southpaws this season.
Roenis Elias quietly continues to post elite skills that are flying under the radar. He posted outstanding under the hood stats in both May and June. An adjustment earlier in games could help him take a noticeable step forward, as Elias is in the top 15 in the league in skills (swinging strike rate, xERA) the second and third time through the order. In other words, he gets stronger as the game goes on. The Mets' bats are cold with just one run scored over their last two games and this park is very unkind to struggling batters. On paper, this pooch may look appealing but we see an undervalued favorite.
