Daily Reports
July 21st, 2014
Alright, we're back after picking up the win with the Braves on Friday and avoiding the weekend mess on Saturday and Sunday. We're backing 3 teams today so let's get to it.
MLB PLAY OF THE DAY
Atlanta Braves -1 (-132)
Risking 2.14 units to win 1.62 units
7:10pm start
Teheran, Koehler must start
The Marlins visit the Braves after dropping 2 of 3 against the Giants. They hold a 17-28 away record and they’ve be to 3 runs or less in 8 of 9 games. Miami has lost 6 of 7 games and they’re in for a rough one in a huge pitching mismatch.
Tom Koehler is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 2. This is a team ranking 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in ERA at 4.04 and Koehler’s position here is shaky at best. Miami is 3-7 in his last 10 as a road dog and 1-5 in his last 6 overall. Miami is also 2-5 in their last 7 in Atlanta which is generally a tough place to win for any team, especially when the Braves are rolling.
Atlanta has won 13 of 19, 4 of 5 and 2 of 3 games this past weekend. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games at home and 12-4 as a favorite. They are also 13-6 when Teheran starts and 8-2 when he’s at home. Teheran is 9-6 with a 2.71 ERA with 1-0, 1.88 ERA in 2 starts over Miami this season.
Take the home team and cash it.
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BONUS PLAYS
Washington Nationals -1 (-113)
Risking 2.26 to win 2 units
8:40pm start
Fister, Morales must start
The Nationals are coming off a walk-off win over the Brewers yesterday and they’re finally piling on the hits. This is great timing as they bring in 35 hits in 3 days to the most hitter-friendly park in the majors. Compare that to only 23 hits in 3 days for the Rockies who’ve dropped another 5 in a row while the Nats have won 4 of 5.
Washington is 7-2 in their last 9 matchups between them and they send out Doug Fister who is 8-2 with a 2.90ER. He’ll be up against the strong divisional pitcher in Franklin Morales who is 5-0 with a 3.09ERA in the NL West but too bad for him that the Nats are tied for first in the NL East. Morales is an awful 0-4, 7.42 against all other divisions and an overall 5-4, 5.26ERA.
Look for the Nats to stay hot as they grab the win over the Rockies this evening.
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Chicago White Sox ML (-173)
Risking 1.73 to win 1 unit
8:10pm start
Sale,Guthrie must start
The White Sox and the Royals are familiar foes in the AL Central but these two teams are headed in different directions right out of the break. Chicago is hitting well, putting up 23 hits in 2 days compared to only 9 for Kansas City. The Royals have lost 4 in a row, 6 of 7 and 9 of 12 games while the White Sox are 2-1 and have won 5 of 7 home games.
I wait impatiently every year for Jeremy Guthrie to fall off the rails and this is the time to strike against him once again. He’s 0-2 with an 11.05ERA in 3 starts. His 5-8, 4.56ERA isn’t scaring anyone either. He gave up 8 runs in innings and 14 runs on 19 hits in his last 2.
Chris Sale is the kind of pitcher you feel good putting money on. His steady 8-1, 2.08 ERA can be trusted after 11 days off if you don’t include the inning of work in the All-Star Game. He’s 3-1 at a 2.38ERA in his last 5 starts.
There’s enough urgency for Chicago to pick things up in their division as they’ve gone 1-10 in their last 11 in the AL Central. A game against a struggling team and pitcher should only help their cause. The White Sox have won 22 out of 29 as a favorite and 11 out of 12 Sale starts when favored under -200 and over -150.
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