WunderDog Premium MLB
Game: Tampa Bay at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 8 -105 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
Game: Toronto at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Yankees -175 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9 -125 (risk 2 to win 1.6)
Game: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick:Game Total UNDER 7.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick:Houston +115 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.3)
Pick:Game Total UNDER 6.5 +105 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Game: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 8.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Seattle at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +105 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Game: St. Louis at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Diego +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 6.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Oakland at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Tampa Bay at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 8 -105 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
Game: Toronto at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Yankees -175 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9 -125 (risk 2 to win 1.6)
Game: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick:Game Total UNDER 7.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick:Houston +115 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.3)
Pick:Game Total UNDER 6.5 +105 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Game: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 8.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Seattle at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +105 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Game: St. Louis at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Diego +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 6.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Game: Oakland at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
DR BOB SPORTS
Monday No Opinion
Dallas (+4) at OKLAHOMA CITY
I’m not really interested in either side of this game, as Oklahoma City is good after a loss (50-19 ATS if off a loss and facing a team off a win) while Dallas is 20-3 ATS as an underdog when Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler are both playing. The line is a bit high, as my ratings favor the Thunder by just 3 points, but I have no opinion on the side. I also have no opinion on the total since my math projects 196 total points, which is what the consensus total is.
Monday No Opinion
Dallas (+4) at OKLAHOMA CITY
I’m not really interested in either side of this game, as Oklahoma City is good after a loss (50-19 ATS if off a loss and facing a team off a win) while Dallas is 20-3 ATS as an underdog when Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler are both playing. The line is a bit high, as my ratings favor the Thunder by just 3 points, but I have no opinion on the side. I also have no opinion on the total since my math projects 196 total points, which is what the consensus total is.
OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has free pick for Monday and it is on the Cincinnati Reds (+156) to Philadelphia.
Reasoning: Certainly Cincinnati had a rough last series at Cleveland against the surging Indians and to be honest with you the Reds aren’t all that good right now. But with that said I am going to continue to fade the Phillies as Charlie Manual’s offense is the worst in baseball at this time. Yes I said it, the worst in baseball. Without Shane Victorino the Fightin’ Phils have absolutely no fight, none as in zero, nyet, nil. This team is hard pressed to get a hit no less score a run. Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco and the rest of Charlie Manual’s club is in a collective offensive tailspin and that’s being ultra kind.
The Phils were shut out yesterday and have now averaged about a run and a half in the last 9 games, literally. Sure Cole Hamels can be total money and well superior to Bronson Arroyo but the way the Phils have performed with the lumber I will continue to be more than fine with going against them at an exorbitant price like this.
Joey Votto and the Reds are mediocre at best right now and not very trustworthy. But the bottom line is to get such a handsome price back against a team struggling the way Philadelphia is makes me alright with this dog. If Hamels is great, which he could be, and the Phils once again prevail in the neighborhood of 1-0 or 2-1 then so be it. But I don’t see them all of a sudden doing a 180 and busting out with the sticks so in the end I’m just fine backing the defending NL Central champs and fading the offensively challenged NL East champs.
Reasoning: Certainly Cincinnati had a rough last series at Cleveland against the surging Indians and to be honest with you the Reds aren’t all that good right now. But with that said I am going to continue to fade the Phillies as Charlie Manual’s offense is the worst in baseball at this time. Yes I said it, the worst in baseball. Without Shane Victorino the Fightin’ Phils have absolutely no fight, none as in zero, nyet, nil. This team is hard pressed to get a hit no less score a run. Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Placido Polanco and the rest of Charlie Manual’s club is in a collective offensive tailspin and that’s being ultra kind.
The Phils were shut out yesterday and have now averaged about a run and a half in the last 9 games, literally. Sure Cole Hamels can be total money and well superior to Bronson Arroyo but the way the Phils have performed with the lumber I will continue to be more than fine with going against them at an exorbitant price like this.
Joey Votto and the Reds are mediocre at best right now and not very trustworthy. But the bottom line is to get such a handsome price back against a team struggling the way Philadelphia is makes me alright with this dog. If Hamels is great, which he could be, and the Phils once again prevail in the neighborhood of 1-0 or 2-1 then so be it. But I don’t see them all of a sudden doing a 180 and busting out with the sticks so in the end I’m just fine backing the defending NL Central champs and fading the offensively challenged NL East champs.
Philly and VR have been on opposite sides 7 of the last 11 games. If you find out one, you probably know the other. I know that doesn't necessarily help you.
Here's the largest discrepancies (tout tally) for games so far:
--St Louis 7-1
--Cleveland 6-1
--Milwaukee 6-2
--OKC Thunder 8-5
You can track them here: http://bit.ly/k9ybej
SPORTS WAGERS
OKLAHOMA CITY –3½ over Dallas
Great series with two great teams going at it right from the opening tip. The Mavericks are never out of it. They always hang around and they usually have a lead. Seldom have we seen this team play from behind during these playoffs and when they do, they always seem to be in striking distance. Dallas is deep, they’re aggressive and they can shoot lights out with Dirk and Jason Terry leading the way. That said, these Thunder have yet to lose two in a row these whole playoffs. KD and Russell Westbrook on the same team is sick. If they stick together they’re almost guaranteed to win an NBA championship at some point. Ok City has proven over and over and over that they are never to be counted out. What we really like is the fact that this line opened at -4½ and has been bet down to 3½. The Mavericks stock remains a little too high after that sweep of the Lakers and subsequent 2-1 lead in this series. The Thunder was simply ice cold from the field last game and that’s unlikely to occur again. The Thunder has lost twice in a row only once since Feb 27 and that’s an incredible accomplishment. They hate to lose and they’ve proven that in order to beat them twice in a row you better bring your best game and even then it’s no guarantee. Call this series 2-2 after this one heading back to Dallas. Play: Oklahoma City –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Seattle +102 over MINNESOTA
The Twins were swept in the desert over the weekend and have now lost 12 of their last 15 games. Overall, Minnesota has the worst record in the majors with a 15-30 record and one really has to wonder what all that losing is doing to their frame of mind. Losing is highly contagious and the Twins are in no position to be favored over the Mariners with Carl Pavano going. Pavano has some pretty ugly numbers. He’s allowed 63 hits in 54.1 innings for a BAA of .288. In those 63 innings he has a lousy 20 k’s. Pavano’s only saving grace is his pinpoint control and that keeps him in games sometimes but other than that all of his other skills have been on a steady decline. His 5.31 ERA is proof of a poor pitcher on a poor team. Jason Vargas is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last four starts and the M’s have won five in a row to improve to 22-24. Vargas extended his scoreless steak to 16 innings Wednesday, scattering four hits and striking out nine in a 3-0 win against the Angels. He, too, has pinpoint control, as his 14 walks in 58 frames will attest to. Vargas has struck out 41, he has a WHIP of 1.20 and an ERA of 3.39 and offers up a lot more value than his counterpart here. Play: Seattle +102 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +113 over Boston
Yeah, the Red Sox are great but how about a little respect for the Indians. They just swept the Reds, they own the best record in the majors and yet they’re a pooch at home with perhaps their best starter going. Justin Masterson has a long history of struggles vs. LH bats. Not this year: 51% GB%, 74 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under write-ups). He has been his normal elite self against RHers: 67% GB%, 106 BPV. His outstanding ERA, xERA and overall groundball rate of 57% confirms his overall growth and his newfound success against LHers will help him sustain it. Masterson has allowed one bomb in nine starts covering 60.2 innings. Clay Buchholz is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. However, he has an 81% strand rate on the year and his overall numbers on the road are a much worse than at home. Buchholz' skills have changed a bit during recent seasons and those changes are not entirely positive. His yawning ERA/xERA (3.42/4.60) gap and pedestrian BPV of 43 indicate that another sub-3.00 ERA is unlikely with his current skills. Pay for xERA, not ERA and that says bet against him here. Play: Cleveland +113 (Risking 2 units).
OKLAHOMA CITY –3½ over Dallas
Great series with two great teams going at it right from the opening tip. The Mavericks are never out of it. They always hang around and they usually have a lead. Seldom have we seen this team play from behind during these playoffs and when they do, they always seem to be in striking distance. Dallas is deep, they’re aggressive and they can shoot lights out with Dirk and Jason Terry leading the way. That said, these Thunder have yet to lose two in a row these whole playoffs. KD and Russell Westbrook on the same team is sick. If they stick together they’re almost guaranteed to win an NBA championship at some point. Ok City has proven over and over and over that they are never to be counted out. What we really like is the fact that this line opened at -4½ and has been bet down to 3½. The Mavericks stock remains a little too high after that sweep of the Lakers and subsequent 2-1 lead in this series. The Thunder was simply ice cold from the field last game and that’s unlikely to occur again. The Thunder has lost twice in a row only once since Feb 27 and that’s an incredible accomplishment. They hate to lose and they’ve proven that in order to beat them twice in a row you better bring your best game and even then it’s no guarantee. Call this series 2-2 after this one heading back to Dallas. Play: Oklahoma City –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Seattle +102 over MINNESOTA
The Twins were swept in the desert over the weekend and have now lost 12 of their last 15 games. Overall, Minnesota has the worst record in the majors with a 15-30 record and one really has to wonder what all that losing is doing to their frame of mind. Losing is highly contagious and the Twins are in no position to be favored over the Mariners with Carl Pavano going. Pavano has some pretty ugly numbers. He’s allowed 63 hits in 54.1 innings for a BAA of .288. In those 63 innings he has a lousy 20 k’s. Pavano’s only saving grace is his pinpoint control and that keeps him in games sometimes but other than that all of his other skills have been on a steady decline. His 5.31 ERA is proof of a poor pitcher on a poor team. Jason Vargas is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last four starts and the M’s have won five in a row to improve to 22-24. Vargas extended his scoreless steak to 16 innings Wednesday, scattering four hits and striking out nine in a 3-0 win against the Angels. He, too, has pinpoint control, as his 14 walks in 58 frames will attest to. Vargas has struck out 41, he has a WHIP of 1.20 and an ERA of 3.39 and offers up a lot more value than his counterpart here. Play: Seattle +102 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +113 over Boston
Yeah, the Red Sox are great but how about a little respect for the Indians. They just swept the Reds, they own the best record in the majors and yet they’re a pooch at home with perhaps their best starter going. Justin Masterson has a long history of struggles vs. LH bats. Not this year: 51% GB%, 74 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under write-ups). He has been his normal elite self against RHers: 67% GB%, 106 BPV. His outstanding ERA, xERA and overall groundball rate of 57% confirms his overall growth and his newfound success against LHers will help him sustain it. Masterson has allowed one bomb in nine starts covering 60.2 innings. Clay Buchholz is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. However, he has an 81% strand rate on the year and his overall numbers on the road are a much worse than at home. Buchholz' skills have changed a bit during recent seasons and those changes are not entirely positive. His yawning ERA/xERA (3.42/4.60) gap and pedestrian BPV of 43 indicate that another sub-3.00 ERA is unlikely with his current skills. Pay for xERA, not ERA and that says bet against him here. Play: Cleveland +113 (Risking 2 units).
BOOKIEASSASSIN-JOHN CHANG
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 10 dimes
My pick to represent the west in the finals is still Dallas, but I like this situation for the Thunder. They're fresh off an asswhipping last game in which they shot a pathetic 1 for 17 from three point land. Scoring champion Kevin Durant was held to a quiet 22 points without making a trey. The home team got outworked early and fell behind by 23 points. It's extremely doubtful that this is the type of performance we'll see from this explosive all star tonight. Durant is the kind of player that can go off for 40 points when he's angry, motivated, and playing in front of a home crowd. With Russell Westbrook finally finding his niche in the series, he should be able to draw enough attention to allow Durant to get some open looks. As for the rest of the team, they also elevate their game in these types of situations. This season, OKC has covered the number in all three games when they were trailing in a series, and are 6-1 in their last 7 in this respect. Dallas is the better team, and they have championship winner written all over them. But can we expect a team as good as the Thunder to play that poorly two games in a row at home in the playoffs? Doubtful. Lay the small chalk.
St. Louis Cardinals (-125, list both pitchers) over SAN DIEGO PADRES, 5 dimes
San Diego is downright pitiful when playing at home, and this is primarily due to a lack of run production. Their 8-18 home record is understandable when looking at their .203 batting average when playing at Petco Park. That's equated to an average of 2.3 runs per game at home. The Padres run support is killing their pitchers, especially Dustin Moseley. The team has mustered a 1.7 run average behind Moseley this season, and that really hurts considering his performance has started to go down the tubes in the last few games. While Cards' hurler Kyle Lohse hasn't had great success against the Padres, I'm willing to back him due to his outstanding recent performances. This guy is easily in line for an allstar appearance with his ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP that's under 1.00. And he's been throwing even better on the road this season. The Cards have won 6 of their last 7, and they play outstanding in night games (18-9.) Take the road team here.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 10 dimes
My pick to represent the west in the finals is still Dallas, but I like this situation for the Thunder. They're fresh off an asswhipping last game in which they shot a pathetic 1 for 17 from three point land. Scoring champion Kevin Durant was held to a quiet 22 points without making a trey. The home team got outworked early and fell behind by 23 points. It's extremely doubtful that this is the type of performance we'll see from this explosive all star tonight. Durant is the kind of player that can go off for 40 points when he's angry, motivated, and playing in front of a home crowd. With Russell Westbrook finally finding his niche in the series, he should be able to draw enough attention to allow Durant to get some open looks. As for the rest of the team, they also elevate their game in these types of situations. This season, OKC has covered the number in all three games when they were trailing in a series, and are 6-1 in their last 7 in this respect. Dallas is the better team, and they have championship winner written all over them. But can we expect a team as good as the Thunder to play that poorly two games in a row at home in the playoffs? Doubtful. Lay the small chalk.
St. Louis Cardinals (-125, list both pitchers) over SAN DIEGO PADRES, 5 dimes
San Diego is downright pitiful when playing at home, and this is primarily due to a lack of run production. Their 8-18 home record is understandable when looking at their .203 batting average when playing at Petco Park. That's equated to an average of 2.3 runs per game at home. The Padres run support is killing their pitchers, especially Dustin Moseley. The team has mustered a 1.7 run average behind Moseley this season, and that really hurts considering his performance has started to go down the tubes in the last few games. While Cards' hurler Kyle Lohse hasn't had great success against the Padres, I'm willing to back him due to his outstanding recent performances. This guy is easily in line for an allstar appearance with his ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP that's under 1.00. And he's been throwing even better on the road this season. The Cards have won 6 of their last 7, and they play outstanding in night games (18-9.) Take the road team here.
