Cajun-Sports Executive Report- Monday
Monday, January 05, 2009
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Drexel vs. James Madison (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3/-105 Drexel Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB "Shocker" 21-1-1 ATS!!
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JMU Convocation Center will be the site of tonight’s Colonial Athletic Conference clash between the host James Madison Dukes and the visiting Drexel Dragons.
Drexel has posted a record of 5-6 SU but they are a profitable 7-3 against the number. The Dragons have similar results on the highway as they are 3-4 SU but a money-making 4-2 ATS.
Drexel is averaging 62.9 points per game on the road this season but they are allowing 70.4 points per game.
Conference games are where the point differential swings into the Dragons favor as they average 59.0 points per game during conference affairs and only allow 56.0 points per game. Drexel’s non-conference schedule was significantly harder than James Madison’s and this certainly plays a part in their numbers not being as strong.
The Dragons have been successful of late they won their last three games in a row and all of those were road contests where the Dragons were installed as road underdogs. Drexel is 9-2 ATS when coming in off a SU win in their last game and currently have a line range of pk-3 points. If they are a road underdog that record improves to 7-1 ATS.
Drexel also qualifies in one of our CBB Systems that Plays ON away underdogs coming in off two road games where they covered the spread; these teams are 49-27-1 ATS. The fact that the Dragons have won and covered their last three games triggers another CBB System that is 13-3 ATS, if they are on the road that record is 8-1 ATS.
James Madison is 8-6 SU on the season with a 6-5 ATS record which includes a 2-1 SU and 1-1 ATS record at home.
The Dukes have struggled against conference opponents so far this season posting a record of 0-2 SU and only 1-1 against the spread. In fact James Madison has found conference games to be difficult over the last two seasons as they are only 6-15 ATS during that span. If they are coming in off a conference game their record is 4-15 ATS when facing conference opponents.
The Dukes are only averaging 56.0 points per game in conference games this season and they are being outscored allowing 59.0 points per game. JMU is having problems putting points on the board and we know that if they are coming in off an “Under” in their last game they are 8-21-1 ATS. If they lost SU and ATS in that game they are 6-16-1 ATS and if they are now at home that record falls to 0-6-1 ATS.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index indicates an edge of 2.9 points for the Dragons in tonight’s contest. Our Math Model Index projects a 4 point win for Drexel tonight. Combine these with strong situational and technical support and we have our 3* CBB Overnight Play of the Day.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Drexel Dragons 72 James Madison 69
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Ohio State vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 8/-103 Ohio State Play Title: Cajuns CFB Fiesta Bowl Dominator 17-0 ATS!!
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The Big Ten meets the Big 12 in one of the final matchups of the 2008-09 Bowl season, as the Buckeyes battle the Longhorns.
Ohio State comes into the contest sporting a 10-2 record and coach Jim Tressel's club recently won its fourth straight Big Ten title, this time sharing it with Penn State. The Buckeyes are making their fourth straight BCS Bowl appearance, and have reached a BCS bowl game for the sixth time under Tressel and the seventh time in the 11-year history of the system. Ohio State is 4-2 in BCS bowl matchups, although they have lost their last 2.
Texas is no stranger to the BCS, as this is their third trip to a BCS game, all under current head coach Mack Brown. The most recent was 3 years ago in the 2006 Rose Bowl against USC which they won, 41-38, giving the team its fourth national championship.
Texas, which brings a near-perfect 11-1 record into this contest, and have won four consecutive bowl bouts and six of their last seven overall.
The Buckeyes offense is predicated on RB Chris "Beanie" Wells finding running lanes and then letting his natural ability take over. Wells, who missed three games with a foot injury earlier in the year, still rushed for over 1,000 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.7 ypc along the way. As a team, the Buckeyes churn out 192 ypg on the ground. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor took over the starting job after just a couple of games and while his passing exploits will develop with more seasoning, he demonstrated the ability to inflict damage with his legs as well.
Foes found it difficult to put points on the board against Ohio State this season, doing so at just 13 ppg. In terms of yardage allowed, the Buckeyes surrender an average of 279 ypg, with 115 coming on the ground and 164 through the air. Their great pass defense will be tested here by Texas QB Colt McCoy and the Longhorns offense.
McCoy finished the 2008 regular season with 32 TD passes against only seven INTs, and he threw for 3,445 yards while completing an eye-popping 78% of his tosses. McCoy also paced the UT ground attack with 576 yards and 10 TDs.
The Texas defense performed exceptionally well against the run this season, yielding a mere 734 ypg and only seven TDs. However, the effort against the pass wasn't nearly as dominant, with foes averaging 266 ypg through the air and scoring 18 TDs. Opponents managed almost 19 ppg compared to 44 ppg for the Longhorns.
Jim Tressel wants his team at its best in November, and the Buckeyes were. They closed the season by averaging 39 points in three November games, while steadily improving the rushing attack every week. Beanie Wells will be a big challenge for the Longhorns who didn’t face anybody of his size and talent during the season. This could very well be Beanie’s last game in an Ohio State uniform. If so, we look for him to go out with a bang.
We have other reasons to look for the Buckeyes to be competitive here and at least cover the spread. For one, we like to play ON a team with the superior defense, especially if a team’s defensive strength neutralizes the opponent’s offensive strength. This could cause them to go with plays they are not well suited for. Ohio State’s defense ranks #8 in the country, while Texas is a mediocre #50. The Longhorns offensive strength is clearly passing the ball, ranking #11 in the nation; however, Ohio State ranks #6 in the country with pass defense, so we look for the Buckeyes to keep McCoy under control.
We also like to play ON a Bowl underdog that lost a Bowl game last year. Teams like to make the best of their time in the spotlight. In the case of a team that lost the previous year in a Bowl game the opportunity to erase the bitter taste of a Bowl defeat that has lasted a year can be a powerful motivator for a good effort, especially when the team seeking to reverse a defeat is made the underdog.
Ohio State has a LOT to prove after getting embarrassed on the national stage in the last 2 National Championship Games.
Meanwhile, Texas came up just short of having a shot at the National Championship this season, and could very well be a little flat here. Just 13-thousandths of a point kept the Longhorns from playing for the conference title. The Sooners then made the most of their chance, elevating themselves in the BCS standings by drilling Missouri.
In looking at some numbers, we note that Texas is:
0-7 ATS (-13.9 ppg) as a Bowl favorite with less than 3 SU losses on the season vs. opponents not off a conference road underdog SU loss & ATS win;
0-4 ATS (-14.2 ppg) as a favorite vs. the Big 10, while Ohio State is 4-0 SU (+15 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+19.9 ppg) all-time as an underdog vs. the Big 12.
The Buckeyes have struggled against SEC powers the last 2 years in their Bowl Games, but should fare much better here against the Big 12. Many have touted the play of the Big 12 this season, especially the Big 12 SOUTH division; however, teams from this division are already 0-2 SU & ATS with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech both losing big as favorites. The Longhorns are another Big 12 South team that came up short of the National Championship and now have to face an Ohio State with 2 big chips on their shoulders. We look for Ohio State to keep this game close throughout and give themselves a chance to surprise most everyone with an outright victory over the Longhorns.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OHIO STATE 28 TEXAS 21
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat (NBA) - 7:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 181.5/-111 Under Play Title: Cajuns NBA East- West Total POD 42-15 ATS!!
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American Airlines Arena will be the site of tonight’s rematch of the host Miami Heat and the visiting San Antonio Spurs. The first meeting between these two was back on November 7th and the Heat got the win on the road 99 to 83. The Spurs were without Tony Parker after the first half and Ginobili was already on the bench with an injury for that game. The Spurs will be at full strength on Monday night and will be looking to avenge that loss. San Antonio is known for their defensive prowess and the Heat are making a name for themselves in that department as well. They held the Cavs to 93 and 95 points respectively in back-to-back games and a pretty good Lakers team to only 87 points. Data base research has uncovered two NBA Systems that solidify our position on the “Under” in tonight’s contest. Play UNDER NBA road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points revenging a loss versus opponent of 10 points or more, with a team winning 60% or more of their games on the season, 42-15 Under the last five seasons and a perfect 2-0 Under this year. Play UNDER NBA road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, 47-22 Under the last three seasons and 8-1 Under this year. With fundamental, technical and situational support for the “Under” we will make this our NBA Total Play of the Day!
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) San Antonio / Miami UNDER 181.5
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