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Mon, 01/05/09 - 8:15 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side
Triple-Dime Bet <DT>
263 Ohio St. 9.0 (-110) Bodog vs 264 Texas <DD>Analysis: ***** NCAAFB 4* BOWL GAME of the YEAR ****
First off, although I had this game circled since the numbers were posted...the reason I held off from passing it along is because I was working on finding out what this number is going to do....Because I obviously want us to get the best we could, and if there is a chance that we can BUY it up to +10...then that is what we will do...
After speaking with the books we have access to...as well as some of the guys who move "Steam", here is what I do know....The "Outfits" were all over OSU as soon as the line came out and since then, each time they saw a 10 up there...they took it...Now it seems like all of the Public Money continues to come in on Texas, in Straight Bets and Teasers...so the books will definately end up being much heavier...both, in tickets written and money booked...on Texas...and as much as they want to move this line back up and make the Teaser a FG or more on the Texas side...they also don't want to have the "Outfits" send out more "Buy Orders", because the Public will be looking to lay -8, and the sharps taking +10...And in that scenario, too much can go wrong...So although I will be waiting it out to see if we can get a Better Number...9 may be as good as it gets...
The reason I had this one pegged when the numbers came out, is the exact same reason the "Outfits" got down as well...it's just way too many points to be giving...And LVSC Head Oddsmaker Ken White agreed, and said that this line is based soley on "Public Perception"...and since it's such a "Prime-Time" Game and on Monday Night right after the NFL Weekend...he was sure that the Public would think Texas is a much better team and therefore be willing to lay double digits in what they perceive is a "blow-out" waiting to happen...
Well not so fast....let's not forget this OSU team was Ranked #2 in the Nation when the season started...and they welcomed back "28" Seniors who will be playing their last game...More importantly, those Seniors who many could have been playing on Sunday this year...came back because they believed they would be able to win the Championship this year...
Things didn't go as planned early, and their stock plumetted in the eyes of the betting public....But over the 2nd half of the season, very few teams were playing better than the Buckeyes...
I feel they will be extremely motivated...and I expect the entire team to lay it all on the line for those seniors who will also be playing to erase the bad taste that they have from the previous 2 Bowls...
I look for the defense of OSU to create enough problems that Texas will have trouble getting into a rythem like they were able to against Big 12 opponents...and I also believe that the combo of Pryor and Wells, should be enough to sustain some time consuming drives...which will turn this into a game which OSU loves playing...
For weeks we have heard and seen all the stats and clippings...and have all tried to nail down the motivation for both teams...Listen, I'm not going to say that Texas won't be motivated, because to prove they should be in the BSC Championship, this will be a game they need to dominate...But the bottom line is, this isn't the Championship, so although we can all be trained to say the right things...deep down, we can't expect the same intensity that they would be bringing if they were playing on Thursday...
So let's put the motivation to the side...and the comparitive stats as well...and instead, keep it as simple as possible...
And that means, we must take a look at the price that's being offered and decide if it's high or low...and from there, either Buy or Pass...
In this situation...there is nobody who can justify Texas being sent out as a 10pt Fav, based on anything other than "Public Perception"...And although that don't mean they can't cover, it does mean that you are being asked to lay a price which isn't the actual worth of the club...And in this racket, the key to long term success...is making sure you are putting your money down when you are getting the best of it...
For Tonight's Fiesta Bowl...by backing OSU and taking the Points...that is exactly what we are doing...And that is not only my own professional opinion...but also that of the "sharp outfits" who backed it up with big money, enough to move the line...and finally, the opinion of the man who actually was responsible for sending this price to the books, Ken White...And although that's not a guarantee because the game must still be played...it is justification that taking the Points with OSU is getting our money down when we are getting the best of it...
So let's go ahead and take
OSU plus the Points (9 or Better which is explained above)...and make this Bet our
NCAAFB BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR...Total to Follow...VR
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