The Booooj...
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona<o></o>
15 Units on Ohio St. (+9) over Texas<o></o>
Ohio St. (10-2) vs. Texas (11-1)- Texas comes in to the Fiesta Bowl fifth in the nation in scoring offense led by Heisman trophy runner up Colt McCoy. McCoy has completed a staggering 77% of his passes this season, including 32 for touchdowns, for over 3,400 yards. He is also the Longhorns leading rusher with 576 yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s safe to say he will be the focal point of the Buckeyes defensive game plan. Ohio State’s offense will be triggered by the exciting freshman QB Terrelle Pryor. Pryor has been somewhat inconsistent this season, but with over 40 days to prepare for this game, expect Jim Tressel to take the wraps off of him in this one. As usual, the Buckeyes will hand the ball to Beanie Wells, early and often, and he could have a big game against a Texas defense that hasn’t seen a back as powerful, yet elusive, as Wells. On offense, Texas will need to establish a running game, outside of McCoy’s scrambling, to be successful. The biggest factor in the Horns one loss this season was their inability to get anything going on the ground, and it won’t be easy against a stout Buckeyes defense. Ohio St. matches up pretty well in the secondary against the Texas receivers, which could make it even more difficult to get the ground game going. Ohio St. is looking to prove that they belong among the nation’s elite, after back to back, non competitive losses in BCS games the past two seasons. I look for the Buckeyes to play an inspired game and keep this one close the whole way. Look for the game to be a little higher scoring than most expect. Texas by 3-7.<o></o>
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona<o
></o>15 Units on Ohio St. (+9) over Texas<o
></o>Ohio St. (10-2) vs. Texas (11-1)- Texas comes in to the Fiesta Bowl fifth in the nation in scoring offense led by Heisman trophy runner up Colt McCoy. McCoy has completed a staggering 77% of his passes this season, including 32 for touchdowns, for over 3,400 yards. He is also the Longhorns leading rusher with 576 yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s safe to say he will be the focal point of the Buckeyes defensive game plan. Ohio State’s offense will be triggered by the exciting freshman QB Terrelle Pryor. Pryor has been somewhat inconsistent this season, but with over 40 days to prepare for this game, expect Jim Tressel to take the wraps off of him in this one. As usual, the Buckeyes will hand the ball to Beanie Wells, early and often, and he could have a big game against a Texas defense that hasn’t seen a back as powerful, yet elusive, as Wells. On offense, Texas will need to establish a running game, outside of McCoy’s scrambling, to be successful. The biggest factor in the Horns one loss this season was their inability to get anything going on the ground, and it won’t be easy against a stout Buckeyes defense. Ohio St. matches up pretty well in the secondary against the Texas receivers, which could make it even more difficult to get the ground game going. Ohio St. is looking to prove that they belong among the nation’s elite, after back to back, non competitive losses in BCS games the past two seasons. I look for the Buckeyes to play an inspired game and keep this one close the whole way. Look for the game to be a little higher scoring than most expect. Texas by 3-7.<o
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Jim Feist
INDIANA PACERS at DENVER NUGGETS
Take: OVER 221
Reason: The Pacers defense will never be confused with the Celtics, that's for sure. The Pacers are dead last in the Central Division of the Eastern Conference. Their defense, or lack thereof, has been one of the big problems for this club. The Pacers can score points, averaging nearly 103ppg and ranking 6th in the NBA. But they give them up in bunches too, allowing nearly 105ppg and ranking 17th in the league. And, it likely won't get any better tonight against the Nuggets, the league's 4th highest scoring team. The Pacers haven't held an opponent under 100 points in their last six straight games and have seen 10 of their last 12 games go OVER the total. As for the Nuggets, their defense is ranking in the bottom third of the league and they have seen their last seven games go OVER the total. Looks like another shootout tonight in the Mile High City. Take the over and enjoy the show.
LOOKS HOT
INDIANA PACERS at DENVER NUGGETS
Take: OVER 221
Reason: The Pacers defense will never be confused with the Celtics, that's for sure. The Pacers are dead last in the Central Division of the Eastern Conference. Their defense, or lack thereof, has been one of the big problems for this club. The Pacers can score points, averaging nearly 103ppg and ranking 6th in the NBA. But they give them up in bunches too, allowing nearly 105ppg and ranking 17th in the league. And, it likely won't get any better tonight against the Nuggets, the league's 4th highest scoring team. The Pacers haven't held an opponent under 100 points in their last six straight games and have seen 10 of their last 12 games go OVER the total. As for the Nuggets, their defense is ranking in the bottom third of the league and they have seen their last seven games go OVER the total. Looks like another shootout tonight in the Mile High City. Take the over and enjoy the show.
LOOKS HOT
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Ohio St. (+9) 23 TEXAS 24
Fiesta Bowl
05-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Texas is a very tough team to figure out, as their rating based on compensated point margins varies significantly from their rating based on compensated yardage, turnovers, etc. more than any team in the nation. In other words, the Longhorns have out-played their stats by a huge margin. The question is whether that discrepancy is random variance or if the Longhorns are actually much more efficient with their yardage than a normal team with the same stats would be - and whether that extreme level of efficiency will continue in this game. Either way, the Buckeyes are still the side to take in this game.
Texas was an impressive team statistically this season, out-gaining their opponents 6.6 yards per play to 5.3 yppl while facing a schedule of teams that would out-gain an average team 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl – so the Longhorns were 1.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage. Ohio State, meanwhile, is 0.9 yppl better than average offensively with RB Beanie Wells healthy (he missed time early in the season) and with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback (he’s been a huge upgrade over original starter Todd Boeckman) and the Buckeyes are 1.1 yppl better than average defensively (4.6 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team). Ohio State is 2.0 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage, so they actually have a slight edge in this game from the line of scrimmage while also having an advantage in projected turnovers (by 0.25 turnovers) and in special teams. Ohio State is a better team than Texas based on the stats and my math model favors the Buckeyes to win straight up.
Unfortunately, it’s not as simple as looking at the projected yardage, turnovers, etc, as Texas out-played their stats by 11.0 points per game. Let me explain. A team with the Longhorns statistics (i.e. out-gaining their opponents by 133 total yards, by 1.3 yppl, with a +0.25 average turnover margin and with their special teams numbers) would normally out-score their opponents by 14.3 points per game. Texas, however, out-scored their opponents by an average margin of 25.3 points (43.9 to 18.6 points). Usually, the actual point margin is within a few points of the projected margin based on the stats and the difference is usually something like higher than expected 3rd down efficiencies or red-zone scoring, but I’ve never seen a discrepancy of anywhere close to 11.0 points between the projected and actual point margin. The good news is that my math favors Ohio State by 5 ½ points based on the projected stats in this game, so I’d favor Texas by only 5 ½ points even if they continue to out-play their stats by 11 points per game (which is unlikely). Texas also didn’t out-play their stats by as much against good opponents, as they only out-played their stats by 4.2 points against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. However, Texas also played better from the line of scrimmage in those games, on a relative basis, rating at +2.3 yppl instead of +1.9 yppl (their season rating). Using only the Longhorns’ games against other very good teams (which is reasonable since Ohio State is in that category) would result in a prediction of Texas by only 1 ½ points even if added the 4.2 points that they out-played their stats in those games.
Ohio State only had two games against elite teams, at USC in week 3 and at home against Penn State in week 9. The USC game resulted in a 10-35 loss as the Buckeyes were out-gained 3.3 yppl to 5.6 yppl by the Trojans, who have the best rating in the nation from the line of scrimmage and would out-gain an average team by 3.8 yppl at home. Ohio State was still 1.5 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage in that game (-2.3 yppl + 3.8 yppl for playing at USC) even without star RB Beanie Wells, who was injured and didn’t play and withTerrelle Pryor only coming into the game when it was too late. Wells is much better than the other Ohio State running backs and Pryor is much better than Boeckman, who had 25 pass plays for just 54 yards in that game and threw 2 picks. I can approximate how well the Buckeyes would have played offensively with Wells healthy and with Pryor playing the entire game at quarterback by substituting in the difference in the compensated statistics for Ohio State’s running game with Wells and the Buckeyes’ compensated running rating in the 3 games without him while also adding in the difference between Pryor’s compensated yards per pass play rating and Boeckman’s compensated yppp rating for the 25 pass plays the Boeckman had in that game. Had Wells and Pryor been the starting backfield for Ohio State I project that they would have averaged 4.2 yppl at USC rather than the 3.3 yppl that they did average in that game. That would make them +2.4 yppl for the game had they been playing with the offense that they have now. Perhaps that too much speculation, but Ohio State would have certainly been better than their decent +1.5 yppl rating that they did have in that game. Ohio State was +2.4 yppl from the line of scrimmage against Penn State, out-gaining the Nittany Lions 5.1 yppl to 4.9 yppl and losing by 3 points because of a -2 in turnover margin. Penn State would out-gain an average team by 2.2 yppl on the road, so that makes the Buckeyes +2.4 yppl, which is exactly what I projected they would have been at USC with their current lineup. Like the Longhorns, Ohio State also played better than normal in games against elite teams and I’m convinced that they’ll be able to match Texas from the line of scrimmage and at the very least keep this game close even if Texas out-plays their stats.
In addition to the line value, Ohio State applies to a 52-17-1 ATS situation while Texas applies to a negative 22-50 ATS situation. I’ll take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more. I’ll also lean with the Under in this game at 51 points or higher.
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2 Star Selection
Ohio St. (+9) 23 TEXAS 24
Fiesta Bowl
05-Jan-09 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Texas is a very tough team to figure out, as their rating based on compensated point margins varies significantly from their rating based on compensated yardage, turnovers, etc. more than any team in the nation. In other words, the Longhorns have out-played their stats by a huge margin. The question is whether that discrepancy is random variance or if the Longhorns are actually much more efficient with their yardage than a normal team with the same stats would be - and whether that extreme level of efficiency will continue in this game. Either way, the Buckeyes are still the side to take in this game.
Texas was an impressive team statistically this season, out-gaining their opponents 6.6 yards per play to 5.3 yppl while facing a schedule of teams that would out-gain an average team 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl – so the Longhorns were 1.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage. Ohio State, meanwhile, is 0.9 yppl better than average offensively with RB Beanie Wells healthy (he missed time early in the season) and with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback (he’s been a huge upgrade over original starter Todd Boeckman) and the Buckeyes are 1.1 yppl better than average defensively (4.6 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team). Ohio State is 2.0 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage, so they actually have a slight edge in this game from the line of scrimmage while also having an advantage in projected turnovers (by 0.25 turnovers) and in special teams. Ohio State is a better team than Texas based on the stats and my math model favors the Buckeyes to win straight up.
Unfortunately, it’s not as simple as looking at the projected yardage, turnovers, etc, as Texas out-played their stats by 11.0 points per game. Let me explain. A team with the Longhorns statistics (i.e. out-gaining their opponents by 133 total yards, by 1.3 yppl, with a +0.25 average turnover margin and with their special teams numbers) would normally out-score their opponents by 14.3 points per game. Texas, however, out-scored their opponents by an average margin of 25.3 points (43.9 to 18.6 points). Usually, the actual point margin is within a few points of the projected margin based on the stats and the difference is usually something like higher than expected 3rd down efficiencies or red-zone scoring, but I’ve never seen a discrepancy of anywhere close to 11.0 points between the projected and actual point margin. The good news is that my math favors Ohio State by 5 ½ points based on the projected stats in this game, so I’d favor Texas by only 5 ½ points even if they continue to out-play their stats by 11 points per game (which is unlikely). Texas also didn’t out-play their stats by as much against good opponents, as they only out-played their stats by 4.2 points against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. However, Texas also played better from the line of scrimmage in those games, on a relative basis, rating at +2.3 yppl instead of +1.9 yppl (their season rating). Using only the Longhorns’ games against other very good teams (which is reasonable since Ohio State is in that category) would result in a prediction of Texas by only 1 ½ points even if added the 4.2 points that they out-played their stats in those games.
Ohio State only had two games against elite teams, at USC in week 3 and at home against Penn State in week 9. The USC game resulted in a 10-35 loss as the Buckeyes were out-gained 3.3 yppl to 5.6 yppl by the Trojans, who have the best rating in the nation from the line of scrimmage and would out-gain an average team by 3.8 yppl at home. Ohio State was still 1.5 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage in that game (-2.3 yppl + 3.8 yppl for playing at USC) even without star RB Beanie Wells, who was injured and didn’t play and withTerrelle Pryor only coming into the game when it was too late. Wells is much better than the other Ohio State running backs and Pryor is much better than Boeckman, who had 25 pass plays for just 54 yards in that game and threw 2 picks. I can approximate how well the Buckeyes would have played offensively with Wells healthy and with Pryor playing the entire game at quarterback by substituting in the difference in the compensated statistics for Ohio State’s running game with Wells and the Buckeyes’ compensated running rating in the 3 games without him while also adding in the difference between Pryor’s compensated yards per pass play rating and Boeckman’s compensated yppp rating for the 25 pass plays the Boeckman had in that game. Had Wells and Pryor been the starting backfield for Ohio State I project that they would have averaged 4.2 yppl at USC rather than the 3.3 yppl that they did average in that game. That would make them +2.4 yppl for the game had they been playing with the offense that they have now. Perhaps that too much speculation, but Ohio State would have certainly been better than their decent +1.5 yppl rating that they did have in that game. Ohio State was +2.4 yppl from the line of scrimmage against Penn State, out-gaining the Nittany Lions 5.1 yppl to 4.9 yppl and losing by 3 points because of a -2 in turnover margin. Penn State would out-gain an average team by 2.2 yppl on the road, so that makes the Buckeyes +2.4 yppl, which is exactly what I projected they would have been at USC with their current lineup. Like the Longhorns, Ohio State also played better than normal in games against elite teams and I’m convinced that they’ll be able to match Texas from the line of scrimmage and at the very least keep this game close even if Texas out-plays their stats.
In addition to the line value, Ohio State applies to a 52-17-1 ATS situation while Texas applies to a negative 22-50 ATS situation. I’ll take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more. I’ll also lean with the Under in this game at 51 points or higher.
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WUNDERDOG
Game: San Antonio at Miami (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 181.5 -110
Things are changing in Miami! The NFL Dolphins went from worst to first in the NFL East and the Heat has gone from a team that won just 15 games a year ago, to one that has already surpassed that total this season at 18-14. They have creeped up to #15 in my NBA power rankings and right now they are playing about as good as they have all season, winners in six of their last eight. Two of those wins came against a couple of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and the Cavs. They limited two of the NBA's top offenses to 90 ppg in those wins and are getting it done on the defensive end. The Spurs are hot as well claiming wins in 13 of their last 16 games. The road however isn't where they are making strides against the good teams, where they are just 3-4 with offense not coming easily. The Spurs have always been a defense first team, and the last three on the road vs .500 or better teams have gone UNDER. The Heat have shown the ability to hold down good offenses. I like the UNDER here.
Game: San Antonio at Miami (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 181.5 -110
Things are changing in Miami! The NFL Dolphins went from worst to first in the NFL East and the Heat has gone from a team that won just 15 games a year ago, to one that has already surpassed that total this season at 18-14. They have creeped up to #15 in my NBA power rankings and right now they are playing about as good as they have all season, winners in six of their last eight. Two of those wins came against a couple of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and the Cavs. They limited two of the NBA's top offenses to 90 ppg in those wins and are getting it done on the defensive end. The Spurs are hot as well claiming wins in 13 of their last 16 games. The road however isn't where they are making strides against the good teams, where they are just 3-4 with offense not coming easily. The Spurs have always been a defense first team, and the last three on the road vs .500 or better teams have gone UNDER. The Heat have shown the ability to hold down good offenses. I like the UNDER here.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FIESTA BOWL
(10) Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) vs. (3) Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS) (at Glendale, Ariz.)
Texas, which had its BCS championship hopes dashed on a tiebreaker ruling in the Big 12 South, will instead settle for a Fiesta Bowl contest at University of Phoenix Stadium against Ohio State, which finished second in the Big Ten.
Following their last-second 39-33 loss at Texas Tech as a 3½-point chalk, the Longhorns finished the season on a 3-0 SU run (2-1 ATS), winning the three games by a combined score of 129-37. They capped the year with a 49-9 bashing of instate rival Texas A&M as an overwhelming 35-point home chalk on Nov. 27. QB Colt McCoy (23 of 28, 311 yards, 2 TDs) led a turnover-free offense that day, and RB Cody Johnson (eight carries, 102 yards, 2 TDs) paced a ground game that rolled up 216 yards as Texas finished with a whopping 536-245 edge in total yards. The Aggies were saddled with minus-24 yards rushing.
The Longhorns tied Oklahoma and Texas Tech for first place in the Big 12 South, but the Sooners beat out both squads in the BCS standings, which the conference used as the tiebreaker – even though Texas beat Oklahoma outright 45-35 as a seven-point pup in a neutral-site game in Dallas in October.
Ohio State won and covered in its last three games, scoring 30 points or more in all three, including a 42-7 whitewashing of archrival Michigan as a 20½-point home chalk to end the regular season. True freshman QB Terrelle Pryor (5 of 13, 120 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was a bit uneven, but he got all the help he needed from a rushing attack that netted 232 yards. RBs Chris Wells (15 carries, 134 yards, 1 TD) and Daniel Herron (8 carries, 80 yards, 2 TDs) paved the way, and the Buckeyes outgained the Wolverines by an eye-popping 416-198 margin.
These teams played a home-and-home set in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, with the road team winning and covering in both games. In the 2006 contest, Ohio State rolled 24-7 in Austin as a three-point pup, avenging a 25-22 loss in Columbus as a 1½-point home underdog during its 2005 national championship season.
Texas is playing in its third BCS bowl (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), with its most recent effort a thrilling 41-38 win over Southern California in the Rose Bowl following the 2005 season, which gave the Longhorns the national title. Coach Mack Brown has led Texas to bowl games in each of his 10 years at the school (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) and is 11-6 (8-9 ATS) for his career in bowl games.
Ohio State is making its seventh BCS bowl appearance (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the Buckeyes have been blown out in the national title game each of the past two seasons, suffering a 41-14 loss to Florida two years ago and a 38-24 setback to LSU last year. This will be Ohio State’s fifth Arizona bowl trip since 2002, and they’ve gone 3-1 SU and ATS in the previous four, including claiming the national title with a 31-24 upset of Miami as a 12-point underdog following the 2002 regular season. Coach Jim Tressel is 4-3 SU and ATS in postseason play since arriving in Columbus.
Texas rates among the top 10 in the country offensively in three major categories: points (43.9 per game, fourth), total yards (476.4, ninth) and passing yards (299.5, 10th), and the Longhorns also put up a healthy 176.9 rushing ypg (34th). QB Colt McCoy completed a sterling 77.6 percent of his passes for 3,445 yards with 32 TDs and just seven INTs, and he also led the team in rushing with 576 yards and another 10 scores. Texas had four players rush for at least 330 yards.
Defensively, the Longhorns allow 339.9 ypg (50th), but they rate second nationally in rushing defense (73.6 ypg) and 18th in points allowed (18.6). Defensive end Brian Orapko has a team-leading 10½ sacks.
Ohio State has one of the nation’s better rushing attacks (191.6 ypg, 26th), but the Buckeyes level off from there with per-game averages of 28.2 points (42nd), 148.1 passing yards (105th) and 339.7 total yards (79th). Wells has rushed for 1,091 yards on 191 carries (5.7 ypc) and eight TDs, despite missing three games with a foot injury. Pryor, who took over the starting role in the fourth game, completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,245 yards, with 12 TDs and four INTs, and he also ran for 553 yards and six scores.
The Buckeyes field one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing per-game averages of 13.1 points (sixth), 114.9 rushing yards (20th), 164.3 passing yards (seventh) and a stingy 279.2 total yards (seventh). Linebacker James Laurinaitis led the way with 121 tackles.
The Longhorns are on ATS sprees of 10-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 6-1 at neutral sites, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 8-2 after a SU win and 9-3 as a chalk, but they are also on ATS hiccups of 0-4 against the Big Ten and 2-6 as a bowl favorite.
The Buckeyes have cashed in four of their last five games and are on a 4-1 ATS run against Big 12 foes, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 0-4 outside the Big Ten, 2-8 following a SU win of more than 20 points and 1-4 on Mondays, and they are on an 0-4 SU and ATS slide against Top 10 opposition.
The over for Texas is on rolls of 6-2 at neutral sites, 6-2 in bowl games and 12-4 against winning teams, and the over for Ohio State is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on grass, 5-1 in January and 5-2 in postseason play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Georgetown (10-2, 5-3 ATS) at (7) Notre Dame (10-3, 4-4 ATS)
Georgetown and Notre Dame, both of whom are coming off upset losses in Big East play, get together at the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind., in the only regular-season meeting between the schools.
The Hoyas, playing the second of three straight games against Top 10 opponents, got steamrolled by unbeaten and third-ranked Pitt on Saturday, falling 70-54 as a 3½-point home favorite to end a seven-game SU and four-game ATS winning streak. Georgetown, which knocked off second-ranked UConn 74-63 as a 6½-point underdog a week ago tonight, shot just 35.3 percent from the field (18-for-51) against Pitt and got completely destroyed on the glass (43-17). Prior to Saturday, the Hoyas had scored at least 69 points in eight consecutive contests.
Notre Dame went to St. John’s on Saturday riding a four-game winning streak and laying 8½ points, but the Irish got tripped up, 71-65. The Irish made just 43.5 percent of their shots, going 4 of 17 from 3-point range, and they, too, were dominated on the glass (40-27). Notre Dame matched its second lowest point output of the season against the Red Storm, finishing way below its season averages for points per game (80.8) and field-goal offense (46.7 percent).
Georgetown is on a five-game winning streak in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). In last year’s lone battle, the Hoyas rolled to an 84-65 win as an 8½-point home favorite. Even though Georgetown has covered three of the last four against the Irish as a favorite, the underdog is on a 10-4-1 ATS roll in this series.
Notre Dame is 0-4-1 ATS in it last five games played on Monday, but it is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Hoyas are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 17-5 after a SU defeat and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they’ve failed to cash in four straight games following a double-digit home loss.
Georgetown is on under streaks of 4-1 overall, 13-4 on the road, 38-17 in Big East play, 5-0 on Monday and 18-10-1 after a SU defeat. Conversely, Notre Dame is on over stretches of 17-8 overall, 7-3 at home, 19-7 in conference play, 7-2 on Mondays and 20-9 after a SU defeat. Also, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 series meetings between these foes and 5-1 in the last six clashes in South Bend.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (22-11, 15-17-1 ATS) at Miami (18-14, 13-18-1 ATS)
Two teams playing solid basketball hook up at American Airlines Arena in South Beach, as the Spurs clash with the Heat.
San Antonio has won two in a row, seven of eight and 13 of 16, most recently edging the 76ers 108-106 on Saturday, falling way short as a 9½-point home chalk. It marked the third time in the last four games that the Spurs’ normally stout defense allowed at least 100 points. Although the Spurs are winning, they’re struggling to cover pointspreads, going 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10. However, Gregg Popovich’s club is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the highway.
Miami needed overtime to knock off New Jersey 101-96 on Saturday, failing to cover as an eight-point favorite. Although the Heat have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, they’re 6-2 in their last eight (5-3 ATS). Miami has turned up the defensive intensity lately, holding its last six opponents to 89.2 points per game.
The Heat went to San Antonio on Nov. 7 and stunned the Spurs 99-90 as a seven-point road underdog, improving to 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings (2-2 SU). In last year’s lone meeting in South Beach, the Spurs eked out a 90-89 victory, but Miami covered as a 9½-point underdog. The host is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 series clashes, with San Antonio going 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.
In addition to its 8-3 ATS streak on the road, San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in its last four on Mondays and 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games played on one day of rest. However, the Spurs are in pointspread declines of 0-5-1 versus the Eastern conference, 1-4 after a SU win and 1-7 after allowing 100 points in their previous game.
Miami is in pointspread ruts of 3-7-1 against the Western Conference, 2-5-1 versus the Southwest Division, 0-5 on Monday, 8-26-1 after a SU win, 1-5 after a non-cover and 3-10 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under is 15-2 in the last 17 battles between these squads, including 7-1 in the last eight at American Airlines Arena. Also, for Miami, the under is on stretches of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 versus the Western Conference and 6-1 versus the Southwest Division. Finally, San Antonio is on under streaks of 28-13-1 overall, 37-18-1 on the road, 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 19-7 against the Southeast Division, 4-0 on Monday, 16-7 when playing on one day of rest and 10-3-1 after giving up 100 points in its previous game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
FIESTA BOWL
(10) Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) vs. (3) Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS) (at Glendale, Ariz.)
Texas, which had its BCS championship hopes dashed on a tiebreaker ruling in the Big 12 South, will instead settle for a Fiesta Bowl contest at University of Phoenix Stadium against Ohio State, which finished second in the Big Ten.
Following their last-second 39-33 loss at Texas Tech as a 3½-point chalk, the Longhorns finished the season on a 3-0 SU run (2-1 ATS), winning the three games by a combined score of 129-37. They capped the year with a 49-9 bashing of instate rival Texas A&M as an overwhelming 35-point home chalk on Nov. 27. QB Colt McCoy (23 of 28, 311 yards, 2 TDs) led a turnover-free offense that day, and RB Cody Johnson (eight carries, 102 yards, 2 TDs) paced a ground game that rolled up 216 yards as Texas finished with a whopping 536-245 edge in total yards. The Aggies were saddled with minus-24 yards rushing.
The Longhorns tied Oklahoma and Texas Tech for first place in the Big 12 South, but the Sooners beat out both squads in the BCS standings, which the conference used as the tiebreaker – even though Texas beat Oklahoma outright 45-35 as a seven-point pup in a neutral-site game in Dallas in October.
Ohio State won and covered in its last three games, scoring 30 points or more in all three, including a 42-7 whitewashing of archrival Michigan as a 20½-point home chalk to end the regular season. True freshman QB Terrelle Pryor (5 of 13, 120 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was a bit uneven, but he got all the help he needed from a rushing attack that netted 232 yards. RBs Chris Wells (15 carries, 134 yards, 1 TD) and Daniel Herron (8 carries, 80 yards, 2 TDs) paved the way, and the Buckeyes outgained the Wolverines by an eye-popping 416-198 margin.
These teams played a home-and-home set in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, with the road team winning and covering in both games. In the 2006 contest, Ohio State rolled 24-7 in Austin as a three-point pup, avenging a 25-22 loss in Columbus as a 1½-point home underdog during its 2005 national championship season.
Texas is playing in its third BCS bowl (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS), with its most recent effort a thrilling 41-38 win over Southern California in the Rose Bowl following the 2005 season, which gave the Longhorns the national title. Coach Mack Brown has led Texas to bowl games in each of his 10 years at the school (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) and is 11-6 (8-9 ATS) for his career in bowl games.
Ohio State is making its seventh BCS bowl appearance (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS), but the Buckeyes have been blown out in the national title game each of the past two seasons, suffering a 41-14 loss to Florida two years ago and a 38-24 setback to LSU last year. This will be Ohio State’s fifth Arizona bowl trip since 2002, and they’ve gone 3-1 SU and ATS in the previous four, including claiming the national title with a 31-24 upset of Miami as a 12-point underdog following the 2002 regular season. Coach Jim Tressel is 4-3 SU and ATS in postseason play since arriving in Columbus.
Texas rates among the top 10 in the country offensively in three major categories: points (43.9 per game, fourth), total yards (476.4, ninth) and passing yards (299.5, 10th), and the Longhorns also put up a healthy 176.9 rushing ypg (34th). QB Colt McCoy completed a sterling 77.6 percent of his passes for 3,445 yards with 32 TDs and just seven INTs, and he also led the team in rushing with 576 yards and another 10 scores. Texas had four players rush for at least 330 yards.
Defensively, the Longhorns allow 339.9 ypg (50th), but they rate second nationally in rushing defense (73.6 ypg) and 18th in points allowed (18.6). Defensive end Brian Orapko has a team-leading 10½ sacks.
Ohio State has one of the nation’s better rushing attacks (191.6 ypg, 26th), but the Buckeyes level off from there with per-game averages of 28.2 points (42nd), 148.1 passing yards (105th) and 339.7 total yards (79th). Wells has rushed for 1,091 yards on 191 carries (5.7 ypc) and eight TDs, despite missing three games with a foot injury. Pryor, who took over the starting role in the fourth game, completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,245 yards, with 12 TDs and four INTs, and he also ran for 553 yards and six scores.
The Buckeyes field one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing per-game averages of 13.1 points (sixth), 114.9 rushing yards (20th), 164.3 passing yards (seventh) and a stingy 279.2 total yards (seventh). Linebacker James Laurinaitis led the way with 121 tackles.
The Longhorns are on ATS sprees of 10-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference play, 6-1 at neutral sites, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 8-2 after a SU win and 9-3 as a chalk, but they are also on ATS hiccups of 0-4 against the Big Ten and 2-6 as a bowl favorite.
The Buckeyes have cashed in four of their last five games and are on a 4-1 ATS run against Big 12 foes, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 0-4 outside the Big Ten, 2-8 following a SU win of more than 20 points and 1-4 on Mondays, and they are on an 0-4 SU and ATS slide against Top 10 opposition.
The over for Texas is on rolls of 6-2 at neutral sites, 6-2 in bowl games and 12-4 against winning teams, and the over for Ohio State is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on grass, 5-1 in January and 5-2 in postseason play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Georgetown (10-2, 5-3 ATS) at (7) Notre Dame (10-3, 4-4 ATS)
Georgetown and Notre Dame, both of whom are coming off upset losses in Big East play, get together at the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind., in the only regular-season meeting between the schools.
The Hoyas, playing the second of three straight games against Top 10 opponents, got steamrolled by unbeaten and third-ranked Pitt on Saturday, falling 70-54 as a 3½-point home favorite to end a seven-game SU and four-game ATS winning streak. Georgetown, which knocked off second-ranked UConn 74-63 as a 6½-point underdog a week ago tonight, shot just 35.3 percent from the field (18-for-51) against Pitt and got completely destroyed on the glass (43-17). Prior to Saturday, the Hoyas had scored at least 69 points in eight consecutive contests.
Notre Dame went to St. John’s on Saturday riding a four-game winning streak and laying 8½ points, but the Irish got tripped up, 71-65. The Irish made just 43.5 percent of their shots, going 4 of 17 from 3-point range, and they, too, were dominated on the glass (40-27). Notre Dame matched its second lowest point output of the season against the Red Storm, finishing way below its season averages for points per game (80.8) and field-goal offense (46.7 percent).
Georgetown is on a five-game winning streak in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). In last year’s lone battle, the Hoyas rolled to an 84-65 win as an 8½-point home favorite. Even though Georgetown has covered three of the last four against the Irish as a favorite, the underdog is on a 10-4-1 ATS roll in this series.
Notre Dame is 0-4-1 ATS in it last five games played on Monday, but it is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Hoyas are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 17-5 after a SU defeat and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they’ve failed to cash in four straight games following a double-digit home loss.
Georgetown is on under streaks of 4-1 overall, 13-4 on the road, 38-17 in Big East play, 5-0 on Monday and 18-10-1 after a SU defeat. Conversely, Notre Dame is on over stretches of 17-8 overall, 7-3 at home, 19-7 in conference play, 7-2 on Mondays and 20-9 after a SU defeat. Also, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 series meetings between these foes and 5-1 in the last six clashes in South Bend.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (22-11, 15-17-1 ATS) at Miami (18-14, 13-18-1 ATS)
Two teams playing solid basketball hook up at American Airlines Arena in South Beach, as the Spurs clash with the Heat.
San Antonio has won two in a row, seven of eight and 13 of 16, most recently edging the 76ers 108-106 on Saturday, falling way short as a 9½-point home chalk. It marked the third time in the last four games that the Spurs’ normally stout defense allowed at least 100 points. Although the Spurs are winning, they’re struggling to cover pointspreads, going 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10. However, Gregg Popovich’s club is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the highway.
Miami needed overtime to knock off New Jersey 101-96 on Saturday, failing to cover as an eight-point favorite. Although the Heat have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, they’re 6-2 in their last eight (5-3 ATS). Miami has turned up the defensive intensity lately, holding its last six opponents to 89.2 points per game.
The Heat went to San Antonio on Nov. 7 and stunned the Spurs 99-90 as a seven-point road underdog, improving to 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings (2-2 SU). In last year’s lone meeting in South Beach, the Spurs eked out a 90-89 victory, but Miami covered as a 9½-point underdog. The host is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 series clashes, with San Antonio going 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Miami.
In addition to its 8-3 ATS streak on the road, San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in its last four on Mondays and 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games played on one day of rest. However, the Spurs are in pointspread declines of 0-5-1 versus the Eastern conference, 1-4 after a SU win and 1-7 after allowing 100 points in their previous game.
Miami is in pointspread ruts of 3-7-1 against the Western Conference, 2-5-1 versus the Southwest Division, 0-5 on Monday, 8-26-1 after a SU win, 1-5 after a non-cover and 3-10 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under is 15-2 in the last 17 battles between these squads, including 7-1 in the last eight at American Airlines Arena. Also, for Miami, the under is on stretches of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 versus the Western Conference and 6-1 versus the Southwest Division. Finally, San Antonio is on under streaks of 28-13-1 overall, 37-18-1 on the road, 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 19-7 against the Southeast Division, 4-0 on Monday, 16-7 when playing on one day of rest and 10-3-1 after giving up 100 points in its previous game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Bob Balfe
College Football
Ohio State/Texas Under 52
There are not too many people giving OSU a chance in this game. The last three big games for OSU have been huge losses, but the three teams they lost to Florida, LSU and this season USC might go down as some of the top teams in College Football history. Texas should be playing in a Title Game and feel they got snubbed. How many times do teams get into lower bowl games and just not show up? I think Texas will be focused for this game, but they have not seen a defense like Ohio State's all season. Ohio State's bread and butter is the running game however Texas actually was second best in the country at stopping the run. This could be due to the fact that everyone in the BIG 12 passed the ball, but still a very impressive stat. I think this game boils down to a bunch of OSU seniors playing their hearts out. These seniors have been through a lot of blowout losses in similar situations. Texas has a great offense, but I do think they get contained tonight. This is a pretty low total as it opened at 54 and now is at 52. Not too many people will be betting the Under tonight so why would Vegas move the line down? I would not be shocked to see OSU get the upset, but I do not see both teams scoring enough to push this over the total. Take the UNDER.
NBA Basketball
Warriors +10over Jazz
NCAA Basketball
Valparaiso +7 over Wisc Milwaukee
College Football
Ohio State/Texas Under 52
There are not too many people giving OSU a chance in this game. The last three big games for OSU have been huge losses, but the three teams they lost to Florida, LSU and this season USC might go down as some of the top teams in College Football history. Texas should be playing in a Title Game and feel they got snubbed. How many times do teams get into lower bowl games and just not show up? I think Texas will be focused for this game, but they have not seen a defense like Ohio State's all season. Ohio State's bread and butter is the running game however Texas actually was second best in the country at stopping the run. This could be due to the fact that everyone in the BIG 12 passed the ball, but still a very impressive stat. I think this game boils down to a bunch of OSU seniors playing their hearts out. These seniors have been through a lot of blowout losses in similar situations. Texas has a great offense, but I do think they get contained tonight. This is a pretty low total as it opened at 54 and now is at 52. Not too many people will be betting the Under tonight so why would Vegas move the line down? I would not be shocked to see OSU get the upset, but I do not see both teams scoring enough to push this over the total. Take the UNDER.
NBA Basketball
Warriors +10over Jazz
NCAA Basketball
Valparaiso +7 over Wisc Milwaukee
SUNSHINE FORECAST
Monday, January 5, 2009
Ohio State(+10) vs. Texas [Fiesta Bowl]
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 31 Ohio State 20
Statistical Projections
Ohio State 23
Rushing Yards: 137
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 1 Texas 28
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 31 Ohio State 21
Monday, January 5, 2009
Ohio State(+10) vs. Texas [Fiesta Bowl]
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 31 Ohio State 20
Statistical Projections
Ohio State 23
Rushing Yards: 137
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 1 Texas 28
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 31 Ohio State 21
