Jimmy Boyd's Pick Pack
NBA Daily Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Denver at Utah
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Utah (+4 -105)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 13, 2014 @ 11:26:09 AM EST
3* Bailout Blowout on Jazz +
We are getting a lot of value on the Jazz as an underdog at home in this matchup with Denver. I think the oddsmakers have overvalued the Nuggets based on their recent win streak. Utah is also on a nice run winning three of their last five games and covering the spread in four of their last six games. Utah should have no problem getting points on the board against Denver. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 103.5 points per game against division opponents this season. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the Jazz have dominated the series when they are playing at home. Utah is 30-7 straight up against Denver since 1996. These teams also met last month in Denver and the Jazz picked up a 10 point win on the road. Utah is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off a double-digit loss at home, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on home underdogs like Utah when they have a losing record on the season, but are extremely well rested playing five or less games in the last 14 days. This system is 41-18 (70%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against road teams like Denver when they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more and they are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more against their opponent. This system is 161-100 (62%) against the spread.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Houston at Boston
Time: 7:35 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Houston (-5.5 -108)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 13, 2014 @ 11:26:09 AM EST
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Rockets -
The Celtics are in a horrible slump right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is coming off a five game road trip, and I think they will have a bad letdown performance in their first game back home. This will be Boston’s eighth game in the New Year, while Houston is playing in just their fifth game of 2014. I like the Rockets to easily cover this spread with such a favorable rest profile. Over their last five games Boston has surrendered 114 points per game. They will have a hard time improving on that number in this matchup since the Rockets are third in the league in scoring with 105.3 points per game. Houston also has a big advantage on the boards with a +4 figure in rebounding margin. The Celtics on the other hand have a -2 figure in rebounding margin this season. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Celtics. You should play against underdogs like Boston when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more against their opponent, and they are coming off two consecutive road games where they covered the spread but still lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 54-22 (71%) against the spread.
