GC: NBA Play
Monday card has a pair of NBA Totals with a 92% system and over 8 totals angles, 4 of which are perfect NBA Top play cashed on Spurs on Sunday. NCAAB 5* Blowout Tonight. NBA Double system play below.
On Monday the NBA play is on the Milwaukee Bucks. Game 701 at 7:05 eastern. the Bucks are taking nearly 12 points in this game and one must really reach down and grab them when making Milwaukee a Play. However that is what we will do here tonight. There are 2 nice systems that are in play here that show this game to be a classic win and no cover for the Favorite in this game which is Toronto. First we want to play against home favorites of 10 or more that come in off a home favored win and cover at -5 or more vs a conference opponent vs an opponent that scored 90 or less in a road dog +10 or higher loss that also failed to cover. If the total is 180 or higher these favorites are 1-13 to the spread. We also note that road dogs of 10 or more that scored 90 or less as double digit road dog and had 15 or less turnovers are 11-1 ats. The Raptors are a perfect 9-0 ats since Christmas day but the line is inflated and they are just 1-5 to the spread as a home favorite of 10 or more. The Bucks are 3-0 ats as a road dog of 10 or more and have covered 6 straight here in Toronto. On Monday we have 2 Powerful NBA Totals plays from our Top ranked NBA Service, one has a 92% totals system and their are over 8 angles combined and 4 are undefeated. Last nights top play cashed with The Spurs. We also have a College Hoops Blowout side. Jump on and start the week big. For the NBA play take Milwaukee plays the points. GC
Monday card has a pair of NBA Totals with a 92% system and over 8 totals angles, 4 of which are perfect NBA Top play cashed on Spurs on Sunday. NCAAB 5* Blowout Tonight. NBA Double system play below.
On Monday the NBA play is on the Milwaukee Bucks. Game 701 at 7:05 eastern. the Bucks are taking nearly 12 points in this game and one must really reach down and grab them when making Milwaukee a Play. However that is what we will do here tonight. There are 2 nice systems that are in play here that show this game to be a classic win and no cover for the Favorite in this game which is Toronto. First we want to play against home favorites of 10 or more that come in off a home favored win and cover at -5 or more vs a conference opponent vs an opponent that scored 90 or less in a road dog +10 or higher loss that also failed to cover. If the total is 180 or higher these favorites are 1-13 to the spread. We also note that road dogs of 10 or more that scored 90 or less as double digit road dog and had 15 or less turnovers are 11-1 ats. The Raptors are a perfect 9-0 ats since Christmas day but the line is inflated and they are just 1-5 to the spread as a home favorite of 10 or more. The Bucks are 3-0 ats as a road dog of 10 or more and have covered 6 straight here in Toronto. On Monday we have 2 Powerful NBA Totals plays from our Top ranked NBA Service, one has a 92% totals system and their are over 8 angles combined and 4 are undefeated. Last nights top play cashed with The Spurs. We also have a College Hoops Blowout side. Jump on and start the week big. For the NBA play take Milwaukee plays the points. GC
See spot. See spot bet: This week's best NHL spot bet opportunities
By SEAN MURPHY
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Covers Expert Sean Murphy points out the best spot bet opportunities on the NHL schedule this week:
Letdown spot
The Edmonton Oilers pulled off a shocking win over the Pittsburgh Penguins Friday night and then packed their bags for a trip to Chicago to face the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks two nights later.
This isn't a classic letdown spot, as the Oilers will have had a full day off to regroup, but I'm thinking we'll see a less-than-inspired effort from the young Oilers as they head to Dallas to counter the Stars Tuesday night. Road wins haven't come easy for the Oilers and I suspect they'll be in tough against a sneaky-good opponent in this spot.
Lookeahead spot
Calgary is reeling right now and things won't get any easier Monday night as the Flames face the surging Hurricanes in Carolina. A better opportunity for Calgary to snap its losing streak awaits Tuesday, when it makes a stop in Nashville to take on the struggling Predators.
A trip to Carolina doesn't serve as a strong motivational spot for Western Conference squads at the best of times. While the Flames should be getting up for every game out of sheer desperation, they might just be a no-show in this non-conference tilt Monday.
Schedule spot
This isn't going to be an easy week for the New Jersey Devils. After defeating the Panthers in Florida Saturday, they traveled to Toronto to face the Leafs in a quick turnaround Sunday. After that it's on to Montreal for a date with the Habs Tuesday.
That's where things get dicey. New Jersey will make the long trek to Colorado on only one day of rest (if you can call it that) before wrapping up their whirlwind road trip with a stop in Phoenix Saturday. Don't count on a peak performance from the Devils in the desert. For its part, Phoenix will have been home since Wednesday, before it opens a three-game homestand against Vancouver one night later.
By SEAN MURPHY
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Covers Expert Sean Murphy points out the best spot bet opportunities on the NHL schedule this week:
Letdown spot
The Edmonton Oilers pulled off a shocking win over the Pittsburgh Penguins Friday night and then packed their bags for a trip to Chicago to face the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks two nights later.
This isn't a classic letdown spot, as the Oilers will have had a full day off to regroup, but I'm thinking we'll see a less-than-inspired effort from the young Oilers as they head to Dallas to counter the Stars Tuesday night. Road wins haven't come easy for the Oilers and I suspect they'll be in tough against a sneaky-good opponent in this spot.
Lookeahead spot
Calgary is reeling right now and things won't get any easier Monday night as the Flames face the surging Hurricanes in Carolina. A better opportunity for Calgary to snap its losing streak awaits Tuesday, when it makes a stop in Nashville to take on the struggling Predators.
A trip to Carolina doesn't serve as a strong motivational spot for Western Conference squads at the best of times. While the Flames should be getting up for every game out of sheer desperation, they might just be a no-show in this non-conference tilt Monday.
Schedule spot
This isn't going to be an easy week for the New Jersey Devils. After defeating the Panthers in Florida Saturday, they traveled to Toronto to face the Leafs in a quick turnaround Sunday. After that it's on to Montreal for a date with the Habs Tuesday.
That's where things get dicey. New Jersey will make the long trek to Colorado on only one day of rest (if you can call it that) before wrapping up their whirlwind road trip with a stop in Phoenix Saturday. Don't count on a peak performance from the Devils in the desert. For its part, Phoenix will have been home since Wednesday, before it opens a three-game homestand against Vancouver one night later.
NCAAB
Monday, January 13
Duke lost its first two ACC road games- they beat Georgia Tech by 22 in only home ACC home game. Blue Devils are 14-2 in last 16 games with Virginia, winning last seven here, six by 14+ points. Cavaliers lost by 35 at Tennessee in its last non-league game, then won first three ACC games by 12-23-31 points, with wins at Florida State/NC State. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-4 vs spread.
West Virginia swept Texas by total of six points LY; Mountaineers lost tough 73-72 game to Oklahoma State in Big X opener Saturday- their three league games were decided by total of nine points. Longhorns split pair of 3-point league games at home; they lost by 13 at Oklahoma State in only Big X road tilt, Big X favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Texas does have road wins at Temple/North Carolina.
Cleveland State won 10 of last 13 games with Youngstown, going 3-1 in last four visits here, with wins by 22-10-20 points. Vikings allowed an average of 59.3 ppg in 2-1 Horizon start, winning last two games by 28-10 points. YSU is 6-1 at home but played first three (1-2) Horizon tilts on road- their only home loss was 88-86 to Austin Peay. Horizon home teams are 9-6 against the spread.
Northeastern is 4-12, losing 10 of last 12 games; they split first couple league games, with both going OT. Huskies are turning ball over 21.0% of time, making just 30.8% from arc. Charleston had 4-game win streak snapped at Hofstra Saturday, after they won CAA debut by 14 at home over JMU; Cougars are 3-2 overall on road, with wins at Davidson and Old Dominion. CAA home favoritea are 2-4 against spread.
Texas State is just 5-12, but they held UL-Monroe to nine points in the second half of 61-36 win Saturday, Bobcats' first road win in six away games- four of their five road losses are by 17+ points. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-10 vs spread this month. UL-Lafayette is 10-5, but only 3-3 vs teams outside top 200- they're turning ball over 20.1% of time. ULL is holding teams to 27.8% from arc (#11 in US).
Iowa State was 23-12 LY, but 0-3 vs Kansas, losing by 8-12-15 points; Cyclones lost first game Saturday, and PG Kane tweaked ankle- unsure if he is playing here. ISU lost 16 of last 17 games with Jayhawks, with four of their last five losses in Ames by 11+ points. Big X favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Kansas scored 88 ppg in winning its first two Big X games- they're 1-2 on road, winning by 7 at Oklahoma.
Syracuse allowed 47 ppg in winning first three ACC games by 5-20-12 points, holding North Carolina to 45 points Saturday; Orange are 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at St John's, 20 at Virginia Tech. Boston College lost seven of last nine games; their last two games were decided by total of five points. BC is 3-4 in games decided by 4 or less points or in OT. ACC home dogs are 4-4 vs spread, 3-1 if getting 4+ points.
Tennessee State won seven of last eight games with UT-Martin, winning last three visits here by 6-3-13 points. Tigers are 1-9 vs D-I teams, 0-9 on road; they're making 27.8% from arc. OVC home favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 2-3 if laying less than 5 points. Skyhawks are 3-14 against D-I teams, with best win over #297 Northern Kentucky- teams are making 59% of 2-point shots against, 3rd-worst mark in country.
Northern Arizona is 3-2 in last five games after starting 1-7 vs D-I foes; Lumberjacks are 2-1 in league, with only loss by hoop at Montana St. Southern Utah is 0-11 vs D-I teams, last in country in three statistical categories, bottom 10 in six- their Big Sky losses are by 4-36-28 points. Big Sky home teams are 8-5-1 vs spread if number is single digits, 3-1 if they're a home underdog.
Monday, January 13
Duke lost its first two ACC road games- they beat Georgia Tech by 22 in only home ACC home game. Blue Devils are 14-2 in last 16 games with Virginia, winning last seven here, six by 14+ points. Cavaliers lost by 35 at Tennessee in its last non-league game, then won first three ACC games by 12-23-31 points, with wins at Florida State/NC State. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-4 vs spread.
West Virginia swept Texas by total of six points LY; Mountaineers lost tough 73-72 game to Oklahoma State in Big X opener Saturday- their three league games were decided by total of nine points. Longhorns split pair of 3-point league games at home; they lost by 13 at Oklahoma State in only Big X road tilt, Big X favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Texas does have road wins at Temple/North Carolina.
Cleveland State won 10 of last 13 games with Youngstown, going 3-1 in last four visits here, with wins by 22-10-20 points. Vikings allowed an average of 59.3 ppg in 2-1 Horizon start, winning last two games by 28-10 points. YSU is 6-1 at home but played first three (1-2) Horizon tilts on road- their only home loss was 88-86 to Austin Peay. Horizon home teams are 9-6 against the spread.
Northeastern is 4-12, losing 10 of last 12 games; they split first couple league games, with both going OT. Huskies are turning ball over 21.0% of time, making just 30.8% from arc. Charleston had 4-game win streak snapped at Hofstra Saturday, after they won CAA debut by 14 at home over JMU; Cougars are 3-2 overall on road, with wins at Davidson and Old Dominion. CAA home favoritea are 2-4 against spread.
Texas State is just 5-12, but they held UL-Monroe to nine points in the second half of 61-36 win Saturday, Bobcats' first road win in six away games- four of their five road losses are by 17+ points. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-10 vs spread this month. UL-Lafayette is 10-5, but only 3-3 vs teams outside top 200- they're turning ball over 20.1% of time. ULL is holding teams to 27.8% from arc (#11 in US).
Iowa State was 23-12 LY, but 0-3 vs Kansas, losing by 8-12-15 points; Cyclones lost first game Saturday, and PG Kane tweaked ankle- unsure if he is playing here. ISU lost 16 of last 17 games with Jayhawks, with four of their last five losses in Ames by 11+ points. Big X favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Kansas scored 88 ppg in winning its first two Big X games- they're 1-2 on road, winning by 7 at Oklahoma.
Syracuse allowed 47 ppg in winning first three ACC games by 5-20-12 points, holding North Carolina to 45 points Saturday; Orange are 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at St John's, 20 at Virginia Tech. Boston College lost seven of last nine games; their last two games were decided by total of five points. BC is 3-4 in games decided by 4 or less points or in OT. ACC home dogs are 4-4 vs spread, 3-1 if getting 4+ points.
Tennessee State won seven of last eight games with UT-Martin, winning last three visits here by 6-3-13 points. Tigers are 1-9 vs D-I teams, 0-9 on road; they're making 27.8% from arc. OVC home favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 2-3 if laying less than 5 points. Skyhawks are 3-14 against D-I teams, with best win over #297 Northern Kentucky- teams are making 59% of 2-point shots against, 3rd-worst mark in country.
Northern Arizona is 3-2 in last five games after starting 1-7 vs D-I foes; Lumberjacks are 2-1 in league, with only loss by hoop at Montana St. Southern Utah is 0-11 vs D-I teams, last in country in three statistical categories, bottom 10 in six- their Big Sky losses are by 4-36-28 points. Big Sky home teams are 8-5-1 vs spread if number is single digits, 3-1 if they're a home underdog.
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/13/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 1/13/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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•Hot Teams
-- Toronto won seven of last nine games (9-0 vs. spread).
-- Rockets won three of last four games.
-- Knicks won their last four games, allowing 87.3 ppg (4-8 HF).
-- Chicago won/covered its last five games.
-- Spurs won seven of their last eight games.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games.
-- Nuggets won last five games, covered last four. Utah won three of its last four home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost their last five games (0-5 vs. spread).
-- Celtics lost last eight games, covered last three.
-- Suns lost three of their last four games (11-5 AU).
-- Wizards lost five of their last seven games (6-2 last eight AU).
-- Pelicans lost last five games, covered one of last seven.
-- Magic lost its last seven games (0-7 vs. spread).
•Totals
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Houston road games stayed under total; four of last five Boston games went over
-- Five of last seven Phoenix road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Washington road games went over total.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio road games went over total.
-- Nine of last ten Orlando road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Denver games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Raptors lost ten of their last eleven games with Milwaukee.
-- Celtics lost five of last seven games with Houston.
-- Suns are 3-5 in last five games vs. New York, 2-3 in last five here.
-- Bulls won 11 of last 15 games with Washington.
-- Pelicans lost eight of last nine games with San Antonio.
-- Magic lost last three games with Dallas, by 6-15-8 points.
-- Nuggets won three of last four games with Utah.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHICAGO is 12-32 ATS (-23.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 89.6, OPPONENT 87.7.
-- BOSTON is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 89.6, OPPONENT 85.8.
-- BOSTON is 28-12 (+14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.1, OPPONENT 47.9.
-- DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 45.4, OPPONENT 46.3.
-- LARRY DREW is 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) in road games after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was DREW 102.1, OPPONENT 99.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- ORLANDO is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 93.9, OPPONENT 101.8.
-- CHICAGO is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 89.6, OPPONENT 92.6.
-- PHOENIX is 18-6 (+11.4 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.3, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- PHOENIX is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 58.3, OPPONENT 52.7.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 93.3, OPPONENT 102.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(37-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (9-38 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 12.2
The average score in these games was: Team 98, Opponent 105.7 (Average point differential = -7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (40.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (103-64).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.6
The average score in these games was: Team 94.2, Opponent 93.9 (Total points scored = 188)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (55.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (47-19).
Betting News & Notes Week #12
Each and every week here at StatSystems Sports, Systems Analyst Larry Hertner looks back on the National Basketball Association betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule. Note: For the week of January 5th thru 11th.
Hottest ATS
•Toronto Raptors (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS)
The Raptors have been by far the best cover play since the end of the Christmas break, going a perfect 9-0 ATS as they continue to impress since trading Rudy Gay to Sacramento. After looking strong in narrow losses at Miami and Indiana - far and away the two strongest teams in the Eastern Conference - Toronto returned to its winning ways with runaway home victories over the Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets. Expect the good times to continue this week, with home games against Milwaukee and Minnesota and a road game versus Boston on the docket.
Coldest ATS
•Philadelphia 76ers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)
After putting together one of the unlikeliest four-game road winning streaks in the NBA this season - rattling off victories against the Lakers, Denver, Sacramento and Portland over a seven-day span - the 76ers crashed back to Earth last week. Despite getting points in all four games, Philadelphia fell victim to its sieve-like defense, losing all four contests by double digits while surrendering an average of 113.3 points per contest. The 76ers will look to bounce back this week, hosting the Charlotte Bobcats and Miami Heat before hitting the road to face the Chicago Bulls.
Best Over Play
•Detroit Pistons (2-3 SU, 4-1 O/U)
It was a busy week for the Pistons, who were on both ends of some of the more entertaining games of the week. After dropping three straight games to open the stretch - surrendering 112 points to both the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors - The Pistons averaged 112 points in consecutive victories over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns. Detroit will now enjoy a much-needed rest, with six days between its triumph over the Suns and the opener of back-to-back games against the Utah Jazz and the Washington Wizards.
Best Under Play
•New York Knicks (4-0 SU, 4-0 O/U)
A team boasting Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Andrea Bargnani will never be thought of as a defensive juggernaut - making last week's numbers positively boggling. New York played all four of its games under the total, with all but one of those games falling more than 10 points below. New York has struggled on offense all season, and enjoyed only a modest boost in that area last week; the big impact came on defense, where the Knicks held all four opponents below 93 points. New York has a four-game week ahead, with home games against Phoenix and the Clippers and road dates in Charlotte and Indiana.
•Surveying The Schedule
The Denver Nuggets have surged back above the .500 mark on the strength of a five-game winning streak that has renewed optimism in Colorado. Denver faces an interesting test over its next five games, with all five opponents having beaten the Nuggets in their previous meeting earlier in the season. That includes a relatively tame three-game schedule during Week #12, with road games against the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors preceding a home date with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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Monday's Match-ups
#701 MILWAUKEE @ #702 TORONTO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TSN Toronto, Line: Raptors -11, Total: 185.5) - It wasn't long ago that the Toronto Raptors were thought to be one of several teams in the mix for a top-3 pick in this year's NBA draft. One blockbuster trade later, Toronto has much loftier aspirations as it looks to continue its recent hot streak Monday night against the woeful Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors climbed above the .500 mark with a convincing 96-80 win over the Brooklyn Nets, while the Bucks sit last in the NBA and have dropped five straight.
Toronto's amazing turnaround has coincided with its notable swap with the Sacramento Kings, one that shipped Rudy Gay out West and brought four role players to Canada. That quartet - Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, Greivis Vasquez and John Salmons - has formed the core of a potent bench unit that has complemented the starting lineup nicely. Milwaukee dropped a 101-85 decision to Oklahoma City on Saturday and ranks second-last in scoring average.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (7-29 SU, 12-24-0 ATS): Frustration abounds in the Badger State, where the Bucks are headed for a plum spot in the lottery thanks to a roster that is lean on talent - particularly on the offensive end. Those struggles were on full display in the weekend loss to the Thunder, when Milwaukee managed just 10 first-quarter points as part of a 39.5-percent shooting performance and a 9-of-14 showing from the free-throw line. Center Larry Sanders was ejected after playing just seven minutes following an elbow to the head of Oklahoma City's Steven Adams.
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (18-17 SU, 21-14-0 ATS): DeMar DeRozan's profile has only grown with Gay's departure. The fifth-year shooting guard is enjoying the best season of his career, averaging 21.3 points - tied for 13th in the league entering Sunday - and even earning a shout-out from Houston Rockets superstar James Harden, who urged fans to vote DeRozan into the All-Star Game. Of equal importance is his improved all-around play; DeRozan is averaging 5.2 rebounds and five assists in January, well above his career marks of 3.6 and 1.9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 608 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the spread 365 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 839 times, while MILWAUKEE won 148 times. In 1000 simulated games, 545 games went over the total, while 455 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 562 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 438 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 514 games went over first half total, while 486 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Milwaukee's 45-23 record in the all-time series is its best against any opponent.
--MILWAUKEE is 36-24 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 43-21 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--30 of 60 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 31-30 versus the first half line when playing against TORONTO since 1996.
--34 of 60 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bucks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Bucks are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 Monday games.
--Raptors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games.
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#703 HOUSTON @ #704 BOSTON
(TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CSN Houston, CSN New England Boston - Line: Rockets -6, Total: 205.5) - The Boston Celtics return home after a winless five-game road trip and look to halt an eight-game skid when they host the Houston Rockets on Monday. Boston has won just one of its last 12 games and has faded toward the bottom of the Eastern Conference in Brad Stevens’ first year as coach. Houston has won three of its last four games after posting a 114-107 road win over the Washington Wizards on Saturday to improve to 9-9 away from home.
The Rockets reside in sixth place in the tough Western Conference and continue to display they will be a bona fide playoff threat. Center Dwight Howard has fit in nicely with star guard James Harden without any of the drama Howard experienced while playing with Kobe Bryant for one season with the Los Angeles Lakers. Harden is averaging 32.6 points over the last five games, including two outings of 38 points and another of 37.
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (24-14 SU, 19-17-2 ATS): Second-year forward Terrence Jones is emerging and providing a big boost in the frontcourt. Jones began receiving more playing time when Omer Asik fell out of favor and his development has led to four double-doubles over the past nine games. He had 19 points and a career-high 17 rebounds against Washington in his latest strong outing. Jones scored a career-best 24 points on 10-of-12 shooting and also grabbed nine rebounds in Houston’s win over Boston earlier this season.
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (13-25 SU, 19-18-1 ATS): Forward Jared Sullinger has shown signs of breaking out of a slump by averaging 17.5 points and 10.5 rebounds with back-to-back double-doubles over the past two games. Sullinger played a total of 45 minutes in a three-game span as his play declined before coming to life again in the last two games. Kris Humphries has been receiving more minutes due to Sullinger’s shaky play but that figures to change once Sullinger shows he’s fully back on his game. The second-year pro is averaging 13.1 points and 7.4 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Rockets have won five of the last seven meetings, including a convincing 109-85 victory over Nov. 19.... The Celtics are 3-13 against Western Conference foes.... Houston F Chandler Parsons (hamstring, knee) hopes to return after missing three straight games.... Six of Boston's last seven at TD Garden have been decided by four points or fewer, a stretch in which it's gone 3-4.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the spread 541 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 585 times, while BOSTON won 386 times. In 1000 simulated games, 659 games went under the total, while 341 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the first half line 532 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 436 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 618 games went under first half total, while 382 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Houston lost its last two trips to Boston under former Celtics star McHale. Lin had 11 points and five assists off the bench in a 109-85 win over Boston on Nov. 19.
--HOUSTON is 20-12 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 19-13 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BOSTON is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1996.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Rockets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Rockets are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Boston.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 Monday games.
--Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 games following a ATS win.
--Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
--Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
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#705 PHOENIX @ #706 NEW YORK
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Arizona Phoenix), MSG New York - Line: Knicks -3, Total: 198.5) - Things are finally going right for the New York Knicks - and they have to like their chances of keeping the good times going Monday as they host the banged-up Phoenix Suns. The Knicks have won four consecutive games, most recently a 102-92 triumph over the Philadelphia 76ers in which Amar'e Stoudemire showed his old form with 21 points. The Suns have dropped back-to-back contests and will have to deal with the extended absence of guard Eric Bledsoe.
An early candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, Bledsoe had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and is out indefinitely; he hopes to return at some point this season. His loss is a crippling one for a Suns team that had emerged as one of the most pleasant surprises in the league through the opening third of the campaign. They'll face a major test from New York, which is coming alive on offense while holding each of its last four opponents to 92 or fewer points.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (21-15 SU, 24-11-1 ATS): The impact Bledsoe has had in his first season in Phoenix is best explained in the team's record with him in the lineup (16-8) versus its mark without him (5-7). "Guys are going to have to step it up," Suns coach Jeff Hornacek told the Arizona Republic. "It's unfortunate that he's going to miss some games but I think the more they'll get used to the rotation, hopefully that'll make us better." Gerald Green, who has moved into the starting role in Bledsoe's absence, had 15 points and seven rebounds in Saturday's 110-108 loss to Detroit.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (14-22 SU, 16-20-0 ATS): So much for the controversy surrounding guard J.R. Smith affecting the performance of the team. The Knicks haven't looked better all season, boasting a road win over the Dallas Mavericks and a stunning triumph over the defending-champion Miami Heat during its winning streak. Smith's future remains in doubt, however; the team is still irate over his shoelace-tying stunt and is reportedly looking to trade the veteran bench scorer, who averages 11.4 points on 35.4-percent shooting in 30 games.
•PREGAME NOTES: New York won the last two meetings, both in December 2012.... Knicks F Carmelo Anthony averages 23.8 points in 28 career games versus Phoenix.... The Suns are 5-4 against the Eastern Conference.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the spread 544 times, while NEW YORK covered the spread 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK won the game straight up 502 times, while PHOENIX won 469 times. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went over the total, while 446 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the first half line 533 times, while NEW YORK covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 496 games went over first half total, while 476 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 18-14 against the spread versus PHOENIX since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 16-16 straight up against PHOENIX since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against NEW YORK since 1996.
--15 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Suns are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in New York.
--Underdog is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0-1 in Suns last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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#707 SAN ANTONIO @ #708 NEW ORLEANS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, FSN Southwest San Antonio, FSN New Orleans - Line: Spurs -5.5, Total: 201) - Injuries were already handcuffing the New Orleans Pelicans before the referees added to their misery. The Pelicans will attempt to snap a five-game slide and keep the game from coming down to a questionable call when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. The NBA announced on Sunday that a foul should have been called on Austin Rivers’ attempt at a tying 3-pointer as time expired at Dallas on Saturday, when New Orleans suffered a 110-107 setback.
The Pelicans are giving Rivers more responsibility with Jrue Holiday (stress fracture) and Ryan Anderson (herniated disc) out of the lineup indefinitely. The second-year guard is averaging 10.5 points in the last two games but did not get a chance for the tying free throws on Saturday. San Antonio owns the best record in the Western Conference and is riding a four-game winning streak after cruising past the Minnesota Timberwolves 104-86 on Sunday.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (29-8 SU, 20-17-0 ATS): Manu Ginobili (hamstring) has missed the last two games and Tiago Splitter (shoulder) sat out three straight but San Antonio has shown no signs of a drop off while winning the last two by an average of 20 points. The Spurs were a model of efficiency on both ends against the Timberwolves, shooting 56.8 percent while holding Minnesota to 35.5 percent from the field and running away in the second half. Patty Mills, Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli will continue to pick up the slack if Ginobili can’t go on Monday.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (15-21 SU, 14-20-2 ATS): New Orleans was on the verge of crossing the .500 mark and making a push for the top eight in the West with Anderson and Holiday playing alongside a healthy Anthony Davis but are now 0-5 since Anderson’s injury, and lost Holiday last week. The Pelicans are getting plenty from Davis, who has gone over 20 points in four straight games, and Eric Gordon - 21.2 points in the last five - but is searching for consistent production from the rest of the lineup. Rivers is seeing his playing time increase behind Brian Roberts, who is 6-for-21 from the field in two starts in place of Holiday.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Spurs have taken eight of the last nine in the series, with the lone loss coming in their final trip to New Orleans last season, 95-88 on Jan. 7, 2013.... San Antonio F Kawhi Leonard is shooting 67.6 percent in the last four games.... Davis struggled to 10 points and six rebounds in the 112-93 loss at San Antonio on Nov. 25.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 525 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 605 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 366 times. In 1000 simulated games, 701 games went over the total, while 284 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 509 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 635 games went over first half total, while 365 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
San Antonio has won 15 of the past 18 meetings with the Pelicans (15-21). However, the Spurs' only defeat in the last nine matchups was a 95-88 loss in the most recent one in New Orleans on Jan. 7, 2013.
--SAN ANTONIO is 30-27 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 41-17 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--30 of 54 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 36-21 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--29 of 54 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Monday games.
--Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 Monday games.
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#709 WASHINGTON @ #710 CHICAGO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN Washington, CSN Chicago, NBATV - Line: Bulls -4, Total: 182.5) - The Chicago Bulls will be looking for their season-high sixth straight win when the Washington Wizards pay a visit on Monday. Chicago has rolled off five straight, with the last three coming under some unusual circumstances, after the trade of its leading scorer, Luol Deng, to Cleveland. "The trade definitely hurt," center Joakim Noah told the Chicago Tribune, "but we have to move on. I feel confident in this team."
Washington has lost two in a row and five of its last seven but might be fortunate to be away from home for the moment, having won six of its last eight road games. The Wizards fell behind by as many as 25 in the second half at home against Houston on Saturday before rally to take a fourth quarter lead that ultimately fell short, leaving coach Randy Wittman seething. "We shortcut everything," he told the Washington Post. "When you do that, you get down (by) 25."
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (16-19 SU, 19-16-0 ATS): It wasn't all negative against the Rockets, as Washington did manage to bounce back from that 25-point deficit before yielding a late lead. But as Wittman noted, a partial effort won't get you far in the NBA. "You can't (play) 17 minutes of an NBA game against a good team," he said. "That's what we did." Center Kevin Seraphin scored a season-high 18 points against Houston on 8-of-13 shooting, drawing praise from his coach. "Kevin came in and gave us a big lift," Wittman said. "There's no question he played well."
•ABOUT THE BULLS (17-18 SU, 16-19-0 ATS): Noah has stepped up his game in the absence of Deng, averaging 13.7 points and 13.3 rebounds in the three games since the trade, and expressed his commitment to the current Bulls bunch while challenging his teammates to do the same. "I put everything I have into this," Noah said. "Everybody has a job to do." Without Deng and guard Derrick Rose, who is lost for the season after knee surgery, Chicago's leading active scorer is Carlos Boozer at 14.7 points to go with 8.8 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: Washington has won three of the last five meetings with Chicago after a string of seven straight wins for the Bulls in the series.... Wizards PG John Wall averages 8.6 assists - tops in the Eastern Conference.... Chicago SF Mike Dunleavy has been inserted into Deng's vacated spot in the starting lineup and averages 3.9 more points as a starter than as a reserve on the season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 554 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 420 times. *EDGE against the spread =WASHINGTON. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 532 times, while WASHINGTON won 432 times. In 1000 simulated games, 562 games went over the total, while 438 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 539 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 424 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 512 games went over first half total, while 456 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
These teams split four meetings last season, with the home team winning each. The Wizards have dropped eight of their last nine in Chicago.
--WASHINGTON is 38-32 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 39-31 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--44 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 36-31 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--38 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Wizards are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Wizards are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
--Under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 5-1 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#711 ORLANDO @ #712 DALLAS
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, FSN Florida Orlando, FSN Southwest Dallas - Line: Mavericks -11.5, Total: 199.5) - The Dallas Mavericks survived a four-game, five-day stretch with three victories and try to avoid a letdown when the injury-plagued Orlando Magic visit on Monday. Veteran Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 40 as the Mavericks edged New Orleans on Saturday for their sixth win in nine games and stand tied for seventh in the Western Conference. The Magic have lost seven straight and end a five-game trip with leading scorer Arron Afflalo, among other players, who are either out or questionable.
Dallas will likely be without leading rebounder Shawn Marion for the fourth straight game due to a shoulder injury, but boasts five other players scoring in double figures. The Mavericks rank 28th in the league in rebounding and Orlando has struggled on the boards without 7-0 center Nikola Vucevic, who is out with a concussion. The Magic lost their last five games by an average of 19.6 points, including a 120-94 defeat at Denver on Saturday.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (10-27 SU, 15-22-0 ATS): Afflalo, averaging 20.8 points, missed the Denver game with a strained right foot and veteran guard Jameer Nelson left in the third quarter with a sprained right index finger. Maurice Harkless, who started in place of Afflalo, was also limited to 17 minutes by sore knee and it is uncertain whether any of them can play against Dallas. On the bright side, rookie Victor Oladipo is averaging 16 points over the last five games and Tobias Harris scored a season-high 22 on Sunday.
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (22-16 SU, 20-18-0 ATS): Nowitzki rebounded from his second single-digit scoring effort of the month with 64 points combined over the last two games and leads the team at 21.3 per contest. Monta Ellis gives Dallas one of the league’s best 1-2 scoring punches, averaging 20.1 points and a team-best 5.9 assists, while Jose Calderon adds 11.9 points and 4.8 assists. Veteran guard Vince Carter, who played 97 games over parts of two seasons with Orlando, is averaging 14 points in his last five games and 11.5 overall.
•PREGAME NOTES: Dallas C DeJuan Blair had a season-high 18 points in the 108-100 victory at Orlando on Nov. 16 -- the Mavericks’ fourth straight win over the Magic.... The Magic are averaging 86.9 points during their seven-game losing streak and stand 24th in the league at 95.4 for the season.... Mavericks rookie G Shane Larkin, averaging 3.2 points, left the last game with an ankle injury and his status is uncertain.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 504 times, while ORLANDO covered the spread 496 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 769 times, while ORLANDO won 214 times. In 1000 simulated games, 567 games went under the total, while 433 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 526 times, while DALLAS covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 537 games went under first half total, while 463 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Mavericks won 108-100 at Orlando on Nov. 16 for their fourth straight victory in the series and 11th in 14 meetings. The teams combined to shoot 51.9 percent but Dallas scored 22 points off 17 Magic turnovers while only committing eight.
--DALLAS is 16-16 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--DALLAS is 21-12 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ORLANDO is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Magic are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Magic are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas.
--Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
--Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in Dallas.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-0 in Mavericks last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#713 DENVER @ #714 UTAH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Altitude Denver, ROOT Utah - Line: Nuggets -4, Total: 203.5) - Utah’s chances of ending Denver’s five-game winning streak will increase if Gordon Hayward is on the court when the Jazz host the Nuggets on Monday. Hayward is a game-time decision with a hip flexor injury and is averaging 26 points and eight rebounds in two outings against Denver this season while putting up an average of 27 over his last three games. The Nuggets have been on a roll since coach Brian Shaw held individual meetings with each player after a clash with veteran Andre Miller.
Denver is averaging 119.6 points during its winning streak, and the last four games have been won by an average of 23 points. Miller was insubordinate towards Shaw and the franchise is attempting to move him, but the disruption led to the first-year head coach meeting with the players and then opting to heed their advice and move to a faster-paced offensive tempo. Hayward hasn’t played since scoring a career-best 37 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder last Tuesday and the Jazz lost at home to Cleveland on Friday when he was unavailable.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (19-17 SU, 17-19-0 ATS): Guard Randy Foye has been playing superbly during the winning streak, averaging 18.4 points to raise his season mark to 10.2. Foye is 20-of-37 from 3-point range during the hot stretch, knocking down seven against Boston on Tuesday and six against Oklahoma City two nights later. Last season, Foye played for the Jazz and set a franchise record with a career-best 178 3-pointers, but he has been bottled up in two games against Utah this season. Foye has scored just seven total points on 3-of-13 shooting in the two meetings.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (12-26 SU, 16-20-2 ATS): Alec Burks will again be in the starting lineup if Hayward can’t go and the third-year guard scored 16 points in 33 minutes in the loss to the Cavaliers. Burks’ production is up-and-down but a starting opportunity typically assures him 30-plus minutes and gives him more time to find a rhythm. He has been a valuable offensive weapon off the bench for Utah and has scored 20 or more points four times while averaging a career-best 12.2 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: The teams split this season’s first two meetings.... Denver F Wilson Chandler (hip) could miss his third straight game.... Jazz C Enes Kanter has recorded double-doubles in three of the past six games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the spread 549 times, while UTAH covered the spread 420 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In 1000 simulated games, DENVER won the game straight up 649 times, while UTAH won 330 times. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went under the total, while 499 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the first half line 523 times, while UTAH covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 519 games went under first half total, while 481 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Gordon Hayward had 30 points and a career-best 13 rebounds in a 103-93 road win over Denver on Dec. 13. He scored a team-best 22 when the Nuggets visited Salt Lake City on Nov. 11, but Utah suffered a 100-81 loss.
--DENVER is 37-34 against the spread versus UTAH since 1996.
--UTAH is 47-27 straight up against DENVER since 1996.
--40 of 73 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--UTAH is 38-32 versus the first half line when playing against DENVER since 1996.
--41 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Utah.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Jazz are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Over is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Monday, 1/13/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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•Hot Teams
-- Toronto won seven of last nine games (9-0 vs. spread).
-- Rockets won three of last four games.
-- Knicks won their last four games, allowing 87.3 ppg (4-8 HF).
-- Chicago won/covered its last five games.
-- Spurs won seven of their last eight games.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games.
-- Nuggets won last five games, covered last four. Utah won three of its last four home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost their last five games (0-5 vs. spread).
-- Celtics lost last eight games, covered last three.
-- Suns lost three of their last four games (11-5 AU).
-- Wizards lost five of their last seven games (6-2 last eight AU).
-- Pelicans lost last five games, covered one of last seven.
-- Magic lost its last seven games (0-7 vs. spread).
•Totals
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Houston road games stayed under total; four of last five Boston games went over
-- Five of last seven Phoenix road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Washington road games went over total.
-- Six of last eight San Antonio road games went over total.
-- Nine of last ten Orlando road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Denver games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Raptors lost ten of their last eleven games with Milwaukee.
-- Celtics lost five of last seven games with Houston.
-- Suns are 3-5 in last five games vs. New York, 2-3 in last five here.
-- Bulls won 11 of last 15 games with Washington.
-- Pelicans lost eight of last nine games with San Antonio.
-- Magic lost last three games with Dallas, by 6-15-8 points.
-- Nuggets won three of last four games with Utah.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHICAGO is 12-32 ATS (-23.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 89.6, OPPONENT 87.7.
-- BOSTON is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 89.6, OPPONENT 85.8.
-- BOSTON is 28-12 (+14.8 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.1, OPPONENT 47.9.
-- DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 45.4, OPPONENT 46.3.
-- LARRY DREW is 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) in road games after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was DREW 102.1, OPPONENT 99.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- ORLANDO is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 93.9, OPPONENT 101.8.
-- CHICAGO is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 89.6, OPPONENT 92.6.
-- PHOENIX is 18-6 (+11.4 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.3, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- PHOENIX is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 58.3, OPPONENT 52.7.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 93.3, OPPONENT 102.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(37-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (9-38 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 12.2
The average score in these games was: Team 98, Opponent 105.7 (Average point differential = -7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (40.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (103-64).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.6
The average score in these games was: Team 94.2, Opponent 93.9 (Total points scored = 188)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (55.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (47-19).
Betting News & Notes Week #12
Each and every week here at StatSystems Sports, Systems Analyst Larry Hertner looks back on the National Basketball Association betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule. Note: For the week of January 5th thru 11th.
Hottest ATS
•Toronto Raptors (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS)
The Raptors have been by far the best cover play since the end of the Christmas break, going a perfect 9-0 ATS as they continue to impress since trading Rudy Gay to Sacramento. After looking strong in narrow losses at Miami and Indiana - far and away the two strongest teams in the Eastern Conference - Toronto returned to its winning ways with runaway home victories over the Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets. Expect the good times to continue this week, with home games against Milwaukee and Minnesota and a road game versus Boston on the docket.
Coldest ATS
•Philadelphia 76ers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)
After putting together one of the unlikeliest four-game road winning streaks in the NBA this season - rattling off victories against the Lakers, Denver, Sacramento and Portland over a seven-day span - the 76ers crashed back to Earth last week. Despite getting points in all four games, Philadelphia fell victim to its sieve-like defense, losing all four contests by double digits while surrendering an average of 113.3 points per contest. The 76ers will look to bounce back this week, hosting the Charlotte Bobcats and Miami Heat before hitting the road to face the Chicago Bulls.
Best Over Play
•Detroit Pistons (2-3 SU, 4-1 O/U)
It was a busy week for the Pistons, who were on both ends of some of the more entertaining games of the week. After dropping three straight games to open the stretch - surrendering 112 points to both the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors - The Pistons averaged 112 points in consecutive victories over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns. Detroit will now enjoy a much-needed rest, with six days between its triumph over the Suns and the opener of back-to-back games against the Utah Jazz and the Washington Wizards.
Best Under Play
•New York Knicks (4-0 SU, 4-0 O/U)
A team boasting Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith and Andrea Bargnani will never be thought of as a defensive juggernaut - making last week's numbers positively boggling. New York played all four of its games under the total, with all but one of those games falling more than 10 points below. New York has struggled on offense all season, and enjoyed only a modest boost in that area last week; the big impact came on defense, where the Knicks held all four opponents below 93 points. New York has a four-game week ahead, with home games against Phoenix and the Clippers and road dates in Charlotte and Indiana.
•Surveying The Schedule
The Denver Nuggets have surged back above the .500 mark on the strength of a five-game winning streak that has renewed optimism in Colorado. Denver faces an interesting test over its next five games, with all five opponents having beaten the Nuggets in their previous meeting earlier in the season. That includes a relatively tame three-game schedule during Week #12, with road games against the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors preceding a home date with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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Monday's Match-ups
#701 MILWAUKEE @ #702 TORONTO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TSN Toronto, Line: Raptors -11, Total: 185.5) - It wasn't long ago that the Toronto Raptors were thought to be one of several teams in the mix for a top-3 pick in this year's NBA draft. One blockbuster trade later, Toronto has much loftier aspirations as it looks to continue its recent hot streak Monday night against the woeful Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors climbed above the .500 mark with a convincing 96-80 win over the Brooklyn Nets, while the Bucks sit last in the NBA and have dropped five straight.
Toronto's amazing turnaround has coincided with its notable swap with the Sacramento Kings, one that shipped Rudy Gay out West and brought four role players to Canada. That quartet - Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, Greivis Vasquez and John Salmons - has formed the core of a potent bench unit that has complemented the starting lineup nicely. Milwaukee dropped a 101-85 decision to Oklahoma City on Saturday and ranks second-last in scoring average.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (7-29 SU, 12-24-0 ATS): Frustration abounds in the Badger State, where the Bucks are headed for a plum spot in the lottery thanks to a roster that is lean on talent - particularly on the offensive end. Those struggles were on full display in the weekend loss to the Thunder, when Milwaukee managed just 10 first-quarter points as part of a 39.5-percent shooting performance and a 9-of-14 showing from the free-throw line. Center Larry Sanders was ejected after playing just seven minutes following an elbow to the head of Oklahoma City's Steven Adams.
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (18-17 SU, 21-14-0 ATS): DeMar DeRozan's profile has only grown with Gay's departure. The fifth-year shooting guard is enjoying the best season of his career, averaging 21.3 points - tied for 13th in the league entering Sunday - and even earning a shout-out from Houston Rockets superstar James Harden, who urged fans to vote DeRozan into the All-Star Game. Of equal importance is his improved all-around play; DeRozan is averaging 5.2 rebounds and five assists in January, well above his career marks of 3.6 and 1.9.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 608 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the spread 365 times. *EDGE against the spread =TORONTO. In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO won the game straight up 839 times, while MILWAUKEE won 148 times. In 1000 simulated games, 545 games went over the total, while 455 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 562 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 438 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 514 games went over first half total, while 486 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Milwaukee's 45-23 record in the all-time series is its best against any opponent.
--MILWAUKEE is 36-24 against the spread versus TORONTO since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 43-21 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--30 of 60 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MILWAUKEE is 31-30 versus the first half line when playing against TORONTO since 1996.
--34 of 60 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bucks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
--Bucks are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Favorite is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 Monday games.
--Raptors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
--Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games.
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#703 HOUSTON @ #704 BOSTON
(TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, CSN Houston, CSN New England Boston - Line: Rockets -6, Total: 205.5) - The Boston Celtics return home after a winless five-game road trip and look to halt an eight-game skid when they host the Houston Rockets on Monday. Boston has won just one of its last 12 games and has faded toward the bottom of the Eastern Conference in Brad Stevens’ first year as coach. Houston has won three of its last four games after posting a 114-107 road win over the Washington Wizards on Saturday to improve to 9-9 away from home.
The Rockets reside in sixth place in the tough Western Conference and continue to display they will be a bona fide playoff threat. Center Dwight Howard has fit in nicely with star guard James Harden without any of the drama Howard experienced while playing with Kobe Bryant for one season with the Los Angeles Lakers. Harden is averaging 32.6 points over the last five games, including two outings of 38 points and another of 37.
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (24-14 SU, 19-17-2 ATS): Second-year forward Terrence Jones is emerging and providing a big boost in the frontcourt. Jones began receiving more playing time when Omer Asik fell out of favor and his development has led to four double-doubles over the past nine games. He had 19 points and a career-high 17 rebounds against Washington in his latest strong outing. Jones scored a career-best 24 points on 10-of-12 shooting and also grabbed nine rebounds in Houston’s win over Boston earlier this season.
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (13-25 SU, 19-18-1 ATS): Forward Jared Sullinger has shown signs of breaking out of a slump by averaging 17.5 points and 10.5 rebounds with back-to-back double-doubles over the past two games. Sullinger played a total of 45 minutes in a three-game span as his play declined before coming to life again in the last two games. Kris Humphries has been receiving more minutes due to Sullinger’s shaky play but that figures to change once Sullinger shows he’s fully back on his game. The second-year pro is averaging 13.1 points and 7.4 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Rockets have won five of the last seven meetings, including a convincing 109-85 victory over Nov. 19.... The Celtics are 3-13 against Western Conference foes.... Houston F Chandler Parsons (hamstring, knee) hopes to return after missing three straight games.... Six of Boston's last seven at TD Garden have been decided by four points or fewer, a stretch in which it's gone 3-4.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the spread 541 times, while HOUSTON covered the spread 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 585 times, while BOSTON won 386 times. In 1000 simulated games, 659 games went under the total, while 341 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the first half line 532 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 436 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 618 games went under first half total, while 382 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Houston lost its last two trips to Boston under former Celtics star McHale. Lin had 11 points and five assists off the bench in a 109-85 win over Boston on Nov. 19.
--HOUSTON is 20-12 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 19-13 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BOSTON is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against HOUSTON since 1996.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Rockets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Rockets are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Boston.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 Monday games.
--Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 games following a ATS win.
--Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
--Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
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#705 PHOENIX @ #706 NEW YORK
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Arizona Phoenix), MSG New York - Line: Knicks -3, Total: 198.5) - Things are finally going right for the New York Knicks - and they have to like their chances of keeping the good times going Monday as they host the banged-up Phoenix Suns. The Knicks have won four consecutive games, most recently a 102-92 triumph over the Philadelphia 76ers in which Amar'e Stoudemire showed his old form with 21 points. The Suns have dropped back-to-back contests and will have to deal with the extended absence of guard Eric Bledsoe.
An early candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, Bledsoe had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee and is out indefinitely; he hopes to return at some point this season. His loss is a crippling one for a Suns team that had emerged as one of the most pleasant surprises in the league through the opening third of the campaign. They'll face a major test from New York, which is coming alive on offense while holding each of its last four opponents to 92 or fewer points.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (21-15 SU, 24-11-1 ATS): The impact Bledsoe has had in his first season in Phoenix is best explained in the team's record with him in the lineup (16-8) versus its mark without him (5-7). "Guys are going to have to step it up," Suns coach Jeff Hornacek told the Arizona Republic. "It's unfortunate that he's going to miss some games but I think the more they'll get used to the rotation, hopefully that'll make us better." Gerald Green, who has moved into the starting role in Bledsoe's absence, had 15 points and seven rebounds in Saturday's 110-108 loss to Detroit.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (14-22 SU, 16-20-0 ATS): So much for the controversy surrounding guard J.R. Smith affecting the performance of the team. The Knicks haven't looked better all season, boasting a road win over the Dallas Mavericks and a stunning triumph over the defending-champion Miami Heat during its winning streak. Smith's future remains in doubt, however; the team is still irate over his shoelace-tying stunt and is reportedly looking to trade the veteran bench scorer, who averages 11.4 points on 35.4-percent shooting in 30 games.
•PREGAME NOTES: New York won the last two meetings, both in December 2012.... Knicks F Carmelo Anthony averages 23.8 points in 28 career games versus Phoenix.... The Suns are 5-4 against the Eastern Conference.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the spread 544 times, while NEW YORK covered the spread 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK won the game straight up 502 times, while PHOENIX won 469 times. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went over the total, while 446 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the first half line 533 times, while NEW YORK covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 496 games went over first half total, while 476 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 18-14 against the spread versus PHOENIX since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 16-16 straight up against PHOENIX since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against NEW YORK since 1996.
--15 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Suns are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in New York.
--Underdog is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0-1 in Suns last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Over is 5-0 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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#707 SAN ANTONIO @ #708 NEW ORLEANS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, FSN Southwest San Antonio, FSN New Orleans - Line: Spurs -5.5, Total: 201) - Injuries were already handcuffing the New Orleans Pelicans before the referees added to their misery. The Pelicans will attempt to snap a five-game slide and keep the game from coming down to a questionable call when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. The NBA announced on Sunday that a foul should have been called on Austin Rivers’ attempt at a tying 3-pointer as time expired at Dallas on Saturday, when New Orleans suffered a 110-107 setback.
The Pelicans are giving Rivers more responsibility with Jrue Holiday (stress fracture) and Ryan Anderson (herniated disc) out of the lineup indefinitely. The second-year guard is averaging 10.5 points in the last two games but did not get a chance for the tying free throws on Saturday. San Antonio owns the best record in the Western Conference and is riding a four-game winning streak after cruising past the Minnesota Timberwolves 104-86 on Sunday.
•ABOUT THE SPURS (29-8 SU, 20-17-0 ATS): Manu Ginobili (hamstring) has missed the last two games and Tiago Splitter (shoulder) sat out three straight but San Antonio has shown no signs of a drop off while winning the last two by an average of 20 points. The Spurs were a model of efficiency on both ends against the Timberwolves, shooting 56.8 percent while holding Minnesota to 35.5 percent from the field and running away in the second half. Patty Mills, Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli will continue to pick up the slack if Ginobili can’t go on Monday.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (15-21 SU, 14-20-2 ATS): New Orleans was on the verge of crossing the .500 mark and making a push for the top eight in the West with Anderson and Holiday playing alongside a healthy Anthony Davis but are now 0-5 since Anderson’s injury, and lost Holiday last week. The Pelicans are getting plenty from Davis, who has gone over 20 points in four straight games, and Eric Gordon - 21.2 points in the last five - but is searching for consistent production from the rest of the lineup. Rivers is seeing his playing time increase behind Brian Roberts, who is 6-for-21 from the field in two starts in place of Holiday.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Spurs have taken eight of the last nine in the series, with the lone loss coming in their final trip to New Orleans last season, 95-88 on Jan. 7, 2013.... San Antonio F Kawhi Leonard is shooting 67.6 percent in the last four games.... Davis struggled to 10 points and six rebounds in the 112-93 loss at San Antonio on Nov. 25.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 525 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 605 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 366 times. In 1000 simulated games, 701 games went over the total, while 284 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 509 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 635 games went over first half total, while 365 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
San Antonio has won 15 of the past 18 meetings with the Pelicans (15-21). However, the Spurs' only defeat in the last nine matchups was a 95-88 loss in the most recent one in New Orleans on Jan. 7, 2013.
--SAN ANTONIO is 30-27 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 41-17 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--30 of 54 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 36-21 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--29 of 54 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Monday games.
--Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 Monday games.
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#709 WASHINGTON @ #710 CHICAGO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN Washington, CSN Chicago, NBATV - Line: Bulls -4, Total: 182.5) - The Chicago Bulls will be looking for their season-high sixth straight win when the Washington Wizards pay a visit on Monday. Chicago has rolled off five straight, with the last three coming under some unusual circumstances, after the trade of its leading scorer, Luol Deng, to Cleveland. "The trade definitely hurt," center Joakim Noah told the Chicago Tribune, "but we have to move on. I feel confident in this team."
Washington has lost two in a row and five of its last seven but might be fortunate to be away from home for the moment, having won six of its last eight road games. The Wizards fell behind by as many as 25 in the second half at home against Houston on Saturday before rally to take a fourth quarter lead that ultimately fell short, leaving coach Randy Wittman seething. "We shortcut everything," he told the Washington Post. "When you do that, you get down (by) 25."
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (16-19 SU, 19-16-0 ATS): It wasn't all negative against the Rockets, as Washington did manage to bounce back from that 25-point deficit before yielding a late lead. But as Wittman noted, a partial effort won't get you far in the NBA. "You can't (play) 17 minutes of an NBA game against a good team," he said. "That's what we did." Center Kevin Seraphin scored a season-high 18 points against Houston on 8-of-13 shooting, drawing praise from his coach. "Kevin came in and gave us a big lift," Wittman said. "There's no question he played well."
•ABOUT THE BULLS (17-18 SU, 16-19-0 ATS): Noah has stepped up his game in the absence of Deng, averaging 13.7 points and 13.3 rebounds in the three games since the trade, and expressed his commitment to the current Bulls bunch while challenging his teammates to do the same. "I put everything I have into this," Noah said. "Everybody has a job to do." Without Deng and guard Derrick Rose, who is lost for the season after knee surgery, Chicago's leading active scorer is Carlos Boozer at 14.7 points to go with 8.8 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: Washington has won three of the last five meetings with Chicago after a string of seven straight wins for the Bulls in the series.... Wizards PG John Wall averages 8.6 assists - tops in the Eastern Conference.... Chicago SF Mike Dunleavy has been inserted into Deng's vacated spot in the starting lineup and averages 3.9 more points as a starter than as a reserve on the season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 554 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 420 times. *EDGE against the spread =WASHINGTON. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 532 times, while WASHINGTON won 432 times. In 1000 simulated games, 562 games went over the total, while 438 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 539 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 424 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 512 games went over first half total, while 456 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
These teams split four meetings last season, with the home team winning each. The Wizards have dropped eight of their last nine in Chicago.
--WASHINGTON is 38-32 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 39-31 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--44 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 36-31 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--38 of 70 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Wizards are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Wizards are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
--Under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Wizards are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 5-1 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#711 ORLANDO @ #712 DALLAS
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, FSN Florida Orlando, FSN Southwest Dallas - Line: Mavericks -11.5, Total: 199.5) - The Dallas Mavericks survived a four-game, five-day stretch with three victories and try to avoid a letdown when the injury-plagued Orlando Magic visit on Monday. Veteran Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 40 as the Mavericks edged New Orleans on Saturday for their sixth win in nine games and stand tied for seventh in the Western Conference. The Magic have lost seven straight and end a five-game trip with leading scorer Arron Afflalo, among other players, who are either out or questionable.
Dallas will likely be without leading rebounder Shawn Marion for the fourth straight game due to a shoulder injury, but boasts five other players scoring in double figures. The Mavericks rank 28th in the league in rebounding and Orlando has struggled on the boards without 7-0 center Nikola Vucevic, who is out with a concussion. The Magic lost their last five games by an average of 19.6 points, including a 120-94 defeat at Denver on Saturday.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (10-27 SU, 15-22-0 ATS): Afflalo, averaging 20.8 points, missed the Denver game with a strained right foot and veteran guard Jameer Nelson left in the third quarter with a sprained right index finger. Maurice Harkless, who started in place of Afflalo, was also limited to 17 minutes by sore knee and it is uncertain whether any of them can play against Dallas. On the bright side, rookie Victor Oladipo is averaging 16 points over the last five games and Tobias Harris scored a season-high 22 on Sunday.
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (22-16 SU, 20-18-0 ATS): Nowitzki rebounded from his second single-digit scoring effort of the month with 64 points combined over the last two games and leads the team at 21.3 per contest. Monta Ellis gives Dallas one of the league’s best 1-2 scoring punches, averaging 20.1 points and a team-best 5.9 assists, while Jose Calderon adds 11.9 points and 4.8 assists. Veteran guard Vince Carter, who played 97 games over parts of two seasons with Orlando, is averaging 14 points in his last five games and 11.5 overall.
•PREGAME NOTES: Dallas C DeJuan Blair had a season-high 18 points in the 108-100 victory at Orlando on Nov. 16 -- the Mavericks’ fourth straight win over the Magic.... The Magic are averaging 86.9 points during their seven-game losing streak and stand 24th in the league at 95.4 for the season.... Mavericks rookie G Shane Larkin, averaging 3.2 points, left the last game with an ankle injury and his status is uncertain.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 504 times, while ORLANDO covered the spread 496 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 769 times, while ORLANDO won 214 times. In 1000 simulated games, 567 games went under the total, while 433 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 526 times, while DALLAS covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 537 games went under first half total, while 463 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Mavericks won 108-100 at Orlando on Nov. 16 for their fourth straight victory in the series and 11th in 14 meetings. The teams combined to shoot 51.9 percent but Dallas scored 22 points off 17 Magic turnovers while only committing eight.
--DALLAS is 16-16 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--DALLAS is 21-12 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ORLANDO is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Magic are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Magic are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas.
--Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
--Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in Dallas.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-0 in Mavericks last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#713 DENVER @ #714 UTAH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Altitude Denver, ROOT Utah - Line: Nuggets -4, Total: 203.5) - Utah’s chances of ending Denver’s five-game winning streak will increase if Gordon Hayward is on the court when the Jazz host the Nuggets on Monday. Hayward is a game-time decision with a hip flexor injury and is averaging 26 points and eight rebounds in two outings against Denver this season while putting up an average of 27 over his last three games. The Nuggets have been on a roll since coach Brian Shaw held individual meetings with each player after a clash with veteran Andre Miller.
Denver is averaging 119.6 points during its winning streak, and the last four games have been won by an average of 23 points. Miller was insubordinate towards Shaw and the franchise is attempting to move him, but the disruption led to the first-year head coach meeting with the players and then opting to heed their advice and move to a faster-paced offensive tempo. Hayward hasn’t played since scoring a career-best 37 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder last Tuesday and the Jazz lost at home to Cleveland on Friday when he was unavailable.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (19-17 SU, 17-19-0 ATS): Guard Randy Foye has been playing superbly during the winning streak, averaging 18.4 points to raise his season mark to 10.2. Foye is 20-of-37 from 3-point range during the hot stretch, knocking down seven against Boston on Tuesday and six against Oklahoma City two nights later. Last season, Foye played for the Jazz and set a franchise record with a career-best 178 3-pointers, but he has been bottled up in two games against Utah this season. Foye has scored just seven total points on 3-of-13 shooting in the two meetings.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (12-26 SU, 16-20-2 ATS): Alec Burks will again be in the starting lineup if Hayward can’t go and the third-year guard scored 16 points in 33 minutes in the loss to the Cavaliers. Burks’ production is up-and-down but a starting opportunity typically assures him 30-plus minutes and gives him more time to find a rhythm. He has been a valuable offensive weapon off the bench for Utah and has scored 20 or more points four times while averaging a career-best 12.2 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: The teams split this season’s first two meetings.... Denver F Wilson Chandler (hip) could miss his third straight game.... Jazz C Enes Kanter has recorded double-doubles in three of the past six games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the spread 549 times, while UTAH covered the spread 420 times. *EDGE against the spread =DENVER. In 1000 simulated games, DENVER won the game straight up 649 times, while UTAH won 330 times. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went under the total, while 499 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DENVER covered the first half line 523 times, while UTAH covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 519 games went under first half total, while 481 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Gordon Hayward had 30 points and a career-best 13 rebounds in a 103-93 road win over Denver on Dec. 13. He scored a team-best 22 when the Nuggets visited Salt Lake City on Nov. 11, but Utah suffered a 100-81 loss.
--DENVER is 37-34 against the spread versus UTAH since 1996.
--UTAH is 47-27 straight up against DENVER since 1996.
--40 of 73 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--UTAH is 38-32 versus the first half line when playing against DENVER since 1996.
--41 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Utah.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Jazz are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--Over is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/13/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 1/13/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Monday's Notebook
•Duke lost its first two ACC road games- they beat Georgia Tech by 22 in only home ACC home game. Blue Devils are 14-2 in last 16 games with Virginia, winning last seven here, six by 14+ points. Cavaliers lost by 35 at Tennessee in its last non-league game, then won first three ACC games by 12-23-31 points, with wins at Florida State/NC State. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-4 versus spread.
•West Virginia swept Texas by total of six points LY; Mountaineers lost tough 73-72 game to Oklahoma State in Big X opener Saturday- their three league games were decided by total of nine points. Longhorns split pair of 3-point league games at home; they lost by 13 at Oklahoma State in only Big X road tilt, Big X favorites are 7-5-1 versus spread, 3-2 at home. Texas does have road wins at Temple/North Carolina.
•Cleveland State won 10 of last 13 games with Youngstown, going 3-1 in last four visits here, with wins by 22-10-20 points. Vikings allowed an average of 59.3 ppg in 2-1 Horizon start, winning last two games by 28-10 points. YSU is 6-1 at home but played first three (1-2) Horizon tilts on road- their only home loss was 88-86 to Austin Peay. Horizon home teams are 9-6 against the spread.
•Northeastern is 4-12, losing 10 of last 12 games; they split first couple league games, with both going OT. Huskies are turning ball over 21.0% of time, making just 30.8% from arc. Charleston had 4-game win streak snapped at Hofstra Saturday, after they won CAA debut by 14 at home over JMU; Cougars are 3-2 overall on road, with wins at Davidson and Old Dominion. CAA home favorites are 2-4 against spread.
•Texas State is just 5-12, but they held UL-Monroe to nine points in the second half of 61-36 win Saturday, Bobcats' first road win in six away games- four of their five road losses are by 17+ points. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-10 versus spread this month. UL-Lafayette is 10-5, but only 3-3 versus teams outside top 200- they're turning ball over 20.1% of time. ULL is holding teams to 27.8% from arc (#11 in US).
•Iowa State was 23-12 LY, but 0-3 versus Kansas, losing by 8-12-15 points; Cyclones lost first game Saturday, and PG Kane tweaked ankle- unsure if he is playing here. ISU lost 16 of last 17 games with Jayhawks, with four of their last five losses in Ames by 11+ points. Big X favorites are 7-5-1 versus spread, 3-2 at home. Kansas scored 88 ppg in winning its first two Big X games- they're 1-2 on road, winning by 7 at Oklahoma.
•Syracuse allowed 47 ppg in winning first three ACC games by 5-20-12 points, holding North Carolina to 45 points Saturday; Orange are 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at St John's, 20 at Virginia Tech. Boston College lost seven of last nine games; their last two games were decided by total of five points. BC is 3-4 in games decided by 4 or less points or in OT. ACC home dogs are 4-4 versus spread, 3-1 if getting 4+ points.
•Tennessee State won seven of last eight games with UT-Martin, winning last three visits here by 6-3-13 points. Tigers are 1-9 versus D-I teams, 0-9 on road; they're making 27.8% from arc. OVC home favorites are 7-9 versus spread, 2-3 if laying less than 5 points. Skyhawks are 3-14 against D-I teams, with best win over #297 Northern Kentucky- teams are making 59% of 2-point shots against, 3rd-worst mark in country.
•Northern Arizona is 3-2 in last five games after starting 1-7 versus D-I foes; Lumberjacks are 2-1 in league, with only loss by hoop at Montana St. Southern Utah is 0-11 versus D-I teams, last in country in three statistical categories, bottom 10 in six- their Big Sky losses are by 4-36-28 points. Big Sky home teams are 8-5-1 versus spread if number is single digits, 3-1 if they're a home underdog.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- DUKE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DUKE 76.5, OPPONENT 61.4.
-- SOUTHERN UTAH is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN UTAH 66.3, OPPONENT 69.6.
-- CLEVELAND ST is 2-13 (-12.3 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND ST 25.8, OPPONENT 36.3.
-- SOUTHERN UTAH is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN UTAH 27.1, OPPONENT 32.9.
-- MIKE KRZYZEWSKI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of DUKE.
The average score was KRZYZEWSKI 83.8, OPPONENT 65.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- LOYOLA-MD is 3-20 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 65
-- YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was YOUNGSTOWN ST 67.6, OPPONENT 73.9.
-- KANSAS is 35-15 (+18.5 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was KANSAS 39.5, OPPONENT 30.6.
-- SYRACUSE is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SYRACUSE 30.1, OPPONENT 24.0
-- JIM BOEHEIM is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% as the coach of SYRACUSE.
The average score was BOEHEIM 83.1, OPPONENT 68.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road teams as an favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-23 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.4
The average score in these games was: Team 66.4, Opponent 67.9 (Average point differential = -1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (27.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-34).
-- Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TENNESSEE ST) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.
(27-6 since 1997.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.1, Opponent 30.9 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
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Monday's Match-ups
#715 VIRGINIA @ #716 DUKE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Duke -6.5, Total: 133) - Off to its worst conference start in seven seasons, No. 13 Duke looks to right the ship when it hosts ACC rival Virginia on Monday. The Blue Devils were held to a season-low 59 points on Saturday, falling by 13 at Clemson and slipping to 1-2 in conference play. "We're not very good right now and that's on me," coach Mike Krzyzewski told the Herald-Sun. "We’ve got to take steps to try to get to be good, because the league is unforgiving."
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have rolled off three straight wins to kick off the ACC portion of their schedule, marking the first time that's happened since 2009-10. Virginia has cruised past each of its conference opponents, winning by an average of 22 points, and forward Mike Tobey told the Charlottesville Daily Progress that the team has learned how to close out games. "In the past, what we would do is get a lead and (let opponents) back in," he said. "This year, we're talking about stepping on the gas and just keep going."
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (12-4 SU, 6-6-0 ATS, 3-0 ACC): The Cavaliers are no offensive powerhouse, averaging 65.9 points, which ranks ahead of only Miami (63.5) in the conference, but their defense is phenomenal. Virginia has allowed only 55.2 points per game, good for second in the ACC behind Clemson (53.9). The Cavaliers don't have a single player among the conference's top 20 in scoring, as Joe Harris (10.7 points per game) and Malcolm Brogdon (10.1) lead the offense.
•ABOUT DUKE (12-4 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 1-2 ACC): On the surface, the numbers for freshman Jabari Parker are impressive, with his 19.5 points per game good for a share of second in the ACC. Parker has struggled of late, however, shooting 16-of-48 and averaging 11.5 points in his last four games, after totaling 20 or more points in 10 of his first 12 games. Rodney Hood adds 18.6 points per game for the Blue Devils and Quinn Cook chips in with 13.6, while Parker's average of 7.6 rebounds leads the team and ranks sixth in the conference.
•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia snapped an eight-game losing streak against Duke with a 73-68 win in Charlottesville last season but the Blue Devils are 17-2 against the Cavaliers in the last 19 meetings.... Duke's 82.7 points per game leads the ACC and ranks 21st nationally.... The Cavaliers may have an edge against Duke on the boards, as they lead the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (75.7 percent).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 500 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 500 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 698 times, while VIRGINIA won 272 times. In 1000 simulated games, 681 games went over the total, while 284 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the first half line 505 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 660 games went over first half total, while 306 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 15-15 against the spread versus VIRGINIA since 1997.
--DUKE is 27-4 straight up against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--13 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against DUKE since 1997.
--14 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Cavaliers are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Duke.
--Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Duke.
--Road team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--UVA is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Over is 7-2 in UVA last 9 Mon. games.
--DUKE is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Mon. games.
--DUKE is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 7-3 in DUKE last 10 overall.
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#717 TEXAS @ #718 W. VIRGINIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: West Virginia -5.5, Total: 147.5) - West Virginia looks to bounce back from its first loss in Big 12 play when it hosts Texas on Monday. The Mountaineers saw their three-game winning streak snapped when they fell short in their upset bid versus No. 12 Oklahoma State on Saturday. Coach Bob Huggins insisted his players must put the 73-72 loss behind them quickly, saying: "Of course it's challenging, everyone complains about quick turnarounds, but it is what it is, I'm more worried about Texas than when we play them."
Texas snapped a two-game losing streak with a vital 67-64 victory over in-state rival Texas Tech to record its first conference win. The Longhorns desperately needed the win and will look for another one in Morgantown with a brutal gauntlet of games against four ranked teams on deck. Coach Rick Barnes was pleased with his team's display against the Red Raiders and admitted the Big 12 is more challenging than usual, saying: "I think we have the best conference in the country. I expected the game to be this way and we made some plays."
•ABOUT TEXAS: (12-4 SU, 6-7-0 ATS, 1-2 Big 12): Isaiah Taylor registered 14 points and four assists versus Texas Tech and has scored in double figures 12 times this season. The Longhorns finished a season-best 18-of-21 from the free throw line and made eight in a row down the stretch to seal the win against the Red Raiders. Texas is 11th in the nation in rebounds per game (41.8) and has won the battle of the boards in 13 of its 16 contests.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (10-6 SU, 7-6-0 ATS, 2-1 Big 12): Juwan Staten ranks in the top 25 nationally in assists per game (6.1) and dished out eight assists to go along with 20 points and five rebounds against Oklahoma State. Jonathan Holton, who transferred from Palm Beach State Community College, was denied his appeal for a waiver request to play for the Mountaineers this season. Eron Harris leads the team in scoring (18.5) but has gone 4-for-17 from beyond the arc in his last two outings.
•PREGAME NOTES: West Virginia is 72-23 in home games under Huggins.... The Mountaineers have made at least one 3-pointer in 471 consecutive contests.... Texas is 11-2 when shooting 40 percent or better from the field.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 608 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 392 times. *EDGE against the spread =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA won the game straight up 745 times, while TEXAS won 230 times. In 1000 simulated games, 667 games went over the total, while 333 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 548 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 409 times. *EDGE against first half line =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, 637 games went over first half total, while 363 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 3-1 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 2-2 straight up against TEXAS since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEX is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Over is 6-2 in TEX last 8 overall.
--Over is 9-2 in TEX last 11 vs. Big 12.
--WVU is 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games.
--Under is 7-3 in WVU last 10 overall.
--Under is 7-3 in WVU last 10 Mon. games.
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#725 KANSAS @ #726 IOWA ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa State -1.5, Total: 152) - Less than 48 hours after its first loss of the season, No. 7 Iowa State will face another tough test when it heads to No. 20 Kansas in a matchup of Big 12 contenders. The biggest question mark is the health of Iowa State’s star DeAndre Kane, who injured his ankle in the Cyclones’ loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. X-rays came back negative on Kane, but the Big 12’s assist leader told the Ames Tribune: “It’s throbbing — It’ll probably swell up on the plane ride back home … We’ll see how it feels in the next two days.”
On the other side, Jayhawks phenom Andrew Wiggins appears to be more comfortable than ever. The freshman scored 22 in Kansas’ blowout win over Kansas State, and told the Kansas City Star he feels like he is finally settling into a level of calm. “I think I’m just having fun,” Wiggins said.
•ABOUT KANSAS (11-4 SU, 7-8-0 ATS, 2-0 Big 12): While Wiggins gets the majority of the attention, two players who should not be forgotten on Bill Self’s squad are Wayne Selden and Joel Embiid. Selden has come on of late, scoring 20-plus points in the Jayhawks’ two conference victories and bumping his average into double figures at 10.3. Like Wiggins, the seven-foot Embiid also continues to get more comfortable, and he's averaging 10.5 points and 7.3 rebounds.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (14-1 SU, 9-4-0 ATS, 2-1 Big 12): The Cyclones might learn the hard way just how important Kane is to an offense that ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 86.7 points and first in assists at 18.9. If Kane, who is in the top 10 in the Big 12 in scoring, assists, rebounding and field goal percentage, can’t go, freshman Monte Morris, who has averaged 21.7 minutes, will get the start. Up front, the Hawkeyes are paced by Melvin Ejim (18 points, 7.1 rebounds), Georges Niang (15.3 points, 4.1 rebounds) and Dustin Hogue (12.3 points, 9.3 rebounds).
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State is one of seven schools with three players averaging at least 15 points.... Kansas has outrebounded 13 of 15 opponents this season.... Kansas has shot 50 percent or better in five of its last six games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 712 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 288 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 735 times, while KANSAS won 227 times. In 1000 simulated games, 731 games went over the total, while 243 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 606 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 350 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, 680 games went over first half total, while 320 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 20-13 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 26-8 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--16 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--13 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 9-3 in KU last 12 Mon. games.
--Under is 20-6-2 in KU last 28 road games.
--ISU is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games.
--ISU is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
--Over is 20-5-1 in ISU last 26 home games.
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#727 SYRACUSE @ #728 BOSTON COLLEGE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Syracuse -8.5, Total: 133) - Syracuse looks to remain one of four unbeatens in college basketball when it renews acquaintances with Boston College in the first matchup between the teams as Atlantic Coast Conference opponents. The second-ranked Orange have clamped down on ACC opponents in their debut season in the league, limiting their first three to an average of 47 points. To emphasize the strength of Syracuse's vaunted defense, it shot only 35 percent and still had few issues getting by North Carolina 57-45 on Saturday, improving to 16-0 for the third time in four seasons.
The Orange is 40-23 all-time against the Eagles but dropped the last two meetings when the teams were Big East foes before Boston College left for the ACC after the 2004-05 season. The current Eagles are coming off their first win in conference play, a 62-59 triumph at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Boston College, expected to make strides after a young squad finished strong last season, got 17 points - including five 3-pointers - from Lonnie Jackson to win for just the second time in its last nine games.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (16-0 SU, 8-4-0 ATS, 3-0 ACC): C.J. Fair scored 20 points and Jerami Grant had 12 points and 12 rebounds in the win over the Tar Heels, both playing all 40 minutes. While the Orange have been dominant thus far, the fact that their starters shoulder so much of the load is something to keep an eye on. The Syracuse bench managed three points against North Carolina and is averaging just over six points in three ACC games, two of which saw coach Jim Boeheim stick with a seven-man rotation.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (5-11 SU, 3-11-0 ATS, 1-2 ACC): Among the many issues for Steve Donahue's club was an early injury to center Dennis Clifford, whose 7-foot frame was sorely missed during the team's lackluster start. Clifford, a junior, returned in a limited role two games ago in a loss to Clemson but was a factor in the win over the Hokies, recording six points, six rebounds and a blocked shot in 21 minutes. Clifford made an impact as a freshman last season and should provide a boost for a team that ranks last in the ACC in blocks.
•PREGAME NOTES: Orange G Trevor Cooney has shot 2-for-12 from 3-point range twice in ACC play.... Boston College (72.6 percent) and Syracuse (71.4) rank third and fourth, respectively, in the league in foul shooting.... The Eagles have been held under 70 points in six straight games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE covered the spread 519 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the spread 481 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 765 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE won 214 times. In 1000 simulated games, 792 games went over the total, while 189 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON COLLEGE covered the first half line 494 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 455 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 733 games went over first half total, while 232 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 6-5 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 7-4 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 8-3 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Orange are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SYR is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--SYR is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Under is 11-5-1 in SYR last 17 Mon. games.
--BC is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--BC is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Over is 6-2 in BC last 8 home games.
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 1/13/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Monday's Notebook
•Duke lost its first two ACC road games- they beat Georgia Tech by 22 in only home ACC home game. Blue Devils are 14-2 in last 16 games with Virginia, winning last seven here, six by 14+ points. Cavaliers lost by 35 at Tennessee in its last non-league game, then won first three ACC games by 12-23-31 points, with wins at Florida State/NC State. ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-4 versus spread.
•West Virginia swept Texas by total of six points LY; Mountaineers lost tough 73-72 game to Oklahoma State in Big X opener Saturday- their three league games were decided by total of nine points. Longhorns split pair of 3-point league games at home; they lost by 13 at Oklahoma State in only Big X road tilt, Big X favorites are 7-5-1 versus spread, 3-2 at home. Texas does have road wins at Temple/North Carolina.
•Cleveland State won 10 of last 13 games with Youngstown, going 3-1 in last four visits here, with wins by 22-10-20 points. Vikings allowed an average of 59.3 ppg in 2-1 Horizon start, winning last two games by 28-10 points. YSU is 6-1 at home but played first three (1-2) Horizon tilts on road- their only home loss was 88-86 to Austin Peay. Horizon home teams are 9-6 against the spread.
•Northeastern is 4-12, losing 10 of last 12 games; they split first couple league games, with both going OT. Huskies are turning ball over 21.0% of time, making just 30.8% from arc. Charleston had 4-game win streak snapped at Hofstra Saturday, after they won CAA debut by 14 at home over JMU; Cougars are 3-2 overall on road, with wins at Davidson and Old Dominion. CAA home favorites are 2-4 against spread.
•Texas State is just 5-12, but they held UL-Monroe to nine points in the second half of 61-36 win Saturday, Bobcats' first road win in six away games- four of their five road losses are by 17+ points. Sun Belt home favorites are 3-10 versus spread this month. UL-Lafayette is 10-5, but only 3-3 versus teams outside top 200- they're turning ball over 20.1% of time. ULL is holding teams to 27.8% from arc (#11 in US).
•Iowa State was 23-12 LY, but 0-3 versus Kansas, losing by 8-12-15 points; Cyclones lost first game Saturday, and PG Kane tweaked ankle- unsure if he is playing here. ISU lost 16 of last 17 games with Jayhawks, with four of their last five losses in Ames by 11+ points. Big X favorites are 7-5-1 versus spread, 3-2 at home. Kansas scored 88 ppg in winning its first two Big X games- they're 1-2 on road, winning by 7 at Oklahoma.
•Syracuse allowed 47 ppg in winning first three ACC games by 5-20-12 points, holding North Carolina to 45 points Saturday; Orange are 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at St John's, 20 at Virginia Tech. Boston College lost seven of last nine games; their last two games were decided by total of five points. BC is 3-4 in games decided by 4 or less points or in OT. ACC home dogs are 4-4 versus spread, 3-1 if getting 4+ points.
•Tennessee State won seven of last eight games with UT-Martin, winning last three visits here by 6-3-13 points. Tigers are 1-9 versus D-I teams, 0-9 on road; they're making 27.8% from arc. OVC home favorites are 7-9 versus spread, 2-3 if laying less than 5 points. Skyhawks are 3-14 against D-I teams, with best win over #297 Northern Kentucky- teams are making 59% of 2-point shots against, 3rd-worst mark in country.
•Northern Arizona is 3-2 in last five games after starting 1-7 versus D-I foes; Lumberjacks are 2-1 in league, with only loss by hoop at Montana St. Southern Utah is 0-11 versus D-I teams, last in country in three statistical categories, bottom 10 in six- their Big Sky losses are by 4-36-28 points. Big Sky home teams are 8-5-1 versus spread if number is single digits, 3-1 if they're a home underdog.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- DUKE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DUKE 76.5, OPPONENT 61.4.
-- SOUTHERN UTAH is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN UTAH 66.3, OPPONENT 69.6.
-- CLEVELAND ST is 2-13 (-12.3 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND ST 25.8, OPPONENT 36.3.
-- SOUTHERN UTAH is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SOUTHERN UTAH 27.1, OPPONENT 32.9.
-- MIKE KRZYZEWSKI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of DUKE.
The average score was KRZYZEWSKI 83.8, OPPONENT 65.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- LOYOLA-MD is 3-20 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was LOYOLA-MD 65
-- YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was YOUNGSTOWN ST 67.6, OPPONENT 73.9.
-- KANSAS is 35-15 (+18.5 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was KANSAS 39.5, OPPONENT 30.6.
-- SYRACUSE is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SYRACUSE 30.1, OPPONENT 24.0
-- JIM BOEHEIM is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% as the coach of SYRACUSE.
The average score was BOEHEIM 83.1, OPPONENT 68.1.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road teams as an favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-23 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.4
The average score in these games was: Team 66.4, Opponent 67.9 (Average point differential = -1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 10 (27.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-34).
-- Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (TENNESSEE ST) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher.
(27-6 since 1997.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.1, Opponent 30.9 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
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Monday's Match-ups
#715 VIRGINIA @ #716 DUKE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Duke -6.5, Total: 133) - Off to its worst conference start in seven seasons, No. 13 Duke looks to right the ship when it hosts ACC rival Virginia on Monday. The Blue Devils were held to a season-low 59 points on Saturday, falling by 13 at Clemson and slipping to 1-2 in conference play. "We're not very good right now and that's on me," coach Mike Krzyzewski told the Herald-Sun. "We’ve got to take steps to try to get to be good, because the league is unforgiving."
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have rolled off three straight wins to kick off the ACC portion of their schedule, marking the first time that's happened since 2009-10. Virginia has cruised past each of its conference opponents, winning by an average of 22 points, and forward Mike Tobey told the Charlottesville Daily Progress that the team has learned how to close out games. "In the past, what we would do is get a lead and (let opponents) back in," he said. "This year, we're talking about stepping on the gas and just keep going."
•ABOUT VIRGINIA (12-4 SU, 6-6-0 ATS, 3-0 ACC): The Cavaliers are no offensive powerhouse, averaging 65.9 points, which ranks ahead of only Miami (63.5) in the conference, but their defense is phenomenal. Virginia has allowed only 55.2 points per game, good for second in the ACC behind Clemson (53.9). The Cavaliers don't have a single player among the conference's top 20 in scoring, as Joe Harris (10.7 points per game) and Malcolm Brogdon (10.1) lead the offense.
•ABOUT DUKE (12-4 SU, 9-7-0 ATS, 1-2 ACC): On the surface, the numbers for freshman Jabari Parker are impressive, with his 19.5 points per game good for a share of second in the ACC. Parker has struggled of late, however, shooting 16-of-48 and averaging 11.5 points in his last four games, after totaling 20 or more points in 10 of his first 12 games. Rodney Hood adds 18.6 points per game for the Blue Devils and Quinn Cook chips in with 13.6, while Parker's average of 7.6 rebounds leads the team and ranks sixth in the conference.
•PREGAME NOTES: Virginia snapped an eight-game losing streak against Duke with a 73-68 win in Charlottesville last season but the Blue Devils are 17-2 against the Cavaliers in the last 19 meetings.... Duke's 82.7 points per game leads the ACC and ranks 21st nationally.... The Cavaliers may have an edge against Duke on the boards, as they lead the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (75.7 percent).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the spread 500 times, while VIRGINIA covered the spread 500 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 698 times, while VIRGINIA won 272 times. In 1000 simulated games, 681 games went over the total, while 284 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUKE covered the first half line 505 times, while VIRGINIA covered the first half line 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 660 games went over first half total, while 306 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 15-15 against the spread versus VIRGINIA since 1997.
--DUKE is 27-4 straight up against VIRGINIA since 1997.
--13 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VIRGINIA is 16-14 versus the first half line when playing against DUKE since 1997.
--14 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Cavaliers are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Duke.
--Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Duke.
--Road team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UVA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--UVA is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Over is 7-2 in UVA last 9 Mon. games.
--DUKE is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Mon. games.
--DUKE is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 7-3 in DUKE last 10 overall.
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#717 TEXAS @ #718 W. VIRGINIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: West Virginia -5.5, Total: 147.5) - West Virginia looks to bounce back from its first loss in Big 12 play when it hosts Texas on Monday. The Mountaineers saw their three-game winning streak snapped when they fell short in their upset bid versus No. 12 Oklahoma State on Saturday. Coach Bob Huggins insisted his players must put the 73-72 loss behind them quickly, saying: "Of course it's challenging, everyone complains about quick turnarounds, but it is what it is, I'm more worried about Texas than when we play them."
Texas snapped a two-game losing streak with a vital 67-64 victory over in-state rival Texas Tech to record its first conference win. The Longhorns desperately needed the win and will look for another one in Morgantown with a brutal gauntlet of games against four ranked teams on deck. Coach Rick Barnes was pleased with his team's display against the Red Raiders and admitted the Big 12 is more challenging than usual, saying: "I think we have the best conference in the country. I expected the game to be this way and we made some plays."
•ABOUT TEXAS: (12-4 SU, 6-7-0 ATS, 1-2 Big 12): Isaiah Taylor registered 14 points and four assists versus Texas Tech and has scored in double figures 12 times this season. The Longhorns finished a season-best 18-of-21 from the free throw line and made eight in a row down the stretch to seal the win against the Red Raiders. Texas is 11th in the nation in rebounds per game (41.8) and has won the battle of the boards in 13 of its 16 contests.
•ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (10-6 SU, 7-6-0 ATS, 2-1 Big 12): Juwan Staten ranks in the top 25 nationally in assists per game (6.1) and dished out eight assists to go along with 20 points and five rebounds against Oklahoma State. Jonathan Holton, who transferred from Palm Beach State Community College, was denied his appeal for a waiver request to play for the Mountaineers this season. Eron Harris leads the team in scoring (18.5) but has gone 4-for-17 from beyond the arc in his last two outings.
•PREGAME NOTES: West Virginia is 72-23 in home games under Huggins.... The Mountaineers have made at least one 3-pointer in 471 consecutive contests.... Texas is 11-2 when shooting 40 percent or better from the field.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the spread 608 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 392 times. *EDGE against the spread =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA won the game straight up 745 times, while TEXAS won 230 times. In 1000 simulated games, 667 games went over the total, while 333 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, W VIRGINIA covered the first half line 548 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 409 times. *EDGE against first half line =W VIRGINIA. In 1000 simulated games, 637 games went over first half total, while 363 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--W VIRGINIA is 3-1 against the spread versus TEXAS since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 2-2 straight up against TEXAS since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--W VIRGINIA is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEX is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--Over is 6-2 in TEX last 8 overall.
--Over is 9-2 in TEX last 11 vs. Big 12.
--WVU is 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games.
--Under is 7-3 in WVU last 10 overall.
--Under is 7-3 in WVU last 10 Mon. games.
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#725 KANSAS @ #726 IOWA ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa State -1.5, Total: 152) - Less than 48 hours after its first loss of the season, No. 7 Iowa State will face another tough test when it heads to No. 20 Kansas in a matchup of Big 12 contenders. The biggest question mark is the health of Iowa State’s star DeAndre Kane, who injured his ankle in the Cyclones’ loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. X-rays came back negative on Kane, but the Big 12’s assist leader told the Ames Tribune: “It’s throbbing — It’ll probably swell up on the plane ride back home … We’ll see how it feels in the next two days.”
On the other side, Jayhawks phenom Andrew Wiggins appears to be more comfortable than ever. The freshman scored 22 in Kansas’ blowout win over Kansas State, and told the Kansas City Star he feels like he is finally settling into a level of calm. “I think I’m just having fun,” Wiggins said.
•ABOUT KANSAS (11-4 SU, 7-8-0 ATS, 2-0 Big 12): While Wiggins gets the majority of the attention, two players who should not be forgotten on Bill Self’s squad are Wayne Selden and Joel Embiid. Selden has come on of late, scoring 20-plus points in the Jayhawks’ two conference victories and bumping his average into double figures at 10.3. Like Wiggins, the seven-foot Embiid also continues to get more comfortable, and he's averaging 10.5 points and 7.3 rebounds.
•ABOUT IOWA STATE (14-1 SU, 9-4-0 ATS, 2-1 Big 12): The Cyclones might learn the hard way just how important Kane is to an offense that ranks sixth in the nation in scoring at 86.7 points and first in assists at 18.9. If Kane, who is in the top 10 in the Big 12 in scoring, assists, rebounding and field goal percentage, can’t go, freshman Monte Morris, who has averaged 21.7 minutes, will get the start. Up front, the Hawkeyes are paced by Melvin Ejim (18 points, 7.1 rebounds), Georges Niang (15.3 points, 4.1 rebounds) and Dustin Hogue (12.3 points, 9.3 rebounds).
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa State is one of seven schools with three players averaging at least 15 points.... Kansas has outrebounded 13 of 15 opponents this season.... Kansas has shot 50 percent or better in five of its last six games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the spread 712 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 288 times. *EDGE against the spread =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST won the game straight up 735 times, while KANSAS won 227 times. In 1000 simulated games, 731 games went over the total, while 243 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA ST covered the first half line 606 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 350 times. *EDGE against first half line =IOWA ST. In 1000 simulated games, 680 games went over first half total, while 320 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA ST is 20-13 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 26-8 straight up against IOWA ST since 1997.
--16 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--KANSAS is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA ST since 1997.
--13 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big 12.
--Under is 9-3 in KU last 12 Mon. games.
--Under is 20-6-2 in KU last 28 road games.
--ISU is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games.
--ISU is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
--Over is 20-5-1 in ISU last 26 home games.
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#727 SYRACUSE @ #728 BOSTON COLLEGE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Syracuse -8.5, Total: 133) - Syracuse looks to remain one of four unbeatens in college basketball when it renews acquaintances with Boston College in the first matchup between the teams as Atlantic Coast Conference opponents. The second-ranked Orange have clamped down on ACC opponents in their debut season in the league, limiting their first three to an average of 47 points. To emphasize the strength of Syracuse's vaunted defense, it shot only 35 percent and still had few issues getting by North Carolina 57-45 on Saturday, improving to 16-0 for the third time in four seasons.
The Orange is 40-23 all-time against the Eagles but dropped the last two meetings when the teams were Big East foes before Boston College left for the ACC after the 2004-05 season. The current Eagles are coming off their first win in conference play, a 62-59 triumph at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Boston College, expected to make strides after a young squad finished strong last season, got 17 points - including five 3-pointers - from Lonnie Jackson to win for just the second time in its last nine games.
•ABOUT SYRACUSE (16-0 SU, 8-4-0 ATS, 3-0 ACC): C.J. Fair scored 20 points and Jerami Grant had 12 points and 12 rebounds in the win over the Tar Heels, both playing all 40 minutes. While the Orange have been dominant thus far, the fact that their starters shoulder so much of the load is something to keep an eye on. The Syracuse bench managed three points against North Carolina and is averaging just over six points in three ACC games, two of which saw coach Jim Boeheim stick with a seven-man rotation.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (5-11 SU, 3-11-0 ATS, 1-2 ACC): Among the many issues for Steve Donahue's club was an early injury to center Dennis Clifford, whose 7-foot frame was sorely missed during the team's lackluster start. Clifford, a junior, returned in a limited role two games ago in a loss to Clemson but was a factor in the win over the Hokies, recording six points, six rebounds and a blocked shot in 21 minutes. Clifford made an impact as a freshman last season and should provide a boost for a team that ranks last in the ACC in blocks.
•PREGAME NOTES: Orange G Trevor Cooney has shot 2-for-12 from 3-point range twice in ACC play.... Boston College (72.6 percent) and Syracuse (71.4) rank third and fourth, respectively, in the league in foul shooting.... The Eagles have been held under 70 points in six straight games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE covered the spread 519 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the spread 481 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SYRACUSE won the game straight up 765 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE won 214 times. In 1000 simulated games, 792 games went over the total, while 189 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON COLLEGE covered the first half line 494 times, while SYRACUSE covered the first half line 455 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 733 games went over first half total, while 232 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SYRACUSE is 6-5 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 7-4 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SYRACUSE is 8-3 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Orange are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SYR is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--SYR is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Under is 11-5-1 in SYR last 17 Mon. games.
--BC is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--BC is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Over is 6-2 in BC last 8 home games.
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Red-hot Spurs head to New Orleans Monday
by Freddy Wander
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -5.5, Total: 201
The Spurs bring the Western Conference's best record to New Orleans on Monday when they take on the sputtering Pelicans.
San Antonio continues to be one of the best teams in the NBA while its superstars are only gaining in age. The Spurs have won seven of the past eight games SU (5-3 ATS) and currently own a one-game lead in the West over the Trail Blazers and Thunder. San Antonio defeated the Timberwolves on Sunday night, 104-86, while covering the 6-point spread and extending its current win streak to four games. New Orleans is moving in the opposite direction at the moment, losing five straight games and going 4-11 SU (5-9-1 ATS) in the past 15 contests. The Pelicans did cover the 8-point spread as underdogs at Dallas on Saturday night though, losing 110-107 while allowing Dirk Nowitzki to drop a season-high 40 points on them. While the Spurs own the NBA's best road record at 14-3 SU (11-6 ATS), including four straight victories, New Orleans is an average 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) when defending its home court. When these franchises met earlier in the season on Nov. 25, San Antonio torched the Pelicans at home, winning 112-93 as a 9.5-point favorite while outshooting them 54% FG (40% threes) to 38% FG (13% threes). That win made the Spurs 15-3 SU in the past 18 matchups in this series, but the Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home. San Antonio has been surprisingly excellent with zero rest this season, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS and outscoring these teams by 12.2 PPG. The club is also 52-25 ATS (68%) versus good ball-handling teams (14 or less TO per game) over the past three seasons. But in this same timeframe, New Orleans is 9-0 ATS after playing two straight division games. Although Spurs C Tiago Splitter (shoulder) remains out, SG Manu Ginobili (hamstring), who has missed two straight games, will travel with the team to New Orleans, but his playing status is uncertain. For the Pelicans, both PG Jrue Holiday (leg) and PF Ryan Anderson (stinger) are out indefinitely, while PG Tyreke Evans (ankle) is questionable.
The Spurs are coming off their eighth straight game scoring 100+ points (110.5 PPG on 52% FG, 40% threes) and now rank sixth in the NBA with 104.7 PPG. As usual, they score many of their points with excellent ball movement and are dishing out 25.3 APG (2nd in NBA). Even being in the high-scoring Western Conference, the Spurs have done great on the defensive side of things, allowing only 96.5 PPG to their opponents (3rd in league) and giving up only 86 points to the Timberwolves, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, on Sunday night. PG Tony Parker (17.6 PPG, 6.3 APG) is coming off a double-double (14 points, 10 assists) and +16 rating against Minnesota in helping his team shoot 57% FG (69% threes). Parker scored 14 points with seven assists against the Pelicans earlier this season, performed well in four games against them last season (22.0 PPG, 6.8 APG) and has had continued success over his entire 42 career games in the matchup, averaging 17.0 PPG (53% FG) and 6.3 APG. PF Tim Duncan (14.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG) continues to play stellar basketball at the age of 37. He is coming off a huge all-around game on Sunday (15 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 blocks) to give him 18.5 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 3.5 APG and 2.3 BPG during his team's four-game win streak. Duncan had only 10 points and five rebounds the first time these teams met, but has proven in 48 career games against them what he is capable of with 18.8 PPG (52% FG), 10.7 RPG and 1.9 BPG. SF Kawhi Leonard (11.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has upped his offensive output over the past three games (15.3 PPG on 69% FG), but has averaged only 7.5 PPG (43% FG) and 4.3 RPG in eight career contests against New Orleans. He had seven points, 11 rebounds and two steals in the Nov. 25 meeting. SG Manu Ginobili (12.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) could miss this game, and if he does, his experience (31 career meetings) and solid play (14.8 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG) against this team will be missed.
At one point this season the Pelicans' fast-paced offense was looking like it could hang in the West, but they have scored only 92.6 PPG over their five-game losing skid and 101.6 PPG on the season (14th in NBA). Their defense has been one of the worst in the league also, allowing 103.2 PPG on 46.5% FG (both 27th in league) and has been even worse in seven January games (105.9 PPG on 47.5% FG). C Anthony Davis (19.6 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 3.1 BPG, 1.4 SPG) has certainly established himself as one of the top big men in the league and has a double-double in three of the team’s past four games. He had one of his least productive offensive games of the season in the loss to the Spurs on Nov. 25, tying a season low with 10 points on 3-of-8 FG, but he did grab six rebounds while blocking four shots. Davis has averaged 15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.6 BPG in five games against San Antonio over his young career. SG Eric Gordon (16.1 PPG, 1.3 SPG) has been expected to do more of the scoring with both PF Ryan Anderson (19.8 PPG) and PG Jrue Holiday (14.3 PPG) out, and has responded with 23.3 PPG on 56% FG (43% threes) in the past three contests. He did next to nothing in the loss to the Spurs this season though with four points (2-of-9 FG), two assists and four turnovers, but has usually performed well against them with 16.9 PPG on 45% FG (38% threes) in 12 career meetings. PG Tyreke Evans (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.2 APG) has been one of the best reserves in the NBA, and scored 12 points with nine rebounds against San Antonio the first time they played. If Evans ends up missing this game along with the other injuries to key players, the Pelicans will have major trouble keeping up with the Spurs.
by Freddy Wander
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -5.5, Total: 201
The Spurs bring the Western Conference's best record to New Orleans on Monday when they take on the sputtering Pelicans.
San Antonio continues to be one of the best teams in the NBA while its superstars are only gaining in age. The Spurs have won seven of the past eight games SU (5-3 ATS) and currently own a one-game lead in the West over the Trail Blazers and Thunder. San Antonio defeated the Timberwolves on Sunday night, 104-86, while covering the 6-point spread and extending its current win streak to four games. New Orleans is moving in the opposite direction at the moment, losing five straight games and going 4-11 SU (5-9-1 ATS) in the past 15 contests. The Pelicans did cover the 8-point spread as underdogs at Dallas on Saturday night though, losing 110-107 while allowing Dirk Nowitzki to drop a season-high 40 points on them. While the Spurs own the NBA's best road record at 14-3 SU (11-6 ATS), including four straight victories, New Orleans is an average 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) when defending its home court. When these franchises met earlier in the season on Nov. 25, San Antonio torched the Pelicans at home, winning 112-93 as a 9.5-point favorite while outshooting them 54% FG (40% threes) to 38% FG (13% threes). That win made the Spurs 15-3 SU in the past 18 matchups in this series, but the Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home. San Antonio has been surprisingly excellent with zero rest this season, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS and outscoring these teams by 12.2 PPG. The club is also 52-25 ATS (68%) versus good ball-handling teams (14 or less TO per game) over the past three seasons. But in this same timeframe, New Orleans is 9-0 ATS after playing two straight division games. Although Spurs C Tiago Splitter (shoulder) remains out, SG Manu Ginobili (hamstring), who has missed two straight games, will travel with the team to New Orleans, but his playing status is uncertain. For the Pelicans, both PG Jrue Holiday (leg) and PF Ryan Anderson (stinger) are out indefinitely, while PG Tyreke Evans (ankle) is questionable.
The Spurs are coming off their eighth straight game scoring 100+ points (110.5 PPG on 52% FG, 40% threes) and now rank sixth in the NBA with 104.7 PPG. As usual, they score many of their points with excellent ball movement and are dishing out 25.3 APG (2nd in NBA). Even being in the high-scoring Western Conference, the Spurs have done great on the defensive side of things, allowing only 96.5 PPG to their opponents (3rd in league) and giving up only 86 points to the Timberwolves, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, on Sunday night. PG Tony Parker (17.6 PPG, 6.3 APG) is coming off a double-double (14 points, 10 assists) and +16 rating against Minnesota in helping his team shoot 57% FG (69% threes). Parker scored 14 points with seven assists against the Pelicans earlier this season, performed well in four games against them last season (22.0 PPG, 6.8 APG) and has had continued success over his entire 42 career games in the matchup, averaging 17.0 PPG (53% FG) and 6.3 APG. PF Tim Duncan (14.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG) continues to play stellar basketball at the age of 37. He is coming off a huge all-around game on Sunday (15 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 blocks) to give him 18.5 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 3.5 APG and 2.3 BPG during his team's four-game win streak. Duncan had only 10 points and five rebounds the first time these teams met, but has proven in 48 career games against them what he is capable of with 18.8 PPG (52% FG), 10.7 RPG and 1.9 BPG. SF Kawhi Leonard (11.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has upped his offensive output over the past three games (15.3 PPG on 69% FG), but has averaged only 7.5 PPG (43% FG) and 4.3 RPG in eight career contests against New Orleans. He had seven points, 11 rebounds and two steals in the Nov. 25 meeting. SG Manu Ginobili (12.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) could miss this game, and if he does, his experience (31 career meetings) and solid play (14.8 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG) against this team will be missed.
At one point this season the Pelicans' fast-paced offense was looking like it could hang in the West, but they have scored only 92.6 PPG over their five-game losing skid and 101.6 PPG on the season (14th in NBA). Their defense has been one of the worst in the league also, allowing 103.2 PPG on 46.5% FG (both 27th in league) and has been even worse in seven January games (105.9 PPG on 47.5% FG). C Anthony Davis (19.6 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 3.1 BPG, 1.4 SPG) has certainly established himself as one of the top big men in the league and has a double-double in three of the team’s past four games. He had one of his least productive offensive games of the season in the loss to the Spurs on Nov. 25, tying a season low with 10 points on 3-of-8 FG, but he did grab six rebounds while blocking four shots. Davis has averaged 15.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 1.6 BPG in five games against San Antonio over his young career. SG Eric Gordon (16.1 PPG, 1.3 SPG) has been expected to do more of the scoring with both PF Ryan Anderson (19.8 PPG) and PG Jrue Holiday (14.3 PPG) out, and has responded with 23.3 PPG on 56% FG (43% threes) in the past three contests. He did next to nothing in the loss to the Spurs this season though with four points (2-of-9 FG), two assists and four turnovers, but has usually performed well against them with 16.9 PPG on 45% FG (38% threes) in 12 career meetings. PG Tyreke Evans (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.2 APG) has been one of the best reserves in the NBA, and scored 12 points with nine rebounds against San Antonio the first time they played. If Evans ends up missing this game along with the other injuries to key players, the Pelicans will have major trouble keeping up with the Spurs.
Rocketman Sports
CBB
Kansas @ Iowa State 9:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#725) Kansas -1
The Kansas Jayhawks travel to Iowa State to take on the Cyclones on Monday night. Kansas is 11-4 SU overall this year while Iowa State comes in with a 14-1 SU overall record on the season. Kansas is scoring 79.1 points per game overall this year, 82.4 points per game their past five games overall and 88 points per game in conference games this year. Kansas is 26-8 SU overall vs Iowa State since 1997 including 4-1 SU the past 3 years. Kansas is 12-1 ATS last 13 games against the Big 12. Kansas is 9-4 ATS last 13 games after a SU win of 20 points or more. Iowa State guard DeAndre Kane is doubtful for tonight's game with an ankle injury. Kane is the 2nd leading scorer for Iowa State with 16.5 points per game. Kane is also the assist leader with 92 assists on the season and leads the team is steals with 22 on the season. Kane also is grabbing a nice 7.3 rebounds per game. We'll play Kansas for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
CBB
Kansas @ Iowa State 9:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#725) Kansas -1
The Kansas Jayhawks travel to Iowa State to take on the Cyclones on Monday night. Kansas is 11-4 SU overall this year while Iowa State comes in with a 14-1 SU overall record on the season. Kansas is scoring 79.1 points per game overall this year, 82.4 points per game their past five games overall and 88 points per game in conference games this year. Kansas is 26-8 SU overall vs Iowa State since 1997 including 4-1 SU the past 3 years. Kansas is 12-1 ATS last 13 games against the Big 12. Kansas is 9-4 ATS last 13 games after a SU win of 20 points or more. Iowa State guard DeAndre Kane is doubtful for tonight's game with an ankle injury. Kane is the 2nd leading scorer for Iowa State with 16.5 points per game. Kane is also the assist leader with 92 assists on the season and leads the team is steals with 22 on the season. Kane also is grabbing a nice 7.3 rebounds per game. We'll play Kansas for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Bulls aim for 6th straight win Monday vs. Wizards
by Zach Cohen
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -3, Total: 181.5
The Bulls will be going for six straight wins when they host the struggling Wizards on Monday night.
Despite dealing with injuries and roster changes, Chicago continues to outwork its opponents, by averaging 44.9 RPG (8th in NBA) while allowing just 91.6 PPG (2nd in league) on 42.6% FG (3rd in NBA). During five straight Bulls victories (SU and ATS), those numbers have improved to 46.6 RPG and 84.4 PPG allowed on 38.9% FG. Although Washington is 2-5 (SU and ATS) in seven games this month, the club is not bad defensively either, giving up only 99.6 PPG (13th in NBA), including 90.7 PPG in its past three road games. The Wizards also average 22.7 APG (10th in NBA) and rank fifth in long-range shooting (38.0% threes). They are also a strong 12-7 ATS (63%) on the road, while Chicago is 9-9 ATS at United Center. While the Bulls are 13-5 SU in this series since 2008-09, Washington is 11-7 ATS in this timeframe, including five straight ATS victories. The Under is 15-3 (83%) during this same five-season stretch. More betting trends favor the Wizards in this game, including their 8-0 ATS mark after playing a home game this season, and 23-10 ATS mark (70%) after scoring 105+ points over the past three seasons. Chicago has thrived in evenly-matched games under the watch of head coach Tom Thibodeau, going 44-28 ATS (61%) when the line is +3 to -3. The lone injury news involves Bulls SG Jimmy Butler (thigh), who is questionable for Monday.
The Wizards have been a subpar offense this season (97.8 PPG) and have really struggled during their 2-5 slump in the 2014 calendar year with a mere 90.6 PPG on 41.5% FG and 31.5% threes. PG John Wall (19.6 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.1 RPG, 2.0 SPG) has really struggled during January, averaging just 17.1 PPG (35% FG) and 6.9 APG. Wall will have a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who are playing Kirk Hinrich and D.J. Augustin at the point guard position. Last season, Wall averaged 21.7 PPG, 6.7 APG and 4.7 RPG in the three meetings with Chicago. SG Bradley Beal (17.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG) scored 18.3 PPG on 45% FG (7-of-13 threes) in his past three road games, but shot terribly in Saturday's 114-107 home loss to the Rockets, making just 4-of-16 shots (0-for-4 threes). Beal was also ice-cold in three meetings against the Bulls last season, scoring just 8.7 PPG on 28% FG and 1-of-10 threes. SF Trevor Ariza (14.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG) could be an X-factor in on Monday as he has two 20-point, 10-rebound efforts in the past three games. Ariza will be going up against a Bulls team that just traded away Luol Deng and could be without Jimmy Butler. This would mean a matchup with Mike Dunleavy at small forward, where Ariza’s athleticism and quickness could pay huge dividends for this slumping Wizards team.
Despite the shutdown defense Chicago has displayed this season, this club is still last in the NBA in scoring (91.4 PPG) and second-worst in shooting (42.3% FG). The Bulls have dealt with the injury to Derrick Rose and the trade of Luol Deng this season, but that has not stopped them from climbing the Eastern Conference standings. PG D.J. Augustin (10.5 PPG, 6.1 APG) has really provided a spark for the Bulls and he will need to continue to play well as he has a matchup with John Wall in this one. Augustin had 20 points and 12 assists in the Bulls’ most recent 103-97 victory over the Bobcats on Saturday. SF Mike Dunleavy (11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) has played well in his role as a starter, averaging 17.5 PPG and 5.0 RPG over the past two games. C Joakim Noah (11.1 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3.7 APG) has been a beast over the course of the Chicago winning streak, averaging 13.6 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 5.6 APG and 2.4 BPG. He is the Bulls’ most consistent player, and has put the team on his back over the past two seasons as they have dealt with a constantly changing lineup. He didn't score much in three games against Washington last season (6.0 PPG on 7-of-17 FG), but Noah was able to contribute 9.7 RPG and 5.3 APG.
by Zach Cohen
Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -3, Total: 181.5
The Bulls will be going for six straight wins when they host the struggling Wizards on Monday night.
Despite dealing with injuries and roster changes, Chicago continues to outwork its opponents, by averaging 44.9 RPG (8th in NBA) while allowing just 91.6 PPG (2nd in league) on 42.6% FG (3rd in NBA). During five straight Bulls victories (SU and ATS), those numbers have improved to 46.6 RPG and 84.4 PPG allowed on 38.9% FG. Although Washington is 2-5 (SU and ATS) in seven games this month, the club is not bad defensively either, giving up only 99.6 PPG (13th in NBA), including 90.7 PPG in its past three road games. The Wizards also average 22.7 APG (10th in NBA) and rank fifth in long-range shooting (38.0% threes). They are also a strong 12-7 ATS (63%) on the road, while Chicago is 9-9 ATS at United Center. While the Bulls are 13-5 SU in this series since 2008-09, Washington is 11-7 ATS in this timeframe, including five straight ATS victories. The Under is 15-3 (83%) during this same five-season stretch. More betting trends favor the Wizards in this game, including their 8-0 ATS mark after playing a home game this season, and 23-10 ATS mark (70%) after scoring 105+ points over the past three seasons. Chicago has thrived in evenly-matched games under the watch of head coach Tom Thibodeau, going 44-28 ATS (61%) when the line is +3 to -3. The lone injury news involves Bulls SG Jimmy Butler (thigh), who is questionable for Monday.
The Wizards have been a subpar offense this season (97.8 PPG) and have really struggled during their 2-5 slump in the 2014 calendar year with a mere 90.6 PPG on 41.5% FG and 31.5% threes. PG John Wall (19.6 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.1 RPG, 2.0 SPG) has really struggled during January, averaging just 17.1 PPG (35% FG) and 6.9 APG. Wall will have a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who are playing Kirk Hinrich and D.J. Augustin at the point guard position. Last season, Wall averaged 21.7 PPG, 6.7 APG and 4.7 RPG in the three meetings with Chicago. SG Bradley Beal (17.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG) scored 18.3 PPG on 45% FG (7-of-13 threes) in his past three road games, but shot terribly in Saturday's 114-107 home loss to the Rockets, making just 4-of-16 shots (0-for-4 threes). Beal was also ice-cold in three meetings against the Bulls last season, scoring just 8.7 PPG on 28% FG and 1-of-10 threes. SF Trevor Ariza (14.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG) could be an X-factor in on Monday as he has two 20-point, 10-rebound efforts in the past three games. Ariza will be going up against a Bulls team that just traded away Luol Deng and could be without Jimmy Butler. This would mean a matchup with Mike Dunleavy at small forward, where Ariza’s athleticism and quickness could pay huge dividends for this slumping Wizards team.
Despite the shutdown defense Chicago has displayed this season, this club is still last in the NBA in scoring (91.4 PPG) and second-worst in shooting (42.3% FG). The Bulls have dealt with the injury to Derrick Rose and the trade of Luol Deng this season, but that has not stopped them from climbing the Eastern Conference standings. PG D.J. Augustin (10.5 PPG, 6.1 APG) has really provided a spark for the Bulls and he will need to continue to play well as he has a matchup with John Wall in this one. Augustin had 20 points and 12 assists in the Bulls’ most recent 103-97 victory over the Bobcats on Saturday. SF Mike Dunleavy (11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) has played well in his role as a starter, averaging 17.5 PPG and 5.0 RPG over the past two games. C Joakim Noah (11.1 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3.7 APG) has been a beast over the course of the Chicago winning streak, averaging 13.6 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 5.6 APG and 2.4 BPG. He is the Bulls’ most consistent player, and has put the team on his back over the past two seasons as they have dealt with a constantly changing lineup. He didn't score much in three games against Washington last season (6.0 PPG on 7-of-17 FG), but Noah was able to contribute 9.7 RPG and 5.3 APG.
