Service Plays Friday 7/18/14

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Tampa Bay @ MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay -1 +100 over MINNESOTA

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
Kyle Gibson has become an elite command + groundball pitcher. His 55% groundball rate and just 29 walks in 101 innings confirm that. However, Gibson’s marginal 60% first pitch strike % suggests that his pinpoint control won't last. Gibson has just 53 K’s in those 101 innings, which is a huge wart in any starting pitcher’s profile. In two of his last four starts, Gibson failed to record an out past the second inning and was yanked both times after allowing 13 runs in a combined four innings. He’s had some solid outings but he’s also has a career WHIP of 1.42, a career BAA of .278 and a career ERA of 4.80.
This is potentially a season defining stretch for the Rays. They made a bit of a move the past month and leapfrogged over the Red Sox out of last place in the AL East. Tampa now sits just 4½ games back of the Yanks and just 5½ back of the Blue Jays but they have a great opportunity to make up ground against the first place Orioles. Baltimore is in Oakland this weekend and they’ll travel to Anaheim and Seattle following this series. That’s a 10-game road stretch for the O’s against three teams that are playing very well. If the Rays are to make any noise whatsoever, it has to start here and surely they’re aware. Although an oblique injury has abbreviated his season so far, Alex Cobb has put to rest any lingering uncertainty that his performance would be altered by 2013's terrifying concussion. Quite simply, he's emerged as one of more dominant and consistent starters in the league. Over his last six starts, Cobb has 34 K’s in 35 innings to go along with a sick 64% groundball rate. Over that same stretch is lien drive rate was 10%. Cobb’s 64% groundball rate and 10% line-drive rate over the last six starts are both the highest marks of any starter in the game. Alex Cobb did not make the All-Star team but he is without question the best pitcher to have missed it because he’s missed time this year he is far under the radar. Put him on your radar now.
Our Pick

Tampa Bay -1 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)


Chicago @ ARIZONA
Chicago +118 over ARIZONA

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
Eight MLB teams in eleven years for Edwin Jackson. Why he's often in demand: High IP totals; solid health grade; solid hr/9. Why he's often deemed expendable: ERA swings; .467 lifetime win%; game-to-game volatility. That said, Jackson was one of the NL's most skilled starters in May with 10.7 K’s per nine with a 72% first pitch strike rate. His 4.30 ERA was the product of an unlucky 36% hit rate more than anything else. The few extra days rest figures to serve him well but this wager has little to do with backing Jackson. This one is all about fading Trevor Cahill.
Cahill began the season in the Diamondbacks rotation but was moved to the pen after losses in his first four starts. He was sent to the minors in mid-June to be stretched out and he'll be recalled to start against the Cubs here. He has not pitched well in Chase Field with a 0-4 record and a 7.71 ERA. Cahill's last start at AAA Reno was not a good one, as he allowed 4 earned runs, 5 hits, and 5 walks in 4 innings. In fact, Cahill labored through his six starts at AAA-Reno and was beset with the same lack of command that plagued him in Phoenix. All told, Cahill has logged 72 innings and has allowed 115 base-runners, 45 of them via walks. Some good news? Last year he led the NL with 17 wild pitches; this year he has zero. That tidbit is not nearly incentive enough to recommend him as the chalk against anyone.


Our Pick
Chicago +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)
 

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Hamilton @ CALGARY
CALGARY -9 -110 over Hamilton

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
Now what? After a terrible start to the season, which is traditionally every year, the “rebuilding” Tiger-Cats will play their third game in a row on the road, all on the West Coast no less, but this time it’ll be with a first-time starting QB in Jeremiah Masoli. Masoli has five completions in 15 attempts this season with one pick in relief of Zach Collaros. Masoli is a guy that lost out for the starting job to a QB that has been largely unproductive with just 212 yards and two picks in two games. And if the tough start and the new starting quarterback weren't enough of a challenge, the Ticats have some pretty serious injury woes as well. The latest casualty in an already lengthy list is weak side linebacker and leading tackler Simoni Lawrence, who was injured on Wednesday and has been ruled out for this game. Add the injury to strong side linebacker Rico Murray and the insertion of new middle man Taylor Reed and the Ticats are rolling out an entirely new linebacking corps this week, not to mention an offensive tackle that was signed by the team less than a week ago. Hamilton replaces weak offensive and defensive lines with weaker players. This is a dreadful offense that the Ti-Cats employ and their defense is even worse.
The only danger for the Stampeders here is taking the Tiger-Cats too lightly. If Calgary does not suffer that sort of doom they figure to destroy the ‘Cats. Calgary is 2-0. They made both Montreal and Toronto look like little boys in two dominating performances. Combined, the Stamps have allowed the opposition to score a measly 23 points and seven of those points came on the games’ final play against Montreal. A meaningless seven it was and it was also the only TD the defense has surrendered this season. Calgary has a huge edge defensively. That brings us to the offense and Bo Levi Mitchell. After throwing for 267 yards and a career-high four touchdowns in last week's win in Toronto, Mitchell now has 580 yards (on 65.8 percent completions) with six touchdowns in two games paired and no interceptions. His 146.6 QB rating is the tops in the league and he is now 5-0 to start his CFL career. Furthermore, the Stamps have defeated the Ti-Cats nine straight at McMahon Stadium and this one might be the easiest of them all. Stamps roll and we suggest getting on this one ASAP because the line figures to move up.


Our Pick
CALGARY -9 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)


Toronto @ OTTAWA
OTTAWA +108 over Toronto
BEST LINE: Bet365 -9 -110
Posted at 12:00 PM EST
The Argonauts lone win in three starts, a 48-15 blowout victory over the defending champs Saskatchewan Roughriders, looks pretty good on paper but it’s an overly flattering score to the Argos. Saskatchewan turned the ball over three times. The Riders averaged nearly 8 yards per carry over the entire game and they racked up 447 yards of total offense. They were also in a huge letdown spot after their ceremonial Grey Cup presentation to open the season against the dreadful Tiger-Cats. The Argos have been destroyed twice, in Winnipeg and at home to the Stampeders. Toronto’s defense can’t stop the marching band, as they have been completely shredded in all three games, allowing 445 yards or more in all three. Offensively, the Argos figure to score some points but their two best offensive players (aside from their QB), Chad Owens and Andre Durie are both out. Incidentally, Toronto’s offense has been nauseating in two of its three games.
Pay absolutely no attention to the Redblacks loss last week against the now 4-0 Edmonton Eskimos, as it was sandwiched between their first ever game in Winnipeg to open the year and this week’s home opener in Ottawa. The Redblacks are now 0-2 but the two clubs they lost to are a combined 7-1. In its opener in Winnipeg, Ottawa came out super-charged up and built a 14-0 lead. They hung around the entire game, led for a large portion of it and ended up losing it late. The Redblacks proved to themselves that they belong in the league and that they can move the chains. Tonight, TD place will be rocking. There is not a ticket to be had anywhere. The atmosphere will be electric and the players will feed off of it. If you thought the Redbalcks were fired up in their first game, times that by 10 for this one. A win here and the fans will be celebrating in the streets. Yeah, it’s only game three for the Redblacks but this is their Grey Cup game and they’ll be ready. Henry Burris is very capable of a big game against a pathetic Toronto defense. Ottawa has led both their games on the road at halftime. They gave Winnipeg a scare and in a subsequent lethargic performance they gave the Eskies a scare. The Redblacks “we’re not an expansion team” preach has plenty of merit. Frankly, Ottawa could not have handpicked a team that is the more likely to cater to their party than the Argonauts.


Our Pick
OTTAWA +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)
 
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AJ's Sports Plays

Mil/Was Under 7 -101
Lad/Stl Over 7.5 -109
Chc/Ari Over 9 +100
Nym/Sd Under 6.5 -110
Kc/Bos Under 8 -112
 
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Sheep

OVER 8.5 Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers

OVER 7.5 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals

OVER 4 1st 5 Innings Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals

Detroit Tigers -165 1st 5 Innings
 
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NonStopSportsPicks

2* Red Sox/Royals Under 8 -115

In this one, we're getting some VALUE because of the perception and ERA of Buckholtz. And I cannot argue what he DID to start the season. But where we're getting value is by looking at "what have you done for me lately". And he's given some solid starts, including a complete game in his last one. Normally, we would stay away after a complete game but due to the rest and you HAVE to think that Boston comes out of the 2H with all they've got as management says that they're NOT ready to mail in the season yet. Thin ice for the Red Sox, but they'll try. On the opposite side, Shields is in a nice groove and shouldn't have any problems holding down the Red Sox to a few runs or less.
 
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SportsCashSystem

extra bonus system for today:

Colorado Rockies / Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7½ (Bet Level 2) (Total Runs Scored Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:05 PM EST
 
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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | TEXAS at TORONTO
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL)
158-123 since 1997. ( 56.2% | 64.8 units )
13-14 this year. ( 48.1% | 1.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | BALTIMORE at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 45-24 (+27.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.0) , OPPONENT (3.4)
 

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LV White Shark

100 Yankees -130
100 Cleveland +131
100 Colorado Over 7.5
100 Tampa Bay

CFL
100 Ottowa +1
 

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