MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
LAS VEGAS -- The Pittsburgh Pirates had an opportunity to take a giant step forward the week before the All-Star break while the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers were begging someone to overtake them, but they proceeded to lose five of seven at St. Louis and Cincinnati and still remained only 3.5 games back. As the MLB season resumes Friday, they’ll play the Colorado Rockies at home, beginning a stretch of five of seven series against losing teams.
This stretch is almost a do-or-die situation for the Pirates – they have to take advantage of getting Colorado for seven games, Arizona for four, Miami and San Diego for three each, intertwined with three-game series against the Dodgers and Giants. If they don’t gain some serious ground, which means taking over the NL Central within this time frame, their chances at a division title may be seriously hampered, as they won’t play another losing team until a three-game set at Wrigley Field begins on September 5.
As much as I feel the Bucs will have success over this stretch, I’m not too confident behind Francisco Liriano (1-7, 4.72 ERA) tonight. It’s not just Liriano’s lack of success – before and after his recent stint on the disabled list – it’s also because Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa (10-6, 4.56 ERA) has been on a major tear, at least in Rockies’ terms.
The Pirates have won nine of their past 11 games at PNC Park and 21 of their last 31, but Liriano hasn’t contributed to any of those wins. They’ve lost Liriano’s last three starts and five of his past six. It‘s fair to note that run support hasn’t been there for him, with an average of only 2.3 runs scored over his last six starts.
He went only four innings in his last start on Sunday, his first since coming off the DL. He gave up three runs in that outing, and most of the damage came via six walks. That’s bad news the Pirates, but the perfect recipe for an OVER tonight in Pittsburgh. Liriano goes OVER at home (8-1-2 in last 11) even when he‘s good. Right now, when they need him more than ever, he’s not very good.
Also, Pittsburgh has gone OVER in its last four games.
This will be the first meeting between the two teams this season, but tonight’s starters met last year at Coors Field. De La Rosa got the 10-1 win, which of course went OVER the total of 9 runs. De La Rosa was getting +127 in that contest against a version of Liriano that might have been his best ever. Tonight, Liriano is a massive -148 favorite with the total set at 7.5.
De La Rosa has won his past four starts, boosted by an average of 8.5 runs of support. While the break may have cooled De La Rosa off a bit, there is still way more upside supporting him as a big dog tonight than hoping Liriano miraculously returns to his 2013 form that helped the Bucs to their first postseason since 1992.
If Liriano does fail tonight, it should be a sign that new blood in the rotation is required to take advantage of the soft upcoming schedule. The Bucs have plenty of prime prospects in their organization to make a deal for Boston’s Jon Lester.
The plays tonight are Colorado and the OVER.
Friday Selections:
Rockies (De La Rosa) +138 at Pirates, 7:05 p.m. ET
Rockies/Pirates OVER 7.5 (-110)
Cardinals (Lynn) -125 vs. Dodgers , 8:15 p.m. ET
Orioles (Tillman) +150 at A’s, 10:05 p.m. ET
Orioles/A’s UNDER 7.5 (-120)
Mets/Padres UNDER 6.5 (-120), 10:10 p.m. ET
Here’s a look at some of baseball’s best from the first-half of the season in the betting world:
Best Money Teams: Oakland (+14 units), Angels (+13.6), Baltimore (+12.8), Seattle (+7), Cincinnati (+5.8), Minnesota (+5.7), White Sox (+5.6)
Best Starting Pitcher Earners: Alfredo Simon (+13.2 units), Phil Hughes (+10.3), Garrett Richards (+10.1), Scott Kazmir (+9.5), Adam Wainwright (+9.2), Rick Purcell (+8.3), Danny Keuchel (+8)
Best Teams vs. Lefties: Oakland (18-8), Detroit (20-10), Seattle 21-12
Best OVER Teams: Miami (54-34-6), Colorado (49-38-8), Angels (50-39-5), Detroit (48-38-5), Texas (49-40-6)
Best UNDER Teams: San Diego (29-62-4), Boston (38-54-3), Atlanta (38-53-4), Seattle (39-52-4)