STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
FRIDAY, JULY 18TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#965 TEXAS @ #966 TORONTO - 7:05 PM
•Rangers RH Yu Darvish (8-5, 2.97 ERA, WHIP: 1.214) - Darvish took his third setback in the last four decisions after enduring one of his worst starts of the season in a July 9 home loss to the Houston Astros. The three-time All-Star was tagged for six earned runs on 10 hits – both season highs – over six frames and has surrendered at least four runs in five of his last seven outings after doing so only once in his first 10. Darvish was saddled with the loss after allowing two runs over eight innings despite fanning 11 Blue Jays on May 16, falling to 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA in six all-time starts against Toronto.
--KEY STAT: DARVISH is 11-24 against the run line (-15.0 Units) versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DARVISH 3.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
--DARVISH is 13-3 UNDER (+9.6 Units) against American League East opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DARVISH 3.6, OPPONENT 2.6.
•Blue Jays RH R.A. Dickey (7-9, 3.82 ERA, WHIP: 1.320) - The 39-year-old Dickey was unable to mount his first winning streak since May 24-June 4 after losing for the fifth time in his last six turns in Sunday’s 3-0 defeat versus the Tampa Bay Rays. The 2012 National League Cy Young Award winner, who yielded two runs on five hits over six innings, is 1-2 in three July outings despite a 1.71 ERA. Dickey lost to the Rangers for the first time in his career on May 18, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 1/3 innings to fall to 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA in six appearances (three starts) against them.
--KEY STAT: DICKEY is 14-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DICKEY 5.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
--DICKEY is 33-16 UNDER (+14.8 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DICKEY 3.3, OPPONENT 3.0.
#967 CLEVELAND @ #968 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•Indians RH Trevor Bauer (3-4, 3.84 ERA, WHIP: 1.418) - Bauer is making his second straight start after recording a career-high 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the White Sox on Sunday. The 23-year-old has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last four outings and has pitched into the seventh frame in five of the last six. Bauer was reached for four runs in 6 1/3 innings by the Tigers on June 21, surrendering solo home runs to Victor Martinez, Rajai Davis and Ian Kinsler.
•Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.04 ERA, WHIP: 1.035) - Sanchez was pounded for seven runs in 5 2/3 innings to suffer a loss against Tampa Bay on July 5 but bounced back at Kansas City in his last start. The veteran, who issued four free passes against the Rays, did not walk a batter while allowing one run in seven frames to defeat the Royals. Sanchez struck out eight against Cleveland on April 16 but lasted only five innings and suffered a loss after yielding three runs - two earned - on two hits and four walks.
--KEY STAT: SANCHEZ is 10-21 (-19.9 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.3, OPPONENT 4.0.
--SANCHEZ is 12-3 against the run line (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing on Friday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 6.1, OPPONENT 2.9.
--SANCHEZ is 13-4 OVER (+9.0 Units) in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 5.8, OPPONENT 3.9.
--SANCHEZ is 13-4 OVER (+8.7 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 6.0, OPPONENT 3.7.
#969 KANSAS CITY @ #970 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Royals RH James Shields (9-5, 3.65 ERA, WHIP: 1.270) - Shields was sharp in his last two starts, allowing two runs and 10 hits while striking out 18 and walking one in 14 total innings. The veteran did not get enough run support to record a win against Detroit on Saturday and has only one victory in his last five turns. Shields, who has plenty of experience against Boston from his time in the AL East with Tampa Bay, is 9-13 with a 4.36 ERA in 25 career starts against the Red Sox.
--KEY STAT: SHIELDS is 15-2 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.5, OPPONENT 2.2.
--SHIELDS is 16-4 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.4.
--SHIELDS is 14-2 against the run line (+14.5 Units) on the road when the run line is (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.4, OPPONENT 2.8.
--SHIELDS is 15-32 against the run line (-19.3 Units) in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
--SHIELDS is 8-0 OVER (+8.5 Units) versus terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 6.0, OPPONENT 5.5.
•Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (4-5, 5.42 ERA, WHIP: 1.507) - Buchholz is coming off by far his best start of the season on Sunday, when he struck out 12 and did not walk a batter while yielding three hits in nine scoreless innings at Houston. The 29-year-old has been much stronger in four starts since coming off the disabled list, issuing only one walk in that span. Buchholz is 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five career starts against Kansas City.
--KEY STAT: BUCHHOLZ is 12-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUCHHOLZ 5.3, OPPONENT 3.4.
#971 TAMPA BAY @ #972 MINNESOTA - 8:10 PM
•Rays RH Alex Cobb (4-6, 4.14 ERA, WHIP: 1.250) - Cobb was on his way to his third straight win before the bullpen let him down in his last outing. The 26-year-old allowed two runs and struck out seven in 6 2/3 innings versus Kansas City on July 9, but the Royals rallied for a 5-4 victory. Cobb looks to continue his good fortune on the road and vies to win his fourth straight start away from home.
--KEY STAT: COBB is 24-11 UNDER (+11.2 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COBB 4.1, OPPONENT 3.1.
•Twins RH Kyle Gibson (8-7, 3.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.248) - Gibson has also recorded strong outings on the road, including his last trip to the mound after scattering seven hits over six scoreless innings in an 8-1 triumph in Seattle on July 9. The 26-year-old has struggled versus Tampa Bay, losing both decisions in lopsided fashion. Gibson permitted seven runs on 10 hits in three innings en route to a 7-3 setback to the Rays on April 22.
--KEY STAT: GIBSON is 14-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.3.
--GIBSON is 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 7.0, OPPONENT 5.2.
--GIBSON is 8-0 OVER (+8.1 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GIBSON 6.6, OPPONENT 5.5.
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#973 HOUSTON @ #974 CHI WHITE SOX - 8:10 PM
•Astros RH Scott Feldman (4-6, 4.33 ERA, WHIP: 1.366) - Feldman ended his first half on a sour note, surrendering seven runs and 11 hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Boston last Friday. The setback ended a six-start stretch during which the 31-year-old allowed three earned runs or fewer but went just 1-2. Feldman has pitched well against Chicago over his career, going 5-2 with a 3.60 ERA in 16 games (10 starts).
--KEY STAT: FELDMAN is 14-6 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.5.
--FELDMAN is 11-23 (-17.8 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 4.1, OPPONENT 5.1.
--FELDMAN is 30-48 (-25.7 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was FELDMAN 4.4, OPPONENT 5.1.
•White Sox LH Jose Quintana (5-7, 3.24 ERA, WHIP: 1.198) - Quintana is riding a five-start unbeaten streak during which he has allowed a total of six runs over 35 2/3 innings but has recorded only two victories. The 25-year-old Colombian, who hasn't lost since June 13 against Kansas City, followed two scoreless outings by yielding three runs over seven frames in a no-decision at Boston on July 10. Quintana won his first career decision against the Astros on May 16, when he gave up two runs in five innings at Houston.
--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 19-3 UNDER (+15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.3, OPPONENT 3.1.
--QUINTANA is 20-7 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.4, OPPONENT 3.6.
#975 SEATTLE @ #976 LA ANGELS - 10:05 PM
•Mariners LH Hisashi Iwakuma (8-4, 2.98 ERA, WHIP: 1.003) - Iwakuma entered the All-Star break on a hot streak, going 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA over his last three starts with 25 strikeouts and no walks. The 33-year-old, who is 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against the Angels, said he’s fully healthy after dealing with several injuries early in the season. “I feel great right now," Iwakuma told MLB.com. “I feel like the momentum is there. I feel like I can start off the second half the same way. Hopefully I can keep this going.”
--KEY STAT: IWAKUMA is 20-10 (+13.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.3, OPPONENT 3.4.
•Angels RH Jered Weaver (10-6, 3.45 ERA, WHIP: 1.133) - After being limited to two innings in his previous start due to lower back tightness, Weaver gave himself a clean bill of health after tossing seven strong frames against Texas last Saturday. “Everything felt great,” Weaver told reporters. “I didn't feel restricted or worried about it. It’s nice to come out of it unscathed.” Justin Smoak is 9-for-31 with three homers against the 31-year-old, who is 14-9 with a 3.30 ERA in 29 career starts against Seattle.
--KEY STAT: WEAVER is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 6.1, OPPONENT 2.1.
--WEAVER is 40-18 UNDER (+19.4 Units) in home games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 4.5, OPPONENT 2.7.
--WEAVER is 37-15 UNDER (+19.9 Units) versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.7, OPPONENT 3.2.
--WEAVER is 33-12 UNDER (+19.3 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.9, OPPONENT 3.1.
--WEAVER is 37-12 UNDER (+23.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.6, OPPONENT 3.2.
#977 BALTIMORE @ #978 OAKLAND - 10:05 PM
•Orioles RH Chris Tillman (7-4, 4.21 ERA, WHIP: 1.386) - Tillman has delivered quality starts in six of his last seven turns but is only 2-3 in that span and is winless in his past three outings after giving up three runs in 6 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees on Saturday. Tillman has yet to lose on the road this seasons, going 6-0 in 11 starts despite a bloated 5.20 ERA. He is 1-0 in three career starts against the Athletics and held them to three runs in 14 innings last year.
--KEY STAT: TILLMAN is 7-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 6.7, OPPONENT 2.9.
--TILLMAN is 13-5 (+15.8 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.8, OPPONENT 3.8.
--TILLMAN is 10-1 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 6.0, OPPONENT 2.9.
--TILLMAN is 21-6 against the run line (+17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
--TILLMAN is 14-2 against the run line (+12.8 Units) in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TILLMAN 6.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
•Athletics RH Jeff Samardzija (3-8, 2.78 ERA, WHIP: 1.138) - Samardzija couldn't buy a win with the Chicago Cubs, going 0-4 in his first 10 starts of the season despite permitting three earned runs or fewer in each. He won his first start with Oakland by giving up one run over seven innings, but took the loss last time out at Seattle after giving up three runs over eight innings. He has never faced Oakland but Nick Hundley, Steve Pearce and J.J. Hardy are a combined 2-for-15 against him.
--KEY STAT: SAMARDZIJA is 8-21 (-12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.9, OPPONENT 4.5.
--SAMARDZIJA is 2-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 1.9, OPPONENT 4.9.
--SAMARDZIJA is 8-21 (-13.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 3.4, OPPONENT 4.6.
--SAMARDZIJA is 3-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.5, OPPONENT 4.4.
--SAMARDZIJA is 4-19 (-15.6 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 2.6, OPPONENT 4.2.
Interleague
979 CINCINNATI @ #980 NY YANKEES - 7:05 PM
•Reds RH Mike Leake (7-7, 3.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.236) - After winning four of his previous five starts, Leake stumbled in his last trip to the mound as he allowed four runs in six innings to take a no-decision against Pittsburgh. The 26-year-old has been nothing if not consistent as he has worked at least five innings in all 19 starts this season. Leake struggled in his lone career outing versus the Yankees, permitting four runs in six innings en route to a 4-2 loss on June 22, 2011.
--KEY STAT: LEAKE is 22-3 against the run line (+16.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEAKE 5.5, OPPONENT 4.1.
•Yankees RH David Phelps (3-4, 3.94 ERA, WHIP: 1.371) - Phelps collected his fourth consecutive no-decision despite allowing two runs in six hits against Cleveland on July 10. The 27-year-old has pitched well in his last six outings, posting a 2-0 mark while permitting just 13 earned runs and 30 hits in 37 1/3 innings. With four-fifths of the team's Opening Day starting rotation sidelined, Phelps has pitched in by working at least six innings in seven of his last 10 outings.
--KEY STAT: PHELPS is 1-10 (-8.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was PHELPS 3.1, OPPONENT 5.4.
--PHELPS is 1-13 against the run line (-14.3 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PHELPS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6.
--PHELPS is 5-17 against the run line (-14.3 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PHELPS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.1.
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