MONEYMAKER
BEST BETS
19-16 ON THE YR
CINCINNATI -7’ OVER SOUTH FLORIDA (FRIDAY)
Both teams are 3-3 SU, but Cincinnati is in a 4-way tie for the Big East lead with a 1-0 conference mark. South Florida has dropped both of their Big East games this season but a victory here could put them back into the chase. The Bulls produced a winning record last season but the year ended in controversy after head coach Jim Leavitt was
fired due to allegations of player abuse. They did a great job finding a replacement, hiring Skip Holtz to take over head coaching duties. Holtz has some work to do in rebuilding this team, though he’s got some talent with which to work.
The offense lost the entire wide receiver corps though returned QB B.J. Daniels, the entire offensive line and 3 of their 4 running backs. Despite this favorable situation, the offense has struggled somewhat with the new receivers and Daniels being badly out of sync. Daniels has only 4 TD passes against 10 interceptions, and the team hasn’t scored a touchdown in two Big East games. On the other hand, the Bulls’ defense has been better than expected for a unit returning only 5 starters and 2 linemen.
Not counting a huge class difference in their matchup against Florida, they’ve held their remaining 5 opponents to 20 points or less. Throw out the game against the Gators and they’re allowing a stingy 12.4 points per game. They held their two Big East opponents to date to a total of 33 points but only scored 15 points with no touchdowns. That’s a
problem. Cincinnati was bracing for a ‘down year’ after losing their best offensive players from last year—QB Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard—to the NFL. The transition was made even more difficult when coach Brian Kelly took the vacant Notre Dame coaching job, but Butch Jones hasn’t missed a beat as his replacement. The offense hasn’t been as dynamic, but like the rest of the team appears to be rounding into form as the season progresses. Despite a 3-3 SU record, none of the losses are ‘bad’ ones with two tricky road games (Fresno State, NC State) and a solid effort in a 2 point loss to Oklahoma. South Florida has been a bad pointspread investment in recent years, a trend that is continuing in 2010. Since 2008, the Bulls are 11-17 ATS overall including 5-9 on the road and 6-10 in Big East play. The Bearcats are right around breakeven
in most pointspread categories with one exception—they’re 10-5 ATS against Big East opponents since 2008. They’ve also dominated head to head play in the series, winning 6of 7 SU going 5-2 against the spread. We respect South Florida’s defense, but without much in the way of production from the offense we look for the Bearcats to win and
cover here.
CINCINNATI OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY 14