Service Plays Friday 10/22/10

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DCI NHL

Season: 22-23 (.489)

COLUMBUS 3, Calgary 2
BUFFALO 3, Ottawa 2
Tampa Bay vs. ATLANTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Chicago vs. ST. LOUIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VANCOUVER 4, Minnesota 3
 
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Stat/systems report 10/22

STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/22
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________


***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH -- CFB *****
============================================


*** SOUTH FLORIDA @ CINCINNATI
Friday, October 22nd, 8:00 PM ET
==========================
Two teams moving in opposite directions clash at Nippert Stadium as the South Florida Bulls tussle with the Cincinnati Bearcats in Big East play. The Bulls enter the contest in need of a victory, as they have dropped each of their last two outings, both against Big East members. After suffering a surprising 13-9 setback at home to Syracuse, USF was topped 20-6 by nationally-ranked West Virginia last Thursday. The team now sits at an even 3-3 overall and still has a difficult road ahead.

The Bearcats, meanwhile, opened defense of their Big East title with a 35-27 victory over Louisville exactly a week ago. Cincinnati, which has actually captured the last two conference championships, has now won 13 consecutive Big East games dating back to 2008. Overall, the squad has won two in row to pull to a level 3-3 on the year. Cincinnati owns a 5-2 edge in the all-time series with USF and the Bearcats have won the past four meetings, including a 34-17 decision last season.

The offense for USF continues to struggle, as the unit managed only 202 total yards in a loss to WVU last week. QB BJ Daniels is a big reason for this unit's lack of success, as he has yet to prove capable. The versatile gunslinger passed for just 119 yards with three INTs last week, and he has now tossed 10 picks against four TDs on the season. That obviously isn't a good ratio and if Daniels continues to the turn the ball over, don't be surprised to see him replaced. The ground attack has churned out an average of 157.7 ypg to help Daniels, but last week USF managed only 65 rushing yards on 29 carries. Moise Plancher had 63 of those yards on 11 carries, raising his total to a team-high 352 yards for the season.

The defense has clearly been the strength of USF this season and the unit turned in another strong effort last week despite the outcome. The Bulls held WVU's potent attack to just 298 total yards, including only 79 rushing on 33 carries. USF is permitting just 300.5 total ypg, so last week's effort was right in line with what the defense has done all season long. The defense added three sacks to bring its total to 17 for the year, but the unit failed to force WVU into a single turnover and that was a disappointment. Devekeyan Lattimore paced the Bulls with 11 stops and his first sack, and he now ranks second on the team with 30 tackles for the year.

The Bearcats are really finding their rhythm on offense, as they rolled up 453 total yards in a victory over Louisville this past week. QB Zach Collaros threw a career-best five TDs passes, including three to Armon Binns, and he finished with 275 yards and two picks on 18-of-28 pass attempts. It was another strong performance from Collaros, who is one of the top QBs in the league with 17 TDs against just three INTs for the season. Binns, who ended with eight catches for 175 yards, now has 32 receptions for 525 yards and seven scores for the season. DJ Woods is another explosive weapon for the Bearcats and he tops the roster with 550 receiving yards, while ranking second with 31 catches and six TDs. He hauled in a pair of TDs versus Louisville last week, but left with a concussion in the third quarter. He is listed as questionable for this weekend. The ground game was also effective against Louisville, as Isaiah Pead ran for 145 yards on just 21 carries. Pead has now rushed for 547 yards behind an impressive 8.8 yard per carry average, helping the Bearcats to rush for 178.5 ypg as a team.

Cincinnati had one of the top ranked run defenses around heading into last week's matchup, but the unit was gashed for 228 yards and two scores on the ground by Louisville. It was quite a surprising result and despite the numerous yards allowed, the Bearcats are still permitting just 108.7 rushing ypg for the season. The defense gave up another 179 yards through the air to Louisville and failed to force a single turnover. Those are two areas of concern for the Bearcats, who have recorded a mere five takeaways, while surrendering 257.3 passing ypg this season. JK Schaffer has been this unit's top player with 56 stops to his credit and that includes a seven-tackle performance last game.

*STAN'S FORECASTER – Cincinnati by 11.6; O/U 41
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Cincinnati -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Cincinnati by 13.7
_________________________________________________

• TOP RATED TRENDS
-------------------------------------
--S FLORIDA is 10-0 against the 1rst half line (+10.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 18.6, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--S FLORIDA is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 8.4, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--S FLORIDA is 7-22 against the 1rst half line (-17.2 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 6.3, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 3*)

--CINCINNATI is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) when the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 16.9, OPPONENT 7.6 - (Rating = 3*)

--S FLORIDA is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 16.1, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 2*)

--CINCINNATI is 19-5 UNDER (+13.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 24.9, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 2*)

• HIGHEST RATED MONEY LINE SUPER SITUATIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.3
The average score in these games was: Team 30.2, Opponent 19.8 (Average point differential = +10.5)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2, +10.9 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (32-16, +6.9 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (46-25, +8.1 units).

--PLAY AGAINST - A road team vs. the money line (S FLORIDA) - a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against an average defensive team (21 to 28 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game.
(20-5 since 1992.) (80%, +19 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +120.2
The average score in these games was: Team 29, Opponent 17.7 (Average point differential = +11.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +2.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +4.8 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3, +4.8 units).

--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning.
(27-7 since 1992.) (79.4%, +20.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +103.3
The average score in these games was: Team 41.4, Opponent 20.7 (Average point differential = +20.7)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2, +4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +10 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +8.8 units).

• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (S FLORIDA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.
(28-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (17-19 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average score in these games was: Team 24.4, Opponent 23.6 (Average point differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (50% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (43-21).

--PLAY AGAINST - Any team (CINCINNATI) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.
(37-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (19-34 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.6
The average score in these games was: Team 24.8, Opponent 28 (Average point differential = -3.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (44.2% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-9).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (53-23).
__________________________________________________ _

• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in October games.
(34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46
The average score in these games was: Team 22.7, Opponent 17.1 (Total points scored = 39.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (48.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-31).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (67-47).

--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 45.8
The average score in these games was: Team 19.4, Opponent 20.3 (Total points scored = 39.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (48.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (57-27).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (67-42).
 
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Ben lee lost on Thursday with the Giants Pk/Phillies.

For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes the Yankees Pk/Rangers.

"Mr Chalk" is 7-8 -$290 for the 2010 MLB playoffs.
 
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Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play New York Yankees (-115) over Texas

Texas has lost 3 of the last 4 games when attempting to close out a playoff series and they have also lost 6 of the last 9 games as a home underdog of +100 or higher. Colby Lewis has lost 13 of the last 16 games when playing with five or six days of rest and he has also lost 11 of the last 16 games coming off a loss.


NHL Hockey

25* Play Vancouver (-185) over Minnesota
 
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NHL DUNKEL

Calgary at Columbus
The Flames look to take advantage of a Columbus team that is 1-4 in its last 5 home games. Calgary is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game 51-52: Calgary at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.819; Columbus 10.380
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+115); Over

Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.585; Atlanta 11.617
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under

Game 55-56: Ottawa at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.643; Buffalo 10.760
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+120); Under

Game 57-58: Chicago at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.372; St. Louis 13.084
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over

Game 59-60: Minnesota at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.596; Vancouver 11.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-185); Over
 
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Friday, October 22

Hot Teams
-- Columbus won three of its last four games.
-- Lightning won two of first three road games.
-- Blackhawks won last four games, allowing eight goals.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Calgary is 3-3, scoring two or less goals in four of six games.
-- Thrashers are off to 3-3 start; 3-0 if they score 4+goals, 0-3 if not.
-- Sabres lost five of their last six games; Senators are off to a 1-5 start.
-- Blues lost their last three games, scoring seven goals.
-- Canucks lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Four of six Calgary games, four of five Columbus games stayed under the total.
-- Both Atlanta home games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Buffalo games stayed under the total.
-- All three Chicago road games went over the total.
-- Last six Minnesota-Vancouver games went over the total.

Series Records
-- Flames lost four of last five visits to Columbus.
-- Lightning won their last six games against Atlanta.
-- Senators won nine of their last ten games against Buffalo.
-- Blackhawks won six of last eight games against St Louis.
-- Home side won last five Mionnesota-Vancouver games; Wild lost last four visits to British Columbia.
 
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MLB DUNKEL

NY Yankees at Texas
The Rangers look to wrap up the series and take advantage of New York's 1-4 record in Philip Hughes' last 5 road starts. Texas is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 22

Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.023; Texas (Lewis) 16.956
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under
 

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Hey for what it's worth, Mike Greenberg from 'Mike and Mike' in the morning on ESPN radio has a 1-10-1 record picking thier stone cold lead pipe locks. This Sunday he likes KC -4 1/2 and Chi -3.
 

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These folks have 10 plays going on Saturday in their "Action Package" if anyone gets them , please post.They are 53-26 on Year on these plays and were getting posted here pretty regularly earlier in year.

LPW Sports Forecast NHL - Columbus Under (5) (+105)
 
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TEDDY COVERS

ALCS FRIDAY
NY Yankees

SATURDAY BIG TICKET BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK
20* Georgia Bulldogs

BIG 10 TV SMACKDOWN
Iowa Hawkeyes

WAKE UP AND WIN EARLY START SHOCKER
Rutgers Scarlet Knights

TREMENDOUS TRIFECTA
Colorado State Rams
North Carolina Tar Heels
Baylor Bears


SUNDAY BIG TICKET BLOWOUT
20* Seattle Seahawks

EARLY START ANNIHILATOR
KC Chiefs

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN
Green Bay Packers
 
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SUPER SPORTS GROUP

NY v. Texas 8:10pm
PICK: UNDER 9 Game ev (9*) BEST BET OF THE DAY
PICK: Rangers ML ev (6*)
 

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