Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion
TOLEDO 30 Colorado (-4.0) 28
06:00 PM Pacific, 11-Sep-09
Both of these teams were beaten pretty soundly last week, as the Rockets lost on the road 31-52 at Purdue while Colorado was upset 17-23 by Colorado State as a 10 1/2 point home favorite in a game that really wasn't that close (the Buffs were out-gained 4.1 yards per play to 6.0 yppl). Colorado looks as dismal on offense this season as they were last year (0.9 yppl worse than average) and the Buffaloes' rebuilt defense (4 returning starters) was exploited with numerous big plays by the Rams, who took advantage of two young Colorado safeties to average 20.8 yards per completion. Toledo's 4th year starting quarterback Aaron Opelt should have pretty good passing stats against that Buffs secondary after throwing for 423 yards at a solid 6.3 yards per pass play on 67 pass plays against a good Purdue secondary last week. The absence of last year's leading rusher Morgan Williams (suspended for 2 games) isn't that big of a deal considering that Toledo threw the ball nearly 80% of the time last week and will probably do so again tonight. Toledo's defense was a huge problem, allowing 535 yards at 8.0 yppl to the Boilermakers, so it appears that the Rockets are having a tough time grasping the new defensive scheme. However, Colorado doesn't appear to be able to fully take advantage of that defense like Purdue did last week. My ratings favor Colorado by 2 points and the Buffaloes apply to a negative 35-83-7 ATS scheduling situation. Toledo, meanwhile, tends to play much better at home than they do on the road, as the Rockets are 38-21 ATS all time at home. I'll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.