THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Colorado (0-1 SU and ATS) at Toledo (0-1 SU and ATS)
Two teams coming off ugly losses try to rebound tonight when the Buffaloes travel to Toledo to take on the Rockets at the Glass Bowl.
Colorado fell 23-17 at home Sunday night to rival Colorado State, losing outright as a 10½-point home favorite. The lackluster Buffs offense from 2008 returned for the 2009 opener, gaining just 251 yards against the Rams, 67 less than their average from a year ago when Colorado ranked 95th nationally in total offense. QB Cody Hawkins threw for 222 yards with a TD and an INT, but he was sacked four times.
Toledo went to Purdue on Saturday and got caught up in a shootout with the Boilermakers, eventually falling 52-31 as a 10-point underdog. QB Aaron Opelt tossed it all over the field for 423 yards, three TDs and an INT, but the Rockets’ run defense was horrendous, giving up 315 yards on 39 carries (8.1 ypc average).
Colorado has lost four straight non-conference road games by an average of 15 points per game and is just 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 contests dating to last season. The Buffs are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games. Toledo is now just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 September games, but the Rockets are on positive ATS runs of 27-13 at home, 8-3 as a home underdog – including seven outright upsets – and 4-1 after a SU loss.
The Buffaloes have topped the total in eight of their last 11 games as a favorite and 10 of 13 on Friday, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action, 5-1 in September and 5-1 on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Toledo is on “under’ runs of 10-4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as an underdog, 5-2 on Friday and 5-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Rockets have soared over the total in eight of 11 as a home ‘dog.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (83-58) at San Francisco (76-64)
Dodgers’ right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 4.15 ERA) takes the ball opposite the Giants’ Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51) in the opener of a critical National League West series at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Los Angeles leads the division by two games over the Rockies and by 6½ over San Francisco. The Giants come into this one having lost three of four overall while Los Angeles has split its last 10 games, but dropped a 4-3 decision in Arizona on Wednesday.
The Dodgers are still riding streaks of 8-3 against Cain, 38-18 against the N.L. West, 36-15 following a loss and 4-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, San Francisco has lost five straight after an off-day, but it is on positive runs of 44-19 as a home favorite, 6-1 in series openers, 20-6 at home against winning road teams and 7-3 at home overall.
Kuroda has a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts, one of which includes an Aug. 10 outing in San Francisco when he gave up just one run in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 Los Angeles win. In his five career starts against the Giants, three of which came in northern California, Kuroda has allowed more than three runs just once. The Dodgers are just 3-8 when Kuroda starts as a road ‘dog, and just 2-5 when he’s on the road against a winning team.
Cain is a stellar 6-2 at home this season with a 2.53 ERA, and overall the Giants have won seven of his last 10 outings, including each of his last three. In his most recent start Saturday, Cain gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in Milwaukee as the Giants got a 3-2 victory. The last time he saw the Dodgers was April 15 when he gave up two runs on seven hits in six innings, but the Giants fell 5-4 on the road. San Francisco is just 4-9 in Cain’s last 13 starts on Fridays, but otherwise behind Cain the Giants are on runs of 16-5 when he’s a home chalk, 17-4 overall and 6-0 against the N.L. West.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, 11-1 when he’s an underdog, 6-1 when he faces N.L. West teams and 7-2 when he pitches on the road. As a team, the Dodgers are on “under” streaks of 21-6-3 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 13-3-2 against the N.L. West and 7-0-1 against teams with a winning record.
It’s been all “unders” for the Giants with Cain on the hill as well, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts overall, 6-2 when he’s a favorite and 8-1 when he gets five days off. As a team, San Francisco has stayed below the total in seven of eight overall, 20 of its last 30 Friday games, 11 of 16 as a home favorite and four straight against right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (72-68) at Boston (81-58)
The Rays, in the midst of season-high eight-game losing streak, send right-hander James Shields (9-10, 4.02 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park in Boston opposite Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (12-7, 3.44).
Tampa Bay has fallen 9½ games behind the Red Sox in the race for the A.L. wild-card, virtually assuring the defending A.L. pennant-holders won’t be in line to repeat come the postseason. It was the Red Sox who started the Rays on their eight-game slide with a 6-3 win in Tampa on Sept. 3, and Boston has dominated the Rays at Fenway, winning 50 of the last 66 meetings.
The Red Sox come in riding several positive streaks, including 11-5 overall, 35-17 as a favorite, 46-19 at home, 10-3 against right-handers and 7-1 against A.L. East teams. On the opposite end, the Rays haven’t had much luck lately, including 0-5 against A.L. East teams, 5-16 against teams with a winning record and 0-6 as an underdog.
Shields was beaten up on Saturday, allowing six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of an 8-6 home loss to the Tigers. In his last three outings, Shields has allowed 13 runs in 20 innings. In his two starts at Fenway this season, he’s given up a combined 10 runs on 19 hits over 11 1/3 innings as the Red Sox beat him 5-3 on April 7 and 7-3 on May 8. Tampa Bay has lost six of his last eight outings against Boston. The Rays are on slides of 6-20 when Shields is a road ‘dog and 8-18 when he starts on the road against a winning team.
Lester has been strong lately, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA, and that includes seven innings of shutout ball in Chicago on Sunday as the Red Sox scored a 6-1 win. Boston has won each of his last five starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a contest since July 30, a span of eight starts. The Red Sox have lost three of his four starts against Tampa this season, but he’s performed well in the last two, allowing three runs in 12 innings of action. Boston is on streaks of 44-14 when Lester is a favorite, 37-16 in his last 53 overall and 17-5 when he starts at home against a winning team.
With Shields on the bump, the Rays have topped the total in four straight, but the “under” is on runs of 13-3 when he’s a ‘dog and 9-4-1 when he faces A.L. East foes. As a team, Tampa is on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 12-4 as a ‘dog, 5-2 in series openers and 4-1 overall. With Lester pitching, the Red Sox are on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 against winning teams10-3-3 in series openers and 5-2-1 at home. However, as a team, Boston has topped the total in 15 of 20 at home, 19 of 26 as a favorite, 11 of 12 series openers and four of five against A.L. East rivals.
Finally, in this series the “over” is 4-0-1 when Shields faces the Sox and 3-0-1 in the last four overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Colorado (0-1 SU and ATS) at Toledo (0-1 SU and ATS)
Two teams coming off ugly losses try to rebound tonight when the Buffaloes travel to Toledo to take on the Rockets at the Glass Bowl.
Colorado fell 23-17 at home Sunday night to rival Colorado State, losing outright as a 10½-point home favorite. The lackluster Buffs offense from 2008 returned for the 2009 opener, gaining just 251 yards against the Rams, 67 less than their average from a year ago when Colorado ranked 95th nationally in total offense. QB Cody Hawkins threw for 222 yards with a TD and an INT, but he was sacked four times.
Toledo went to Purdue on Saturday and got caught up in a shootout with the Boilermakers, eventually falling 52-31 as a 10-point underdog. QB Aaron Opelt tossed it all over the field for 423 yards, three TDs and an INT, but the Rockets’ run defense was horrendous, giving up 315 yards on 39 carries (8.1 ypc average).
Colorado has lost four straight non-conference road games by an average of 15 points per game and is just 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 contests dating to last season. The Buffs are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games. Toledo is now just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 September games, but the Rockets are on positive ATS runs of 27-13 at home, 8-3 as a home underdog – including seven outright upsets – and 4-1 after a SU loss.
The Buffaloes have topped the total in eight of their last 11 games as a favorite and 10 of 13 on Friday, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action, 5-1 in September and 5-1 on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Toledo is on “under’ runs of 10-4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as an underdog, 5-2 on Friday and 5-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Rockets have soared over the total in eight of 11 as a home ‘dog.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (83-58) at San Francisco (76-64)
Dodgers’ right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 4.15 ERA) takes the ball opposite the Giants’ Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51) in the opener of a critical National League West series at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Los Angeles leads the division by two games over the Rockies and by 6½ over San Francisco. The Giants come into this one having lost three of four overall while Los Angeles has split its last 10 games, but dropped a 4-3 decision in Arizona on Wednesday.
The Dodgers are still riding streaks of 8-3 against Cain, 38-18 against the N.L. West, 36-15 following a loss and 4-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, San Francisco has lost five straight after an off-day, but it is on positive runs of 44-19 as a home favorite, 6-1 in series openers, 20-6 at home against winning road teams and 7-3 at home overall.
Kuroda has a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts, one of which includes an Aug. 10 outing in San Francisco when he gave up just one run in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 Los Angeles win. In his five career starts against the Giants, three of which came in northern California, Kuroda has allowed more than three runs just once. The Dodgers are just 3-8 when Kuroda starts as a road ‘dog, and just 2-5 when he’s on the road against a winning team.
Cain is a stellar 6-2 at home this season with a 2.53 ERA, and overall the Giants have won seven of his last 10 outings, including each of his last three. In his most recent start Saturday, Cain gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in Milwaukee as the Giants got a 3-2 victory. The last time he saw the Dodgers was April 15 when he gave up two runs on seven hits in six innings, but the Giants fell 5-4 on the road. San Francisco is just 4-9 in Cain’s last 13 starts on Fridays, but otherwise behind Cain the Giants are on runs of 16-5 when he’s a home chalk, 17-4 overall and 6-0 against the N.L. West.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, 11-1 when he’s an underdog, 6-1 when he faces N.L. West teams and 7-2 when he pitches on the road. As a team, the Dodgers are on “under” streaks of 21-6-3 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 13-3-2 against the N.L. West and 7-0-1 against teams with a winning record.
It’s been all “unders” for the Giants with Cain on the hill as well, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts overall, 6-2 when he’s a favorite and 8-1 when he gets five days off. As a team, San Francisco has stayed below the total in seven of eight overall, 20 of its last 30 Friday games, 11 of 16 as a home favorite and four straight against right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (72-68) at Boston (81-58)
The Rays, in the midst of season-high eight-game losing streak, send right-hander James Shields (9-10, 4.02 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park in Boston opposite Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (12-7, 3.44).
Tampa Bay has fallen 9½ games behind the Red Sox in the race for the A.L. wild-card, virtually assuring the defending A.L. pennant-holders won’t be in line to repeat come the postseason. It was the Red Sox who started the Rays on their eight-game slide with a 6-3 win in Tampa on Sept. 3, and Boston has dominated the Rays at Fenway, winning 50 of the last 66 meetings.
The Red Sox come in riding several positive streaks, including 11-5 overall, 35-17 as a favorite, 46-19 at home, 10-3 against right-handers and 7-1 against A.L. East teams. On the opposite end, the Rays haven’t had much luck lately, including 0-5 against A.L. East teams, 5-16 against teams with a winning record and 0-6 as an underdog.
Shields was beaten up on Saturday, allowing six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of an 8-6 home loss to the Tigers. In his last three outings, Shields has allowed 13 runs in 20 innings. In his two starts at Fenway this season, he’s given up a combined 10 runs on 19 hits over 11 1/3 innings as the Red Sox beat him 5-3 on April 7 and 7-3 on May 8. Tampa Bay has lost six of his last eight outings against Boston. The Rays are on slides of 6-20 when Shields is a road ‘dog and 8-18 when he starts on the road against a winning team.
Lester has been strong lately, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA, and that includes seven innings of shutout ball in Chicago on Sunday as the Red Sox scored a 6-1 win. Boston has won each of his last five starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a contest since July 30, a span of eight starts. The Red Sox have lost three of his four starts against Tampa this season, but he’s performed well in the last two, allowing three runs in 12 innings of action. Boston is on streaks of 44-14 when Lester is a favorite, 37-16 in his last 53 overall and 17-5 when he starts at home against a winning team.
With Shields on the bump, the Rays have topped the total in four straight, but the “under” is on runs of 13-3 when he’s a ‘dog and 9-4-1 when he faces A.L. East foes. As a team, Tampa is on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 12-4 as a ‘dog, 5-2 in series openers and 4-1 overall. With Lester pitching, the Red Sox are on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 against winning teams10-3-3 in series openers and 5-2-1 at home. However, as a team, Boston has topped the total in 15 of 20 at home, 19 of 26 as a favorite, 11 of 12 series openers and four of five against A.L. East rivals.
Finally, in this series the “over” is 4-0-1 when Shields faces the Sox and 3-0-1 in the last four overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
