NFL Week 1 Selection
7-Unit Play. Take #478 Green Bay (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month
This game is for NEXT WEEKEND. This line is on the move so I want to get it out there for my clients to get early action on. It will be reposted next week with info on how to play any line movement. I recommend this play as a 6-Unit Play at 3.5 or 4.0. My full analysis will be posted with next week's opening NFL picks.
That's it for this week. Next update will be on Thursday, Sept. 10 at 6 p.m. EST. Good luck!
7-Unit Play. Take #478 Green Bay (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 13)
Note: This is my NFL Game of the Month
This game is for NEXT WEEKEND. This line is on the move so I want to get it out there for my clients to get early action on. It will be reposted next week with info on how to play any line movement. I recommend this play as a 6-Unit Play at 3.5 or 4.0. My full analysis will be posted with next week's opening NFL picks.
That's it for this week. Next update will be on Thursday, Sept. 10 at 6 p.m. EST. Good luck!
SAM CLAYTON
**21-9 with 25 dime selections, No. 22 goes tonight!**
25 dime - Rockies
Clinging to a one-game lead in the National League Wild Card standings, this is make-or-break time for the Rockies. And with a little under a month left to play, Colorado must continue to bolster their already impressive home record (38-27) and win the "must-win" games at Coors Field. The Rox responded as expected against the Mets, taking the first two contests against New York and that trend needs to continue today. Colorado had the wind sucked out of their sails against the Giants last weekend, but if they can continue to beat the sub .500 teams like everybody knows they should, they will be in great shape for the late September push.
I love this spot for the Rockies as they are pitted against a free-falling Diamondbacks squad, one that has been putrid on the highway lately. Arizona has dropped 13 of its last 17 contests on the road and they've plated a little over 3 runs a game over that span. And while usually that's enough to support Danny Haren (13-8, 2.78), the right-hander has hit a serious rough patch in August, posting a 4.95 ERA and allowing 5 runs or more three times. Meanwhile, Colorado has been on fire at Coors Field as they've won 11 of their last 16 home contests. Southpaw Pat Misch might have quieted the Rockies' hitters in yesterday's matinee, but it's no secret that this offense doesn't stay down for long. Colorado has been crushing right-handed pitching since the All-Star break and with Brad Hawpe and Carlos Gonzalez back in the lineup, things are looking up.
Jason Hammel gets the call for Colorado and unlike Haren, he went on a tear in August. The 6'6" right-hander complied a 3-1 record with a 3.63 ERA, which says a lot when you're pitching at a notorious hitters' ballpark. It's more than just numbers though, it was the quality teams -- Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Phillies and Cubs -- that Hammel shut down so to speak as none of the aforementioned clubs got to him for more than three runs. In fact, his last three starts, Hammel's ERA is an amazing 2.36. He's heating up at the right time and with the Rockies bats looking to come full circle, this is a great value play. Lay the eight cents and roll with Colorado.
**21-9 with 25 dime selections, No. 22 goes tonight!**
25 dime - Rockies
Clinging to a one-game lead in the National League Wild Card standings, this is make-or-break time for the Rockies. And with a little under a month left to play, Colorado must continue to bolster their already impressive home record (38-27) and win the "must-win" games at Coors Field. The Rox responded as expected against the Mets, taking the first two contests against New York and that trend needs to continue today. Colorado had the wind sucked out of their sails against the Giants last weekend, but if they can continue to beat the sub .500 teams like everybody knows they should, they will be in great shape for the late September push.
I love this spot for the Rockies as they are pitted against a free-falling Diamondbacks squad, one that has been putrid on the highway lately. Arizona has dropped 13 of its last 17 contests on the road and they've plated a little over 3 runs a game over that span. And while usually that's enough to support Danny Haren (13-8, 2.78), the right-hander has hit a serious rough patch in August, posting a 4.95 ERA and allowing 5 runs or more three times. Meanwhile, Colorado has been on fire at Coors Field as they've won 11 of their last 16 home contests. Southpaw Pat Misch might have quieted the Rockies' hitters in yesterday's matinee, but it's no secret that this offense doesn't stay down for long. Colorado has been crushing right-handed pitching since the All-Star break and with Brad Hawpe and Carlos Gonzalez back in the lineup, things are looking up.
Jason Hammel gets the call for Colorado and unlike Haren, he went on a tear in August. The 6'6" right-hander complied a 3-1 record with a 3.63 ERA, which says a lot when you're pitching at a notorious hitters' ballpark. It's more than just numbers though, it was the quality teams -- Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Phillies and Cubs -- that Hammel shut down so to speak as none of the aforementioned clubs got to him for more than three runs. In fact, his last three starts, Hammel's ERA is an amazing 2.36. He's heating up at the right time and with the Rockies bats looking to come full circle, this is a great value play. Lay the eight cents and roll with Colorado.
Canadian Bacon
CFL Week 10 preview and picks
Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions (+5.5, 54)
The Lions are impatiently waiting for this game against the Als after an embarrassing lost, prior to their bye week, to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Alouettes haven’t won in Vancouver since 2000. They will also have to manage the three-hour time difference, which is never easy for team from the East playing in the Pacific Coast. Two key players will be missing: safety Matthieu Proulx and left tackle Josh Bourke, but they will be replaced by Etienne Boulay and Skip Seagraves - two players who could easily be starters on most CFL teams.
The Lions don’t bite like they used to on offence and they still didn’t figure out how to stop their opponents’ running games. Marc Trestman says he will not use running back Avon Cobourne more than usual in this showdown but he would be wrong not to use, in these circumstances, such a weapon. The smile on Cobourne’s face tells me that despite what his coach said to the media, he expects to have a huge workload against B.C. If that’s the case, the Lions will be in for a very long night.
Pick: Montreal -5.5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 51.5)
The Blue Bombers are coming to Saskatchewan with a renewed energy following their domination of the Lions. Even more so, since the Roughriders defence is a far cry from what it used to be, allowing 256 points after eight games - the most by any CFL team. At the start of the season, nobody feared the Bombers attack but since the arrival of Michael Bishop and with the domination of RB Fred Reid, things have changed. But can Reid and Yvenson Bernard manage to be as productive in this game as they were against the Lions? Let me doubt it. The Roughriders attack is also more diversified, less predictable and, at home, they are always a very tough team. The oddsmakers have established the Riders as 7-point favorites but I doubt they will cover the spread. They should win but it will be a close game until the final whistle.
Pick: Bombers +7
Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-6, 47.5)
The Tiger Cats have been playing disciplined football and, within the limits of their talent, it has proven positive since the start of the season. The Argos, despite the fact they seem more talented on paper, have found ways to shoot themselves in the foot and it becomes more obvious each week that their head coach Bart Andrus is no Marc Trestman and that he struggles to master the subtleties of 3-down football. Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter have proved more accurate than Kerry Joseph, rookie DeAndra’ Cobb is a better running back than Jamal Robertson and defensively, the Tiger Cats play with more cohesion. It won’t be easy, it won’t be pretty but Hamilton should again take advantage of their opponent’s mistakes to steal a victory. The six points, however, is another story.
Pick: Toronto +6
Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 60)
Ricky Ray has been on fire in the past month and the Eskimos are finally playing to their potential, having won four of their last five - three of them after trailing late in a game. This team has character, no doubt about it. Arkee Whitlock, who had a tough start, is becoming a solid and versatile running back. He rushed for 302 yards in his last two games, scoring three touchdowns for the Eskimos. But can they beat the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium? They only did so once in their last four visits in Calgary. The Eskimos are, in my humble opinion, the best team in the West. But when they meet their Alberta rivals, in Calgary, logic doesn’t prevail.
Pick: Calgary -6
(Last Week 2-0, season 19-13)
CFL Week 10 preview and picks
Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions (+5.5, 54)
The Lions are impatiently waiting for this game against the Als after an embarrassing lost, prior to their bye week, to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Alouettes haven’t won in Vancouver since 2000. They will also have to manage the three-hour time difference, which is never easy for team from the East playing in the Pacific Coast. Two key players will be missing: safety Matthieu Proulx and left tackle Josh Bourke, but they will be replaced by Etienne Boulay and Skip Seagraves - two players who could easily be starters on most CFL teams.
The Lions don’t bite like they used to on offence and they still didn’t figure out how to stop their opponents’ running games. Marc Trestman says he will not use running back Avon Cobourne more than usual in this showdown but he would be wrong not to use, in these circumstances, such a weapon. The smile on Cobourne’s face tells me that despite what his coach said to the media, he expects to have a huge workload against B.C. If that’s the case, the Lions will be in for a very long night.
Pick: Montreal -5.5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 51.5)
The Blue Bombers are coming to Saskatchewan with a renewed energy following their domination of the Lions. Even more so, since the Roughriders defence is a far cry from what it used to be, allowing 256 points after eight games - the most by any CFL team. At the start of the season, nobody feared the Bombers attack but since the arrival of Michael Bishop and with the domination of RB Fred Reid, things have changed. But can Reid and Yvenson Bernard manage to be as productive in this game as they were against the Lions? Let me doubt it. The Roughriders attack is also more diversified, less predictable and, at home, they are always a very tough team. The oddsmakers have established the Riders as 7-point favorites but I doubt they will cover the spread. They should win but it will be a close game until the final whistle.
Pick: Bombers +7
Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-6, 47.5)
The Tiger Cats have been playing disciplined football and, within the limits of their talent, it has proven positive since the start of the season. The Argos, despite the fact they seem more talented on paper, have found ways to shoot themselves in the foot and it becomes more obvious each week that their head coach Bart Andrus is no Marc Trestman and that he struggles to master the subtleties of 3-down football. Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter have proved more accurate than Kerry Joseph, rookie DeAndra’ Cobb is a better running back than Jamal Robertson and defensively, the Tiger Cats play with more cohesion. It won’t be easy, it won’t be pretty but Hamilton should again take advantage of their opponent’s mistakes to steal a victory. The six points, however, is another story.
Pick: Toronto +6
Edmonton Eskimos at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 60)
Ricky Ray has been on fire in the past month and the Eskimos are finally playing to their potential, having won four of their last five - three of them after trailing late in a game. This team has character, no doubt about it. Arkee Whitlock, who had a tough start, is becoming a solid and versatile running back. He rushed for 302 yards in his last two games, scoring three touchdowns for the Eskimos. But can they beat the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium? They only did so once in their last four visits in Calgary. The Eskimos are, in my humble opinion, the best team in the West. But when they meet their Alberta rivals, in Calgary, logic doesn’t prevail.
Pick: Calgary -6
(Last Week 2-0, season 19-13)
BIG AL McMordie
DALLAS + THE POINTS
Our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points over
Minnesota. This will be a tough game for the Vikings, who are working
on an awfully short work week. Minnesota played Monday night down in
Houston, and then had to travel back home for this game -- just four
days later. After starting the preseason with three wins, there's
little to prove here, and the primary focus for the Vikings' coaches
will be to come out of this game healthy. Dallas, on the other hand,
last played on Saturday, so it will have had six days between its last
game and Friday -- a 2-day work advantage. The Cowboys also check in
off a 7-point home loss, and now fall into a 37-17 ATS system of mine
that plays on certain teams off a 7-point loss, who are matched up
against a foe off a win. Look for an upset here. Take the points.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
DALLAS + THE POINTS
Our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points over
Minnesota. This will be a tough game for the Vikings, who are working
on an awfully short work week. Minnesota played Monday night down in
Houston, and then had to travel back home for this game -- just four
days later. After starting the preseason with three wins, there's
little to prove here, and the primary focus for the Vikings' coaches
will be to come out of this game healthy. Dallas, on the other hand,
last played on Saturday, so it will have had six days between its last
game and Friday -- a 2-day work advantage. The Cowboys also check in
off a 7-point home loss, and now fall into a 37-17 ATS system of mine
that plays on certain teams off a 7-point loss, who are matched up
against a foe off a win. Look for an upset here. Take the points.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Jack Jones
20* Total Annihilator on Tulsa/Tulane UNDER 61.5
While Tulsa certainly has the firepower to rack up some points against the Tulane Green Wave tonight, keep in mind that they lost their star quarterback, and their leading rusher from a year ago. Neither defense is known for keeping points off of the board, but Tulane shouldn't be finding the endzone very often, coming off of a season where they averaged just 16.7 points per game. This early in the year, with so many new faces on offense for both teams, the under is the smart play.
15* on Phillies -126
This should be a great match up between two very good pitchers, but the Phillies get the big edge here tonight because of their offense in a hitter-friendly park against a left-handed starter. Houston is hitting just .222 as a team over their last 7 games, where they are averaging just 2.9 runs per game. The Phillies are in a little slump of their own offensively, but they hit lefties extremely well, averaging 5.4 runs per game against them, helping them to a 27-14 record whenever they square-off against a southpaw.
20* Total Annihilator on Tulsa/Tulane UNDER 61.5
While Tulsa certainly has the firepower to rack up some points against the Tulane Green Wave tonight, keep in mind that they lost their star quarterback, and their leading rusher from a year ago. Neither defense is known for keeping points off of the board, but Tulane shouldn't be finding the endzone very often, coming off of a season where they averaged just 16.7 points per game. This early in the year, with so many new faces on offense for both teams, the under is the smart play.
15* on Phillies -126
This should be a great match up between two very good pitchers, but the Phillies get the big edge here tonight because of their offense in a hitter-friendly park against a left-handed starter. Houston is hitting just .222 as a team over their last 7 games, where they are averaging just 2.9 runs per game. The Phillies are in a little slump of their own offensively, but they hit lefties extremely well, averaging 5.4 runs per game against them, helping them to a 27-14 record whenever they square-off against a southpaw.
