Kelso Highrollers Baseball
Friday, September 04, 2009
15 UnitsLa Angels {J.Weaver} (-155) over Royals {G.Meche}
8:10 PM -- Kauffman Stadium
Los Angles Angels (78-54) -155 over KANSAS CITY ROYALS (51-82) Pitching for Los Angeles: RH Jered Weaver (13-5, 3.89) Pitching for Kansas City: RH Gil Meche (6-10, 5.09) Starting Time: 8:10 TV: Fox Sports West, Fox Sports Kansas City
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
Friday, September 04, 2009
15 UnitsLa Angels {J.Weaver} (-155) over Royals {G.Meche}
8:10 PM -- Kauffman Stadium
Los Angles Angels (78-54) -155 over KANSAS CITY ROYALS (51-82) Pitching for Los Angeles: RH Jered Weaver (13-5, 3.89) Pitching for Kansas City: RH Gil Meche (6-10, 5.09) Starting Time: 8:10 TV: Fox Sports West, Fox Sports Kansas City
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
Robert Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take #903 St. Louis (-1.5, -125) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #909 Philadelphia (-125) over Houston (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #925 L.A. Angels (-145) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #901 Florida (-115) over Washington (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #914 Colorado (-105) over Arizona (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #905 Chicago Cubs (-150) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #930 Oakland (+100) over Seattle (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #921 Minnesota (-105) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
Today’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Texas at Baltimore (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Boston at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Arizona at Colorado (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #903 St. Louis (-1.5, -125) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #909 Philadelphia (-125) over Houston (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #925 L.A. Angels (-145) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #901 Florida (-115) over Washington (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #914 Colorado (-105) over Arizona (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #905 Chicago Cubs (-150) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #930 Oakland (+100) over Seattle (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take #921 Minnesota (-105) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
Today’s Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Texas at Baltimore (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Boston at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Arizona at Colorado (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
Johnny Guild
Friday, September 4th, 8:00 PM EST.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (0-0) at Tulane Green Wave (0-0)
Superdome - New Orleans, Louisiana
Tulsa has won all four meetings versus Tulane since joining Conference USA in 2005. Look for Golden Hurricane’s powerful offense to crush the Green Wave. Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes versus Tulane.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -14
Friday, September 4th, 8:00 PM EST.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (0-0) at Tulane Green Wave (0-0)
Superdome - New Orleans, Louisiana
Tulsa has won all four meetings versus Tulane since joining Conference USA in 2005. Look for Golden Hurricane’s powerful offense to crush the Green Wave. Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes versus Tulane.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane -14
4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 between the Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (Friday @ 7:05pm). I have a belief in what I call the 70% and -130 line. What that means essentially is in games in which the public is on a team to a tune of 70%, and the line still remains -130 or less, Vegas expects the dog to do well in the game. In this case, the Orioles. Typically this means the pitcher who is the dog is expected to pitch well and compete in the contest. Feldman is a solid pitcher as he is 5-0 with a 2.89 era in August and he is 2-0 with a 3.93 era in six starts vs. the Os. But, Tillman, one of the Orioles top pitching prospects is coming into this own in the Majors. After a bit of a rough start, he is beginning to settle in. He has pitched five straight quality starts and his last three have gone under consequently. I expect this game to be a pitcher's battle as both pitchers are likely to keep the opposing offenses at bay. I rode this under in a similar fashion with the Dbacks/Dodgers earlier in one of the few wins recently and it panned out so I am doing it again here. Otherwise, we will stick to sides as it has worked better for us prior to this rut we are currently in baseball.
Good luck,
IC
Good luck,
IC
5 Unit Pick Take Over (9.5) Boston at The Chicago White Sox’s (Friday, Sept. 4th 8:10)
Who would have thought this would have been a pitching matchup at the start of the year when Red Sox’s starter Paul Byrd was out of baseball and Freddy Garcia was cut by the Mets. Garcia has been good in his last two starts for Chicago giving up six runs over his last twelve innings with one of those starts coming at Boston where he struck out five that start some ten day’s ago. Garcia has been plaque by arm problems in the past, with this quick of a turnaround and Garcia limited options of making adjustments I think this will be a tough start for him. Boston starter Paul Byrd was awesome in his first start against Toronto and Roy Halladay tossing six innings of shutout baseball on just 83 pitches. In just his second start back he again will be on a low pitch count. This game will come down to the bullpens but I think the starters will give up some runs
2 Unit Pick #902 Take Washington (+1.10) over Florida (Friday, Sept. 4th 7:05)
I like the Nationals in this spot with Florida coming off two emotional wins vs. the Braves to keep their playoff hopes alive. Washington starter has been in good form over his last five starts as he is trying to pitch himself into the 2010. Mock, hasn’t has allowed more then two runs just once in his last five starts and has struck out 32 in his last 28 2/3 innings. He will be opposed by Sean West who was hit hard once this year by this Washington lineup and has a bloated road era of 5.74 and has walk more hitter’s then he has struck out their and he is listed as the favorite. I take the ugly girl at the dance
Thanks and Good Luck, Dave Busk
Who would have thought this would have been a pitching matchup at the start of the year when Red Sox’s starter Paul Byrd was out of baseball and Freddy Garcia was cut by the Mets. Garcia has been good in his last two starts for Chicago giving up six runs over his last twelve innings with one of those starts coming at Boston where he struck out five that start some ten day’s ago. Garcia has been plaque by arm problems in the past, with this quick of a turnaround and Garcia limited options of making adjustments I think this will be a tough start for him. Boston starter Paul Byrd was awesome in his first start against Toronto and Roy Halladay tossing six innings of shutout baseball on just 83 pitches. In just his second start back he again will be on a low pitch count. This game will come down to the bullpens but I think the starters will give up some runs
2 Unit Pick #902 Take Washington (+1.10) over Florida (Friday, Sept. 4th 7:05)
I like the Nationals in this spot with Florida coming off two emotional wins vs. the Braves to keep their playoff hopes alive. Washington starter has been in good form over his last five starts as he is trying to pitch himself into the 2010. Mock, hasn’t has allowed more then two runs just once in his last five starts and has struck out 32 in his last 28 2/3 innings. He will be opposed by Sean West who was hit hard once this year by this Washington lineup and has a bloated road era of 5.74 and has walk more hitter’s then he has struck out their and he is listed as the favorite. I take the ugly girl at the dance
Thanks and Good Luck, Dave Busk
Dr. Bob
Friday Strong Opinion
TULANE 28 Tulsa (-14) 37
Tulsa's offense has led the NCAA rankings in each of the last two seasons, although I ranked them 9th both seasons after compensating for strength of opposing defenses. That ranking is likely to go down this season, but not because quarterback David Johnson has moved on. After all, Johnson was a new starting quarterback last season and the 3 quarterbacks battling for the starting job this season are all at least as talented as Johnson was. The reason for the slip in the offensive numbers is the departure of big play receiver Brennan Marion, who caught 82 passes the last two seasons for an amazing 28.7 yards per catch. It's impossible to replace numbers like that and the new quarterback isn't likely to be as well protected as Johnson was last season behind an experienced line. This years line has just 2 returning starters and the 3 that graduated were all multiple year starters, so the sack percentage should go up a bit while the yards per catch numbers go down. Tulsa will still have a very good pass attack, but averaging 9.2 yards per pass play like last season is not going to happen. The rushing attack should be nearly as good even without leading rusher Tarrion Adams, who ran for 1523 yards at 6.2 ypr in 2008. The 3 backups last season ran for a combined 1224 yards at 6.7 ypr so the only drop-off in run production will come from the less experienced offensive line. Tulsa will still be very good offensively (about 20th best in the nation), so expect them to score plenty of points against the weak CUSA defenses that they'll face.
The Golden Hurricane defense has been bad in both of Todd Graham's seasons as head coach and that unit allowed 5.8 yppl last season to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. The defense should be better this season with 8 returning starters but they'll probably still be below average (although average by CUSA standards).
The Green Wave started last season with an impressive showing against Alabama, out-gaining the Tide 3.9 yards per play to 3.6 yppl but losing 6-20 because of two special teams touchdowns allowed. Tulane's offense had a tough time in that game against a stout Bama defense, but the Green Wave started to blossom offensively in the weeks that followed and were a better than average offensive team prior to losing star WR Jeremy Williams in their 5th game and then losing star RB Andre' Anderson early in game 7. The Tulane quarterbacks averaged 6.8 yards per pass play before the injury to Williams, who racked up 437 receiving yards on 42 passes intended for him (he caught 27), but the Green Wave managed just 5.3 yppp in the 7 1/2 games without Williams. Freshman Joe Kemp did a better job throwing the ball than starter Kevin Moore and Kemp is the starter heading into this season. Williams is back from his broken hand and ready to be an All-CUSA receiver. The rushing attack also was night and day different without Anderson, who ran for 864 yards at 5.0 ypr while the other backs combined for 3.6 ypr. Tulane was just 0.1 yards per rushing play worse than an average team with Anderson and they were a horrific 2.0 yprp worse than average without him last season. Overall, the Green Wave offense finished the 2008 season with an average of just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but they were better than average with Anderson and Williams in the lineup and they are both back this season. I expect Tulane to be a good offensive team this season as long as Anderson and Williams are healthy.
Tulane's defense started last season well, allowing just 4.8 yppl in their first 4 games (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), but the Wave fell apart defensively after that and ended the season with a 6.4 yppl average and a rating of 0.9 yppl worse than average. There will be improvement from the defense this season but it may not come until after star DT Reggie Scott and S Corey Sonnier (last year's leading tackler) return from 2 games suspensions.
Tulsa beat Tulane 56-7 late last season when the Green Wave offense was rudderless without Williams and Anderson and when the defense was worn down. The Golden Hurricane will certainly be able to move the ball on Tulane, but the Green Wave should score around 30 points themselves against a sub-par Tulsa defense. My ratings favor Tulsa by only 9 1/2 points in this game and it is clear that Tulane's offensive collapse without their two stars has skewed the perception of just how good Tulane's offense can be. I'd consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at +14 or more.
Friday Strong Opinion
TULANE 28 Tulsa (-14) 37
Tulsa's offense has led the NCAA rankings in each of the last two seasons, although I ranked them 9th both seasons after compensating for strength of opposing defenses. That ranking is likely to go down this season, but not because quarterback David Johnson has moved on. After all, Johnson was a new starting quarterback last season and the 3 quarterbacks battling for the starting job this season are all at least as talented as Johnson was. The reason for the slip in the offensive numbers is the departure of big play receiver Brennan Marion, who caught 82 passes the last two seasons for an amazing 28.7 yards per catch. It's impossible to replace numbers like that and the new quarterback isn't likely to be as well protected as Johnson was last season behind an experienced line. This years line has just 2 returning starters and the 3 that graduated were all multiple year starters, so the sack percentage should go up a bit while the yards per catch numbers go down. Tulsa will still have a very good pass attack, but averaging 9.2 yards per pass play like last season is not going to happen. The rushing attack should be nearly as good even without leading rusher Tarrion Adams, who ran for 1523 yards at 6.2 ypr in 2008. The 3 backups last season ran for a combined 1224 yards at 6.7 ypr so the only drop-off in run production will come from the less experienced offensive line. Tulsa will still be very good offensively (about 20th best in the nation), so expect them to score plenty of points against the weak CUSA defenses that they'll face.
The Golden Hurricane defense has been bad in both of Todd Graham's seasons as head coach and that unit allowed 5.8 yppl last season to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. The defense should be better this season with 8 returning starters but they'll probably still be below average (although average by CUSA standards).
The Green Wave started last season with an impressive showing against Alabama, out-gaining the Tide 3.9 yards per play to 3.6 yppl but losing 6-20 because of two special teams touchdowns allowed. Tulane's offense had a tough time in that game against a stout Bama defense, but the Green Wave started to blossom offensively in the weeks that followed and were a better than average offensive team prior to losing star WR Jeremy Williams in their 5th game and then losing star RB Andre' Anderson early in game 7. The Tulane quarterbacks averaged 6.8 yards per pass play before the injury to Williams, who racked up 437 receiving yards on 42 passes intended for him (he caught 27), but the Green Wave managed just 5.3 yppp in the 7 1/2 games without Williams. Freshman Joe Kemp did a better job throwing the ball than starter Kevin Moore and Kemp is the starter heading into this season. Williams is back from his broken hand and ready to be an All-CUSA receiver. The rushing attack also was night and day different without Anderson, who ran for 864 yards at 5.0 ypr while the other backs combined for 3.6 ypr. Tulane was just 0.1 yards per rushing play worse than an average team with Anderson and they were a horrific 2.0 yprp worse than average without him last season. Overall, the Green Wave offense finished the 2008 season with an average of just 5.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but they were better than average with Anderson and Williams in the lineup and they are both back this season. I expect Tulane to be a good offensive team this season as long as Anderson and Williams are healthy.
Tulane's defense started last season well, allowing just 4.8 yppl in their first 4 games (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), but the Wave fell apart defensively after that and ended the season with a 6.4 yppl average and a rating of 0.9 yppl worse than average. There will be improvement from the defense this season but it may not come until after star DT Reggie Scott and S Corey Sonnier (last year's leading tackler) return from 2 games suspensions.
Tulsa beat Tulane 56-7 late last season when the Green Wave offense was rudderless without Williams and Anderson and when the defense was worn down. The Golden Hurricane will certainly be able to move the ball on Tulane, but the Green Wave should score around 30 points themselves against a sub-par Tulsa defense. My ratings favor Tulsa by only 9 1/2 points in this game and it is clear that Tulane's offensive collapse without their two stars has skewed the perception of just how good Tulane's offense can be. I'd consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at +14 or more.
JAMES MANOS
Twins at Indians
Pick: Indians -104
Cleveland returns home after being swept in Detroit but in that series the Indians were much more competitive than the sweep suggests. The Indians will send lefty Sowers to the mound and he'll get to face a Minnesota lineup that is just 20-26 SU vs lefty starters. I like what I've seen from Cleveland since they made some trades and went with a more youthful linuep.
Twins at Indians
Pick: Indians -104
Cleveland returns home after being swept in Detroit but in that series the Indians were much more competitive than the sweep suggests. The Indians will send lefty Sowers to the mound and he'll get to face a Minnesota lineup that is just 20-26 SU vs lefty starters. I like what I've seen from Cleveland since they made some trades and went with a more youthful linuep.
XNFL
1 Unit Play. #137. Take Houston Texans +3 against the Tampa Bay Bucs (Friday @ 7pm est). I cannot believe the Bucs are likely to start the bum known as Byron Leftwich. The guy is a has been and this team actually thinks he has talent. Good luck and good riddance. Houston is extremely well coached and usually and I expect their coaching staff to have this team ready to go as they come off back to back losses to New Orleans and Minnesota. Schaub and Orlovsky have looked this good preseason thus far and with a steady dose of Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels while Steve Slaton and Chris Brown run the ball, I believe the Texans have a likely shot at winning this game outright.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
1 Unit Play. #137. Take Houston Texans +3 against the Tampa Bay Bucs (Friday @ 7pm est). I cannot believe the Bucs are likely to start the bum known as Byron Leftwich. The guy is a has been and this team actually thinks he has talent. Good luck and good riddance. Houston is extremely well coached and usually and I expect their coaching staff to have this team ready to go as they come off back to back losses to New Orleans and Minnesota. Schaub and Orlovsky have looked this good preseason thus far and with a steady dose of Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels while Steve Slaton and Chris Brown run the ball, I believe the Texans have a likely shot at winning this game outright.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
The Sports Investing Professional - Friday
Yesterdays Recap - A very good start to NCAA Football. On twitter our original send out of a 1/2 unit on Ball State turned out to be a big sucker bet. That doesn't happen to me often but as I saw the line fall like a rock I knew we were in trouble. Then I made some calls and dug deep to come up with a STRONG play on the UNDER in the Oregon / Boise St game and a solid play with Boise as well to make a very nice day.
Todays Plays - It's doubtful that we'll have any football but we're back to a situation that I feel like for the price...it's worth the investment.
MLB - LA Dodgers -1.5 -110 LeBlanc / Kershaw 550.00 / 500.00
May The Ball Bounce Your Way,
The Sports Investing Professional
Twitter: tsipro
Record (42-25) +$5,734
Yesterdays Recap - A very good start to NCAA Football. On twitter our original send out of a 1/2 unit on Ball State turned out to be a big sucker bet. That doesn't happen to me often but as I saw the line fall like a rock I knew we were in trouble. Then I made some calls and dug deep to come up with a STRONG play on the UNDER in the Oregon / Boise St game and a solid play with Boise as well to make a very nice day.
Todays Plays - It's doubtful that we'll have any football but we're back to a situation that I feel like for the price...it's worth the investment.
MLB - LA Dodgers -1.5 -110 LeBlanc / Kershaw 550.00 / 500.00
May The Ball Bounce Your Way,
The Sports Investing Professional
Twitter: tsipro
Record (42-25) +$5,734
Gina
Friday, September 4th, 2009 7:05 p.m. est.
Texas Rangers (75-58) at Baltimore Orioles (54-80)
(R) Scott Feldman (14-4) vs. (R) Chris Tillman (1-2)
Texas' Scott Feldman (14-4, 3.72 ERA), is 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last six starts, 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six on the road The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA in six career outings, including two starts, against the Orioles. The Rangers are 5-1 in Feldman’s last 6 starts.
Baltimore's Chris Tillman (1-2, 4.24), is 0-2 with a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts. The Orioles are 1-5 in the rookie last 6 starts.
Texas Rangers have won four of the last five contests against Baltimore at Oriole Park and right-hander Scott Feldman has pitched outstanding away from home, going 10-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 12 road starts. Texas has won 17 of Feldman's last 21 road starts. Go with the Rangers! The struggling Orioles are a sad 54-80 this season and have dropped eight of their last ten games at home.
Texas Rangers -130
Friday, September 4th, 2009 7:05 p.m. est.
Texas Rangers (75-58) at Baltimore Orioles (54-80)
(R) Scott Feldman (14-4) vs. (R) Chris Tillman (1-2)
Texas' Scott Feldman (14-4, 3.72 ERA), is 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last six starts, 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six on the road The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA in six career outings, including two starts, against the Orioles. The Rangers are 5-1 in Feldman’s last 6 starts.
Baltimore's Chris Tillman (1-2, 4.24), is 0-2 with a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts. The Orioles are 1-5 in the rookie last 6 starts.
Texas Rangers have won four of the last five contests against Baltimore at Oriole Park and right-hander Scott Feldman has pitched outstanding away from home, going 10-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 12 road starts. Texas has won 17 of Feldman's last 21 road starts. Go with the Rangers! The struggling Orioles are a sad 54-80 this season and have dropped eight of their last ten games at home.
Texas Rangers -130
7-Unit Play. Take #909 Philadelphia (-125) over Houston (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)
This is my Game of the Month. Cliff Lee is coming off his worst start as a Phillie and I think that he will bounce right back with another strong effort. He is 5-1 since coming over from the American League. And as we’ve seen with John Smoltz and Brad Penny, things are a bit easier in the N.L. for a pitcher. Philadelphia has been a very good road team this year and they are 39-17 in their last 46 games against the N.L. Central. Wandy Rodriguez has been very good this year but he is just 2-5 in his last seven starts and the Astros are just 5-15 after an off day. I like the Phillies to get the big win in the opener here.
Allen Eastman
This is my Game of the Month. Cliff Lee is coming off his worst start as a Phillie and I think that he will bounce right back with another strong effort. He is 5-1 since coming over from the American League. And as we’ve seen with John Smoltz and Brad Penny, things are a bit easier in the N.L. for a pitcher. Philadelphia has been a very good road team this year and they are 39-17 in their last 46 games against the N.L. Central. Wandy Rodriguez has been very good this year but he is just 2-5 in his last seven starts and the Astros are just 5-15 after an off day. I like the Phillies to get the big win in the opener here.
Allen Eastman
