THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Tulsa at Tulane
The Golden Hurricane set a school record with 11 wins last season and they’ll try to get off to another strong start when they open the season against Conference USA rival Tulane inside the Superdome in New Orleans.
Tulsa went 11-3 SU (8-5 ATS) in 2008 but lost in the C-USA championship game to East Carolina 27-24, falling as a 12½-point favorite. Tulsa bounced back in the GMAC Bowl, ripping apart Ball State 45-13 and easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite. The Hurricane won their first eight games last season (6-1 ATS) before dropping a 30-23 decision at Arkansas as a seven-point chalk on Nov. 1.
After opening the 2008 campaign a respectable 2-2 (3-1 ATS), the Green Wave dropped their final eight contests (2-6 ATS), including embarrassing season-ending losses at Tulsa (56-7 as a 28½-point ‘dog) and at Memphis (45-6 as a 14½-point pup). Tulane lost its final six games by a combined 183 points (30.5 ppg).
Tulsa coach Todd Graham signed a new 10-year contract in the offseason, but he’s got his work cut out for him replacing QB David Johnson who threw for 47 TDs a season ago. Graham said he’s chosen a starter and he’s revealed it to his team, but wouldn’t announce it publicly. However, it’s expected that junior G.J. Kinne, a transfer from Texas, has won the job over returning junior Jacob Bower (138 yards passing in mop-up duty last season) and true freshman Shavodrick Beaver and that Kinne will get the majority of snaps tonight.
The Green Wave have managed just six wins the past two seasons under former UCLA coach Bob Toledo. RB Andre Anderson led C-USA in rushing before going down with a season-ending injury after seven games that saw him run for 864 yards and seven touchdowns. QB Joe Kemp is a redshirt sophomore who won the job in the offseason over returning starter Kevin Moore. Tulane has six starters back on a defense that was 14th in the country in pass defense.
The Golden Hurricane have won and covered each of the last four meetings with Tulane, all by 24 points or more, including a 49-25 blowout in Louisiana in 2007, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Tulsa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 September contests and has won and covered its last three season-openers. Conversely, Tulane has failed to cover in any of its last four at home and is on further ATS slides of 7-23-1 in C-USA contests, 4-10-1 as a home pup and 0-5 on Friday.
Tulsa has topped the total in seven of 10 as a road chalk, four of five in September and four of six when favored more than 10 points. Meanwhile, Tulane has stayed under the number in six of seven overall, five of six conference battles and five straight as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
NFL PRESEASON
Houston (1-2 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers and Texans close out the preseason against each other for the eighth straight year, with Tampa looking to avoid its first losing exhibition campaign since 2006.
Tampa Bay came up on the short end of a 10-6 decision to the Dolphins on Thursday in a lightning-delayed pick-em contest at home. Despite the defeat, veteran Byron Leftwich did enough to win the starting quarterback job over Luke McCown. Neither Leftwich nor McCown are expected to play tonight, as new coach Raheem Morris rests his regulars and will give all the snaps to rookie QB Josh Freeman and second-year pro Josh Johnson.
Houston fell 17-10 to Brett Favre and the Vikings on Monday, failing as a 3½-point home favorite. Starting QB Matt Schaub injured his ankle in the first half, and although he played several series with the injury, he will not be available tonight. That means backup Dan Orlovsky will start and be followed by Rex Grossman, who missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. Alex Brink is the No. 4 quarterback and will see mop-up duty.
Despite losing two of three this month, the Bucs are still on a 7-4 SU and ATS run in preseason action. They’re also 9-4 (8-5 ATS) in their last 13 exhibition home tilts, and they’ve cashed in four straight as a preseason chalk.
The Texans are 6-1 ATS on the road in preseason play since Kubiak took over in 2006 – all as an underdog – including a 16-10 win as a three-point pup over Kansas City three weeks ago.
Tampa Bay and Houston have met in the preseason finale every year of the Texans’ existence, with the Buccaneers going 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
In summer action, the over is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 (4-1 on the road) and 7-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 (3-1 at home). Finally, the total has alternated in all six preseason meetings between these squads, with last year’s contest staying well below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
Dallas (1-2 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0 SU and ATS)
For the fourth straight summer, the Cowboys and Vikings wrap up preseason play by clashing against each other, this time at the Metrodome, where Minnesota will try for its first unbeaten exhibition campaign since 2001.
Dallas suffered its first preseason home loss since 2002 on Saturday, falling 20-13 to San Francisco as a 6½-point favorite. QB Tony Romo went 11-for-17 for 125 yards and led the Cowboys to a 10-3 first-half lead, but he also threw an interception. Romo and the majority of Dallas’ starters – including WR Roy Williams – likely won’t play tonight. That means veteran Jon Kitna will start under center and be followed by rookie Rudy Carpenter, as fellow first-year QB Stephen McGee is out with a knee injury.
Adrian Peterson scampered 85 yards on the first play from scrimmage on Monday in Houston, and Minnesota never looked back in posting a 17-10 upset win as a 3½-point road ‘dog. Brett Favre played into the third quarter and went 13 of 18 for 142 yards and a TD, but the veteran QB who is nursing a rib injury will not play tonight, and the same holds true for Peterson and the majority of Minnesota’s starters. Either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson will start, with second-year pro John David Booty being third off the bench.
The Cowboys have lost all five preseason road games under Phillips, going 0-5 ATS and dropping all five by eight points or more, including a 31-10 loss at Oakland in Week 1. Dallas has also failed to cover in four straight as a preseason underdog, but it is on a 4-2 ATS roll in Week 4 of the preseason, including last year’s 16-10 win over Minnesota as a three-point home favorite.
The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six exhibition outings, and since 2004, they’re 7-4 SU and ATS in preseason games at the Metrodome and 7-4 ATS as a preseason chalk. They’re also 4-1 ATS in Week 4 of the exhibition slate the last five years, the lone non-cover coming last season in Dallas.
Minnesota has stayed under the total in four straight preseason games, but the Cowboys have topped the total in seven of their last 10 preseason starts and five of their last six exhibition road games, including a 23-14 loss in Minnesota in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
San Francisco (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at San Diego (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Chargers cap exhibition play against the 49ers for the eighth straight year, with San Francisco going for its first perfect preseason this decade and San Diego trying to avoid its first losing summer since 2002.
San Francisco followed up a pair of last-second, one-point home wins over Denver (17-16) and Oakland (21-20) with Saturday’s 20-13 upset victory at Dallas as a 6½-point underdog. New starting QB Shaun Hill played despite a sore back and was mediocre, going 9-for-17 for 79 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Coach Mike Singletary said if Hill does start against San Diego, he will only see very limited action. With backup Alex Smith still nursing an injury and with veteran Damon Huard having been waived this week, look for rookie Nate Davis (10-for-15, 132 yards vs. Dallas) to see the bulk of the time under center tonight.
San Diego built leads of 21-10 and 24-20 against Atlanta last week, but gave up the winning touchdown in the waning seconds, losing 27-24 and pushing as a three-point road underdog. Coach Norv Turner said most of his starters will be on the field for 12 to 15 snaps, but RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who participated in the first two preseason contests, will sit out for the second straight week. Also, Philip Rivers has not played in the preseason finale since becoming the team’s starting QB in 2006, and if that trend continues tonight, veteran backup Billy Volek will start and play the first half with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst finishing up.
The 49ers snapped a three-game preseason ATS losing skid with Saturday’s win at Dallas, but they’re still just 2-10 (5-7 ATS) in their last 12 summer roadies. Meanwhile, despite losing to the Seahawks at home in Week 1, San Diego is still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) in exhibition home games since 2005.
The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the last six years against the 49ers in Week 4 play, including a 20-17 win as a three-point road underdog last August. The teams have met every summer since 1996.
The over is 4-2 in San Francisco’s last six exhibition tilts, 8-5 in San Diego’s last 13 and 4-1 in the last five summer battles between these instate rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (72-61) at Tampa Bay (72-61)
The Tigers go in search of their fourth straight win when they send ace Justin Verlander (15-7, 3.38 ERA) to the mound at Tropicana Field in the opener of a weekend series against the Rays, who will counter with rookie right-hander Jeff Niemann (12-5, 3.80)
Detroit, which leads the A.L. Central by five games over the White Sox, just wrapped up a 5-2 homestand with a three-game sweep of the Indians, capped by Thursday’s 4-3 win in 10 innings. Additionally, the Tigers are on positive streaks of 6-0 in series openers and 6-2 as a favorite, but they are on slides of 6-15 on the road and 4-12 on the highway against right-handed starters.
The Rays, who trail Boston by six games in the A.L. wild-card race, just dropped two of three at home to the Red Sox, including Thursday’s 6-3 loss. Despite those results, the Rays are still on runs of 37-15 at home, 30-12 on Fridays, 70-29 at home against teams with losing road marks and 73-26 at home against right-handed starters. Tampa has also won four straight at home against the Tigers.
Verlander faced the Rays on Sunday and held them to three runs on six hits in eight innings, earning a 4-3 victory as Detroit rallied from a late 3-0 deficit. The Tigers have won six of Verlander’s last eight outings and they’re 5-0 in his five career starts against Tampa Bay, with the All-Star holding the Rays to three runs or less in all five outings. Detroit is on a plethora of positive streaks with Verlander on the hill, including 18-6 against the A.L. East, 41-17 when he gets four days of rest and 7-2 when he’s a favorite.
Niemann is an impressive 5-2 at home with a 2.67 ERA and he dueled Verlander on Sunday pitch-for-pitch, allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings. He’s been great in his last three home starts, surrendering a combined two runs in 24.1 innings, beating the A’s, Royals and Orioles. Tampa is 14-5 in Niemann’s last 19 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home and 6-1 when he pitches series openers.
Detroit has topped the total in four of Verlander’s last five series openers and five of his last six on four days rest, but as a team, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 5-1 against teams with winning records.
Conversely, Tampa has gone over the posted number in five of seven when Niemann has been an underdog, but the Rays have stayed under the number in seven of Niemann’s last 10 overall. The Rays are also on “under” streaks of 14-4-1 as a home underdog, 7-2-2 against right-handed starters and 19-7-2 against A.L. Central teams.
Finally, in this series, the over has been the play in nine of the last 15 clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
