Scott Rickenbach
TOP PLAY
Royals vs. Twins Over 9.5
We are getting some line value here due to the absence of Justin Morneau of the Twins for this game. We’re not going to lie to you. We’d sure love to his bat in there tonight. However, what’s funny about things like this is that Morneau is 0 for 4 in his career against Luke Hochevar of the Royals. Morneau’s replacement in the lineup is expected to again be Michael Cuddyer. Note that Minnesota’s Cuddyer is 2 for 6 with a double and an RBI against Hochevar. In other words, we sometimes get line value that is even “better than usual” in a situation like this. Morneau misses but Cuddyer comes in and knocks the cover off the ball. It is very likely with the way things have been going for Hochevar and the Royals pitching staff!
Kansas City’s Hochevar is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA in his last four starts. Also, it’s not just Hochevar that’s struggling for the Royals pitching staff. Their team ERA, during their current 6-21 slide in home games, is a lofty 5.78 in these 27 home games! One of the few bright spots on this staff is closer Joakim Soria but even he is nursing a twisted ankle. Hochevar did have a very strong start versus the Twins on June 29th. However, look what’s happened since then! Hochevar had a 5.74 ERA and a .315 BAA in July. Also, in August he’s 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and a .361 BAA in his three starts this month. Even though he had that great outing versus Minnesota earlier this season, note how he’s faded ever since then. Also note that Hochevar’s only other career start against the Twins certainly did not go too well! The right-hander allowed five earned runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings of work in his 2008 outing versus Minnesota. Look for another rough one here and, keep in mind, the bullpen has really struggled for the Royals.
The Twins are certainly not without their own pitching issues in this one. They hand the ball to Nick Blackburn and this outing has the makings of a disaster for him. Blackburn has always struggled more against lefties than righties in his career and the Royals are loaded with left-handed sticks! Additionally, Blackburn’s current form has simply been awful of late. Blackburn is 0-4 with a 10.17 ERA in his last six starts! In addition, don’t be fooled by his solid long-term numbers against the Royals. The last time Blackburn faced Kansas City he had one of his worst outings of the season. That start came less than two weeks ago and that means the Royals are getting a quick second look and, hence, another chance to get some very good cuts against him! Blackburn has lasted five innings or less in four of his last six starts and that will further tax a struggling Twins pitching staff. Minnesota has allowed 6.7 runs per game in their last 19 games and we look for more of the same here. Play OVER the total in Kansas City as a Top Play selection on Friday night!
TOP PLAY
Royals vs. Twins Over 9.5
We are getting some line value here due to the absence of Justin Morneau of the Twins for this game. We’re not going to lie to you. We’d sure love to his bat in there tonight. However, what’s funny about things like this is that Morneau is 0 for 4 in his career against Luke Hochevar of the Royals. Morneau’s replacement in the lineup is expected to again be Michael Cuddyer. Note that Minnesota’s Cuddyer is 2 for 6 with a double and an RBI against Hochevar. In other words, we sometimes get line value that is even “better than usual” in a situation like this. Morneau misses but Cuddyer comes in and knocks the cover off the ball. It is very likely with the way things have been going for Hochevar and the Royals pitching staff!
Kansas City’s Hochevar is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA in his last four starts. Also, it’s not just Hochevar that’s struggling for the Royals pitching staff. Their team ERA, during their current 6-21 slide in home games, is a lofty 5.78 in these 27 home games! One of the few bright spots on this staff is closer Joakim Soria but even he is nursing a twisted ankle. Hochevar did have a very strong start versus the Twins on June 29th. However, look what’s happened since then! Hochevar had a 5.74 ERA and a .315 BAA in July. Also, in August he’s 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and a .361 BAA in his three starts this month. Even though he had that great outing versus Minnesota earlier this season, note how he’s faded ever since then. Also note that Hochevar’s only other career start against the Twins certainly did not go too well! The right-hander allowed five earned runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings of work in his 2008 outing versus Minnesota. Look for another rough one here and, keep in mind, the bullpen has really struggled for the Royals.
The Twins are certainly not without their own pitching issues in this one. They hand the ball to Nick Blackburn and this outing has the makings of a disaster for him. Blackburn has always struggled more against lefties than righties in his career and the Royals are loaded with left-handed sticks! Additionally, Blackburn’s current form has simply been awful of late. Blackburn is 0-4 with a 10.17 ERA in his last six starts! In addition, don’t be fooled by his solid long-term numbers against the Royals. The last time Blackburn faced Kansas City he had one of his worst outings of the season. That start came less than two weeks ago and that means the Royals are getting a quick second look and, hence, another chance to get some very good cuts against him! Blackburn has lasted five innings or less in four of his last six starts and that will further tax a struggling Twins pitching staff. Minnesota has allowed 6.7 runs per game in their last 19 games and we look for more of the same here. Play OVER the total in Kansas City as a Top Play selection on Friday night!
TOUT TALLY
Colorado x4 / San Francisco
over x2 / under
Cubs x4 / Dodgers x3
under x2
Yankees x4 / Boston x8
under x3
Tampa Bay x6 / Texas
under
Washington x6 / Milwaukee
Minnesota
over x2
Detroit x2
under x2 / over
St. Louis x5 (1 is RL) / San Diego x2
under
Angels x8 / Toronto
under / over
White Sox RL x6 ML x1
Seattle x3 / Cleveland x2
Atlanta / Florida
under
Houston RL x2
Phillies x2
over
-----NFL----------
Dallas x3 / Tennessee x2
over x3 / under x2
Minnesota x8 / Kansas City x8
under
St. Louis x3 / Atlanta x2
under x3
----WNBA--------------
San Antonio
under
New York
Washington
Colorado x4 / San Francisco
over x2 / under
Cubs x4 / Dodgers x3
under x2
Yankees x4 / Boston x8
under x3
Tampa Bay x6 / Texas
under
Washington x6 / Milwaukee
Minnesota
over x2
Detroit x2
under x2 / over
St. Louis x5 (1 is RL) / San Diego x2
under
Angels x8 / Toronto
under / over
White Sox RL x6 ML x1
Seattle x3 / Cleveland x2
Atlanta / Florida
under
Houston RL x2
Phillies x2
over
-----NFL----------
Dallas x3 / Tennessee x2
over x3 / under x2
Minnesota x8 / Kansas City x8
under
St. Louis x3 / Atlanta x2
under x3
----WNBA--------------
San Antonio
under
New York
Washington
JACK JONES
15* Boston Red Sox +100
Take the Red Sox at home over the Yankees. Boston is a solid 38-18 at Fenway this season, including 6-0 so far against the Yankees. New York has been hot lately, but they are definitely a different team on the road. Brad Penny gets the start for the Red Sox and though is numbers aren't all that impressive at home, Boston is 8-4 in his 12 starts.
15* Boston Red Sox +100
Take the Red Sox at home over the Yankees. Boston is a solid 38-18 at Fenway this season, including 6-0 so far against the Yankees. New York has been hot lately, but they are definitely a different team on the road. Brad Penny gets the start for the Red Sox and though is numbers aren't all that impressive at home, Boston is 8-4 in his 12 starts.
Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd
MLB Baseball Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
MLB | Aug 21 '09 (7:05p)
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Indians Cleveland Indians -115
5* 17-0 Friday Night *BASES BEST BET* on Indians -115
The Tribe has the big edge tonight in this battle of southpaws. The Mariners are one of the worst hitting teams in the league against lefty starters, hitting just .255 and scoring only 3.7 runs per game this season. Meanwhile, the Indians are one of the best hitting teams against southpaw starters, hitting .285 and scoring 6.0 runs per game. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 5-0 in Huff's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. The Mariners are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Plus, they are 17-38 in their last 55 games as a road underdog. Look for the Tribe to pick up its 4th straight win over the Mariners tonight.
NFL Football Premium Picks
NFL | Aug 21 '09 (8:00p)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Minnesota Vikings Kansas City Chiefs +3-115
4* Major NFLX Underdog of the Week on Chiefs +3
In case you haven't heard (yeah right), Brett Favre is aboard for the Vikings and is expected to get the start. While I do expect Favre to have a positive impact on this team this season, I don't expect it to be in his first preseason game after just a couple days of practice. It is also worth noting that Sage Rosenfels has missed considerable practice time this week with a sprained ankle, which likely means that Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty will see the majority of the snaps - that's good for our side. The Vikings won their first preseason game and this one is just about getting Brett a few snaps and seeing what the youngsters can do. KC, which lost its first preseason game, will take a different approach. Wins mean a lot more to teams that are rebuilding in the preseason and I think you'll see a hungry Chiefs squad tonight. Lastly, history is on our side as plays against home teams in the preseason after a win by 10 or more points against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 25-7 ATS since 1993. Plus, the Vikes are just 1-3 their last four preseason home games. Take the points.
MLB Baseball Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
MLB | Aug 21 '09 (7:05p)
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Indians Cleveland Indians -115
5* 17-0 Friday Night *BASES BEST BET* on Indians -115
The Tribe has the big edge tonight in this battle of southpaws. The Mariners are one of the worst hitting teams in the league against lefty starters, hitting just .255 and scoring only 3.7 runs per game this season. Meanwhile, the Indians are one of the best hitting teams against southpaw starters, hitting .285 and scoring 6.0 runs per game. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 5-0 in Huff's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. The Mariners are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Plus, they are 17-38 in their last 55 games as a road underdog. Look for the Tribe to pick up its 4th straight win over the Mariners tonight.
NFL Football Premium Picks
NFL | Aug 21 '09 (8:00p)
Kansas City Chiefs vs Minnesota Vikings Kansas City Chiefs +3-115
4* Major NFLX Underdog of the Week on Chiefs +3
In case you haven't heard (yeah right), Brett Favre is aboard for the Vikings and is expected to get the start. While I do expect Favre to have a positive impact on this team this season, I don't expect it to be in his first preseason game after just a couple days of practice. It is also worth noting that Sage Rosenfels has missed considerable practice time this week with a sprained ankle, which likely means that Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty will see the majority of the snaps - that's good for our side. The Vikings won their first preseason game and this one is just about getting Brett a few snaps and seeing what the youngsters can do. KC, which lost its first preseason game, will take a different approach. Wins mean a lot more to teams that are rebuilding in the preseason and I think you'll see a hungry Chiefs squad tonight. Lastly, history is on our side as plays against home teams in the preseason after a win by 10 or more points against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 25-7 ATS since 1993. Plus, the Vikes are just 1-3 their last four preseason home games. Take the points.
Gina
Friday, August 21st, 2009 7:35 p.m. est.
Texas Rangers (68-52) at Tampa Bay Rays (65-55)
(R) Dustin Nippert (4-1) vs. (L) Scott Kazmir (7-7)
Texas' Dustin Nippert (4-1, 3.52) is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last eight outings, including four starts. The right-hander allowed seven runs over four innings in a 7-4 loss in his only career appearance against Tampa Bay in 2008.
Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir (7-7, 6.36 ERA) has won three of his last four starts and is 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three home outings. The lefthander is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in eight starts against the Rangers.
Go with the Rays to grab their fifth straight win tonight at home with lefty Scott Kazmir on the hill. Kazmir has been successful against Rangers, going 7-1 in his last 8 starts versus Texas, 4-0 in his last 4 at home. In addition, The Rangers have had difficulties against the Rays in the Sunshine State. Texas has dropped eight of their last ten games against the Rays at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay Rays-160
Friday, August 21st, 2009 7:35 p.m. est.
Texas Rangers (68-52) at Tampa Bay Rays (65-55)
(R) Dustin Nippert (4-1) vs. (L) Scott Kazmir (7-7)
Texas' Dustin Nippert (4-1, 3.52) is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last eight outings, including four starts. The right-hander allowed seven runs over four innings in a 7-4 loss in his only career appearance against Tampa Bay in 2008.
Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir (7-7, 6.36 ERA) has won three of his last four starts and is 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three home outings. The lefthander is 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in eight starts against the Rangers.
Go with the Rays to grab their fifth straight win tonight at home with lefty Scott Kazmir on the hill. Kazmir has been successful against Rangers, going 7-1 in his last 8 starts versus Texas, 4-0 in his last 4 at home. In addition, The Rangers have had difficulties against the Rays in the Sunshine State. Texas has dropped eight of their last ten games against the Rays at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay Rays-160
Mr. A's
Friday, August 21st, 2009 8:05 PM EST.
Arizona Diamondbacks (54-68) at Houston Astros (59-62)
(R) Yusmeiro Petit (2-7) vs. (R) Roy Oswalt (6-4)
Oddsmakers: Houston as a -200 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.
Houston Astros -200
Friday, August 21st, 2009 8:10 PM EST.
Baltimore Orioles (49-72) at Chicago White Sox (62-59)
(R) Jeremy Guthrie (7-12) vs. (R) Gavin Floyd (10-7)
Oddsmakers: Chicago as a -200 home favorite with the total listed at 9 'over'.
Chicago White Sox -200
Friday, August 21st, 2009 8:05 PM EST.
Arizona Diamondbacks (54-68) at Houston Astros (59-62)
(R) Yusmeiro Petit (2-7) vs. (R) Roy Oswalt (6-4)
Oddsmakers: Houston as a -200 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.
Houston Astros -200
Friday, August 21st, 2009 8:10 PM EST.
Baltimore Orioles (49-72) at Chicago White Sox (62-59)
(R) Jeremy Guthrie (7-12) vs. (R) Gavin Floyd (10-7)
Oddsmakers: Chicago as a -200 home favorite with the total listed at 9 'over'.
Chicago White Sox -200
FRANK PATRON
HIGHEST RATED 30000 UNIT PRESEASON LOCK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 vs. KANSAS CITY
No the addition of Brett Favre is not the main reason I like them today. I like them because they have a very deep defense and Kansas City is already having problems with their 60 million dollar QB who they are already talking of benching. Their best WR is also causing problems.
The addition of Favre does mean we have some QB depth as well as all 3 QBs for the Vikes have great starting experience and plus there will be some excitement in the Dome tonight so look for an easy Minny win
HIGHEST RATED 30000 UNIT PRESEASON LOCK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 vs. KANSAS CITY
No the addition of Brett Favre is not the main reason I like them today. I like them because they have a very deep defense and Kansas City is already having problems with their 60 million dollar QB who they are already talking of benching. Their best WR is also causing problems.
The addition of Favre does mean we have some QB depth as well as all 3 QBs for the Vikes have great starting experience and plus there will be some excitement in the Dome tonight so look for an easy Minny win
Freddy Wills
NFLX
Cowboys -3 @ -110 for a 4** play
We are going with the Cowboys here who open up their new stadium tonight. You better believe that emotions for the Cowboys will be riding a little higher than they normally would be for a pre-season game. Add that into their 9-0-1 SU and 7-3 ATS reord since 2004 as the home team in the preseason.
Kerry Collins did not look sharp last week as he threw two picks while Vince Young looked very good going 9-14 for 131 and a TD. Patrick Ramsey is also expected to get some action, but I'll still take the Cowboys with Romo expected to see more time than last week where he was in for only two possessions which led to 1 TD drive and a 7-3 lead. However, the Cowboys went on to loose 31-10. Backup Jon Kitna will relieve Romo and the two rookies should see action late. Titans who are 2-0 SU and ATS are not expected to go 3-0 here and I don't think they'll match the excitement in the Cowboys new stadium.
NFLX
Cowboys -3 @ -110 for a 4** play
We are going with the Cowboys here who open up their new stadium tonight. You better believe that emotions for the Cowboys will be riding a little higher than they normally would be for a pre-season game. Add that into their 9-0-1 SU and 7-3 ATS reord since 2004 as the home team in the preseason.
Kerry Collins did not look sharp last week as he threw two picks while Vince Young looked very good going 9-14 for 131 and a TD. Patrick Ramsey is also expected to get some action, but I'll still take the Cowboys with Romo expected to see more time than last week where he was in for only two possessions which led to 1 TD drive and a 7-3 lead. However, the Cowboys went on to loose 31-10. Backup Jon Kitna will relieve Romo and the two rookies should see action late. Titans who are 2-0 SU and ATS are not expected to go 3-0 here and I don't think they'll match the excitement in the Cowboys new stadium.
