Sam Clayton
That's right everybody, we nailed another 30 dime play yesterday, keeping our record perfect (8-0) with those selections. And if all goes to plan, we'll be looking at another possible big 30 dime play on Sunday. Stay tuned...
20 dime - MIN/KC Under 9.5
As was the case yesterday, we've got great value on a high line here with two pitchers that are more than capable of shutting down their opposing offenses. Nick Blackburn (8-8, 4.29) and Luke Hochevar (6-6, 5.73) both possess ace-like stuff and while both have struggled in the dog days of summer, I'm expecting them both to be on top of their games tonight. How easily we forget that from April to late June, these two AL Central studs were two of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of runs allowed. I'm not usually one to dwell on the past, but when I see people saying this game is going to go over because the two pitchers' ERAs combine for over 9.5 runs, that's just terrible. I discount that garbage with the truth -- they can both flat out deal. Not to mention, it's not like either is facing a powerful offense.
Minnesota is still without slugger Justin Morneau, which means less protection for Joe Mauer, and Jason Kubel's front knee is still banged up. And everybody knows Kansas City's offense has been the laughingstock of the American League as the power numbers have hit rock bottom, what with Billy Butler (65) the only Royal that has more than 60 RBIs. Kansas City isn't the type of team that's going to beat you by lighting up the scoreboard. They try and play small ball and manufacture runs, something that is always a great intangible for an under play. Speaking of intangibles, how's this for a fast fact: 27 of the last 43 games in this series have gone UNDER the posted total, including 14 of 21 at Kaufmann Stadium. In fact, all three games in Kansas City this season have sailed under the total. These two pitchers faced off back on June 29 and Blackburn threw six innings of two-run baseball only to be outdone by Hochevar, who blanked the Twinkies over seven innings. The final score was 4-2. Hmm.
Play the UNDER.
That's right everybody, we nailed another 30 dime play yesterday, keeping our record perfect (8-0) with those selections. And if all goes to plan, we'll be looking at another possible big 30 dime play on Sunday. Stay tuned...
20 dime - MIN/KC Under 9.5
As was the case yesterday, we've got great value on a high line here with two pitchers that are more than capable of shutting down their opposing offenses. Nick Blackburn (8-8, 4.29) and Luke Hochevar (6-6, 5.73) both possess ace-like stuff and while both have struggled in the dog days of summer, I'm expecting them both to be on top of their games tonight. How easily we forget that from April to late June, these two AL Central studs were two of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of runs allowed. I'm not usually one to dwell on the past, but when I see people saying this game is going to go over because the two pitchers' ERAs combine for over 9.5 runs, that's just terrible. I discount that garbage with the truth -- they can both flat out deal. Not to mention, it's not like either is facing a powerful offense.
Minnesota is still without slugger Justin Morneau, which means less protection for Joe Mauer, and Jason Kubel's front knee is still banged up. And everybody knows Kansas City's offense has been the laughingstock of the American League as the power numbers have hit rock bottom, what with Billy Butler (65) the only Royal that has more than 60 RBIs. Kansas City isn't the type of team that's going to beat you by lighting up the scoreboard. They try and play small ball and manufacture runs, something that is always a great intangible for an under play. Speaking of intangibles, how's this for a fast fact: 27 of the last 43 games in this series have gone UNDER the posted total, including 14 of 21 at Kaufmann Stadium. In fact, all three games in Kansas City this season have sailed under the total. These two pitchers faced off back on June 29 and Blackburn threw six innings of two-run baseball only to be outdone by Hochevar, who blanked the Twinkies over seven innings. The final score was 4-2. Hmm.
Play the UNDER.
kirk wins
Selections for friday 8-21-2009
mlb
3* angels (0'sullivan) +109 @ blue jays (rzepcyznski)
3* angels @ blue jays over 10 -105 (action)
4* yankees (pettitte) -116 @ red sox (penny)
4* yankees (pettitte) @ red sox (penny) over 10.5 -110
4* twins (blackburn) @ royals (hochevar) under 9.5 -105
3* pirates (morton) -129 vs reds (owings)
3* astros (oswalt) -1.5 runs -105 vs d-backs (petit)
3* cubs (wells) +140 @ dodgers (wolf)
nfl
3* titans +3
Selections for friday 8-21-2009
mlb
3* angels (0'sullivan) +109 @ blue jays (rzepcyznski)
3* angels @ blue jays over 10 -105 (action)
4* yankees (pettitte) -116 @ red sox (penny)
4* yankees (pettitte) @ red sox (penny) over 10.5 -110
4* twins (blackburn) @ royals (hochevar) under 9.5 -105
3* pirates (morton) -129 vs reds (owings)
3* astros (oswalt) -1.5 runs -105 vs d-backs (petit)
3* cubs (wells) +140 @ dodgers (wolf)
nfl
3* titans +3
Street Rosenthal (free pick)
*200 Cleveland Indians -124
I am going back with the Indians for the win tonight. I have Indians starter David Huff as 7-1 SU when the line is between -125 and 130. I also have the Mariners as 6-31 SU since 2007 as a road dog when they blew a lead in their starters last start and lost. Take the Indians for another win
*200 Cleveland Indians -124
I am going back with the Indians for the win tonight. I have Indians starter David Huff as 7-1 SU when the line is between -125 and 130. I also have the Mariners as 6-31 SU since 2007 as a road dog when they blew a lead in their starters last start and lost. Take the Indians for another win
Jack Jones
15* on Boston Red Sox +100
Take the Red Sox at home over the Yankees. Boston is a solid 38-18 at Fenway this season, including 6-0 so far against the Yankees. New York has been hot lately, but they are definitely a different team on the road. Brad Penny gets the start for the Red Sox and though is numbers aren't all that impressive at home, Boston is 8-4 in his 12 starts.
20* No Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +110
Take the White Sox on the run line over the Orioles tonight. Baltimore is one of the worst teams in the American League on the road this season at 19-41, while the White Sox are fighting to keep pace with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central to earn a playoff spot. I also like Gavid Floyd at home for the Sox this season. In 11 home starts, Floyds is 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP (the White Sox are 9-2 in those 11 starts). Meanwhile, Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie has labored through his last 3 appearances, going 0-2 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.
NFL Premium Picks
15* on Kansas City Chiefs +3
15*on St. Louis Rams +3
15* on Boston Red Sox +100
Take the Red Sox at home over the Yankees. Boston is a solid 38-18 at Fenway this season, including 6-0 so far against the Yankees. New York has been hot lately, but they are definitely a different team on the road. Brad Penny gets the start for the Red Sox and though is numbers aren't all that impressive at home, Boston is 8-4 in his 12 starts.
20* No Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +110
Take the White Sox on the run line over the Orioles tonight. Baltimore is one of the worst teams in the American League on the road this season at 19-41, while the White Sox are fighting to keep pace with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central to earn a playoff spot. I also like Gavid Floyd at home for the Sox this season. In 11 home starts, Floyds is 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP (the White Sox are 9-2 in those 11 starts). Meanwhile, Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie has labored through his last 3 appearances, going 0-2 with a 7.64 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.
NFL Premium Picks
15* on Kansas City Chiefs +3
15*on St. Louis Rams +3
The real animal
Bonus Play
Pick title: 2* Dallas -3
Pick Date: 08/21/2009
Pick description:
I hate to be on the public bandwagon (like Philly last night) but Dallas just doesn't lose home preseason games and this is actually a very good spot for the Pokes. Since 2003, Dallas is 11-0-1 SU in their 12 home preseason games and come off a lackluster effort last week at Oakland. Meanwhile Tennessee is 2-0 this month and tonight is their 3rd game in 13 days and all in different cities. Of course the new stadium is opening in Dallas as well and that generates fan excitement along with $80 pizzas (seriously). Reports I've read today has the Cowboys playing their starters into the 3rd quarter. The problem is backing up Tony Romo is Kitna and Stephen McGee. Kitna had a chance to put Dallas up 14-10 just before half last week when he had the Cowboys 1st and goal at the Oakland 1-yard line. Two plays later he fumbled pushing it back to the 18-yard line and the Pokes missed a field goal. Bruce Gradkowski then led the Raiders to three 2nd half touchdown drives and good night Pokes. I'm not real anxious to go against Coach Fisher's 17-9 SU record in his last 26 preseason games. Fisher has proven he likes to win these practice games. Remember in the Hall of Fame game when Alex Mortensen threw that interception returned for a Buffalo touchdown? After that series, he put back-up Patrick Ramsey back in the game replacing Mortensen. So much for giving Chris' son any confidence by letting him continue in the game. But with Tennessee going to Cleveland next week and then hosting Green Bay on September 3rd, I suspect Fisher has accomplished enough already and he might give owner Jerry Jones a chance to gloat in the spotlight. Plus from everything I've read, Dallas had a brutal camp preparing for this year under Coach Phillips. I don't know about you but I'd rather not have huge $$ riding on either Stephen McGee or God forbid Rudy Carpenter in the 4th quarter against the NFL's #1 underdog in Tennessee (19-3 ATS when catching points). 2* free pick only on Dallas -2.
Bonus Play
Pick title: 2* Dallas -3
Pick Date: 08/21/2009
Pick description:
I hate to be on the public bandwagon (like Philly last night) but Dallas just doesn't lose home preseason games and this is actually a very good spot for the Pokes. Since 2003, Dallas is 11-0-1 SU in their 12 home preseason games and come off a lackluster effort last week at Oakland. Meanwhile Tennessee is 2-0 this month and tonight is their 3rd game in 13 days and all in different cities. Of course the new stadium is opening in Dallas as well and that generates fan excitement along with $80 pizzas (seriously). Reports I've read today has the Cowboys playing their starters into the 3rd quarter. The problem is backing up Tony Romo is Kitna and Stephen McGee. Kitna had a chance to put Dallas up 14-10 just before half last week when he had the Cowboys 1st and goal at the Oakland 1-yard line. Two plays later he fumbled pushing it back to the 18-yard line and the Pokes missed a field goal. Bruce Gradkowski then led the Raiders to three 2nd half touchdown drives and good night Pokes. I'm not real anxious to go against Coach Fisher's 17-9 SU record in his last 26 preseason games. Fisher has proven he likes to win these practice games. Remember in the Hall of Fame game when Alex Mortensen threw that interception returned for a Buffalo touchdown? After that series, he put back-up Patrick Ramsey back in the game replacing Mortensen. So much for giving Chris' son any confidence by letting him continue in the game. But with Tennessee going to Cleveland next week and then hosting Green Bay on September 3rd, I suspect Fisher has accomplished enough already and he might give owner Jerry Jones a chance to gloat in the spotlight. Plus from everything I've read, Dallas had a brutal camp preparing for this year under Coach Phillips. I don't know about you but I'd rather not have huge $$ riding on either Stephen McGee or God forbid Rudy Carpenter in the 4th quarter against the NFL's #1 underdog in Tennessee (19-3 ATS when catching points). 2* free pick only on Dallas -2.
