Craig Davis
Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
50 Dime --- JETS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 or -3 1/2. This way we are protecting ourselves in the event the game is decided by a field goal, by getting the win if we get it at -2 1/2 or the push if it's -3.)
I'm urging you to place your wager on this selection as early in the day as you possibly can because I have a feeling it could creep up to -3 or even -3 1/2. When people realize just how lopsided this line is, they'll probably bet it up at least a half point. Let me give you a quick overview of how I see this game, then I'll break it down for you a little more.
Basically, I absolutely love what Rex Ryan has done for this Jets defense. They are starting to remind me a little of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. No proven QB, a solid running game and a defense that has held every offense they've played in check thus far. They'll blitz you from everywhere on the field and have only allowed 3 offensive TDs in four games.... that's impressive. For Miami, despite the fact they ran rough-shod over Buffalo's porous run defense, they still have a QB with less experience than New York's Mark Sanchez and a defense that hasn't figured out how to pass defend yet. It's pretty simple when you think about it, as I'm just not convinced Miami can score by just running the football.
If Chad Pennington were the starting QB I might reconsider this selection or dial it down a little, but I absolutely have no faith in Chad Henne. Do I think he can be a good QB in time? Yeah, sure. But he's not there yet and I'm not about to back a team that can't throw the ball. Henne is completing around 57% of his passes (24 of 41) and has been sacked 7 times because he's one of the least mobile QBs you will come across this year. So you combine a QB who's been sacked that many times in a game-and-a-half with the fact the Jets LOVE to blitz and you could have the recipe for at least a few interceptions from this Jets defense.
New York knows exactly what the Dolphins want to do... they want to run the football with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, control the clock, and win a low-scoring game. If the Jets get up early it's going to force Miami into a situation in which they have to put the game in Henne's hands. That's NOT a good thing for Miami, but it's a great thing for us. I mean, if the Jets can keep Drew Brees and Tom Brady in check, what's to make me think Henne can beat them? It just won't happen.
I also realize you might be looking at NY QB Mark Sanchez and scratching your head as to why I could want to back a rookie QB on the road. Well, because until last week he wasn't playing like a rookie. Sanchez had 4 TDs and 2 INTs through three weeks vs. Houston, New England and Tennessee before faltering somewhat last week in New Orleans. Rex Ryan won't ask Sanchez to win this game for the Jets, he'll simply ask him to manage this game and let his defense do most of the dirty work... the recipe for success for many years in Baltimore.
The Jets also have a little unfinished business to settle with the Miami, as it was the Dolphins who knocked the Jets out of the playoffs by beating them in Week 17, 24-17. Before that, New York had won 5 straight and 8 of 9, including three straight in Miami. And with New England and Buffalo losing Sunday, the Jets can pull a full game ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East with a win tonight... and that's really all we're asking them to do. Defense wins championships, but it also helps set your offense up with good field position... which I expect a bunch of tonight.
The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 on the road as a favorite of 3 points or less and when they struggled moving the football in their previous game (250 yards or less), they've bounced back to cover an amazing 8 of their last 10 times. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are known to struggle when coming into a game off a blowout win, covering just 2 of their last 10 in that spot. It's probably going to be ugly early, but ultimately the Jets will settle down as their defense keeps them in it in the first half. And notice, I didn't even mention Braylon Edwards in this entire analysis because I don't believe he's going to be a factor. The only thing he's going to do is take some of the focus off Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller... which is good for Sanchez (he admits... he loves throwing the ball to Cotchery). Jets win this AFC East battle, 23-10.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-------GL GUYS
