Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy Jets/Dolphins Monday Night MASSACRE on Miami Dolphins +2(-110 at spbook)
This is Miami's chance to get back in the division race. The Dolphins picked up their first win of the season last week in a dominant 38-10 home win over Buffalo. Their previous home game they should have beaten the Colts after holding the ball for 45 of the 60 minutes, but Peyton Manning would not allow his team to lose and he made the most of the 15 minutes the Colts actually had the ball, coming away with a 27-23 road win. But Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning, and he was awful last week on the road against the New Orleans Saints. Sanchez threw a pick-6 to Darren Sharper and fumbled in the end zone to give New Orleans two touchdowns. These are two power running teams, with both having quarterbacks that don't have to do much more than manage the game. That's why the advantage lies with the Dolphins because they run the ball better and stop the run better than the Jets do. Miami is averaging 183 rushing yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry. New York is averaging 130 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins. New York is allowing 100 rushing yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry. Miami is allowing 61 rushing yards/game and a superb 2.9 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins again. The Jets are just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. The numbers don't lie folks, and this game will certainly come down to which team runs the ball and stops the run better. Take Miami and the points.
6* Widow Wiseguy Jets/Dolphins Monday Night MASSACRE on Miami Dolphins +2(-110 at spbook)
This is Miami's chance to get back in the division race. The Dolphins picked up their first win of the season last week in a dominant 38-10 home win over Buffalo. Their previous home game they should have beaten the Colts after holding the ball for 45 of the 60 minutes, but Peyton Manning would not allow his team to lose and he made the most of the 15 minutes the Colts actually had the ball, coming away with a 27-23 road win. But Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning, and he was awful last week on the road against the New Orleans Saints. Sanchez threw a pick-6 to Darren Sharper and fumbled in the end zone to give New Orleans two touchdowns. These are two power running teams, with both having quarterbacks that don't have to do much more than manage the game. That's why the advantage lies with the Dolphins because they run the ball better and stop the run better than the Jets do. Miami is averaging 183 rushing yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry. New York is averaging 130 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins. New York is allowing 100 rushing yards/game and 4.2 yards/carry. Miami is allowing 61 rushing yards/game and a superb 2.9 yards/carry. Advantage Dolphins again. The Jets are just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game since 1992. The numbers don't lie folks, and this game will certainly come down to which team runs the ball and stops the run better. Take Miami and the points.
Bill Simmons
went 8-4 on Sunday, with the Colts game pending.
DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Jets
As much as I worry about the Jets' defense whipping up a batch of Henne Parmigiana, here's the reality: This is a really good matchup for Miami. You will see.
As for the Braylon Edwards trade, here was my gut reaction on Twitter: "Braylon Edwards is going to go over in NYC about as well as a 50-foot Dustin Pedroia statue." I stand by it, but the reaction from readers was better: A number of you pointed out the irony of Edwards getting shipped out of town two days after socking one of LeBron's friends, with the implication being, "Even the other Cleveland teams are trying to keep LeBron happy." And it's true. We are all witnesses.
went 8-4 on Sunday, with the Colts game pending.
DOLPHINS (+1.5) over Jets
As much as I worry about the Jets' defense whipping up a batch of Henne Parmigiana, here's the reality: This is a really good matchup for Miami. You will see.
As for the Braylon Edwards trade, here was my gut reaction on Twitter: "Braylon Edwards is going to go over in NYC about as well as a 50-foot Dustin Pedroia statue." I stand by it, but the reaction from readers was better: A number of you pointed out the irony of Edwards getting shipped out of town two days after socking one of LeBron's friends, with the implication being, "Even the other Cleveland teams are trying to keep LeBron happy." And it's true. We are all witnesses.
Hondo
Hondo went oh-for-Boston yesterday, getting baked with the Patsies and Sawx (ALDS only), but was spared a total wipeout when the Yankees sent him to the winner's circle twice (game and ALDS) to put the debt at 1,595 maynards.
Tonight, it's b-e-t-s, bets, bets, bets, on the J-e-t-s, Jets, Jets, Jets -- 10 units.
Hondo went oh-for-Boston yesterday, getting baked with the Patsies and Sawx (ALDS only), but was spared a total wipeout when the Yankees sent him to the winner's circle twice (game and ALDS) to put the debt at 1,595 maynards.
Tonight, it's b-e-t-s, bets, bets, bets, on the J-e-t-s, Jets, Jets, Jets -- 10 units.
DUNKEL NHL
Pittsburgh at Ottawa
The Penguins are coming off a 5-2 win in Toronto and look to build on their 7-2 record in their last 9 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: Colorado at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.307; Boston 11.993
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
Game 3-4: Los Angeles at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.756; NY Islanders 11.003
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-115); Over
Game 5-6: New Jersey at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.859; Washington 12.004
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Over
Game 7-8: Toronto at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.722; NY Rangers 12.439
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-200); Under
Game 9-10: Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.613; Ottawa 12.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under
Game 11-12: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.391; Tampa Bay 10.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 13-14: Edmonton at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.792; Nashville 11.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+120); Under
Game 15-16: Calgary at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.386; Chicago 12.271
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+155); Over
Game 17-18: Phoenix at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.590; San Jose 12.551
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Over
Pittsburgh at Ottawa
The Penguins are coming off a 5-2 win in Toronto and look to build on their 7-2 record in their last 9 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 1-2: Colorado at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.307; Boston 11.993
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
Game 3-4: Los Angeles at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.756; NY Islanders 11.003
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-115); Over
Game 5-6: New Jersey at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.859; Washington 12.004
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Over
Game 7-8: Toronto at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.722; NY Rangers 12.439
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-200); Under
Game 9-10: Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.613; Ottawa 12.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under
Game 11-12: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.391; Tampa Bay 10.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 13-14: Edmonton at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.792; Nashville 11.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+120); Under
Game 15-16: Calgary at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.386; Chicago 12.271
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+155); Over
Game 17-18: Phoenix at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.590; San Jose 12.551
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Over
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
N.Y. Jets (3-1 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-3 SU and ATS)
After suffering the first loss of his career, Jets’ rookie QB Mark Sanchez will try to get back on the winning track with they visit Land Shark Stadium for an AFC East showdown with the Dolphins.
New York fell 24-10 in New Orleans last weekend, coming up short as a 7½-point underdog, ending a three-game SU and ATS win streak to open the season. Sanchez had a rough outing, completing just 14-of-27 throws for 138 yards with no touchdowns and three INTs, one of which was returned for a score. For the season, Sanchez is completing 57 percent of his throws for 744 yards with four TDs and five INTs.
Miami broke into the win column last weekend with a 38-10 blowout home win over the Bills, easily cashing as a one-point chalk. After scoring just 43 points through the first three games of the season, the Dolphins had a breakout game versus Buffalo, rushing for 251 yards and picking off Buffalo QB Trent Edwards three times, with one returned for a score. Miami QB Chad Henne, in his first career start, was 14-for-22 through the air for 115 yards and one touchdown.
The Dolphins snapped a five-game losing streak to New York with a 24-17 road win in the regular-season finale last December, cashing as a three-point road ‘dog, a victory that clinched the AFC East title for Miami and ended the Jets’ playoff hopes. Despite that result, the Jets have dominated this rivalry of late, going 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 visits to South Beach. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five series matchups with the road team 4-0-1 ATS in those five.
New York has cashed in seven of its last 10 as a road favorite of up to three points, but it is on ATS slides of 1-8 in October, 0-4 following a SU loss, 1-5 as a road favorite and 1-4 in Week 5 games. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six October outings and 5-1 in its last six against AFC East teams, but otherwise the Dolphins carry negative pointspread numbers of 1-4 dating to last season, 14-36-1 at home, 0-4 as a ‘dog, 1-5 as a home ‘dog and 2-8 following a win of more than 14 points.
On Monday night, New York is 17-22 SU (20-28-1 ATS) while Miami is 38-34 SU (39-32-1 ATS). But on the road on Monday night, the Jets are 7-15 SU (11-11 ATS) while the Dolphins are 32-18 at home (29-21 ATS) in this prime-time contest, including a 27-23 loss to Indianapolis as three-point home pup in Week 2.
The Jets have gone over the posted number in four of their last five Monday games, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 as a road favorite, 4-1 in October and 5-2-1 against AFC East rivals. The Dolphins have gone over the total in 12 of 17 Monday games, but they’ve stayed “under” the total in 11 of 15 overall, five of six as a ‘dog, seven of eight in Week 5 and six straight following a spread-cover.
Finally, the over is 4-1 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
NLDS
Philadelphia (2-1) at Colorado (1-2)
The Phillies send left-hander Cliff Lee (7-4, 3.39 ERA) to the mound at Coors Field in Denver looking for the NLDS clincher against the Rockies, who turn to ace Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47) in Game 4 of this best-of-5 series.
Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard delivered a ninth-inning sacrifice fly in Game 3 and Brad Lidge closed out the Rockies in the bottom of the ninth to give the Phillies a 2-1 lead in this series. Philadelphia, which is looking to return to the National League Championship Series for the second straight year, is on several hot streaks, including 9-2 against the N.L. West, 20-7 in the fourth game of a series, 19-7 on Mondays and 8-2 in playoff contests.
Colorado is on positive runs of 42-17 at home, 7-3 against the N.L. East and 16-6 at home against left-handed starters. The Rockies have also won four of their last six divisional playoff games (all against Philadelphia), but overall, they’ve now dropped six of their last seven in the postseason.
The Phillies are 6-3 against the Rockies this season (3-1 in Colorado), and since getting swept by the Rockies in the 2007 NLDS, Philadelphia has won 11 of 14 in this rivalry (five of six at Coors Field).
The Phillies are 9-4 in Lee’s 13 starts with the club, including 5-2 in his road outings and 4-0 when he’s started against N.L. West teams. He was magnificent in Game 1 on Wednesday, throwing a complete-game, six-hitter, allowing just one ninth-inning run while striking out five and not walking a batter in Philadelphia’s 5-1 victory. Lee’s made now two career starts against Colorado, allowing a combined two runs on 12 hits in 16 innings of work, striking out 14 and walking one. Including his time with Cleveland this season, Lee was 8-5 on the road in 2009 with a 3.57 ERA.
Jimenez was opposite Lee in Game 1, and he gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings in getting tagged with the loss. It’s been rough going for Jimenez in his career against Philadelphia as he’s allowed 17 runs on 28 hits in his last 14 innings of work against the Phils, losing all three games over the last two seasons.
Jimenez’s lone strong outing against the Phillies came at Coors in the 2007 NLDS when he held them to one run on three hits over 6 1/3 innings as the Rockies eliminated Philadelphia with a 2-1 win in Game 3. Jimenez was 8-5 at home this season with a 3.34 ERA, and for his career he’s 18-12 at Coors with a 3.41 ERA.
For Philadelphia, the over is on runs of 11-2-1 overall and 6-0 on the road. However, in the playoffs, the Phillies are on “under” streaks of 5-3-1 overall, 6-3 on the road and 6-2 in the divisional round. With Lee on the mound, Philly has stayed below the total in five of six against winning teams.
Colorado has topped the total in five of six at home, but the Rockies are on a plethora of “under” streaks with Jimenez on the hill, including 18-7-1 overall, 9-1 at home, 9-2 when he faces N.L. East squads and 26-10 when he gets four days of rest.
Finally, with Sunday’s game soaring past the total, the “over” has now been the play in 10 of 14 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, with the last six at Coors Field topping the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NFL
N.Y. Jets (3-1 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-3 SU and ATS)
After suffering the first loss of his career, Jets’ rookie QB Mark Sanchez will try to get back on the winning track with they visit Land Shark Stadium for an AFC East showdown with the Dolphins.
New York fell 24-10 in New Orleans last weekend, coming up short as a 7½-point underdog, ending a three-game SU and ATS win streak to open the season. Sanchez had a rough outing, completing just 14-of-27 throws for 138 yards with no touchdowns and three INTs, one of which was returned for a score. For the season, Sanchez is completing 57 percent of his throws for 744 yards with four TDs and five INTs.
Miami broke into the win column last weekend with a 38-10 blowout home win over the Bills, easily cashing as a one-point chalk. After scoring just 43 points through the first three games of the season, the Dolphins had a breakout game versus Buffalo, rushing for 251 yards and picking off Buffalo QB Trent Edwards three times, with one returned for a score. Miami QB Chad Henne, in his first career start, was 14-for-22 through the air for 115 yards and one touchdown.
The Dolphins snapped a five-game losing streak to New York with a 24-17 road win in the regular-season finale last December, cashing as a three-point road ‘dog, a victory that clinched the AFC East title for Miami and ended the Jets’ playoff hopes. Despite that result, the Jets have dominated this rivalry of late, going 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 visits to South Beach. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five series matchups with the road team 4-0-1 ATS in those five.
New York has cashed in seven of its last 10 as a road favorite of up to three points, but it is on ATS slides of 1-8 in October, 0-4 following a SU loss, 1-5 as a road favorite and 1-4 in Week 5 games. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six October outings and 5-1 in its last six against AFC East teams, but otherwise the Dolphins carry negative pointspread numbers of 1-4 dating to last season, 14-36-1 at home, 0-4 as a ‘dog, 1-5 as a home ‘dog and 2-8 following a win of more than 14 points.
On Monday night, New York is 17-22 SU (20-28-1 ATS) while Miami is 38-34 SU (39-32-1 ATS). But on the road on Monday night, the Jets are 7-15 SU (11-11 ATS) while the Dolphins are 32-18 at home (29-21 ATS) in this prime-time contest, including a 27-23 loss to Indianapolis as three-point home pup in Week 2.
The Jets have gone over the posted number in four of their last five Monday games, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 as a road favorite, 4-1 in October and 5-2-1 against AFC East rivals. The Dolphins have gone over the total in 12 of 17 Monday games, but they’ve stayed “under” the total in 11 of 15 overall, five of six as a ‘dog, seven of eight in Week 5 and six straight following a spread-cover.
Finally, the over is 4-1 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
NLDS
Philadelphia (2-1) at Colorado (1-2)
The Phillies send left-hander Cliff Lee (7-4, 3.39 ERA) to the mound at Coors Field in Denver looking for the NLDS clincher against the Rockies, who turn to ace Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47) in Game 4 of this best-of-5 series.
Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard delivered a ninth-inning sacrifice fly in Game 3 and Brad Lidge closed out the Rockies in the bottom of the ninth to give the Phillies a 2-1 lead in this series. Philadelphia, which is looking to return to the National League Championship Series for the second straight year, is on several hot streaks, including 9-2 against the N.L. West, 20-7 in the fourth game of a series, 19-7 on Mondays and 8-2 in playoff contests.
Colorado is on positive runs of 42-17 at home, 7-3 against the N.L. East and 16-6 at home against left-handed starters. The Rockies have also won four of their last six divisional playoff games (all against Philadelphia), but overall, they’ve now dropped six of their last seven in the postseason.
The Phillies are 6-3 against the Rockies this season (3-1 in Colorado), and since getting swept by the Rockies in the 2007 NLDS, Philadelphia has won 11 of 14 in this rivalry (five of six at Coors Field).
The Phillies are 9-4 in Lee’s 13 starts with the club, including 5-2 in his road outings and 4-0 when he’s started against N.L. West teams. He was magnificent in Game 1 on Wednesday, throwing a complete-game, six-hitter, allowing just one ninth-inning run while striking out five and not walking a batter in Philadelphia’s 5-1 victory. Lee’s made now two career starts against Colorado, allowing a combined two runs on 12 hits in 16 innings of work, striking out 14 and walking one. Including his time with Cleveland this season, Lee was 8-5 on the road in 2009 with a 3.57 ERA.
Jimenez was opposite Lee in Game 1, and he gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings in getting tagged with the loss. It’s been rough going for Jimenez in his career against Philadelphia as he’s allowed 17 runs on 28 hits in his last 14 innings of work against the Phils, losing all three games over the last two seasons.
Jimenez’s lone strong outing against the Phillies came at Coors in the 2007 NLDS when he held them to one run on three hits over 6 1/3 innings as the Rockies eliminated Philadelphia with a 2-1 win in Game 3. Jimenez was 8-5 at home this season with a 3.34 ERA, and for his career he’s 18-12 at Coors with a 3.41 ERA.
For Philadelphia, the over is on runs of 11-2-1 overall and 6-0 on the road. However, in the playoffs, the Phillies are on “under” streaks of 5-3-1 overall, 6-3 on the road and 6-2 in the divisional round. With Lee on the mound, Philly has stayed below the total in five of six against winning teams.
Colorado has topped the total in five of six at home, but the Rockies are on a plethora of “under” streaks with Jimenez on the hill, including 18-7-1 overall, 9-1 at home, 9-2 when he faces N.L. East squads and 26-10 when he gets four days of rest.
Finally, with Sunday’s game soaring past the total, the “over” has now been the play in 10 of 14 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, with the last six at Coors Field topping the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
DCI
Season: 23-17 (.575)
BOSTON 4, Colorado 2
Los Angeles vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. RANGERS 4, Toronto 2
WASHINGTON 4, New Jersey 3
Pittsburgh vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Florida vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NASHVILLE 3, Edmonton 2
CHICAGO 4, Calgary 3
SAN JOSE 3, Phoenix 2
Season: 23-17 (.575)
BOSTON 4, Colorado 2
Los Angeles vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. RANGERS 4, Toronto 2
WASHINGTON 4, New Jersey 3
Pittsburgh vs. OTTAWA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Florida vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NASHVILLE 3, Edmonton 2
CHICAGO 4, Calgary 3
SAN JOSE 3, Phoenix 2
Steven Budin-CEO MONDAY'S PICK NEW YORK CREW
25 DIME RELEASE
Jets
Note: This line is mainly -2 1/2 with an occasional -3 as I release it on Sunday evening.
If your price is -3, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 to insure you get a win should the Jets only win by three.
If this lines moves to -3 1/2 as kickoff approaches on Monday, obviously you should buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to make sure you get a push if the game results in a three-point New York win.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
Note Regarding Sunday's Play
I released Sunday's play on Carolina from the Freehold, New Jersey Wise Guys at 6:45 Eastern on Friday evening, about 10 minutes after I got word that was their play. They obviously released the play early because of an anticipated line move and I wanted to do the same.
The line on Friday night was -3 1/2, and I instructed you at that time to buy down the 1/2 point to -3 on Carolina. And, as you know, the Panthers ultimately won by just three.
The line remained -3 1/2 until late Saturday afternoon at a number of places in Vegas and offshore; in fact that's when I personally bet the game at -3 (buying down the half point).
The line, as you know, moved upward on Saturday night and Sunday.
Now, I can tell you for a fact that looking at the buying patterns for this play, more than half of you took my advice and got this play early. I'm assuming since you bought it early you also bet it early because there is no good reason to ever sit on a favorite; the price is rarely going to go down, especially in the pros. However, I am taking a loss worth -30 dimes on this play.
Bottom line: We either ALL win together or we ALL lose together.
Honesty and integrity; those principles govern my life and they are the core foundation for how this site is run by Al DeMarco as well.
25 DIME RELEASE
Jets
Note: This line is mainly -2 1/2 with an occasional -3 as I release it on Sunday evening.
If your price is -3, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 to insure you get a win should the Jets only win by three.
If this lines moves to -3 1/2 as kickoff approaches on Monday, obviously you should buy down the 1/2 point to -3 to make sure you get a push if the game results in a three-point New York win.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
Note Regarding Sunday's Play
I released Sunday's play on Carolina from the Freehold, New Jersey Wise Guys at 6:45 Eastern on Friday evening, about 10 minutes after I got word that was their play. They obviously released the play early because of an anticipated line move and I wanted to do the same.
The line on Friday night was -3 1/2, and I instructed you at that time to buy down the 1/2 point to -3 on Carolina. And, as you know, the Panthers ultimately won by just three.
The line remained -3 1/2 until late Saturday afternoon at a number of places in Vegas and offshore; in fact that's when I personally bet the game at -3 (buying down the half point).
The line, as you know, moved upward on Saturday night and Sunday.
Now, I can tell you for a fact that looking at the buying patterns for this play, more than half of you took my advice and got this play early. I'm assuming since you bought it early you also bet it early because there is no good reason to ever sit on a favorite; the price is rarely going to go down, especially in the pros. However, I am taking a loss worth -30 dimes on this play.
Bottom line: We either ALL win together or we ALL lose together.
Honesty and integrity; those principles govern my life and they are the core foundation for how this site is run by Al DeMarco as well.
Dave Malinsky 10/12
Jets/Dolphins First Half Special
UNDER 18,MIAMI DOLPHINS -vs-New York Jets
4* #427 NY JETS/MIAMI First half
Under In a game that essentially has a pair of rookie QB?s going head-to-head under extreme pressure (yes, Chad Henne is in his second season, but he is a rookie in terms of game experience), we have a good idea how Rex Ryan and Tony Sparano want to play this one ? try to eliminate early mistakes that can give anything away, and make the focus forcing the opposing offense into to provide the easy opportunities. That gives us a First Half flow that we can work with, especially with 17?s out there as ?win? numbers. It is not as though we are asking for an unusual tempo anyway from these two ? both have had more runs than passes, with neither wanting the QB to carry more of a load than is necessary. But that tightens even more here. Mark Sanchez had a disastrous outing at New Orleans last week, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble, with two of those turnovers being returned directly for TD?s. Ryan will try to ease him into this one, and with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington providing an able run balance he can attack that way. The other side of the equation brings more than meets the eye off of last week?s results. Yes, the Dolphins hammered Buffalo 38-10, creating the impression that all was fine in Henne?s debut as starter. It wasn?t. The passing game produced an anemic 3.1 yards per attempt, with a stunning count of six sacks in 28 attempts. That latter number can not be emphasized enough. Despite never trailing at any time, and holding a lead of at least 14 points over the final 35 minutes of play, when play action fakes were a part of almost all pass plays, Henne was sacked as many times in those 28 attempts as the Bills have picked up in 149 attempts in all other games. Now Henne has to go up against not only one of the most complex defenses in the league, but also one that gets the boost of Calvin Pace returning to the lineup (suspension served), adding another pass rushing threat. The Jets have only allowed one offensive TD in the first half of a game this season, and that is despite facing the likes of veterans Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub and Kerry Collins. They can not only throw things at Henne that he is not ready for, but remember how Ryan completely shackled those Dolphin ?Wildcat? sets in the playoffs last January. So why not the full game Under? Because at some point the trailing team is going to have to open up, and with Sanchez and Henne already having thrown ?Pick 6?s? this season we would not want the early flow to become muddle by late mistakes. Our focus will be the first two quarters, with the pleasure of cashing the ticket at halftime.
Jets/Dolphins First Half Special
UNDER 18,MIAMI DOLPHINS -vs-New York Jets
4* #427 NY JETS/MIAMI First half
Under In a game that essentially has a pair of rookie QB?s going head-to-head under extreme pressure (yes, Chad Henne is in his second season, but he is a rookie in terms of game experience), we have a good idea how Rex Ryan and Tony Sparano want to play this one ? try to eliminate early mistakes that can give anything away, and make the focus forcing the opposing offense into to provide the easy opportunities. That gives us a First Half flow that we can work with, especially with 17?s out there as ?win? numbers. It is not as though we are asking for an unusual tempo anyway from these two ? both have had more runs than passes, with neither wanting the QB to carry more of a load than is necessary. But that tightens even more here. Mark Sanchez had a disastrous outing at New Orleans last week, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble, with two of those turnovers being returned directly for TD?s. Ryan will try to ease him into this one, and with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington providing an able run balance he can attack that way. The other side of the equation brings more than meets the eye off of last week?s results. Yes, the Dolphins hammered Buffalo 38-10, creating the impression that all was fine in Henne?s debut as starter. It wasn?t. The passing game produced an anemic 3.1 yards per attempt, with a stunning count of six sacks in 28 attempts. That latter number can not be emphasized enough. Despite never trailing at any time, and holding a lead of at least 14 points over the final 35 minutes of play, when play action fakes were a part of almost all pass plays, Henne was sacked as many times in those 28 attempts as the Bills have picked up in 149 attempts in all other games. Now Henne has to go up against not only one of the most complex defenses in the league, but also one that gets the boost of Calvin Pace returning to the lineup (suspension served), adding another pass rushing threat. The Jets have only allowed one offensive TD in the first half of a game this season, and that is despite facing the likes of veterans Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub and Kerry Collins. They can not only throw things at Henne that he is not ready for, but remember how Ryan completely shackled those Dolphin ?Wildcat? sets in the playoffs last January. So why not the full game Under? Because at some point the trailing team is going to have to open up, and with Sanchez and Henne already having thrown ?Pick 6?s? this season we would not want the early flow to become muddle by late mistakes. Our focus will be the first two quarters, with the pleasure of cashing the ticket at halftime.
