I buy all my physical from APMEX.com....not only the cheapest around but just an outstanding company to do biz with
local dealers are fine if you can find a guy who doesn't gouge you over the spot price
I've heard ALOT of good things about goldmoney. Turk is stand up guy over there...next best thing to digging a hole or an offshore safety deposit box....little too high over spot for my tastes but in reality no big deal
local dealers are fine if you can find a guy who doesn't gouge you over the spot price
I've heard ALOT of good things about goldmoney. Turk is stand up guy over there...next best thing to digging a hole or an offshore safety deposit box....little too high over spot for my tastes but in reality no big deal
you know it goes in spurts....NFL is impossible to cap, and now that "parity" has arrived with CFB that has toughened up too. I took a sabatical last week after a real nice run
may I suggest using the pops69 37/53 halftime system for college hoops? - should be good for some nice coin
I'll check out that usa today article now....mfers have put computer chips in the new passports and I can't find my old one
hno:
jesus christ I got my ass kicked today bad
I think it's perhaps the worst single day loss for me yet....just multiple catastrophes. Don't ever let a frieind talk you into a "sure thing" JSDA
Still predicting we see that double bottom soon from the AUG lows and then a .50 bps cut in DEC by the joos....also I look for the SIRI/XM merger to be approved by the DOJ within 2 weeks...I'm long 22K shares at breakeven.
I think it's perhaps the worst single day loss for me yet....just multiple catastrophes. Don't ever let a frieind talk you into a "sure thing" JSDA
Still predicting we see that double bottom soon from the AUG lows and then a .50 bps cut in DEC by the joos....also I look for the SIRI/XM merger to be approved by the DOJ within 2 weeks...I'm long 22K shares at breakeven.
i am not a regular here...but thought this might be of interest to some of you. it seems that someone is going to go down, my money on ML but who knows, could be a foreign entity.
they are up to their eyeballs with our subprime paper, too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a38Zj8V6tS8U&refer=home
they are up to their eyeballs with our subprime paper, too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a38Zj8V6tS8U&refer=home
A good rundown of the CDOs, the next big problem as things go pop
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Depew's daily Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:
1. Carina: CD-Oh-No
Standard & Poor's said a collateralized debt obligation managed by State Street (STT) began liquidating its assets, prompting the ratings firm to slice the investment vehicle's ratings as much as 18 levels, according to Bloomberg.
* It's an important story.
* Carina CDO Ltd., the CDO in question, is the first CDO to begin unwinding.
* According to S&P, the ratings on the most senior class of Carina CDO Ltd. were lowered to BB, two levels below investment grade, from AAA, while another AAA class was slashed 18 steps to CCC-.
* For all intents and purposes that means it is practically bankrupt.
* "The chance of material losses to noteholders is high, New York-based S&P said," according to Bloomberg.
2. What Is a CDO?
Ok, something called Carina CDO Ltd. has been downgraded by S&P and has begun liquidating assets, but what does this mean for me?
* Carina was originally a $1.5 billion CDO issued in September 2006.
* A CDO, collateralized debt obligation, is a type of asset-backed security, sometimes called a "structured security product."
* That's a fancy way of saying it is something you can invest in that generates cash.
* How does that "cash flow" happen?
* First. the CDO "creator' buys an inventory of asset-backed securities.
* Asset-backed securities are finance-geek speak for a bond or a note that is "collateralized" by the cash flows generated.
* If you buy a bond, you are loaning the bond issuer money in return for regular interest payments.
* So, for simplicity's sake, a CDO creator buys an inventory of asset-backed securities and then sells the rights to the cash flows generated by the inventory to investors.
* These rights are called tranches.
* Because not all bonds and notes have equal risk, some are riskier than others, the tranches are rated accordingly.
* The highest rated tranches are Senior (rated AAA, the most creditworthy), followed by Mezzanine (rated AA to BB) and the lowest rated Equity level (which are unrated).
* Theoretically a CDO makes it possible to "spread the risk" among different investors, and this spreading of risk serves an important economic function by enabling ventures that might otherwise seem to risky to one party to obtain financing from a pool of investors.
3. Down In the Tranches
What has happened today is that the most Senor tranch of the Carina CDO (the highest rated tranch) were downgraded two levels from AAA to BB, two levels below investment grade, while another AAA class was downgraded an astonishing 18 levels to CCC-.
* Why does the downgrade matter?
* Sometimes holders of the CDO are required to liquidate if a downgrade takes place, which is called an "event of default," below a pre-determined level.
* In this case the senior noteholders may have decided on their own to liquidate following the downgrade.
* What is also unique about this downgrade is that a AAA rating, the highest rating offered by S&P was overnight lowered to CCC -.
* The CCC- S&P rating means the financial security characteristics are very weak and the issuer is dependent on favorable business conditions to meet financial commitments.
* In other words, the cash flow kicked off by the tranch in question is in jeopardy.
4. Dominoes
The liquidation of the Carina CDO was one of the issues Citigroup (C) was concerned about in their conference call this week; the point at which holders of senior notes say they are no longer willing to risk the fact that the current cash flows will continue on without impairment.
* In the conference call Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said that although the ABX Indices were implying serious value declines in real estate and ultimately cash flow impairment, Citigroup is not yet seeing these cash flows impaired.
* The key is "not yet."
* As Crittenden said, "Now, when we have thought about taking these marks we have obviously if you look at what the ABX would imply in terms of real estate price reduction it starts to imply very, very high numbers of price reduction in real estate."
* Crittenden was referring to the ABX Indices and the fact the firm is not yet seeing cash flow impairment that the indices are implying.
* As a result, they are not yet conceding defeat to the ABX Indices and not yet willing to mark accordingly, opting instead for a projected range.
* Crittenden put it like this: "I guess our view is that it's unlikely that those very high levels of price reduction in real estate will take place so what's actually happening is implicitly the market is saying that the cash flows associated with those securities have become more risky and so as we have thought about valuing those cash flows we have put different discount rates on those cash flows and that's reflecting the range that you see in the estimate here and we'll see obviously how that actually plays out over time."
* It took less than a week for the first move in this waiting game to play out.
* The forced liquidation of the Carina CDO will likely have a domino effect, spreading into the pricing and ratings of other CDOs.
* At this point it's a game of faith.
* Once investors lose faith the "reality of pricing" detaches itself from tangible meaning, creating a new world with different rules.
* Citigroup, and other firms, have been hoping to ride out the irrationality of the ABX Indices.
* They haven't counted on the fact that what once appeared irrational might soon dissolve into reality.
5. Capitulation vs. Kickoff
For equity market participants liquidation events are typically hallmarks of capitulation. In credit markets liquidation events are more often kickoffs, triggers to other liquidation events.
* If equity markets are grounded in a fundamental reality of price discovery that only temporarily overshoots on the upside or downside, credit markets live on a more slippery plane, one based on trust and faith that, despite all the fancy nomenclature, still carries the backing of little more than a handshake.
* How do we "know" the borrower standing before us is legitimate?
* We don't. We do the best we can hedging away as much risk as we can, although forgotten in the shuffle is the implicit acknowledgment that all speculation carries risk.
* One of the issues Citigroup was concerned about in their conference call this week; the point at which holders of senior notes say they are no longer willing to risk - important word - risk the fact that current cash flows will continue on without impairment.
* Consequently, the Carina CDO Ltd. liquidation event is a hallmark move toward risk aversion where the holders are saying We no longer are willing to accept the risk of potential cash flow impairment.
* They are saying We just want to get whatever price we can get for the securities.
* Now, the important risk for us going forward is that this is not a capitulation event, as equity market participants perceive, but a kickoff event precipitating increased risk aversion across the spectrum, not to mention the creation of "observable inputs" in pricing.
* As noted in yesterday's Five Things (No. 2, November 15), the new SFAS 157 provisions that firms have implemented require firms, whenever possible, to use "observable inputs" in pricing their Level Three assets.
* Forced sales, at distressed prices, create "observable inputs"; the result will be revaluation down the line and risk aversion that begets still more risk aversion.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Depew's daily Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:
1. Carina: CD-Oh-No
Standard & Poor's said a collateralized debt obligation managed by State Street (STT) began liquidating its assets, prompting the ratings firm to slice the investment vehicle's ratings as much as 18 levels, according to Bloomberg.
* It's an important story.
* Carina CDO Ltd., the CDO in question, is the first CDO to begin unwinding.
* According to S&P, the ratings on the most senior class of Carina CDO Ltd. were lowered to BB, two levels below investment grade, from AAA, while another AAA class was slashed 18 steps to CCC-.
* For all intents and purposes that means it is practically bankrupt.
* "The chance of material losses to noteholders is high, New York-based S&P said," according to Bloomberg.
2. What Is a CDO?
Ok, something called Carina CDO Ltd. has been downgraded by S&P and has begun liquidating assets, but what does this mean for me?
* Carina was originally a $1.5 billion CDO issued in September 2006.
* A CDO, collateralized debt obligation, is a type of asset-backed security, sometimes called a "structured security product."
* That's a fancy way of saying it is something you can invest in that generates cash.
* How does that "cash flow" happen?
* First. the CDO "creator' buys an inventory of asset-backed securities.
* Asset-backed securities are finance-geek speak for a bond or a note that is "collateralized" by the cash flows generated.
* If you buy a bond, you are loaning the bond issuer money in return for regular interest payments.
* So, for simplicity's sake, a CDO creator buys an inventory of asset-backed securities and then sells the rights to the cash flows generated by the inventory to investors.
* These rights are called tranches.
* Because not all bonds and notes have equal risk, some are riskier than others, the tranches are rated accordingly.
* The highest rated tranches are Senior (rated AAA, the most creditworthy), followed by Mezzanine (rated AA to BB) and the lowest rated Equity level (which are unrated).
* Theoretically a CDO makes it possible to "spread the risk" among different investors, and this spreading of risk serves an important economic function by enabling ventures that might otherwise seem to risky to one party to obtain financing from a pool of investors.
3. Down In the Tranches
What has happened today is that the most Senor tranch of the Carina CDO (the highest rated tranch) were downgraded two levels from AAA to BB, two levels below investment grade, while another AAA class was downgraded an astonishing 18 levels to CCC-.
* Why does the downgrade matter?
* Sometimes holders of the CDO are required to liquidate if a downgrade takes place, which is called an "event of default," below a pre-determined level.
* In this case the senior noteholders may have decided on their own to liquidate following the downgrade.
* What is also unique about this downgrade is that a AAA rating, the highest rating offered by S&P was overnight lowered to CCC -.
* The CCC- S&P rating means the financial security characteristics are very weak and the issuer is dependent on favorable business conditions to meet financial commitments.
* In other words, the cash flow kicked off by the tranch in question is in jeopardy.
4. Dominoes
The liquidation of the Carina CDO was one of the issues Citigroup (C) was concerned about in their conference call this week; the point at which holders of senior notes say they are no longer willing to risk the fact that the current cash flows will continue on without impairment.
* In the conference call Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said that although the ABX Indices were implying serious value declines in real estate and ultimately cash flow impairment, Citigroup is not yet seeing these cash flows impaired.
* The key is "not yet."
* As Crittenden said, "Now, when we have thought about taking these marks we have obviously if you look at what the ABX would imply in terms of real estate price reduction it starts to imply very, very high numbers of price reduction in real estate."
* Crittenden was referring to the ABX Indices and the fact the firm is not yet seeing cash flow impairment that the indices are implying.
* As a result, they are not yet conceding defeat to the ABX Indices and not yet willing to mark accordingly, opting instead for a projected range.
* Crittenden put it like this: "I guess our view is that it's unlikely that those very high levels of price reduction in real estate will take place so what's actually happening is implicitly the market is saying that the cash flows associated with those securities have become more risky and so as we have thought about valuing those cash flows we have put different discount rates on those cash flows and that's reflecting the range that you see in the estimate here and we'll see obviously how that actually plays out over time."
* It took less than a week for the first move in this waiting game to play out.
* The forced liquidation of the Carina CDO will likely have a domino effect, spreading into the pricing and ratings of other CDOs.
* At this point it's a game of faith.
* Once investors lose faith the "reality of pricing" detaches itself from tangible meaning, creating a new world with different rules.
* Citigroup, and other firms, have been hoping to ride out the irrationality of the ABX Indices.
* They haven't counted on the fact that what once appeared irrational might soon dissolve into reality.
5. Capitulation vs. Kickoff
For equity market participants liquidation events are typically hallmarks of capitulation. In credit markets liquidation events are more often kickoffs, triggers to other liquidation events.
* If equity markets are grounded in a fundamental reality of price discovery that only temporarily overshoots on the upside or downside, credit markets live on a more slippery plane, one based on trust and faith that, despite all the fancy nomenclature, still carries the backing of little more than a handshake.
* How do we "know" the borrower standing before us is legitimate?
* We don't. We do the best we can hedging away as much risk as we can, although forgotten in the shuffle is the implicit acknowledgment that all speculation carries risk.
* One of the issues Citigroup was concerned about in their conference call this week; the point at which holders of senior notes say they are no longer willing to risk - important word - risk the fact that current cash flows will continue on without impairment.
* Consequently, the Carina CDO Ltd. liquidation event is a hallmark move toward risk aversion where the holders are saying We no longer are willing to accept the risk of potential cash flow impairment.
* They are saying We just want to get whatever price we can get for the securities.
* Now, the important risk for us going forward is that this is not a capitulation event, as equity market participants perceive, but a kickoff event precipitating increased risk aversion across the spectrum, not to mention the creation of "observable inputs" in pricing.
* As noted in yesterday's Five Things (No. 2, November 15), the new SFAS 157 provisions that firms have implemented require firms, whenever possible, to use "observable inputs" in pricing their Level Three assets.
* Forced sales, at distressed prices, create "observable inputs"; the result will be revaluation down the line and risk aversion that begets still more risk aversion.
I'm sure the holiday shopping will save things, better have alot of people coming from outside america coming here with the dollar in the crapper to help out 
--------------------------------------------------------------
Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year Low
Friday November 9, 6:50 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Consumer Confidence Plunges to Lowest Reading Since Gulf Coast Hurricanes of 2005
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer confidence plunged in early November to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina battered the Gulf Coast and sent oil prices soaring in 2005.
The RBC Cash Index showed consumer confidence fell to a reading of 64 this month, down sharply from an early October reading of 80.6, when consumer sentiment was on the upswing as the stock market stabilized temporarily following a turbulent August.
However, renewed market turbulence, oil prices threatening to hit $100 a barrel and a continued steep slump in housing combined to jolt consumer confidence in the latest survey done by the international polling firm Ipsos.
The 64 reading was the lowest point for the monthly survey since it hit 61.5 in September 2005, a month when energy prices soared, reflecting the shutdown of Gulf Coast refineries after Katrina struck.
The RBC Cash Index was in line with other surveys of consumer confidence, including the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey which has also dropped to the lowest level since the fall of 2005.
Economists said conditions are being exacerbated by renewed problems in financial markets as investors have become worried by a string of huge losses reported by some of America's largest corporations, including General Motors, Merill Lynch and Citcorp. These sobering earnings reports are raising concerns about how many more billions of dollars in losses have yet to be announced.
There also are worries about the fall in the value of the dollar to record lows, which makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers, and a big run-up in oil prices, which briefly traded above $98 a barrel this week. Since August, crude oil prices have soared by 42 percent.
The rise in oil prices, blamed in part on the weak dollar and increased Middle East tensions, has pushed gasoline prices above $3 a gallon at the pump.
"We have a perfect storm of negative factors affecting the consumer right now," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, a Denver consulting firm. "We have higher energy prices, declining home prices and a crisis-related tightening of credit."
Economists are worried that a deepening slump in housing, which has dampened sales and prices, could intensify in coming months because of continuing credit problems.
Many lenders, faced with soaring defaults on subprime mortgages, loans made to borrowers with weaker credit, have tightened their standards, making it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for a loan.
The housing crisis is coming after a five-year boom that saw sales set a string of records and home prices rise at double-digit rates in the hottest markets. With home prices now falling in many parts of the country, the worry is that consumers, feeling less wealthy as they see their biggest asset shrink in value, will start to pull back on their spending. Such a drop would be magnified by the surge in energy bills, which would leave consumers with less to spend on other items.
That is making for a bleak outlook for the upcoming holiday shopping season. The nation's big chain stores Thursday reported disappointing sales results for October, setting an un-festive tone for the all-important Christmas shopping season. Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
The government reported last week that the overall economy grew at a solid 3.9 percent rate in the July-September quarter. But economists believe that pace will skid to a much weaker 1.5 percent growth rate in the current quarter and slow even farther in the first three months next year, the point many of them believe will be the time of maximum danger for a possible recession.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Thursday that Fed officials believe growth will "slow noticeably" in the current quarter and remain sluggish in the first part of next year before staging a rebound.
The economic weakness has taken a toll on President Bush's approval ratings, which fell in November to a record low of 32 percent for his handling of the economy, according to a separate AP-Ipsos poll.
The RBC Cash Index showed weakness in all categories from expectations about the future, job security, current conditions and feelings about investments. The overall index is benchmarked to a reading of 100 in January 2002, when Ipsos started the survey.
The consumer confidence index for November was based on responses from 1,001 adults surveyed Monday through Wednesday. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year Low
Friday November 9, 6:50 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Consumer Confidence Plunges to Lowest Reading Since Gulf Coast Hurricanes of 2005
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer confidence plunged in early November to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina battered the Gulf Coast and sent oil prices soaring in 2005.
The RBC Cash Index showed consumer confidence fell to a reading of 64 this month, down sharply from an early October reading of 80.6, when consumer sentiment was on the upswing as the stock market stabilized temporarily following a turbulent August.
However, renewed market turbulence, oil prices threatening to hit $100 a barrel and a continued steep slump in housing combined to jolt consumer confidence in the latest survey done by the international polling firm Ipsos.
The 64 reading was the lowest point for the monthly survey since it hit 61.5 in September 2005, a month when energy prices soared, reflecting the shutdown of Gulf Coast refineries after Katrina struck.
The RBC Cash Index was in line with other surveys of consumer confidence, including the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey which has also dropped to the lowest level since the fall of 2005.
Economists said conditions are being exacerbated by renewed problems in financial markets as investors have become worried by a string of huge losses reported by some of America's largest corporations, including General Motors, Merill Lynch and Citcorp. These sobering earnings reports are raising concerns about how many more billions of dollars in losses have yet to be announced.
There also are worries about the fall in the value of the dollar to record lows, which makes imports more expensive for U.S. consumers, and a big run-up in oil prices, which briefly traded above $98 a barrel this week. Since August, crude oil prices have soared by 42 percent.
The rise in oil prices, blamed in part on the weak dollar and increased Middle East tensions, has pushed gasoline prices above $3 a gallon at the pump.
"We have a perfect storm of negative factors affecting the consumer right now," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, a Denver consulting firm. "We have higher energy prices, declining home prices and a crisis-related tightening of credit."
Economists are worried that a deepening slump in housing, which has dampened sales and prices, could intensify in coming months because of continuing credit problems.
Many lenders, faced with soaring defaults on subprime mortgages, loans made to borrowers with weaker credit, have tightened their standards, making it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for a loan.
The housing crisis is coming after a five-year boom that saw sales set a string of records and home prices rise at double-digit rates in the hottest markets. With home prices now falling in many parts of the country, the worry is that consumers, feeling less wealthy as they see their biggest asset shrink in value, will start to pull back on their spending. Such a drop would be magnified by the surge in energy bills, which would leave consumers with less to spend on other items.
That is making for a bleak outlook for the upcoming holiday shopping season. The nation's big chain stores Thursday reported disappointing sales results for October, setting an un-festive tone for the all-important Christmas shopping season. Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity.
The government reported last week that the overall economy grew at a solid 3.9 percent rate in the July-September quarter. But economists believe that pace will skid to a much weaker 1.5 percent growth rate in the current quarter and slow even farther in the first three months next year, the point many of them believe will be the time of maximum danger for a possible recession.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Thursday that Fed officials believe growth will "slow noticeably" in the current quarter and remain sluggish in the first part of next year before staging a rebound.
The economic weakness has taken a toll on President Bush's approval ratings, which fell in November to a record low of 32 percent for his handling of the economy, according to a separate AP-Ipsos poll.
The RBC Cash Index showed weakness in all categories from expectations about the future, job security, current conditions and feelings about investments. The overall index is benchmarked to a reading of 100 in January 2002, when Ipsos started the survey.
The consumer confidence index for November was based on responses from 1,001 adults surveyed Monday through Wednesday. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
