Of course this excludes you personally since you are in the sector.
However.........
Ive been hearing this since gold was less than $300 earlier this decade.
For most people, they should buy some gold and silver as a form of financial insurance.
People have no problem buying things such as car insurance, home, health, life, but for whatever reason dont understand if they hold all their assets in usd and/or fiat currencies, they are neither diversified or insured from a currency upheaval.
Hitman, if you have a billion us dollars worth of nasdaq or dow jones stocks/mutual funds, and the us dollar is worth zero, how much "money" do you have?
i've only been saying this to others since it reach 700s
that says i'm not selling the gold i have anytime soon either
yeah honestly hard for me to say what people should do now
as i've already pre positioned for all this
now that its crumbling hard to say what to do....its all about being ahead of the curve in investing
in the back of my head i just have the word CRASH in it reason i'm tentative telling people to get into gold up here
gold and silver got annilated in 1987 when we crashed
crash's take no prisoners regardless of the asset class
1987 should not be considered a crash since it was very short lived and more or less a one day phenonenom.
People that owned gold during the 1929 crash and depression made fortunes.
Same thing during the late 1960s - 1970s.
Again, I repeat myself. this gold stuff isnt going to be some permanent investment, its not a buy and hold for 100 years.
I will always own some gold, but there will be a time to sell the bulk of my precious metals, but it isnt for a while yet. The market will decide when its time and Ill make my decision based upon that.
People that owned gold during the 1929 crash and depression made fortunes.
Same thing during the late 1960s - 1970s.
Again, I repeat myself. this gold stuff isnt going to be some permanent investment, its not a buy and hold for 100 years.
I will always own some gold, but there will be a time to sell the bulk of my precious metals, but it isnt for a while yet. The market will decide when its time and Ill make my decision based upon that.
silver immediately got hammered in the initial fallout
-------------------------------------
Intermediate and triggering effects after the '29 Crash:
* U.S. business dropped off sharply after the Crash.
* Interest rates declined rapidly.
* U.S. stock markets recovered, and the bond markets advanced.
* U.S. business recovered, reaching about 1928 levels for spring 1930 trade. The economy was prosperous in the spring of 1928, but of course not as prosperous as in the spring of 1929.
* The Soviet Union began substantial grain exports at depressed world prices despite widespread starvation in the Soviet Union.
* European wheat acreage had expanded substantially behind protective tariffs, and provided Europe with a bumper crop that more than fulfilled all European needs for 1930. This undermined the entire agricultural segment of the U.S. economy and changed its economic world.
* The federal Farm Board, which supported farm prices, responded by pegging wheat prices to keep them from falling further - but thus destroyed farm exports.
* There were reports that farmers were responding to the artificially high prices by planning huge crops for 1930.
* All exports and imports were now in rapid, uninterrupted decline, both as to prices and quantities.
* Further price declines hit steel and other manufactured items.
* The spring business revival ended in April, 1930.
* Huge commodity surpluses overwhelmed the international copper cartel - silver prices collapsed destroying the purchasing power of currencies denominated in silver - and the federal Farm Board was overwhelmed and forced to allow grain and cotton prices to sink like stones, exposing the U.S. economy to the full impact of its loss of agricultural export markets.
-------------------------------------
Intermediate and triggering effects after the '29 Crash:
* U.S. business dropped off sharply after the Crash.
* Interest rates declined rapidly.
* U.S. stock markets recovered, and the bond markets advanced.
* U.S. business recovered, reaching about 1928 levels for spring 1930 trade. The economy was prosperous in the spring of 1928, but of course not as prosperous as in the spring of 1929.
* The Soviet Union began substantial grain exports at depressed world prices despite widespread starvation in the Soviet Union.
* European wheat acreage had expanded substantially behind protective tariffs, and provided Europe with a bumper crop that more than fulfilled all European needs for 1930. This undermined the entire agricultural segment of the U.S. economy and changed its economic world.
* The federal Farm Board, which supported farm prices, responded by pegging wheat prices to keep them from falling further - but thus destroyed farm exports.
* There were reports that farmers were responding to the artificially high prices by planning huge crops for 1930.
* All exports and imports were now in rapid, uninterrupted decline, both as to prices and quantities.
* Further price declines hit steel and other manufactured items.
* The spring business revival ended in April, 1930.
* Huge commodity surpluses overwhelmed the international copper cartel - silver prices collapsed destroying the purchasing power of currencies denominated in silver - and the federal Farm Board was overwhelmed and forced to allow grain and cotton prices to sink like stones, exposing the U.S. economy to the full impact of its loss of agricultural export markets.
Tiznow, you have been posting gold and silver are overbought for a while now.
You are a believer in deflation. Thats fine, but the market is obviously disagreeing with you regarding commodities including gold and silver.
Eventually gold will have a 100 or 200 $ pullback and you will be right. Will it really make you right if gold runs up to 1500 this year and then "pulls back" to 1000?
You are a believer in deflation. Thats fine, but the market is obviously disagreeing with you regarding commodities including gold and silver.
Eventually gold will have a 100 or 200 $ pullback and you will be right. Will it really make you right if gold runs up to 1500 this year and then "pulls back" to 1000?
Asia is consuming most the commodities while while worldwide reserves are depleted.
How much Silver did the govt have in reserve 20 years ago vs today, considering they have none today. Silver is used in many items of volume.
The lights are out along the highways because people keep stealing the copper wiring out of the poles.
China can't buy enough nickle, etc....
It goes on and on, people take natual resources for granted, as if they would always be there.
Commodities only halfway up the ladder
How much Silver did the govt have in reserve 20 years ago vs today, considering they have none today. Silver is used in many items of volume.
The lights are out along the highways because people keep stealing the copper wiring out of the poles.
China can't buy enough nickle, etc....
It goes on and on, people take natual resources for granted, as if they would always be there.
Commodities only halfway up the ladder
looks honestly i don't know what the end game is or how bad it will get
what i'm pretty damn sure of is we are heading for a recession so the best bet to be the most on the side of is short
all i'm saying is you shouldn't have all your eggs in the gold basket
i'll never be going all in on anything....just not prudent
regardless of what happens from here on out
the focus of your positions should short side of frothy equities spectrum IMO, that's the best bet going forward
i've said before roughly my position
own physical gold 15% got my hands on the gold when it was around 400
short a variety of things 50%
long stuff like beer, smokes, utilities, yen (via fxy), hstrx (hussman's fund he did very well during the 2000-2002 bear hedges when things overvalued as he believes now to be the case....read his weekly writings great stuff!!...www.hussman.net) 20 %
cash 15%
secular bears typically last the same amount of time as well
2000 was the start of one in the US IMO
the key question i've said before is how the rest of the world holds up with this
is china, india, brazil, mexico, blah blah, all those economies gonna keep growing at mindboggling rates and sucking up all the resources
or do they fall flat on their face too
that in the end is the main quesiton to ask yourself
i don't know the answer so i am hesitant on the commodity front
what i do think i know is US is in trouble regardless of what happens in the rest of the world
ive posted this before also.
if people think 3 billion people in asia are going to return to using ricksaws just becasue mr and mrs john and jane smith here in usa can no longer borrow against their overvalue house to buy new imported cars, clothes, electronics, and tools from asia, you should reevaluate your thinking.
yes, there will be a severe hiccup in china and the rest of the asian exporting economies if we crash here in the us, but as time passes and the middle class grows in china, they will be less dependent upon our consumption.
actually, i would argue that the us is nearly as dependent upon the cheap asian goods & labor and their willingness to loan us money that upon examination we probably cannot repay.
if people think 3 billion people in asia are going to return to using ricksaws just becasue mr and mrs john and jane smith here in usa can no longer borrow against their overvalue house to buy new imported cars, clothes, electronics, and tools from asia, you should reevaluate your thinking.
yes, there will be a severe hiccup in china and the rest of the asian exporting economies if we crash here in the us, but as time passes and the middle class grows in china, they will be less dependent upon our consumption.
actually, i would argue that the us is nearly as dependent upon the cheap asian goods & labor and their willingness to loan us money that upon examination we probably cannot repay.
ive posted this before also.
if people think 3 billion people in asia are going to return to using ricksaws just becasue mr and mrs john and jane smith here in usa can no longer borrow against their overvalue house to buy new imported cars, clothes, electronics, and tools from asia, you should reevaluate your thinking.
yes, there will be a severe hiccup in china and the rest of the asian exporting economies if we crash here in the us, but as time passes and the middle class grows in china, they will be less dependent upon our consumption.
actually, i would argue that the us is nearly as dependent upon their cheap labor and willingness to loan us money that upon examination we probably cannot repay.
long term your probably right but i'm talking moderate term investing here
i think you could see a HUGE hiccup in every asset class across the board
these other countries have yet to build up domestic demand to sustain these prices if US economy goes poof and demand goes way down
the cities are booming like nuts, but a huge chuck of the chinese population is still poor and dealing with rampant inflation right now
your outlook is beyond what i'm talking about
believe me if gold prices and commodities in general do collapse i will be there buying with both fists at some point
Tiznow, Ive been to China and most of the other countries in SE Asia several times the past 2.5 years.
Their malls look pretty crowded when Im there.
China alone is building 50-100 airports.
There are building cranes throughout the sky as far as eyes can see.
Cities such as Shenzhen in southern China near Hong Kong, 25 years ago was a fishing village of 50,000 people. Today, due to the industrialization in China and throughout the rest of Asia, is a mega city of 15-20 million.
You won't see a ricksaw there unless its inside a museum. What you will see, are at least 1,000 skyscrapers, multi-story apt bldgs, cars (yes, like the ones we drive here) everywhere, mcdonalds, kfc, wall-mart, large hotels, bars, restaurants, factories, malls, other than the excessive pollution, it easily could be mistaken as a American city.
There are HUNDREDS of cities in China and elsewhere in Asia that will soon closely resemble Shenzhen.
d1g1t
Their malls look pretty crowded when Im there.
China alone is building 50-100 airports.
There are building cranes throughout the sky as far as eyes can see.
Cities such as Shenzhen in southern China near Hong Kong, 25 years ago was a fishing village of 50,000 people. Today, due to the industrialization in China and throughout the rest of Asia, is a mega city of 15-20 million.
You won't see a ricksaw there unless its inside a museum. What you will see, are at least 1,000 skyscrapers, multi-story apt bldgs, cars (yes, like the ones we drive here) everywhere, mcdonalds, kfc, wall-mart, large hotels, bars, restaurants, factories, malls, other than the excessive pollution, it easily could be mistaken as a American city.
There are HUNDREDS of cities in China and elsewhere in Asia that will soon closely resemble Shenzhen.
d1g1t
