Sec notebook

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Coaches Against AP Top 25

Here is how every head coach in the Southeastern Conference stacks up against the AP
Top 25 ranked opponents in their career.

1. Nick Saban, Ala/LSU/MSU, 63-37, (.630)
2. Les Miles, LSU/Ok St, 44-26, (.628)
3. Kevin Sumlin, Tx AM/Hou, 13-12, (.520)
4. Hugh Freeze, Ole Ms/Ark. St., 10-12, (.455)
5. Gus Malzahn, Aug/Ark. St., 9-11, (.450)
6. Bret Bielema, Ark/Wisc, 14-28, (333)
7. Will Muschamp, SC/Fla, 5-13, (.278)
8. Butch Jones, TN/Cinn/C. Mich, 3-18, (.143)
9. Jim McElwain, Fla/Col St., 1-6, (.143)
10. Dan Mullen, Ms St., 4-29, (.121)
11. Derek Mason, Van, 0-8, (.000)
12. Mark Stoops, Ky, 0-9, (.000)
13. Kirby Smart, Ga, new head coach
14. Barry Odom, Mo, new head coach

 

[rolltide]

 

[rolltide]

 

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SEC Bowl Projections

College football is still two months away but there are already bowl game predictions from
several sites. SB Nation's way too early selections for SEC teams looks like this where they
have twelve teams going to bowls. Take a look.

Peach Bowl: LSU vs. TCU (CFP Semifinal)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Cotton Bowl: Tennessee vs. Houston
Outback Bowl: Florida vs. Nebraska
Citrus Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Penn State
TaxSlayer Bowl: Georgia vs. Miami*
Music City Bowl: South Carolina vs. Iowa
Liberty Bowl: Missouri vs. Texas Tech
Belk Bowl: Auburn vs. Virginia Tech
Birmingham Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Cincinnati
Texas Bowl: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State
Independence Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Northwestern

*Kentucky and Vanderbilt were left out of bowl predictions.
*South Carolina and Missouri are not likely bowl bound in my opinion.
*The TaxSlayer matchup between Georgia and Miami would be great.
*Agree with LSU representing the SEC in playoffs.

Way too early for bowl games but fun to speculate................

 

[cloverleaf]

LSU Tigers

Is this Les Miles most talented team ever? It could be, and nothing but a SEC or
National Championship will be satisfactory for Tiger fans. The pressure is on Les
and he better give those wild cajun fans a decent passing game or all hell will break
loose.

Sidenote I: LSU held Texas Tech to 29 yards rushing on 26 carries in the Tigers'
56-27 Texas Bowl demolition of the Red Raiders last December 29.

Sidenote II: Les Miles is 65-5 straight up when LSU hold opponents under 100
yards rushing.

Sidenote III: Last season for the 67th time, an LSU player earned first team
All-American honors.

Sidenote IV: The LSU career TD passing record holder is Tommy Hodson, who
threw for 69 TDs from 1986-89.

Sidenote V: LSU has 72 wins over neighbor Mississippi State and have won 15
of the last 16 meetings with the Bulldogs.

*Play against LSU as conference favorites of 15 or more points in the second
of back-to-back home games. (0-12 against the spread)

 

[XSPower]

 

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Texas A&M

Hard to figure the Aggies this season...at least for me. All four of Kevin Sumlin's teams in
College Station have been ranked in the AP Poll Top 10 at some point of the season, but only
two have finished in the Top 25. Against ranked teams, his 2012 squad was 4-2, but have
fallen to 5-9 the past three years. Sumlin won 11 games in 2012, 9 in 2013 and 8 in 2014
and 2015. Aggie fans are looking for much more than eight win seasons.

For a bettor, there are two situations worth watching with the Aggies this season. Take a
look.

Situation I: Play against Texas A&M following an OPEN DATE where they are 0-10 against
the spread. Last year in this spot, they lost to Alabama 41-23 as a 5 point dog.

Situation II: Play against Texas A&M after they have won back-to-back games and play
their next game on the road. They come in 8-18 ATS in this situation. Last season off
back-to-back wins the lost 41-23 to Alabama and 19-7 to LSU as 5 point dogs to each.

 

[rolltide]

in today's News-of-the-Weird Alabama had to self-report an "impermissible recruiting decoration" for placing the latest National Championship trophy "in an area where prospects taking an official visit would be".

uh, isn't that one of the perks to winning a trophy? so recruits can see it? Stop-SS--

I wonder if Nick is allowed to wear any of his five rings when talking to a recruit....

 

[sendacash]

Must be nice to have such "Rich people problems", RT.

 

[cloverleaf]

South Carolina

The Gamecocks return just seven starters and lost their best player, linebacker Skai
Moore, to offseason neck surgery. Moore, the team's leading tackler the past three
seasons, will redshirt and return in 2017. For all his failures at Florida, new coach
Will Muschamp fielded some of the nation's top defenses and the Gamecocks likely
will rely on this side of the ball. Defensive tackle Marquavius Lewis was a top junior
college transfer in 2015, but managed just three sacks. Under Muschamp, the 6-4,
255 pound senior could thrive. Besides Lewis, cornerback Rico McWilliams and safety
Jordan Diggs both seniors, and senior linebacker T.J. Holloman are the only returners
on a defense that yielded an average of 6 yards per play, second worst in the SEC.
Muschamp inherits a team with glaring holes on both sides of the ball and is sure to
endure a rocky first season...especially if the defense doesn't step up.

2016 Schedule: @Vanderbilt, @Mississippi State, East Carolina, @Kentucky, Texas A&M,
Georgia, UMass, Tennessee, Missouri, @Florida, Western Carolina, @Clemson

Sidenote: South Carolina has won 15 of their last 16 season openers. Last year they beat
North Carolina 17-13. The opener this season will be at Vanderbilt on Thursday, Sept. 1.

 

[cloverleaf]

in today's News-of-the-Weird Alabama had to self-report an "impermissible recruiting decoration" for placing the latest National Championship trophy "in an area where prospects taking an official visit would be".

uh, isn't that one of the perks to winning a trophy? so recruits can see it? Stop-SS--

I wonder if Nick is allowed to wear any of his five rings when talking to a recruit....

The NCAA recruiting rules never cease to amaze me.......

 

[MackDonald]

in today's News-of-the-Weird Alabama had to self-report an "impermissible recruiting decoration" for placing the latest National Championship trophy "in an area where prospects taking an official visit would be".

uh, isn't that one of the perks to winning a trophy? so recruits can see it? Stop-SS--

I wonder if Nick is allowed to wear any of his five rings when talking to a recruit....

Part of the "politically correct" agenda.....I see the "gestapo" is working its way into college football. This is just the beginning.

 

[cloverleaf]

Mack my friend, I will pay your entry fee in theRX college football contest if you
will give it a solid TRY. After you win, all I ask is that you use the winnings for
family members who might be in need or for church needs or veterans.....trust
your judgement.

Let me know partner......hell, just have fun with no expectations and win the damn thing!

 

[cloverleaf]

Kentucky

The faces have pretty much stayed the same, but everything about the offense changed
significantly in just a few months after the dismissal of Shannon Dawson's Air Raid in favor
of a more traditional pro-style offense run by Eddie Gran from Cincinnati. The new offense
seems to play to Kentucky's strengths at running back (four returning) and tight end. The
offense should take a big leap with four starting linemen back and every wide receiver re-
turning. For that veteran offense to go, quarterback Drew Barker must be more productive
and consistent. Coaches seem confident he has matured as the leader of the offense. The
defense struggled statistically last season, finishing 12th or worse in the league in scoring
defense, rush defense and total defense and at the bottom in sacks and tackles for loss. The
biggest question mark is the front seven, where Kentucky is replacing all but one starting
lineman and inside linebackers. There's no proven pass rusher, either. The secondary looks
to be in good shape with four sophomores returning. Fans are getting restless around the
Bluegrass state so Mark Stoops better have a bowl rewarding season.

2016 Schedule
Southern Miss, @Florida, New Mexico State, South Carolina, @Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi
State, @Missouri, Georgia, @Tennessee, Austin Peay, @Louisville

Sidenote: Kentucky is a combined 2-16 against the spread versus Florida and Tennessee. This season
the Cats play both on the road.

 

[cloverleaf]

Nick Saban - Alabama

*Nick Saban has had Alabama ranked No. 1 in the AP poll at some point in each of the past
eight seasons. No team has ever done that before. The previous record was seven, set by
Miami from 1986 to 1992.

*Saban has more wins against teams ranked in the top three than any other coach in history.
He's 13-8 against the top three. By comparison, Bobby Bowden was 10-18, Lou Holtz was
12-15 in those situations.

*Saban is 62-7 in the past five seasons (with 3 NC), and it often takes something just plain
crazy to beat the Tide: LSU in overtime in the "Game of the Century" in 2011. Texas A&M's
hair-on fire Johnny Manziel in 2012 and Auburn's "Kick Six" field goal return in 2013.

*Saban has won five national championships in 13 years. Bear Bryant won six in 38 years.

*Saban turns 65 in October, and although he hasn't talked about stepping down, his most
difficult opponent could be Father Time. He told ESPN he hears other schools use his age
in recruiting...from the classes he keeps bringing in...must not be working.

Sidenote: Nick Saban is 64-51 against the spread during his nine seasons with the Tide.

 

[cloverleaf]

MISSOURI @ West Virginia

Came across some interesting stats on the Missouri/West Virginia opener if you are a
totals player.

*Under is 12-2 in Missouri's last 14 games in September.
*Under is 18-6 in Missouri's last 24 games on fieldturf.
*Under is 18-7-1 in Missouri's last 26 games overall.

*Under is 8-2 in WV's last 10 games in September.
*Under is 17-5 in WV's last 22 games overall.
*Under is 16-6 in WV's last 21 games on fieldturf.

I have not seen a total on this game but with Missouri's sorry offense, I would take
a hard look at the right number. These two teams are 20-4 Under playing in Sept.

For what its worth.......................

 

[cloverleaf]

SEC Championship Odds
(as of July 1 at Bovada)

Alabama +175
LSU +350
Tennessee +650
Georgia +900
Auburn +900
Ole Miss +1000
Florida +1200
Texas A&M +1600
Arkansas +2000
Missouri +2800
Mississippi State +5000
Kentucky +5000
South Carolina +6600
Vanderbilt +10,000

 

[cloverleaf]

SEC - Four Year Standings

West Division..........SEC Games.......All Games
Alabama....................28-4................50-6
LSU..........................20-12...............38-13
Texas A&M.................17-15..............36-16
Ole Miss....................17-15...............34-18
Mississippi State.........17-15...............34-18
Auburn......................13-19...............30-22
Arkansas....................9-23................22-28

East Division..............SEC.................All Games
Georgia.....................23-9................40-13
Florida......................21-11...............32-19
Missouri....................17-15...............33-19
South Carolina...........16-16...............32-19
Tennessee.................11-21...............26-24
Vanderbilt.................11-21................25-25
Kentucky...................4-28.................14-34

Bowl Games: 29-13 (69%)
Against Major Conferences: 59-37 (62%)

 

[cloverleaf]

Mississippi State

The defense will act as the backbone of this year's team, which is a change from years past.
The Bulldogs should have solid players at each level of defense. The defensive line and line-
backers are the deepest spots on the team. Six starters are back, but there's a new DC as
former NFL linebacker Peter Sirmon has replaced Miami bound Manny Diaz. Mississippi
State ended the spring without a clear option at quarterback. It's a competition that will
last through the summer and could linger into the regular season. Quarterback isn't the only
issue on offense. The Bulldogs must replace two offensive linemen, as well as find a power
running back. After winning 19 games in the past two seasons, the most in a two year period
in school history, MSU now enters a rebuilding season in 2016. It won't be easy replacing
the top player in program history, but MSU has talent on its roster. It should be enough to
qualify for a bowl, but the Bulldogs won't compete with the conference elite this season for
a championship.

2016 Schedule: South Alabama, South Carolina, @LSU, @UMass, Auburn, @BYU, @Kentucky,
Samford, Texas A&M, @Alabama, Arkansas, @Ole Miss

Sidenote: Dan Mullen is 55-35 in seven years at Mississippi State.

 

[cloverleaf]

Alabama Opener - USC

Based strictly on talent, a strong case could be made that Southern Cal should be the Pac 12
favorite. The Trojans have two strong options at quarterback in Max Browne and Sam Donald.
Browne's advantage is experience, but Donald is more athletic and possesses a stronger arm.
USC has depth at running back with Ronald Jones and Justin Davis and the best receiver in the
conference in Juju Smith. Add in a veteran offensive line and you have an offense with plenty
of big play options. The defense will have a new coordinator (Clancy Pendergast) who will have
to replace the entire defensive line and two linebackers. If there is a defensive strength, it is
probably in the secondary where three of four starters return. Both kickers will be new this
season. The defense got pushed around last year so one of the priorities is to become much more
physical this year. Unfortunately, no one in college football has a tougher schedule than USC.
Talent versus schedule...you decide which wins out.

2016 Schedule: Alabama (neutral), Utah State, @Stanford, @Utah, Arizona State, Colorado,
@Arizona, California, Oregon, @Washington, @UCLA, Notre Dame

Sidenote: USC is a good bet as a ROAD DOG in the next game after losing straight up and
against the spread. Try 13-0 to the money.