Saturday 11/8/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Notre Dame vs. Arizona State

Free Pick on Notre Dame +

While both of these teams have played a relatively soft schedule to this point, I have been more impressed with Notre Dame. The only blemish on the schedule for the Fighting Irish is a 27-31 loss at Florida State, a game in which they had an outstanding shot at winning. Arizona State on the other hand was embarrassed in their lone defeat, losing 27-62 at home to what has turned out to be an overrated UCLA squad. The Sun Devils also got a gift win against UCS, beating the Trojans on a last second Hail Mary.

Offensively there’s not a lot that separates these two teams. Arizona State is 38th in scoring (34.4 ppg) and 21st in total offense (483.6 ypg), while Notre Dame is 30th in scoring (35.4 ppg) and 34th in total offense (458.3 ypg). Where I expect this game to be won is on the defensive side of the ball and I give the advantage to the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is 40th in total defense (359.2 ypg), while Arizona State is 58th (385.3 ypg).

The big key here is that the Sun Devils have faced a number of bad offenses. Their last 3 games alone have come against the likes of Stanford (73rd total offense), Washington (94th) and Utah (88th). The Fighting Irish are the best offense they have faced outside of UCLA and the Bruins put up 62 points and 580 yards of total offense against this defense. You also have to factor in that Notre Dame has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Everett Golson, who can beat you with both his arm and his legs.

Arizona State is getting to a point where they have been an excellent team to fade. the Sun Devils are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after winning at least 6 of their last 8 games. Arizona State is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 played in the month of November. Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the Pac-12 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus excellent offensive teams who are averaging 450 or more total yards/game.

There’s also a nice system in play on Notre Dame. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a win by 10 or more points, who have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team are 45-21 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Baylor vs. Oklahoma

1* Bonus Play Baylor +6

The running game is big keys for both of these teams and I think this match up is pretty even across the board. Baylor is 0-12 at Oklahoma, but it's time to change that. This defense held Oklahoma to 237 yards last year and Oklahoma has struggled to beat teams who rank in the top 40 in yards/play on offense and defense. Both TCU & Kansas State fall into that category at 8/38 and 32/29 as truly balanced teams and Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas State. Baylor is ranked 23rd in offense and 11th on defense in yards/play. Just too much balance for Oklahoma to win this game by a TD.

Notre Dame and Arizona State face off in another big match up on Saturday. Both teams will face top tier QB's with next level talent. Both defenses have already faced the top 2 QB's in the nation. Arizona State got blown off the field by UCLA at home and Brett Hundley who had 355 yards 4 TD 0 INT"s and rushed for 72 yards on 8 carries, as they lost 27-62. Notre Dame meanwhile kept Jameis Winston in check 23/31, 273 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. Notre Dame can do the same with Taylor Kelly who is playing just his second game off his injury. Everett Golson is every bit as dangerous as Brett Hundley and I think he's got better players around him.

Notre Dame is balanced ranking 30th in yards per play offense and 44th on defense. Arizona State's 50th ranked defense will have issues containing Golson and this Notre Dame offense especially coming off a win vs. Utah in OT. I'm probably going to parlay these two on the ML as I can see both road teams in position for a win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Duke vs. Syracuse

Chip's FREE NCAA Winner Syracuse Orange (+) over Blue Devils

Well, they say 'the third time is a charm'. I sure hope so as the Duke Blue Devils are the public's choice and for good reason as they continue to get the money having won 15 of their last 16 regular season games while Syracuse has dropped six of their last seven and will without quarterback Terrel Hunt (broken leg). The Devils have been out-gained by each of it's last four opponents and as a favorite here that will suffer. Syracuse but will find a way to get the money here. Take ORANGE!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Stryker

Iowa vs. Minnesota

Bonus Play Minnesota

The Golden Gophers enter Saturday’s home war against the Hawkeyes off a week of rest and a heart-breaking 28-24 road loss at Illinois. With a schedule that closes with a home date against Ohio State next week and road wars at Nebraska and Wisconsin, Minnesota had plenty of time to decide if it s going to rise up to the challenge of its tough season-ending schedule or fold late like it historically does. I believe head coach Jerry Kill’s men will come together and pull off this minor upset.

It certainly won’t take much for the Golden Gophers to get up for this contest. The Hawkeyes currently possess the Floyd of Rosedale trophy thanks to a pair of wins in the last two meetings in this series. Iowa slammed Minnesota 31-13 at home in 2012 and drilled the Gophers 23-7 last year in the Twin Cities. Sporting a 15-5 SU and 11-6 ATS record, Minny has played pretty well in its last 20 home games. Coach Kill’s kids improve to a decent 6-2 SU and ATS in this situation provided they are tackling an opponent that arrives off a straight up win.

Iowa sure did look impressive in its 48-7 home win against Northwestern last Saturday. Off that blowout victory, this trip to Minneapolis will be a much tougher one than the Hawkeyes probably expect. Since 1992, Big 10 road favorites are a weak 28-43-1 ATS provided they won by 28 points or more at home in their last game. Provided our “play against” guest is not facing an opponent that enters without momentum off two or more straight up losses, this conference angle dips down to a stiff 14-29-1 TS. That spells bad news for the Hawkeyes.

In order to win back that solid bronze pig, the Golden Gophers will successfully attack an Iowa stop unit that is ranked 18th in the FBS in scoring and total defense allowing an average of 20.0 points and 322.8 yards per game. Coach Kill's men will be in trouble next week but not here. Take Minnesota. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Baylor vs. Oklahoma

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Baylor Bears +5.5---

Baylor should not be catching more than a field goal against Oklahoma. The Bears are simply getting undervalued for their loss at West Virginia. I still think this is one of the best teams in the country. Oklahoma on the other hand is getting too much respect from a lopsided win against a bad Iowa State team. The Sooners looked nothing like an elite team in their previous three games prior to beating the Cyclones. They lost outright to both TCU and Kansas State and were outplayed in a win over Texas. For me the big key here is that the Oklahoma defense is not well equipped to stop the Bears' 5th ranked passing attack (349.0 ypg). The Sooners come in ranked an awful 107th in the country vs the pass (265.8 ypg). You also have to keep in mind that Baylor won last year's meeting 41-12, putting up over 450 yards of total offense. I'll take the points for some extra insurance, but I got Baylor winnings this game outright.

System - Road underdogs who are outrushing opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after a game where they outrushed their opponent by 200 or more yards, are 34-11 (76%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET BAYLOR +5.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick Parsons

Oregon vs. Utah

Bonus Play on the OVER!

I see the Oregon and Utah being a high scoring fast paced back and forth type of game that whoever has the ball last will have a chance to win it.

Oregon exercised one demon last week when they beat Stanford 45 to16. They have another challenge this week against 20th ranked Utah.

Oregon is 5-1 in the Pac 12 and 8-1 overall. They are ranked fourth for the College Football Playoff. The Utes are 6-2 overall this season‚ but they are 3-2 in conference after losing 19-16 in overtime to Arizona State. If they have any hope of playing for the {ac-12 title the realistically cannot lose another game.

Oregon has won five of the last six meetings‚ including a 44-21 rout last season. The Ducks lead the all-time series‚ 19-8.

When you talk about offense you start with Oregon. The lead the Pac-12 with 533.8 yards a game in total offense. If this continues it will be the fifth season in a row they have accomplished this feat.

Oregon’s Marcus Mariota had another sensational day against Stanford, He threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He also rushed for 85 yards and two scores. For the year he has passed for 2‚541 yards and 26 touchdowns‚ with only 2 interceptions. He has also 410 yards on the ground and seven scores.

Mariota isn’t their only weapon Utah will have to worry about. Royce Freeman has 846 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. He had a streak of three 100 yards rushing snapped against Stanford when he could only manage 98. Byron Marshall leads the team in receptions with 40 and receiving yards with 539‚ he also has 307 yards rushing and five total touchdowns. They have six receivers with 250 yards.

The Ducks one Achilles heel is their defense. The Ducks are next-to-last in the Pac-12 in yards allowed ar 458 a game. One bright spot is that they are sixth in points allowed averaging a modest 24.8.

Ii Utah is going to exploit this weakness they will have to get their offense turned around. They have gained less than 400 yards in the last six games.

The passing game and the offense were hampered, when leading receiver Dres Anderson was lost for the season with a knee injury. Against Arizona State without Anderson they managed only 57 passing yards.

Running back Devontae Booker will have to take on an even bigger role for the Utes. He rushed 146 yards on 37 carries against Arizona State‚ and now has a total of 990 yards and eight touchdowns on 183 attempts this season.

Utah's defense is the strength of this team. They rank third in total defense at 385 yards a game and leads the nations in sacks with 39, they will need the pressure in hopes of slowing Mariota down.

Oregon is going to get their points no matter what- That’s a given. How many will be up to the Utes defense and I don’t see them containing Mariota and Freeman for long periods of time. Utah should have their chances to score points themselves against the Oregon defense. Even if Oregon gets up they will still want to impress the playoff committee so I don’t see them calling off the dogs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joseph D'Amico

Tulane vs. Houston

Saturday's FREE NCAAF WINNER is Houston over Tulane

Play Houston (Game 144)

Houston has won and covered the L10 in this series. The Cougars are riding a 3-game win and cover steak, allowing a mere 37 total points. They are on a 5-1 ATS run, chomping at the bit to get to a freshman-riddled Green Wave team. RS frosh QB, Tanner Lee will be on his heels all day long against the 5th ranked UH defense that grabs a ton of ton of INT's. Lee's backfield is banged-up badly which doesn't bode well for a Green Wave team that already averages a paltry 18.1 PPG. Cougars QB, Greg Ward jr. has tallied 545 YP in his three starts. The play-caller has a lot of weapons in his arsenal. Tulane can not stay score-for-score with the explosive Houston offense. The Green Wave is 0-5 ATS their L5 games played at the Cougars, 2-5 ATS their L7 vs. teams with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played on the road. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS their L5 Conference games, 20-7 ATS their L27 games vs. teams with a losing record, and 19-7 ATS their L26 games played following an ATS win. Take Houston. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Kansas State vs. TCU

Big 12 Marquee Matchup Bonus Play Kansas State +6

Wow, this could very well be for the Big 12 Title gents, or at least a big piece of the puzzle gets answered on Saturday in Fort Worth Texas. TCU off a thriller in Morgantown barely escaping West Virginia with a 1 point win in a cold and rainy setting with College Gameday from ESPN on campus, and a lot of national media hype and exposure. It gets no easier for TCU this weekend as the red hot Wildcats who have 1 loss to mighty SEC foe Auburn, in a game they should have won, comes calling.

There is a 3 way race for the Big 12, Baylor who beat TCU, TCU themselves and Kansas State. Any and all are deserving of the title so this is a MONSTER game this weekend. K State is off back to back impressive wins and to note, they shut out Texas who had not been shut out since 1995 in any game, they lost a game to Auburn on a Thursday Night missing 3 FG’s and getting a pass intercepted in the end zone and losing by 6, and they just destroyed Okie State as a 13 point favorite. TCU has struggled in big games all season, losing to Baylor, needing a miracle finish to win last week, struggling to a win at home against Oklahoma, and TCU gives up big plays on defense which bit them hard in that Baylor game.

Two good coaches here, but if you want to fade Bill Snyder as a road dog, think again. In his last 14 road games as an underdog he has coached, he has covered 13 of them and won 7 of them outright, including a 6 point pup at Oklahoma this year. Jake Waters is a veteran QB with mad skills and is a big time gamer who is a leader, and he rarely makes mistakes, and the shutdown run defense of K State is ranked #9 nationally, while the point production from the offense is ranked #16 nationally. TCU is no slouch folks, their offense is #2 in points scored per game and scoring 82 against Texas Tech helped that average, along with the 6th ranked pass offense in the NCAA. This is a huge game with possible final 4 implications down the road, and we are catching TCU off a brutal road trip and last second win, tough spot for them to travel back and match the intensity that K State will bring to this.

One thing is for sure, Bill Snyder is a magician at beating teams he is not supposed to beat, he has done it his entire career and is one of the best (and oldest) coaches in college football. He has made a career out of making me look like an idiot when I have went against him in big games, and this very well may be for a Big 12 championship and with a 13-1 ATS road dog record, and a 6-2 ATS record overall this year, I will take the points in what should be a thrilling football game and a 3 point win by either side one way or the other.

Take the points and Kansas State – earlier the better, this line will drop

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Air Force vs. UNLV

Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #171 Take Air Force Falcons over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 4 pm the MWC)

The Falcons have quality had a monster bounce back season currently 6-2 on the season and they have won 5 of their last 6 games. The Falcons have won 9 of the 12 meetings with the Rebels and UNLV has won just one game since September 7th. Air Force is always a difficult team to prepare for and they are much more explosive this season since they can throw the ball out of the triple option attack. This will be a high scoring game but in the end Air Force pulls away from UNLV to win by double digits. UNLV is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug Upstone

Texas A&M vs. Auburn

Bonus Play Auburn

Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Auburn who average 6.2 or more yards per play, against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Teams that have the offensive fire power of the Tigers are nearly impossible to stop in this situation. How so you ask, what about a 24-3 ATS record (88.9%) in the last 22 years!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Duke vs. Syracuse

Bonus Play Duke

Duke is 15-1 in its last 16 regular season games. The Blue Devils rank 13th in the nation in scoring defense giving up less than 20 a game.

The Blue Devils have a strong coaching and quarterback edge with Anthony Boone. Syracuse has multiple injuries, including at quarterback. The Orangemen rank 108th in points per game. They have been held under 20 points in six of their last seven games and are going with untested redshirt freshman Austin Wilson at quarterback while dialing back their playbook to make things more simple for him.

Making things even rougher for Wilson is the Orangemen are down two injured starting offensive linemen and their ground attack managed just 38 yards rushing on 37 carries last week versus North Carolina State while their offensive line allowed eight sacks.

Under David Cutcliffe, who I consider one of the best coaches in the country, the Blue Devils have gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games. Duke is the fresher team, too, having had two byes during the last five weeks. Syracuse, on the other hand, is playing for the ninth consecutive week.

Syracuse is going to need takeaways to have a chance. Duke, though, hasn't turned the ball over in its last 205 plays. The Blue Devils have lost the ball only five times all season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Wisconsin vs. Purdue

Bonus Play: Wisconsin (129) over Purdue @ 12:00 Eastern

The Badgers (6-2) go on the road Saturday in the second of BB road games vs. Purdue (3-6). In the series, Wisconsin has won 8 straight, the last five by a combined score of 212/54, an average of 31.6 points per outing. The Badgers have covered 8 straight in the series, 5 in a row at West Lafayette. Also, after being defeated last week by #17 Nebraska 35-14, the Purdue losing streak vs. ranked opponents is 2-31 SU. Nebraska started their offense on the Purdue side of the field 6 times, 3 went for touchdowns. Part of the ‘Due deficit was accrued via two blocked punts. On the other hand, Wisconsin smashed Rutgers 37-0 for their seventh regular season shutout in 9 years. Wisky is 4-1 ATS after a shutout. By the way, QB Nova of the Scarlet Knights did start, 5/15 with 40+ yards passing was all he could offer to the homecoming crowd. Interesting, the Badgers play Nebraska after Purdue, who they crushed 70-31 in the 2012 playoffs. Going back to Saturday, we note AA RB Gordon of Wisconsin is banged up, but not to worry as RB Clement averaged 9.4 yards per carry against Rutgers as the second running back. With the favorite 7-0 ATS in the series and Wisconsin 4-0 ATS vs. a losing team look for the BADGERS to roll again!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

Louisiana Tech vs. UAB

Free Pick Louisiana Tech -4

La-Tech is looking to remain unbeaten in conference play as they face off against UAB. LA Tech is on a 4 game winning streak and they are playing good football. Look for La tech to get another win in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

West Virginia vs. Texas

Bonus Play West Virginia (-3) at Texas 3:30 ET FS1

These teams look little like the entities who faced off in Morgantown last year, when good-hit no field Texas emerged with a 47-40 victory against a Mountaineer team who was doing little right as they reached the nadir of their discontent under 4th year HC Holgorsen with a 4-8 SU, 3-8 ATS mark. This year, under 1st year HC Strong, a Texas team with an improved defense plays this game following a 34-13 victory at bottom of the barrel, TTRR, to boost themselves to Super Surger status at 4-5 SU. Mounties are vastly improved across the board. The 3-3-5 defense is a notch above last season, while behind QB Trickett, the Mounties are averaging 36 PPG on over 500 YPG. There is even balance, at 182/4.0 overland, to their spread attack. Big question is whether they can rebound on the road following a 31-30 home loss to TCU in which they led by 9, but fell by a FG at the gun.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Carolina Sports

Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina State (12:30 pm est)

Free Pick Game 128: North Carolina State +4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnny Wynn

Michigan vs. Northwestern

Bonus Play Northwestern +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Michigan vs. Northwestern

Play - Michigan.

Edges - Wolverines: 20-4 SU in games with a .500 even record since 1982; and 30-4 SU in this series since 1966. Wildcats: 2-10 SU from Game Six out the past two seasons. With the Wolves having held seven of their nine opponents to season low - or 2nd low - yards this season, and Northwestern having been out gained in six of their eight games this campaign, we recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Air Force vs. UNLV

*3 Star Free Pick* The Air Force Falcons

have plenty of reasons to be ready for this game. UNLV has upset Air Force in each of the last two years. The Rebels football program had been on the rise in recent years until this season, when things have really fallen apart. UNLV was declared ineligible for postseason action this year, and now they are sitting at 2-7 after having a nice bowl season last year. UNLV doesn't have a veteran quarterback taking care of the ball like they did last year. Now, it is Blake Decker, and he has had problems with inconsistency and too many turnovers this year. The Falcons running game is powerful, and UNLV ranks 125th out of 128 FBS teams in run defense. The Rebels allow 268 yards per game on the ground. Look for Air Force to run for at least 300 yards en route to a revenge win here. These are two teams headed in different directions right now. Take Air Force.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Louisville vs. Boston College

5* FREE NCAAF Play Louisville Cardinals -3

This is a good Louisville team that almost had Florida State last week. They are a strong defensive team, one that can take away the ground game of BC so even on the road I like them as the favourite by a FG. This is an important game in the ACC Atlantic and they should be fired up to get after the Eagles. Coach Petrino will show his worth to the program as a motivator as they bounce back in this one.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Ohio State University at Michigan St. 8:00PM

Bonus Play Michigan St.

Reason: I'm recommending a play on Michigan State minus the points on Saturday night. Ohio State has zero quality wins on the season, while the bad loss came against a down Virginia Tech team at home. Yes, it was J.T. Barrett's first home start (second overall) but there's no excuse losing to the Hokies in front of the Buckeye faithful. OSU has gained a lot of respect while cruising through a soft slate since then, but after seeing the way the Buckeyes faltered in the second half against Penn State it makes us believe Urban Meyer's squad isn't quite where they need to be to beat Michigan State in East Lansing. The Spartans slammed Nebraska, despite the final score, which didn't give a true read of the game. And MSU is virtually five gametime minutes away from a perfect record. The Spartans gave all Oregon could handle in Eugene if not for the final couple minutes of the third quarter and the first few minutes of the fourth quarter. Michigan State rolled-up 438 yards of offense in their 34-24 win over Ohio State in last year's Big-10 championship, shutting the door on Braxton Miller's passing game, holding the former Heisman hopeful to 8-of-21 through the air. This time I believe Marc Dantonio's and Pat Narduzzi's defense will be too much for Barrett to overcome and I don't believe OSU will exact revenge. I'm recommending a play on Michigan State minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.