NCAAF
Saturday's games
Top games of week
Penn State lost last four games, last three by 7 or less points; they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 13-10 at Rutgers. Indiana (+3.5) beat Penn State 44-24 LY, its first series win in last 13 tries; Lions won last seven visits here, all by 11+ points. Indiana allowed 45 ppg in losing last three games; they're 5-6 as home dogs under Wilson, 0-1 this year. Penn State is 2-4 in last six games as a road favorite. Big 14 home underdogs are 5-5 this year.
Iowa won 10 of last 13 games with Minnesota, winning 23-7/31-13 last two years; Hawkeyes are 4-3 as series road favorite, but just 2-3 SU in last five visits here. Gophers are 4-0 at home this year, 1-1 as underdog; they're 6-6 as home dogs under Kill. Iowa scored 41.3 ppg in last three games; they're 2-1 on road and covered last five tries as a road favorite. Minnesota lost 28-24 to Illinois in last game, despite outgaining Illini by 148 yards.
Michigan was outscored 92-35 in losing its first three road games; they won eight of last nine games with Northwestern, last three by 8-7-18, in series where underdogs covered five of last six in series. Wolverines won five in a row in Evanston, all by 8+ points. Wildcats allowed 36.7 ppg in losing last three games by combined 110-41; they gave up 14 points or less in all three wins, 23+ in losses- they're 1-3 at home vs I-A teams. Michigan is 0-5 this year when they allow more than 14 points.
Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight Georgia Tech-NC State tilts; Tech won last four visits here, all by 7+ points, in series where host lost last five games. State lost four of last five games and was outgained by 38 yards in LW's win at Syracuse; they've been outgained in six of eight I-A games. Tech scored 44.7 ppg in its last three games; they're 3-1 on road, with average total of 73.5 in those games. ACC home underdogs are 8-6 against spread this season.
Louisville lost two of last three games after 5-1 start; all six of its wins are by 10+ points. Cardinals had Florida State 21-0/24-7 last Thursday; their next game is at Notre Dame, so bit of trap game here, vs BC squad that won three of last four games, but lost last two home games by total of seven points (Colo State/Clemson). Eagles scored 23+ points in all six of its wins, 21 or less in losses; they're 7-3 vs spread under Addazio at home, 2-2 this season.
Texas won both Big X meetings with West Virginia, 48-45 here, 47-40 in Moergantown LY; Mountaineers scored 30+ points in each of last seven games, but tough to bounce back after 31-30 loss to TCU at gun LW, in a game WV led 13-7 at half. Longhorns lost three of last five games- they allowed 13 or less points in three of four wins (4th was 48-45 vs Iowa State). WV scored 37 ppg in winning all three road games; they've had -3 turnover game four times in last seven games.
UCLA coach Mora is Washington alum; his Bruins are 7-2, winning last three games by 2-3-10 points- they're 2-7 vs spread, with three of four road wins by 8 or less points (1-3 as home favorite this year, 4-5 under Mora overall. Huskies are 2-3 in last five games after 4-0 start; they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, 5-2 in last seven overall as home dog. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread. UCLA allowed 30+ points in four of its last five games.
Alabama won five of last seven games with LSU, with three of last five in series decided by 4 or less points. Bama split its last eight visits here, with dogs 5-3 vs spread in those games. Tide scored 93 points in its last two games after fans complained about 14-13 win at Arkansas. Alabama is 0-4 as favorite away from home this year, 2-8 in last 10 overall away from home. Tigers allowed 12.3 ppg in winning three straight since 41-7 loss at Auburn; they're 3-2 as home dogs under Miles.
Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 Baylor-Oklahoma games; Bears lost last eight visits to Norman, last seven by 7+ points. Average total in last four series games is 72.3. Baylor ran ball for 587 yards in last two series games; they've scored 45+ points in six of eight games this year, but scored 28-27 in last two road games. Baylor is 11-8 under Briles as a road underdog. Sooners scored 30+ points in every game this year, with three of last four games decided by 5 or less points (2-2).
Underdogs won last three Ohio State-Michigan State games SU; OSU is 4-0 in last four visits here, with three wins by 13+ points. Buckeyes are 5-1 vs spread in last six games, scoring 50+ points in all five covers- only non-cover was 31-24 OT win (-14) at Penn State. Spartans won last six games since loss at Oregon (4-2 vs spread); they scored 45.3 ppg in last three games. Big 14 home favorites are 11-11 vs spread. Buckeyes ran ball for 200+ yards in four of last five series games.
Notre Dame (+6.5) beat Arizona State 37-34 LY in Dallas, in game that total yardage was 427-424 ASU. Sun Devils threw ball for 362 yards in game that Irish led 14-13 at half. ND 37.7 ppg in last three games, giving up 39 to Navy's option attack- they lost 31-27 at Florida State in their only true road game this year. ASU got QB Kelly back last week; they're 4-0 since getting waxed by UCLA, allowing 12 ppg in last three games. Pac-12 non-conference home favorites are 8-5 this year.
Oregon scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four games since Arizona upset them; Ducks won four of last five games with Utah; three of four wins were by 14+ points. Utes (+28) lost 44-21 at Oregon LY (433-297 TY); they're 6-1 vs spread this season, 3-0 as underdog- their last five games were all decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Oregon allowed 34 ppg in winning all three games away from home- they scored 46.3 ppg. Pac-12 home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread this season.
Kansas State beat TCU last two years, 23-10 (-6.5) here two years ago, 33-31 (-11) at home LY; Wildcats covered last six games, winning five in row since 20-14 loss at Auburn. Snyder covered 13 of last 16 tries as a road underdog, winning SU at Oklahoma last month. Three of last five TCU games were decided by 4 or less points; Horned Frogs scored 46.7 ppg in winning/covering all four home games vs I-A teams. Big X home favorites are 6-6 vs spread in conference play.
Notes on rest of the card
-- Georgia won 15 of last 17 games with Kentucky, but covered only one of last four in Lexington; Dawgs are 6-2 but allowed 30+ points in four of last seven games. Kentucky lost last three games by 38-14-10 points.
-- Louisiana Tech won its last four games by average score of 43-13; they’re 7-1 vs spread this season- five of its six wins are by 11+ points. UAB covered three of four as an underdog this season.
-- Wisconsin won/covered its last eight games with Purdue, with last six wins all by 21+ points. Badgers won last five visits to Purdue- they ran ball for average of 406.3 ypg in last three series games against Boilers.
-- UL-Monroe covered once in last seven games, losing last four while scoring 15.5 ppg. Appalachian State won its last two games, scoring 53-44 points, after losing first five I-A games.
-- Duke is 7-1, winning last three games by 6-7-3 points; they were dog in two of those three. Blue Devils’ only loss was 22-10 at Miami. Syracuse lost its last four home games, all by 7+ points; their only win in last seven games was at Wake Forest.
-- Vanderbilt upset Florida 34-17 LY, ending 16-game losing skid vs Gators, who won last eight visits here, covering last three. Florida looked like new team in QB Harris’ first start last week, a rout of rival Georgia. -- Iowa State won its last four games with Kansas, with three of four wins by 12+ points- they beat Jayhawks 34-0/51-23 last two years, but lost four of last five visits to Lawrence. Cyclones are 2-1 as road favorites under Rhoads.
-- Arkansas State beat South Alabama 36-29/17-16 last two years, with dog covering both games. First home game in month for ASU, which beat Utah State/ULM in its first two I-A home games.
-- Houston won its last ten games with Tulane, covering nine of them; Green Wave lost last five visits here (1-4 vs spread). Cougars beat Tulane 73-17/40-17 last two years. AAC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread this year.
-- Troy won 35-28 LY at Georgia State, running ball for 249 yards. Trojans are favored despite being 1-8, allowing 40.7 ppg in last three games. Georgia State lost its last two games 69-31/44-0, both to teams in first year as a I-A squad.
-- Rice beat UTSA 27-21/34-19 last two years, winning LY despite allowing 264 rushing yards; Owls won/covered their last five games. UTSA lost six of last seven games, covered one of last five.
-- Old Dominion lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) allowing 49.4 ppg; they’re 0-2 as a I-A favorite. FIU lost its last three games, scoring 13-13-17 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year.
-- Underdogs covered eight of last nine SMU-Tulsa games; Hurricane gained 1,042 yards in last two series games. SMU is 0-7 this year; only game they covered was a 45-24 loss. Tulsa is 1-7; they went to OT both times they were favored this season.
-- Army lost three in row, six of last seven games; they lost 23-6 to rival Air Force last week, are 0-3 as an underdog this year. UConn is favored over I-A team for first time this year; they upset UCF 37-29 last week, their first ’14 win over a I-A team.
-- Road team won last two Texas A&M-Auburn games; Tigers won 45-41 (+13) LY, after Aggies won 63-21 (-14) on plains year before. Total yardage in LY’s game was 671-602, Auburn.
-- Florida State is unbeaten but 2-6 vs spread, despite scoring 31+ points in every game but one; Seminoles rallied back from down 24-7 to win at Louisville last week, face Miami next week- trap game here.
-- UTEP is improved at 5-3, scoring 36.7 in winning last three games, by 7-34-21 points. Miners allowed 55+ points each in last two losses. Western Kentucky lost three of last four games, allowing 49.3 ppg.
-- Oregon State won six of last seven games with Wazzu, winning last three by average score of 38-17. Coogs are 2-6 vs spread in last eight visits here; they lost senior QB Halliday for season last week.
-- UNLV beat Air Force 41-21/38-35 last two years after losing 12 of previous 15 series games. Rebels are 1-7 vs I-A teams this year, with only win 30-27 as 9-point dog to Fresno State. Air Force won five of last six games; they’re 2-1 as an underdog this year, is coming off win at rival Army.
-- Idaho is 4-0 as a double digit road underdog this year, with three of four losses by 12 or less points- they’re 6-2 vs spread overall. San Diego State is 3-4 vs I-A teams with only one win by more than ten points.
-- Marshall won its last three games with Southern Miss, winning 61-13/59-24 last two years; Herd an ball for 579 yards in those two games. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games.
-- FAU allowed 31+ points in each of last five games, losing three of last four; they’re 0-5 on road this year. 0-2 vs spread when favored. Georgia Southern is 7-2; only games they didn’t cover they were favored by 19-24 points. Eagles scored 43.6 ppg in last five games. Texas State won four of last five games, with all four wins by 8 or less points.
-- Arizona ran ball for a ridiculous 843 yards in 44-20/56-31 wins over Colorado last two years. Wildcats are 6-2 this year, but 2-3 vs spread when favored. Buffs covered five of last seven games but lost last five SU, allowing 45.8 ppg.
-- Boise State won last five games with New Mexico, winning 32-29/31-14 in last two visits here. Broncos are 6-2, scoring 47.7 ppg in winning last three games by 5-10-25 points.
