Saturday 11/8/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: Alabama opens as 6-point road faves vs. LSU
By COLIN KELLY

Alabama, where Nick Saban coaches, hopes to keep its college football playoff hopes right on track. Louisiana State, where Saban once coached, would love to send the Crimson Tide right off the rails.

That matchup is the biggest of Week 11, as teams gear up for the final mad dash to the end of college football’s regular season.

The Crimson Tide sit at 7-1 SU and are coming off a bye after dropping Tennessee 34-20, but they fell short as a massive 20-point road favorite. In fact, ‘Bama is just 2-6 ATS, tied with a host of other teams for the third-worst spread-covering record in the nation.

Meanwhile, LSU is 7-2 SU and ATS and also coming off a bye after knocking off previously unbeaten Mississippi 10-7 as a 4-point home underdog. The Tigers have won and cashed three in a row since getting trounced 41-7 at Auburn as a 7-point pup.

“The bye came at a really good time for the Tigers, emotionally and physically. They’ve got renewed confidence after beating Ole Miss, which was a sloppy win,” said John Lester. “We’ll keep an eye on (Alabama running back) T.J. Yeldon’s status (foot injury) as the week progresses and we expect he’ll be fine, but there’s rarely a shortage of talent in ‘Bama’s backfield. No question the Tide should be favorites here.”

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5)

Notre Dame (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) still harbors playoff hopes, but it can’t afford to lose another game, and even then will need a lot of help in the way of losses from higher-ranked teams. On Saturday, the Fighting Irish blew a 28-7 lead at Navy, ultimately having to rally for a 49-39 victory as a 14-point road chalk.

Likewise, ASU (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) has only one blemish on its record as it tries to claim the Pac-10 title. The Sun Devils fended off Utah 19-16 in overtime Saturday, falling short as 6.5-point home faves.

“The Irish have a chance to impress the playoff committee here, but I’m not confident they can get it done,” Lester said. “Navy's triple-option wears opponents out, and it did last week, so you have to wonder if there’ll be a defensive hangover. ASU’s protection along the line is certainly a concern. The Sun Devils will need to keep this contest low-scoring.”

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

Michigan State (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is definitely in the thick of the four-team playoff chase, coming off a 35-11 spanking of instate rival Michigan as a 17-point home chalk, then getting a bye this past weekend.

Ohio State (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is coming off a 55-14 win over Illinois and looking to play spoiler while shoring up its Big 10 title hopes. The Buckeyes barely held off Penn State in their last outing, winning 31-24 in overtime while failing to cover as a 14-point road fave.

“The postseason implications are huge, and we’ll have a ton of action on this marquee matchup,” Lester said. “There was no look-ahead for the Buckeyes last week, and they appear to be focused and prepared for this one. However, with the extra time and the home-field advantage, I like the Spartans to win again.”

Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes (+9.5)

Marcus Mariota and Oregon (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) aim to stay on track in the Pac-12 and in the national playoff picture. The Ducks come in off a 45-16 throttling of Stanford as a 7-point home favorite, their fourth straight win and cover since a stunning home upset loss to Arizona.

Utah has been an upstart this season and one of the best teams in the nation at the betting window, going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. On Saturday night, the Utes couldn’t get the win, but did get the cover in a 19-16 overtime loss at Arizona State as 6.5-point pups.

“Oregon passed the smell test against a very good Stanford defense, and they’ll have to do the same here because the Utes can certainly get after the quarterback,” Lester said. “Utah will aim to shorten this game. There’s no pressure on the home team here, they’ll be loose, and I expect they’ll have some wise-guy support. They’ve been fantastic against the number this year.”​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams

The ACC once again has a Thursday night battle, and this one will be hard to figure. Clemson 'should' be able to easily handle Wake Forest, but the Tigers are 0-3 ATS in their past three and more than a three-touchdown favorite. That will be an interesting game to watch. Georgia Tech looks to win on the road in a place they have fared well against the number, while hoping trends mean nothing and Duke stubs its toe on the road in the Carrier Dome. Florida State will also be in action looking to keep its playoff hopes alive, avoiding a costly mistake at home.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 6-3 3-2 6-3 3-5-1
Clemson 6-2 5-1 4-4 3-5
Duke 7-1 3-1 5-2-1 2-5
Florida State 8-0 5-0 2-6 4-4
Georgia Tech 7-2 4-2 5-4 5-4
Louisville 6-3 4-3 5-4 2-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 6-3 3-2 5-4 3-6
North Carolina 4-5 2-3 3-6 4-4
North Carolina State 5-4 1-4 5-4 3-5-1
Pittsburgh 4-5 2-3 3-5-1 4-4-1
Syracuse 3-6 1-4 4-5 2-6-1
Virginia 4-5 2-3 5-3-1 3-6
Virginia Tech 4-5 1-4 3-6 3-5
Wake Forest 2-6 0-5 4-4 1-7

Georgia Tech at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Yellow Jackets head into this one looking to maintain its dominance in the series. Georgia Tech is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, and the Ramblin' Wreck is 8-3-2 ATS in the past 13 meetings overall against the Wolfpack. In addition, the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings. You can still get Georgia Tech favored by less than six, as of mid-week. N.C. State won its first ACC game since the 2012 season last week at Syracuse. The good news for the Pack is that the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series, but that's the only trend pointing at them. N.C. State has covered just two of its past nine at home, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six games in November. However, if you're a Pack side bettor, they are an impressive 17-5-1 ATS in the past 23 home games against a team with a winning road record, and Georgia Tech is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 against a team with a winning overall mark.

Duke at Syracuse (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.) Duke heads to Syracuse looking to run its record to 8-1 and keep their hopes alive for back-to-back trips to the ACC Championship Game. The Blue Devils won a great game in double-overtime at Pittsburgh last week, 51-48, improving to 10-2 ATS in the past 12 conference games. Duke is also 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine road games against a team with a losing home record, and they are 7-0 ATS in their past seven on field turf. Overall, Duke is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22. For whatever reason, Duke continues to get no respect from Vegas, as they are favored by just three or four points depending on the shop. Duke is also 8-3 ATS in the past 11 road games, while Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS in its past six home games. If you were thinking Orange, it might be better to go under instead. The under is 6-1-1 for Syracuse in the past eight, and 4-1 in their past five ACC games while going 3-1-1 in the past five at home. The under is 6-1 in Duke's past seven ACC games, 8-3 in their past 11 and 7-2 in their past nine road games.

Virginia at Florida State (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.)
The under has been the dominant trend in this series lately, cashing in four straight meetings in Tallahassee, and each of the past nine meetings overall. For UVA, the under is 6-0 in its past six conference games, and 4-0 in their past four overall. The under is 5-0 in Florida State's past five at home, and 7-1 in their past eight on grass. However, the over has hit in 10 of their past 14 ACC games. Virginia fired out of the chute this season and looked to be a friend to bettors covering five times in the first five games. However, they are just 0-3-1 ATS in the past four, including losses in three straight both straight-up and ATS. FSU has made it interesting against good opponents, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, much to their chagrin of their detractors. After starting 0-4 ATS in the first four, and 1-6 ATS in the first seven, they did cover in impressive fashion at Louisville last Thursday. One thing to watch, QB Jameis Winston has an ankle injury, but early word is that it should not bother him or alter his status for Saturday.

Louisville at Boston College (ESPN2, 7:15 p.m.)
Louisville hits the road for Chestnut Hill in a primetime game. The Cardinals are 22-8 ATS in their past 30 road games, and 16-6 ATS in their past 22 conference games dating back to their days in the Big East and AAC. In addition, Louisville is a whopping 17-4 ATS in their past 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. Boston College is 11-4 ATS in their past 15 home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 against a team with a winning record. They're also 9-4 ATS in the past 13 conference games. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's past four on the road, 6-1-1 in the past eight conference games and 18-7-1 in their past 26 overall. The under is 4-1 in BC's past five, 3-1-1 in their past five ACC games and 19-7-2 in their past 28 against a team with a winning overall mark.

BYE WEEKS
Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 has a couple of huge games, and many others of intrigue. Notre Dame and Arizona State have a game with huge implications, as do Oregon and Utah. However, all eyes will be on the game between UCLA and Washington, as neither can afford another setback. All games will be very interesting this weekend, even the Washington State-Oregon State tilt.


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 6-2 3-2 3-5 3-5
Arizona State 7-1 5-1 4-4 3-5
California 5-4 3-4 6-3 6-3
Colorado 2-7 0-6 4-5 6-3
Oregon 8-1 5-1 5-4 5-3-1
Oregon State 4-4 1-4 2-6 4-3-1
Southern California 6-3 5-2 6-3 4-5
Stanford 5-4 3-3 4-5 2-6
UCLA 7-2 4-2 2-7 3-5-1
Utah 6-2 3-2 7-1 2-5-1
Washington 6-3 2-3 4-5 3-6
Washington State 2-7 1-5 3-6 4-5


Notre Dame at Arizona State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Sun Devils host the Irish in a game with huge implications. Last season the teams met on a neutral field and Arizona State suffered a 37-34 heartbreaker against the Irish, so now they look to return the favor. Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS over its past five home games, and 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts. They're also just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games in the month of November. The Irish are an impressive 6-0 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS in their past five against the Pac-12, including a win against Stanford last month. Total players will want to note the under is 22-8 in the past 30 for the Irish against Pac-12 teams, and 5-1 in their past six road games. The under is also 7-3 in AZ State's past 10, and 5-2 in their past seven against a winning team.

Washington State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Washington State heads to Corvallis for its first game since losing a seventh game, and therefore becoming bowl ineliglble. It will be interesting to see how the Cougs respond, especially after losing QB Connor Halliday (ankle) to a season-ending injury. While the road team has covered in five straight meetings in this series, Washington State is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 meetings against Oregon State. The total has some conflicting trends. The under is 15-5-1 in the past 21 road games for Wazzu, and 5-2 in their past seven Pac-12 games, but the over is 23-10-1 in their past 34 on field turf. The over is 3-0-1 in Oregon State's past four, and 9-2 in their past 11 in November, but the under is 3-1-1 in their past five at Reser Stadium.

UCLA at Washington (FOX Sports 1, 7:00 p.m.)
The Bruins head to Seattle to battle with the Huskies. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five league games and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Washington is 17-8 in their past 25 home games, however they are just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against the Bruins, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games against UCLA. The under might be the play, as it has cashed in five of the past seven meetings in this series. The under is 3-1-1 in their past five overall, and 9-2 in their past 11 road games. The under is 8-3 in Washington's past 11, and 19-7-1 in their past 27 home games. The under has also hit in 11 of the past 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Colorado at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
The Buffaloes aren't a terrible team, losing three of their past five games by five or fewer points. The over has also cashed in five straight games for Colorado, and 10 of the past 11 against a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in their past six games away from Folsom Field, too. Arizona started the season 5-0 SU, but they have lost two of the past three games and they're also 1-2 ATS during the span. The under has hit in three of the past four games, too, and is 8-2 in their past 10 games at home. The over has hit in six of the past seven for Arizona at home against a team with a losing road record.
Oregon at Utah (ESPN, 10:00 p.m.)
Oregon hits the road for Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City looking to maintain its dominance in the Pac-12 and keep their playoff hopes on track. Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Ducks are also 15-4 ATS in their past 19 road games. Utah is 7-0 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in their past four games overall. The Utes are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 at Rice-Eccles against a team with a winning road record. The total trends are conflicting a bit, as the over is 3-0-1 in the past four for Oregon, but the under is 5-1-1 in their past seven road games. The under is 5-0-1 in Utah's past six, and 6-2 in their past eight home games while going 19-7-1 in their past 27 against a team with a winning record.

BYE WEEKS
California, Southern California

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers

There are plenty of huge matchups inside college football this week (Alabama at LSU, Baylor at Oklahoma, Kansas State at TCU). But there are also a number of contests between teams that are out of contention, which set up for decent wagering opportunities. We’ll take a look at these squads in Week 11 of the college football season, starting with a pair of bottom-feeders in the AAC.

SMU (+12) at Tulsa – 12:00 PM EST

These two teams have combined for just one win, while Tulsa’s only victory this season came back in August against Tulane in two overtimes. How bad has SMU’s offense been this season? The Mustangs have busted double-digits just twice in seven games, while scoring six points or less in the other five contests. In the lone game that SMU covered, the Mustangs were getting 40 ½ points in a 45-24 loss at East Carolina, while SMU has given up at least 41 points in each defeat.

Tulsa is favored for the fourth time this season, but has lost each of its past three home contests against USF, Texas State, and Oklahoma. The Golden Hurricane hasn’t been horrible offensively, but has yielded at least 31 points in all eight games. Tulsa has put together a 1-5 ATS record in its past six games in the role of a home favorite, while posting a 6-14 ATS mark overall since the start of 2013.

Syracuse (+3 ½) vs. Duke – 12:30 PM EST

The Orange last won a game at the Carrier Dome in late August against FCS squad Villanova – in overtime. Syracuse has dropped four consecutive home games, capped off by a 24-17 loss to North Carolina State as 3 ½-point favorites, ending the Wolfpack’s 12-game ACC losing streak. The Orange has played better defensively after a slow start, allowing 47 points in the past three games, but faces a Duke team that averaging 212 yards a game on the ground.

Duke has lost just once this season, as the Blue Devils are closing a stretch of four road games in six weeks. The Blue Devils outlasted Pittsburgh in overtime, 51-48, in spite of allowing nearly 600 yards to the Panthers last week. Amazingly, Duke has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all four ACC games this season, while facing Syracuse for the first time in school history.

Tulane (+17 ½) at Houston – 3:30 PM EST

The Cougars are getting back on track following a 17-12 home loss to UCF last month, as Houston is riding a three-game winning streak. After Houston knocked off Memphis as a road underdog, the Cougars crushed Temple and USF, outscoring those two squads by a combined 48-13. The Cougars will be significant favorites in the next three games, as this team faces Tulsa and SMU in the following two weeks prior to a huge conference showdown at Cincinnati to close the regular season.

Tulane embarrassed themselves in front of a nationally televised audience in a 38-14 setback to Cincinnati as a four-point home underdogs last Friday. The Green Wave has dropped three of four conference games, with the lone win coming in a 12-3 defensive struggle over UConn. Tulane has dropped 10 straight meetings with Houston, as each of the last nine matchups have been decided by 19 points or more.

Georgia State (+7) at Troy – 3:30 PM EST

The only good news regarding this matchup is someone has to win. These two teams have combined for a 2-16 record, as Georgia State’s only win came in the opener against FCS foe Abilene Christian, 38-37. The Panthers covered seven of nine games last season, but Georgia State is just 4-5 ATS this season, while this team has given up 1,082 yards rushing in the past two weeks to Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

Troy hasn’t been much better, scoring just 37 points in the past three losses since beating New Mexico State, 41-24. The Trojans have yielded 1,158 yards on the ground during this three-game losing streak, but Troy did face two stellar attacks in Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, who ran all over Georgia State. When Troy and Georgia State hooked up last season, the Trojans gained 634 yards, but won a close game, 35-28 as 15-point road favorites.

Washington State (+8) at Oregon State – 4:00 PM EST

Two struggling squads inside the loaded Pac-12 look to end losing streaks this Saturday in Corvallis. The Cougars are without the nation’s leading passer as Connor Halliday broke his leg in last Saturday’s 44-17 loss to USC. Washington State will try to snap a four-game skid as it turns to redshirt freshman Lucas Falk, who threw for 346 yards in the defeat to the Trojans. Wazoo has been limited to 17 points or less in two of the past three games, while posting a 1-4 ATS record in Pac-12 play by somehow upsetting Utah on the road as 13-point underdogs.

The Beavers have dropped four of five games inside the conference, with the only win coming against cellar-dweller Colorado. Oregon State rallied from a 17-point deficit in last week’s game against California, but the Golden Bears outscored the Beavers, 18-0 to close the game in a 45-31 win by Cal on the road. The Beavers are 3-0 in the past three meetings with the Cougars, including a 52-24 rout in Pullman last season as 2 ½-point favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Air Force Falcons (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)

This week: -6 at UNLV

Air Force has lost two in a row to UNLV after going down at home 41-21 last season, but one year is enough to make all the difference. The Falcons went 2-10 (0-8 Mountain West) in 2013 while the Rebels went 7-6 (5-3). This time around, Air Force is 6-2 (2-2) through eight games and UNLV is 2-7 (1-4).

The biggest difference for the Falcons is a defense led by Jordan Pierce that is much healthier and simply having more fun than it did last year. Pierce, a senior who has overcome two serious knee injuries, has brought a livelier and more communicative atmosphere to the unit. In turn, Air Force is allowing just 22.1 points per game. It has not allowed 40 in any contest after having given up more than 40 eight times in 2013.

This should be a favorable matchup for the Falcons. They are surrendering just 145.5 rushing yards per game and UNLV is gaining only 3.6 yards per carry. Air Force rushes for 269.5 yards per outing and UNLV is giving up 267.9 yards per contest on the ground.

Team to beware: Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS)

This week: +9.5 at Rice

UTSA’s quarterback situation in 2014 has been a borderline disaster. Tucker Carter started the first five games but was ineffective (two TDs, five INTs) in part due to injuries to both shoulders. Blake Bogenschutz started on Oct. 11 and promptly went down with a broken hand. Austin Robinson has since filled in and is without a touchdown while throwing three interceptions. Head coach Larry Coker says Carter will get the nod on Saturday at Rice if he is cleared to play.

Speaking of Coker, social media-driven rumors are swirling around the former Miami (FL) coach possibly jumping ship for SMU. Coker insists there is no distraction, but the Roadrunners certainly did not look in top form in a 34-0 home loss to UTEP on Oct. 25, shortly after the rumors started.

UTSA is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall. Rice is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall.

Total team: Wyoming Cowboys (4-5 SU, 5-4 O/U)

This week: vs. Utah State

Wyoming running back Shaun Wick in the midst of being out for at least four weeks with a broken hand. No matter; enter freshman Brian Hill. Hill’s first career start resulted in Walter Camp National FBS Offensive Player of the Week and Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors. He erupted for 281 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries and also caught three passes for 106 yards in last Saturday’s 45-17 win over Fresno State. After Wick went down a week earlier at Colorado State, Hill rushed 28 times for 121 yards and two scores.

The news is not as good for the Cowboys on the other side of the ball, with three seniors questionable for Friday’s game against Utah State. Defensive ends Sonny Puletasi (leg) and Riley Lange (concussion) are in doubt along with safety Jesse Sampson (leg).

The over is 5-0 in Wyoming’s last five overall and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Get Oregon as single-digit fave
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oregon Ducks (-9.5) at Utah Utes

Oregon opened as 9.5-point road favorites at Utah, and money has yet to come in on this game. But I do expect Oregon money to come in and push this line up to -10 or higher. The Ducks have won and covered the spread in their past four games, so bettors will be inclined to back Oregon once again.

Utah comes in off an overtime loss at Arizona State, and that game followed a close 24-21 win over USC. In fact, the Utes have played in five straight games that have been decided by six points or less, including two overtime games. Oregon is a single digit favorite with a high octane offense, so lay the points now before the line goes up to double digits.

Spread to wait on

Texas A&M Aggies (+21) at Auburn Tigers

Auburn opened as a 20-point favorite at home versus Texas A&M and this line will likely go higher. The Aggies were exposed in three consecutive games, culminating in a 59-0 blowout loss in Alabama. Bettors won’t forget that loss, so Texas A&M will have little support in this game.

Auburn is one of the top teams in the country, but the Tigers are in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game against Texas A&M. Auburn is off a fortunate win in Mississippi last Saturday, and the Tigers survived South Carolina the week before while losing at Mississippi State the game prior to that. With Georgia on deck, this is an easy game for Auburn to overlook. Wait this game out, and take Texas A&M at +21.5 points or more later in the week.

Total to watch

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun Devils

Notre Dame has played in three straight high-scoring games with combined total scores of 93, 58, and 88 points. Off those three games, the oddsmakers are going to inflate the total on this game by a couple of points, especially since the Sun Devils have the reputation of a high-scoring team.

However, Arizona State has a very good defense this season, and that has gone largely unnoticed. The Sun Devils are 5-3 to the Under while allowing just 24.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play. Over their past three games, Arizona State has allowed just 36 total points (12.0 ppg). The Sun Devils’ offense is trending down as they have only scored 26, 24, and 19 points in their past three games. If this total comes out higher than the mid-50’s, there will be value with the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The best bets in college football you didn't know about
By KEVIN CAUSEY

If you’re looking for college football’s biggest breadwinners, don’t waste your time betting on power conference programs. While a few top-tier teams have held their own against the spread, these small schools have consistently cashed in – and you didn’t even notice.

Georgia Southern Eagles: 7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS

The Eagles have been a 17-point or greater favorite in their last five games despite this being their first year in the FBS. They’ve covered in all of those contests except a road stop at New Mexico State.

Georgia Southern currently leads the nation in rushing yards, average yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. The Eagles are also 17th in turnover margin. An option team that doesn't turn the ball over (they've lost only nine on the year) is dangerous.

Southern has also benefited from playing a weak schedule. The last five teams it’s faced have a combined record of 8-35 SU this season. Bettor should be wary of GSU when the schedule amps up the last three weeks of the season, with two of those games (at Texas State, at Navy) on the road.

Western Michigan Broncos: 6-3 SU, 8-1 ATS

The Broncos were just 1-11 SU in 2013 so they’ve received some favorable spreads at the beginning of the year. But they've also won some impressive games outright (at Ball State and at Bowling Green).

A positive note is that WMU is getting better as the season goes on and has covered the spread by double-digits in each of the last three weeks (Broncos averaging plus-10.5 vs. the spread this season).

The Broncos are also doing it on both sides of the football, as they have the third-ranked offense and the third-ranked defense in the MAC. The next two games are against Central Michigan (5-5 ATS) and Eastern Michigan (4-5 ATS) – two in state rivalries for Western Michigan.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS

Like Western Michigan, the Bulldogs had a bad 2013 which resulted in them receiving some favorable spreads to start the season. With that, they still had to back into a cover in the opener against Oklahoma. Their last two wins have been solid, crushing Western Kentucky and winning at Southern Mississippi (the Golden Eagles scored late to make this look closer than it was).

What should scare you about the Bulldogs is their inconsistency. On the year, Louisiana Tech has three losses: Oklahoma, Auburn and Northwestern State. One of these things is not like the others. A team that loses to an FCS school is probably not the wisest place to invest your money but keep an eye on the line for the Old Dominion game in two weeks (ODU is 2-7 ATS).

UMass Minutemen: 2-7 SU, 7-2 ATS

The Minutemen are a team that is performing way above their previous versions and have won two of their last three games outright. They do have a backdoor cover against Bowling Green and they've blown some late leads (Miami (Ohio) and Vanderbilt) but they’re getting better.

Massachusetts has covered in five straight games, set as an underdog in all but one of those outings. In fact, UMass was a 15-point favorite versus Eastern Michigan two weeks ago – the first time it’s been favored since Week 9 of last season (-4 vs. Western Michigan).

The Minutemen have Ball State (4-4 ATS), Akron (2-6 ATS) and Buffalo (3-5 ATS) left on their schedule and enjoy a bye in Week 11 before playing two of their next three at home, where they’re 3-1 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 11
November 5, 2014
By ASA

GAME OF THE WEEK

Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Ohio State - 8:00 p.m. ET
The symmetry in this matchup is unbelievable. It's the two best teams in the B1G playing in the most important conference game of the year. Trying to find an edge in this matchup is an extremely tough task. MSU has won six straight games by 30.5 PPG and has the No. 5 scoring offense in the nation; OSU has won six straight by 33.8 PPG and has the No. 4 ranked scoring offense in the nation. Michigan State has surrendered just 20.3 PPG in B1G play and has the No. 5 ranked total defense; OSU has surrendered just 19.8 PPG in B1G play and has the No. 8 ranked total defense. MSU has won 12 straight home games by an average of 24.6 PPG; OSU has won 12 straight road games by an average of 15.4 PPG. The oddsmakers have made MSU a slight favorite here as they are playing at home off of a bye. The bye week came at a perfect time for the Spartans. They are off of an emotional victory over in-state rival Michigan and now have had an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes. There aren’t many negative things to say about the Spartans right now as they are playing extremely sound football. The offense is humming behind QB Cook (17 TD, 5 INT) and RB Langford (100+ rush yards in five straight games). The run defense is surrendering just 95.4 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the pass defense is allowing opposing QB’s to complete just 51 percent. OSU is off of a blowout win over Illinois in a game where the Bucks got to rest the starters, so fatigue shouldn't be a factor here. QB J.T. Barrett has 20 pass TD and just 2 INT while adding 5 rush TD over OSU’s last six games. There is a bit of concern here though as he has yet to face a defense the likes of MSU, and the most similar comparison would be a game against a stout Penn State defense in which he had one of his poorer games (12-of-19 for 74 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT). The Bucks will look to get their 14th ranked rushing attack (259.2 rush YPG) going to aid their freshman quarterback here. Defensively the Bucks have developed into one of the top units in the conference and they get after the quarterback. Joey Bosa leads the conference in sacks, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles and has made a few game-altering plays this season. Ohio State is 8-2 SU over the last 10 games in the series, but Michigan State has won and covered two of the last three, including last year's matchup in the B1G Championship game. The last three games in the series have been decided by just 14 total points. Ohio State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as a road underdog, winning five of the 10 games outright. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 B1G games.

The REST

Wisconsin (-16) at Purdue - 12:00 p.m. ET
Wisconsin didn’t exactly have a warm welcome to B1G newcomers Maryland and Rutgers in the past two weeks as the Badgers destroyed both by a combined score of 89-7. Last week’s 37-0 blowout of Rutgers was particularly dominant as they allowed the Scarlet Knights to gain just 139 total yards and achieve 8 first downs. RB’s Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement did the heavy lifting on offense, combining for 259 rush yards and 4 rush TD. Wisconsin will be chomping at the bit to get Gordon & Clement going against this Purdue defense that has surrendered 252.6 rush YPG (5.2 YPC) and 9 rush TD in its last three games. UW defensive coordinator Dave Aranda has his unit clicking on all cylinders as Wisconsin is 1st nationally in yards per game allowed (253.8), 3rd in pass YPG allowed (150.9), 11th in rush YPG allowed (102.9), and 3rd in PPG allowed (14.1). Opponents have reached the red zone just 13 times in eight games so far, by far the fewest in the B1G. Purdue, while improved offensively from 2013, ranks 104th nationally in total yards per game and 84th in points per game. Before being limited to just 14 points against Nebraska last week, the Boilers had scored 31 points or more in three straight, so there’s hope here for Purdue’s offense. For the Boilers to have a chance at winning, QB Austin Appleby will have to perform better than he did against the Huskers last week. Appleby completed just 18-of-46 passes (39 percent) for 216 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. His poor play led Purdue to convert on just 2-of-16 3rd down opportunities and 14 points. Though Purdue has been a lot more competitive this season than it was in 2013, it hasn’t translated into victories. The Boilers have now dropped three straight and will need to win out to become bowl-eligible. Wisconsin has won and covered eight straight vs. the Boilermakers, winning each of those eight matchups by an average of 24.1 PPG. Last year in Madison the Badgers won, 41-10, and had a +366 total yard advantage. They rushed for 388 yards and 5 TD on 8.1 YPC. Wisconsin is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 as a road favorite of 10 points or more. Purdue is 4-0-1 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog.

Iowa (-1.5) at Minnesota - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Hawkeyes had the most impressive victory in the B1G last week with its 48-7 shellacking of Northwestern. Don’t look now but the Hawks may have found themselves an offense. They’ve averaged 41.3 PPG over the last three and were all over the Wildcats from the get-go last week. They scored the first 24 points of the game en route to a 38-7 halftime lead over Illinois. They had their best rushing performance of the season with 221 rush yards and 4 TD on 4.8 YPC. The defense was outstanding in holding Northwestern to just 180 total yards and 13 first downs. The defensive front held the Wildcats to just 105 rush yards on 2.4 YPC and limited NW to just 9-of-24 passing for 75 yards. It’s a good time for Iowa to break out as the Hawks start a stretch of important games against Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to decide the B1G West race. It was a great time for the Gophers to have a bye week as they are off of an embarrassing loss to Illinois two weeks ago. Minnesota was able to pull off back-to-back close victories over Northwestern and Purdue, but couldn’t do it a third straight time against Illinois. The lack of a competent passing attack really hurt the Gophers as QB Leidner completed just 12-of-30 passes. The Gophers actually held a three-point lead in the 4th quarter before Illinois returned a Leidner fumble for a TD. Leidner’s inconsistencies in the passing game (Minnesota is 122nd nationally in pass YPG) could be the downfall of this team. He’ll have to be at the top of his game this week against an Iowa pass-defense that ranks 3rd in the B1G in pass-defense efficiency, allowing opposing QB’s to complete just 50.2% with 6 TD and 10 INT. The good news is that Minnesota had a bye week to figure out its issues; the bad news is that the competition takes a huge step up from here on out with games against Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin (combined record of 27-6). The Floyd of Rosedale trophy battle between these two has always been a hotly contested rivalry. Minnesota has covered five of the last eight in the series, but Iowa is 2-0 SU & ATS the past two seasons, winning both games by 16+ points. Iowa has covered eight of its last nine road games and is 5-0 SU & ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog of fewer than 10 points.

Penn State (-5) at Indiana - 12:00 p.m. ET
Penn State continues to free-fall. The Nittany Lions lost another heart-breaker last week in their one-point home loss to B1G newcomer Maryland. It was PSU’s fourth straight loss overall and third straight by seven points or fewer. Defensively the Nittany Lions played good enough to beat the Terps, allowing just 194 total yards and 15 first downs. It was another struggle offensively that led to PSU’s demise in this one. QB Hackenberg had another poor outing, completing just 18-of-42 passes for 177 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT with 2 lost fumbles. Hackenberg is completing just 54.7% with just 3 pass TD and 8 turnovers (5 INT, 3 fumbles) in PSU’s four-game skid. It doesn’t help Hackenberg’s case the PSU has one of the worst rush-offenses in the nation. The Nittany Lions have just 162 rush yards on less than 1.5 YPC over the last four games. They should be able to find a little running room against this Indiana defense that has allowed 240 rush YPG over its last three games. Indiana doesn’t have a viable option at quarterback now that Nate Sudfeld is out for the year. Since he got injured against Iowa, his backups have combined to complete just 13-of-36 passes for 66 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT in a little over two games of action. A 34-10 loss to Michigan last week showed opponents how easy it is to roll through Indiana if you can keep Tevin Coleman under wraps. Coleman, to his credit, has still surpassed 100 rush yards in every game this season (averaging 162.5 rush YPG), but he can’t win games by himself. And Indiana’s defense hasn’t proven that it’s good enough to keep the Hoosiers competitive. The Hoosiers allowed Michigan’s anemic offense to gain 404 total yards. They even made Michigan QB Devin Gardner look like he was a star. They are now 101st in yards per game allowed and 108th in points per game allowed. Indiana was 0-16 SU in the series against Penn State before notching its first win in 2013, 44-24. The Hoosiers are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven games vs. the Nittany Lions. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in conference play this season and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 B1G games dating back to last season. Penn State is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite.

Michigan (-1.5) at Northwestern - 3:30 p.m. ET
The fact that Northwestern is a home underdog to these Wolverines goes to show how much the Wildcats are struggling right now. They’ve now dropped three consecutive games after a promising 2-0 start in B1G play that included a victory over Wisconsin. The offense is horrendous. This unit has averaged just 13.6 PPG during the three-game losing streak. It starts with the struggles of QB Siemian, who is completing just 54% for 170 pass YPG with 1 TD and 2 INT over the last three games. They may have bottomed out in last week’s loss to Iowa, a game in which the Wildcats were outgained by 303 yards and were down by 31 points by halftime. A once promising defense (16.2 PPG allowed after five games) has now allowed 36.6 PPG over the last three. Coach Pat Fitzgerald is using last week’s debacle as motivation to bounce back and get Northwestern into bowl eligibility, starting against the Wolverines this Saturday. After losing to in-state rival Michigan State, Michigan took out its frustration on Indiana last Saturday in a 34-10 victory. Indiana, playing essentially without a passing attack (5-of-8 passing for 24 yards), wasn’t necessarily hard to dispatch. But it was a promising effort from this Michigan offense that gained 404 total yards behind a solid day from QB Gardner (22-of-29 for 220 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT). Sophomore RB Drake Johnson had a breakout performance with 122 rush yards and 2 TD on just 16 carries. The Wolverines, with all of their struggles and headaches this season, have two winnable games in a row before its season-ending showdown with the Buckeyes. If they can continue to improve and play mistake-free on the offensive side, 2014 could conclude with a happy ending after all. Michigan is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Evanston, including last year’s 27-19 overtime road victory. Michigan is just 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 road games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a B1G road favorite. Northwestern is 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games as a home underdog and just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 B1G games.

Nebraska - Bye
Nebraska got a bit of a scare when star RB Ameer Abdullah left Saturday's game against Purdue with a knee injury. It doesn’t appear to be anything too serious, and it helps that Nebraska has a bye week for Abdullah to heal. But his status is up in the air when the Huskers return to the field in a critical B1G West matchup against Wisconsin on November 15th. Abdullah’s absence was evident against Purdue has the Huskers struggled to move the football. Nebraska gained just 297 total yards, including 179 rush yards on just 3.5 YPC. QB Armstrong was also ineffective, throwing for just 118 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Still, the Huskers were able to take advantage of Purdue’s mistakes and score 35 points in the win. They’ll rest up and prepare a gameplan for the key battle against Wisconsin next week.

Maryland - Bye
Maryland bounced back from its blowout loss to Wisconsin to notch a key conference victory over Penn State. For the Terps, it was just their second win over Penn State in the last 38 tries, and it made them officially bowl-eligible. They may have started a new rivalry in the process in the hotly contested battle as Maryland’s captains refused to shake hands with PSU’s captains when they met for the coin toss. As for the game, Maryland managed just 194 total yards, including just 33 rush yards on 30 carries – making it their 2nd consecutive game with fewer than 50 rush yards. Defensively Maryland hasn’t looked better this season. They held PSU to just 219 total yards, including 42 rush yards on 41 carries while forced four turnovers. The Terps now get a bye week to prepare for a battle with Michigan State on November 15th.

Rutgers - Bye
After a promising 5-1 start to the season, the Scarlet Knights have now dropped three straight. The three losses came by an average of 31.3 PPG with the closest margin of defeat an 18-point loss to Nebraska. They may have bottomed out in the home loss to Wisconsin last week as it’s difficult to imagine them playing any worse than they did last week. Playing against the best defense in the Big Ten, Rutgers managed just 139 total yards and 8 first downs and were shutout for the first time in 12 years. QB’s Nova & Laviano combined to complete just 7-of-27 passes for 63 yards while the rushing attacked notched just 76 yards on 29 carries (2.6 YPC). The front line of the defense was gashed for 298 yards despite stacking the box. Their next game, a home game against Indiana next week, seems to be a “must-win” for the Scarlet Knights to become bowl eligible as they’ll be underdogs on the road the final two weeks of the season (@MSU, @Maryland).

Illinois - Bye
The momentum from upsetting Minnesota disappeared pretty quickly against Ohio State last week. The Illini were completely outmatched from the get-go as OSU held a 31-0 halftime lead. The Bucks had a 48-0 advantage before Illinois put a couple of garbage touchdowns & yards on the board late in the game. QB O’Toole, who had put together a string of respectable performances, struggled mightily. He tossed for just 58 yards with 2 INT before getting pulled from the game. The rushing attack managed just 106 yards on 42 carries, making it the eight game out of nine that the Illini have been held under 4.0 YPC. It’ll take a miraculous finish for Illinois to win two of its final three to become bowl-eligible. Next up the Illini host Iowa on November 15th.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four Analysis
By Brian Edwards

Although my Power Rankings differ on a few teams, my main takeaway from Tuesday's second release of the College Football Playoff rankings was that the selection committee is doing an excellent job.

After last week’s release, I suggested on multiple radio shows that those outside of SEC Country needed to pop a chill pill. Four of the top six teams hailed from the SEC West, but those teams were going to knock each other off in November. Alas, Auburn beat Ole Miss, which was fourth last week, sending the Rebels down to No. 11. (See, wasn’t that easy?)


College Football Playoff - Top 4

Rank Team Record Future Odds

1 Mississippi State 8-0 15/2
2 Florida State 8-0 7/1
3 Auburn 7-1 12/1
4 Oregon 8-1 9/2


Although it struggled to sneak past Arkansas, Mississippi State was rewarded with the No. 1 seed once again last night. The Bulldogs are again followed by the defending national champs, the Florida State Seminoles, at No. 2. Yet again, FSU had to rally from a double-digit deficit to get out of Louisville with a 42-31 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated.

The third and fourth seeds are Auburn and Oregon, respectively. The Ducks, by virtue of a 45-16 win over Stanford in a double-revenge spot, climbed one notch into the coveted four hole.

Alabama moved up a spot from sixth to fifth. The Crimson Tide is joined by TCU at No. 6 to complete the First Two Out category. Since Alabama plays Auburn and Mississippi St. later this month, the Horned Frogs have no reason to complain about their current position.

With TCU and Kansas State (#7 this week) squaring off Saturday in Ft. Worth, the winner will be in fine shape. In fact, all of the fringe contenders want to root for the Wildcats in that showdown, because Gary Patterson’s team will be heavily favored in its three remaining games: at Kansas, at Texas (after an open date, albeit on a Thursday night) and vs. Iowa State.

On the flip side, Kansas State will still have to navigate through daunting road assignments at West Va. (#23) and at Baylor (#12).

The rest of the Top 10 looks like this: Michigan St. (#8), Arizona St. (#9) and Notre Dame (#10). The Sun Devils and Irish will collide Saturday in Tempe, while the Spartans will take on Ohio State (#14) in East Lansing.

We saw a pair of one-loss Pac-12 teams go down in Week 10. Utah lost an overtime heartbreaker at Arizona St. in a game that came down to field-goal kickers. Meanwhile, Arizona got zero help from its kicker and gave up a long third-quarter TD pass from Brett Hundley, who was otherwise held in check all night.

Oregon and Arizona St. remain on track – if they win out – to meet in the Pac-12 title game, but don’t expect that to happen. The Ducks might win out, but they could go down this weekend at Utah. ASU has multiple challenges in front of it, including Notre Dame as previously noted.

Although FSU is second, still unbeaten and has the easiest path of all teams in terms of remaining schedule, it is the one team that can’t afford a loss. The ACC is weak, Oklahoma State’s season has gone South and the ‘Noles haven’t had to face the ACC Coastal’s top teams, Duke and Georgia Tech.

FSU wants Florida and Oklahoma State to finish strong and needs Notre Dame to play well. But how well? If FSU and Notre Dame both had one loss, would the ‘Noles get in ahead of the Irish based on the head-to-head victory? I’m not so sure. First of all, the game was in Tallahassee and decided by a flag in the final minute.

Secondly, Notre Dame would have wins at Arizona State and at Southern Cal if it wins out, not to mention a decent home scalp over Louisville. Again, though, if FSU does indeed lose (presumably at Miami with the Hurricanes demonstrating rapid improvement in recent weeks), it will need a slew of upsets to occur to even be a factor in the conversation.

But these things do happen. In 2007, lots of teams in front of LSU -- most notably West Virginia, which lost outright at home to Pitt as a 28.5-point favorite in the Backyard Brawl -- lost to allow the Tigers, who had lost overtime games at Kentucky and vs. Arkansas, to get to the BCS Championship Game and win it all with a dominant victory over Ohio State. On that note, especially now that we're dealing with four teams, there is the potential for a two-loss team to get invited to the semifinals.

I think the most-likely candidate could be Auburn. Gus Malzahn's squad already owns huge road wins over Ole Miss and Kansas St. It can add another at Georgia in two weeks. The folks on The Plains want Mississippi State to lose to Alabama and Ole Miss and in that scenario, Auburn might get the advantage among two-loss teams if it loses a serious nail-biter to ‘Bama in the Iron Bowl.

Sure, Mississippi State would have a head-to-head win over Auburn, but the Tigers’ non-conference slate was much tougher and so was its SEC schedule (AU had UGA and South Carolina from the East, while MSU drew Vandy and Kentucky). Most of all, Auburn would have more impressive road wins and its non-conference scalp of K-St. certainly looms larger than any of Dan Mullen’s non-con triumphs.

There’s lots of football left and too many potential scenarios to cover them all. It’s going to be exciting and we’re going to love every minute of it.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Battles

BAYLOR BEARS (7-1) at OKLAHOMA SOONERS (6-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line & Total: Oklahoma -6, Total: 72.5

No. 16 Oklahoma tries to remain in the Big 12 conference race when it hosts No. 10 Baylor on Saturday.

The Bears were able to bounce back from their first loss of the season (41-27 at West Virginia on Oct. 18) in a big way with a 60-14 pounding of Kansas last week. For Baylor, it has been key to score four touchdowns, as the club is 14-4 ATS when scoring at least 28 points over the past two seasons. The Sooners are also coming off a dominating victory, winning 59-14 at Iowa State to help ease the sting of losing at home to Kansas State on Oct. 18.

Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops has been very good at home late in the season during his career, going 19-9 ATS in November games. These two schools played last season in Waco, with the Bears dominating en route to the 41-12 victory. They outgained the Sooners, 459-237, including 255-87 on the ground. When these schools last met in Norman in 2012, Oklahoma prevailed 42-34 with the passing advantage of 277 yards to 172 yards.

Both teams are in pretty good shape for this contest, with no new injuries for Baylor and the possibility that the Sooners will have top skill players WR Sterling Shepard (groin) and RB Keith Ford (leg) both on the field for Saturday.

The Bears offense is one again one of the very best in the nation, ranking first in scoring (50.4 PPG), 5th in passing (349.9 YPG) and 22nd in rushing (241.3 YPG). Head coach Art Briles has built one of the most explosive offenses in the country during his time at Baylor, and this year is no different.

Quarterback Bryce Petty (2,034 pass yards, 23 total TD, 3 INT) has put up big numbers this year, but has not been near as accurate (54% completions) as he was last year (62% completions). Some of that has been because of injuries to receivers, as well as a lot of freshmen playing. However, despite some of the struggles, Petty did throw for 204 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in his lone career start versus Oklahoma last year.

RB Shock Linwood (154 carries, 777 yards, 10 TD) has been the most consistent player on the Bears offense. With defenses so worried about the Baylor passing game, Linwood has a lot of room to run in the middle of the field. The Bears have a ton of talent at the receiver position, especially freshman WR K.D. Cannon (36 catches, 714 yards, 6 TD). Cannon is a blur with the ball, capable of taking it for six points at any given moment.

WR Corey Coleman (29 catches, 572 yards, 7 TD) is another young receiver who has shown to be an elite playmaker, while WR Antwan Goodley (29 catches, 480 yards, 4 TD) has dealt with a lot of injuries, but he is getting healthier each week.

For the Bears to get the victory, they are going to have to get a big performance from the defense that allows only 21.9 PPG (32nd in nation). LB Bryce Hager (63 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 FF) is the inspirational leader of the defense. He uses his speed to run from sideline-to-sideline, making it difficult for opposing backs to run the ball. Junior DE Shawn Oakman (6 sacks, 31 tackles, 12 TFL) has given the Bears a player that can get after the quarterback. The defense must step up against an offense that showed signs of breaking out of a slump.

After scoring less than 40 points in three consecutive games, the Sooners exploded for 59 points against Iowa State last week The offense now ranks 9th in FBS scoring (41.5 PPG), 24th in rushing (231.8 YPG) and 41st in passing (262.9 YPG).

After having a big game in the Sugar Bowl last season, expectations were high for QB Trevor Knight (2,051 pass yards, 17 total TD, 8 INT). He has been great at times this season, but he has also struggled at times. In the game against the Cyclones, he was able to throw 3 TD, but also tossed 2 INT. However, this mediocre passing game has forced the Sooners to become more of a running team.

RBs Samaje Perine (150 carries, 767 yards, 11 TD) and Alex Ross (53 carries, 295 yards, 5 TD) are one of the best rushing duos in college football. Perine was not the starter earlier in the season, but has shown that he has a bright future. At 243 pounds, he is a rare combination of size and speed, and has filled him more than admirably for injured RB Keith Ford (194 rush yards, 5.7 YPC, 5 TD in 3 games), who might return to the field for the first time since Week 3.

WR Sterling Shepard (50 catches, 957 yards, 5 TD) may not be 100 percent recovered from his groin injury, but he is still one of the best wideouts in the nation. In the loss to Kansas State two weeks ago, Shepard had 15 catches for 197 yards and one touchdown. The depth of the Sooners receivers has been a weakness this season, but WR Durron Neal (31 catches, 399 yards, 1 TD) is showing some potential.

Sophomore LB Dominique Alexander (61 tackles, 3 TFL) has the most tackles for a unit that ranks 31st in the nation in scoring defense (21.8 PPG allowed). CBs Zack Sanchez (5 INT, 10 PD, 30 tackles) and Julian Wilson (31 tackles, 8 PD and 1 INT for a TD) form the Big 12’s best cornerback duo, but they will be tested often against the Bears explosive passing game.

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (7-1) at TCU HORNED FROGS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: TCU- 6.5, Total: 57.5

The two teams in the Big 12 that control their own destiny in the playoff race battle on Saturday as No. 9 Kansas State visits No. 6 TCU.

The Wildcats enter this game on a five-game SU win streak and six-game ATS win surge, while the Horned Frogs have recovered from a their lone loss on Oct. 11 at Baylor with three straight victories. They barely kept the win streak alive last week at West Virginia, as they failed to cover the three-point spread in the narrow 31-30 victory, courtesy of a last-second field goal. K-State (6-2 ATS) has done a very good job of playing its best football against good teams in recent years, going 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons when facing teams with winning records. The Wildcats have also been very strong in conference play over the past three seasons, going 17-5 ATS versus Big 12 opponents.

Gary Patterson’s teams (7-1 ATS) have shown to be good at home when they are the favorite, going 40-27 ATS during his time as the school's head coach. K-State was able to get the victory against TCU last year, winning on a game field goal, 33-31. The Wildcats outgained the Horned Frogs, 411-348, with every other statistic being very close. Their only other recent meeting occurred in 2012 in Fort Worth, which KSU also won, prevailing by a 23-10 score.

On the injury front, KSU will miss LB Charmeachealle Moore (undisclosed) for the rest of the season, while TCU has three key players all questionable for Saturday in RB B.J. Catalon (shoulder), WR Deante' Gray (undisclosed) and DL Josh Carraway (upper body).

Kansas State enters this game ranked 16th in FBS scoring (38.3 PPG), 50th in passing (251.4 YPG) and 58th in rushing (172.8 YPG). Quarterback Jake Waters (1,878 pass yards, 404 rush yards, 18 total TD) has developed into one of the best signal callers in the Big 12. He has had to play through a shoulder injury for much of the season, but has not missed a beat.

The ground game for the Wildcats has been more by committee, with RB Charles Jones (92 carries, 431 yards, 11 TD) getting the bulk of the carries. He does a lot of his damage in the Wildcat formation, patiently waiting for the blocks to open up. On the outside, K-State has one of the top wide receivers in the nation in WR Tyler Lockett (49 rec, 682 yards, 5 TD). Lockett is a great route runner with the ability to break the big play at any given moment. Another valuable playmaker is WR Curry Sexton (49 catches, 609 yards, 3 TD), who has emerged as a great No. 2 receiver, and Waters' go-to guy on third down.

The KSU offense was expected to be the strength of the team, but the defense has been tremendous, allowing just 18.6 PPG (12th in nation). The Wildcats have given up 20 or more points in only four games this season. LB Jonathan Truman (73 tackles, 2 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, and also the leader of the defensive unit. He struggled early in this season, but has played some great football as of late. DBs Dante Barnett (52 tackles, 7 PD, 4 TFL) and Randall Evans (37 tackles, 6 PD, 3 TFL) help form one of the most experienced and talented defensive-back duos in the conference.

The TCU offense is humming on all cylinders this season, ranking 2nd in the nation in scoring (48.0 PPG), 6th in passing (335.9 YPG) and 33rd in rushing (214.1 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (2,472 pass yards, 423 rush yards, 32 total TD) is one of the top dual-threats in the country, with his improved passing making him a far more dangerous runner. The top rusher for the Horned Frogs is RB B.J. Catalon (98 carries, 493 yards, 10 TD), who is a physical runner who can bust it to the second level in a hurry. However, he is questionable for Saturday due to a shoulder injury, and his absence would make things more difficult for Boykin and the ground game.

WRs Josh Doctson (38 catches, 602 yards, 7 TD) and Kolby Listenbee (24 catches, 541 yards, 3 TD) are the top two receivers on the team, and are successful in different ways. Doctson makes the tough catches over the middle of the field while Listenbee is the big-play receiver who forces defenses to play a little deeper. Deante' Gray (29 catches, 486 yards, 7 TDs) is questionable in this game due to an undisclosed injury, and with the offense facing some health question marks, the defense of the Horned Frogs will be looked upon to do more.

The unit, which currently ranks 41st in the nation in points allowed (22.6 PPG), is led by one of the best defensive players in the country, LB Paul Dawson (91 tackles, 12 TFL, 4 sacks, 3 INT, 3 FR). Quarterbacks have to know where Dawson is on the field at all times, while his speed makes it tough for running backs to get to the outside. S Chris Hackett (4 INT, 54 tackles, 5 PD) is the top defensive back on the team, and will see a lot of time guarding both Lockett and Sexton.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

After watching a handful of shootouts in Week 9, the ‘under’ produced a 29-23-1 record last week. The “push” (59) occurred in the Louisiana Tech-Western Kentucky and that game could’ve went the other way. The Bulldogs destroyed the Hilltoppers 59-10 and that outcome occurred with only one touchdown scored in the final quarter.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC has 12 teams in action last weekend and eight of them scored 30 or more points. Despite those numbers, total bettors watched the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in Week 10. Duke and Louisville were great ‘under’ bets this season but both watched the ‘over’ cash as their defensive units respectively allowed 42 and 48 points.

The ‘under’ produced a 4-2 record in the Big Ten last weekend and most of the results were clear-cut. The best total run in the conference belongs to Ohio State, who has now seen the ‘over’ cash in seven consecutive games.

Baylor and Oklahoma scored 60 and 59 points respectively in Week 10 as they cruised to double-digit wins and covers. Both of their results also helped the ‘over’ go 3-2 in Big 12 play last weekend. Coincidentally, the pair square off this Saturday.

UCLA defeated Arizona 17-7 last weekend and I sincerely hope you didn’t bet the ‘over’ (71.5) because it had absolutely no chance. We’ve seen that movie before this season and it will probably happen again. Including this result, the Pac-12 saw the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in Week 10.

The ‘over’ went 4-3 in SEC play last week, with Tennessee’s 45-42 overtime win against South Carolina leading the charge. The “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” had some total bettors upset after last week’s results. Florida defeated Georgia 38-20 and ‘over’ (46) bettors cashed tickets but it wasn’t easy. The Gators scored not one but two touchdowns in the final two minutes. The Bulldogs (7-1) and Gators (6-1) have now seen the ‘over’ go a combined 13-2 this season.

Teams and Totals to Watch

Over 7-1
Ohio State: Buckeyes visit Spartans
Georgia: Bulldogs visit Kentucky
Tulsa: Golden Hurricane host SMU
Oklahoma: Sooners host Baylor

Under 8-0
San Diego State: Aztecs host Idaho

Under 7-1
Houston: Cougars host Tulane


Separation Saturday

Six games in Week 11 will feature games with ranked opponents squaring off.

While most look at the sides, we asked our VegasInsider.com Totals Expert James Manos to provide his quick thoughts on two of the marquee matchups that have received plenty of attention on the total at the betting counter.

Last year at Cowboys Stadium, Notre Dame defeated Arizona State 37-34 in a game that saw 34 points scored in the fourth quarter. The total on this game opened 54 ½, which was an error according to Manos.

He explained, “This number has been bet up from the opener and settled in here. The opener was an obvious mistake with 54.5 being a ridiculously low number for this matchup and bettors jumped all over it. The current number is better but still a tad bit low but I don't think you'll see much more movement unless you see a slight tick downward as some groups set up middles. I think we'll see a tightly contested higher scoring game in this one. These two met last year in a game that the Irish won 37-34 and I see little reason to expect much different results here. In that game both teams gained 425 yards of offense and the offenses controlled the pace of the game. Arizona State is playing at a similar pace (78.1 snaps per game this year, 81.5 last year) and is probably stronger on that side of the ball. The Irish are much better offensively than last season and QB Golson is playing at a high level. ASU is off three consecutive defensive minded conference games but have been a strong offensive team at home under HC Graham. The Irish have allowed 43, 31, and 39 points in their last three games and their defense has not looked good as the talent level of their opponents has risen. I made the number for this game 62 and would look OVER, even at the current number.”

A lot of pundits believe the winner of Saturday’s showdown between the Buckeyes and Spartans in East Lansing will claim the Big 10. In past encounters, most would lean to a slugfest but the landscape has changed and Manos has adjusted accordingly.

He said, “This game has been bet down from the opener but I'm willing to fade that line move and grab the line value with this lower total. We've talked a bit in this space about Michigan State games playing OVER the total this season and I see that continuing in this one. No doubting that the Spartans defense is talented but this will be the best offense they've faced so far this season and in their previous matchup versus a talented Top 15 team they gave up 46 at Oregon. Ohio State has solid defensive numbers as well surrendering just 19.9 PPG but the Buckeyes have faced a weak slate of opposing offenses and the Spartans will test them. Basically we have two defenses whose numbers are skewed by the talent level of their opposition. The Michigan State offense is under appreciated and I think they'll find some big plays in the passing game on Saturday. I have the Spartans offensive efficiency at 55.8% and I project them to score 30-plus points. Ohio State is averaging 78.9 offensive snaps per game up significantly from last season when these two played a 34-24 game in the Big 10 Championship game. Below are some quick total notes on the four other marquee matchups to watch this Saturday.

Baylor at Oklahoma: The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series with the winner eclipsing at least 41 points during this span. The Sooners (7-1) and Bears (5-3) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season. This total opened 73.5 and dropped to 72.5, which is the highest number Oklahoma has seen this season.

Kansas State at TCU: These teams played to an unexpected shootout last season as Kansas State defeated TCU 33-31 at home as the ‘over’ (45) cashed. This year’s number is hovering around 57.5 points. Both teams have watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 this season. The Wildcats have scored 31, 32 and 31 in three road games while the Horned Frogs have averaged 47.8 points per game at home.

Alabama at LSU: The ‘under’ has gone 3-0-1 in the last four meetings and oddsmakers are expecting another slugfest on Saturday, sending out an opening total of 47 which has been pushed down to 45. The Crimson Tide are ranked second nationally in scoring defense (14 PPG) while LSU is ranked fourth (15.9 PPG).

Oregon at Utah: Last season, the Ducks rank past the Utes 44-21 at home. The rematch takes place in Salt Lake City and this game pits Oregon’s high-powered offense (45.4 PPG) against Utah’s stout defense (21.3 PPG). Oregon has watched the ‘over’ go 5-2-1 this season while Utah has been a solid ‘under’ (5-2-1) wager.

Line Moves

This segment has become a very popular feature of our weekly piece and all the credit should be directed towards Manos, who analyzes the line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories.

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Louisiana Lafayette/New Mexico State Over

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Louisiana Tech/UAB Under

3) Public Movement – Alabama/LSU Under

4) Market Manipulation – Ohio State/Michigan State Under

Listed below are all of the Week 11 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers as of Friday.


Week 11 Moves

Rotation Open Current
Penn State at Indiana 47 44
Louisiana Tech at UAB 58 55
Iowa at Minnesota 47 44
Texas-San Antonio at Rice 49.5 46.5
Texas A&M at Auburn 64.5 68.5
Idaho at San Diego State 54 57.5
Ohio State at Michigan State 63.5 55.5
Notre Dame at Arizona State 54.5 60.5
Oregon at Utah 62.5 59.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-1) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Arizona State -2.5, Total: 60

Two of the top teams in the nation, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 11 Arizona State, do battle in the desert as they attempt to strengthen their playoff resumes.

The Irish have just one blemish on their season so far with a 31-27 loss against Florida State as nine-point underdogs a few weeks ago and have gone 5-3 ATS this year. They have played six of their first eight contests at home and will be playing their third straight road game when they head to Tempe this weekend. Last week, Notre Dame captured a 49-39 victory over Navy as a two-touchdown favorite when it came back from a 31-28 deficit heading into the final quarter, totaling 533 yards of offense for the game, while allowing the Midshipmen to run for 336 yards.

The Sun Devils are 4-4 ATS and also have just one loss on their season when they were destroyed by UCLA (62-27) as 3.5-point underdogs in their fourth game of the year. They have covered in three of their past four contests, but could not do so when they were victorious against Utah last week with a score of 19-16 in overtime while favored by 6.5 points. Arizona State was unable to do much once it entered the red zone as it gained an impressive 444 yards of offense, but was forced to kick four field goals.

These two programs met last season and played an exciting game with Notre Dame pulling out a 37-34 win while failing to cover the seven-point spread. The Sun Devils had a solid 362 passing yards in the contest, but turned the ball over three times while picking up a mere 65 yards on the ground, as the Irish totaled 424 yards.


Bettors should know that ASU is a meager 6-16 ATS (27%) after having won six or seven of its past eight games since 1992 while Notre Dame is a putrid 1-10 ATS (9%) in road games after gaining 7.25 yards per play in their previous game over the same timeframe.

On the injury front, LB Joe Schmidt (ankle) is out for the season for the Fighting Irish, while defensive teammate DB Austin Collinsworth is questionable with a shoulder injury. Arizona also has some key defensive players hurting too, as LB Jamal Scott (arm) and DB Ezekiel Bishop (knee) are both considered questionable.

Notre Dame has put together a balanced offense that excels through the air (228.9 YPG, 27th in FBS) while adding a solid 169.4 rushing YPG and scoring 35.4 PPG (30th in nation). QB Everett Golson (2,311 pass yards, 22 TD, 7 INT) was huge last week as he contributed 6 TD (3 passing, 3 rushing) and has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season while getting 300+ yards in four of the past five contests. He has also gone for 272 yards (3.5 YPC) with 7 TD when running the ball, and has had three rushing touchdowns in two different performances. HB Tarean Folston (532 rush yards, 3 TDs) has excelled in the past three games while averaging 122.3 YPG and has scored all three of his touchdowns.

He has been able to contribute plenty to the strong passing attack too with 166 yards on 12 receptions (13.8 avg.) and one score. WR William Fuller (599 rec yards, 9 TD) has had at least one touchdown in all but a single game this season and has gone over 100 yards twice. Meanwhile, WR Corey Robinson (393 rec yards, 4 TD) has averaged 13.6 yards per catch while being a big threat in the red zone.

The Irish defense has been quite impressive in most of its games, allowing the opposition to score an average of 21.6 PPG (29th in FBS) while holding opponents under 18 points in each of the first five games. LB Jaylon Smith (59 tackles, 2 sacks) will need to step up with LB Joe Schmidt (65 tackles) done for the year.

Arizona State has one of the better offenses in the nation while gaining 483.6 total YPG (22nd in FBS) with most of it coming from the passing game (291.1 YPG) as it is putting up 34.4 PPG. QB Taylor Kelly (1,010 pass yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) missed three games in the middle of the season and has a perfect record in his starts while being a dual-threat player. He has run for 230 yards (4.8 YPC) with two touchdowns on the season while getting between 180 and 240 yards passing in each of his five starts.

HB D.J. Foster (701 rush yards, 6 TD) started out the year with three consecutive games gaining more than 145 yards on the ground, but has not gone over 60 yards in his past five contests. He is one of the better receiving backs in the league though, with 452 yards on 38 catches (11.9 avg) while collecting two scores. WR Jaelen Strong (821 rec yards, 9 TD) is averaging 14.4 yards per catch and is one of the best red-zone threats in the nation while grabbing at least one touchdown in each of the past four games.

Their defense has allowed opponents to score 24.1 PPG against them behind the efforts of DBs Damarious Randall (73 tackles, 7.5 TFL), Jordan Simone (73 tackles, 2 INT) and LB Laiu Moeakiola (43 tackles, 4 sacks).

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (6-3) at AUBURN TIGERS (7-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Auburn -21.5, Total: 68

No. 3 Auburn hosts slumping Texas A&M on Saturday afternoon as it looks to stay in the new playoff picture.

The Aggies looked to be a force at the start of the season with SU victories in each of their first five games (3-2 ATS) in which they had solid wins against both South Carolina (52-28) as nine-point underdogs and Arkansas (35-28) as 8.5-point favorites. Since that time, they have gone 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) while losing their three SEC games by an average of 30.3 PPG, including being shut out 59-0 by Alabama a few weeks ago while getting 11.5 points. The team got more bad news as QB Kenny Hill was suspended for two games and the effects were immediate as they narrowly avoided losing as 32-point favorites against Louisiana-Monroe last week. They did end up getting the win by a score of 21-16 while they turned the ball over twice and were outgained 347-243 by the 3-5 Warhawks.

As Texas A&M spirals out of control, the Tigers (4-4 ATS) have jumped into the playoff equation with big victories over Kansas State, LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss this season. Auburn's victory over the Rebels last week was huge, as it won 35-31 as a one-point underdog with the teams combining for 989 yards of total offense. The Tigers ran for 248 yards (5.4 YPC) and three scores in the victory.

The past two meetings have been high-scoring with the average total being 85 while Auburn came away with a 45-21 win on the road last season as a 12.5-point underdog. In that game there was 1,217 yards of offense between the two teams while the Tigers overcame a 24-17 halftime deficit behind 379 yards on the ground (6.3 YPC).

Trends show that Auburn is 0-2 ATS this season after playing its previous game on the road while being an impressive 11-1 ATS after one or more straight Overs in the past two years.

QB Kenny Hill (suspension) will be missing this game for the Aggies while star DB Deshazor Everett (elbow) is doubtful. Auburn is not dealing with any significant injuries with RB Roc Thomas (ankle) upgraded to probable.

Texas A&M has scored 36.4 PPG this season (20th in nation) and has done well through the air (335.4 YPG, 7th in FBS), but will be without its starting quarterback for this one while it leans more on the rushing attack which has averaged 150.0 YPG (81st in FBS).

Freshman QB Kyle Allen (370 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) will get the start for this contest. He was one of the top recruits in the nation before deciding to come to College Station, but struggled in his start last week against the Warhawks as he went 13-for-28 (46%) with 106 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

He will need plenty of support from HBs Tra Carson (326 rush yards, 5 TD), Trey Williams (313 rush yards, 3 TD) and Brandon Williams (280 rush yards, 3 TD) who have collectively averaged 5.0 YPC. Six different receivers on the team have more than 25 receptions with WR Josh Reynolds (533 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the team in yards and scores while WRs Speedy Noil (461 rec yards, 4 TD), Malcome Kennedy (386 rec yards, 2 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (377 rec yards, 3 TD) all have more than 35 catches.

The defense for the program has not been impressive while allowing their opposition to score 25.9 PPG (65th in nation), as DB Howard Matthews (52 tackles, 2.5 TFL) will need to step up his performance to make this one competitive.

Auburn has been one of the elite offenses in the nation this season while scoring the 14th-most points (38.8 PPG) behind a great rushing attack (276.9 YPG, 9th in FBS) and average passing (220.6 YPG, 75th in nation).

QB Nick Marshall (1,357 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) has been the key to the big offensive output as he has gone over 200 yards passing in four of his past six games while also gaining 631 yards (6.6 YPC) with nine touchdowns on the ground. He has thrown multiple TD passes in five of his past six games, and has double-digit rushing attempts in each of his past seven performances while running for at least 100 yards four times this year.

Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (969 rush yards, 7 TD) who has averaged 5.4 YPC and has hit the century mark in 6-of-8 games in 2014. He is a workhorse with at least 20 carries in six of eight contests, but has not had a reception in any of the past three games. WR D’haquille Williams (598 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top receiver on the year with 18 more catches than any teammate, and has surpassed 100 yards in three separate games this season.

Their defense has allowed 22.0 PPG (35th in FBS) on the year behind the play of DBs Johnathan Ford (60 tackles, 2 INT), Jonathan Jones (23 tackles, 5 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (52 tackles, 8 TFL, 1 INT).

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (4-5) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Florida State -20.5, Total: 55.5

No. 2 Florida State looks to continue its second perfect season in a row when it hosts Virginia on Saturday evening.

The Cavaliers started out the season looking like a team that could really keep up with anyone. They covered in each of their first five games including playing well against UCLA with a 28-20 loss as 19-point underdogs, winning 23-21 as four-point underdogs to Louisville and suffered an eight-point defeat (41-33) when they traveled to BYU as 16-point 'dogs. But since then, UVa has fallen off, with failing to cover in each of its past four games (1-3 SU). Last week the Cavaliers headed to 4-point favorite Georgia Tech and were dominated, falling 35-10 while allowing 409 yards of offense.

The Seminoles have not suffered an SU loss since Nov. 12, 2012 (24 games) but have not done well for bettors this year, as they are a meager 2-6 ATS. But they have still defeated their opponents by an average of 15.6 PPG while being at least double-digit favorites in all but the most recent two contests. FSU was able to cover against Louisville in its most recent game last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Despite falling behind 21-0 early on, the team secured a 42-31 victory behind 401 passing yards.

These programs have not faced each other since 2011 when Virginia pulled of a big upset, winning 14-13 on the road as a 17-point underdog while totaling just 316 yards of offense. Interestingly enough, these two teams have played some low-scoring games, and the total has gone Under 8-of-10 times since 1992.

Bettors should know that the Seminoles are an impressive 11-1 ATS in home games after seven consecutive SU wins since 1992, but are also a poor 3-9 ATS (25%) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 in the past three seasons.

The Cavaliers have lost some of their receiving depth with WR Miles Gooch (knee) out for the season and WR Andre Levrone (shoulder) listed as questionable. For Florida State, QB Jameis Winston (ankle) is probable, while HB Mario Pender (ankle) is questionable.

Virginia has not looked horrible on offense thanks to a good balance between the passing game (243.9 YPG) and rushing attack (153.7 YPG), as the school is putting up a mere 26.7 PPG. QB Greyson Lambert (1,055 pass yards, 5 TD, 8 INT) has struggled over his past two games with four interceptions while connecting on less than 60% of his passes in each of those contests. He has been expected to throw more, and after attempting just 24.3 passes per game in his first four contests, he has thrown the ball an average of 36 times in the past two games.

HB Kevin Parks (626 rush yards, 4 TD) has averaged a low 4.2 YPC on the year while going over the century mark once. He has been able to contribute to the passing game as well with 24 catches for 139 yards (5.8 avg) while tallying two scores. WRs Darius Jennings (421 rec yards, 1 TD) and Canaan Severin (385 rec yards, 3 TD) will need to play at a higher level with the injuries to Gooch and Levrone, who have combined to catch 35 balls for 575 yards (16.4 avg) and 2 TD.

The defense has allowed the opposition to score 24.2 PPG on the year (51st in FBS) but has surrendered 27.7 PPG over a current three-game skid. DBs Quin Blanding (89 tackles, 2 INT) and Anthony Harris (81 tackles, 2 INT) will have the tough task of defending against former Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston in this one.

Florida State does most of its damage through the air at 327.3 passing YPG (9th in nation) and doing little on the ground (131.8 YPG) with 38.4 PPG (15th in FBS).

QB Jameis Winston (2,279 pass yards, 16 TD, 9 INT) has not had quite as prolific of a season as last year (4,057 pass yards, 40 TD, 10 INT), but he has topped 300 yards in 4-of-7 games while throwing eight touchdowns in his past three contests. He did struggle against Louisville last week with three picks and completed a season-low 52.1% of his passes while actually having his most yards on the year (401) in the comeback victory.

HB Karlos Williams (450 rush yards, 7 TD) has gone over 100 yards just once this year as the school focuses more on passing, which he has also contributed to with 143 yards on 15 catches (9.5 avg) while having at least one catch in every game played. HB Dalvin Cook (380 rush yards, 5 TD) has also done well as the change-of-pace back while averaging 5.6 YPC as a freshman and eclipsing the century mark twice in the past three contests.

WR Rashad Greene (853 rec yards, 4 TD) has been Winston’s go-to guy over the past two years and has six or more receptions in 6-of-8 games in 2014 while WRs Nick O’Leary (364 rec yards, 2 TD) and Jesus Wilson (356 rec yards, 4 TD) have been nice safety blankets.

LBs Reggie Northrup (67 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) and Terrance Smith (60 tackles, 4 TFL) have helped lead the defense, which is allowing 22.8 PPG (42nd in nation) for the season.

OREGON DUCKS (8-1) at UTAH UTES (6-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Oregon -8, Total: 60

No. 5 Oregon looks to remain in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 as it hits the road Saturday night to take on No. 20 Utah.

The Ducks have bounced back nicely from a home loss to Arizona early in the season, winning their past four games by an average of 21.0 PPG. Oregon (5-4 ATS) is known for its offense, and has been able to build off high-scoring outputs in the past two seasons, going 9-1 ATS after scoring 24+ points in the first half in the previous game. The team has not won a game scoring less than 20 points since defeating California, 15-13, in 2010.

The Utes are looking to bounce back from a 19-16 overtime loss to Arizona State last week. Both 2014 losses for Utah (7-1 ATS) have been on a field goal to end the game, but the school is 18-8 ATS at home in the second half of the season under head coach Kyle Whittingham.

Last season, the Ducks won a 44-21 matchup in Eugene against the Utes. Oregon outgained Utah, 433-297 last season, but was dominated in a lot of other areas in the game, namely time of possession (Utah 35:57, Oregon 24:03).

The Ducks may be thin on both lines with OLs Matt Pierson (knee) and Andre Yruretagoyena both doubtful with knee injuries while DLs Arik Armstead (ankle) and Alex Balducci (leg) are both listed as questionable. The one injury of note for the Utes is S Tevin Carter, who is questionable with an undisclosed injury.

The Ducks offense is back to dominating, ranking 6th in the nation in scoring (45.4 PPG), 16th in passing (305.8 YPG) and 25th in rushing (228 YPG). The guy that gets all the hype, and rightfully so, is quarterback QB Marcus Mariota (2,541 pass yards, 410 rush yards, 33 total TD). While he does not look to run the ball as much as he did earlier in his career, Mariota still provides the big plays with his feet when he decides to run.

The offense has another emerging star in RB Royce Freeman (155 carries, 846 yards, 13 TD). Freeman is a big physical back (230 pounds) who has the ability to punish defenses. With so many of the Ducks offensive players being known for speed, defenses are caught off-guard by the physical presence in the backfield. RB Thomas Tyner (76 carries, 342 yards, 3 TD) and Byron Marshall (539 rec yards, 307 rush yards, 5 total TD) are two players that can produce big gains out of the backfield, giving Mariota a lot of help in his decision-making.

WR Devon Allen (29 catches, 517 yards, 6 TD) is a receiver who has world-class speed. He still needs to improve on his fundamentals, but when he catches the ball, he has a legitimate chance to take it the distance.

The Oregon defense allows a pedestrian 24.8 PPG (57th in nation), but played much better last week against Stanford, holding the Cardinal to only 16 points and 132 rushing yards. DB Erick Dargan (65 tackles, 5 INT, 2.5 TFL) is the playmaker on the unit who has the ability to cover a lot of ground in the secondary.

Utah is two field goals away from being undefeated. The Utes rank 40th in scoring (33.4 PPG), 42nd in rushing (198.1 YPG) and 111th in passing (175.3 YPG). QB Travis Wilson (1,084 pass yards, 9 TD, 0 INT) has been impressive after nearly retiring from football early in the offseason. He is not asked to go out and throw for a ton of yards, but he rarely makes mistakes and keeps his offense on the right path. Utah's top playmaker on the offensive side of the football is RB Devontae Booker (183 carries, 990 yards, 8 TD).

Defenses have focused on Booker all season long, but he has continued to dominate, rushing for at least 100 yards in five consecutive games. The air attack took a big hit though, when top WR Dres Anderson (22 catches, 355 yards, 4 TD) was declared out for the season last week. That will force WR Kenneth Scott (26 catches, 258 yards, 3 TD) to assume the No. 1 receiver role.

The offense is going to have to score some points, but if the Utes are going to get the victory, it will come down to their defense. Utah allows only 21.3 PPG (27th in nation) on the season, and held one of the best offenses in the country, Arizona State, to 19 points last week.

DEs Nate Orchard (12 sacks, 55 tackles, 14.5 TFL) and Hunter Dimick (9.5 sacks, 39 tackles, 11 TFL) comprise an elite pass-rushing duo that will have a huge role in this game. The pair will have to remain disciplined and not allow Mariota to get outside of the pocket. LB Gionni Paul (52 tackles, 4 INT, 2 sacks) is also a talented defensive player to look out for.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alabama at LSU
By Brian Edwards

Another chapter of Alabama-LSU, perhaps the best rivalry in all of college football over the last decade, will be written Saturday night when the Crimson Tide comes to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers.

LSU head coach Les Miles calls his home venue: “Tiger Stadium, the place where teams’ dreams go to die.” That assessment has been spot-on in LSU’s last 38 games, with Miles posting a 36-2 straight-up record. During his 10-year tenure, the Tigers are 62-8 at home.

One of those two recent defeats, however, came during Alabama’s last visit in 2012. Zach Mettenberger had played his best football as a Tiger, leading his team back from a 14-3 halftime deficit to take a 17-14 advantage. After LSU missed a field goal in the last two minutes, ‘Bama had one last chance to rally.

A.J. McCarron led the Crimson Tide on a precise drive and into LSU territory. On a third down with the Tigers bringing the blitz, McCarron hit T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass and the then-true-freshman running back did the rest. Yeldon dodged a pair of would-be tacklers before racing into the end zone for a TD that will be remembered in ‘Bama lore until the end of time. Final score: ‘Bama 21, LSU 17.

Thanks to another Alabama win last season, the Tide has now beaten LSU three consecutive times going into Saturday’s showdown at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Alabama (7-1 straight up, 2-6 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Gamblers can back the Tigers on the money line for a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210).

Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. On Oct. 25, Alabama went into Knoxville and jumped all over Tennessee early. On its first play from scrimmage, Blake Sims found Amari Cooper for an 80-yard scoring strike with Cooper doing most of the work with YAC (yards after catch). The Sims-Cooper combination would hook up again on a 41-yard TD pass for a 13-0 lead with 8:55 left in the first quarter.

Nick Saban’s team was up 27-0 less than three minutes into the second quarter after Sims ripped off a 28-yard run to paydirt. From there, though, the Tide took the pressure off the accelerator and ended up costing its backers monetarily.

UT sophomore QB Josh Dobbs led a pair of scoring drives to bring the Volunteers to within 27-10 at intermission. When Dobbs found Von Pearson for a nine-yard TD pass with 5:52 left in the third, Neyland Stadium erupted with its team down only 10 points (and ahead of the 20-point underdog number).

But ‘Bama would answer with a 28-yard TD run from Derrick Henry to put the game on ice. The Vols tacked on a field goal and the defense protected the backdoor cover in a 34-20 loss. The 54 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 45.5-point total.

Sims finished with 286 passing yards, 42 rushing yards and three TDs (two passing, one rushing). Cooper had nine receptions for 224 yards and a pair of scores, while Yeldon and Henry combined to rush for 130 yards with one rushing score apiece.

For the season, Sims is completing 65.3 percent of his throws for 2,020 yards with a 15/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also run for 223 yards and five TDs. Cooper has 71 receptions for 1,132 yards and nine TDs.

Alabama is second in the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 14.0 points per game. It is second in rush defense and fourth in total defense. As for the offense, it scores at a 36.5 PPG clip.

Since getting smashed 41-7 at Auburn on Nov. 4, LSU (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including wins at Florida (30-27), vs. Kentucky (41-3) and vs. Ole Miss (10-7). The Tigers’ defense was the story against the Rebels, coming up with a huge interception in the closing seconds when Ole Miss was in field-goal range to possibly to send the game into overtime.

LSU is inexperienced at the QB position, so it has relied on its ground game and defense. Although this isn’t as powerful or as talented of a team that we’re used to seeing on Miles’s watch, it’s a young and athletic bunch that’s gaining confidence by the week.

Miles has a stable of quality RBs led by true freshman Leonard Fournette, who has rushed for a team-high 657 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard have rushed for 418 and 416 yards, respectively, while combining for nine TD runs.

Anthony Jennings has started eight of the nine games and it’s been his show over the last month. The sophomore is connecting on just 50.0 percent of his attempts for 1,190 yards with an 8/5 TD-INT ratio. Jennings’ favorite target is fellow sophomore Travin Dural, who averages 25.0 yards per catch. Dural has 27 receptions for 676 yards and seven TDs.

Alabama OT Cam Robinson, the crown five-star jewel of the 2014 recruiting class, has been the team’s best offensive lineman all year and may be en route to earning first-team All-SEC honors. The true freshman suffered a high ankle sprain at Tennessee on Oct. 25 and was expected to miss several weeks. However, Robinson practiced on Tuesday and has been upgraded to ‘probable.’ RB T.J. Yeldon has also been on the injury report with a foot injury, but he’ll be ready to go as well.

Nick Saban’s team has struggled in road ‘chalk’ roles recently, limping to a 1-7 spread record in its last eight such spots. The Tide is 0-3 ATS this year, failing to cover as a favorite at Ole Miss, at Arkansas and at Tennessee.

LSU has been a home underdog during Les Miles’s tenure just five times, going 3-2 ATS with a pair of outright victories. One of the wins came over Ole Miss two weeks ago and the other was in the form of a 24-21 win over ‘Bama in 2010.

Totals have been an overall wash for ‘Bama (4-4), but the ‘under’ has cashed in three of its last four games. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three previous road assignments. The Tide’s outings have averaged combined scores of 50.5 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for LSU, 4-2 in its home games. The Tigers’ games have played to an average combined score of 48.7 PPG.

When these schools met at Bryant-Denny Stadium last season, LSU pulled even at 17-17 early in the third quarter on a 41-yard field goal. But it was all ‘Bama from there with it scoring 21 unanswered points to capture a 38-17 win as a 14-point home favorite. Yeldon was a killer for LSU again, racking up 133 rushing yards and two TDs.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in the last five ‘Bama-LSU meetings.

-- Two Florida starters, safety Keanu Neal (ankle) and offensive guard Trenton Brown (knee), are ‘out’ for Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt due to injuries. Vandy snapped a 22-game losing streak to Florida with last year’s 34-17 win at The Swamp. It was the Commodores first victory over UF since 1988. They haven’t beaten the Gators in back-to-back games since the 1950s. UF is favored by 14.5.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between Florida and Vandy. Despite their offensive ineptitude with the exception of last week’s 38-point explosion vs. UGA, the Gators have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 6-1 clip this season.

-- After starting the season with a 0-3 ATS record, Vandy has covered the spread in five of its last six games.

-- In the wake of a 45-42 overtime loss to Tennessee last week, several monster performances from South Carolina players went relatively unnoticed. And that’s what happens when you lose for the third time by allowing a fourth-quarter lead to get away (S. Carolina also lost after being tied at Auburn in the final stanza). On Saturday night at Williams-Brice Stadium, the Gamecocks let a pair of separate double-digit leads slip away in the final stanza. But Steve Spurrier has found a new star in his offense and his name is sophomore Pharoh Cooper. Cooper was in on four TDs (two receiving, one passing and one rushing). He had 11 receptions for 233 yards and amassed 286 all-purpose yards.

-- Tennessee QB Justin Worley will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum, ending his collegiate career. Worley finishes his UT career with 3,556 passing yards and a 23/21 TD-INT ratio.

-- Josh Dobbs has established himself as the present and the future QB for the Vols. He threw for 301 yards and a pair of TDs (just one interception) in the comeback win over the Gamecocks. Most notably, Dobbs showed off his athleticism with 24 rushes for 166 yards and three TDs. UT has an open date before finishing the year with this three-game stretch: vs. Missouri, vs. Kentucky and at Vandy. Yes, it appears as if the Vols are going to go bowling for the first time since 2010.

-- The first career start for true freshman QB Kyle Allen didn’t go as anticipated this past Saturday when Texas A&M held off ULM by a 21-16 count. The Warhawks easily took the money as double-digit underdogs. Allen completed only 13-of-28 throws for 106 yards with one TD and one interception. The Aggies could muster only 243 yards of total offense, while ULM had 347 total yards. Allen gets his second start Saturday at Auburn, as Kenny Hill serves the end of his two-game suspension.

-- Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina and Missouri have open dates this week, while both Mississippi schools play host to FCS opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

There is a surplus of marquee matchups on the NCAAF Week 11 schedule. That’s kept oddsmakers on their toes, as action pours in on Saturday’s slate.

We talk to Scott Kaminsky about the biggest adjustments on the Week 11 board and where those odds will end by kickoff.

SMU Mustangs at Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Open: -10.5, Move: -14

This “Toilet Bowl” is a matchup of teams with just one win between them. But that hasn’t stopped bettors from moving this number 3.5 points to the key two-touchdown spread. It doesn’t matter who the Mustangs face each week, the action is going against them.

“I’m making it a rule to bet against SMU each week,” jokes Kaminsky. “But I looked at Tulsa and just couldn’t do it. But when it comes to the Mustangs, you might as well just bet the opening number. They’ve bet against SMU every week. I actually opened this game SMU +12 because they beat them every week.”

Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open: +2.5, Move: -1

Wiseguys have pushed this spread over the fence, with Minnesota going from a home underdog to home favorite. The Gophers are undefeated inside TCF Bank Stadium this season with a 3-2 ATS record as hosts.

“The basic reason behind the move is the wiseguys have their own set of odds and must have Minnesota at like -3 or -4,” says Kaminsky. “The bet Minnesota thinking they should be the favorite in this game.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers – Open: -20.5, Move: -23.5

The Aggies are far from the team that stunned college football bettors in Week 1. Texas A&M has backup Kyle Allen under center with Kenny Hill still serving a suspension, and barely did enough to get past UL Monroe last weekend. Action has puffed up Auburn’s odds by a field goal as of Friday afternoon.

“Seems like Texas A&M is getting worse week after week,” says Kaminsky. “They came out that first week against South Carolina and you thought it was the second coming of Manziel. That’s just isn’t the case.”

UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies – Open: +4, Move: +6.5

This spread is creeping toward a touchdown with money on the Bruins. However, UCLA hits the road with some serious defensive issues. While it was able to limit Arizona to a touchdown last week, the Bruins allowed an average of 35.75 points in the four game prior.

“They’ve been good this season, with their only losses to Utah and Oregon. But their defense has given up a lot,” says Kaminsky. “That’s a lot of yards – over 400 yards per game (414.9 yards against per game, actually).”

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans – Open: 60, Move: -55.5

This total has dipped as much as 4.5 points at some markets. While the Buckeyes have steamrolled opponent with a potent scoring attack – averaging 45.6 points – bettors are expecting a hardnosed Big Ten battle that could have a huge impact on the conference’s position in the College Football Playoff.

“If I were betting it, I’d look at the Under,” says Kaminsky. “Both of these teams can put up points but both of the defenses are decent and this is a pretty big number.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 11

Week 11 of the college football season is packed with marquee matchups featuring Top 25 teams. If you don't have time to break down all the best games on the board, we do the heavy lifting with our NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet:

(17) Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (+10)

*With Todd Gurley suspended, Nick Chubb has really picked up the slack out of the back field. In the three games that Gurley has missed, the freshman has rushed for 501 yards and four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are coming off their first ATS loss without Gurley as they head into Kentucky, however.

*Kentucky's defense will have its hands full with the Georgia rushing attack. The Wildcats rank 94th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing an average of 188.6 yards per game on the ground.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at (13) Ole Miss Rebels (OTB)

*The Blue Hose are on pace for the best rushing season in its Division I era, posting an average of 182.8 yards per game. PC posted 175.6 rushing yards per game in 11 games in 2011, the current record.

*Ole Miss will start life without WR Laquon Treadwell against Presbyterian. Treadwell, the Rebels leader in receptions and touchdown catches, fractured his leg last week.

(10) Baylor Bears at (16) Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)

*Baylor has scored at least one touchdown in 29 of 32 quarters of action this season, but the Bears seem to do most of their damage early. Baylor has scored at least one TD in the first quarter of all seven games this year and is outscoring opponents 137-35 in the opening quarter.

*Oklahoma got a bit of a scare when Sterling Shepard strained his groin last week, but Bob Stoops told reporters early this week that “we’re optimistic that it will heal enough that he’ll be full speed (for Baylor)”. Shepard leads the Big 12 in receiving yards per game (119.6).

(24) Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers (+17)

*With 19 total touchdowns, Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon ranks No. 2 nationally in scoring at 14.3 points per game, trailing only Western Michigan running back Jarvion Franklin (14.7).

*The Boilermakers have been putting up an average of 27 ppg, but there's no single threat for defenses to key in on. Purdue has thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, but no receiver has caught more than one in a single game.

(20) Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange (+3)

*Duke boasts the highest-ranked offensive line in the country in regard to keeping its quarterback upright, surrendering just 0.50 sacks per game and a total of 4.0 this season.

*The running game will be key for the Orange, who are 3-1 when someone rushes for 100-plus yards and 0-5 when none of their ballcarriers reach that mark.

Texas A&M Aggies at (3) Auburn Tigers (-23.5)

*Texas A&M will turn to freshman Kyle Allen at quarterback for the second straight game after Kenny Hill's suspension by the team. "Operationally (Allen) was good there. That’s what you worry about with any young quarterback from an operational standpoint," Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin said this week. "Our communication could get better. We missed a couple signals on the perimeter, whether that’s the receivers or him."

*Auburn certainly prefers to get into shootouts. Since 2005, the Tigers are 16-1 SU in games when teams both score 30 or more points.

(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (12) Arizona State Sun Devils (-2.5)

*Notre Dame has been in command of its games this year. The Irish have trailed for just 11.1 percent of the season, 53:27 out of 480:00 of action. The Irish have held the lead for 304:05 or 63.4 percent of the season.

*ASU is facing its fifth AP-ranked opponent in the last five six played, which is the most the Sun Devils have played in such a short span ever. Against Top 25 teams during that span, the Sun Devils are 4-1 AU and 3-2 ATS.

(25) West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns (+3.5)

*"I thought I did a pretty terrible job of managing the game," WVU's Clink Trickett said after throwing two interceptions last week. "Couple turnovers - I've got to be able to hold on to the ball and be more conscious of that."

*Home field has not meant an advantage for the Longhorns, as they are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on their turf. "It's tough because this is supposed to be our home, and you're always expected to defend your home," Longhorns LB Jordan Hicks said this week.

Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks at (1) Mississippi State Bulldogs (OTB)

*Skyhawks Abou Toure has been lighting in up on the ground over the past two weeks. In Tennessee-Martin's past two games, the senior has rushed for 348 yards and five touchdowns.

*It is understandable why Dak Prescott is a leading Heisman candidate as he leads the nation in 200 yard passing/100 yard rushing games, achieving the feat four times this season.

Virginia Cavaliers at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-19.5)

*When you look at Virginia's passing attack, the first thing you notice is balance. The Cavaliers are one of only four teams in FBS that have five or more players with at least 20 receptions, which means the FSU secondary will need to be ready for threats from all angles.

*Jameis Winston has been outstanding while playing in Tallahassee during his career. The pivot has led the Seminoles to a 11-0 SU record and 9-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents 255-37.

(18) UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (+4.5)

*Despite winning their last two games (1-1 ATS), the Bruins have had serious penalty issues heading into the game versus Washington. UCLA has been penalized a combined 25 times for 239 yards in those previous two games. The Bruins rank 115 in the Nation seeing 8.2 flags per game.

*Good news for the Washington Huskies offensive line as LG Dexter Charles is expected to return to the lineup. Charles miss the last two weeks after suffering a foot injury.

(22) Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (OTB)

*Along with No.1 Mississippi State and No. 2 Florida State, Marshall is one of three programs to remain unbeaten straight up. The best at the betting window of those three? The Thundering Herd, who are 6-2 against the spread (MSU 5-3 ATS, FSU 2-6 ATS).

*Southern Miss coach Todd Monken was quick to defend quarterback Cole Weeks after a four-turnover performance one week ago. “It wasn't one guy,” Monken told the Hattiesburg American. “Because you might've had a protection issue and that's not necessarily the offensive line's fault. It might have been a running back. And a guy hits you when you're not looking and the ball comes out, I don't know how you can blame the quarterback for that.”

(9) Kansas State Wildcats at (7) TCU Horned Frogs (-6)

*Kansas State is 39 of 42 in the red zone this season, including 25 straight scores (19 touchdowns and six field goals) during the past five games.

*Though officially listed as questionable, TCU's RB B.J Catalon has not practiced all week. Catalon leads the Horned Frogs with 493 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

Colorado Buffaloes at (21) Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)

*Colorado needs to stop their sudden case of the fumbles if they want to compete with Arizona. The Buffaloes lost three fumbles last week after recording only one in their first eight games.

*"There are so many things we can do better," Wildcats coach Rich Rodriguez told reporters after the Wildcats were held to 255 yards, 80 on the ground, last week.

(4) Alabama Crimson Tide at (15) LSU Tigers (-3.5)

*Since 2009, no defense has allowed fewer touchdowns than the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s defense has surrendered just 104 touchdowns over the last 75 games. That is 39 fewer than the second most in the nation (LSU with 143).

*LSU is 46-3 in Saturday night games in Tiger Stadium under Les Miles. All three of those losses coming to teams that were either No. 1 at the time or reached No. 1 at some point during the year.

(11) Ohio State Buckeyes at (6) Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

*The Buckeyes have outscored their last six opponents by a combined 189-38 in the first half, shutting out the last two in the opening 30 minutes.

*Smack talk is flying between the Spartans and Buckeyes. Senior Spartans LB Taiwan Jones called Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett a "way better QB" with a "better arm" than starter Braxton Miller.

(5) Oregon Ducks at (22) Utah Utes (+8)

*Ducks LT Jake FIsher has been the key to a stellar offense. Oregon has not allowed a sack in four of the seven games the senior has played this season, but have given up 12 in the two games he has missed.

*The Utes, who lead the netion with 39 sacks, are currently on pace to produce the second-highest sack total in the past decade of college football play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arizona State standing tall vs. ranked opponents
Stephen Campbell

Despite facing some stiff competition, Arizona State has been coming through in a big way when it counts.

The No. 12 Sun Devils take on No. 8 Notre Dame Saturday - their fifth ranked opponent in their last six games.

Arizona State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against ranked competition. They're currently 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 60.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Running game key for Syracuse this season
Justin Hartling

Syracuse has been using a multi-pronged attack when it comes to running the ball this season with five separate backs with 100 yards or more on the ground. The Orange have been poor when their run game is shut down going 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread when no back hits the 100 yard mark.

Syracuse host Duke Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blue Hose gaining notoriety on the ground
Stephen Campbell

The Presbyterian Blue Hose have done a fantastic job running the football this season, something they'll need to do well against No. 13 Ole Miss Saturday.

The Blue Hose are on pace for the best rushing season in its Division I era, posting an average of 182.8 yards per game. PC posted 175.6 rushing yards per game in 11 games in 2011, the current record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Purdue sharing the load on offense
Stephen Campbell

The Purdue Boilermakers have been spreading the ball around on offense and then some this year.

Purdue has been putting up an average of 27 points per game, but there's no single threat for defenses to key in on. The Boilermakers have thrown 13 touchdown passes on the campaign, but no receiver has caught more than one in a single game yet.

The Boilermakers are presently 17-point home dogs for their matchup against No. 24 Wisconsin Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Holes in Kentucky's defense could spell trouble
Stephen Campbell

Kentucky could be in for a long day against a fierce Georgia rushing attack in Week 11 college football action Saturday.

The Wildcats rank 94th in the Nation in stopping the run, allowing an average of 188.6 yards per game on the ground. In the absence of star running back Todd Gurley, the Bulldogs have still managed to put up great numbers in the backfield, as Nick Chubb has 501 yards and four touchdowns in Gurley's absence.

Kentucky is presently 10-point home dogs with an O/U of 55.5.