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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams

2015 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 8-1 5-1 4-4 6-3
Iowa State 3-7 2-5 5-4-1 3-6-1
Kansas 0-10 0-7 3-7 5-5
Kansas State 3-6 0-6 4-5 5-4
Oklahoma 9-1 6-1 8-2 7-3
Oklahoma State 10-0 7-0 6-4 6-4
Texas 4-6 3-4 4-6 4-6
Texas Christian 9-1 6-1 4-6 5-5
Texas Tech 6-5 3-5 6-4-1 8-3
West Virginia 5-4 2-4 3-6 3-6


West Virginia at Kansas (NO TV, 12:00 p.m. ET)
West Virginia heads to Lawrence to take on winless Kansas, and they're favored by four touchdowns. After last week's 23-17 near-miss against Texas Christian, Kansas really received a lot of respect from around the conference for continuing the play hard despite their winless record. They easily covered a 46 1/2-point number, and they're 2-3 ATS over the past five. Kansas has managed to scored at least 17 points in three of their past five games, and they have an impressive running back in Ke'aun Kinner, who can be a difference maker when the Jayhawks aren't taken out of the game early and forced to abandon the run. West Virginia is 0-3 SU/ATS in three road games, but those games were also at Oklahoma, at Baylor and at TCU, all teams highly ranked and not winless like KU.

Iowa State at Kansas State (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa State is already ineligible for a bowl after losing a seventh game last weekend in heartbreaking fashion against Oklahoma State. They'd love to help K-State join them in the loser's lounge by hanging the Wildcats a seventh loss. The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against teams with a losing record, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games agianst a team with a losing home mark. K-State is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the underdog is also 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Baylor at Oklahoma State (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
In the first of two marquee games in the Big 12, the Bears look to get back into the playoff picture by ruining Oklahoma State's undefeated season. The Cowboys opened as a one-point favorite, but the line quickly changed to a pick 'em early in the week.

Baylor is 15-6 ATS in their past 21 against teams with a winning overall record, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. However, the Bears looked human in last week's loss against Oklahoma, and the coaching staff needs to kick the training wheels off and unleash freshman QB Jarrett Stidham.

OK State averted disaster with a fourth quarter comeback at Iowa State, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat and keeping their national championship aspirations alive. OK State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record, and 17-8 ATS in their past 25 games in Stillwater. Baylor needs to overcome some tough history if they're to cover in this one, as OK State is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 against Baylor, including 8-0 ATS in the past eight in Stillwater. The favorite has cashed in 12 of the past 16 in this series. If you're looking to the total, the over is the overwhelming trend for both sides recently, but the under is actually 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in this series.


Texas Christian at Oklahoma (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
TCU was obviously looking ahead to this matchup last weekend, as they were nearly upset at home by a winless Kansas team. The Horned Frogs survived 23-17, but left plenty wondering aloud about their chances in this game. After all, TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six road outings against a team with a winning home record.

Oklahoma might be playing better than anyone in the country over the past month, and they flexed a little muscle in their win at Baylor last weekend, handing the Bears their first loss of the season. Oklahoma has covered five in a row, each of their past four against teams with a winning record and four of their past five at home. However, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five at home against teams with a winning road record.

TCU has recent series trends on their side, as the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and TCU is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series. For those playing totals, the over is 4-0 in Oklahoma's past four at home, and 24-8-1 in their past 33 conference tilts. The over is 8-3 in the past 11 road games for TCU, and 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning record. Of course, the under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series.

Teams on a bye
Texas, Texas Tech

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 12
By ASA

Northwestern at Wisconsin – BTN, 3:30 p.m. EST

This line opened with Wisconsin an 11-point favorite and has dropped to 10 as of Wednesday. The Badgers are coming off a bye week and this is their home finale. The host has won 8 straight in this series by an average score of 36-18. Northwestern seems to have turned things around since a mid-October mini slump. They started the season with 5 straight wins and then were blown out on back to back weekends vs Michigan & Iowa. The Cats have since beaten Nebraska, Penn State, & Purdue. Last Saturday’s win over Purdue was a struggle as NW scored late in the 4th quarter (about 4:00 minutes remaining) to pick up the 21-14 win. The Cats are the worst statistical offense in the Big Ten averaging 21 PPG (14th in the conference) on just 4.7 YPP (14th in the conference). That presents a very interesting match up vs a Wisconsin team that ranks 1st nationally in scoring defense allowing just 12.3 PPG and allows opponents to average just 4.5 YPP.

The Badgers were hoping to get a few key players back after the bye but that now looks like it may not happen. RB Corey Clement (hernia) has played in one full game this season putting up big numbers (115 yards on 11 carries) vs Rutgers on Oct 31st. The hope was he would progress a bit more each week and carry more of the load. He went the other direction and hasn’t played since the Rutgers game and our word is he will most likely be out again this Saturday. One of our close contacts within the program told us not to be surprised if Clement didn’t play again this season. Wisconsin went into the bye with a road win over Maryland 31-24. They were outgained in that game for the first time since the Alabama game to open the season. Speaking of yardage, the Badgers have the 2nd best YPG differential in the Big Ten at +126 per game. Only Ohio State is better in that category. The 8-2 Badgers still have an outside shot at winning the Big Ten West but in order for that to happen they would need Iowa to lose at home vs Purdue and at Nebraska in the finale and Wisconsin would have to win out. Wisconsin 8-2 SU last 10 at home vs NW and 19 seniors will play their final game at Camp Randall on Saturday.

Michigan at Penn State – ABC, 12:00 p.m. EST

Is Michigan’s defense starting to wear down late in the season? It looks like that might be a possibility. After starting the Big Ten season with back to back shutouts and allowing a TOTAL of 38 points through their first 5 games, the Wolverines have allowed 110 points (27.5 PPG) over their last 4 games. After allowing none of their first 5 opponents to gain over 4.8 YPP, Michigan has allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to put up at least 5.4 YPP. While that’s still solid, there has been a decent sized drop off. Not to mention this defense was on the field for 89 plays in last week’s 48-41 win at Indiana on now on the road again, it will be worth keeping an eye on. Offensively, Michigan and QB Rudock has looked great the last two weeks putting up 49 & 48 points albeit against two of the worst defenses in the nation (Rutgers & Indiana). Last week, Rudock set career highs in passing yards (440), completions (33), and TD’s (6). However, that was against the Hoosiers 122nd ranked pass defense. We’ll see if he can come anywhere close to that against a PSU pass defense that ranks 2nd nationally allowing only 159 YPG through the air.

In our opinion, PSU has been overrated all season long as they are in an advantageous spot here for their home final off a bye week. Despite their 7-3 record they are only outgaining their opponents by an average of 39 YPG. Their offense continues to be sporadic at best and ranks 12th in the league averaging only 350 YPG. QB Hackenberg has played much better as of late but he sets up behind a leaky offensive line that has allowed 33 sacks this year which is 8 more than any other Big Ten team. Last year Michigan got their first win over PSU since 2007 topping the Nits 18-13 in Ann Arbor. It was a game lacking in offense as the two teams totaled just 460 yards.

Michigan State at Ohio State – ABC, 3:30 p.m. EST

The big question in this game is the health of MSU QB Connor Cook. He’s had a shoulder problem for a few weeks and last week he did not return after halftime vs Maryland because of that shoulder problem. The offense as a whole was poor and even more so when Cook was out in the 2nd half. For the game MSU averaged only 3.6 YPP on a defense that has allowed 5.3 YPP on the season. Cook will need to be close to 100% if Sparty wants to have a shot at the upset. He says he’s 95% and ready to go but others in the know think he’s hurting more than he’s leading on. Cook is 32-4 as a starter and MSU has actually won 19 of their last 23 road games yet they are getting nearly 2 TD’s here.

It’s a huge game for both teams. Both teams are in the same position. Win out and head to the Big Ten Championship game. Ohio State got QB Barrett back last week after a one game suspension and the Bucks dominated Illinois on the road 28-3. The Bucks outgained the Illini 440-261 and 5.9 YPP to just 3.6 YPP. OSU leads the Big Ten in YPG differential at +155 YPG in in YPP differential at +2.2. Despite MSU’s 9-1 record they have not been all that impressive in the stat column outgaining teams by only +42 YPG and +0.2 YPP. These two met last year and put up a ton of offense (over 1,100 total yards) and OSU prevailed 49-37 at Michigan State. The underdog has covered 4 straight in the series and the road team has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Indiana at Maryland – BTN, 12:00 p.m. EST

It’s do or die time for Indiana. Win this game and then beat Purdue in the season finale and get to a bowl game. Lose either game and they will stay home again over the holidays. The Hoosiers have been “this close” the last two weeks at home vs two of the Big Ten’s best. Two weeks ago they lost 28-20 to undefeated Iowa and last week they fell short 48-41 in OT vs Michigan. As we’ve stated in this column in past editions, if the Hoosiers could stop or even slow down anyone they’d be tough to beat. They lead the Big Ten in total offense at 467 YPG but they are dead last in total defense allowing 511 YPG. The defense, as usual, was the problem again last week as Michigan ripped off nearly 600 total yards on 7.9 YPP. Offensively, IU and mainly RB Howard were great. Howard ran for 238 yards on a Michigan defense that is allowing only 81 YPG on the ground.

Maryland has actually played their best football after head coach Randy Edsall was fired a few weeks ago. They did lose 24-7 at Michigan State last week but the game was closer than that. The Terps actually outgained the Spartans by 27 yards in the game but turned the ball over a whopping 5 times. Because of the turnovers, MSU was left with a short field on many occasions scoring a TD on a 50 yard drive and a 4 yard drive and a FG on an 18 yard drive. Speaking of turnovers, the Terps are AVERAGING 3 interceptions per game which is by far the worst in the nation. It’s almost impossible to win when you do that. Can the Terps continue to stay focused and play for interim head coach Mike Locksley now that the rumors have surfaced the Maryland brass are interested in Texan coach Bill O’Brien and he seems to be interested in them? We’ll see. Maryland comes into this game as a slight home favorite of 2.5 and IU is just 6-28 their last 34 road games.

Purdue at Iowa – ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. EST

The Hawks don’t need style points and they don’t need to be fancy. Win out, including winning the Big Ten Championship Game, and they are in College Football’s Final 4. Iowa plays their final home game on Saturday vs last place Purdue. Do you think Iowa will try and run the ball in this one? We’re pretty sure they will facing a Boilermaker defense that has allowed 632 yards on the ground just in the last two weeks (vs Illinois & Northwestern). Iowa “escaped” again last week holding off Minnesota for a 40-35 win. That win moved Iowa to 10-0 on the season but half of their wins (5) have come by 9 points or less. They are 6-0 in the Big Ten and 4 of those 6 wins have come by 9 points or less. They sit just 4th in the Big Ten in YPG differential behind Ohio State, Wisconsin, & Michigan. Iowa is laying 21 points in this game but they’ll be happy to just move on with a win.

Purdue has been all over the map. After getting destroyed at home vs Illinois two weeks ago, they bounced back and nearly upset Northwestern on the road last Saturday. The Cats scored a TD with just under 5:00 remaining to grab the 21-14 win. The Boilers key offensive weapon has become freshman RB Jones. He injured his knee in last week’s game and didn’t return. He’s expected to play this week. When Jones went out at the end of the 3rd quarter last week, from that point on Purdue was able to muster just 22 total yards in 12 plays. He is key if Purdue hopes to hang with Iowa this weekend. The Boilermakers are playing their 2nd of back to back road games but that isn’t necessarily a terrible thing. Purdue has actually played better in their 4 road games where they have been leading, tied or within one score deep into the third quarter. In half of their home games (3) the game has been well out of hand in the third quarter.

Illinois at Minnesota – ESPNNews, 12:00 p.m. EST

The Gophs have played three of the Big Ten’s best over their last 3 games and they’ve been right there with a chance to win in all of them. They played host to Michigan a few weeks back and despite completely dominating the game (461 yards to 296) they lost 29-26. Minnesota was held at the goal line as time ran out in that one. A week later they last at Ohio State 28-14 but it was closer than that as the Bucks returned an interception for a TD late in that game to put the margin at 14. Last week they went back and forth with undefeated Iowa before falling 40-35 on the road. Minny’s offense is humming right now and QB Leidner is averaging 290 YPG passing in his last 4 games. The defense, on the other hand, is banged up. They lost players in the defensive backfield earlier this year and some are still out. Now the injury bug has hit the defensive line where starting DT’s Richardson & Epke were out last week at Iowa. We’ll keep an eye on this. Minnesota has to win this week and next week vs Wisconsin to qualify for a bowl game.

Illinois continues to struggle offensively. They put up just 3 points last week vs OSU and have been held to 20 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 Big Ten games. They rank dead last in scoring offense (16 PPG) in Big Ten play (conference games only). QB Lunt has been inconsistent all year and while he has thrown for 224 YPG, he is not ranked in the top 10 in the league in QB rating. The return of RB Ferguson has been big as he is their main offensive threat. He came back from injury 2 weeks ago and rushed for 133 yards at Purdue. Last week he was held in check and tweaked his hamstring but should be good to go here. The other Illini RB Vaughn (their leading rusher) most likely will not play this weekend (concussion). As of Wednesday, Vaughn is not even scheduled to make the trip north. These two met in Champaign last year and the Illini captured a 28-24 win despite being outgained 411 to 263. Illinois scored the winning TD on a fumble return with just 6:00 left in the game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams

2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 6-5 3-5 6-5 8-3
Arizona State 5-5 3-4 3-7 3-7
California 6-4 3-4 5-5 3-7
Colorado 4-7 1-6 4-6-1 4-7
Oregon 7-3 5-2 6-4 6-4
Oregon State 2-8 0-7 2-8 4-6
Southern California 7-3 5-2 5-5 4-6
Stanford 8-2 7-1 7-3 5-5
UCLA 7-3 4-3 4-5-1 3-7
Utah 8-2 5-2 5-5 6-4
Washington 4-6 2-5 5-5 2-8
Washington State 7-3 5-2 8-2 4-6

Arizona at Arizona State (NO TV, 3:30 p.m. ET)
In the 'Disappointment Bowl', it is Arizona and Arizona State. Each team entered with high expecations in 2015, with some even tabbing the Sun Devils as a potential playoff team. That ship sailed back in September, and both of these clubs are simply fighting for bowl eligibility, or to improve their bowl profile. Arizona State is favored by 7 1/2 in this game at most shops, and the underdog is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings in this series. That's something to remember. The under has also hit in five of the past six meetings in Tempe, although the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall and the over is 9-3 in Arizona's past 12 overall.

Southern California at Oregon (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Ducks were written off earlier in the year after a horrible home loss against Utah and an overtime setback against Washington State sent them to 3-3. However, the Ducks have rolled to four straight wins, and they're 4-0 ATS during the span to vault back into the Top 25. USC has had a similar season, stumbling to 3-3 back on Oct. 17 at Notre Dame. That loss came after the firing of head coach Steve Sarkisian. However, they too have rattled off four wins in a row, covering two of them. The 'under' has also hit in three in a row for USC. The Trojans are a dismal 7-16 ATS in their past 23 road games, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 Pac-12 contests. However, the Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their past six at Autzen Stadium. In this series, the 'over' has cashed in four straight, and the favorite has hit in seven of the past nine.


UCLA at Utah (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)
This is a very important game in the Pac-12 South. The Utes were once in the Top 5 of the standings, but have since tumbled back in the pack. They already have a loss at USC, so while tied at 5-2 they are technically behind for the conference division lead. A win against UCLA, and a Bruins win over the Trojans would have the Utes positioned for their first conference championship game. It will be a tall order, though, as the Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Utes are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven at Rice-Eccles, but 11-4 ATS in their past 15 overall against teams with a winning overall mark. Utah is also 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the 'under' cashing in each of the past four meetings.

Washington at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)
The Huskies hit the road for Corvallis as more than two-touchdown favorites. The Beavers have been brutal this season, and they're 1-5 ATS over their past six home games and just 5-16 ATS in their past 21 conference tilts. Washington hasn't been much better, going 1-4 ATS in their past five overall (all conference tilts). However, Washington is 12-5 ATS in their past 17 against teams with a losing record, and 5-1 ATS in their past six road outings against a team with a losing home mark. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, though, and Washington is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 against Oregon State. The 'under' looks attractive based on recent trends, as the 'under' is 7-0 in Washington's past seven road games and 20-6 in their past 26 overall. The 'under' is also 9-1 in Washington's past 10 conference tilts. The 'under' is 5-2 in Oregon State's past seven at Reser Stadium, and 9-4 in their past 13 overall. However, the 'over' is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings in this series in Corvallis. The latter might be a bit meaningless considering the falloff in offense for both sides in recent seasons.

California at Stanford (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
It's time for the 118th installment of the 'Big Game'. While the playoff hopes of Stanford likely went up in flames in last week's 38-36 loss against Oregon, the Cardinal are still on track for a nice bowl game if they can pick up their sixth straight victory over their rivals from Cal. The Golden Bears are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games, but 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. Stanford has been good against the number, going 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall and 6-2 ATS in their past eight against clubs with a winning overall mark. In this series Cal is 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, with the road team hitting in five of the past six against the number. The 'over' has connected in five of the past seven in this series.

Colorado at Washington State (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)
In a rather disappointing season for the Pac-12 as a whole, Washington State has been one of the better stories. It didn't start out that way, as they lost their season opener to FCS Portland State. But they have fought and climbed all the way into the Top 25 this week, and are favored by more than two touchdowns at home. The Buffaloes are just 8-17 ATS in their past 25 road games against a team with a winning home record, but the underdog and road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. While the Cougars have covered seven in a row, and four of the past five against losing teams, they're 0-2 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Miss. State at Arkansas
By Brian Edwards

**Mississippi State at Arkansas**

-- As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Arkansas (6-4 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 57.5 points. The Hogs were favored by four for most of the week before many spots adjusted to 4.5 on Thursday. The number moved to five around lunch (Eastern) on Friday. The Bulldogs were +170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

-- This is a revenge game for the Razorbacks, who went to Starkville last year when Mississippi State was unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the country. Arkansas took a 3-0 lead early in the first quarter and never trailed until the Bulldogs went ahead 17-10 early in the fourth quarter on a 69-yard TD pass from Dak Prescott to Fred Ross. MSU would win 17-10, but the Hogs took the cash as 10-point underdogs. It was the third straight win for the Bulldogs in this rivalry.

-- Arkansas has won four in a row after thumping LSU by a 31-14 count last week at Tiger Stadium. The Razorbacks, who won outright as 6.5-point underdogs, are now 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last six outings. Bret Bielema’s team raced out to a 21-0 lead to the dismay of all those decked out in purple and gold in Red Stick. Brandon Allen’s 52-yard TD pass to Dominique Reed allowed the Hogs to draw first blood. Next, Alex Collins ripped off an 80-yard TD run and followed that with another end-zone scamper from five yards out late in the second quarter. When LSU trimmed the deficit to 24-14, Arkansas put the game on ice with a Jared Cornelius 69-yard TD run on an end-around play.

-- Collins rushed 16 times for 141 yards and two TDs at LSU. It was his eighth 100-yard rushing effort of the season and his fourth in a row. Collins, a true junior from Miami, is third in the SEC in rushing yards with 1,209. He has 14 rushing TDs and a 6.1 yards-per-carry average.

-- Allen has enjoyed a stellar senior season to zip the lips of his critics. Allen has completed 64.4 percent of his throws for 2,617 yards with a 22/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He lost his best WR Keon Hatcher to a season-ending injury in Week 2, but his favorite target rapidly became Drew Morgan. The junior wideout has had a breakout campaign. Morgan has a team-high 45 receptions for 639 yards and nine TDs. TE Hunter Henry has 37 catches for 490 yards and one TD, while Reed has 21 grabs for 425 yards and six TDs.

-- Mississippi State (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) saw its four-game winning streak snapped last week when Alabama came to Scott Field and dealt out a 31-6 shellacking as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ The 37 combined points fell ‘under’ the 51.5-point total. On the opening drive for Dan Mullen’s squad, it advanced to Alabama’s one yard line only to get stuffed on fourth and goal. MSU would fail on fourth-down attempts twice more. Although the Bulldogs generated more total offense that ‘Bama (393-379), they never got into the end zone and had to settle for a pair of field goals from Westin Graves. Prescott threw for 300 yards, but he was intercepted once and only completed 22-of-43 passes. The senior signal caller, who leads MSU in rushing, was only able to gain 14 yards on the ground on 26 carries. Derrick Henry paced the Crimson Tide with 204 rushing yards, including TD runs of 74 and 64 yards.

-- Prescott is enjoying another terrific season. The Louisiana native has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,651 yards with an incredible 18/2 TD-INT ratio. Prescott has run for 432 yards and seven scores.

-- Ross has a team-best 59 receptions for 662 yards and two TDs, while De’Runnya Wilson has 39 catches for 651 yards and eight TDs. Wilson sustained a neck injury in the loss to Alabama, but he’s listed as ‘probable’ for Arkansas.

-- Mississippi State has won three of its four road games this year, compiling a 2-2 spread record. As a road underdog during Mullen’s seven-year tenure, the Bulldogs have posted an 8-11 spread record.

-- Arkansas owns a 6-5 spread record in 11 games as a home favorite on Bielema’s watch.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for the Bulldogs, 3-1 in their four previous road assignments. They have seen their games average a combined score of 50.4 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Arkansas, 3-3 in its home games. However, the ‘over’ has cashed at a 3-1 clip in its last four outings. The Hogs’ games have averaged combined scores of 62.3 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**SEC Nuggets**

-- Tennessee is a seven-point favorite at Missouri. The Tigers, who are 3-0 both SU and ATS vs. UT since coming into the SEC, found out coach Gary Pinkel was retiring at the end of the season just 24 hours before facing BYU at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. They responded in a big way, capturing a 20-16 win as 4.5-point underdogs. Senior RB Russell Hansbrough came into the year with 1,908 career rushing year, but he sprained his ankle in the first quarter of the season opener. He only missed one entire game, but Hansbrough had yet to produce a rushing effort of more than 74 yards. That changed in KC as Hansbrough was given 26 carries for a season-best 117 rushing yards. His previous high for carries this year was 16.

-- Since 2005, Missouri has been a home underdog 14 times. The Tigers are 5-9 ATS in those contests. As a road favorite on Butch Jones’s watch, UT has posted a 2-2 spread record.

-- Missouri will be without Terry Beckner, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Cougars. The true freshman DT had 27 tackles, eight tackles for loss, three sacks and two QB hurries.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed at a lucrative 9-1 clip in Missouri games this year.

-- If you missed it last weekend, I liked how UGA head coach Mark Richt was thinking. Assuming an exit strategy for him hasn’t already been formulated by his bosses at the school, it would have started last Saturday night had the Bulldogs lost at Auburn. Instead, UGA won and then Richt decided to take an impromptu trip out to Washington. You see, Georgia has a verbal commitment from Jacob Eason, a product of Lake Stevens, WA., who is the nation’s No. 1 ranked pro-style QB in the 2016 class. Richt had breakfast with Eason and his Dad and sent out a tweet with a picture of the two. Translation: This kid likes me. If you want him to come to UGA, you’d better not fire me. Hey, I like it. If Georgia wins out (IF!), it would finish 10-3 and possibly have its QB issues solved for the next four years (assuming Eason is as advertised). We hear all this talk about what a great man/human Richt is (and I agree), but the dude can reach deep for strategies in desperate times. Case in point: 2007. Richt and UGA had been getting spanked by the Gators for 17 years (2-15 record during that stretch to be exact), so Richt instructs his team in preparation for the game to raid the end zone upon scoring its first TD of the game. Say what?! I’d never heard of it before, either. And yes, the entire team left the sidelines and invaded the end zone to celebrate. Translation: We’ll take these penalties for this celebration, and we don’t care. We came to play today! Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno led the Bulldogs to a 42-30 win that day. I have always credited Richt’s moxy for that victory. Now of course, he paid for it the next season. Florida smashed UGA by a 49-10 count. In the final minute, Urban Meyer used all three of his timeouts to force UGA to stay on the field and absorb that pimpslap for an extra five minutes.

-- Georgia has two tough games left, including Saturday’s home game vs. Ga. Southern (then at Ga. Tech). The Dawgs are 13.5-point favorites. The Eagles own a 6-1 spread record in seven games as a double-digit underdog since 2010. The only non-cover was this year’s 44-0 loss at West Va. when starting QB Kevin Ellison was out due to a suspension.

-- Florida is a 31-point home ‘chalk’ vs. FAU. DE Alex McCallister is ‘out’ with a foot injury and there’s concern in Gainesville that McAllister might not be ready for next Saturday’s showdown vs. FSU.

-- Big hat tip to my guy Chris Vernon of Verno Show fame in Memphis. I’m a guest on his show every Friday and as I was endorsing my play on Arkansas this week, he let me in on these tidbits. Check out what these teams have done the week after they played Alabama this year. (We’re omitting Arkansas because it had an open date the week after falling in Tuscaloosa). Ole Miss looked horrible and never threated to cover in a 27-16 home win over Vandy as a 27-point ‘chalk.’ ULM lost 51-31 as a six-point home underdog vs. Ga. Southern. Georgia lost 38-31 at Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite, while Texas A&M got spanked 23-3 at Ole Miss the week after losing to the Crimson Tide. LSU? As we saw last weekend, it was favored at home and got drilled by the Razorbacks, 31-14. Tennessee was an exception to this, but it was playing Kentucky (in football). The point is that teams are not only beaten up physically from Alabama’s style of play, but they’re also drained mentally and emotionally after giving their all against Nick Saban’s powerhouse program. Mississippi State falls into this mode in Fayetteville this weekend.

-- Vanderbilt is a 6.5-point home underdog vs. Texas A&M. The Commodores still have hopes of getting bowl eligible with a win over the Aggies and at Tennessee next Saturday. Derek Mason’s team is 3-1-1 ATS at home this year with three outright victories. The ‘Dores are 4-2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs since Mason took over.

-- Texas A&M has failed to cover the number in five straight games, winning outright just twice in that span (vs. South Carolina and vs. Western Carolina). With an underdog spot looming at LSU next week, a win in Nashville is imperative for Kevin Sumlin’s program. If the season ended with five losses in seven games, including one at Vandy, Sumlin would be under all sorts of pressure heading into 2016.

-- Ole Miss was favored by four for Saturday’s home game vs. LSU early in the week. However, the number was up to 6.5 by Thursday afternoon. The total was 56. The Tigers were +205 on the money line (risk $100 to win $205). A report in the Baton Rouge Advocate earlier this week stated that there were ‘strong indications’ that Les Miles is coaching for his job the next two weeks. I find that difficult to comprehend, especially with a $15 million buyout, but five straight losses to Alabama have the fans in Louisiana restless. We shall see…

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 12
By James Manos

Here's what we got for Week 12.

1) Correct sharp movement: Michigan State/Ohio State OVER

Sharps and the public alike lining up to move this game upward and I doubt it stops until the number reaches at least 56, so if you like this game OVER the total……jump in now. This number was held down a bit due to injury concerns for Spartans quarterback Connor Cook but it looks like he'll go and be reasonably healthy. Respect still be given to both of these defenses despite the fact that they are rarely producing the numbers to back them up.

Ohio State will be much better with QB J.T. Barrett back and entrenched as the starter and they've yet to truly explode in a game, perhaps this is the one. The Spartans have sorely missed departed defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi as they've surrendered 28, 24, 26 and 39 to the four decent offenses on their schedule. Ohio State's numbers are skewed by a weak schedule as this will be their first game vs a ranked opponent all season long. This has the makings of a game where these offenses exploit some lightly tested defenses.

2) Incorrect sharp movement: Memphis/Temple UNDER

A little surprised at the movement downward in this one considering the respect showered on the Memphis offense and QB Paxton Lynch. The Tigers average 541 yards of offense per game and have faced a decent slate of opposing defenses, including Ole Miss, Tulane, and Houston. The Tigers can move the football and have a defense that is accustomed to playing in shootouts as they've allowed 29 points per game.

Temple does own a strong defense but it looks as if the pressure of a tough schedule and the unfamiliarity of being the hunted has started to take it's toll on them. The Owls have allowed 42 PPG the last two weeks and are now allowing 27 ppg to average offenses. Memphis plays fast and has strong skill position players and just two of their games all season long have stayed UNDER this current number (58).

think the Owls defense is slipping and that Temple we be forced into a "shootout" type game with this one flying over the 60 point mark.

3) Public movement: USC/Oregon OVER

Well, things are back to normal in the Pac-12 totals market as the public just pounces on Oregon OVER the total to start every week. With the return to health of QB Vernon Adams the Ducks offense is clicking and they seem to be a completely different team with him at the helm. USC has a plethora of talented skill position players and neither of these teams have shown any indication that they are able to stop a competent offensive unit. Oregon now averaging their customary 42 PPG but allowing a surprising 37 PPG, which should ensure that a Trojan offense averaging 465 YPG of offense, should find some success.

Both of these teams are on offensive kick-ups and these offenses will be MUCH better than the defenses they are facing. The last three times these teams faced each other we saw combined totals of 85, 73, and 113. I'll agree with the public on this movement up to 76 and it would take 77 or better for me to even consider coming in on the other side. This opener was a mistake and the public found some low hanging fruit.

4) Market manipulation: Mississippi State/Arkansas OVER

I have no idea who is moving these Mississippi State totals but they are moving them aggressively and somehow the market continues to follow along. This is the 3rd consecutive week that we've seen heavy movement on a Mississippi State total OVER despite their being little statistical or modeling parameters to support it. I called it a "head fake" last week and produced a winner so we will return to the well once more. Arkansas is on an uptick and the Hogs have finally begun to achieve their potential with improved QB play.

The Bulldogs continue to be solely reliant on QB Dak Prescott for the entirety of their offense and it limits them. There are some indicators that the Hogs could have a good day running the ball but I don't think it'll be enough to achieve this total. Number is on the rise (58) and will likely reach 60 before seeing any buyback. Arkansas roles in this one and the Bulldogs struggle offensively, holding this one UNDER this inflated total.

Aloha!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (9-1) at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (10-0)
Ohio Stadium - Columbus, OH
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line Ohio State -13.5, Total: 52.5

Reigning national champion No. 3 Ohio State hopes to stay undefeated Saturday in a showdown against visiting Big Ten rival No. 9 Michigan State.

The Spartans (9-1 SU and 3-7 ATS) bounced back from their sole loss of the season (Nov. 7 at Nebraska) to dispatch Maryland 24-7 last weekend, but lost star QB Connor Cook to injury in the second half. The Buckeyes (10-0 SU, 4-6 ATS), meanwhile, saw the return of their star QB J.T. Barrett from a suspension last weekend as they easily knocked off Illinois 28-3 to improve to a perfect 30-0 against Big Ten opponents in the regular season under head coach Urban Meyer.

The team has gotten the better of the Spartans in recent history with advantages of 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS since 1992, and in their meeting last year, 14th-ranked Ohio State upset 8th-ranked Michigan State in a 49-37 shootout.

Neither team has been a profitable bet against the spread this season, but both have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread this week. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the past three seasons, and 10-1 ATS after having won five or six out of their previous seven games over the same time period.

The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are 18-5 ATS at home after outrushing an opponent by 200+ yards in the prior game since 1992, and 6-0 ATS in the past two seasons versus good teams (10+ PPG margin).

Michigan State will be closely watching QB Connor Cook, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury in last week’s victory over Maryland and is listed as probable for Saturday. Additionally, DL Joel Heath (leg) is questionable for the Spartans. Ohio State has two defensive additions to its injury report this week, as DB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and LB Chris Worley (undisclosed) are both questionable to play.

Under the leadership of Senior QB Connor Cook, Michigan State’s offense has put 32.9 PPG (42nd in nation) and averaged a respectable 406 total YPG (61st in FBS). Cook averages 31 passing attempts per game for 17.4 completions and 247.2 passing YPG, while throwing for 21 TD and just 4 INT. In the event Cook’s shoulder injury forces him to the sidelines again on Saturday, he’ll be spelled by backup QB Tyler O’Connor, who has thrown just 11 times for six completions, 44 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

The team would also want Cook to play in the game considering how well he played versus OSU last year when he threw for 358 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. WR Aaron Burbridge has been Cook’s No. 1 option through the air this season, catching 64 passes for 1,011 yards and six touchdowns. RB Gerald Holmes has emerged as the late-season preferred option on the ground, running an average of 20 times for 100 YPG and a touchdown in each of his past two games.

The Spartans’ defense has been relatively solid on the season, allowing opponents 22.3 PPG (37th in nation) and 364 total YPG (46th in FBS). The team is especially effective against the run on the road, giving up just 100 rushing YPG on a meager 3.2 YPC.

Ohio State has managed to stay undefeated despite a quarterback competition that has only recently been settled, all while scoring an average of 36.4 PPG (28th in nation) and generating 453 YPG (33rd in FBS).

Sophomore QB J.T. Barrett has established himself as the starter over junior QB Cardale Jones, leading the team to victory over Illinois after serving a one-game suspension for operating a motor vehicle under the influence. Barrett has proven to be the more athletic option, complementing his eight passing touchdowns with an equal number of running scores. Last season in East Lansing, he lit up the Spartans for 386 total yards and five touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing).

Amid the instability of the QB position, junior RB Ezekiel Elliott has been the heart of the team’s offense and the third-best rusher in the nation. Elliott averages 22 rushes per game for 142.5 YPG and has contributed 16 TD. Last season against the Spartans, he ran for 154 yards on 23 carries (6.7 YPC) and a pair of touchdowns.

The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite this season, holding opponents to a meager 13.8 PPG (2nd in nation) and 298 YPG (9th in FBS). The team’s performance has peaked over the past several weeks, allowing just 8.0 PPG in their past three games.

LSU TIGERS (7-2) at OLE MISS REBELS (7-3)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -6.5, Total: 56

No. 15 LSU and No. 22 Ole Miss will renew their SEC West rivalry on Saturday afternoon in Oxford, MS.

The Tigers (4-5 ATS) have lost two straight games to fall out of conference title contention and are 0-3 ATS on the road this season. The Rebels (5-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week following their heart-breaking 53-52 overtime home loss to Arkansas, but can still win their division with two victories and an Alabama loss to Auburn next week. These teams have played three straight close games where the home team has prevailed each time by six points or less.

Ole Miss won the last meeting in Oxford two years ago by a 27-24 score as a 9.5-point home underdog, and LSU was a 4.5-point home 'dog to the No. 3 Rebels last year when it pulled out a 10-7 win. The betting trends are pretty even for both sides in this matchup, as the Tigers are 9-0 ATS on the road after being outrushed by 125+ yards in its previous game since 1992, but also 0-7 ATS on the road following a home game since 2013.

Ole Miss is 18-9 ATS at home under head coach Hugh Freeze, but favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning record coming off an extremely close conference loss (3 points or less) are just 20-50 ATS when facing another winning team since 1992.

Although the Rebels are more well-rested coming off a bye week, they have a longer injury list with LB Denzel Nkemdiche (undisclosed) doubtful and four others defensive players questionable in DE Fadol Brown (foot), DT Herbert Moore (knee), LB Tayler Polk (undisclosed) and CB Kalio Moore (undisclosed). For the Tigers, only TE DeSean Smith (undisclosed) is doubtful while OL Jerald Hawkins (ankle) has been upgraded to probable.

LSU has posted strong offensive numbers of 33.6 PPG on 420 total YPG (6.7 yards per play) this season. The offense is much more reliant on the ground game with 42 rushing attempts per contest (254 YPG, 6.0 YPC) and only 20 passing attempts per game (166 YPG, 8.1 YPA).

Superstar RB Leonard Fournette (FBS-high 1,643 rush yds, 17 TD) was near the top of everybody's Heisman list after rushing for at least 150 yards in each of the first seven games, but he has been limited to a meager 61 rushing YPG on 3.2 YPC over the past two defeats. Fournette did run well against Ole Miss last year though with 113 yards on 23 carries (4.9 YPC).

If he can't gain yards against a talented Rebels front seven, sophomore QB Brandon Harris may have to throw 35 times like he did last week when he completed 21 passes for 271 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

The Tigers have a very talented defense that allows only 24.3 PPG and 343 total YPG (5.2 yards per play). But because the run-stop unit has surrendered 549 rushing yards and 6 TD over the past two games, the season numbers have jumped to 134 YPG allowed on 4.1 YPC. The passing defense has been decent with 209 YPG allowed on 6.3 YPA, but the entire unit must be ready for a challenge after the Rebels racked up 52 points and 590 total yards in its last game.

Ole Miss scores a hefty 40.7 PPG on 527 total YPG this season, and those numbers are even beefier at home (50.5 PPG, 578 total YPG). This offense doesn't like to huddle up, and the fast pace has led to a subpar 26:15 average time of possession. The Rebels are known more for their passing game, but have an evenly balanced offensive attack with 178 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 349 passing YPG (8.9 YPA).

Over the past three weeks, they have averaged more than 203 rushing YPG. The passing game continues to thrive with QB Chad Kelly (3,224 pass yds, 8.9 YPA, 23 TD, 12 INT) frequently targeting top WR Laquon Treadwell (68 rec, 1,002 yds, 7 TD). The junior pass catcher has gone over 100 receiving yards in five straight weeks, scoring at least one touchdown in every one of those games.

Ole Miss has a wealth of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and that has translated to opponents scoring only 23.0 PPG on 374 total YPG, including a mere 16.5 PPG in Oxford. Opposing rushers are gaining 126 YPG on a paltry 3.2 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are having more success with a 60% completion rate, 248 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA. Turnovers have not come very easily in the past seven games with just seven total takeaways in this span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News for Week 12
by Alan Matthews

Some interesting scuttlebutt this week that LSU might force out Coach Les Miles if the Tigers lose either this week against Ole Miss or next against Texas A&M. If the Tigers lose out, that would make LSU a mediocre 13-11 in SEC games the past three years. Just a few weeks ago, LSU was No. 2 in the CFP rankings and unbeaten but has since been humbled by Alabama and Arkansas and seen Leonard Fournette's Heisman chances vanish.

The Tigers really haven't been in the same class as Alabama since losing that national title game to the Tide in the 2011 season (after beating Bama in the regular season). Miles' teams have had as much talent as any, but LSU struggles developing quarterbacks. Those Tigers offenses are really a thing of the past -- run, run, run. LSU is passing only 32.4 percent of the time, lowest percentage in the SEC.

Still, Miles is 110-31 with two SEC titles and one national title in his 11 years at LSU. One major problem with getting rid of Miles is money. If Miles is fired before Jan. 1, he would be owed $15 million, payable over eight years (twice the time remaining on his current contract). His assistants would have to be paid roughly an additional $2 million, so that's $17 million total And if you go looking for a big-name college coach to replace Miles, you are looking at several more millions for a buyout. Already you hear the name of Florida State's Jimbo Fisher. Not sure why Fisher would leave the much-easier ACC for the deathtrap that is the SEC West. He was an assistant coach in Baton Rouge from 2000-06.

If I'm a prominent LSU backer, I simply look at Nebraska with what can go wrong in firing a successful coach. The Huskers did that after last season even though Bo Pelini always won nine games. This year under coach Mike Riley, Nebraska is just 5-6 and has to upset unbeaten Iowa next week to make a lower-level bowl game. Be careful what you wish for!

Here are some news, notes and any line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

No. 15 LSU at No. 22 Ole Miss (-6.5): This line has risen two points from its opening. A loss week would mark the Tigers' first three-game skid since 1999. And Fournette might not even get an invite to New York as a Heisman finalist if he struggles here. He has combined for 38 carries and 122 yards in the two-game losing streak. Fournette's lowest rushing total before that was 158 yards vs. South Carolina. The Tigers will catch a bit of a break here in that Ole Miss linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche, brother of the Rebels' excellent defensive tackle Robert, was hospitalized this week with some non-life threatening condition and won't play. Nkemdiche has played in all 10 games for the Rebels and leads the team in tackles with 53.

UCLA at No. 13 Utah (-2): This has dropped one point from its open. The Utes lost control of their own destiny to win the Pac-12 South Division with last week's double-overtime upset loss at Arizona. Now Utah is tied with USC atop the South, with the Trojans holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. UCLA is a game back so if the Bruins win here and USC loses at Oregon it's a jumbled mess. Utah will be without its best player the rest of the season -- he might be able to return for a bowl game -- in running back Devontae Booker as he will miss 4-6 weeks following meniscus surgery on his knee. That loss can't be understated. Booker rushed for 145 yards and a touchdown last week to equal a school record with his 14th career 100-yard game. The senior has 1,261 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns this season. He also has 37 catches for 318 yards receiving. Joe Williams, a junior college transfer who began his career at Connecticut, will start. He has 78 yards on 19 carries this year.

No. 12 Michigan at Penn State (+3.5): This has dropped two points and I love PSU here because Michigan has been pretty lucky in beating Indiana and Minnesota on the road over the past few weeks, and Penn State is unbeaten at home. I also think there's no way that the Wolverines players aren't looking ahead to next week's game with Ohio State, which could be for the Big Ten title depending on what the Buckeyes and Wolverines do Saturday. I'm not a Michigan fan at all, but I have to admit that Jim Harbaugh is entertaining. He absolutely refused this week to say he's rooting for Ohio State against Michigan State even though an OSU win combined with a UM win sets up the Big Ten East title game. "What's the best outcome for us?" Harbaugh said. "What's best for Michigan is what I'll be (rooting for)." No Michigan coach would ever say he is rooting for Ohio State. Michigan hasn't won in Happy Valley since 2006.

No. 10 Baylor at No. 6 Oklahoma State (-1): Bit surprised this line hasn't moved yet because not it's unclear whether Baylor starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham can play. The freshman played through a back injury in last week's loss to Oklahoma and everything was supposedly fine on Monday for him to go here -- just a lot of soreness. When Baylor coach Art Briles updated the media later in the week, he said the recovery wasn't going as well as he had hoped. On the season, Stidham has thrown for 1,007 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has started the past two after Heisman Trophy candidate Seth Russell was lost for the season. Sophomore Chris Johnson, who spent part of this season as a receiver, is Stidham's backup. I love the Pokes here now.

No. 17 North Carolina at Virginia Tech (+5). Line opened at +6. If the Hokies players ever wanted to win one for Coach Frank Beamer, it will be here as it's Beamer's final home game with him retiring after the season. Beamer is 236-120-2 in his 29 seasons at Virginia Tech. He guided the Hokies to four ACC titles, three Big East championships and six appearances in BCS bowl games (one national title game loss). Tech won at least 10 games every year from 2004-11 but has lost a minimum of five every season since. The Hokies have the longest active bowl streak in the nation at 22 straight. At 5-5, they either have to upset the Heels here or win next week at Virginia to keep that going. Tech will wear some very cool all-black uniforms for the first time Saturday. As for red-hot UNC, it earns a spot opposite Clemson in the ACC Championship Game with a win or Pittsburgh loss to Louisville. An upset here wouldn't shock me at all. Virginia Tech has won 10 of its last 11 home finales. Oh, and my predicted Beamer replacement: Rich Rodriguez.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

UCLA at Utah November 21, 3:30 EST

Despite Utah (8-2, 5-5 ATS) stumbling 37-30 at Arizona as 5.5-point favorite motivation should be high as Utes still have a shot at the Pac-12 South. Utes with its unblemished home record (5-0, 2-3 ATS) are 2.5 point favorites. Won't be a cake walk. The Bruins (7-3, 3-5-1 ATS) have shown a knack of coming up big on the road lately (12-1, 8-5 ATS) including 8-1 (6-3 ATS) vs the conference.


Baylor at Oklahoma State November 21, 7:30 EST

Oklahoma State puts a pair of 10-0 records on the line. The squad is not only undefeated on the campaign (10-0, 6-4 ATS), but Pickens 'Pokes' spanking Bears 49-17 last season have won 10 consecutive vs Baylor (9-1 ATS). 'Pokes' 1.0 point favorite in their own back yard have cashed 5-of-6 laying 2.5 or less, Bears have struggled as pups of 2.5 or less going 1-5 ATS. 'Pokes' are a Pick'm.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Nov. 21

LOUISVILLE at PITT
Petrino has dropped 3 of last 5 vs. spread away from Papa John's. Cards "under" 14-8 since LY for Petrino. Panthers 0-4 vs. spread at Heinz Field TY.

Slight to 'Ville, based on recent Pitt home woes.


BUFFALO at AKRON
Buff no covers last three overall TY and no covers last three on MAC trail for Leipold. Also 1-5 vs. spread last six on MAC trail. Buff routed Bowden 55-24 LY. Zips only 2-6-1 last nine vs. line at InfoCision.

Slight to Buffalo, based on extended Zip home woes.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA
Richt 3-7 vs. line last ten in reg. season, also "under" 8-3 last eleven. GS 5-2 vs. line last 7 TY.

GSU, based on team trends.


RUTGERS at ARMY
Army just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Michie. 'Gers no covers last 4 or 7 of last 9 TY, 1-3 vs. spread away TY after good road marks previous.

Slight to Army, based on recent trends.


CHARLOTTE at KENTUCKY
Stoops no covers last six TY as UK just 2-8 vs. spread in 2015, 3-12-1 last 16 since mid 2014. Though Stoops is 6-2 as chalk since 2013 and 6-2-1 last nine vs. spread against non-SEC.

Slight to UK, based on team trends.


INDIANA at MARYLAND
Locksley hard-to-believe 3-0-1 vs. line for Terps, also 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 TY . IU 0-6 SU last 6, "over" 13-5 last 18 since mid 2014. Terps "over" 7-4-1 last 12.

Maryland and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at UMASS (McGuirk Stadium)
UMass 3-9 last 12 on board. RedHawks are 10-6-1 last 17 on board for Chuck Martin, 5-1 last six as MAC road dog. RedHawks end their season with this game!

Miami-O, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS
Holgorsen 7-12 last 19 overall vs. number. Also no covers last four away from Morgantown. Though KU just 3-9 last 12 on board. Jayhawks have covered last two in series!

Slight to KU, based on recent series trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA STATE
Note the road team is 8-0-1 vs. line in GSU games this season! Though Jags only 2-6 vs. line TY and 4-11-1 last 16 on board.

Slight to USA, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at UCONN
Cougs 4-0 vs. line away TY, 14-0-1 vs. spread last 15 as visitor! Also 25-12-1 last 38 vs. spread overall. Diaco 3-9 vs. line at Rentsch since LY.

UH, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at CLEMSON
Wake 2-6 vs. line last eight away. Dabo 7-3-2 last 12 on board.

Clemson, based on team trends.


WKU at FIU
Ron Turner 8-4 vs. line last 12 as host and 15-9 last 24 vs. spread since late 2013. He's 4-3 last seven as home dog and 11-6 last 17 as dog overall. Tops only 3-6-1 vs. spread last 10 away from home.

FIU, based on team trends.


LSU at OLE MISS
Dog has covered last three in series. But LSU 1-4 last five as dog. Hugh Freeze 40-20-1 vs. spread since 2011.

Ole Miss, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNT has covered 4 of 5 for Canales but 2-10 last 12 as road dog since LY. Stockstill 8-3 vs. number last 11 at Murfreesboro vs. C-USA foes.

MTSU, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA
Gophers 3-0 vs. line for Claeys and 9-1 vs. spread for him since 2013 (counting his fill-in games for Kill in 2013). Gophers have won and covered 3 of last 4 in series but lost 28-24 at Champaign-Urbana LY. Illini 4-13 last 17 as dog away from home (1-2 TY).

Minnesota, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at TEMPLE
Rhule has covered last two years vs. Fuente. Tigers only 4-4-1 vs. line TY while Owls have covered 7 of 9. Memphis 8-3-1 "over" last 12.

Slight to Temple, based on team and series trends.


DUKE at VIRGINIA
Cutcliffe has won and covered last three and 6 of 7 vs. Cavs since arriving at Durham in 2008, but 0-3 SU and vs. line last 3 TY. Cavs are 13-3-1 last 17 as dog for Mike London, 6-1 last 7 as home dog.

UVa, based on recent trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH
Final home game for Beamer. He's only 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Lane Stadium. But he has won and covered last two years vs. Fedora. Heels 4-1 vs. line last five on ACC trail.

Slight to UNC, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN
Pat Fitz 10-5 last 15 as visiting dog. Paul Chryst only 5-5 vs. line TY and was almost .500 vs. line (18-17) at Pitt as well.

NU, based on Fitzgerald road dog marks.


SYRACUSE at NC STATE
NCS on 9-4 spread streak since late 2014 and 7-1 last 8 as chalk. Cuse 1-5 last six vs. number on road.

NCS, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS
Dan Mullen has won last three SU vs. Hogs and is 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor. If Mullen a dog note 8-2 mark last ten in role. Bielema has covered 5 of last 6 TY though just 2-3 vs. spread as host TY.

MSU, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.


FRESNO STATE at BYU
Fresno no wins or covers five of last six away and 3-8 last 11 on board. Cougs 5-1 vs. spread last six at Provo.

BYU, based on team trends.


NAVY at TULSA
Tulsa great vs. line on road lately but not so much as home (1-4 TY, 2-8 last 10). Mids 8-2 vs. line last nine on board, 10-4 last 14, and 6-1 as chalk TY.

Navy, based on team trends.


GEORGIA TECH at MIAMI-FLA
Prior to 2014 this had been a bad matchup for GT, as Canes had won and covered five straight in series. Jackets now on 1-7 SU and spread skid.

Miami, based on team and series trends.


TENNESSEE at MISSOURI
Mizzou has won and covered all three vs. Vols since entering SEC in 2012. But Tigers just 3-7 vs. line TY. Butch 4-1 vs. spread last five away from Knoxville, 6-3 last nine.

UT, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE
Surging OSU 5-2-1 last eight on board. Gundy 6-1 SU and vs. line against Briles since 2008. Baylor only 5-9 last 14 on board.

OSU, based on series trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at OHIO STATE
These teams have split SU and vs. spread past four seasons. Spartans only 2-7-1 vs. line in 2015 but Dantonio 10-1 last 11 as dog. Urban only 3-6 vs. spread last nine TY himself and 1-5 vs. spread at big horseshoe in 2015.

MSU, based on team trends.


TCU at OKLAHOMA
Frogs 1-4 vs. spread on road TY and 1-6 vs. number last seven as visitor. But if Patterson a dog note 5-2 mark last seven in role. Stoops 4-1 vs. line in Norman TY.

OU, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at PENN STATE
Home team is 13-4 vs. spread last 17 Penn State games under Franklin, though most of that due to poor Penn State road marks (Franklin 6-4 vs. line last 10 as host). Franklin 6-12 last 18 vs. spread in reg season. Harbaugh has covered 5 of last 9 TY.

Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.


ODU at SOUTHERN MISS
ODU improving but still just 2-8 vs. line this season. USM 8-2 vs. spread in 2015.

USM, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA at ARIZONA STATE
Territorial Cup! Teams have split last eight SU. ASU only 3-7 vs. line TY. Cats "over" 8-2 this season. Last three and four of last five "over" in series.

Slight to Arizona and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE
Competitive series, 2-2-1 last five vs. spread. Though Cyclones just 2-5-1 vs. line last 8 away. Bill Snyder 0-2 as home chalk TY but was 14-6 in role previous three seasons.

Slight to KSU, based on Snyder trends.


NEVADA at UTAH STATE
Pack has covered 6 of last 8 TY and Polian 8-2 vs. points last 10 as visitor. Utags have covered last three at Logan, though just 5-5 vs. spread at Romney since LY.

Nevada, based on Wolf Pack road mark.


CAL at STANFORD
Big Game! Cal has faded again, Bears just 2-3 vs. spread away TY after 5-0 mark vs. spread in role last season. Tree has covered last three and won last five Big Games SU.

Stanford, based on team and recent Big Game trends.


TULANE at SMU
No covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY for SMU, no covers last 4 at home. Wave has covered last 4 of 6 of last 8 TY.

Tulane, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at ULL
NMSU has covered last 2, 3 of 4, and 4 of 6, not bad after the bad slump prior. Cajuns no covers last four and just 1-4-1 vs. spread last six this season.

Slight to NMSU, based on team and series road trends.


COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO
McElwain was 3-0 SU and vs. line against Davie past three years but Rams just 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Fort Collins. Lobos 8-4 last 12 as dog overall.

UNM, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE
Beavs just 2-8 vs. line TY, 4-18 since 2014. Just 2-8 last 10 vs. line at Corvallis. Huskies won and covered last three years vs. Riley. UW "under" 20-5 last 25.

UW and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


RICE at UTSA
Owls slumping with no covers last four or 5 of last 6 but Bailiff still 8-4 last 12 vs. spread away from home. Owls have won and covered last three vs. Coker. UTSA just 6-13-1 last 20 on board.

Rice, based on team and series trends.


UCLA at UTAH
Mora 14-8 vs. spread as pure visitor since 2012 and is 2-1 SU vs. Whittingham, though Utes did win LY at Rose Bowl. Utes just 2-5 vs. line last seven in SLC.

Slight to UCLA, based on team trends.


TEXAS A&M at VANDERBILT
Derek Mason surprising 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on board, and have covered 5 of last 6 as SEC host. Ags no covers last five TY and just 3-10 last 13 vs. spread in SEC games.

Vandy, based on team trends.


COLORADO at WASHINGTON STATE
Buffs have covered 3 of last 4 TY, but WSU has covered last 7 and 8 of last 9 TY.

Slight to WSU, based on recent trends.


FAU at FLORIDA
McElwain 28-10-1 vs. line last 38 on board at CSU and Florida but note FAU 18-4 vs. points last 22 away!

Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at AUBURN
Vandals are 9-1 as visiting dog since LY! Malzahn 2-13 last 15 on board since mid 2014.

Idaho, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE (at Fenway Park)
Irish 7-3-1 last 11 vs. line since late LY, rock-ribbed BC just 2-7-1 its last 10 on board. Though Eagles and have covered 9 of last 12 meetings!

Slight to ND, based on recent trends.


USC at OREGON
Trojans just 8-11 last 19 on board (5-5 TY) and 3-7 last ten as dog. Ducks have won and covered 3 of last 4 meetings, though no meetings since 2012. Ducks have covered 4 straight and 5 of last 6 TY.

Oregon, based on team trends.


LA TECH at UTEP
LT 10-4 vs. line last 14 away from Ruston and 11-6 last 17 as chalk. Skip 2-0 SU and vs. line against Sean Kugler.

La Tech, based on team trends.


PURDUE at IOWA
Ferentz only 2-4 vs. line at Iowa City TY despite unbeaten SU mark. Boilermakers a startling 7-1 vs. number their last eight on Big Ten road!

Slight to Purdue, based on recent Big Ten road dog mark.


SAN DIEGO STATE at UNLV
Rebs have covered last three in series but just 3-9 last 12 vs. spread as host. Aztecs have won and covered six straight TY.

Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at HAWAII
UH 1-8 vs. line last nine TY and has dropped 9 of last 10 vs. line at Aloha Stadium vs. MW foes.

SJSU, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

For the second day in a row on Friday the weather threw me for a loop, as I thought we would be back on turf and the track would be fast. Nope, muddy and off the turf and I spent most of the morning cursing at The Weather Channel.

The early forecast for Thursday was a 90% chance of rain, but the track was fast and turf firm and there was no rain in sight. I have said it before, if weathermen had to wager on their forecasts most would be living in a cardboard box.

The forecast looks promising for Saturday at the Big A and I am expecting to be back on turf for the nine race card that features a pair of stakes. The feature is the $100,000 Artie Schiller for three-year-olds and upward going one mile on turf.

The marquee race of the weekend is the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race and a solid wagering affair.

The race anchors an 11-race card at the Vinton, Louisiana track, with eight stakes on tap on what looks like a great betting card.

The Delta Jackpot favorite is going to be the Keith Desormeaux trained Exaggerator, who was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). The colt is currently listed at 30-1 in early Kentucky Derby future betting, with just six runners at lower prices. Nyquist is the early betting favorite at 10-1.

Exaggerator won the Saratoga Special (G2) at the Spa back in August and is the only graded stakes winner in the field, but his price is going to be on the light side.

I am going to look for the up and coming Whitmore, who at 8-1 is going to end up offering more value for the top spot. The Ron Moquett trainee was a good-looking maiden winner in his debut at Churchill Downs and should only get better with more ground.


Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#3 Stormin Sandy 12-1
#4 Cotton Candy Cutie 7-2
#8 Tough Temper 4-1
#10 Preying Mantis 5-2

Analysis: Stormin Sandy showed good early speed in dirt in her debut before weakening to finish fifth last out at 6-1 in a field of eight. The $170,000 purchase should take to turf, she is out of a D'Accord mare that has dropped three winners and two of them are turf winners, top earner My Dinah ($450,391).

Cotton Candy Cutie tracked the early pace and finished with some interest for the runner up spot last out in her first go on turf, beaten a length for the top spot. The third place finisher lady Lucky came back to graduate in her next outing on Oct. 12 at Belmont Park. She comes back here off a two month break for the Bruce Brown barn that is 11% winners with runners coming back off a 46-90 day break.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,8,10
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,8,10 / 3,4,8,10,13

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Artie Schiller (3:50 ET)
#6 Aztec Brave 6-1
#10 Reload 5-2
#4 Lubash 3-1
#1 Sky Flight 6-1

Analysis: Aztec Brave pressed the early ape, opened up a clear lead and did not have enough punch left inside the final furlong, weakening to finish third, beaten a length in the Teleprompter at Arlington Park. This guy has won five of his dozen starts on turf and earned back to back 103 Beyers three and four back including winning the Danger's Hour over the turf here back in April. Decent value if he goes off near his 6-1 morning line.

Reload beat $80,000 optional claimers last out off a two-month break for the Shug barn. This guy has won four of his six career starts on turf including the Canadian Turf (G3) in Feb. of '14 at Gulfstream Park. He owns back numbers good enough to win in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 1,4,6,10
TRI: 6,10 / 1,4,6,10 / 1,2,4,6,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Delta Downs:

DeD Race 7 The Delta Downs Jackpot G3 (4:15 CT)
#4 Whitmore 8-1
#9 Exaggerator 2-1
#3 Sunny Ridge 7-2
#7 Found Money 6-1

Analysis: Whitmore broke his maiden in a 12-horse field at Churchill Downs going six furlongs, sent off at 15-1. The gelding was off a beat slow, tracked the early pace, came with a five wide run and drew off smartly to win by 7 ¼ lengths. Only one foe he beat in that race has run back, seventh place finisher Raofthesun came back to run fifth in his next start. The gelding is bred to run long, by Pleasantly Perfect out of a Scat Daddy mare, her first foal to race. The Ronald Moquett barn is 20% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Decent value of this guy goes off near the 8-1 morning line but have a hunch he may end up taking some action.

Exaggerator is the long graded stakes winner in the field, taking the Saratoga Special (G2) this summer at the Spa in his first go against winners. He then was a good second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in his first route try, beaten a length for the top spot. The colt did not have a good trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his most recent outing where he checked in fourth. The colt was forced out soon after the start, tracked the early pace heading down the backstretch, came with a four wide bid and flattened out late. A clean trip makes him tough here but his price may end up on the light side.

Sunny Ridge makes his first start since a runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) in the slop at Belmont Park, beaten 4 ½ lengths for the top spot by Greenpointcrusader, who returned to run seventh in the Juvenile. The Jason Servis trainee won the Sapling two back in his first go around two turns. The runner up in that race was Full Salute, who won the Hall of Fame at Philly in his next outing on Sept. 26. The gelding has moved forward in each outing and should get a good tracking trip from mid pack.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 3,4,7,9
TRI: 4,9 / 3,4,7,9 / 1,3,4,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Stormin Sandy 12-1
R2: #8 Dighton 8-1
R3: #6 Kangaroo Style 8-1
R3: #3 Resolve 10-1
R4: #6 No Entiendo 10-1
R5: #8 Sanctify 10-1
R7: #2 Don Dolce 8-1
R9: #5 Foggy Mountain Cat 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 11/21 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (50 - 80 / $175.60): CAM B ZIPPER (9th)

Spot Play: PARTY HANGOVER (3rd)


Race 1

(7) RICHESS NESTOR came up empty last week but will offer a good price in a wide open race. (9) CAMWISER has dominated at this level all year long. (10) BET ON HIM pacer needed his last start and could use a good setup.

Race 2

In a very tough race to gauge, (10) FLUKY'S GIRL gets sent out for proven connections and has been improving. (7) SIMPLY BURBON looks like the horse to beat on paper facing easier but rarely wins; command a price. (1) TEQUILA BABE gets the best post and was the driver's choice; threat.

Race 3

(6) PARTY HANGOVER raced gamely last week from a tough post and will offer the best price of the contenders. (7) RYLEIGH'S LILLY hasn't made a start in almost a month. The pacing mare will swoop this field for fun if ready. (1) JUST BY DESIGN veteran mare has had another great year but could be starting to wear down a bit.

Race 4

(8) ONE TO DRAW TO lightly raced pacer has room to improve on the big track. (9) MACHO BURBON is a threat to win if he minds his manners. (6) WINDY CITY JACK makes his career debut and was full of late pace in the qualifier.

Race 5

In another tough race to handicap, (6) WESTERN SLAMMER was the driver's choice of three and was sneaky good last week. (4) GOLDEN NUGGET has yet to prove himself on the big track but should be in line for a decent trip against weaker. (5) NITROGEN FUSE is 0 for the year but could hit the ticket underneath at a price.

Race 6

(1) SCARY HARRY has been off over a month after a huge effort. If the well bred pacer is ready he can repeat. (2) VALIENTE STRIDE has done his best work late in the mile in two straight; threat. (6) PART TIME went a big effort last week out of the ten hole being used multiple times. The pacer has two wins at this level on the year.

Race 7

In a very competitive field, (6) COMPANY MAN was lights out last week taking no prisoners in a lifetime mark. The pacer could be starting to blossom late in the year. (4) FEELNLIKEAROCKSTAR doesn't have a whole lot of wins on the year but shouldn't be counted out. (3) A COOL CARD pacer will look to make it four straight; threat.

Race 8

(3) MAKE IT WORK was in over his head last week up in class. The pacer drops back in for a tag and was the driver's choice; fires early. (8) CHARLEY'SFASTCAT gets sent out first start in a new barn; big chance. (9) DONTGETBYME comes off a nice win at Hoosier against better but could have too much to do from a tough outside post.

Race 9

(5) CAM B ZIPPER beat a better bunch two starts ago and will be tough to beat with an early breather up front. (4) COLE HEAT his last race is a bit deceiving on paper. The pacer was uncovered almost the entire mile from far back and didn't miss by much. (1) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE just missed at this level last start and looks in line for a much easier trip this week.

Race 10

(2) CRUEL GIRL should still offer value off a big upset victory. The 5-year-old mare just needs another good setup. (6) HELLO MY DREAM pacing mare makes her third start back off a long layoff and should be primed for a better effort. (1) WINGS pacing mare is probably the horse to beat but should only be used underneath for a low percentage pilot; use caution.

Race 11

(8) ROCKIN THE HOUSE went a good effort against much tougher last week. The pacer gets sent out for proven connections and will be tough to beat with a trouble-free trip. (6) MASTER OF DESIRE was the driver's choice dropping in class. (3) MONTERO BLUE CHIP has just been racing evenly after a sharp effort a month ago. The pacer picks up a huge driver change and could be dangerous if he races back to that effort.

Race 12

(5) CRUISE QUEEN gets a perfect starting post with options off a nice winning effort. (8) MUY CALIENTE might not be suited for the big track but does own back class on the field. (1) YES WE DID look for a better effort out of the pacer against softer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/21 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,5,7/1,3/4,9/1.3/1,5,6,10 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3/1,5,6,10/4,6,8/4,6,7 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 4,5,8/3,6,9/4,6,7/8 = $27

MEET STATS: 85 - 293 / 433.70 BEST BETS: 14 - 26 / $46.80

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 26 / $85.00

Best Bet: VEGAS ROCKS (11th)

Spot Play: CRAFTY MASTER (12th)


Race 1

(7) MACH ON THE BEACH has turned up his game out of town recently and picks up the leading driver here and should drop at least a couple of seconds off his London time. (2) STATURE SEELSTER took a new life's mark last week and is the one to beat. (5) SPORTS LIGHTNING raced evenly against a better field last week and should be used on Pick 5 tickets.

Race 2

(1) MS MAC N CHEESE is razor-sharp right now and can race effectively from anywhere the driver chooses; top call. (3) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY just failed to hold off the choice last week and is the main danger. (4) BET YA looks like the main speed threat. She would need a major breather to hold off the top two, though.

Race 3

(9) WIN THE DAY takes a huge class drop here but is also likely to be overbet. He's no lock from the 9-hole in this series' 1st leg, but does look best on paper. (4) STORMONT WIZARD continues to fire home quickly every week and is the main - if not only - danger. (2) MY MY HEY HEY can put a solid mile together when he stays flat which has been a rarity lately.

Race 4

(1) CAJON LIGHTNING managed to get himself trapped at the worst time at the head of the lane last week which cost him the win. He can take this with a more alert steer. (3) DOCTOR ROYAL has been very sharp in his last two and should be primed for a good showing in this series. (6) NATURESCAPE was very fast earlier in the year and bears inclusion on Pick 5 tickets in his first start back off a rest.

Race 5

(6) MONTEZUMA BLUECHIP got cooked early going for the front last week. Filion may elect to revert to a closing style similar to the one used in his win two back. (1) ROCKINONBY ships in sporting several miles that should make him competitive here although he may need one over the track first to produce his best. (5) GOOD FRIDAY THREE looked like one of the better 3YO this spring then went off the rails. Both he and trainer Robinson return to the track here and bear watching.

Race 6

(8) TAROT makes his third start off the shelf here and should be ready to produce his best effort now. (6) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT won in this class Monday night and comes right back for more; using. (4) MUSICAL RHYTHM ships in and joins the Baillargeon barn but has missed almost a month; mixed signals.

Race 7

(7) PUSH BACK drops looking to pop and should get an aggressive steer from Henry here. (6) VELOCITY DRIVEN has found his very best form and merits inclusion on Pick 4 tickets. (4) CHEYENNE REIDER was nailed by the one above last week but could turn the tables if he can reverse the trip here.

Race 8

(4) GRONK was hard-used last week and only faltered late. He should be tough in here. (5) FREDDIE has been racing well at Flamboro and fits well here. (8) LOVE HUNTER faltered late but now gets Lasix which could make the difference.

Race 9

(6) HIGH FASHION MEL used a big third quarter to get in contention last week then motored home to register the upset. Henry should keep this sharp filly closer this time looking to double up. (9) HAZMATT is always dangerous in this class but needs to work out a trip from out there. (3) ABBIJADE HANOVER has solid form but always seems to get just a slice.

Race 10

(7) ELLIS PARK escapes the white-hot Prescotts Hope this week and deserves top billing here. (4) BILBO HANOVER is sharp as a tack for a hot outfit; using. (6) EVENIN OF PLEASURE will be dangerous from close range here, as always.

Race 11

(8) VEGAS ROCKS is one of the sharpest horses on the circuit and should take his fourth straight here. (6) THORN IN YOUR SIDE drops slightly and could live up to his name if he can land in the choice's pocket early. (2) MACHAL JORDAN is in good form and should follow along for a share here.

Race 12

(9) CRAFTY MASTER was live last week but didn't get the greatest trip. He can upset here using his deep closing style if the pace is honest. (4) TOPCORNERTERROR ships back in off a win at Flamboro for the top trainer and is dangerous here. (8) SOMEWHERE FANCY took big action at the windows last week and disappointed. He should go better here with that start under his belt. (6) LISVINNIE steps up off a quick win and can share here. (10) PRINCE CLYDE is capable of grabbing a share at a big price here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/21 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 10 - 24 / $63.60 BEST BETS: 0 - 2 / $0.00

Best Bet: E L TITAN (7th)

Spot Play: ALEX BULLVILLE (4th)


Race 1

(1) ANOTHER DAILY COPY dropped out of stakes competition and came up big at Pocono on Oct. 27 before getting demolished in the Governor’s Cup last week. He is back in his comfort zone and should show up with a nice effort. (3) SAPIENT HANOVER has that 1:50 3/5 winning mile at The Red Mile which jumps off the page two-back. He too was overmatched in the Governor’s Cup; rebounds? (5) MAJOR ADONIS wasn’t competitive in NYSS action but is another who proved himself at the non-winners level. If he is ready off the bench he could be a price play.

Race 2

(2) MISSION BRIEF is the fastest filly in this race and one of the fastest trotters ever. If she shows up, she wins. (1) WILD HONEY should be chasing the top choice waiting for any kinks in the armor.

Race 3

(5) HOPE FOR BADLANDS scored for me last week at 6-1 and I see no reason to jump ship. This horse finished with a full head of steam and is in career form. (8) AIMO HANOVER comes off consecutive breaks but those were on the half at Yonkers. Gingras is back in the bike and I wouldn’t be shocked if this gelding turned it around. (7) OUR DRAGON KING has the credentials to win and hails from a barn that sends them ready.

Race 4

(3) ALEX BULLVILLE wasn’t bad closing from last a week ago. This guy can step up in soft spots like this one and the addition of Gingras should only help. (1) SHAMDEROCK should be able to stay closer to the action from this post. (8) MUST BE THE BUNNY gets a nice driver change to Zeron. (5) STAMPED BY DESIGN also gets a new driver, Hall of Famer Dave Miller.

Race 5

(4) MILLIGAN’S SCHOOL has come up short to two of tonight’s foes in consecutive starts. This guy is the fastest horse in the race and it won’t take much to make up that neck at a healthy price. (5) DOG GONE LUCKY deserves some respect after winning four straight, but as the possible chalk, I’m not in love with him as a top pick. (6) MAKE OR MISS was absolutely flying late in his elimination. If he brings that same effort and has clear sailing, you have to think he has a shot. (3) WAITLIFTER K has some talent if he can get away cleaning from the starting gate.

Race 6

(2) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP took over a year off from racing and actually did okay to stay within six lengths of a good Open field at Pocono in his return effort. Now with three starts under his belt (two qualifiers and a race), he should be ready to fire. (8) ONTARIO SUCCESS is a hard-knocking type who seems to be in a good spot. (3) ROCKIN WIZARD basically toyed with cheaper last time.

Race 7

(3) E L TITAN is certainly the freshest horse in the race and his start over the track last week was stellar. Regardless of trip I love his chances tonight. (4) RESOLVE stole the race on the engine last week. He’ll flash speed and bring an honest (perhaps winning?) effort. (2) THE BANK has found his form in recent weeks and might just be good enough to trot with the big boys given the right trip.

Race 8

(8) BOSTON RED ROCKS was conservatively handled last time and just missed the win. He has been brought along perfectly by trainer Steve Elliott and looks like the best horse right now. (4) BIG TOP HANOVER is hard to knock off consecutive wins; main danger. (2) SPIDER MAN HANOVER won’t be on any of my tickets in the top spot, but he should be used everywhere in the exotics.

Race 9

(4) MAH SISH N has enough form to think he can come up with a big effort and he seems to be a better ‘big track’ horse. (6) BURKENTINE HANOVER was a credible second last week and that got Corey Callahan to stay here over #5. This guy likes to win with 24 career tallies in 76 chances. (5) MISTER TRUTH raced okay in his latest and wouldn’t be a shock here.

Race 10

(3) PRINCE PALANI probably needed his last start after a two month hiatus. This guy is far from a world-beater, but this field has plenty of question marks. (6) CASTLE FLIGHT picks up David Miller and moves into a new barn. Hoosier shipper seems worth a look as a horse with early speed in a race that lacks too many with that trait. (8) AHDOUGHNOLUM split foes with pace last time. He has a shot if he can get into the race from the outside post.

Race 11

The 3-year-old filly pacing division has been a crapshoot all year, so I’m going to roll the dice with longshot (9) BETTOR N BETTER. She qualified very well over a track that was hardly ‘fast’ and could be helped by the addition of Lasix or the move to the Bamond barn. There are enough angles to warrant a selection at a big price. (7) DIVINE CAROLINE is the divisional leader and certainly the one to beat; must use. (1) BEDROOMCONFESSIONS has to prove to me that she can win a big one before I’ll put her on top, but she’ll be on the bottom of my exotic tickets. (6) MOREMERCY BLUECHIP moves into the Ron Burke barn and could certainly improve in a hurry. (5) SASSA HANOVER has plenty of stakes credentials; hard to knock her.

Race 12

(3) FOILED AGAIN seems to have found a cozy spot in a small field where he can out-game his competition. (2) JK ENDOFANERA does his best work when he can wait and pounce. I’m not sure this is the best spot for those tactics. (6) MACH IT SO stole a race on the lead last time and is eligible to try to do it again.

Race 13

(4) UP UP AND OUT gets a ton of class relief and deserves the call. (6) ITRUSTYOU arrives from Hoosier for Burke/Gingras; classy. (1) BEGINNER’S LUCK couldn’t handle the trip last time; very capable. (8) RELENTLESS NATIVE was a solid winner versus lesser a week ago.

Race 14

(7) DANGER HI JOLTAGE never got involved from the outside post last time but had some late pace. Let’s give him another shot since he outdrew (10) UF FAST FEELIN, who swept the field impressive for a high percentage barn. (6) WHITE SPORTSCOAT was a bit flat off the bench; more now? (9) CHATTANOOGA JIM flashed some high speed a week ago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 11/21 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 368 - 1108 / $2,039.80 BEST BETS: 54 - 89 / $189.10

Best Bet: SAPPHIRE CITY (10th)

Spot Play: DRUNKEN DESIRE A (12th)


Race 1

(2) BET THE MOON dropped back to this NW12000 class last week and was a good second from the eight hole; his prior start at this level resulted in an odds-on win; Burke trainee is clearly the one to deny in the opener. (5) MOVEOUTOFMYWAY had no chance but finished with pace last out; speed threat. (1) GALLANT SEELSTER draws best but seems to have tailed off of late; use underneath.

Race 2

(6) SAND BENELLI has put in two solid efforts since dropping to this class and he deserves a long look despite the outside post. (1) RONNY BUGATTI wasn't bad last week after saving ground; the rail draw makes him a player. (5) STATION THREEOHSIX is better than he's been showing and he'll wake up and pop eventually.

Race 3

(2) MC DYNAMITE took the conservative rail route and missed out on following the winner's cover last week then finished with pace in traffic; a more aggressive steer can get the job done. (1) SPARKY MARK has plenty of speed and class but may need a start off the brief vacation. (4) SIX GUN battled uncovered and gave way last week and the start prior he faltered on the front end; perhaps the drop in class can help his cause tonight.

Race 4

(1) TINK AND TIGER always seems to give an honest effort and the drop in class with the inside draw can get him over the top. (4) BIG JER was a good second at this level two back and last week he had no chance. (3) MUSTANG MACH N is a rare Banca horse that's done nothing off the claim; he drops in class, moves inside and returns to Bartlett. Expect an aggressive try tonight.

Race 5

(4) BACKUP A certainly makes the most sense in here as he hails from live connections and has been in good form but don't accept too short of a price on him. (3) GARNET RIVER A faces better but his last two local efforts were good. (1) EMPEROR MONTANA N was second best versus better last week and he draws best again.

Race 6

(5) IDEAL COWBOY was the easiest kind of winner last week facing 4-year-old types; he's back in with tougher tonight but he's proven to be a legitimate force with these and he's almost certain to have a tactical advantage over (6) TAKE IT BACK TERRY. The latter is a sharp money-making machine for Burke and he'll be chasing again from this spot; can he reach? (4) THE REAL ONE is always right there for Lachance and he figures for a minor award here.

Race 7

(3) ALBERTO CONTADOR N was in over his head in his last two but the Cassar trainee should still be sharp and he can take this competitive event with smooth sailing. (5) BIGTOWN HERO returns locally for Allard off a solid win versus good foes at Pocono. (2) PASS THEM BY N is in career form for the Lance Hudson barn.

Race 8

(8) ALWAYS AT MY PLACE returns to Yonkers for Burke where he sports a perfect record; he's overcome eight-hole assignments before. (1) MELBERBY BEACH ships from Canada, where he's been knocking heads with some of the best, and joins the Annunziata barn; he'll look to pay immediate dividends. (7) WINDS OF CHANGE has been super since moving to the Takter barn.

Race 9

(2) TWIN B HOLLISTER has been rather dull lately but he gets post relief in his second start at this reduced level and Bartlett's back driving. (1) SANTANNA ONE gave way on the front end last week but he always has to be considered from inside posts. (3) VILLAGE BAT has been good recently for the Mark Ford barn.

Race 10

(6) SAPPHIRE CITY didn't give it his all last week upon dropping; he's down another notch tonight and should be aggressively handled. (2) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE woke up some last week with the class relief. (4) LUCKY MCTRUCKY has been very sharp for the Abbatiello barn.

Race 11

(4) PANIC DISORDER was used hard last week to protect position and it ended up backfiring as he had nothing left late; prior form has been stellar and he should be a juicy price tonight. (3) SNAP TO IT A has been facing tougher recently with mixed results; Bamond trainee should threaten with these. (1) MICKEY HANOVER runs hot and cold but if he's in the mood he can take all.

Race 12

(4) DRUNKEN DESIRE A raced pretty well off a tough trip last week and lands an improved post in this tough-to-figure finale; worth a look. (1) CLINT WESTWOOD has raced well since shipping to Yonkers and he draws well again. (3) FREESPIN N prevailed versus lesser last out but he's been competitive with this type in the past.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Balmoral Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 12 - Post: 10:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$3500 - FILLIES & MARES, NON-WINNERS OF $2,000 IN THE LAST 5 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 MUY CALIENTE 7/2


# 5 CRUISE QUEEN 8/1


# 2 ARTS-ROCKSTAR 8/1


MUY CALIENTE looks really strong to best this field of horses. She's competing in good form, recording huge TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent selection. A competitive class horse should not be be passed over. With an average class figure of 83 all signs say this is the one to beat. Could best this field of starters, just look at the TrackMaster SR - 78 - from her most recent contest. CRUISE QUEEN - Loved this mare's last race. Ran a strong 76 speed figure. Major player. With Oosting in the cart, watch out for this horse to get the triumph. ARTS-ROCKSTAR - The panel of smart guys has Leonard on its list of drivers who are winning with a flourish these days. Last 30 days win percentage is top notch. Superb driver Leonard should find the pace of today's contest to this mare's liking - could be a good bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 97 - Purse:$30000 - WINNERS OVER $25,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS HANDICAP POST POSITIONS 1-4 DRAWN POST POSITIONS 5-7 DRAWN


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 PASS THEM BY N 5/2


# 5 BIGTOWN HERO 4/1


# 4 LIFE UP FRONT 12/1


Feel pretty confident putting cash down on PASS THEM BY N. This race horse earned a very good speed fig in last race. Looks to be going well to come right back. This harness racer and Gregory have some sort of connection going. In the money stat for this duo is high. Outstanding in the money rate for Hudson and this solid standardbred. A very nice likelihood to get the trip to the winner's circle. BIGTOWN HERO - You have to get behind a horse that wins regularly, very impressive win percent. Take a look at this interesting entrant's average speed figure of 99 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a respectable wager. LIFE UP FRONT - Stratton and Abbatiello have a very good working relationship. Exemplary results from their races. Top driver-trainer duo, with one of the finest return on investment percents in this group of animals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7700 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 21. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 POLARIS 9/2


# 8 BURNAWAY 7/2


# 9 REVERE 10/1


POLARIS looks formidable to best this field. Earned a reliable speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. One of the best win percentages between this rider and trainer make this horse dangerous. The tandem of Colon/Sullivan has one of the top ROI percentages in this group. BURNAWAY - Is a solid contender - given the 74 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race. The average class fig alone makes this horse a contender. REVERE - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is strong for this horse.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $3000 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR QUARTER HORSES, THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE AQRA-TURF PARADISE OPEN QUARTER HORSE DERBY. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. LATE NOMINATIONS: $3,500 AT TIME OF ENTRY FOR TRIALS PLUS ALL BACK PAYMENTS


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 ALL RIGHT NOW 6/5


# 2 FLYING THRU FIRE 7/2


# 4 A RED HOT PATRIOT 6/1


ALL RIGHT NOW supports the wager in here. Boasts reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Fales running at this distance are the most competitive in this group. Looks strong versus this group of animals and will most likely be one of the leaders. FLYING THRU FIRE - Boasts reliable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. This racer enters today's race now going off Lasix. A RED HOT PATRIOT - Could beat this group given the 74 speed rating recorded in her last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #9 - Post: 4:44pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,400 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 PICK BY THE BOX (ML=9/2)
#9 INNER CITY (ML=12/1)
#1 ELUSIVE PLAINS (ML=7/2)


PICK BY THE BOX - I like that recent contest on October 24th at Golden Gate Fields where he ran second. Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +48. This jockey/trainer duo has done well together over the last twelve months. INNER CITY - This gelding is in superb form right now. Ran fourth last time out and comes back rapidly. Look for this one to go to the winner's circle at some pretty good odds in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the finish line. I think that the addition of blinkers today will keep his mind on the race at hand. ELUSIVE PLAINS - Taking a trip down in class; has the ability to make his presence felt. There's something to be said for a change of surface. Last race this animal didn't like the terrain, but if you look two back on the equitrack at Golden Gate Fields, there was a great effort. I look for that again today. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another confirmation that this animal outclasses this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 ONEMOREATWILSONS (ML=6/1), #3 OWNER'S CHOICE (ML=8/1), #4 OMDURMAN (ML=8/1),

ONEMOREATWILSONS - If today's contest shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a furious pace battle early. Too bad this animal is one of those front runners. OWNER'S CHOICE - Pace is so critical, and this speedball is going to have a speed duel on his hands. Don't think this runner will do much running in today's event. That last speed fig was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class rating. OMDURMAN - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this race compromises this equine's chances. I find it hard to bet on this runner today. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you play him in a race of 6 furlongs. When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a much better fig than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PICK BY THE BOX - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this gelding's last one.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #5 PICK BY THE BOX to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,5,9] with [1,5,9] with [1,3,5,9,11] with [1,3,5,9,11] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
[1,5,9] with [1,5,9] with [1,5,9,11] with [1,3,5,8,9,11] with [1,3,5,8,9,11] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #3 - Post: 2:25pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,000 Class Rating: 105

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 SKIP THE PINOT (ML=6/1)
#2 SIR GENGHIS (ML=5/1)


SKIP THE PINOT - Ran against 'open' company last out, in with state breds today. This horse has increased his speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is important to note. SIR GENGHIS - Comes out of a last race against 'open' company on September 10th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HEITAI (ML=6/5), #4 TOO DIM (ML=3/1),

HEITAI - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs of late. Doubtful to see him doing it this time around either. TOO DIM - The Brain always cautions me to stay away from thoroughbreds in sprint affairs that haven't finished in the money in short distance contests lately.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #3 SKIP THE PINOT to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip