| [h=1]NFL Gambling Preview: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons[/h] |
| 11/20/2015 11:10 AM Teddy Covers |
Submitted by Teddy Covers 
Indianapolis at Atlanta Sunday, 10 am PT CRIS Opener: Atlanta -6.5 O/U 46 CRIS Current: Atlanta -6 O/U 47 Recommendation: Atlanta The Colts and Falcons went into their respective bye weeks with a very different state of mind. Indy lost QB Andrew Luck, but they pulled an outright upset over the Broncos, keeping them in first place in the AFC South. Atlanta, on the other hand, lost back-to-back games to the Bucs and 49ers by a combined four points. Since their 4-0 SU and ATS start to the campaign, Dan Quinn’s squad is just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, a dramatically overvalued commodity in recent weeks. It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons were favored from between -3 to -8 in all five of those ATS losses; the exact same price range that we find Atlanta in again this week. In fact, Atlanta’s only two wins by more than six points this year came back in Weeks 3 & 4, when they beat the Cowboys with Brandon Weeden and the Texans in Ryan Mallett’s last game as the starter. Quinn is very familiar with 40 year old Colts backup QB Matt Hasselbeck – the duo spent two years in Seattle together in 2009 and 2010. Quinn’s quote: “I think the thing that jumps out is the guy’s football smarts. He’s got an ability to anticipate really well—knows what’s coming, knows where to put it. The fact that he’s doing it as long as he has speaks to the competitor in him, as well.” Local reports indicate that the Colts are planning to ‘take the reins off’ Frank Gore this week, utilizing a relatively rare (for Indy) run-first gameplan on Sunday. The Falcons run defense has been their strength all year, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry; among the top five teams in the league in that key statistical category. Indy’s struggling offensive line hasn’t exactly been blowing holes open for their backs – Indy is below the league average, gaining only 4.0 yards per rush. And Quinn’s defensive mindset is primed to pay dividends following the bye week; prime time for a first year head coach to clean things up. The Falcons haven’t been losing games because of their defense – it’s Matt Ryan and the offense that has come up short. During their four game winning streak to open the season, the Falcons hung at least 24 on their opponent in every game. During their current five game ATS losing streak, they haven’t scored more than 21 points in regulation. Ryan’s quotes sound pretty confident that they can turn things around against the Colts suspect defense: “(We) just need to get back to executing in the way we are capable of. I think areas that we need to improve are third downs and red zone. In order to be better in those situations, to me it comes down to making the plays when you have the opportunity.” The Falcons have worked extensively on their no-huddle, uptempo offense in practice this week; bad news for a Colts defense short on both depth and talent. I don’t believe this is a good matchup for Hasselbeck, and under no circumstances am I willing to accept that there’s no drop-off for the Colts when their stud QB is forced to sit, replaced by a 40 year old with wins over the Jags and Texans on his resume. I don’t think this is a good matchup for Indy’s defense either, and the markets have certainly cooled on Atlanta since their hot start. Laying less than a TD with the Falcons is the only way I can look here. |
[h=4]NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears[/h]11.18.2015
Submitted by Alex Smith
Denver at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener: Chicago pk O/U 43
CRIS Current: Chicago -1 O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Chicago
The Denver Broncos (7-2) head to the Windy City on Sunday to take on the surging Chicago Bears (4-5). The Broncos suffered their second straight defeat last week in a 29-13 loss the Kansas City Chiefs. The big story in that contest was Peyton Manning surpassing Brett Favre as the NFL's all-time passing yardage leader, only to throw four interceptions on 20 attempts and get benched in favor of Brock Osweiler. Osweiler threw for two touchdowns well after the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs held Denver's run game in check as well, yielding just 69 yards on the ground on 16 total carries.
Chicago won for the second straight weekend with a 37-13 blowout of the St. Louis Rams. Running back Jeremy Langford was the star of this contest has he picked up 73 yards rushing and 109 yards receiving along with a pair of touchdowns. Tight end Zach Miller also picked up two touchdowns and 107 yards receiving on just five catches; his longest, an 80-yard score on the Bears’ first offensive possession.
The two biggest storylines within this game is Osweiler being named the starter and Chicago's head coach John Fox facing his former team. Fox led the Broncos to a 46-18 record during the regular season, including four AFC West title and one AFC Championship.
The Broncos are going to have to rely on their defense even more than they already have in order to win this game. Denver's front seven has been one of the best in the NFL, recording a league-best 32 sacks and holding rushers to an average of 86 yards per game. They will have their hands full stopping an offense that has found some new life thanks to the aforementioned duo of Langford and Miller as well as Jay Cutler who has quietly performed above average and more importantly limited his turnovers. Chicago's defense has also been solid as of late by holding clubs to 22 ppg. The return of LB Shea McClellan and veteran CB Tracy Porter has clearly had a positive impact.
This will be a big test for the 24-year old Osweiler who has spent much of his limited playing time in the casual atmosphere of blowouts. I expect Chicago's defense to pressure him early and often and make enough plays on offense to come away with the victory.
Submitted by Alex Smith
Denver at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT
CRIS Opener: Chicago pk O/U 43
CRIS Current: Chicago -1 O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Chicago
The Denver Broncos (7-2) head to the Windy City on Sunday to take on the surging Chicago Bears (4-5). The Broncos suffered their second straight defeat last week in a 29-13 loss the Kansas City Chiefs. The big story in that contest was Peyton Manning surpassing Brett Favre as the NFL's all-time passing yardage leader, only to throw four interceptions on 20 attempts and get benched in favor of Brock Osweiler. Osweiler threw for two touchdowns well after the game was out of reach in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs held Denver's run game in check as well, yielding just 69 yards on the ground on 16 total carries.
Chicago won for the second straight weekend with a 37-13 blowout of the St. Louis Rams. Running back Jeremy Langford was the star of this contest has he picked up 73 yards rushing and 109 yards receiving along with a pair of touchdowns. Tight end Zach Miller also picked up two touchdowns and 107 yards receiving on just five catches; his longest, an 80-yard score on the Bears’ first offensive possession.
The two biggest storylines within this game is Osweiler being named the starter and Chicago's head coach John Fox facing his former team. Fox led the Broncos to a 46-18 record during the regular season, including four AFC West title and one AFC Championship.
The Broncos are going to have to rely on their defense even more than they already have in order to win this game. Denver's front seven has been one of the best in the NFL, recording a league-best 32 sacks and holding rushers to an average of 86 yards per game. They will have their hands full stopping an offense that has found some new life thanks to the aforementioned duo of Langford and Miller as well as Jay Cutler who has quietly performed above average and more importantly limited his turnovers. Chicago's defense has also been solid as of late by holding clubs to 22 ppg. The return of LB Shea McClellan and veteran CB Tracy Porter has clearly had a positive impact.
This will be a big test for the 24-year old Osweiler who has spent much of his limited playing time in the casual atmosphere of blowouts. I expect Chicago's defense to pressure him early and often and make enough plays on offense to come away with the victory.
