Saturday 11/21/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- San Jose won its last four games, allowing seven goals. Penguins won four of last five at home.
-- Colorado won three of its last four games.
-- Rangers won nine of their last ten games.
-- Maple Leafs won five of their last six games.
-- Coyotes won five of their last six games.
-- Dallas Stars won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Blackhawks won three of last four games.

Cold teams
-- Ducks lost four of their last five games. Tampa Bay lost nine of last 13.
-- Washington lost three of its last five games.
-- Flyers lost ten of their last twelve games. Ottawa lost four of its last six.
-- Florida lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Boston love five of its last eight games.
-- Winnipeg lost six of its last seven games.
-- Sabres lost their last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Predators lost three of their last four road games. Minnesota lost its last three overall.
-- Red Wings lost four of their last seven games. St Louis lost three of its last five.
-- Vancouver lost seven of its last eight games.

Series records
-- Ducks lost four of last five games with Tampa Bay.
-- Sharks won five of last seven games with Pittsburgh.
-- Avalanche won three of last four visits to Washington.
-- Flyers lost three of last four games with Ottawa.
-- Rangers won their last six games with Florida.
-- Bruins lost four of last six games with Toronto.
-- Coyotes lost six of last seven games with Winnipeg.
-- Dallas Stars won four of last five games with Buffalo.
-- Road team won last seven Nashville-Minnesota games.
-- Red Wings won their last three games with St Louis.
-- Canucks-Blues split their last ten games (Van 3-2 last five at home).

Totals
-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Tampa Bay games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten San Jose games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.
-- Six of last eight Ottawa games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-0-2 in last six Ranger road games.
-- Eight of ten Boston home games went over.
-- Last three Winnipeg home games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Dallas Stars games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Minnesota games.
-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Detroit games.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Chicago games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Hockey Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews

I can honestly say I didn't expect to type this sentence at all for the 2015-16 NHL season: the Dallas Stars are your Stanley Cup betting favorites.

Anaheim at Tampa Bay, Saturday: Many national publications had this as the Stanley Cup Finals matchup this season. Right now, neither the Ducks nor Lightning would even make the playoffs. The Bolts have been outscored by three goals this season as guys like Tyler Johnson (who currently out with an upper-body injury), Ondrej Palat (out 2-4 weeks with an ankle problem) and Valtteri Filppula have struggled, among others. Anaheim has been fine defensively, leading the NHL in penalty-kill percentage and allowing the fewest power-play goals. The Ducks aren't scoring themselves with only 33 goals, tied with Philadelphia for the fewest in the league. Star Ryan Getzlaf scored an empty-net goal Monday; it was his first goal of the season in his 14th game.

Injury Report

Montreal goaltender Carey Price hasn't played since Oct. 29 due to a lower-body injury and it's not likely he will this week, either. He did take some shots at practice on Monday for the first time since the injury. Backup Mike Condon started off really well in Price's spot but has been shaky in his past three outings.

Islanders winger Mikhail Grabovski left Monday's victory over the Arizona Coyotes after suffering an upper-body injury and did not return. He has registered three goals, five assists and is a plus-5 through 19 games.

Minnesota star Zach Parise hasn't played since Nov. 5 because of an MCL injury but has resumed skating. There still remains no timetable for his return and it won't be until the weekend at the earliest. In 12 games this season, Parise has seven goals and two assists.

Philadelphia's top defenseman, Mark Streit, was to have surgery on Tuesday to repair a pubic plate detachment -- it hurts me just typing that -- and will miss six weeks. Streit has three goals and six assists while playing more than 22 minutes per night.

Columbus center Brandon Dubinsky will miss 2-3 weeks with an elbow injury. In 16 games this season, Dubinsky is second on the team in scoring with 11 points (four goals, seven assists). He leads the team's forwards in average ice time (18:46). Very little has gone right for the disappointing Blue Jackets this season. Nick Foligno will center the second line between Matt Calvert and Cam Atkinson in Dubinsky's spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kings (4-9) at Magic (6-6)

Date: November 21, 2015 5:00 PM EDT

Even when the Orlando Magic aren't playing well offensively, their play on the other end is giving them a chance to win.

They'll aim for a seventh victory in 10 games Saturday night against the visiting Sacramento Kings.

The Magic (6-6) won 104-101 in overtime against Minnesota on Wednesday despite shooting 37.3 percent. They held the Timberwolves to 41 second-half points to force the extra period after trailing by 14 at halftime.

They've shot 39.1 percent or worse in three victories but hold opponents to 42.3 to rank among the league leaders.

Evan Fournier put Orlando ahead with a 3-pointer with 3.1 seconds left in overtime and was 5 of 7 from beyond the arc with 26 points. Fournier is averaging 19.4 points compared to 12.0 in 2014-15, the seventh-largest increase in the NBA this season.

Elfrid Payton added 24 points and six rebounds while fellow starters Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic struggled. Oladipo was 0 for 6 with one point in 20 minutes after missing two games with a concussion, and Vucevic had eight points on 4-for-13 shooting.

Oladipo played seven minutes after halftime while Vucevic didn't see the floor at all over the final 29 minutes.

"I'm not trying to send messages," coach Scott Skiles said. "I mean, I get a fairly sizable check every two weeks to win games. That's what I'm trying to do. I felt like we got some good energy out of (backups)."

Orlando's bench also struggled, though, going 12 of 36 from the floor.

The Kings (4-9) showed improvement with a three-game winning streak but have since dropped back-to-back games at Atlanta and Miami.

DeMarcus Cousins will be back after serving a one-game suspension in Thursday's 116-109 loss to the Heat after his forearm shot to the head of Atlanta's Al Horford in Wednesday's defeat.

Sacramento fell to 0-5 without its All-Star big man, who is averaging 27.5 points and 11.1 rebounds. Rudy Gay also didn't return after suffering a shoulder injury on a drive to the basket in the third quarter, though he's expected to play.

"Our two superstars were out but guys stepped up when needed," Rajon Rondo said. "We were able to make a run at it but we weren't able to continue to get enough stops."

Rondo had 18 assists, 14 points and nine rebounds, narrowly missing a fifth triple-double in seven games.

"He's playing like Rondo," Miami's Dwyane Wade said. "As a fan of the game, I'm just happy to see him healthy and when he's healthy he's one of the top point guards in this league. He's back to proving that."

The Kings continue this five-game trip having gone 0-4 on the road after not taking much advantage of an early home-heavy schedule.

Orlando shot 53.6 percent while winning both of last season's meetings. Oladipo played one of his best games as a pro in a 119-114 victory March 6, scoring 32 on 14-of-24 shooting with 10 assists.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bucks (5-7) at Pacers (7-5)

Date: November 21, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

The Milwaukee Bucks are fouling way too frequently and now face a re-emerging star who likes getting to the free-throw line.

Paul George looks to extend an impressive scoring streak and keep the Indiana Pacers' resurgence on track in a matchup with the foul-prone Bucks, who want to avoid going winless on a three-game road trip.

These Central Division foes kick off their season series going in opposite directions. While Milwaukee (5-7) has followed a four-game win streak by losing four of five, Indiana (7-5) has put aside an 0-3 start by winning seven of nine as George has rediscovered his All-NBA form.

George has at least 26 points in eight consecutive games, the second-longest streak in franchise history behind Billy Knight's run of 10 games in 1977.

"His work ethic is second to none," coach Frank Vogel said. "His focus is great. He's moving really well. Hard work breeds confidence and he's playing at a high level right now."

Just as he did during a 2013-14 breakout season when he ranked 10th in free-throw attempts, George is consistently getting to the charity stripe. He's among the league leaders with 84 attempts and has hit 84.5 percent of them.

Milwaukee is committing a league-high 23.7 fouls per game and fell to 0-4 when whistled for more than 25 after Thursday's 115-100 defeat to Cleveland.

"I don't know the stat, but we probably lead the league in fouls," coach Jason Kidd said. "So we've been consistent with that. We've gotta figure out a way to stop doing that if we wanna have a chance to beat anybody."

His team also has a lot to figure out defensively, having allowed 115 points on both games of this trip and a combined 54.6 percent shooting. The Bucks are 0-6 when yielding more than 100 points in regulation.

Indiana has surpassed 100 in three of four as C.J. Miles has stepped up to average 16.0 points, though George remains the focal point offensively. He scored 34 in Wednesday's 112-85 rout of Philadelphia and made five 3-pointers. George is 28 of 55 (50.9 percent) from beyond the arc during his eight-game hot streak.

"I'm definitely playing with confidence right now," he said. "Again, I've been preparing and getting ready. I've been shooting a lot of shots. I know what shots are starting to come my way now."

Milwaukee hopes Jabari Parker can follow a similar path. The No. 2 pick in 2014 missed the final 57 games last season and first four this fall due to a torn ACL, then sat out Tuesday's loss at Washington with a sprained foot. He returned Wednesday to play nearly 31 minutes, scoring 14 points.

Parker, though, grabbed only three rebounds as Milwaukee finished with a franchise record-low 22. The Bucks are averaging a league-low 37.3 and have been outrebounded in all but one game despite the offseason addition of Greg Monroe, who averages a team-high 9.6 boards.

"Everybody gotta get in (for rebounds), but I take accountability," Parker said. "I gotta rebound."

The Bucks also might need 6-foot-11 Giannis Antetokounmpo to help more on the glass, though he did score a career-high 33 points Thursday and is averaging a team-best 18.4.

Antetokounmpo shot 6 of 22 in Milwaukee's two losses to the Pacers last season, compared to 11 of 17 in two wins. Each team won once on the road and at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hawks (9-5) at Cavaliers (9-3)

Date: November 21, 2015 7:30 PM EDT

LeBron James' brilliance was on full display when the Cleveland Cavaliers swept the Atlanta Hawks in last season's Eastern Conference finals in a matchup of clubs at less than full strength.

These teams are meeting for the first time since that series and both are short-handed again.

Cleveland won't have three starters available and Atlanta is expected to play without star guard Jeff Teague in Saturday night's contest at Quicken Loans Arena.

James averaged 30.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 9.3 assists in last season's playoff series against Atlanta. It was a virtuoso performance for James, whose team was forced to play without Kevin Love while Kyrie Irving missed two games.

The Hawks (9-5) were without Thabo Sefolosha while Kyle Korver sat out the final two games with a high ankle sprain after Matthew Dellavedova fell on his leg in Game 2. In addition, DeMarre Carroll averaged 7.0 points on 32.4 percent shooting after injuring his knee in the opener.

Cleveland (9-3) has played the entire season without Irving and now will make do Saturday without two more starters in center Timofey Mozgov and guard Mo Williams. Mozgov could miss the next two weeks with a strained shoulder while Williams will miss his second straight with a sore right ankle.

Dellavedova made his first start in Thursday's 115-100 home win over Milwaukee, finishing with seven points and a career-high 13 assists. Mozgov was injured in that contest, meaning Tristan Thompson or Anderson Varejao will move into Saturday's lineup.

"One thing you can't control is injuries but one thing you can control is how you play with the guys who are out there," James said.

Atlanta has played the last three games without Teague, who averages 17.1 points and 6.5 assists and is out with a sprained left ankle. Dennis Schroder is averaging 13.7 points and 8.3 assists starting in his place.

The Hawks ended a three-game slide with Wednesday's 103-97 home win over Sacramento. Paul Millsap had 23 points and a season-high 16 rebounds for his sixth double-double.

"We've got a group that's very prideful," coach Mike Budenholzer said. "We've had a poor week for us so I think at some point they take it upon themselves, it's a credit to them."

Schroder had a season-high 22 points and six assists. Al Horford scored 17 and grabbed one rebound - his fewest since he had none Nov. 18, 2008, when he left after six minutes with an ankle sprain.

The Cavaliers have won 26 of their last 27 regular-season home games, including all six this season after James scored 27 and Love had 22 and 15 rebounds against the Bucks.

'This is how we need to play,' James said. 'There's no ifs ands or buts. I think we answered the call on what we talked about. We're just trying to get better.'

J.R. Smith, who averaged 18.0 points on 50.0 percent shooting in the series against the Hawks, scored a season-high 18.

Atlanta captured three of four from Cleveland in the 2014-15 regular season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wizards (5-4) at Pistons (7-5)

Date: November 21, 2015 7:30 PM EDT

Improved shooting from long range and a new defensive scheme have the Washington Wizards nearly reversing a three-game slide.

Getting their top scorer back improves their chances at completing the job.

With Bradley Beal potentially in the lineup for the first time in four games, the visiting Wizards go for a third straight win Saturday night against the Detroit Pistons.

Washington (5-4) surrendered an average of 119.0 points while shooting 28.8 percent from beyond the arc in losses to Boston, Atlanta and Oklahoma City.

Coach Randy Wittman simplified the defense, and the Wizards responded with a 108-99 win over Orlando last Saturday before beating Milwaukee 115-86 on Tuesday.

"It's team defense. We're going to make mistakes, it's just covering for each other," said forward Otto Porter, who scored 19 points against the Bucks.

Washington has also been terrific from 3-point range over the last two games, connecting on 24 of 51 attempts.

Beal's return from a sore left shoulder should keep the Wizards hitting consistently from beyond the arc. The guard is shooting 41.7 from long range while averaging 22.7 points.

Wittman, though, isn't making any assurances that the guard will be back Saturday.

"If a guy's hurt, you've got to make sure he's ready before he comes back," Wittman said.

The Wizards have won four of the last six meetings with Detroit (7-5), and John Wall is averaging 23.1 points while shooting 47.5 percent from the field over his last seven matchups.

Like Washington, the Pistons are trying to continue turning things around. They lost four games in a row before beating Cleveland 104-99 on Tuesday and following up with a 96-86 victory at Minnesota on Friday.

Andre Drummond had 21 points and 11 boards, overcoming a slow start attributed to the lingering effects of an upper respiratory infection that kept him from practicing the previous day.

"I thought he started real slow,' coach Stan Van Gundy said. 'But he found it somewhere and in the second half he was really good.

"We did a little better job of getting him the ball in deep. And when he gets the ball in there, he's pretty good."

Drummond backs up his coach's claim by leading the NBA with 18.3 rebounds per game while adding 19.3 points. The center has a double-double in each of the first 12 games, giving him the longest streak by a Piston to start a season since 1985-86. It's also the longest such streak in the NBA since Chris Paul went 13 games to start 2013-14.

Drummond has averaged 14.3 points and 13.5 rebounds over four home meetings with Washington. He had 18 and 16 in the most recent with Detroit winning 106-89 on Feb. 22.

Reggie Jackson scored 17 points in that matchup, but he had just nine with seven assists in a 99-95 loss in the nation's capital six days later.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: 76ers (0-13) at Heat (7-4)

Date: November 21, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

While Dwyane Wade finally broke out offensively this week, he might soon be passing the baton back to Miami's big boys.

An experienced Heat frontcourt welcomes in the young and raw post players from winless Philadelphia Saturday night as Miami looks to keep rolling through a lengthy homestand and right over the already flat 76ers.

Wade had averaged 10.8 points on 32.7 percent shooting in his previous four games but scored 24 in Thursday's 116-109 victory over Sacramento, Miami's fourth in five tries to open a seven-game homestand.

The Heat (7-4) caught a break with Kings star DeMarcus Cousins serving a one-game suspension on Thursday, and Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside will welcome their second straight favorable matchup inside against the 76ers' young frontline of rookie Jahlil Okafor, second-year youngsters Nerlens Noel and Jerami Grant and third-year player Robert Covington.

"Our advantage is our size," Bosh said. "We kind of have to swallow teams up a little bit."

Philadelphia ranks toward the bottom of the league with 43.7 points in the paint and 15.6 second-chance points allowed per game. The 76ers were torched by Charlotte center Al Jefferson for 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting during a 113-88 loss on Friday.

Bosh could be in line for similar production. The 13-year veteran has been solid during his sixth season with Miami, averaging 18.5 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 46.7 percent from the floor and 37.5 from 3-point range.

Bosh has averaged 25.7 points while making 58.3 percent of his shots in his last three games against Philadelphia.

His only down game over the last two weeks was a 10-point performance in Tuesday's loss to Minnesota. The Timberwolves outscored Miami 41-22 in the final quarter to rally for a 103-91 win.

Bosh regrouped with 23 points and 11 rebounds against the Kings, while Whiteside added 12 points, five boards and four blocks. Even Amar'e Stoudemire had 10 points after not playing in the previous eight games due to soreness in his knees.

Sacramento did hold an 11-9 edge in fast break points.

"I'm glad that we kind of had a little bit of slippage last night with the Kings as far as our transition defense because these young guys are going to run," Bosh said. "They're winless, but they play extremely hard. That doesn't really reflect their effort.

Philadelphia (0-13) has lost 23 straight, including 11 consecutive road games. The 76ers are 2-32 in their last 34 away from home and are closing in on their franchise-worst 0-17 start from a year ago and a league-worst 0-18 start set by the 2009-10 New Jersey Nets.

Noel led the 76ers with 16 points off the bench against the Hornets on 7-of-9 shooting, but he couldn't keep them from moving within three games of tying the NBA record of 26 straight losses. Last season Philadelphia matched the mark set by Cleveland in 2010-11.

'We preach and we talk about it (morale) all the time,' said coach Brett Brown, whose team opened a six-game road trip at Charlotte. 'They give us their attitude and their effort; I am with them unconditionally. They bust their tails. They are 20-year-old kids and I love coaching them. I respect them and we believe the good days will add up.'

Miami has won 19 of 22 against Philadelphia but the three losses have come in the last seven meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Knicks (7-6) at Rockets (5-8)

Date: November 21, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

It's been 11 years since the New York Knicks won at Houston. They may be catching the sputtering Rockets at an opportune time to prevent that streak from continuing.

The Knicks look to win their fourth straight Saturday night and end an 11-game overall slide against Houston.

New York (7-6) has lost 19 of its last 20 meetings with the Rockets (5-8), including all 10 at Houston by an average of 12.0 points since last winning there on Nov. 18, 2004.

The Knicks enter this visit with a season-best three-game win streak, limiting opponents to an average of 90.3 points on 42.0 percent shooting - 14 of 70 from 3-point range - during that run.

The Rockets are in a major lull that cost coach Kevin McHale his job earlier this week after he guided them to the Western Conference finals last season. They've dropped five of the last six games, falling 96-84 at Memphis on Friday in their lowest scoring effort of the season.

'I think we were just struggling to find our shots,' said interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who is 1-1 since replacing McHale. 'We missed 15 shots in the paint, missed 15 free throws and turned the ball over 23 times.'

Friday marked another poor shooting performance by Houston, which shot 37.8 percent - including 6 of 29 from beyond the arc - and made only two baskets in a 14-point fourth quarter.

The Rockets rank near the bottom of the league with a 41.3 field-goal percentage.

'We have got to find a way to get baskets, especially with a team like that,' said guard Jason Terry, who scored two points on 1-of 5 shooting.

James Harden is among the league leaders with 28.2 points per game, but he's making just 25.6 percent of his 3s after hitting 37.5 last season. The All-Star guard missed 6 of 7 attempts from long range but still finished with 22 points against the Grizzlies.

Harden, though, is averaging 31.3 points while connecting on 51.7 percent from the field - 49.0 from deep - over his last seven meetings with the Knicks.

He won't have Dwight Howard's inside presence Saturday as Houston plans on resting the team's second-leading scorer with games on consecutive days. The Rockets have lost three of four without him this season.

"That's the plan for now," Bickerstaff said.

New York opened a four-game road trip with Friday's 93-90 victory over Oklahoma City, holding on after nearly blowing a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter. Carmelo Anthony scored 25 points for the Knicks, who limited the Thunder to season lows of 38.0 percent from the floor and 3 for 29 from 3-point range.

"Just reminding the guys that the end result is just figuring out a way to win, regardless of how it looks," coach Derek Fisher said. "We will keep working at cleaning things up and trying to finish it better."

Anthony could be poised for a big game, having averaged 32.7 points over his last 10 against the Rockets.

New York extended its win streak Friday with a limited contribution from rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who had seven points and six rebounds after he had 29 and 11 in a 102-94 victory over Charlotte on Tuesday.

The Knicks already have seven wins, a total they didn't reach last season until Jan. 21.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Grizzlies (7-6) at Spurs (9-3)

Date: November 21, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

Maybe it's the acquisition of Mario Chalmers that's made the difference. Maybe it's improved play from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.

Whatever it is, the Memphis Grizzlies suddenly are rolling, and their latest victory even came with Zach Randolph sitting out.

The San Antonio Spurs, meanwhile, are coming off their worst performance of the season, and they might be without LaMarcus Aldridge as they try to prevent the visiting Grizzlies from winning a fifth straight game.

Memphis (7-6) has won all four since acquiring Chalmers, who is averaging 16.5 points since Miami sent him away Nov. 10.

He had 10 off the bench in Friday's 96-84 win over Houston, but it was Conley and Gasol who stepped up the most the Randolph a late scratch because of knee soreness.

Conley finished with 26 points and Gasol recorded the first triple-double of his career - and the first for Memphis since his brother, Pau, had one in 2007 - with 16 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.

Conley is averaging 22.7 points and shooting 56.8 percent - including 11 for 17 from 3-point range - over his last three after scoring 15 while shooting 5 of 25 from the field over his previous two. Gasol averaged 13.3 points and shot 41.1 percent over his first eight, but is averaging 21.2 and shooting 54.3 percent over his last five.

'The spacing was fantastic,' Conley said. 'We were able to move the ball, get a lot of easy opportunities. When we're getting a lot of easy opportunities, either in transition or in the flow early in our shot clock, we're a much different team.'

The Grizzlies also looked different without Randolph, who missed his first game of the season. It's unclear if he'll play against the Spurs (9-3), who could be facing a bigger problem is Aldridge can't go.

Aldridge finished with 20 points and 11 rebounds Friday against New Orleans, and he said he's not sure if he'll be able to play against Memphis after spraining his left ankle. That would create a big hole down low after Tim Duncan didn't have a rebound for the first time in his career during a 104-90 loss.

"I tried to play through it," Aldridge said. "I was a little bit of a liability on the defensive side. I couldn't move laterally, but I tried to get there.

"(It's) pretty tight right now, but we'll re-evaluate it in the morning and see how it feels."

The Spurs had their six-game winning streak snapped, and coach Gregg Popovich wasn't shy about pointing out how poorly his team played. San Antonio shot just 40.5 percent and had trouble guarding the perimeter all night.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points, but Tony Parker finished with 10 and Duncan had only six. Manu Ginobili sat out his second straight with tightness in his hip, though he's expected to play against Memphis.

'We were awful,' Popovich said. 'We didn't stay in front of people very well. If you allow that much penetration, it throws everybody off kilter when everybody is helping and guys are open for 3s.'

The Spurs have won nine of the last 11 meetings with the Grizzlies, including the postseason. Leonard scored 25 points and grabbed 10 rebounds while Parker added 17 in a 103-89 victory in the most recent matchup March 29.

Randolph had 20 points and 13 boards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Saturday, November 21 2015 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be holding their breath on Friday as center Timofey Mozgov, who is probably the most important defensive player on the team as an excellent rim protector, is undergoing an MRI on his shoulder. He hurt his right shoulder Thursday in the first half and didn't return after playing only 11 minutes. Mozgov is still rounding himself into shape from offseason knee surgery. He came into Thursday's game averaging 8.5 points on 51.6 percent shooting and 5.0 rebounds. Tristan Thompson started the second half in his place. If Mozgov misses significant time, the Cavs would have to dust off Anderson Varejao, who barely plays these days.

Kings at Magic (TBA)

Sacramento has started a five-game road trip with back-to-back losses. Star center DeMarcus Cousins was suspended mid-day Thursday before the Kings' game against the Heat for delivering a forearm to the head of Atlanta's Al Horford on Wednesday. I didn't even mention it in this space because it really didn't look like much. But Cousins has a history of on-court issues so that likely played a role in his one-game ban. Predictably, the Kings lost 116-109 to the Heat. They are 0-5 this season without Cousins and 6-33 over the past three seasons when he's out. He will be back Friday, but second-leading scorer Rudy Gay might not be as left the Heat game with a shoulder injury (why TBA). Orlando beat the Timberwolves in overtime on Wednesday for its third win in four games. Victor Oladipo returned after missing two games with a concussion but really struggled in the first half and barely played in the second. Coach Scott Skiles also benched a struggling Nik Vucevic for all the second half. Orlando won both meetings with Minnesota last season, including 119-114 at home when it shot a whopping .565 from the field.

Key trends: The Magic are 7-2 against the spread in their past nine after a win. The "over/under" is 5-1 in the Kings' past six road games. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Magic win whether Gay plays or not.

Bucks at Pacers (-4, 195.5)

Milwaukee lost 115-100 in Cleveland on Thursday despite the surprise return of Jabari Parker, who wasn't expected to play and didn't even join the team for its loss in Washington on Tuesday. Parker had 14 points. O.J. Mayo also made his season debut off a strained right hamstring. What was most unusual about that game? It was on TNT and it was the Bucks' first regular-season appearance on the network in 13 years. That's crazy. Indiana won easily 112-85 in Philly on Wednesday without guards George Hill and Rodney Stuckey. Hill missed his second straight game while Stuckey sat out his fourth in a row. Hill was close to playing so I'd expect at least him here. First meeting of the season between the Central Division rivals. They split last year, all four close and each team going 1-1 at home. The Pacers have won seven of the past eight in Indianapolis in the series.

Key trends: The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 5-2 in those seven.

Early lean: Bucks and over.

Hawks at Cavaliers (TBA)

Cleveland ended a two-game losing streak with that 15-point win over the Bucks on Thursday. LeBron James scored 27 points, and Kevin Love added 22 points and 15 rebounds. As I mentioned above, the Cavs lost Mozgov in that game and point guard Mo Williams didn't play at all with a sore right leg. He's questionable for this game. If he sits, Matthew Dellavedova would start and might have to play a ton with Kyrie Irving still sidelined. Atlanta ended a three-game skid with a 103-97 win over the visiting Kings on Wednesday. Paul Millsap scored 23 points and had 16 rebounds. The Hawks again played without starters Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore, both dealing with sprained ankles. Teague looks close to returning but not Bazemore. Cleveland won the first meeting last year 127-94 but then dropped the next three by at least eight points. Of course then the Cavaliers swept Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Key trends: The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 5-0 in the past five in Cleveland.

Early lean: Cavs win easily regardless of who plays among the injured listed above.

Wizards at Pistons (TBA)

Detroit was in Minnesota on Friday. Washington won a second straight on Tuesday, 115-86 over Milwaukee. John Wall had 19 points, nine assists and six rebounds as the Wiz had their first double-digit win of the year. Washington guard Bradley Beal missed his third straight game with a sore left shoulder. He practiced in full Friday so it's looking good for him in this one. Garrett Temple has started the past two for Beal. The Wizards were 2-1 against Detroit last year. Wall averaged 19.7 points and 9.7 assists. The Pistons have won four their past five at home in the series.

Key trends: The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 9-3 in Detroit's past 12 in the second of a back-to-back.

Early lean: If Beal plays, take the Wiz.

76ers at Heat (-14.5, 193.5)

Philly was in Charlotte on Friday looking to avoid a 0-13 start. Miami beat the visiting Kings 116-109 on Thursday, catching a break in not having to face Cousins. Dwyane Wade broke out of a mini-slump with 24 points on a season-high 23 shots. Through nine games, Wade is shooting a career-low 42.6 percent and the 17.1 points he's averaging are the fewest since his rookie year. The Heat improved to 4-1 on a season-long seven-game homestand. Last season, Miami won the season-series 3-1 and has won 19 of the last 22 overall against Philadelphia

Key trends: The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six. Philly has covered four of its past six in Miami.

Early lean: Too many points to give. Go under.

Knicks at Rockets (-7, 205)

Houston was in Memphis on Friday and New York in Oklahoma City. It's not clear if Houston center Dwight Howard will play both ends of a back-to-back. The Rockets have won 11 straight in this series, the longest winning streak by either franchise against the other. During the streak, the Rockets are outscoring Knicks 108.0 ppg to 96.7 ppg. Houston has won 10 straight at home against the Knicks dating to 2004.

Key trends: The Knicks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven in the second of a back-to-back. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their past five at home. The under is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Houston.

Early lean: Like Knicks to cover, especially if no Howard. Go over.

Grizzlies at Spurs (-7.5, 192)

Memphis hosted Houston on Friday, while San Antonio was in New Orleans without Manu Ginobili due to hip tightness. He might return here, but knowing the Spurs they would rather play it safe. These teams split four games last year. In the first meeting, San Antonio snapped a Memphis 22-game regular-season home-winning streak with a 107-101 victory at FedExForum.

Key trends: The Spurs are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings at home. The over is 9-3 in the past 12 overall.

Early lean: Spurs and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Magic won five of last seven games (0-2HF).
-- Pacers won seven of their last nine games (1-2HF).
-- Cavaliers are 6-0 at home, 3-3 as home favorites.
-- Wizards won last two games, by 10-29 points (0-2AU). Detroit won its last two games, by 5-10 (0-2HF).
-- Miami won four of its last five games (0-3 last three HF).
-- Knicks won last three games, covered last six (5-1AU).
-- Grizzlies won their last four games (1-2AU). Spurs won six of their last seven games (3-2HF).

Cold teams
-- Kings lost all four road games (2-2AU).
-- Milwaukee lost four of its last five games (3-3AU).
-- Hawks lost three of their last four games (1-0AU).
-- 76ers are 0-13, 3-3 as road underdogs.
-- Rockets lost five of their last six games (0-6HF).

Series records
-- Kings won five of last six games with Orlando.
-- Bucks lost eight of last ten games with Indiana.
-- Cavaliers swept Atlanta 4-0 in LY's playoffs (3-1 vs spread).
-- Wizards won four of last six games with Detroit.
-- Heat won three of last four games with Philly (2-1-1 vs spread).
-- Knicks lost last ten games with Houston (2-8 vs spread).
-- Spurs won eight of last ten games with Memphis.

Totals
-- Last three Orlando games went over total.
-- Last four Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under; six of Cavaliers' last seven games went over
-- Six of last eight Washington games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Miami games stayed under.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in New York's last ten games.
-- Three of last four Memphis games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Which spot bets are the wiseguys looking to wager this week?
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Lookahead spot

It’s been a while since the Apple Cup meant something. The annual battle between Washington and Washington State has been one-sided in recent years, with the Huskies knocking off the rival Cougars by a combined score of 58-30 the last two seasons. However, 2015 is lining up much differently with WSU playing its best football in years and Washington trailing it in the Pac-12 standings.

The Huskies are just 4-6 on the season and only 2-5 in conference play, needing two wins in the final two games to become bowl eligible. But Washington can salvage some of this lost season with a win over Wazzou in the finale. Before that, WU is giving 15 points to host Oregon State this weekend – a lot of points considering the massive lookahead spot in front of the 2-6 Huskies. The Beavers have covered in eight of their past 11 meetings with Washington.

Schedule spot

The non-conference college basketball schedule can keep teams on the road for a while and take them far, far away from campus. East Carolina crosses the map for a week-long Western road trip, starting in Berkley Friday night versus No. 14 Cal, then heading to San Diego State to play the Aztecs Sunday.

Then ECU’s trip heads to the desert – but the fun kind of desert – when the Pirates hit Las Vegas for the Las Vegas Invitational, where they play Arkansas State on the Thanksgiving Thursday and Bethune-Cookman or Stetson the next day. That’s four games in eight days with a lot of travel and time-zone difference to boot. Oh, and of course, the distractions of Sin City in those final two games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Monarchs (3-0) at Boilermakers (3-0)

Date: November 21, 2015 12:00 PM EDT

With 7-footer A.J. Hammons finally on the floor, Purdue and its imposing frontline embark on their first true test of the season.

The No. 21 Boilermakers look to continue their early success Saturday against undefeated Old Dominion in the semifinals of the Hall of Fame Tipoff at Uncasville, Connecticut.

Purdue (3-0) had little trouble rolling past North Carolina A&T, Vermont and Incarnate Word by an average of 34.7 points. The first two games came with Hammons, the team's top returning scorer and rebounder, out for reasons coach Matt Painter wouldn't divulge. The senior returned Wednesday to record eight points, six rebounds and three blocks in 15 minutes off the bench in the 96-61 rout of Incarnate Word.

'Hopefully A.J. can learn from this and continue to take care of his business,' Painter said. "Hopefully we can move forward and he can be better because of it."

Hammons is expected to remain in a reserve role for the time being, but the Boilermakers have already shown why their collective size should be a key to their success this season.

With 17 points and 12 rebounds on Wednesday, 7-2 sophomore Isaac Haas is averaging a team-leading 15.0 points with 8.0 boards and 3.0 blocked shots. Caleb Swanigan, the 6-9 McDonald's All-American, has averaged 11.7 points and a team-high 10.0 rebounds. Vince Edwards, a 6-8 sophomore, has scored 12.7 per game and hit 6 of 11 3-pointers.

The Boilermakers' 56 rebounds Wednesday were their most since pulling down 57 against Towson on Dec. 30, 1986. Their 13 blocks were the third-highest total in school history.

'I think our size overwhelms opponents before the game even starts,' said 6-6 senior guard Rapheal Davis, averaging 13.3 points and shooting 17 of 25 from the field. 'On paper, to be so big, you have to game plan for it."

Old Dominion coach Jeff Jones knew the task that awaits his group even before he watched film of these Boilermakers.

"They're huge," he said. "They're just big across the board. Their size will present a heck of a challenge."

Purdue has shot 53.7 percent overall and seen both its bigs and guards contribute to the 44.3-percent effort from 3-point range. Defensively, opponents have shot 33.0 percent against the Boilermakers.

Though that's all come against a favorable schedule, the Boilermakers are eager to take the court against some solid competition this weekend.

"It's a business trip," Davis said. "That's what you come to a high-major school for."

Looking to go 4-0 for the first time since 2009, ODU returns top-scoring guards Trey Freeman (17.7 points per game) and Aaron Bacote (16.3 ppg) from last season's 27-8 squad that started 13-1, had a brief stay in the Top 25 and lost to Stanford in the semifinals of the NIT.

"Just because they are not big-name guys, they are still good players and can still play basketball at a high level," Davis said.

The Monarchs, who have held Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State to 32.5-percent shooting and 22.9 from beyond the arc, will be without 6-7 starter Brandan Stith because of a knee injury.

ODU snapped a five-game skid against ranked opponents with a victory over then-No. 14 VCU last November.

The winner of this contest plays either Florida or Saint Joseph's in Sunday's championship game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Paladins (2-1) at Huskies (2-0)

Date: November 21, 2015 12:00 PM EDT

Connecticut brought in two fifth-year seniors after missing the NCAA Tournament last season because coach Kevin Ollie said his team needed players who have 'been through the wars.'

That experience has paid off early on as the 19th-ranked Huskies have won both of their games in very different fashions.

Connecticut hosts Furman on Saturday in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament before heading to the Bahamas to take on No. 24 Michigan next week.

The Huskies entered last season as the defending national champions but stumbled to a first-round exit in the NIT. That led to Ollie adding graduate transfers Sterling Gibbs and Shonn Miller.

Gibbs, who began his career at Texas before playing two seasons with Seton Hall, leads UConn with 20.5 points per game. Miller, named first-team all-Ivy League last season while playing for Cornell, is averaging 10.0 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting 69.2 percent.

Gibbs scored 20 and Miller had 17 points and 10 rebounds in a season-opening 100-56 win over Maine on Nov. 13, a game in which the Huskies dominated inside by holding a plus-12 rebounding advantage while throwing down 11 dunks.

They shot only 5 of 22 from 3-point range, but then relied on their outside shooting Tuesday. UConn hit 13 of 27 from beyond the arc to beat New Hampshire 85-66, with Gibbs making five 3s on 10 attempts.

"This showed we have a team that can play in any type of game," Ollie said.

Rodney Purvis, another player who didn't start his career at UConn, went 5 of 9 from deep and scored 20 as the Huskies made their most 3s since going 14 of 25 against Maine two years ago.

"We work hard each and every day on 3-point shooting, that's something we put a lot of emphasis on," said Purvis, who played for North Carolina State in 2012-13.

Furman (2-1) has allowed its last two opponents to go 12 of 34 (35.3 percent) from deep and was outscored by 14 in the second half of Thursday's 77-68 loss at Charlotte.

Senior guard Stephen Croone made his season debut after undergoing thumb surgery and scored a team-high 17 off the bench. He led the Paladins with 17.3 points per game in 2014-15.

Matt Rafferty was held to 10 on 3-of-7 shooting after the freshman forward shot 11 for 17 and totaled 36 points in the first two. He's leading Furman with 9.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game.

The Paladins, who haven't won three of their first four since 2011-12, lost 93-54 at No. 4 Duke in their only game against a ranked opponent last season as Croone missed 11 of 15 shots.

UConn won the only previous meeting between these schools in the championship game of the Connecticut Mutual Classic on Dec. 28, 1991, in Hartford.

Ollie is trying to become the second-fastest coach to reach 75 victories for UConn. His .692 winning percentage ranks fourth among the seven coaches who have won at least 72 games with the Huskies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tar Heels (3-0) at Panthers (1-1)

Date: November 21, 2015 2:00 PM EDT

Top-ranked North Carolina has imposed its will in the paint on its first three opponents, physically dominating each behind a potent interior duo.

The Tar Heels will look to stay perfect as they hit the road for the first time Saturday against Northern Iowa in the schools' first meeting.

North Carolina has outscored its opponents 261-190 while shooting 50.8 percent. Six-foot-10 forwards Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks each had 16 points in Wednesday's 78-58 win against Wofford, with Johnson grabbing 14 rebounds.

The Tar Heels outrebounded the Terriers 42-25 and claimed a 50-18 advantage in points in the paint, running their season edge to 132-50 after blowing out Fairfield and Temple.

Meeks is averaging 16.3 points while Johnson is at 16.0.

"We have two of the best big men in the nation, so we wanted to get the ball down to them, and that's what we did in the first half," said Joel Berry II, who also scored 16 as he continues to fill in for injured starting point guard Marcus Paige. "We were able to get the ball inside and that's what we wanted to do."

UNC's excellent play on the interior has been particularly crucial with Paige sidelined. Paige won't play in Cedar Falls, an hour away from where he grew up in Marion, because a broken hand is expected to sideline him for at least three more games.

Elsewhere in the Carolina backcourt, Justin Jackson is off to another slow start, going 0 for 9 from 3-point range. He shot 44.7 percent from deep over his final 12 games last season after hitting 4 of 24 through his first 11 as a freshman.

"Basketball is a long season. It goes up and down," coach Roy Williams said. "He didn't start out very warm, hot, whatever you want to call it, to start the season last year. He's played well in practice, and he's shot it well in practice. It's going to go in the basket for him. Again, that's not a big concern of mine."

The Panthers opened with an 84-78 loss to Colorado State before bouncing back in a 70-60 victory against Stephen F. Austin on Tuesday, shooting 52.3 percent. They were much improved defensively, holding the Lumberjacks to a 35.5 field-goal percentage after conceding a 48.4 mark against the Rams.

Four players scored 14 or more, led by Paul Jesperson and Matt Bohannon, who each had 15. Bohannon was Paige's high school teammate.

UNI will be looking to limit its turnovers after committing 17 against Stephen F. Austin. The Panthers averaged 10.4 last season to rank 16th nationally.

They're hosting the nation's top team for the first time and are 11-6 at home against ranked squads, winning eight of the last 10. Northern Iowa won its last meeting with a No. 1 team, knocking off Kansas 69-67 in the second round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina has a quick turnaround as it heads to the CBE Classic in Kansas City for two games in two days starting Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Saturday's games..........

North Carolina won its first three games by 24-27-20 points, despite its best player Paige (hand) being out; he is still out. Tar Heels shot 36.4% from arc in first three games. Northern Iowa lost opener to Colorado by 6, then beat SF Austin by 10, both at home; Panthers start three seniors; they're shooting 60% inside the arc this season.

Oregon State won its first three games, including 77-69 win at Rice two days ago; Beavers made 41.5% from arc so far; they beat UCSB 76-64 in LY's meeting, shooting 57.7% inside arc. OSU has an odd rotation; three frosh, three seniors in top 7. UCSB split its first two games, both on the road; they start three seniors, but shot 26.2% from arc in two games.

USC won its first two games, scoring 92 ppg vs San Diego/Monmouth; Trojans are shooting 56.7% inside arc, are #4 in US blocking shots, but New Mexico is big step up in class. Lobos won first three games, with a 83-74 win at rival New Mexico State in first road game. Pac-12 home favorites are 11-8 vs spread; Mountain West road dogs are 6-2.

Nevada lost its last three games with Pacific by 6-2-4 points; Wolf Pack lost 76-75 at Hawai'i late Monday night. PG Coleman scored 32 points, just in second half. Nevada is shooting just 22.5% from arc this season. Pacific allowed 78 ppg in losing first two games by 1-18 points; in last game, they blew 76-70 lead at home to Fullerton State, lost by one.

San Francisco is 2-1, beting Rice by 26 in only home game; they lost by 7 at Fresno State in last game. Dons start two sophs and a frosh, so they're rebuilding again. Cal-Riverside made 13-29 from arc in 77-63 win over WCC's Santa Clara in its first D-I game; Highlanders are improving but you'd rather see them get to line more than 11 times in a win.

Old Dominion won its first three games over stiffs by 17-19-31 points; Monarchs held foes to 22.9% behind arc- they start two juniors and two seniors. Purdue made 44.3% from arc in whacking three stiffs by 41-28-35 points; vet big guy Hammons hasn't played yet, but frosh Swanigan has been good as advertised. CAA road underdogs are 5-9 vs spread.

Florida allowed 47.5 in beating Navy/NC A&T in first two games; Gators take step up in competition here vs St Joe's, which scored 81.3 ppg in its first three games (3-0) including 82-81 win over crosstown rival Drexel. Hawks shot just 26.7% from arc in first three games and they were all at home- this is first neutral game them. SEC favorites are 10-8 vs spread.

Florida State got upset by Hofstra 82-77 yesterday, Pride made 10-22 on arc, even though three fo eight guys they played fouled out. FSU hit 0-10 on arc in first half, couldn't contain Hofstra's veteran G Green. DePaul lost last two games, scoring 61.5 ppg; none of their guys played 30:00+ in yesterday's 76-61 loss to South Carolina- they were -10 on boards.

South Dakota State won first two D-I games by 16-17 points, winning at Illinois State by 16 Thursday; Jackrabbits made 40% from arc so far, are forcing turnovers 26.5% of time- they start three seniors. TCU beat two cupcakes by 13-27 points, making 40% from arc. Summit underdogs are 9-5 vs spread this month. Big X home home favorites are 5-0 vs spread.

Monmouth won at UCLA, lost 101-90 at USC; Hawks start a senior and three juniors- they don't play at home until Dec 13. Drexel allowed 78.5 ppg in losing first two games by 1-9 points to St Joe's/High Point- they made just 57.1% from line in those games. Dragons start two sophs and freshman. CAA underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this month.

Chattanooga made 12-30 from arc in 92-90 OT win at Georgia eight days ago; Moccasins won another game since then- they start three juniors, two seniors. Illinois lost by point at Providence Wednesday; they're 1-2 with marrow home win over North Dakota State, home loss to N Florida. SoCon road underdogs are 4-6 against spread.

Belmont scored 85.3 ppg in 2-1, losing by 9 at Arizona State, winning at Marquette, Western Kentucky, so they've played challenging schedule. Bruins lost 65-62 at home to Evansville LY, after being up 8 at the half. Aces beat two stiffs so far; they start three seniors, two juniors. MVC home favorites are 1-9 vs spread. OVC road underdogs are 6-10.

Western Illinois won as 26-point dog at Wisconsin, beat UIC by 27, so they appear to be much improved; Leathernecks start two juniors, two seniors- they won last three games with Eastern Illinois by 12+. EIU lost first two games by 37-19 points, making 26.5% from arc, turning the ball over 20.1% of time- they start two frosh and a frosh.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 13
By Chris David

Week 12 Recap

Once again the talk surrounding Week 12 was focused on defending champion Chelsea, who dropped a 1-0 decision at Stoke City (+350). The Blues have now lost seven of their first 11 Premier League games, which is the worst effort by a champion in the following season. While it’s doubtful to see the Blues get relegated, they are only three points above the three-team zone. Despite that upset, favorites managed to go 4-2 in Saturday’s seven-game card with one draw.

Sunday’s three-game slate turned out great for bettors investing in draws as Aston Villa held Manchester City to a scoreless effort (+365) at home and Tottenham managed to earn a 1-1 tie (+300) at the Emirates against Arsenal. Also, Crystal Palace (+525) knocked off Liverpool 2-1 as a live road underdog.

Favorites went 4-3 with three draws in Week 12 while the ‘under’ finally pushed through with a dominating 8-2 effort. Through 12 weeks, favorites are 56-31 with 33 draws while the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 59-58-3.

Top 4

It’s hard to keep including Chelsea in this section considering the club is 15 points behind the leaders and is now a 100/1 betting choice to win this year’s Premier League. Still, they were a contender at the beginning of the season and it’s hard to ignore the popularity of the Blues.

Since teams are coming of the second international break of the season, we should not that the first round of rest treated these teams well. All four clubs captured victories, outscoring opponents 13-1.

Manchester United at Watford (Saturday, NBCSN, 7:45 a.m. ET)

An expected defensive struggle is expected to take place from Vicarage Road this week as Manchester United (-120) visits Watford (+375). The total on this game is sitting at two goals (Over -135) and it’s hard to make a case to the high side based on the trends we’ve seen from the pair this season.

Watford has gone 8-4 to the ‘under’ and that includes a 5-1 mark in home. Arsenal was the only team able to solve Hornets’ defense at Vicarage and all three of their goals came late in the second-half. Outside of that burst, Watford has only conceded one goal at home this season. Those results have translated into a 2-2-2 mark but the last four games have handed out three points.

Man U has been a profitable wager on the road (3-1-2) this season but the defense has had lapses, allowing seven in six games compared to just one goal conceded at Old Trafford. Overall, the Red Devils lead the EPL in goals allowed at eight yet total bettors have seen a stalemate in the 12 results (6-6).

These teams haven’t met since the 2006-07 season and United captured 4-0 and 4-1 victories.

Chelsea vs. Norwich City (Saturday, NBCSN, 10:00 a.m. ET)

Even though Chelsea (-250) is listed a healthy favorite for this game, it’s tough to make an argument for the defending champions this week or their opponent Norwich City (+700).

The Blues have dropped three straight and four of five league games. The offense has only mustered up three goals in the four losses and rumors of an excepted fire sale over the holiday break continue to swirl. Chelsea only has two wins (2-1-3) at home this season, one against a short-handed Arsenal squad and the other against last place Aston Villa.

Norwich City actually sits a point higher in the table but it hasn’t been great either. Prior to the break, the Canaries snapped a five-game losing skid with a 1-0 home win over Swansea City. Norwich has struggled on the road (1-2-3) and its only win came back in August as it tripped up Sunderland 3-1.

These clubs are starting at a total of 2 ½ goals and it’s shaded to the ‘over’ (-140) which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Coincidentally, both teams have scored exactly 16 goals and allowed 23 in league play this season. Norwich has seen the ‘over’ go 8-4 and Chelsea is 9-3 to the high side.

Arsenal at West Bromwich Albion (Saturday, USA, 10:00 a.m. ET)

It’s never a smart investment to lay a heavy price on the road but it appears the shoe fits when Arsenal (-210) meets West Brom (+600) on the road. The goal line on the Gunners seems more reasonable (-1, -120) and four of their five road wins this season have come by two-plus.

The Baggies have four wins on the season but three came on the road. At home, West Brom is 1-1-4 and it’s been outscored 12-7 in six games. When facing other Top 4 opponents at home this season, the Baggies came up short in both games to Manchester City (3-0) and Chelsea (3-2).

Arsenal swept the season series against West Bromwich last season, taking a 1-0 win at The Hawthorns. In the last 10 meetings, the Baggies have only managed one win against the Gunners which came in 2010. In the other nine games, Arsenal has won seven to go with two draws.

Manchester City vs. Liverpool (Saturday, NBC, 12:30 p.m. ET)

After opening the season with a 7-2 mark, Manchester City has posted draws in two of its last three games and the once potent offense has only managed two goals during this span. On Sunday, the Blues (-165) will look to get back on track and the latest reports have both Sergio Aguero and David Silva expected to return to action, but they may not start.

Liverpool could also have an injury boost with striker Daniel Sturridge, who is back in training with the club. The Reds could certainly use his services since they only managed to score 13 goals in 12 league games. Fortunately, Liverpool has been very solid defensively and only surrendered 14 which has helped produce a 7-5 ‘under’ record.

City has dropped points only once at home this season, a 2-1 loss to West Ham United on Sept. 9. Since that setback, they’ve outscored teams 13-3 in three wins. Liverpool only has one loss on the road (2-3-1) and that came in early September at Manchester United, 3-1.

Liverpool is tied for second-most in the EPL with five draws while City only has two in 12 games. The tie for this matchup brings back 3/1 odds.

The home team has won four straight in this series, which includes City’s 3-1 win against Liverpool last season. The total on this game is listed at 2 ½ and bettors should note that nine of the last 10 encounters between the pair have seen at least three combined goals scored.

Fearless Predictions

We’ve been able to turn a profit in back-to-back weeks and last week’s effort ($460) was our best of the season. We’re still down four digits ($1,045) and handicapping off the International break is never easy but the confidence is getting better.

Straight – Under 2 (-135) Manchester United-Watford – 2 Units

Straight – Over 2 ½ (-125) Liverpool-Manchester City – 1 Unit

Straight – West Ham-Tottenham Draw (+325) – 1 Unit

Straight – Under 2 ½ (-110) Sunderland-Crystal Palace – 2 Units

Parlay – Leicester City (+145), Manchester City (-165) – 1 Unit

Parlay – Under Chelsea-Norwich 2 ½, Arsenal (-210) – 1 Unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

It's time for Chelsea to turn their season around
By SOCCER AUTHORITY

Soccer Authority takes a look at some of the biggest matches on this weekend's Premier League schedule.

Watford vs. Manchester United

Watford have been the surprise package this season and the relegation candidates are looking solid in 11th position with 4 wins, 4 Draws and 4 losses.

Man United are also performing well and are only two points off the top spot in 4th position and are currently boasting the best defensive record in the league. However, the Red Devils have scored the least amount of goals among the Top 7 in the League.

Key Stat: United have not conceded a goal in their last 525 minutes of play

Key Injuries: Anthony Martial (Manchester United) is a concern after sustaining a foot injury while playing for France.


Chelsea vs. Norwich

Last year's champions Chelsea somehow find themselves in 16th position after 12 games and are desperately seeking a win this weekend.

Norwich, who were expected to struggle this season, are performing much as we thought they would and sit just above Chelsea in 15th position.

If you watched Chelsea's last two games you would have noticed drastically improved performances and now that the long international break is over we're expecting them to get their season started with a win against the Canaries

Key Stat: Norwich have failed to win 16 of their last 17 away games in the EPL

Key Injuries/Suspensions: Falcao and Courtois (Chelsea) will be unavailable due to injury. Nathan Redmond (Norwich) and Kurt Zouma (Chelsea) are also doubts


Manchester City vs. Liverpool

Liverpool look like a new team under Jurgen Klopp and have lost only once since the German appointed as the head coach. Liverpool should also be buoyed by the return of striker Daniel Sturridge from injury this weekend.

Man City sit top of EPL and deservedly so, they've been consistent all season and should be difficult to beat at home against any team in world football.

Key Stat: The last seven meetings between the sides has yielded 3.9 Goals per game.

Key Injuries: Aguero and Silva and doubt for Man City, Liverpool will be without center back Mamadou Sakho

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

The Big 12 was the Power 5 conference left stewing last season in regards to the College Football Playoff. And while I think the Big 12 could be left out again, I'm certain now that the Pac-12 is going to miss out on the playoff this year.

That was all but assured this past weekend as Pac-12 North Division-leading Stanford, which was No. 7 in the most recent CFP rankings, was beaten by Oregon. The Cardinal are obviously going to drop in Tuesday's new rankings. They also missed a chance to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game. Oregon needs Stanford to lose this week at home against Cal for the Ducks to have a shot at winning the North.

The bigger upset was No. 10 Utah, the South Division leader, falling 37-30 in double overtime at Arizona. So clearly the Utes are out of the playoff chase, and they also no longer control their destiny to win the South as Utah is tied with Southern Cal for first place; the Trojans hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. USC visits Oregon this week with the Ducks as opening 4.5-point favorites.

In the latest Associated Press Top 25, no Pac-12 team is in the Top 14, so go ahead and write in the conference champion for a Rose Bowl spot -- probably against Iowa, which I presume will lose the Big Ten title game to the East Division champion.

Here are a few Week 12 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll.

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois (-3): This is Wednesday, and I looked at a Wednesday night MACtion game in this space last week -- WMU was also a 3-point dog in that one, at home to Bowling Green. The Falcons won 41-27 to clinch the MAC East title. Now WMU is in a three-way tie with NIU and Toledo (which is at Bowling Green on Tuesday) for the West Division title. The winner of this game would control its destiny to face Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game on Dec. 4 at Ford Field in Detroit. NIU already beat Toledo and will be a big favorite in its regular-season finale against Ohio. Western closes the regular season at Toledo. Weeknight games are nothing new for Northern Illinois. It hasn't played a Saturday game in November on a date later than Nov. 3 since Nov. 20, 2010 at Ball State. Northern Illinois won at Western Michigan 31-21 to conclude the 2014 regular season in the snow to clinch the MAC West title. Western led 21-7 in the second quarter but turned the ball over six times. The pick: NIU.

No. 11 TCU at No. 7 Oklahoma (TBA): The Sooners were the big risers in the AP poll, jumping five spots after an impressive 44-34 win at Baylor on Saturday, which pretty much ended the Bears' playoff hopes. They had won 20 straight home games. I expect OU to perhaps rise as high as No. 5 in the new CFP rankings. If the Sooners win this game and then in the Bedlam matchup in Stillwater against Oklahoma State the following week, then the Sooners would clinch their ninth Big 12 title and first since sharing a title with Kansas State in 2012. This line is TBA because of the status of TCU's two best players, quarterback Trevone Boykin and receiver Josh Doctson. They are both questionable with injuries, but I have a feeling both play. Boykin suffered an ankle injury on the second play of Saturday's win over Kansas. Doctson was playing with a wrap on his left hand and wrist from an injury the previous week at Oklahoma State. In last year's 37-33 win over Oklahoma, Boykin threw for 318 yards and two scores and rushed for 77 yards, while Doctson had six grabs for 76 yards. The pick: Oklahoma wins comfortably even if those two Frogs play.

No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State (-13): While the books haven't put out a spread yet on TCU because of Boykin, they do have one here even though Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook was knocked out of Saturday's win over Maryland with a shoulder injury. He returned to complete six of 20 first-half passes with an interception and no touchdowns and then spent the second half on the sideline wearing a headset. Cook says there's no way he's missing the Big Ten's game of the year. This one means too much to the fifth-year senior, who is from Ohio but didn't even get a scholarship sniff from OSU. If Sparty wins this game and then the following week against Penn State, it wins the Big Ten East Division. OSU also controls its destiny as it closes, as usual, against Michigan. If the Buckeyes, who have won an NCAA-record 30 straight in-conference regular-season games, and Wolverines (at Penn State) both win this week, their game in Ann Arbor will have title implications for both sides for the first time since 2007. ESPN GameDay will be on hand here. Ohio State won in East Lansing last year 49-37 behind five total touchdowns from QB J.T. Barrett. The pick: MSU covers as long as Cook does play.

No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Boston College (+17): This game is at Fenway Park, and it should terrify Irish fans. Yes, the Eagles enter on a six-game losing streak. But this is Boston College's bowl game as it won't get postseason eligible. Plus BC has a stellar defense, leading the country in yards allowed per game (237.0), rushing yards allowed (71.7) and third in points (14.4) given up; BC is dead last in total offense. Notre Dame might be caught looking ahead to the regular-season finale at Stanford with a playoff spot likely on the line for the Irish. Notre Dame starting linebacker James Onwualu will miss this game with a second-degree MCL sprain. The junior has 36 total tackles, including five for loss and two sacks, and one forced fumble this season. Running back C.J. Prosise should play after missing Saturday's win over Wake Forest with a concussion. The pick: BC covers and go "under" whatever total this is, and it will be quite low.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams

2015 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-7 0-7 4-5-1 2-8
Clemson 10-0 7-0 5-5 6-4
Duke 6-4 3-3 5-5 3-7
Florida State 8-2 6-2 6-4 3-7
Georgia Tech 3-7 1-6 3-7 5-5
Louisville 6-4 5-2 5-5 4-5-1
Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 5-5 5-5
North Carolina 9-1 6-0 7-3 5-5
North Carolina State 6-4 2-4 6-4 4-6
Pittsburgh 7-3 5-1 5-5 4-5-1
Syracuse 3-7 1-5 6-4 9-1
Virginia 3-7 2-4 6-3-1 5-4-1
Virginia Tech 5-5 3-3 5-5 5-5
Wake Forest 3-7 1-5 5-5 4-5-1


North Carolina at Virginia Tech (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels roll into Blacksburg looking to keep their championship hopes alive. With a win, they clinch the Coastal Division title and a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The Tar Heels have covered five of their past six conference tilts, and they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games. And they have had tremendous success building upon success, going 12-5 ATS in their past 17 games following a cover in the previous week. The outlook is good for the Tar Heels to continue their success, as the road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, and the favorite has covered in four of the past five. The Hokies are also 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning record, and they have followed up a cover by going 6-15 ATS in their next game. The under is also an overwhelming trend here, going 5-1 in UNC's past six road games and 5-1 in Virginia Tech's past six overall. The under is also 7-1 in the past eight meetings in this series, and 5-0 in the past five meetings in Blacksburg.

Syracuse at North Carolina State (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Orange haven't been winning games, coming out on the winning side just three times in 10 games. But, their games have generally been competitive, and usually high scoring. The Orange have covered four of their past five against teams with a winning record, although they're just 1-5 ATS in their past six games on the road. N.C. State has been covering, regardless of the venue, going 9-4 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. As mentioned, the over is prevalent in Syracuse games, going 9-1 in 10 games this season. However, the under is 18-7-1 in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. The under is 7-2 in N.C. State's past nine against teams with a losing overall record, and 5-2 in their past seven ACC games. The underdog has cashed in each of the past four meetings in this series.

Georgia Tech at Miami-Florida (ESPN3, 12:30p.m. ET)
Miami is licking its wounds once again after getting spanked at North Carolina last weekend, allowing 59 points in the process. This game opened with Miami as a one-point favorite, and Georgia Tech money quickly poured in to make it a pick 'em, or have Georgia Tech favored slightly at some shops. It's a curious line considering Ga. Tech is just 3-7 overall, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight games overall, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven ACC games and 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a winning home record. Of course, Miami hasn't been hot, either, going 1-6 ATS in their past seven against losing teams, and just 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the Yellow Jackets 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings.

Wake Forest at Clemson (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
This game is shaping up like a slaughter, but the Demon Deacons could have a couple of things on their side. Clemson already has sewn up a spot in the ACC Championship game, and they could be looking ahead to their rivalry game with South Carolina. Of course, the Tigers just so happen to be No. 1 in the College Football Playoff standings, so they cannot afford to take any of their games lightly. Still, it's a tricky spot for the Tigers as a 30-point favorite. Of course, Wake is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games, and 8-18 ATS in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. Clemson is just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 ACC games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a losing record. The home team has dominated the series lately, going 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

Duke at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke has been in freefall lately, losers of three straight since their controversial lateral-filled kickoff return for score in the loss against Miami. Duke is just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, although they have still managed to cover six of their past seven on the road. Of course, that one loss is their most recent road game, a 66-31 spanking in Chapel Hill against the rival Tar Heels two weeks ago. Virginia isn't winning a lot of games, but they're keeping it close. The Cavs have covered four in a row, and they're 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, but they're just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven at Scott Stadium against teams with a winning road record. Duke is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, while the under has connected in five of the past six meetings in Charlottesville.

Louisville at Pittsburgh (ESPNews, 3:45 p.m.)
Louisville started off super slow, but they rebounded nicely to win four in a row and six of the past seven to become bowl eligible after an 0-3 SU start. The Cardinals might be winning, but they're just 1-4 ATS over their past five after going 4-1 ATS in their past five. Needless to say, it's been a strange season for head coach Bobby Petrino's bunch. Pitt was 6-1 SU until their loss to North Carolina Oct. 29, and they have won two of the past three games. The Panthers are also 1-3 ATS in the past four games while the 'under' has hit in three of those four outings, too. The trends are not helpful, as Pitt is 0-5 ATS in their past five home games. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but the road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. And the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings overall.

Boston College at Notre Dame (NBCSN, 7:30 p.m.)
Over the years Boston College has been a thorn in the side of Notre Dame, even when they haven't had their best team. The Eagles could be very dangerous in this one, as they sport one of the country's top defensive units, although their offense is in shambles. This game will be played at Fenway Park in Boston, and that doesn't bode well for the Eagles, either. They're 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site games. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their past eight, although they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a losing record. B.C. has covered four of the past five, with the underdog cashing in eight of the past 10. The under is a perfect 6-0 in the past six meetings, too, although the over is 11-5 in Notre Dame's past 16.

Other Games
Chattanooga at Florida State (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)