Saturday 11/1/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

East Carolina vs. Temple

Play - Temple.

Edges - Owls: 8-1 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points with head coach Matt Rhule; and 6-2 ATS as a conference home dog. Pirates: 4-13 ATS away off a SU win under head coach Ruffin McNeill, including 1-10 ATS in conference games. With ECU riding a 3-game losing spread streak, while also having surrendered season-high yards in two it last three contests, don’t be surprised by an upset here with this made to order home dog. We recommend a 1-unit play on Temple. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

*3 Star NCAA FB Free Pick* Kansas State

After a nice showing against Florida State in the season opener, it looked like the Oklahoma State Cowboys might have a nice season. An injury to starting quarterback JW Walsh didn't help at all, but time has shown this Oklahoma State team just isn't very good. Oklahoma State returned only 4 starters on offense and 4 starters on defense this year. Mike Gundy's team has struggled against quality opponents with Daax Garman at quarterback. Garman makes far too many bad decisions and can really hurt his team. Kansas State is unbeaten in the Big 12. Bill Snyder is an absolute genious, and his team is going to be ready to play every single week. The Wildcats defense has really surprised me this year, and they are the main reason this team is so good. Kansas State takes care of business on their home field here. Take Kansas State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

TCU vs. West Virginia

5* FREE NCAAF ATS Play TCU Horned Frogs -3.5

This is going to be a huge game in Morgantown this weekend with more B12 implications than we could have ever imagined at the start of the season. Both of these teams have just one conference loss with the winner being in great shape moving forward.

The line on this one opened at TCU -6 and now has been shaved down to -3.5. TCU has been explosive on offense and can still play some D too so that number is more than reasonable. WVU already got their upset. I don’t see another.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Duke vs. Pittsburgh

10* graded play on the Pittsburgh Panthers as they take on the Duke Blue Devils

in ACC Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 6 points over the 24th ranked Duke. Pitt knows that if they win this game they have a great shot at running the table and finishing the season at 8-4 and entertain some much bigger bowl games than their current 4-4 record would reflect now. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (PITTSBURGH) that is an excellent rushing team averaging >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Further, 38% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. This marks the first time since the mid-19050's that a Duke football team has been ranked in consecutive seasons. This team does have experience in numbers from last year's first appearance in the top-25 since the 1994 season. Over my 23 seasons of handicapping games, I have seen unranked teams FAVORED at home over a ranked team and there is a reason for this whether hidden or fully apparent. Check it out the remainder of the season and see how the results reflect this simple observation. The biggest reason I see Pitt winning this game easily is their very strong ground attack that ranks 34th in the nation averaging 209 yards-per-game. Duke has not be able to stop the run consistently this season ranking a miserable 98th in the nation allowing 203 yards-per-game. Duke has it's own very strong ground attack, but the Pitt defensive front is much more talented and will be able to contain them forcing them into numerous third-and-long situations. Don't be misled by Duke's 4th best ranking in scoring defense at 15.5 PPG as they also rank 105th in red zone scoring defense allowing 90% of opponent possessions to put numbers up on the scoreboard. The reason most evident is the that Duke has had a significantly weak SOS and now they face a stiff competitor that can win both sides of the LOS. Take Pittsburgh.

 

[Bobbyhill]

Robert Ferringo flat-out dominating! 7-Unit KING System winner Friday? Yes! 5-Unit NHL GOTW winner Friday? Yes! Four straight winning NBA nights? Yes! Robert has gone 4-1 to start this football week and has +2700 football profit the L9 days. He is coming back with a 7-Unit College Play Saturday and a 7-Unit NFL total Sunday. Robert is 29-7 with his L36 football picks of 7.0 or higher (11-1 run)

Raphael Esparza the No. 1 NBA handicapper in the country and started his season started with FOUR straight winning nights! Esparza has an unmatched string of 7 of 8 winning NBA seasons and his 5-Unit NBA Game of the Week was easy money winner (Cle-Chi 'Over').

How bout some doc sports guys?? All you need if you guys want winner that easy!!

 

[gmrcharity]

Cant post them on the RX as they advertise. Doc has really been good this year. 133 Units won in Baseball.

Robert Ferringo flat-out dominating! 7-Unit KING System winner Friday? Yes! 5-Unit NHL GOTW winner Friday? Yes! Four straight winning NBA nights? Yes! Robert has gone 4-1 to start this football week and has +2700 football profit the L9 days. He is coming back with a 7-Unit College Play Saturday and a 7-Unit NFL total Sunday. Robert is 29-7 with his L36 football picks of 7.0 or higher (11-1 run)

Raphael Esparza the No. 1 NBA handicapper in the country and started his season started with FOUR straight winning nights! Esparza has an unmatched string of 7 of 8 winning NBA seasons and his 5-Unit NBA Game of the Week was easy money winner (Cle-Chi 'Over').

How bout some doc sports guys?? All you need if you guys want winner that easy!!

 

[odoggx21]

Vegas Dave please thanks a lot guys

 

[BRUTUS]

The RAINMAN please..thnks

 

[BRUTUS]

The RAINMAN..please...thnks

 

[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 12:45

Newcastle

v

Liverpool

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		11/4	11/4	21/20	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NEWCASTLE	RECENT FORM
AD*ALADHWAWAW​ Most recent​	2 - 2 0 - 6 2 - 0 3 - 1	ALHWAWHLHDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: The last time this fixture produced a goalless draw was in 1974, 64 meetings ago

EXPERT VERDICT: This pair have produced some classics down the years and six of the eight meetings since Newcastle returned to the top flight for 2010-11 have finished with over 2.5 goals. The teams have kept just four Premier League clean sheets between them and Newcastle's recent form suggests they can give Liverpool a decent contest.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1


REFEREE: Andre Marriner STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 15:00

Chelsea

v

QPR

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		2/11	15/2	16	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT CHELSEA	RECENT FORM
AWHWAWHWADAW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 6 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0	ALHDALALHLHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Chelsea have only scored more than once in the first half twice this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Recent meetings have been close, with QPR beating Chelsea at Loftus Road in 2011 and only a 6-1 thrashing towards the end of 2011-12 reflecting the gulf in class sides in Rangers' last stint in the top flight. Chelsea should win but it may not be a complete thrashing.

RECOMMENDATION: Chelsea 2-0
1


REFEREE: Mike Jones STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 15:00

Hull

v

Southampton

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		16/5	12/5	19/20	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HULL	RECENT FORM
ADALHLHWADAD​ Most recent​	0 - 1 0 - 2 5 - 0 2 - 4	AWHWALHWHWAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hull have drawn five of their last eight league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Southampton have made a superb start to the season but Hull have been very tough to beat too. Steve Bruce’s side have come away with draws from the Emirates and Anfield in their last two games and Manchester City are the only team to win at the KC Stadium so far. The Tigers can take a point off the Saints too.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Martin Atkinson STADIUM: Kingston Communication Stad.

 

[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 15:00

Everton

v

Swansea

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		8/11	11/4	9/2	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EVERTON	RECENT FORM
ADADALHWADAW​ Most recent​	3 - 2 3 - 1 0 - 0 1 - 0	HWADHDALHWAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Swansea have one point from their last three road trips

EXPERT VERDICT: Everton’s reserves lost 3-0 to Swansea in the League Cup but there should be no repeat at Goodison Park. The Toffees’s recent form doesn’t look great but it doesn’t tell the whole story. They drew at Anfield and were unlucky to lose at Old Trafford – their only defeat in six matches, despite five of them being away games.

RECOMMENDATION: Everton
1


REFEREE: Kevin Friend STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 15:00

Arsenal

v

Burnley

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		2/7	11/2	10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ARSENAL	RECENT FORM
HDHWALHDAWAW​ Most recent​	3 - 1 3 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1	ADHDALADHLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Arsenal have scored in eight of nine league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Last weekend’s victory at Sunderland was only Arsenal’s third win in nine league games but they should take a routine three points at home to Burnley. The Clarets remain without a Premier League win and are desperately short of goals – they’ve failed to score in three of four league away games.

RECOMMENDATION: Arsenal 2-0
1


REFEREE: Craig Pawson STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Premier TODAY 15:00

Stoke

v

West Ham

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		6/4	12/5	2	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT STOKE	RECENT FORM
AWHWALHWALHL​ Most recent​	3 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 1	ADHWALHWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Three of Stoke’s four home league games have been under 2.5 goals

EXPERT VERDICT: West Ham’s remarkable start to the season hit new heights with their win over Manchester City last weekend but a trip to the Britannia remains a tough test. Much of Stoke’s top-flight success has been built on a formidable home record and even free-scoring West Ham will find them hard to break down.

RECOMMENDATION: 1-1 draw
1


REFEREE: Chris Foy STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NC Comps

Button 9
Mon: E Bird: Ohio St -27.5
Tue: Pow Plays 4*: Nevada -3.5
Wed: Econ #2 Play: MTST +4
Thur: Big Dog: Old Dominion +7.5
Fri: B12 Pow: TCU -3.5
Sat:

Button 3 Comps
Tue: Pow Plays 4*: Maryland +3.5
THu: NFL Total: KC/NYJ Under 41.5
Sun:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 12 - Post: 4:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$4200 - FILLIES & MARES - NON-WINNERS $2,500 IN LAST 4 STARTS, AE: NON-WINNERS 4 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 MAKE MAGIC 9/5


# 5 LOOKOUT STOKK ZONE 7/2


# 1 ALWAYSAFIRSTTIME 7/2


MAKE MAGIC is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the knowledge group. The wagering panel gives this horse a very good chance to come home a winner, class ratings are tops in the race. Many handicappers will recognize the great TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this group of horses. The number crunching team always likes a proven performer. This horse's high winning percentage is evidence of that. LOOKOUT STOKK ZONE - This gathering may be controlled by this mare. A single look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will confirm that. The group gives this contender a formidable chance to come home a winner, class numbers are tops in the group of animals. ALWAYSAFIRSTTIME - 100 percent of the time this trainer and horse match end up hitting the board. Big players today. Should be given a look based on the really strong TrackMaster Speed Rating earned in the last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 7:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$4700 - FIVE YEAR-OLDS & UNDER CONDITION CLAIMING $7,500 FOR NW 5


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 JUS' LIKE A VIRGIN 3/1


# 4 TUMBLIN' DICE 6/1


# 1 DIRECTLY RELATED 9/5

The pick in this one is JUS' LIKE A VIRGIN. Cannot put a finger on it, but like this gelding for a wager. Could surprise us at a decent price. Don't leave out. Has very good TrackMaster Speed Ratings and clearly has to be thought of for a bet in this contest. TUMBLIN' DICE - Many smart handicappers know speed is is such an important factor. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 75 average figure. This race horse looks tough considering the high class ratings. Not a good idea to throw out of any exotics. DIRECTLY RELATED - With a really good 73 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Pace ratings fit the bias well here at Pompano Park, look for this one to get the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rusty Nash at Yonkers Raceway

Rustys Simulcast Best Plays for

Woodbine ~ Yonkers ~ Vernon Downs ~ Balmoral - Pocono


Saturday November 1, 2014

Handicapped using TrackMaster Charts, TrackMaster Plus Programs and Data Files, my personal Speed Rating Projections and several decades of keen observation!


Overview of Todays Simulcast Selections

Now that the afternoon distraction is over, it is time to get back to business.

For the last time this year we have a large number of tracks. Several will be closing.

For the Bonus Plays this season we will go with our 3 horse Projection Worksheet Exacta Boxes. This is defined as a situation where the projected gap between the third and fourth horses is four lengths or more. The secondary qualification is that none of the other horses in the race can be on my watch list. Some weeks we have quite a few other weeks they can be pretty scarce.

My only word of caution here is my worksheet does not include qualifiers. Horses coming off of a Q are usually found at the bottom of the list. Part of your job is to determine if the play should be altered in any way.

Wishing us all great racing luck this evening!

* * *
Rustys Best Plays guarantee a minimum of three races with full description and initial wagering thoughts 24-48 hours out. These are the races that look most interesting from a wagering perspective. Usually we will end up with about 4-6 races where a decent play may materialize if the odds are with us. Other races may be found with little or no commentary or only my list of rated contenders. These are races where I probably do not have a strong opinion or think should be avoided for other reasons. Normally I troll these races looking for overlays among my top rated selections. They are also useful for DD, P3, and P4 sequences.

I use the same care in preparing this report as I do for my own private equine investing!

Please compare my selections names and numbers to the official program. I do, and so should you. Now, off to the races......


Please note these exacta plays are listed in numerical order and not my graded order.

Vernon Downs Race #2 Exacta box: 3 ~ 4 ~ 5.
Vernon Downs Race #10 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 3 ~ 4.
Vernon Downs Race #11 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 3.

Woodbine Race #4 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 4 ~ 5.
Woodbine Race #7 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 3 ~ 4.

Pocono Race #7 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 4.

Yonkers Race #3 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 4 ~ 6.
Yonkers Race #10 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 3.
Yonkers Race #12 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 3 ~ 4.

Balmoral Race #8 Exacta Box: 3 ~ 4 ~ 7.

Good luck! See you right back here next time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14700 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 UNLEASH THE HUMOR 4/1


# 10 ARI'S PRIDE 5/1


# 12 CONTRIP 12/1

UNLEASH THE HUMOR looks strong to best this field. His 88 average has this horse with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in this race. Solid selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Ought to be carefully examined based on the quite good Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last affair. ARI'S PRIDE - Trainers don't bring ponies back this quickly just for exercise. The price should be right on this one. CONTRIP - Will most likely come out very solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the front end recently. He has a good opportunity in this race as handler, Delgado, has strong win rate with horses going this distance.