Saturday 11/1/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Mr. Vegas

Free Saturday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 7:35 PM

(513) INDIANA PACERS VS (514) ATLANTA HAWKS

Take: (514) ATLANTA HAWKS

The Hawks would like nothing better than to beat the Pacers here, considering they lost to Indiana in seven games in the playoffs last year. Yes, Atlanta made the playoffs with a losing record, but the east is a weak conference. The Hawks should be better too with the return of Al Horford. With Horford last year they had a winning record, without him a losing record. Meanwhile, the Pacers won't be as good this year with the loss of Paul George and Lance Stephenson. To further complicate the issue, the Pacers are likely also going to be without forward David West (ankle). Hawks at home here will show no mercy to the hurting Pacers. Take the Hawks in what should be a blowout win.

 

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Jim Feist

Comp NBA Pick for Saturday, November 1, 2014: 7:05 PM ET

(503) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (504) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

Take: (503) DALLAS MAVERICKS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, November 1st, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans. The Mavs were one of the best road covering teams in the NBA last season, posting a remarkable 66% mark ATS away from home. They already are 1-0 away this year, covering at San Antonio in their opening game of the season. This year's edition of the Mavs is even better, loaded with veterans and a deep bench including the addition of Tyson Chandler, Jameer Nelson and Chandler Parsons to complement Dirk Nowtizki. The Pelicans will have to improve this year if they hope to make the playoffs in the tough West conference. The Suns missed the playoffs last year, despite winning 48 games. New Orleans is led by their best player and one of the best in the league in Anthony Davis. But the Pelicans need to give him help and improve on one of the worst defenses in the league last year. Need little more than a Dallas straight up win to get the cover here. Mavs just too talented for Davis to take on alone. Lay the points with one of the best road teams in the NBA. Your Bonus Play is on the Dallas Mavericks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Kansas vs. Baylor

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Baylor -35

The Baylor Bears have been steaming over their bye week the last two weeks from their road loss to West Virginia that really put a damper on their playoff hopes. I look for them to take out their frustration on the lowly Kansas Jayhawks this week and to win this game by more than five touchdowns to cover the spread. The Jayhawks stand little chance of keeping this game competitive at all.

Baylor is putting up 49.0 points per game this season while ranking 1st in the country in total offense at 579.0 yards per game. After their worst offensive output of the season against West Virginia, you can bet Art Briles will make sure this offense kicks it into high-gear this week. They are 3-0 at home where they are scoring 58.7 points and averaging 692.0 yards per game this year.

Kansas may be lucky to score in this game. It is only putting up 16.6 points and 336.3 yards per game on the season. It will have a hard time moving the football against a Baylor defense that is only allowing 23.0 points and 325.3 yards per game. So, not only do the Bears have the best offense in the country, they also have an underrated defense.

Baylor is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Kansas. Last year, the Bears beat the Jayhawks by 45 points (59-14) on the road while racking up 743 total yards in the process. They held the Jayhawks to just 308 yards, outgaining them by 435 yards for the game. Bryce Petty threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns before being removed from the game. This was a 45-0 game before the Jayhawks finally put together two touchdown drives in garbage time in the second half.

I like the mindset of this Baylor team coming off its bye week. “A lot of times you can float along and think everything is OK when maybe it’s not and we were living proof that it’s not, so we are certainly going to be a determined team here from this day forward without question,” Briles said.

The Bears are a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games. Kansas is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 road games. Baylor is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Kansas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a bye week. Plays on home favorites of 21.5 or more points (BAYLOR) – when playing with two weeks or more of rest are 56-20 (73.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Baylor Saturday.

 

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Rocky Atkinson

Kentucky vs. Missouri

FREE CFB play Saturday Kentucky

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Merril

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

Bonus Play Kansas State

Oklahoma State is finally playing like we thought they would at the beginning of the season. The Cowboys have lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 76-19. They’ve shown nothing that indicates they can turn things around, especially against a good team like Kansas State. The Cowboys have been atrocious on the road this season. Their offense is only averaging 22.3 points per game on 4.4 yards per play while their defense is allowing 33 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

Kansas State is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS this season. The Wildcats are 4-1 at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 6 points (20-14) to Auburn, a game they could have easily won. Kansas State’s four home wins have come by 39, 30, 32, and 23 points. Head coach Bill Snyder has never been shy about running up the score, and he’ll do it here since Kansas State is playing with revenge from a 33-29 loss at Oklahoma State last season. The Wildcats are averaging 39 points per game at home this season, so they will score at will against a terrible Oklahoma State defense that has allowed 99 points in their three games away from home this season. These two teams are simply heading in opposite directions, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday night.

 

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Red Dog Sports

TCU vs. West Virginia

Bonus Play Over 70

Both teams can put up points. The game is set for Morgantown, WV and even if the November weather is cooler I still think we see plenty of points. Both teams are in the top 10 in passing efficiency and Baylor scored over 80 points last week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Notre Dame vs. Navy

Free Pick on Notre Dame -14.5

The fact that Navy was able to play Notre Dame close last year might have some looking to take the two touchdowns and the hook, but I believe there’s a big difference between the Fighting Irish team that took the field last season and the one that has started out 2014 6-1. The biggest difference being Everett Golson. Keep in mind that in 2012, when Notre Dame went 12-0, they absolutely dominated the Midshipmen in a 50-10 win. I don’t know that it will be quite that big of a blowout this time around, but I like Notre Dame’s chances of winning here by more than two touchdowns.

Navy just hasn’t been all that impressive in my eyes. I really thought the Midshipmen had a chance at a double-digit win season with 15 starters coming back, including star quarterback Keenan Reynolds, but they haven’t been able to put it together. Back-to-back wins over the likes of VMI and San Jose State aren’t going to change my opinion on this team being able to compete with a far superior opponent. We have already seen Navy lose to the likes of Rutgers, Western Kentucky and Air Force.

Prior to their brutal 3-game stretch that had them go up against Stanford, North Carolina and Florida State, each of Notre Dame’s first 4 wins came by at least 16-points. I know they had a close call against the Tar Heels, who haven’t been all that impressive, but that was a huge trap game.

One of things that I really like about the Fighting Irish in this matchup is they come in off that heartbreaking loss to Florida State, which they feel they should have won. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated to put that loss behind them and I don’t see them overlooking Navy after last year’s close call. Another big advantage for Notre Dame is that they come in off a bye, which has allowed them two full weeks to prepare for Navy’s option based offense.

The Midshipmen’s run-oriented offense plays right into the strength of the Notre Dame defense, which enters ranked 12th in the country against the run, allowing just 102.7 ypg. If the Fighting Irish can keep Navy from having success on the ground, it’s going to make it extremely difficult for the Midshipmen to keep this close. Navy is not strong defensively and are not a team that’s capable of playing from behind. The Fighting Irish should have no problem winning here by 20+ points!

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 road games against strong rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry, while Navy is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 versus good offensive teams that are averageing 425 or more total yards/game. Take Notre Dame!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Stanford vs. Oregon

1* Bonus Play Stanford +8

I have not been a fan of this Stanford team.. They lack play makers and they lost a ton of talent on defense from last year, but the defense is still playing as the best defense in the nation. Oregon is over rated and the only reason this is not a higher rated play is their offensive line is starting to get healthy, but they will play the best defense they have had to face all year. Stanford just has their number they know how to play Oregon and I just don’t think Oregon is ready to blow this team out. The spread is blown up a bit because after Oregon’s loss to Arizona they have gone back to being Oregon, but their offensive line got lucky getting to face the 116th and 126th ranked sack % defenses in 2 of their last 3 games. Stanford is ranked 13th, and 2nd in yards/attempts, and they are also ranked 5th vs. the run and have played several quality opponents on their schedule. There is still a lot for Stanford to achieve this year and I think it starts with their perennial win over Oregon.

 

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Chip Chirimbes

North Carolina vs. Miami (Fla)

Chip's FREE NCAA Winner Miami FL

Miami FL over NorthCarolina-This sets up perfectly for the Hurricanes as their offense will just shread the Tar Heels defense as Carolina is off upset win. Take MIAMI!

 

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Michael Alexander

BYU vs. Middle Tennessee State

1 Unit NCAAF Free Pick Middle Tennessee State

The Cougars of BYU had climbed to the Number 18 spot even with a 4-4 start as QB Hill was being touted as a legitimate Heisman candidate. But unfortunately he got hurt and is out for the year, in loss to Utah State. BYU has dropped 4 straight, while failing to cover since its upset of Texas in week 2. They have also given up an average of 39.2 points per game in their last 5 games and have committed 11 turn overs in their last 4 games. Middle Tennessee State comes int this one with 11 takeaways in their last 4 games. Middle Tennessee State has seven straight wins at home and they will be looking for revenge.

 

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Steve Janus

Utah vs. Arizona State

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick ---Utah Utes +6.5---

The Utes continue to be extremely undervalued by the books. Utah has the exact same 6-1 SU record as Arizona State, yet are getting 6.5-points. Not a huge surprise considering the Sun Devils have been overrated all season. Utah went on the road and beat UCLA 30-28, while Arizona State lost at home to the Bruins 27-62 in primetime on Thursday night. Utah's ability to stop the run and get after the quarterback is going to make it extremely hard on the Arizona State offense to come anywhere close to their offensive averages, while the Utes shoudn't have any problem moving the ball against a bad Sun Devils defense. Don't be fooled by the 10-points that Arizona State has allowed in their last two games against two bad offensive teams in Stanford and Washington.

System 1 - Home favorites in conference games between two mistake free teams that are averaging 1.25 or less turnovers/game are 39-84 (32%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

System 2 - Road teams who have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games with a winning record on the season are 131-76 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET UTAH +6.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Karpinski

TCU vs. West Virginia

Bonus Play TCU

TCU is a very tough team no doubt and have proved that all year long. Led by big time JR QB Trevone Boykin and his dangerous deep ball. I am imagining they put Chris Hackett on Kevin White from WVU, which should be a great matchup. I am looking forward to this game between the BIG 12 newbies. West Virginia comes in playing very well, winners of 4 straight by an average margin of 15. They as well have an explosive offense. They have already improved greatly from 2013, and won more games than they did last year, and likely will be heading to a Bowl game in 2014. In the end, TCU and their scoring punch will be too much to handle as WVirgina has beaten some tough teams lately and several players are playing hurt and it will take its toll against this physical TCU team..

TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games and I like them in this spot to win by 10 or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Duke vs. Pittsburgh

Bonus Play SATURDAY Duke +3.5

The Line is dropping as sharp money is coming in on Duke. One thing that is crucial in your handicapping is turnover ratio, especially as the season rolls along. Duke is #1 in the ACC in turnover ratio (for the good) and Pitt is dead last. Anyone see the Pitt game last week against Georgia Tech? They had 6 total turnovers and 5 in the first 5 possessions in a blowout loss.

Duke is very well coached by Cutcliffe and have a solid offense capable of putting up points here and Pitt has QB issues and may use 2 QBs in this one. While Pitt can run the ball and Duke is suspect to give up some run yards, it is Duke that has the big play capability and they will find a way to shut down Pitt’s QBs from running with the ball. Duke is a 6-1 football team who beat Georgia Tech on the road as a 3 point pup 2 weeks ago, the same team who destroyed Pitt last week by taking advantage of miscues, and Pitts defense gave up over 400 yards rushing against them.

Take Duke and the points. Live Dog here that bites!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Kentucky vs. Missouri

Bonus Play Kentucky

I'm recommending a play on Kentucky plus the points over Missouri. The Wildcats rebounded nicely last weekend against Mississippi State and came up just a little short. QB Patrick Towles had a big game and the 'Cats out-schemed the Bulldog secondary. Yes, eventually, the defense has to get better against the run for marked and lasting improvement within the SEC, but I don't believe Mizzou is going to give them a ton of trouble. With the way Maty Mauk has been slumping, we suspect Kentucky will be able to "help out" against the run and force Mauk to beat them with his arm. Mauk will hang some passes and that's not wise against a Kentucky defense that's one of the best in the nation at intercepting opponent's passes. Last weekend, the Tigers actually ran the ball pretty well, but Mauk still completed just 11-of-23 passes. Offensively, Kentucky averages over 426 yards per game, while scoring over 31 ppg. They'll bring confidence to the gridiron after giving top-ranked Mississippi State a run for their money one week ago. We're 2-0 ATS in games involving Mizzou this season, including a winner with Georgia in a 34-0 blowout victory over the Tigers on this field. We'll go against Mizzou again. I'm recommending a play on Kentucky plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Florida vs. Georgia

Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #359 Take Florida Gators over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS)

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has lost most of its luster with Florida falling off a cliff and will likely have a new coach at the end of the season. But that being said I expect them to put forth a solid effort this week and this is one of the few games they have left on their schedule that will get national exposure. Georgia has won five straight games against bad teams but is still without their best player in Todd Gurley. Expect Treon Harris to start at quarterback for the Gators as he gives them the best chance to move the football. Doc’s Sports is coming off a monster week in football highlighted by a perfect 4-0 performance in the NFL and a pair of blowout top play winners. Now is the time to jump on board with a veteran handicapper of 43 years. Doc’s Sports Mountain West Game of the Year goes this Saturday and you can purchase this selection right here, right now!

 

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Stephen Nover

Florida vs. Georgia

Bonus Play Florida

First note this game is being played in Jacksonville, a somewhat neutral site.

Next note that Georgia has beaten only one SEC team, Missouri, that has an above .500 record in the SEC. The Bulldogs other four league games have been against South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Those teams are a combined 2-17 in the SEC. One of those wins was South Carolina's victory against Georgia.

Next note that Georgia still will be without suspended star running back Todd Gurley. He won't be eligible to return until Nov. 15.

Florida was idle last week after losing in embarrassing fashion to Missouri at home, 42-13. That score is highly misleading, though. Missouri scored a combined four touchdowns on interception touchdown returns and special teams touchdowns.

There is nothing wrong with Florida's defense. It's good. The Gators hold foes under 26 points a game and to fewer than 318 yards per game. They've forced 16 turnovers in six games.

The key here is Florida finally has had enough of Jeff Driskel, who has been dreadful. The Trevon Harris era is now upon us and it should give the Gators a spark because the freshman is a big-time athlete, who can throw and run.

This is a monster rivalry game and Florida coach Will Muschamp is coaching for his job. The Gators certainly won't lack motivation and with a tough defense and the right quarterback they will make this game very interesting.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Duke vs. Pittsburgh

Free College Football (323) Duke+ over Pittsburgh @ 12:00 Eastern

Early Saturday afternoon hot Duke (6-1) visits the Pitt Panthers (4-4) who last week were thrashed at home by Georgia Tech 56-28. Tech led 28-0 in the “first quarter” and glided the rest of the way for the blowout. Interesting the Panthers put 526 yards on the board offensively, and still loss. The Blue Devils show in a more positive state of mind after a bye and back-to-back conference wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia. One of the overlooked strengths for Duke this season has been their -5 TOs versus +13 in the takeaway category. Add that to an improved defense (15.1) and an overall balanced offense it’s easy to see they have a legit shot at returning to the ACC Championship game.

Techs have the Blue Devils covering 4 straight in the month of November, while on a very high note 10-2-1 ATS record on grass surfaces. Pitt, on the other hand, has been tardy at home vs. the Vegas Brain Trust at 2-5 ATS of late, and 1-4-1 ATS L6 overall. Sunday night openers had Duke -1, and if you have been focusing too much on the World Series the Panthers went to -4 on Monday, -3 ½ as we write. No doubt we still like the Blue Devils plus the points, but you might check out the money line on game day for a possible value entry. Good Luck!

 

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Bill Biles

Purdue vs. Nebraska

Free Pick= Nebraska -23.5

Nebraska has the chance to score over 50 points in this one, and I think they will. Purdue's defense still lacks the play makers to slow Ameer Abdullah in this one. Kenny Bell will also have a big game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug Upstone

Utah vs. Arizona State

Bonus Play Arizona State

Here is a easy to understand Bonus Play. Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Utah off two straight wins against conference rivals, against opponent off a double digit road win. Here we are looking at home team like Arizona State getting a lot of resolve off their impressive away victory and that carries over into the next game. In the last 10 years, teams like Utah are 9-41 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

Air Force vs. Army

Bonus Play Air Force

A win here by the Falcons and they clinch the Commander In Chief Trophy. So obviously this is a key game for both squads. Air Force is coming in off an uncharacteristic season a year ago and have righted the ship and likely saving the coaches job. Army has a new coach and hasn't made up any ground thus far, remaining the third best military football program. A loss at lowly Kent State two weeks ago solidified that thinking. While the Black Knights are coming in off a bye we can't trust this team to win this game outright. Air Force smells the CIC Trophy and wins it with a touchdown victory. PLAY AIR FORCE