NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall
Saturday, November 1
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md)
Navy has covered 3 of last 5 meetings and 12 of last 20 vs. Irish. Mids 18-9 as dog for Niumatalolo since 2009.
Navy, based on team trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH
Beamer on 15-32-1 spread run since late 2010. BC has covered last three meetings, and Eagles have covered 4 of last 6 this season.
BC, based on team and series trends.
EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE
ECU no covers last three after 4-0 break vs. gate vs. spread. Pirates 1-5 last six as visiting chalk. But Owls no covers last three TY after 11-5 spread run prior.
Slight to Temple, based on team trends.
UCF at UCONN
Diaco 1-6 vs. lint TY, though Huskies had been 8-1 as Rentsch dog 2011-13. UCF only 1-5 last six as chalk away from Orlando.
Slight to UConn, base don extended trends.
WISCONSIN at RUTGERS
Wiscy 3-7 vs. line last 10 since late 2013. 'Gers 14-6 last 20 as dog (8-4 for Flood since 2012).
Rutgers, based on recent trends.
NC STATE at SYRACUSE
Pack a bit back and forth vs. line TY but still no SU ACC wins, now 0-12 SU in league play for Doeren. But Pack is 2-1 vs. line away TY and gets points here. Cuse only 3-5 vs. spread last 8 at Carrier Dome.
NC State, based on recent trends.
DUKE at PITTSBURGH
Cutcliffe 5-2 vs. line TY, 15-5-1 since 2013, 7-2-1 last 10 away. Lost high-scoring 58-55 shootout vs. Pitt LY.
Duke, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at PENN STATE
These teams used to regularly meet long ago, now reunited in an interesting twist to Big Ten expansion. James Franklin 4-3 vs. line in 2014 after 25-14 spread mark previous three years at Vandy. Terps 7-4 as visiting dog since 2012.
Slight to PSU, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA
Heels closed 7-1 vs. line LY after dropping first five vs. number and are in same pattern this season, now three covers in a row after five spread Ls to open season! Visiting dog has covered this game the past two years. Canes have covered last three at home after dropping previous four vs. spread as host.
UNC, based on team trends.
GEORGIA STATE at APPALACHIAN STATE
GSU 7-1 vs. line on road since 2013, also 12-3 last 16 as DD dog.
GSU, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at ARMY
Falcs reclaim Commander in Chief's Trophy with win here. Falcs have won and covered 7 of last 8 trips to Michie, though did lose last visit in 2012. Force 13-4 vs. spread last 17 vs. West Point. Black Knights 7-4 last 11 as Michie dog but 0-1 in role TY.
Air Force, based on series trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN
CMU has won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Enos 4-0 as visiting chalk since 2012 (0-0 TY).
CMU, based on team and series trends.
NORTHWESTERN at IOWA
Home team has won and covered last four meetings. After brief rally, NU has lost and failed to cover last two, putting pat Fitz 2-5 vs. line TY and 3-13 last 16 since early 2013. NU 12-4 as visiting dog 2008-12 but 2-3 in role since. Ferentz, however, only 1-3 vs. line at Iowa City TY and 5-11 as home chalk since 2012.
Slight to NU, based on extended trends.
TEXAS at TEXAS TECH
Horns have won SU last five meetings. TT 1-5-1 last seven vs. spread at home.
Texas, based on team and series trends.
PURDUE at NEBRASKA
Purdue has quietly surged, covering last three and five of last six this season. Boilermakers have also covered last four away from Ross-Ade. Bo Pelini 6-2 vs. line TY and 12-7 as Lincoln chalk since 2012 (3-1 TY, but 3-4 LY).
Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.
KANSAS at BAYLOR
Jayhawks unbeaten vs. line in three since Weis dismissed, but have been crushed last two years by Baylor. Briles 19-3 vs. spread as host since 2011.
Baylor, based on team trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO
Phenom WMU now 8-0 vs. line in 2014. Miami 5-9-1 last 14 vs. points at Yager.
WMU, based on team trends.
AUBURN at OLE MISS
Auburn has won and covered 4 of last 5 vs. Ole Miss, but Hugh Freeze now 7-1 SU and vs. line TY and 33-12-1 vs. spread since 2011. Malzahn 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY.
Ole Miss, based on team trends.
KENTUCKY at MISSOURI
Tigers have won and covered in similar comfy fashion past two years. Pinkel, however, just 1-4 vs. line as host TY.
Slight to UK, based on recent trends.
ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE
MSU 6-1 vs. line TY and 11-1 last 12 since late 2013. Mullen has won and covered last two years vs. Arkansas. Hogs 6-1 last 7 vs. line TY
MSU, based on team and recent series trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at LA TECH
WKU 2-4 vs. line last five TY, La Tech 5-2 vs. spread in 2014.
LT, based on recent trends.
UL-MONROE at TEXAS A&M
Ags having a rough go with four straight spread Ls and 1-5 vs. line last six TY. A&M on 4-12 spread slide since mid 2013, only 4-4 vs. line. But ULM only 0-5-1 vs. spread last five TY. Warhawks 1-4-1 last six as DD dog.
Slight to ULM, based on extended A&M spread woes.
BYU at MTSU
Cougs no SU wins last four TY and no covers last six TY. Though Stockstill 3-1 vs. line at Johnny Floyd Stadium TY and covers last three as home dog.
MTSU, based on recent trends.
TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA
Revenge for Spurrier after loss at Knoxville LY but Cocks only 2-6 vs. spread in 2014. Vols have covered last two meetings.
Slight to UT, based on recent SC struggles.
FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville)
Richt on march with big wins and covers last two, both away from Athens. Richt 2-0-1 vs. line last three vs. Muschamp. Muschamp 2-4 vs. line TY, ,6-17-1 last 24 on board since mid 2012, 13-26-1 last 40 since early 2011.
Georgia, based on team trends.
USC at WASHINGTON STATE
Leach beat SC 10-7 LY at Coliseum and also covered last two years vs. U-Dub and Sark. Trojans 3-12 vs. line last 15 as visitor (1-3 TY).
WSU, based on team trends.
STANFORD at OREGON
Cards have won and covered last two vs. Ducks. Tree 5-0-1 as dog since 2011 for Shaw, though no covers last four away from Palo Alto. Ducks have now won and covered last three in 2012 after 1-10 reg.-season spread run.
Stanford, based on team and recent series trends.
OKLAHOMA at IOWA STATE
Stoops no covers last three in 2014 and just 2-4 last six as chalk away from Norman. OU has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. ISU and Cyclones haven't won SU in series since 1990! Prior to that it was 1961! ISU quietly surging with 5-1-1 spread mark last six this season and 4-0-1 as dog.
ISU, based on recent trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at KANSAS STATE
Home team has won SU last three meetings but Bill Snyder has covered all of those three. Snyder 14-6 vs. spread last 19 at Manhattan and 31-14-1 overall vs. line since 2011. Gundy 0-4-1 vs. line last five TY.
K-State, based on Bill Snyder trends.
INDIANA at MICHIGAN
Wolverines also 6-5 as home chalk since 2013 (2-3 TY), and Hoke 15-16-1 last 32 on board. Hoosiers 2-7 vs. line last nine as visitor (1-2 TY).
Michigan, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH
Cavs no covers last 3 TY after five straight Ws vs. line to open campaign. Home team 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series. GT just 1-3 vs. line as host TY after 9-4 home chalk mark past two seasons.
Slight GT, based on series trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at IDAHO
Ark State was 5-1 vs. line prior to ULL loss. Red Wolves 7-3 last 10 as visiting chalk. Idaho has covered last three TY and is 5-2 vs. line in 2014, though only 1-2 vs. spread at Kibbie TY and now 2-11 vs. spread as host since 2012.
Ark State, based on team trends.
SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-LAFAYETTE
Cajuns might be turned around with back-to-back impressive wins and covers after dropping four straight vs. line. But road warrior USA has won and covered all three as visitor this season and is 7-2 vs. spread on road since 2013.
USA, based on Jag road marks.
ODU at VANDERBILT
Vandy back to the Bobby Johnson-type teams TY, poor chalk (0-3 at home in role) after succeeding under James Franklin past three years.
ODU, based on recent Vandy home chalk woes.
RICE at FIU
Rice on 19-9 spread uptick since mid 2012 and has covered last 4 and 5 of 6 this season. FIU improved and had covered 6 of 7 prior to Marshall loss. Rice 8-3 vs. spread last 11 as visitor.
Rice, based on extended trends.
WASHINGTON at COLORADO
Mike M 4-0 vs. line at Boulder TY and 8-2 vs. spread at Folsom Field since arriving at CU in 2013. Though Huskies have won and covered big last three meetings.
CU, based on home marks.
CAL at OREGON STATE
Dykes 3-0 vs. line on road (all as dog) this season. Beavs just 2-7 vs. spread last nine at Corvallis, though Riley has won and covered last two and 6 of last 7 vs. Bears.
Cal, based on recent trends.
ARIZONA at UCLA
Mora has won and covered last two vs. Rodriguez (it was 66-10 in 2012) but Bruins only 1-7 vs. spread in 2014 and no covers in three tries at home. Bruins also no covers last four at Rose Bowl since late 2013.
Arizona, based on recent UCLA woes.
COLORADO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE
SJSU has won and covered the last three years vs. CSU but Rams are on 18-7 spread uptick for McElwain, 9-2 vs. line last 11 away from Fort Collins.
Slight to SJSU, based on series trends.
UTAH at ARIZONA STATE
ASU 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. line last three years vs. Utes, and Graham 6-3 as Pac-12 home chalk since 2012. Utes 3-0 vs. line away this season.
Slight to ASU, based on series trends.
TCU at WEST VIRGINIA
These teams have played OT games the past two seasons. Frogs are 7-0 vs. line in 2014 (2-0 away). Holgorsen 1-1 as home dog TY and 2-3 in role since last season.
Slight to TCU, based on team trends.
HOUSTON at SOUTH FLORIDA
Cougs 2-0 vs. line away TY and have covered eight straight as visitor dating to late 2012. USF HC Taggart 19-8 as dog (WKU & USF) since 2011.
UH, based on team trends.
UAB at FAU
FAU has won and covered last three meetings (2010-121-13). Owls now 3-0 vs. line at Boca Raton TY and 6-1 last seven vs. line as host. UAB has dropped 4 of last 6 vs. line.
FAU, based on team and series trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP
Improved USM three straight covers on road. UTEP 3-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY.
Slight to USM, based on recent trends.
NEW MEXICO at UNLV
Hauck 3-1 SU and vs. line vs. Lobos. But Hauck just 5-8 as chalk with Rebs. Road team is 7-0 vs. line in UNM games TY, and Lobos 6-1 last seven as road dog.
UNM, based on recent trends.
TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE
Aggies 3-0 vs. line in Las Cruces TY and have covered five straight at home (and last four as home dog) since late 2013. Franchione 2-5 last seven as chalk.
NMSU, based on team trends.
ILLINOIS at OHIO STATE
Illini no SU wins over Bucks since 2007. Illini covered as road dog at Wiscy but was 1-9 in role for Beckman in ten previous tries (since 2012).
OSU, based on recent trends.
WYOMING at FRESNO STATE
FSU crushed Wyo past two years. Wyo on 4-12 spread slide since early 2013.
FSU, based on team and series trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA
Aztecs have won and covered wild games the past two years, both in OT. Rocky Long 7-2 last nine vs. line on MW road. Pack 3-7 vs. line last 9 as MW host.
Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at HAWAII
Home team 7-1 vs. line in Hawaii games TY. Chow 9-4 vs. spread last 13 in Honolulu.
Slight to UH, based on team trends.
