Saturday's Top Action
FLORIDA GATORS (3-3) vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (6-1)
Line & Total: Georgia -13, Total: 51
No. 9 Georgia looks to stay on top of the SEC East standings when it takes on a struggling Florida team at Everbank Field in Jacksonville.
The Gators have done well against lesser opponents this year but have not able to contend with some of the tougher competition that they face as part of the toughest conference in college football. They are just 1-4 ATS in SEC play and have surrendered 114 points in three conference defeats. In Florida's last contest on Oct. 18, the school was actually favored by seven points over visiting Missouri, but suffered a 42-13 loss. The defense actually held the Tigers to a meager 119 yards of total offense that day, but turned the ball over six times (two returned for touchdowns), while also allowing Missouri to score 2 TD on special teams.
The Bulldogs have not had quite as tough of a schedule as some of the other teams in their division and are 4-3 ATS so far while taking one SU loss when they were defeated by South Carolina early in the season. They headed to Arkansas as three-point favorites in their last game on Oct. 18 and left with a nice 45-32 victory. They had a 38-6 lead at the half in the contest as they totaled 386 yards of offense for the game and forced four turnovers while not turning the ball over themselves for the fourth time this year.
Georgia has won this neutral-field matchup in each of the past three seasons (2-1 ATS). In 2013, the team escaped with a 23-20 victory, but failed to cover a 3.5-point spread despite a 23-3 halftime lead. Bettors should know that the Gators are 34-17 ATS (67%) after a two-game homestand since 1992 while the Bulldogs are 36-30 ATS (55%) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the same timeframe. Injuries will not affect Florida in this contest while HB Keith Marshall (ankle) is questionable and HB Todd Gurley (suspension) has been ruled out until mid-November for Georgia.
Florida’s offense has sputtered all season and ranks 76th in FBS scoring (28.7 PPG), 94th in passing (198.5 YPG) and 61st in rushing (169.5 YPG). Freshman QB Treon Harris (263 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) will be getting the start over Jeff Driskel who had nine interceptions over his past four games. Harris was solid in his last game on Oct. 18, completing 8-of-12 passes for 98 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT while also picking up 26 yards and a score on eight carries. HB Matt Jones (424 rush yards, 3 TD) has been the lead back for the team but has averaged a mere eight attempts over the past two games. WR Demarcus Robinson (524 rec yards, 4 TD) is the one real factor in the passing game and has three performances where he went over the century mark while averaging 15.4 yards per catch. The defense has not been much better, allowing 25.5 PPG to its opponents while actually ranking 12th in the nation in total defense (317.3 YPG). LB Antonio Morrison (52 tackles, 1 INT, 4.5 TFL) and DB Keanu Neal (33 tackles, 3 INT) have been solid as the leaders of this defense.
Georgia has scored many of its 43.4 PPG (9th in nation) with a fierce rushing attack (265.9 YPG, 15th in FBS) while not doing much through the air (171.3 YPG, 112th in nation). QB Hutson Mason (1,022 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has been extremely efficient with minimal turnovers and has hit on 69.2% of his passes for a low 7.0 YPA. He is not much of a runner, but has been able to get in near the end zone, scoring four times with his legs. With HB Todd Gurley suspended, HB Nick Chubb (569 rush yards, 5 TD) has stepped up in the past two games with 345 rushing yards on 68 attempts (5.1 YPC) while getting into the end zone three times. WRs Chris Conley (336 rec yards, 3 TD) and Michael Bennett (231 rec yards, 4 TD) have been the top targets through the air with Conley averaging an impressive 17.7 yards per catch. While their offense has been impressive, their defense has done just as well, allowing 20.0 PPG to their opposition (19th in FBS) behind the huge efforts of LBs Amarlo Herrera (57 tackles, 3 sacks) and Ramik Wilson (55 tackles, 5.5 TFL).
TCU HORNED FROGS (6-1) at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (6-2)
Line & Total: TCU -5.5, Total: 72.5
No. 20 West Virginia looks to continue its surprise start to the season when it hosts No. 10 TCU on Saturday.
Last season, these two schools played an exciting game, with West Virginia recording a 30-27 overtime victory. The Horned Frogs were able to gain nearly 500 yards of offense, but the Mountaineers were able to force four turnovers to help earn the victory. TCU is a different team this season, in large part because of the improved play of QB Trevone Boykin. The Horned Frogs are coming off a game in which they scored 82 points against Texas Tech. TCU is 7-0 ATS when scoring at least 28 points this season, while West Virginia is only 5-14 ATS the past three seasons when giving up at least 28 points.
The Mountaineers were supposed to be down again this season, but the team has been one of the biggest surprises in college football. They have only two losses this season, and they are to Alabama and Oklahoma. Since the loss to the Sooners, WVU is 4-0 SU with 33+ points in each of the four victories. Both teams got good news about star offensive players this week, as both TCU WR Josh Doctson (foot) and WVU RB Rushel Shell (ankle) have been upgraded to probable.
TCU leads the nation in scoring (50.4 PPG), while ranking sixth in FBS passing (360.1 YPG) and 35th in rushing (212.9 YPG). The offense has been tremendous this season, in large part because of the performance from QB Trevone Boykin (2,306 pass yards, 374 rush yards, 24 total TD). He has always had the ability to make plays with his legs, but now he is becoming more consistent throwing the ball. He still does not complete a great percentage of his throws (58.7%), but he has limited the mistakes that have hurt him early in his career, tossing only 3 INT all season. Last week against Texas Tech, he threw for 433 yards and seven touchdowns. RB B.J. Catalon (78 carries, 388 yards, 8 TD) has shown to be a strong rusher out of the backfield, making the read-option very difficult to stop. WRs Josh Doctson (35 catches, 573 yards, 7 TD), Deante Gray (27 catches, 431 yards, 6 TD) and Kolby Listenbee (22 catches, 494 yards, 3 TD) are all capable of taking over the game at the wideout position.
While most teams have one cornerback that can slow down an opponent’s top receiver, very few teams have the secondary depth to stop TCU. Boykin has done a nice job of finding the mismatch and making them pay. The Frogs defense ranks 29th in FBS scoring defense (21.6 PPG allowed), and has shown the ability to make the big play. Paul Dawson (79 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks, 3 FR, 2 INT) is all over the field on defense, and is a guy the quarterback has to know where he is at every play. Dawson helps out in the run, but he can also guard the running back out of the backfield. S Chris Hackett (51 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 TFL) is a very important guy in this game, as he is going to be matched up against one of the best receivers in the country in Kevin White.
West Virginia is ninth in the nation in passing this year (346.1 YPG), 23rd in scoring (36.9 PPG) and 51st in rushing (180.9 YPG). Quarterback Clint Trickett (2,763 pass yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) has become a star in the Big 12, and is the biggest reason why the Mountaineers are off to such a terrific start. His favorite target is WR Kevin White (72 catches, 1,047 yards, 8 TD, who is a threat all over the field. He not only makes tough catches over the middle, but has the speed to catch the deep route on the outside. With the presence of WR Mario Alford (45 catches, 600 yards, 6 TD), defenses are not able to double-team White on the outside. While the passing game gets a lot of the talk, the ground game has been solid as well this year. RBs Rushel Shell (114 carries, 503 yards, 6 TD) and Wendell Smallwood (100 carries, 476 yards, 1 TD) have both done a nice job of forcing defenses to keep an extra guy in the box to stop the run. They also are very good when it comes to pass blocking, allowing Trickett more time to find an open receiver.
The defense ranks 55th in the nation in scoring defense (25.0 PPG), but it is much improved compared to the past two seasons. LB Nick Kwiatkoski (62 tackles, 9 TFL, 2 PD) is the leading tackler on the team, making his presence felt in the backfield. The best player on the unit is S Karl Joseph (60 tackles, 2 TFL), who has been a star from day one of his freshman year, and is now not having to make as many tackles as he did in the previous two seasons. This has allowed him to roam around a little bit more, using his speed to make quarterbacks hesitant to take a risk.
STANFORD CARDINAL (5-3) at OREGON DUCKS (7-1)
Line & Total: Oregon -7.5, Total: 54.4
No. 5 Oregon looks for some revenge on Saturday night when it hosts an unranked Stanford team that has had the upper hand in this series recently.
Last year, the Cardinal picked up a home victory against the Ducks, winning, 26-20. The biggest reason why Stanford was able to get the victory was because it dominated time of possession (42:34) by carrying the football 66 times for 274 yards, keeping Oregon's terrific offense on the sidelines. The Cardinal also won their last trip to Eugene in 2012 keeping the ball for 37:05 in a 17-14 victory. Stanford (4-4 ATS) has alternated wins and losses in each of its past five games, bouncing back from a 26-10 loss at Arizona State on Oct. 18 with a convincing 38-14 victory over Oregon State last week. The defense, which has played tremendous all season long, dominated Beavers star QB Sean Mannion, allowing him to complete only 14-of-30 passes for 122 yards (4.1 YPA).
For the Cardinal, who are 6-0 ATS as an underdog under head coach David Shaw, to pick up a third straight win in this series, the defense will once again have to be on top of its game. Since their lone season loss to Arizona, the Ducks (4-4 ATS) offense has been tremendous during a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) with 48.7 PPG and 537 total YPG broken down nicely into 291 passing YPG and 247 rushing YPG. Oregon scored 56 points against California last week, and is 7-0 ATS in the past two seasons after scoring at least 50 points, winning these games by a margin of 52 to 17. Stanford has a couple of defensive injury concerns with DB Ra'Chard Pippens (undisclosed) and DL David Parry (leg) both considered questionable, while Oregon's only recent injury is a WR Keanon Lowe, who is questionable with a bad hamstring.
Stanford has struggled on offense this season, ranking 91st in the nation in scoring (25.8 PPG), 93rd in rushing (141.3 YPG) and 63rd in passing (241.5 YPG). The Cardinal have been able to defeat the Ducks the past two games because of their ability to rush the ball, averaging 237 rushing yards per game against Oregon in the past two seasons. However, the offense has really struggled to run the ball, putting more of the pressure on QB Kevin Hogan (1,814 pass yards, 13 TD and 6 INT). Hogan is at his best when the Cardinal are running the ball, allowing him to use the play-action fake. RB Remound Wright (69 carries, 326 yards, 2 TD) and Barry Sanders (40 carries, 290 yards, 7.3 YPC) will have to play much better than they have this season to help control the time of possession. If the Cardinal are able to establish the running game, that could open up big plays for speedy WR Ty Montgomery (49 catches, 514 yards, 3 TD). Montgomery is one of the elite receivers in the country, as his speed allows him to get behind the defense.
While the offense has not been as good as it has in the past, the defense has continued to be one of the best in the country. The unit currently ranks second in the nation in points allowed (12.5 PPG allowed) and has given up a meager 251 total YPG (3.7 yards per play). Linebackers Blake Martinez (60 tackles, 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and A.J. Tarpley (53 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks) are one of the best duos in the country, as they roam all over the field. LB Peter Kalambayi (21 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) does a great job of getting after the quarterback. The Cardinal do a tremendous job of tacking and not allowing the big plays to open up. That will once again be a key, as the Ducks have the playmakers to score from anywhere on the field.
Entering Saturday’s game, the Ducks ranks fifth in FBS scoring (45.5 PPG), 16th in passing (311.8 YPG) and 28th in rushing (223.1 YPG). The offense starts with one guy, and that is QB Marcus Mariota (2,283 pass yards, 235 rush yards, 29 total TD). What separates Mariota is how well he does at limiting mistakes (1 INT all season), while also completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. Joining Mariota in the backfield is freshman RB Royce Freeman (136 carries, 748 yards, 13 TD). At 230 pounds, Freeman is a great combination of size and speed, making him very difficult to bring down. However, it is not a one-man show, as RB Thomas Tyner (66 carries, 279 yards, 1 TD) and WR Byron Marshall (37 carries, 306 yards, 1 TD) both have the ability to break off long gainers. Marshall is also the leading receiver on the team (38 catches, 521 yards, 4 TD), while WR Devon Allen (27 catches, 487 yards, 6 TD) is a speedster who can take it the distance on any given night. These two will be counted upon more, as WR Keanon Lowe (17 catches, 266 yards, 4 TD) may be out due to a hamstring injury.
The Ducks defense enters the game ranked 61st in the country in points allowed (25.9 PPG) and has surrendered 462 total YPG. DB Erick Dargan (53 tackles, 7 PD, 4 INT) is a star in the secondary, as he does a nice job of stopping both the run and pass. He will play a big role in this game, as he will be seeing a lot of time covering Montgomery. LB Derrick Malone (50 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 fumble recovery) is key in stopping the run, and will have to do that against a Stanford team that is struggling to rush the football.
AUBURN TIGERS (6-1) at OLE MISS REBELS (7-1)
Line & Total: Ole Miss -1.5, Total: 51
In another huge SEC matchup with playoff implications, No. 4 Auburn heads to Oxford on Saturday to take on No. 7 Ole Miss.
It’s been another big year for SEC teams, and it has been no different for the Tigers, as they have been putting up some gaudy offensive numbers despite going a mere 3-4 ATS. They have faced three ranked opponents thus far and were victors against both Kansas State (20-14) and LSU (41-7) while taking a 38-23 loss against No. 1 Mississippi State as three-point favorites in their lone defeat. Last week, they played in a barnburner with South Carolina and narrowly avoided a big upset as an 18-point favorite. Auburn secured a 42-35 victory thanks to three interceptions while the offense ran for an amazing 395 yards on 8.4 YPC. Ole Miss has surprised many with its success this season, defeating its first seven opponents both SU and ATS while having an average margin of victory of 24.9 PPG. The Rebels' flawless season ended last week though, as they fell at LSU by a score of 10-7. Despite the low score, these two teams actually combined for some big yardage (719 total yards). While the Rebels forced four turnovers in Baton Rouge, they were unable to convert when it mattered, as QB Bo Wallace threw a pass that was picked off at the 1-yard line with just nine seconds left on the clock.
The home team has won SU in six of the past seven meetings between these programs while being 5-2 ATS. Auburn is 5-2 SU in that time and was able to pull out a solid 30-22 victory as a two-point underdog last season. The Tigers dominated in the rushing game with 282 yards (5.9 YPC) as they held off a big passing attack (340 yards) behind the arm of Wallace in the contest. Some trends that bettors should know include that Auburn is a solid 10-1 ATS when coming off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons while Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS when playing on turf this year. On the injury front, the Tigers have no significant players missing from their lineup, but the Rebels defense could be thin with DB Cody Prewitt (undisclosed) and DL Robert Nkemdiche (undisclosed) listed as questionable while LB Denzel Nkemdiche (ankle) is out for the year.
Auburn has been one of the most explosive offensive teams in the nation all season long, scoring the 15th-most points (39.3 PPG) behind an amazing ground game (281 rush YPG) which ranks 10th in the nation. QB Nick Marshall (1,103 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) has done well with ball control while throwing the pigskin more than 19 times in just three of his seven games. The real threat comes from his legs, as he has gone for 581 yards (6.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns on the ground while getting over the century mark four different times. He is not the only threat in this big running offense as HB Cameron Artis-Payne (831 rush yards, 6 TD) has had at least 20 carries in 5-of-7 games while cracking 100 yards five times. He also has eight catches for 99 yards. The big target through the air is WR D’haquille Williams (527 rec yards, 5 TD) who is the only wideout on the team with more than 15 receptions (34) and has averaged a solid 15.5 yards per catch while having three big performances of 100 yards or more. Their defense also ranks fairly high (25th in nation) while allowing 20.7 PPG, but has given up a robust 36.5 PPG to their past two SEC opponents. DB Jonathan Ford (48 tackles, 2 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (46 tackles, 6.5 TFL) hope they can improve their scoring defense on Saturday afternoon.
Ole Miss plays a much different offensive game than its opponent, as it does most of its work through the air (268.8 YPG, 37th in FBS) while still being solid in the run game (149.5 YPG, 83rd in nation) and has scored 31.9 PPG (50th in FBS). QB Bo Wallace (2,075 pass yards, 18 Ts, 7 INT) has been the key component on this side of the ball and had gone three consecutive games without throwing a pick before his late interception at LSU. He has also had at least 11 rushing attempts in each of the past four games while averaging 38.8 YPG running in that time with two scores. Joining him in the backfield will be HB Jaylen Walton (376 rush yards, 4 TD) who has not run the ball more than 12 times or for more than 90 yards in any one game this season, but has averaged 5.3 YPC plus 13 catches for 160 yards and 2 TD. WR Laquon Treadwell (529 rec yards, 4 TD) leads the team with 38 receptions while both 6-foot-1 WR Vince Sanders (431 rec yards, 4 TD) and 6-foot-3 WR Cody Core (390 rec yards, 5 TD) are big red-zone targets. The defense for the Rebels ranks as the best in the conference while allowing just 10.5 PPG to their opponents behind the strong play of DB Senquez Golson (23 tackles, 8 INT), DB Tony Connor (47 tackles, 1 INT, 5.5 TFL) and DE Marquis Haynes (20 tackles, 6.5 sacks).
