Saturday 10/11/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Tulsa vs. Temple

Bonus Play Temple (120) over Tulsa @ 12:00 Eastern

This is an AAC game Saturday in Philadelphia. The Philly Owls come in with a HUGE EDGE being off last week, while the Golden Hurricanes were smacked around by Colorado State 42-17 in a game that saw the Rams sprint out to a 28-7 lead at half-time. Colorado State amassed 532 yards of offense against the smaller Tulsa squad. Tulsa shows 1-4 SU & ATS with Temple 3-1 SU & ATS. Temple’s only loss (we called right here) was against running Navy 31-24. In their three wins the Owls average point differential was 38.3 per game. Both Temple and Tulsa are 1-0 in conference.

Where Tulsa will lose this game is on defense as they are allowing 42.4 points per game ranked #107 out of 124 teams in the nation. The Golden Hurricanes are 76th in offense scoring at 23.4 points per game. They have averaged over 133 yards per game on the ground. But, will need a successful day controlling the ball against the Temple defense, as the Owls offense has big strike capabilities with QB P. J. Walker. The stat sheet shows Temple scoring at a 37+ point per game average. In closing the last three seasons that Tulsa ended with a losing record, they rebounded with a winning season, not this time.

Temple show 21-8-1 ATS in October covering at a 10-2 clip L12 times out. Tulsa comes in 1-6 ATS vs. >.500 units, while losing 4 straight overall to the number. A word of caution, the line opened Sunday night at -12-1/2 Temple and shot quickly to -17 on Monday. There has been a buy back in Vegas today taking the line to 16-1/2. With Tulsa taking a long trip to the east coast with an early start to boot, Temple 37 Tulsa 17.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Auburn vs. Mississippi State

Bonus Play Auburn

I'm laying the points with the Auburn Tigers on Saturday afternoon. Mississippi State was our top premium play last weekend and we cashed in their blowout of Texas A&M. But while the front-seven on defense is fantastic, the Bulldog secondary is bad. In fact, they rank 126th against the pass. I believe Auburn, despite the fact they are a run-first team, can expose a little of the backfield deficiencies. Auburn's second half beatdown of Arkansas is more impressive now than it was when it happened and they annihilated LSU a week ago. I also expect MSU QB Dak Prescott to struggle against the quick Tiger defense. Running the ball two dozen times (like he did last weekend) against this defense will not be wise. Auburn enters on a 16-5 ATS run in their last 21, overall, and they're 10-1 ATS in their last 11 SEC games. One more in the win column. I'm laying the points with Auburn. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joseph D'Amico

Florida International vs. Texas-San Antonio

Bonus Play Florida International (Game 183)

FIU has won and covered their L2, both as a 'dog. The Golden Panthers are 5-1 ATS this season. They are doing it with defense, allowing opponents just 328.7 YPG and a mere 20.5 PPG. Their speedy stop-unit ranks 25th in the nation and will get to QB, Tucker, who has more INT' s than TD's (6/4). The Road Runners can not run the ball, ranking 109th on ground and post a lowly 21.8 PPG. This is a team that is on a 4-game skid, failing to cover their L3. Looking at their stats is deceiving because they own a great Time Of Possession rank and their overall numbers are very comparable to their opponents but TO's, penalties, and the fact that they just can't punch it in the end zone is the reason why this team is used as a doormat. The Golden Panther's are 6-2 ATS their L8 vs. losers and 6-1 ATS their L7 overall. The Road runners are 1-5 ATS their L6 following a SU loss and 1-6 ATS their L7 October games. Take FIU. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bill Biles

Texas vs. Oklahoma

Bonus Play Oklahoma -14

Oklahoma takes on Texas in one of the best rivalries in college football. Oklahoma coming off a loss to TCU is going to motivate them to come back strong. Texas defeated a favored Oklahoma team last year, so Oklahoma is on notice and will look to avenge that loss last year. I look for Oklahoma to play a solid game and win this one in big fashion.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doug Upstone

Middle Tennessee State vs. Marshall

Bonus Play Marshall

Play On college football favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Marshall, scoring 31 or more points a game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points. The logic to this Bonus Play is simple, this type of favorite knows how to win big and proven it. The can score ample points and play solid enough defense to open wide scoring differentials. In the last five years, these teams are a sensational 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Alexander

Auburn vs. Mississippi State

1 Unit NCAAF Free Pick Auburn

Mississippi Sate continues behind Prescott who has thrown for 13 touchdowns along with only 2 interceptions and averages 91 rushing yards per game. But Auburn comes in at 42.8 points per game in their last 13 games and are on a 13-2 ATS run (+154½ points ATS last 13). Mississippi State ranks 86th in total defense while Auburn ranks 14th.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Penn State vs. Michigan

Play - Penn State

Edges - Nittany Lions: 7-0 ATS as dogs off a double-digit ATS loss; and Franklin 9-3 ATS versus conference opponent off SU loss. Wolverines: 0-4 SUATS in this series, and 1-3 ATS last four as a host in this series. With UM coach Brady Hoke squarely on the hot season after his Wolverines have lost their last 10 games in a row to winning opponents, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Penn State. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Auburn vs. Mississippi State

*3 Star Auburn/Miss State Free Pick* Auburn

The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in Starkville. Mississippi State has certainly impressed in their last couple wins, but I'm not convinced that the teams they have beaten in those games are as good as most people believe. Texas A&M is overrated by many because of their opening game win over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks aren't very good this year. Mississippi State winning at LSU looks less impressive after Auburn absolutely crushed LSU last week. This year's LSU team just isn't good. Auburn and Mississippi State both have a ton on the line here, but I like the fact that Auburn has been here before. This is all foreign to Mississippi State and Auburn will be the best team they have played this year by a large margin. The Tigers running game is terrific and their defense is underrated. Lay the points with Auburn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Houston vs. Memphis

Free 2* Pick on Houston +7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Texas vs. Oklahoma

4* Texas

In a near statistically even game last week, Oklahoma lost a 37-33 shoot out to TCU. Combined with the 36-20 defeat at the hands of Texas last year, in which the Longhorns won the yardage battle 433 to 276, it gives Oklahoma all the incentive they need. Knowing Oklahoma HC Stoops is 10-3 ATS/loss and that his Sooners are on a 7-2 ATS run gives us plenty of fuel for the fire. Oklahoma, despite last week’s defeat, is still outscoring the opposition 42-21, while controlling the point of attack 209/5.4 to 110/3.1. The Sooners balance their attack with success in the airways 280/8.2. Combined with the situation, it provides us with all the ammunition necessary for a chalk selection with the Sooners. With Texas 2-3 SU ATS, the first time in over 20 years the Horns are under .500 entering this matchup, it looks like a no-brainer! Even the great defensive mind of first year Texas HC Strong could be hard-pressed to succeed in this challenge. After all, his Longhorns are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS as dog, including losses of 41-7 to BYU and 28-7 last week vs. Baylor. In that Baylor defeat, the Horns’ defense did hold the high-powered Bears to just 390 yards, while racking up 334 yards on their own. Nonetheless, the reality is Texas is averaging less than 14 PPG in the last month. The situation notwithstanding, I am favoring Texas as double digit rivalry dog, as the long-term 9-3 ATS dog log of HC Strong remains appealing as does the quickly improving Texas defense.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Penn State at Michigan 7:00PM

My Bonus Play is on Michigan at 7:00 ET.

I used Michigan (plus-3) last Saturday right here and escaped with a cover when the Wolverines lost 26-24 at Rutgers. I'm coming right back with "Big Blue" in this one, backing this beleaguered program and its "on the hot seat" head coach, Brady Hoke. Michigan?s woes have been well-documented but the Wolverines are not as bad as all that.

Michigan out-gained its first FOUR opponents and despite allowing Rutgers' Gary Nova to pass for 404 yards, lost by just TWO points on the road last Saturday.The much-maligned Devin Gardner wasn't bad at QB last week (13 of 22 passing for 178 yards plus 40 rush yards and two TDs). I expect more improvement this Saturday.

Yes, Penn State opened 4-0, but the Nittany Lions were fortunate to get past UCF (by two points) and Rutgers (by three points) plus no one gets too much credit for wins over Akron and UMass. Penn St was exposed as a pretender by Northwestern, getting held out of the end zone in a 29-6 loss two weeks ago.

A week off was likely good news but it's hard NOT to notice that SIX of Penn State's 12 TDs in 2014 came against UMass (2-28 since moving up to the FBS level). QB Christian Hackenberg is talented but his OL stinks and he REALLY misses WR Allen Robinson, who is now playing in the NFL.

Penn State prevailed 43-40 in a four-OT game last year in Happy Valley, which was the longest game in school history. That familiar refrain of 100,000 fans swapping "We are!" "Penn State!" chants, rained down on the Michigan players and the Penn St faithful (which have been through quite a lot these last few years), stormed the field in celebration after the contest.

That memory should give Michigan all the motivation it needs in a rare home night game and one "Big Blue" badly needs.

Good luck...Larry

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Texas at Oklahoma 12:00PM

5* Texas

Reason: 5* Play on Texas. Sooners and Longhorns are on opposite ends of the spectrum this season, with Texas struggling mightily this year while Oklahoma was in everyone's conversation for inclusion of the four-team playoff prior to last week's loss against TCU. Linesmakers know that Oklahoma will get the bulk of the betting action and have the Sooners as favorites of more than two touchdowns (as of this writing), however, it's this type of rivalry that tends to see the big underdog step up big time, and we'll take the generous points with Texas this Saturday.

Not necessarily calling for the Longhorns to win this game outright, but we do expect to see the best game yet out of Texas this afternoon and for the underdog to be the more motivated team. Sooners in an obvious letdown spot here after having their season dashed with last week's loss, and having to cover this big number may be too big a task. Remember, nobody gave Texas a chance last year as they lined up as big 13.5-point underdogs and won outright by 16 points! Texas battles tough and stays within two touchdowns here! 5* Play on Texas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Stoffo

Northwestern vs. Minnesota

3 Units Under 43.0/-105

Bonus Play - Northwestern at Minnesota Sucker total bet setting up here as the odds makers posted a super low total on this Wildcats/Golden Gophers Big Ten match-up, and the public have bet it up thru the week. Sharps will come in on the under in this spot as we get closer to kickoff. Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Wildcats last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 conference games. Under is 5-0-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games following a bye week. Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 home games. Plus let's not forget that Both starting quarterbacks have only 3 touchdown passes the entire season. Under this posted total the play here

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA College Football Betting Trends

Texas at Oklahoma, 12:00 ET
Texas: 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Oklahoma: 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half

Michigan State at Purdue, 3:30 ET
Michigan St: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents
Purdue: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9

Northwestern at Minnesota, 12:00 ET
Northwestern: 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off an upset win over a conference rival as a double digit underdog

Rice at Army, 12:00 ET
Rice: 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game
Army: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game

Tulsa at Temple, 12:00 ET
Tulsa: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games
Temple: 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders

Mid Tennessee State at Marshall, 12:00 ET
Mid Tenn St: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game
Marshall: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games

Massachusetts at Kent State, 2:00 ET
Mass: 2-9 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
Kent State: 1-5 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival

Florida State at Syracuse, 12:00 ET
Florida St: 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games
Syracuse: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival

Duke at Georgia Tech, 12:30 ET
Duke: 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday
Georgia Tech: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a home win against a conference rival

Illinois at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
Illinois: 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road lined games
Wisconsin: 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents

Boston College at North Carolina State, 3:30 ET
Boston College: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
N Carolina St: 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) as a favorite

Cincinnati at Miami Florida, 12:00 ET
Cincinnati: 3-10 UNDER after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games
Miami FL: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a conference game

Buffalo at Eastern Michigan, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9
E Michigan: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games

Miami at Akron, 2:00 ET
Miami: 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games
Akron: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after game with 50 or more pass attempts

Indiana at Iowa, 12:00 ET
Indiana: 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Iowa: 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite

Bowling Green at Ohio, 2:00 ET
Bowling Green: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Ohio: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after playing a conference game

West Virginia at Texas Tech, 12:00 ET
W Virginia: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Texas Tech: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game

Oklahoma State at Kansas, 4:00 ET
Oklahoma St: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival
Kansas: 68-100 ATS (-42.0 Units) after playing a conference game

TCU at Baylor, 3:30 ET
TCU: 7-17 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Baylor: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Houston at Memphis, 7:00 ET
Houston: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games
Memphis: 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

North Texas at UAB, 3:30 ET
N Texas: 17-7 OVER off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more
UAB: 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) as a favorite

Auburn at Mississippi State, 3:30 ET
Auburn: 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest
Miss St: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest

Western Michigan at Ball State, 3:00 ET
W Michigan: 1-5 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game
Ball State: 9-3 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

New Mexico State at Troy, 3:00 ET
New Mexico St: 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) off a home loss against a conference rival
Troy: 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Alabama at Arkansas, 6:00 ET
Alabama: 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Arkansas: 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

LSU at Florida, 3:30 ET
LSU: 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game
Florida: 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game

Toledo at Iowa State, 3:30 ET
Toledo: 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins
Iowa State: 7-18 UNDER as a home favorite

Oregon at UCLA, 3:30 ET
Oregon: 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) off a home loss
UCLA: 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a home underdog

USC at Arizona, 10:30 ET
USC: 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games
Arizona: 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders

Washington at California, 6:00 ET
Washington: 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) after playing a conference game
California: 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games

Georgia at Missouri, 3:30 ET
Georgia: 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
Missouri: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

Louisville at Clemson, 3:30 ET
Louisville: 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders
Clemson: 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents

N Carolina at Notre Dame, 3:30 ET
N Carolina: 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in the first half of the season
Notre Dame: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders

C Michigan at N Illinois, 5:00 ET
C Michigan: 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in road games after playing a game at home
N Illinois: 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9

Idaho at GA Southern, 5:00 ET
Idaho: 36-60 ATS (-30.0 Units) after playing a conference game
GA Southern: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games

Arkansas St at Georgia St, 2:00 ET
Arkansas St: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents
Georgia St: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

FLA International at UTSA, 7:00 ET
FLA International: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game
UTSA: 5-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game

LA Monroe at Kentucky, 12:00 ET
LA Monroe: 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in non-conference games
Kentucky: 1-6 UNDER after playing 3 straight conference games

Ole Miss at Texas A&M, 7:00 ET
Ole Miss: 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a home win against a conference rival
Texas A&M: 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored

Air Force at Utah State, 10:15 ET
Air Force: 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games after playing a non-conference game
Utah State: 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite

E Carolina at S Florida, 7:00 ET
E Carolina: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
S Florida: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

Penn State at Michigan, 7:00 ET
Penn State: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Michigan: 10-29 ATS (-21.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs

Old Dominion at UTEP, 8:00 ET
Old Dominion: 5-1 OVER after playing a game at home
UTEP: 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game

Connecticut at Tulane, 8:00 ET
Connecticut: 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games
Tulane: 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games after a loss by 21 or more points

Colorado St at Nevada, 10:30 ET
Colorado St: 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a win by 17 or more points
Nevada: 1-7 ATS in October games

Wyoming at Hawaii, 12:00 AM ET
Wyoming: 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game
Hawaii: 42-23 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Texas vs. Oklahoma October 11, 12:00 EST
Oklahoma Sooners will be heading into the Red River Showdown vs Texas Longhorns one angry and revenge minded bunch. Oklahoma not only suffered it's first blemish of the season losing 37-33 to TCU as 3.5 point faves, the Sooners got taken behind the woodshed in last years Red River Showdown losing 36-20 to Horns as 13.5 point favorites. Offensively challenged Horns (18.4 PPG) without QB David Ash won't be able to keep up with Sooners prolific offense racking up 42.4 PPG. Stoops' troops on a perfect 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS stretch following a loss outscoring opponents by a 30.8 points/game margin expect the Sooners to avenge last year's debacle against the Horns extending it's 3-1-1 ATS in this rivalry.

Louisville at Clemson October 11, 03:30 EST
Clemson Tigers racking up a whopping 40.4 points/game face a huge test this week when they host Bobby Petrino's troops one of the best defensive teams in the country surrendering a lowly 12.7 points/game. Tigers laying 9.5 points are in dangerous betting territory against this defensive minded squad. Tigers have been poor bets when scoring 40 or less points in regular season (2-7 ATS) and now face a Cardinal team that hasn't given up 40 points in twenty consecutive regular season games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Big 12 Showdown'

Undefeated TCU Horned Frogs (4-0 SU/ATS) and unblemished Baylor Bears (5-0, 4-0-1 ATS) square off at McLane Stadium in what should be a hard fought battle between two squads evenly match on both sides of the ball. Frogs lead by QB Trevone Boykin tally 42.8 PPG while Bears lead by signal caller Bryce Petty rack up a nation best 51.0 PPG. On the defensive side, Frogs give up 13.5 with Bears allowing 12.4 per/contest. This game being played in Waco, edge goes to the Bears who've won 12 straight home games including the first two at the brand new McLane Stadium. Baylor Bears given the nod by the betting market are spotting Horned Frogs 8.0 points. Now the question is who covers - The view from this end, take TCU in this evenly matched contest as Frogs have covered two straight, five of six in the series and hit the field 6-2 ATS on the road taking eight or less with Bears 3-4-1 ATS as home chalk in the same range.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday's games

Top games of week

Home side won last five Boston College-NC State ganes; faves covered five of last seven series games. BC lost three of last four visits to State, with 27-10/44-17 losses in last two., Four of last five series games were decided by 17+ points. Eagles covered once in last eight games as a road underdog; this is their first true road game this year. Wolfpack allowed 97 points in losing last two games (FSU/Clemson); they're 11-8 in last 19 games as home favorite, 0-2 this year.

Louisville is 5-1 against mostly stiffs; Miami (31-13) is best team they beat; Cardinals won last three games, allowing total of 19 points- they're 8-0 vs spread in last eight games as a road dog. This is first time they've been a dog in 2014. Clemson scored 91 points in winning last two games (UNC/NC State); they were held to 21-17 points in two losses, scored 41+ in three wins. Tigers are 5-2 in last seven games as home fave, 2-0 this year. Home favorites are 6-5 in ACC conference games.

Texas Tech lost its last three games, allowing 49-45-45 games; they have already fired their defensive coordinator, after allowing 438 rushing yards in home loss to Arkansas. Tech beat West Virginia 37-27/49-19 in their two Big X meetings, passing for 970 yards in two games. Best team that Tech has beaten is UTEP (30-26). WVU is 6-9-1 in last 16 games as road favorite, 2-3-1 under Holgorsen; they won only true road game this year, 40-37 (+3) at Maryland.

Texas (+12) upset Oklahoma 36-20 LY, after allowing 118 points in its previous two losses to Sooners; Longhorns lost three of last four games, scoring total of 54 points- only win was 23-0 at Kansas, and they fired their coach after the game. Texas is 5-9 in its last 14 games as underdog. Oklahoma is away from home for third straight game, allowing 70 points in last two true road games; Sooners are 9-5 in last 14 games as favorite. Favorites are 4-5 vs spread in Big X conference games.

Road team is 15-2 vs spread in last 17 Northwestern-Minnesota games, with Gophers covering seven of last nine. Wildcats lost last three visits here, by 8-1-7 points, but they beat Penn State/Wisconsin in last couple games, allowing total of 20 points. NW is 14-6 in last 20 games as road underdogs. Minnesota allowed total of 21 points in winning its last two games; their only loss is at TCU. Gophers are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year.

Underdogs covered eight of last nine USC-Arizona games; last seven in series were all decided by 7 or less points. Trojans won five of last six visits to Tucson, with last two decided by total of four points- dogs are 4-0 vs spread in last four played here. USC allowed 13 or less points in its three wins, 37-38 in losses to BC/ASU. Arizona is 5-0, winning last four games by 7 or less points while allowing 30 ppg. USC is 1-8 in its last nine games as a road favorite.

Oregon won last five games with UCLA, last four by 14+; Ducks won four of last visits to UCLA, but this is their first visit here since '09 and Bruins are way better now. Oregon allowed 439+ yards in each of last four games, 31 points each in last two games- they snuck by 38-31 (-23) in only road game, at Wazzu. UCLA allowed 10 sacks in 30-28 home loss to Utah last week- they're 17-9 in last 26 games as home underdog. Dogs are 10-2 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games this season.

Florida backup QB Harris rallied Gators to 10-9 win at Tennessee last week, then had off-field issue that night and is suspended, so struggling Driskel is back at QB, with no competent backup. LSU won three of its last four games vs Florida, holding Gators under 250 total yards all four games. Tigers got crushed 41-7 at Auburn last week, completing only 8 of 24 passes- they allowed 75 points in losing last two SEC tilts. Dogs are 4-2 vs spread in LSU's last six visits to the Swamp.

Ole Miss moved to 5-0 with 23-17 upset of Alabama last week, despite being outgained by 73 yards; tough spot here to go on road against Aggie squad that beat them 41-38/30-27 in first two SEC meetings. Ole Miss is 11-6 in last 17 games as road dogs, 4-2 under Freeze. Aggies lost 48-31 in Starkville last wek, Hill's first loss as QB; A&M is 6-7 as home faves under Sumlin- they allowed 285-289 rushing yards last two games, also scored 31+ in every game this season.

Auburn is 5-0 but struggled to 20-14 win at K-State in its only true road game; since 2010, Tigers are 4-2 as road favorites. Auburn is 10-2 in last 12 games vs Mississippi State; their 28-10 loss here in '12 was their first in last six visits here. Auburn won first two SEC games by 24-34; they ran ball for 302/298 yards. State ran ball for 591 yards, scored 41 ppg in winning last two games, over LSU/A&M; MSU covered four of last six tries as a home underdog.

Georgia RB Gurley is suspended for this game; he is Dawgs' best player, with 773 rushing yards (next highest is 224). Dawgs are scoring 45 ppg in 4-1 start, with only loss 38-35 at South Carolina; they covered once in last six road games. Road teams won both Georgia-Missouri games, with Dawgs winning 41-20 in last visit here; Georgia is running ball for 289 yards a game, but will they with Gurley out? Underdogs covered 12 of first 17 SEC conference games this season.

Wheels have fallen off for 2-4 Michigan, losing last three games, scoring 16 ppg- they're 0-5 vs spread in last five games, with only win in its last five games vs Miami OH team that lost 21 of last 22. Penn State won its last four games with Michigan, scoring 41.3 ppg; Lions scored total of 19 points in splitting first two league games, winning 13-10 at Rutgers- they are 8-11 vs spread in last 19 true road games, 0-1 this year. Michigan lost last two home games, to Utah/Minnesota.

Home side won last five Colorado State-Nevada games; Rams lost 51-6, 28-10 in last two visits here, Wolf Pack's only two wins in last 11 series games, as favorites covered four of last five series games. Rams split two road games, winning at BC, losing at Boise; they covered four of last five as road underdogs. Nevada allowed 19 or less points in three wins, 35-51 in its two losses; they're 7-12 in last 19 games as home favorite. MWC favorites are 6-4 vs spread in league games, 4-2 at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Playoffs

Royals-Orioles
Ventura is 3-0, 2.16 in his last four starts; he allowed one run in seven IP in his only playoff start. Ventura is 1-1, 1.26 in two starts vs Baltimore this year.

Norris is 5-0, 1.63 in his last six starts; he shut Detroit out for 6.1 innings in his first playoff start. Norris allowed one run in 7.1 IP against Royals this year.

Royals won 11 of last 13 games, including last six in row; they're 9-2 in their last eleven road games.

Orioles won four of their last five games, allowing 10 runs; they're 22-7 in last 29 home games.

Ventura 19-12........7-31 first inning
Norris 20-9.............10-25 first inning


Giants-Cardinals
Bumgarner is 6-2, 2.24 in his last nine starts, 4-3, 2.96 in eight playoff starts; he is 1-1, 3.75 in two starts vs St Louis this year.

Wainwright is 5-0, 2.49 in his last six starts. 4-3, 3.13 in ten postseason starts; he is 1-1, 5.25 against the Giants this season.

Giants won six of their last seven games, winning last three away games.

St Louis won four of its last five games, six of last seven at home.

Bumgarner 20-15.......10-35 first inning
Wainwright 24-9.........4-33 first inning

 

[arlo-booner]

ATS Consultants out of Baltimore has a 20 unit Underdog Lock of the Year today....wonder if they meant yesterday with it possibly being the Kansas City Royals...go blue!

 

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Thank You davejr