Saturday 10/11/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 7
By Joe Williams

What a sorry week for the Pac-12. All four of its ranked members in the Top 25 suffered setbacks. No. 2 Oregon was dropped in front of a national audience at home Thursday night, Stanford lost a heartbreaker at Notre Dame on a last-minute touchdown pass, USC tumbled on a Hail Mary at the buzzer against Arizona State, and UCLA was also bitten by the upset big in a loss at home to UCLA. In one weekend, the conference might have taken itself out of the running for one of the four playoff spots. Maybe.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-0 2-0 2-3 2-3
Arizona State 4-1 2-1 2-3 3-2
California 4-1 2-1 4-1 4-1
Colorado 2-4 0-3 3-3 3-3
Oregon 4-1 1-1 1-4 2-3
Oregon State 4-1 1-1 2-3 2-3
Southern California 3-2 2-1 3-2 3-2
Stanford 3-2 1-1 2-3 0-4
UCLA 4-1 1-1 1-4 2-3
Utah 4-1 1-1 4-1 2-3
Washington 4-1 0-1 2-3 1-4
Washington State 2-4 1-2 3-3 3-3


Oregon at UCLA (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Oregon and UCLA both suffered debilitating losses last week, and back-to-back losses will take them out of the hunt for a playoff spot, if they're not already done. The Ducks are still 13-4 ATS in their past 17 road games, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 games overall. UCLA heads into this one just 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall, but 14-5 ATS in their past 19 home games against a team with a winning road record. Oregon is 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to UCLA, and the under has cashed in four of those five games.

Washington at California (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)
California won last weekend, although its defense was trampled for 59 points. Hey, a win's a win, right? They will be put to the test against a Washington defense which is pretty solid, and which is also rested after having a bye last week. The Huskies haven't been very good on the road lately, however, going 5-12 ATS in their past 17 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 road outings against a team with a winning home record. California struggled in recent years, but not this year. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall, and their 3-13 ATS home mark over the past 16 games can mostly be ignored since this year's team is much better than previous seasons. In this series, Washington is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, although the underdog has also cashed in four of the past five. The 'under' has hit in each of the past five in this series.

Southern California at Arizona (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m.)
The Wildcats pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season, topping No. 2 Oregon on the road last Thursday. However, it would be mostly for naught if they came home and laid an egg against USC at home. The Trojans are just 3-12 ATS in the past 15 road contests, and 1-8 ATS in their past nine road games against a team with a winning home record. Despite the impressive win, Arizona is still just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference tilts. This series has seen the underdog go 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, and that bodes well for Arizona. In addition, USC is just 2-7 ATS in their past nine against Arizona. The 'under has hit in four of the past five battles between these two teams in Tucson.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Auburn at Mississippi State**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Auburn (5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 64. Gamblers can take the Bulldogs to win outright for a +125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

-- Mississippi State (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) has won eight consecutive games dating back to its three-game winning streak to close the 2013 campaign. The Bulldogs dealt out woodshed treatment to previously-unbeaten Texas A&M in Starkville last week, cruising to a 48-31 win as 2.5-point home favorites. Junior quarterback Dak Prescott was the catalyst, accounting for five touchdowns and 356 all-purpose yards. He completed 20-of-26 throws for 266 yards and two TDs without an interception. Prescott also had 77 rushing yards on 11 carries and caught a pass for 11 yards. We should also note that MSU played without a pair of key starters, including four-year starting center Dillon Day and top WR Jameon Lewis, both of whom are set to return Saturday.

-- Auburn ended a three-game losing streak to LSU by blasting the visitors 41-7 as a seven-point home favorite on The Plains. Nick Marshall produced 326 yards (207 passing, 119 rushing) and four TDs, while WR Sammie Coates finally broke out of a season-long slump with four receptions for 144 yards and one TD. AU's offense generated 566 yards of total offense and Ellis Johnson's defense limited LSU to 280 total yards.

-- Prescott and Marshall have the shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy according to Sportsbook.ag this week. Prescott has a 13/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and six rushing scores. He has 1,223 yards passing, 455 rushing yards and two catches for 35 yards and one TD.

-- Marshall is completing 57.9 percent of his passes for 755 yards with an 8/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed 58 times for 392 yards and four scores. The AU aerial attack has been helped by the arrival of juco transfer Duke Williams, who has 25 catches for 385 yards and three TDs. Cameron Artis-Payne has rushed for a team-high 594 yards and five TDs.

-- Mississippi St. has a workhorse RB enjoying a breakout season as well. His name is Josh Robinson, who has 592 rushing yards, six rushing scores and a 7.5 yards-per-carry average.

-- When these teams met at Auburn last year, Marshall had to throw an 11-yard TD pass to C.J. Uzomah with 10 seconds remaining to lift the Tigers to a 24-20 win as 6.5-point home favorites. Mississippi St. held AU to a season-low 120 rushing yards, 93 yards below its second-worst rushing performance last year (213 at LSU). The Bulldogs had taken a 20-14 advantage in the third quarter thanks to a pair of Prescott TD runs. Marshall was intercepted twice in this game.

-- During Dan Mullen's six-year tenure, Mississippi St. owns a 7-7 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog.

-- As a road favorite on Gus Malzahn's watch, Auburn is 2-1 ATS. The non-cover came in a 20-14 win at Kansas St. as a seven-point 'chalk' on Sept. 18. -- The 'over' is 3-2 overall for Mississippi St., 2-1 in its home games. The Bulldogs have seen their combined scores average 62.0 points per game.

-- The 'over' is 3-2 for AU, but the 'under' cashed in its lone road assignment. The Tigers' games have averaged combined scores of 56.4 PPG.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Ole Miss at Texas A&M**

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had Texas A&M (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) favored by two with the total in the 63-64 range.

-- Ole Miss (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) falls into a vintage letdown situation after posting one of the biggest wins in school history. The Rebels rallied to clip Alabama 23-17 as four-point home underdogs, prompting their fan base to rush the field and take the goal posts for a tour through Oxford.

-- Senior QB Bo Wallace led his team to victory by throwing three TD passes in the second half. His 34-yard scoring strike to Vince Sanders pulled the game into a 17-17 tie with 5:29 left. Then after recovering an Alabama fumble on the ensuing kick return, Wallace found Jaylen Walton for a 10-yard TD pass and the lead with 2:54 remaining. The Rebels secured the victory when Senquez Golson intercepted a Blake Sims pass in the back of the end zone.

-- Wallace has a 14/6 TD-INT ratio with four pass catchers with at least 246 yards receiving. Sophomore LaQuon Treadwell is his favorite target with 25 receptions for 362 yards and four TDs. -- In last week's loss at Mississippi St., Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill was intercepted three times. The Dallas Southlake High School product had only been picked off twice in the five previous games. Hill still threw for four TDs against the Bulldogs and has an impressive 21/5 TD-INT ratio. He didn't have his leading pass catcher Malcolme Kennedy (33 receptions for 378 yards and two TDs), who was a late scratch against MSU due to a shoulder injury. Kennedy is 'probable' vs. Ole Miss.

-- Texas A&M has compiled a 7-7 spread record as a home favorite during Kevin Sumlin's three-year tenure. The Aggies are 1-1 ATS in such spots this year. They are back at Kyle Field for the first time since beating Rice by a 38-10 count on Sept. 13.

-- Ole Miss has a 4-2 spread record as a road underdog on Hugh Freeze's watch.

-- One of the Rebels' top players in the secondary, Trae Elston, is suspended for the first half after the SEC ruled that he attempted to stomp on an Alabama player last week.

-- These schools have played a pair of epic classics that both went to the wire the last two seasons. Like Ole Miss had to play at Alabama in back-to-back years in 2012 and '13, Texas A&M had to play in Oxford the last two seasons. After winning a 30-27 decision in '12, the Aggies captured a 41-38 triumph in a thriller last year. We should note that the Rebels took the cash in both instances, covering last season as seven-point home underdogs. Johnny Manziel tied the game at 38-38 with a wild six-yard scramble that covered nearly the entire field before he successfully dove for the pylon. That score came with just over three minutes left and after getting the ball back, Manziel marched his team into field-goal range. Josh Lambo's 33-yard kick as time expired lifted A&M to a 41-38 victory in one of college football's best games in 2013.

-- The 'under' is 4-1 for Ole Miss, 1-0 in its only previous road trip.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 for A&M at home this year, 3-3 overall.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 7
By Chris David

Week 6 Recap

For those keeping track, the ‘under’ came out on top for the third consecutive week in college football. According to our numbers, the ‘under’ went 34-2-1 in FBS matchups and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for at least one finish, in particular the Arizona State-USC matchup.

Heading into the fourth quarter, USC held a 20-18 lead and they went ahead by nine points (27-18) early in the fourth quarter. That score held until ASU cut the lead to 27-25 with less than four minutes remaining in the game. The total on this game closed at 67 ½ and even the most optimist bettors that played the ‘over’ knew they needed a miracle. Sure enough, we saw three touchdowns scored in the final three minutes, which included the infamous “Hail Mary” 46-yard touchdown strike that gave ASU a 38-34 victory. For those who had the ‘under’, we feel for you.

Different Dynamics

After this weekend, we’ll have reached the midway point of the college football season, which is a solid sample size for us to handicap. We asked Totals Expert James Manos to point out certain schools that have surprised him thus far.

Manos answered, “I think there are a few teams that stick out as "surprises" but in different ways.”

“California is a team that has really developed in terms of tempo. I played the OVER in their opener vs. Northwestern, expecting a very up-tempo game, and got beat, but the Bears have really amped up the scoring since without really pushing up the pace. We all knew that head coach Sonny Dykes was going to bring his fast paced passing game to the program but it seems the bump up in talent level has allowed him to do even more than in prior seasons and to get better results with less snaps. QB (Jared) Goff has been outstanding and the Bears are averaging 50 ppg even though they rank just 45th in offensive plays per game. The combined scores of California's last three games, 94,115, and 119. With UCLA, Oregon, Oregon St., and USC still on the schedule they have the potential for several more high scoring games."

“Staying in the Pac-12, I've been a bit surprised by how new Washington HC (Chris) Peterson has run his program. While never a truly up-tempo coach at Boise State his teams did play a lot of offensive snaps, averaging 81 per game his last year at the helm. Now at Washington, he's slowed the game down considerably, focusing on the run, and while his team has scored points (35.6 ppg) they seem lethargic offensively at times. The Huskies are exactly middle-of-the-pack in terms of plays per game, averaging 74.8, which ranks them 65th out of 128 FBS teams.”

“On the flip side, I've been surprised at the pace of the Ball State Cardinals this year. Losing QB (Keith) Wenning must have hurt more than anyone could have guessed as HC (Pete) Lembo seems to have completely changed his offensive strategy. The Cardinals have gone from a high-scoring passing attack to a mundane slower paced team. In 2012 and 2013 the Cardinals played ONE game that totaled less than 54 points, they did it for three consecutive games to start the 2014 campaign. They rank 100th in passing offense, 105th in scoring offense, and their plays per game have dropped 15% to just 63.7 which ranks 123rd."

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC saw the ‘under’ go 7-0 last week as three schools were held to six points or less. Total players should keep an eye on the Louisville-Clemson matchup in Week 7. The Cardinals have the best scoring defense (12.7 PPG) in the ACC while Clemson boasts the best scoring offense (40.4 PPG).

For the third straight game, Ohio State flexed its muscle as it defeated Maryland 52-24 in its Big Ten opener. The Buckeyes have scored 66, 50 and 52 points in their last three games and you can sense that coach Urban Meyer knows he needs to win big if he wants to earn a bid to the College Football Playoff. Including that result, the conference saw the ‘over’ go 4-2 last week.

The Big 12 watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in conference play last Saturday. Oklahoma State saw its 4-0 ‘over’ run come to a halt when it defeated Iowa State 37-20 in Week 6 and the combined 57 points fell short of the closing number (63). Make a note that this game was scoreless after the first quarter.

There were six games in the Pac-12 last week and total bettors watched the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 but as mentioned above, the ASU-USC outcome could’ve made these results different. While that finish was wild, California’s 60-59 shootout victory over Washington State saw offensive records busted. The ‘over’ (67.5) cashed midway through the third quarter.

The SEC also had a stalemate (3-3) in Week 6 and most of the results were clear-cut. Twelve of the 14 teams in the conference are averaging 30-plus PPG and five are at 40 PPG above.

Streaks to Watch

Over 5-0
Georgia at Missouri (Suspension to Georgia RB)

Under 6-0
Navy vs. VMI (*Added game, O/U could be offered via Offshores)

Under 5-0
Ball State vs. Western Michigan
Houston at Memphis
Northwestern at Minnesota

Line Moves

Week 7

1) Correct Sharp Movement – North Texas/UAB Under
Close to a touchdown move in this Conference USA matchup (64 to 58 ½), which Manos agrees with.

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Michigan State/Purdue Under
The pros knocked this opener from 54 ½ to 51 ½ and Manos isn’t buying the move. The Spartans do have the best scoring offense (45.6 PPG) in the Big Ten and Purdue’s defense is far from great.

3) Public Movement – West Virginia/Texas Tech Over
This total opened 72 and has been bet up to 78 already. Both clubs like to play up-tempo but neither offense has shown consistency, but the same can be said for the defensive units too.

4) Market Manipulation – Washington/California Under
Manos spoke about both of these teams above and you can see that the “Pros” started chopping away at this number slowly, which opened at 75 ½. The number got as low as 69 ½ and will likely come up by kickoff, setting up the middle.

Listed below are all of the Week 7 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers as of Friday evening.


Week 7 Moves

Rotation Open Current

Michigan State at Purdue 54.5 51
Miami-Ohio at Akron 47.5 54.5
West Virginia at Texas Tech 72 78
Oklahoma State at Kansas 53.5 48.5
North Texas at UAB 64 58
Auburn at Mississippi State 59.5 63.5
Washington at California 75.5 70
Arkansas State at Georgia State 59.5 65.5
FIU at Texas-San Antonio 45 40
Mississippi at Texas A&M 60 65.5
Uconn at Tulane 47 41.5
Colorado State at Nevada 57.5 64.5
Wyoming at Hawaii 48.5 43

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

AUBURN TIGERS (5-0) at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (5-0)
Line & Total: Auburn -3, Total: 63

Two of the best teams in the nation collide on Saturday afternoon when No. 2 Auburn visits No. 3 Mississippi State.

Auburn has put itself in a great position to compete for the national title after reeling off five consecutive SU victories (3-2 ATS) to start the 2014 campaign. The Tigers have had two big tests in the early going, edging Kansas State by a 20-14 score as seven-point favorites while proving to be the better team last week against LSU as they dominated with a 41-7 blowout; easily covering the 6.5-point spread it was giving. In that contest, Auburn recorded 566 total yards of offense while its defense was stingy; holding LSU to an 0-for-13 mark on third down and giving up only 142 passing yards. Mississippi State also jumped into the college football playoff picture with two straight wins over top-10 programs. First it went to LSU and pulled off the upset with a 34-29 win as touchdown underdogs, then followed that up with a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in which it dropped 48 points on the Aggies and won by 17 as 2.5-point favorites at home. The victory brought the Bulldogs to 4-1 ATS on the season as they forced three turnovers in a contest where the two teams combined for 1,085 total yards of offense.

This has been a fun matchup to watch over the past few years, and while Auburn has dominated SU since 2008 (5-1), they are an even 3-3 ATS in that timeframe. Last season the Tigers were able to pull out a 24-20 win as 6.5-point favorites by scoring a touchdown in the final 10 seconds of the game. QB Dak Prescott dominated on the ground for the Bulldogs with 133 yards and two touchdowns, but it was not enough, as QB Nick Marshall threw for 339 yards and 2 TD, including the game-winner. Trends show that Auburn is 10-0 ATS after playing a conference game in the past two seasons, while Mississippi State is 18-7 ATS (72%) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games since 1992. There are no significant injuries going into this game for either team.

Auburn has posted some solid offensive numbers so far, getting 497.2 YPG of total offense per game (23rd in FBS) while being dominant on the ground (268 rush YPG, 14th in nation) and scoring 42.0 PPG (15th in FBS). Their leader is dual-threat QB Nick Marshall (755 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) who has limited turnovers in the passing game while averaging 22.3 passing attempts per game. His real threat comes from his ability to run though, and has totaled 392 yards (6.8 YPC) with four touchdowns on the ground while surpassing the century mark in three of the past four contests. Joining him in the strong rushing attack is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (594 rush yards, 5 TD) who has been a workhorse with at least 22 carries in four of his five games while averaging 5.4 YPC. Last week against LSU, Artis-Payne had season highs in both rushing yards (126) and receiving yards (35), but failed to get into the end zone.

WR D’haquille Williams (25 rec., 385 yards, 3 TD) has 15 more receptions than any other Tigers wideout despite recording a mere two catches in each of his past two games. The defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its five contests, as the team is allowing an average of 306.6 YPG to their opponents (14th in FBS). LB Cassanova McKinzy (35 tackles, 1 sack) leads this defense that has a tough task ahead with a trip to Starkville.

Mississippi State has run all over its opponents with 274.4 YPG on the ground (13th in FBS) while also ranking 43rd in FBS passing (269.2 YPG), leading to 42.6 PPG (13th in nation). QB Dak Prescott (1,232 pass yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) has improved in each of the past three seasons and has thrown for at least 200 yards in all of the games this season while throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past three contests. His YPA has jumped to an impressive 10.10 this year, while he continues to do a lot of damage in the run game, rushing for 455 yards (5.4 YPC) and six touchdowns on the season while scoring at least 1 TD in each of the past four games. He was also responsible for five touchdowns (2 passing, 3 rushing) in the big 48-31 victory over Texas A&M last week. The other important player in the backfield is HB Josh Robinson who has run for 592 yards (7.5 YPC) and 6 TD, while picking up at least 75 yards in each game so far.

Both WRs De’Runnya Wilson (247 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Jameon Lewis (223 rec. yards, 1 TD) have looked impressive in the passing game, as nine different players have caught touchdown passes. The defense has allowed 19.4 PPG to its opposition (22nd in nation) while being led by LB Benardrick McKinney (36 tackles, 6 TFL, 3 sacks).

OREGON DUCKS (4-1) at UCLA BRUINS (4-1)
Line & Total: Oregon -1.5 Total: 69.5

Two Pac-12 teams with playoff aspirations look to bounce back from surprising home losses as No. 12 Oregon travels to No. 18 UCLA on Saturday.

The Ducks are trying to shake off losing to Arizona 31-24 last Thursday night, and they have not lost consecutive games since November 15, 2007, when they ended up losing three straight games. Oregon has been very good after losing at home, going 20-6 ATS in such games. The UCLA loss was equally as stunning, as quarterback Brett Hundley was sacked 10 times in the 30-28 home defeat to Utah. Those 10 sacks were the highest number for any Division I quarterback in nearly two years. Both of these teams have shown the ability to put up a lot of points, and if this turns into a shootout, the Bruins may be in good shape. UCLA is 17-6 ATS when scoring at least 28 points in the past three seasons, and is a perfect 7-0 ATS when scoring 35 or more points.

This matchup of two teams that are relatively injury-free, could very easily could be an elimination game from the college football playoff. The Ducks have beaten the Bruins five straight times by an average score of 41 to 18, but four of those games were in Eugene. However, in their past eight road games in this series since 1995, the Ducks are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS.

The Ducks still have one of the best offenses in the country, as the unit ranks 9th in scoring (43.6 PPG), 16th in passing (324.4 YPG) and 35th in rushing (209 YPG). QB Marcus Mariota (1,411 pass yards, 71% completions, 15 TD) has still has not thrown an interception, and has shown he can still make plays with his legs (215 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 3 TD). However, there are problems with the team and it starts with the offensive line. The unit had major problems blocking Arizona's front four, and Mariota was under pressure for most of the night. In the loss to the Wildcats, Mariota rushed for only one yard, which was 41 yards less than his next lowest output on the season. Freshman RB Royce Freeman (67 carries, 346 yards, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD) is the leading rusher on the team. This is another area where the struggles of the offensive line is hurting, as the Ducks are not getting the big plays that they are accustomed to getting. While the rushing attack isn’t providing the team with the normal big plays, there are some playmakers at receiver. WR Devon Allen (19 catches, 377 yards, 6 TD) has shown that he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and WR Keanon Lowe (17 catches, 266 yards, 4 TD) is another guy that can get behind the defense for a touchdown. Oregon is currently averaging 14.9 yards per completion, which should force the Bruins to keep an extra defender playing deep.

The defense has played well at times, but has made some crucial mistakes at the end of games. Last week, the unit appeared to be getting off the field late in the game, but an unsportsmanlike penalty gave the Wildcats a fresh set of downs. Sophomore DB Reggie Daniels (35 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF) is the leading tackler on a defense that relies heavily on its speed. Senior CB Erick Dargan (27 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 TFL) has been very good for the Ducks this year, as opposing quarterbacks try and avoid throwing at CB Ife Ekpre-Olomu (26 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT). If those cornerbacks can do a good job of covering the Bruins wide receivers, then there should be opportunities for LB Tyson Coleman (13 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 2 sacks) and DL Arik Armsted (17 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 sack) to pressure QB Brett Hundley.

The Bruins had multiple opportunities to get the win against the Utes, but just could not finish it in the end. QB Brett Hundley (1,310 pass yards, 71% completions, 10.5 YPA, 9 TD, 2 INT) is very similar to Mariota, as he can also get out and do some things with his legs (122 rush yards, 2 TD). However, after leading the team in rushing last season, Hundley has stayed in the pocket much more this year. The 10 sacks last week by Utah was a combination of many things. From the offensive line struggling, to wide receivers not getting open, to even Hundley holding the ball too long, everyone was at fault on the numbers of sacks. For the Bruins to get back on track, RB Paul Perkins (94 carries, 540 yards, 5.7 YPC, 3 TD) must give UCLA something from the running game. At wide receiver, Jordan Payton (31 catches, 491 yards, 3 TD) is Hundley's top target. Payton is a physical receiver that can also get behind his defender for the big play. Payton must do a better job of getting open against a tough Oregon secondary, as the Ducks may be blitzing after seeing the Utes performance last week.

The Bruins defense has a lot of talent on it, led by LBs Eric Kendricks (58 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 INT) and Myles Jack (38 tackles, 3 pass breakups, 1 TFL). This is a unit that has a lot of speed, but at times, can over-pursue. If the defense can stick to the fundamentals, then the unit has a good chance of at least containing the Ducks offense. Special teams also doomed the Bruins last week, as kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn missed not one, but two field goals at the end of the game that could have given UCLA the win. Oregon will score some points, so the Bruins can’t leave points on the field with missed field goals.

TCU HORNED FROGS (4-0) at BAYLOR BEARS (5-0)
Line & Total: Baylor -7.5, Total: 66.5

No. 9 TCU looks to continue its impressive run this season when it makes the short trip to Waco to take on No. 5 Baylor in a Big 12 showdown.

The Horned Frogs were unranked two weeks ago, but are now in the top-10 after a 56-0 laugher over SMU followed by defeating No. 4 Oklahoma, 37-33, last Saturday. With the win, TCU moved up to No. 9, making this only the second matchup ever at Waco among top-10 teams. The Frogs have not won a road game against a ranked team since defeating No. 18 Texas in 2012, but QB Trevone Boykin has emerged into one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, racking up 395 total yards and a pair of touchdown passes versus the Sooners. The Bears are coming off a 28-7 victory against Texas, despite the offense not clicking on all cylinders. QB Bryce Petty only threw for 111 yards, the least amount of yards during his time as the starting quarterback at Baylor.

The Bears have been terrific against ranked teams in Waco under coach Art Briles, winning their past six games against top 25 foes. They are also 9-0 ATS at home over the past two seasons with an average score of 60 to 11 in that timeframe, but dating back to 1992, the Bears are 6-21 ATS (22%) versus good passing defenses (allowing a completion percentage of 48% or better). With Frogs DT Davion Pierson (ankle) upgraded to probable, neither team has any key new injuries to be concerned about.

TCU has been very good on offense this season, ranking 12th in FBS scoring (42.8 PPG), 19th in passing (320 YPG) and 41st in rushing (196.3 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (1,176 pass yards, 260 rush yards, 13 total TD) was terrific in the win against the Sooners. He has always been a threat to run the ball, but it is Boykin's passing that has made him so difficult to stop this season, as he's completing 62% of his throws for 7.3 YPA, both career highs. He has thrown only two interceptions this season, which is key for a TCU team that has proven to be difficult to score on. While Boykin is the leading rusher on the team, running back B.J. Catalon (46 carries, 220 yards, 4 TD) is emerging as a guy the Horned Frogs can count on. He had 87 total yards of offense against the Sooners, helping the TCU offense create some balance on that side of the ball. WR Kolby Listenbee (14 rec, 272 yards, 2 TD) has emerged as the Horned Frogs deep threat, but there are other receivers such as Josh Doctson (19 catches, 212 yards, 3 TD) and Deante' Gray (16 catches, 196 yards, 3 TD).

The Horned Frogs are going to have to put up a big number of points to get outlast Baylor, but their defensive unit is one of the best in the country, with a mere 13.5 PPG allowed (7th in FBS). LB Paul Dawson (37 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) had the game-changing play last weekend against Oklahoma, as he took back an interception that would prove to be the difference in the game. DT Davion Pearson (10 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is an emerging force in the middle of the defense, with his 305-pound frame constantly forcing teams to double-team him. Junior S Chris Hackett (31 tackles) is the leader in the secondary, and he must be ready to help in the passing game, but also against the run.

The Bears offense has not been clicking on all cylinders the past two weeks, but is still ranked leading the nation in scoring (51.0 PPG), while ranking 8th in passing (343.2 YPG) and 18th in rushing (247.4. YPG). A back injury has slowed QB Bryce Petty (1,024 pass yards, 9 TD, 1 INT), but he is still one of the elite quarterbacks in the country. He also has three touchdowns this year running the ball, forcing defenses to creep up into the box. Joining Petty in the backfield is RB Shock Linwood (90 carries, 549 yards, 8 TD), who is emerging as one of the best running backs in the Big 12. He is more known as a speed back, but he also has the strength and power to run up the middle. His ability to wear out the defense helps open things up for the passing game, where the Bears have as much talent as any other team in the country. WR KD Cannon (24 catches, 527 yards, 5 TD) is a freshman that has shown superstar potential. He is the type of guy that demands a safety over top, which opens things up for teammates like WRs Antwan Goodley (10 catches, 183 yards, 1 TD). Like Petty, Goodley has been hampered by a quad injury, but is getting close to his All-American form from last season.

The offense is once again explosive, but what the Bears showed in the win against Texas is that their defense is also very good. The unit ranks fifth in FBS points allowed (12.4 PPG), and did not allow the Longhorns to score until the final minutes of the game. LB Bryce Hager (29 tackles, 3.5 TFL) is the anchor of this unit, providing the team with leadership and a knack of finding the ball. In the secondary, S Orion Stewart (3 INT) is a rising star with the ability of reading the quarterback and making the big play. The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 championship, especially the Horned Frogs who now have the tiebreaker over conference favorite Oklahoma.

OLE MISS REBELS (5-0) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-1)
Line & Total: Texas A&M -2, Total: 62

Another tough SEC battle ensues on Saturday night as No. 3 Ole Miss visits No. 14 Texas A&M.

Ole Miss has been one of the more surprising teams coming out of the SEC with a perfect record so far, and its win over Alabama last week vaulted the school squarely into the playoff picture. The Rebels are 5-0 ATS and were four-point underdogs when they hosted the Crimson Tide last Saturday when they outscored Alabama 20-3 in the second half and forced two turnovers in the 23-17 win. In the Crimson Tide’s final attempt to take a lead, DB Senquez Wilson intercepted a pass in the end zone with 37 seconds left on the clock that clinched the upset. The Aggies were hoping to remain perfect last week, but ran into a tough Mississippi State team that was too hot to handle as they lost 48-31 as 2.5-point underdogs in a game where the two teams totaled 1,085 yards of offense. The ATS loss brought them to 3-3 ATS on the year, which includes failing to cover the spread in three of the past four contests. Although Texas A&M is a solid 5-1 SU, this team has had issues with turnovers and has coughed up the pigskin nine times while forcing opponents to turn the ball over just six times.

Each of the past two meetings between these teams has ended with the Aggies taking a three-point victory on the road while failing to cover the spread. Last season, A&M won 41-38 as a seven-point favorite in an offensive battle where the teams combined for 56 first downs and 1,049 total yards. Bettors should take note that Ole Miss is 22-9 ATS (71%) in all games over the past three seasons, while the Aggies are 10-1 ATS (91%) in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. In injury news, DB Trae Elston (suspension) will miss the first half of this game for the Rebels, while LB A.J. Hilliard (ankle) is out indefinitely for the Aggies.

Ole Miss has put up some big numbers through the air (318.6 YPG, 22nd in FBS) as it is totaling 35.8 PPG by scoring 35 or more points in three of five games on the year. QB Bo Wallace (1,522 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) was amazing against Alabama last week with 3 TD and 0 INT while passing for 251 yards (8.1 YPA). He’s thrown for more than 310 yards three times already on the year, but can have trouble with turnovers as he has twice thrown multiple picks. HB Jaylen Walton (238 rush yards, 3 TD) leads the rushing attack and is coming off two consecutive games with double-digit carries, while change-of-pace HB I’Tavius Mathers (152 rush yards, 2 TD) had just two rushing attempts last week. Wallace has plenty of talent in his receiving corps, such as WRs Laquon Treadwell (362 rec. yards, 4 TD), Cody Core (315 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Vince Sanders (302 rec. yards, 3 TD). These players are all legitimate red-zone threats while having at least 20 receptions on the year. The defense of this program continues to shine, as the unit has allowed the nation's second-fewest points (10.2 PPG) while limiting opponents to 278 total YPG and 4.1 yards per play. The Rebels will continue to lean on DB Senquez Wilson (17 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 TD) to headline the secondary.

Texas A&M continues to rely heavily on its passing game which ranks fifth in FBS (395.2 YPG) while still doing well on the ground (188 YPG) and scoring a bloated 47.8 PPG (3rd in nation). The emergence of QB Kenny Hill (2,110 pass yards, 21 TD, 5 INT) has given this program tons of hope, as he has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his six games, but has thrown all five of his picks in the past three weeks. He does also contribute somewhat to the ground game with 171 yards rushing (5.0 YPC). HBs Trey Williams (287 rush yards, 4 TD) and Tra Carson (244 rush yards, 4 TD) have split carries in the backfield while combining to average 6.2 YPC. Carson seems to be taking over as more of the feature back though, with 11 attempts in the last game compared to just four by Williams.

WR Josh Reynolds (402 rec. yards, 7 TD) has been the big playmaker through the air for this offense, as he is averaging 17.5 yards per catch while both WRs Malcome Kennedy (378 rec. yards, 2 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (293 rec. yards, 3 TD) have at least 30 receptions. The defense has not looked great over the past two weeks, allowing 38.0 PPG to two tough offenses, but and has still given up only 20.5 PPG (29th in FBS) overall this year. Freshman DL Myles Garrett (30 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and LB Howard Matthews (39 tackles) hope they can get this unit back on track this weekend.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Power Rankings: Week 7
By Jesse Schule

Following a week of games which saw major programs on the wrong end of scorelines, our Power Rankings receive a shake up. Auburn grabs the top spot while Ole Miss jumps seven spots to No. 2 and Mississippi State goes up eight spots to No. 3 to name just a couple.


NCAAF Power Rankings

Current Rank Last Week Change Team W-L-T
(ATS) Power Rating Team Comments

1 5 up 4 5-0-0
(3-2-0) -25 Auburn
The Tigers' only regular season loss of 2013 came at the hands of LSU, and they avenged that loss with a 41-7 win this Saturday.

2 9 up 7 5-0-0
(4-0-1) -24.5 Mississippi
The fans didn't just storm the field after the Rebels upset Alabama, they ripped down the goal posts and carried them home.

3 11 up 8 5-0-0
(4-1-0) -24 Mississippi State
The Bulldogs moved to 5-0 with a win over Texas A&M, and they'll host Auburn on Saturday.

4 7 up 3 5-0-0
(4-0-1) -23.5 Baylor
The Bears are the highest scoring team in the country, but they tallied a season low 28 points at Texas this week.

5 6 up 1 5-0-0
(1-4-0) -22 Florida State
The Seminoles are undefeated, but of the teams that are 5-0, they've impressed the least.

6 10 up 4 5-0-0
(4-1-0) -21.5 Notre Dame
The Irish defeated Stanford with a stunning drive that ended with a fourth down TD pass in the endzone.

7 2 down 5 4-1-0
(1-4-0) -20 Alabama
The Crimson Tide were victims of a fourth quarter comeback by Ole Miss, surrendering 13 unanswered points, losing 23-17.

8 8 same 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -19.5 Michigan State
The Spartans easily handled Nebraska this week, and they still look like the team to beat in the Big-10.

9 14 up 5 4-1-0
(2-3-0) -19 Georgia
A wild week of upsets is welcome news for the Bulldogs, as they are among a long list of playoff contenders with one loss.

10 3 down 7 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -18.5 Oklahoma
The Sooners were upset by TCU this week, and their playoff hopes are now in serious trouble.

11 1 down 10 4-1-0
(1-4-0) -18 Oregon
The Ducks were upset by Arizona for the second straight season, and a date with UCLA this weekend is looming large.

12 24 up 12 4-0-0
(4-0-0) -17.5 Texas Christian
The Horned Frogs' upset win over Oklahoma puts them at 4-0.

13 20 up 7 4-1-0
(4-1-0) -17 Ohio State
J.T. Barrett has the Buckeyes offense firing on all cylinders, and he's thrown 14 TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts.

14 21 up 7 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -16 Kansas State
The Wildcats are 4-1, and their only loss came in a close game against Auburn.

15 4 down 11 5-1-0
(3-3-0) -15.5 Texas A&M
The Aggies undefeated run came to an abrupt end in a loss to the Bulldogs, and it was even worse that the 48-31 score would suggest.

16 42 up 26 5-0-0
(2-3-0) -15 Arizona
The Wildcats did it again, upsetting the Oregon Ducks and moving to 5-0 on the season. The rest of their schedule is loaded with tough games though, and they still have a lot to prove.

17 12 down 5 4-1-0
(1-4-0) -14.5 UCLA
The Bruins had been flirting with disaster all season long, and they couldn't avoid the upset loss to Utah on Saturday.

18 25 up 7 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -14 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys overcame a sub-par performance from QB Dax Garman this week, defeating Iowa State 37-20.

19 23 up 4 4-1-0
(4-1-0) -13.5 East Carolina
Pirates QB Shane Carden has thrown for 1879 yards, ranking 6th nationally.

20 31 up 11 4-1-0
(2-3-0) -13 Arizona State
Backup QB Mike Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five TDs in the win at USC this week.

21 17 down 4 5-1-0
(5-1-0) -12.5 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers undefeated run came to an end in East Lansing, as they were completely out-classed by the Spartans.

22 13 down 9 3-2-0
(2-3-0) -12 Stanford
The Cardinal couldn't stop Notre Dame from converting on 4th and long in the final minute, losing another heartbreaker at South Bend.

23 22 down 1 3-2-0
(4-1-0) -11.5 Clemson
Tigers QB Deshaun Watson has thrown for eight TDs and run for two more in his last two starts.

24 55 up 31 5-0-0
(3-2-0) -11 Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are 5-0, but none of their wins have come against ranked teams.

25 64 up 39 4-1-0
(4-1-0) -10.5 Utah
The Utes are a contender in the Pac-12 after upsetting UCLA this week.

26 26 same 5-0-0
(4-1-0) -9.75 Marshall

27 28 up 1 4-2-0
(3-3-0) -9.5 North Carolina State

28 29 up 1 3-1-0
(2-2-0) -9 Florida

29 30 up 1 5-1-0
(4-2-0) -8.75 Louisville

30 27 down 3 3-3-0
(1-5-0) -8.5 South Carolina

31 32 up 1 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -8.25 Missouri

32 18 down 14 3-2-0
(3-2-0) -8 Southern California

33 34 up 1 4-1-0
(2-3-0) -7.7 Iowa

34 35 up 1 3-2-0
(3-2-0) -7.5 West Virginia

35 19 down 16 3-2-0
(1-4-0) -7.4 Wisconsin

36 15 down 21 4-2-0
(4-2-0) -7.2 Louisiana State

37 39 up 2 2-3-0
(2-3-0) -7 Tennessee

38 40 up 2 2-2-0
(1-3-0) -6.9 Cincinnati

39 41 up 2 4-2-0
(5-0-1) -6.7 Virginia

40 37 down 3 4-1-0
(2-3-0) -6.5 Washington

41 44 up 3 4-1-0
(4-1-0) -6.3 California

42 45 up 3 5-1-0
(4-2-0) -6 Rutgers

43 46 up 3 3-3-0
(2-3-1) -5.5 Pittsburgh

44 48 up 4 2-3-0
(1-4-0) -5.5 Texas Tech

45 50 up 5 4-2-0
(3-3-0) -5.3 Maryland

46 51 up 5 3-2-0
(2-3-0) -5 Indiana

47 52 up 5 4-2-0
(4-2-0) -4.7 Boise State

48 16 down 32 4-1-0
(2-3-0) -4.5 Brigham Young

49 56 up 7 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -4.2 Northern Illinois

50 61 up 11 4-1-0
(2-3-0) -4 Oregon State

51 36 down 15 4-1-0
(2-2-1) -3.9 Duke

52 33 down 19 2-3-0
(3-2-0) -3.75 Texas

53 43 down 10 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -3.6 Penn State

54 38 down 16 2-3-0
(2-3-0) -3.5 San Diego State

55 49 down 6 3-3-0
(2-4-0) -3.4 Miami

56 63 up 7 3-2-0
(4-1-0) -3.3 Arkansas

57 47 down 10 2-4-0
(2-4-0) -3.2 Michigan

58 54 down 4 2-3-0
(2-3-0) -3.1 Western Kentucky

59 58 down 1 3-2-0
(3-2-0) -3 Boston College

60 53 down 7 2-2-0
(2-2-0) -2.953229 Central Florida

61 62 up 1 4-1-0
(4-1-0) -2.940531 Kentucky

62 60 down 2 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -2.708247 Minnesota

63 65 up 2 4-2-0
(3-3-0) -2.694679 Virginia Tech

64 67 up 3 3-1-0
(3-1-0) -2.347312 Temple

65 57 down 8 1-4-0
(2-3-0) -2.265407 Texas-San Antonio

66 66 same 3-2-0
(3-2-0) -2.215929 Alabama-Birmingham

67 70 up 3 3-2-0
(2-3-0) -2.184692 Northwestern

68 77 up 9 3-3-0
(5-1-0) -2.123351 Louisiana Tech

69 59 down 10 2-3-0
(3-2-0) -1.631711 Texas El Paso

70 72 up 2 3-2-0
(3-2-0) -1.457512 Nevada

71 75 up 4 4-2-0
(5-1-0) -1.343889 Georgia Southern

72 80 up 8 3-2-0
(4-0-1) -1.336843 Memphis

73 69 down 4 2-3-0
(1-4-0) -1.108951 Syracuse

74 68 down 6 1-4-0
(2-2-1) -1.094012 Iowa State

75 76 up 1 4-1-0
(4-1-0) -0.9893084 Colorado State

76 71 down 5 2-4-0
(2-4-0) -0.8655239 Navy

77 78 up 1 4-1-0
(3-2-0) -0.8638107 Air Force

78 73 down 5 3-2-0
(1-4-0) -0.3399944 UL Monroe

79 74 down 5 3-3-0
(1-5-0) 0.09094296 Illinois

80 79 down 1 3-3-0
(2-4-0) 0.1870649 Central Michigan

81 81 same 3-3-0
(4-2-0) 0.3093285 Purdue

82 82 same 3-2-0
(3-2-0) 0.3818903 South Alabama

83 86 up 3 4-2-0
(4-2-0) 0.6560687 Middle Tennessee

84 90 up 6 2-4-0
(3-3-0) 0.827006 Washington State

85 89 up 4 3-2-0
(3-2-0) 0.8759095 Texas State

86 94 up 8 3-3-0
(5-1-0) 0.8788664 Florida International

87 85 down 2 1-4-0
(2-3-0) 0.9624219 Ball State

88 87 down 1 2-3-0
(2-3-0) 0.9904629 Army

89 95 up 6 2-3-0
(2-3-0) 1.016764 Houston

90 91 up 1 2-3-0
(4-1-0) 1.053839 Western Michigan

91 102 up 11 3-2-0
(4-1-0) 1.125136 Arkansas State

92 83 down 9 3-3-0
(2-4-0) 1.209781 Old Dominion

93 93 same 1-4-0
(3-2-0) 1.453285 Hawaii

94 84 down 10 3-2-0
(2-3-0) 1.528009 Wyoming

95 88 down 7 2-3-0
(0-5-0) 1.570305 North Carolina

96 103 up 7 2-4-0
(3-3-0) 1.697127 Colorado

97 106 up 9 3-2-0
(2-3-0) 1.701675 Akron

98 99 up 1 2-3-0
(2-3-0) 1.870002 North Texas

99 96 down 3 2-4-0
(3-3-0) 1.894747 Wake Forest

100 100 same 1-4-0
(3-2-0) 2.003691 Georgia State

101 97 down 4 2-3-0
(2-3-0) 2.097283 Kansas

102 101 down 1 3-3-0
(3-3-0) 2.09932 Ohio

103 104 up 1 2-3-0
(3-2-0) 2.107835 South Florida

104 108 up 4 4-2-0
(2-4-0) 2.232517 Toledo

105 92 down 13 2-3-0
(1-4-0) 2.261985 UL Lafayette

106 107 up 1 3-3-0
(3-3-0) 2.304298 Buffalo

107 111 up 4 3-2-0
(1-4-0) 2.354299 Utah State

108 105 down 3 0-5-0
(2-3-0) 2.358322 Idaho

109 98 down 11 2-4-0
(4-2-0) 2.453514 New Mexico State

110 110 same 1-5-0
(3-3-0) 3.095997 Miami (Ohio)

111 112 up 1 2-3-0
(1-4-0) 3.137718 New Mexico

112 116 up 4 2-3-0
(3-2-0) 3.364221 Rice

113 109 down 4 1-4-0
(1-4-0) 3.43225 Tulsa

114 114 same 1-4-0
(0-5-0) 3.857767 Connecticut

115 113 down 2 1-4-0
(1-4-0) 3.914693 Tulane

116 118 up 2 2-3-0
(2-3-0) 3.961757 San Jose State

117 115 down 2 0-6-0
(4-2-0) 4.039264 Massachusetts

118 119 up 1 4-2-0
(2-4-0) 4.275877 Bowling Green

119 117 down 2 1-4-0
(1-4-0) 4.413635 Appalachian State

120 120 same 0-5-0
(1-4-0) 4.992692 Kent State

121 122 up 1 2-4-0
(4-2-0) 5.491767 Florida Atlantic

122 121 down 1 1-5-0
(3-3-0) 5.737136 Vanderbilt

123 124 up 1 2-4-0
(3-3-0) 6.198335 Southern Mississippi

124 126 up 2 3-3-0
(3-3-0) 6.207185 Fresno State

125 123 down 2 1-5-0
(1-5-0) 6.422885 UNLV

126 125 down 1 0-5-0
(2-3-0) 6.61615 Troy

127 127 same 1-4-0
(2-3-0) 7.570317 Eastern Michigan

128 128 same 0-5-0
(1-4-0) 9.71021 Southern Methodist

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Week 7 line watch: Take Huskies closer to kickoff
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20) at Kansas Jayhawks

Oklahoma State is currently a 20-point road favorite over Kansas, but I anticipate this line closing at 3 touchdowns or more. The Cowboys have a tendency to blow out bad teams as head coach Mike Gundy is never shy about running up the score.

Kansas is one of the worst teams in the country, and the Jayhawks are a dysfunctional mess after firing head coach Charlie Weis before last week’s game. Kansas showed nothing last week as they had just nine first downs and 176 yards of total offense in a 33-14 loss to West Virginia. Bettors should play this game now, and lay less than the expected 21-point spread.

Spread to wait on

Washington Huskies (+2.5) at California Golden Bears

Washington actually briefly opened as a road favorite at a few sportsbooks on Sunday afternoon, with other books opening California as a 1-point home favorite. The money quickly came in on California and by Monday afternoon the line had already risen to 2.5. With California's recent results, this line might hit the key number of '3' as the week goes on. California is off three straight last-minute wins, and they are getting publicity because of it.

Washington is flying under the radar under new head coach Chris Peterson. The Huskies are 4-1 SU with their lone loss coming by seven points (20-13) to Stanford in their last game. Washington comes into this game off a bye, so they will be the much fresher team. Wait and take the Huskies at a better line closer to kick off.

Total to watch

Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers

Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino has a reputation of running high-scoring offensive teams. However, this version of the Cardinals is exactly the opposite as they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. Louisville is also playing with a true freshman at quarterback, so Petrino’s offense has been unable to get going this season. WR DeVante Parker is also battling a foot injury.

Clemson is known for their offensive success, but after losing their most productive players from last year’s team, including QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins, the Tigers have relied on their defense this season. Clemson did score 91 points in their past two games, but those points came against two of the worst defenses in the country. The oddsmakers will inflate this total on perception, so there will be value on the Under, especially if the total is posted in the high 50’s.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS - TO BE SUCCESSFUL REQUIRES BOTH HARD WORK AND PASSION

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

The Northwestern Wildcats provided one of the many college football upsets this past weekend, knocking off Wisconsin 20-14 at home, taking advantage of four interceptions from the Badgers Saturday. The Wildcats covered as 7.5-point home underdogs and hit the road in Week 7, getting three points in Minnesota following this huge Big Ten win.

Northwestern runs the risk of coming out flat against a Golden Gophers team also coming off a big-name win, taking down Michigan. Minnesota brings momentum into this matchup and has been the smart bet in past meetings with the Wildcats. The Golden Gophers have covered in four of their last five clashes with Northwestern, including a 20-17 victory as 12.5-point pups in Chicago last season.

Lookahead spot

With a slew of crazy upsets knocking off many of the NCAA College Football Playoff contenders this past weekend, two programs are on a collision course for a game that could make or break national title hopes. The defending national champion Florida State Seminoles take on No. 5 Notre Dame – both undefeated – in a massive showdown in two weeks.

But before FSU and the Fighting Irish butt heads, the Seminoles must travel to Syracuse for an ACC matchup in the Carrier Dome. Florida State is a terrible bet to start the season at 1-4 ATS, including a 0-2 ATS record on the road. This Noles team seems disinterested at times and often cruises against big pointspreads, much like the 22.5 point Florida State is giving to the Orangemen. With Notre Dame waiting in the wings, expect another barely-there performance from the Seminoles.

Schedule spot

The Washington Redskins make a cross-country trip to the desert to play the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6. The Redskins are on a short week, coming off a physical affair against the defending Super Bowl winning Seattle Seahawks and their bruising defense Monday, and now face another daunting NFC West stop unit on the road.

Washington has lost both road games this season, splitting those results ATS, and was just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away from D.C. last season. The Redskins are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight clashes with the NFC West and could not only be suffering from aches pain on a short week but also some jet lag as well.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sloppy conditions in store for Red River Rivalry
Justin Hartling

Oklahoma and Texas are set to do battle in another chapter in the Red River Rivalry, but conditions will be far from optimal. Starting late Friday night a thunderstorm is set to drop 2-3 inches of rain on the Cotton Bowl.

The clouds and thundershowers are expected to last all-day Saturday and will create messy field conditions for the Sooners and Longhorns.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bears lone home blemish came against TCU
Justin Hartling

There has been few teams as dominant at home as Baylor. In the Bears last 22 home games, the team is 21-1 straight up and 19-2 against the spread. Their lone straight-up loss, as well as one of their ATS losses, came against at the hands of TCU in 2012.

The Bears are 8-point home faces Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Unranked USC favored against Arizona
Justin Hartling

Even though Arizona ranked No.10 and No.13 in the AP and USA Today poll respectively, they are certainly not favored by oddsmakers. The Wildcats are 3-point home dogs against the unranked USC Trojans Saturday.

'Zona is 5-0 straight up, but only 2-3 against the spread this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How college football heavyweights respond off a rare loss
By KEVIN CAUSEY

Week 6 of the college football schedule was packed with plenty of stunners. Some brand-name programs and NCAAF heavyweights took one on the chin, and we look at how these Goliaths respond to a loss. Do they come back strong for bettors or are these big boys broken merchandise?

Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS)

Before losing 23-17 at Ole Miss last weekend, Alabama had only dropped three regular season games the three years prior. The Crimson Tide fell in the Iron Bowl to Auburn in dramatic fashion last year, then laid an egg against Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS off a loss in that span and going back further reveals a telling 3-12 ATS record in its last 15 games when coming off a defeat.

The wounded Tide (1-4 ATS) travel to Arkansas as 10.5-point favorites Saturday. Head coach Nick Saban says Alabama's "goals are still in front of them", but do those goal include covering the spread?

Oregon Ducks (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS)

Oregon got smacked in the mouth by Arizona last Thursday – just its 11th regular season loss going back to 2008. The Ducks have followed the last 10 defeats with a victory but post a 4-5-1 ATS mark in that stretch. They also failed to cover after both losses last season.

Oregon plays at UCLA this week (also coming off of an upset), giving the Bruins 2.5-points. The Ducks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests overall and have failed to cover in six straight Pac-12 clashes.

Oklahoma Sooners (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)

The Sooners playoff hopes were dashed by TCU in Week 6, losing 37-33 as 3.5-point favorites in Fort Worth. Oklahoma doesn’t get much time to lick its wounds, with Red River rivals Texas waiting for them at the Cotton Bowl Saturday.

However, OU has followed its last nine regular season losses with nine-straight wins and has managed to cover the spread in all but two of those games. And going back even further, the Sooners are a remarkable 23-7 ATS off their last 30 defeats – covering 77 percent of the time. That’s good news for those giving the 14.5 points to the Long Horns this weekend.

Stanford Cardinal (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)

Bettors have already gotten a look at Stanford off a loss this season, rebounding to beat Army SU and ATS in Week 3 following a 13-10 loss to Southern Cal. The Cardinal have won and covered in three straight off a regular season defeat but that ATS success hasn’t always been the case. They were 4-0 SU but just 1-3 ATS in the four rebound efforts prior.

Stanford is a 17-point favorite hosting Washington State Friday, and has gone 13-6 ATS in the previous 19 meeting with the Cougars. The Cardinal are also 10-4 Over/Under in their last 14 games off a loss, with Friday’s total at 55 points.

Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS)

Under head coach Gary Anderson, the Badgers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS coming off a regular season loss – like the one Wisconsin took at Northwestern last Saturday. The Badgers won but came up short of the spread versus Western Illinois in Week 2 following their season-opening loss to LSU this year. Going back deeper into the history books, the Badgers are 11-4 SU and 8-7 ATS off a regular season loss since 2009.

This week, Wisconsin hosts Illinois as a hefty 25.5-point home favorite. If you’re not really into giving that many points in a Big Ten game, perhaps consider the Over 55 points since the Badgers are 10-3 O/U in their last 14 games off a SU defeat.

LSU Tigers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

The Bayou Bengals were squashed 41-7 at Auburn last weekend, making this weekend’s road trip to Gainesville a tough cookie to crack. Louisiana State, a 1.5-point favorite versus Florida, is a perfect 6-0 SU following a loss since 2012 and has covered in four of those six contests, including a lopsided win and cover as a 43-point favorite against New Mexico State following the loss to Mississippi State in Week 4.

The Tigers have responded well to blowout losses, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games when coming off a loss of 20 points or more. Louisiana State is also 6-1 O/U over their last seven games following a defeat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

Lines have been on the move since the college football Week 7 odds hit the board. We talk to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, about some of the biggest adjustments heading into Saturday’s games:

West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: 73.5, Move: 78

This Big 12 total keeps growing, with some shops going as high as 78 points for what should be a Wild West shootout in Lubbock. The number opened as low as 73.5 and there has been nothing but Over action – well almost.

“There was one Under bet made earlier in the week. Poor guy grabbed it at 74,” Stoneback.

Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers – Open: +3, Move: OTB, Move +1

With the news that UGA running back Todd Gurley would be out due to suspension, most shops ripped this game off the board and are now just starting to put the spread back up. MGM properties have yet to report this SEC showdown, but other markets have gone with Georgia -1 as of Friday afternoon.

“I still expect them all to come in on Georgia,” says Stoneback. “We had a few bets on Georgia before we took it down. Because this game is a 9 a.m. (Vegas time/12 p.m. ET) start, we won’t have a lot of public money on it.”

Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers – Open: -13, Move: -9

Early money actually sided with the Tigers in this ACC matchup, but since then it’s been all Cardinals cash pushing the line down as many as 3.5 points. However, now that the line is down as low as Clemson -9, action on the home side has begun to come in.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if this one closed at Clemson -10,” says Stoneback.

Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears – Open: Pick, Move: -4

Sharp action blasted this Pac-12 game just minutes after it hit the board in Las Vegas, wiping the pick off the board and pushing the spread to Cal -2.5. That line kept moving this week and now sits at -4. There was some action on Washington +3.5 but not enough to stop the steam.

“If you had told us that we’d be giving Washington four points versus Cal back in the summer, we’d tell you that you’re crazy,” says Stoneback.

 

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Game of the Day: Auburn at Mississippi State

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3, 64)

Another week, another SEC West showdown for No. 6 Mississippi State, which welcomes No. 2 Auburn to Starkville for a clash of undefeated teams. The Bulldogs have climbed to their highest ranking ever with back-to-back wins over top-10 teams LSU (34-29) and Texas A&M (48-31), running their winning streak to eight games. The gauntlet continues against an Auburn team that routed LSU 41-7 a week ago

Each of Mississippi State's opponents this season has entered the game unbeaten and left with a defeat, but the Tigers have won five of the past six meetings and 11 of 13, including a 24-20 victory last year in Auburn. "They will be the best team we've played so far," Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen told reporters. "Their guys know how to win. They've played in big games and know how to play in big games." The Tigers also know how to win conference games — they've won nine straight against SEC opponents and are the defending league champions.

TV: 3:40 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Auburn -3.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line was Auburn -3 then dropped to Auburn -2.5 for a short while before rebounding to the opening spread. The total has jumped a full point, opening at 53 and now sitting at 64.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - OL Patrick Miller (Ques-Undisclosed) Mississippi State - WR Jameon Lewis (Prob-Leg), K Devon Bell (Prob-Undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: Weather for kickoff is calling for clouds with temperatures near the 85°F. Weather for the region is calling for thuunderstorms and rain for Friday as well.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Tigers' only regular season loss of 2013 came at the hands of LSU, and they avenged that loss with a 41-7 win this Saturday. The Bulldogs moved to 5-0 with a win over Texas A&M." - Jesse Shule

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We are pretty split on this marquee matchup. We haven't seen a lot of fluctuation in the spread, dropping a half point from where we opened at +3. Obviously with two offenses that can score a number of ways, we've seen a lot of action on the over, almost 76 percent, but that hasn't bumped the number much. I'm even guessing a little as to what will transpire here, should be a good one." - John Lester

ABOUT AUBURN (5-0, 2-0 SEC): The Tigers continue to roll up impressive offensive numbers with dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall leading the way. Marshall, who has accounted for 1,147 total yards and 12 TDs, passed for a career-high 339 yards and two TDs in last year's meeting but has relied more on his legs since then. Auburn's defense has been overshadowed, but the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in scoring defense (14.4) and 14th in total defense (306.6).

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (5-0, 2-0): The Bulldogs have established themselves as an offensive powerhouse, as well, racking up over 500 total yards in six straight games dating to last year's Liberty Bowl. Quarterback Dak Prescott has emerged as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, amassing 455 rushing yards and six TDs to go with 1,232 passing yards with 13 TDs and two interceptions. The Bulldogs have been tough against the run — ranking 12th nationally at 98.2 yards per game — but have surrendered a whopping 328.2 passing yards per contest.

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
*Over is 9-2 in Tigers last 11 games on grass.
*Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Mississippi State.

CONSENSUS: 55.65 percent are on Auburn -3 with 55.2 percent backing the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 7

Looking to wager on the elite teams in college football this weekend? Don't have time to handicap every Top 25 matchup? Put your mind at ease and just cheat - with our NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet featuring all of Week 7's biggest games.

(1) Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange (+23.5, 54)

* Rashad Greene, Florida State's leading wide receiver, is in danger of missing this game. The senior wideout, who leads the Seminoles with 38 catches and 576 yards, suffered a concussion versus Wake Forest last week.

* Not be outdone in injury news, however, is Syracuse. The Orange will now be without starting quarterback Terrel Hunt for 4-6 weeks after suffering a broken calf bone last week.

(2) Auburn Tigers at (6) Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3, 64)

* According to ESPN, the Auburn Tigers have four games remaining with just a 60 percent chance of winning, including this Week 7 matchup.

* Auburn coach Gus Malzahn compared MSU QB Dak Prescott to his former signal caller, Cam Newton. "He's got some similarities. He's a big, physical guy. A lot of times in short yardage, he'll find a way to get it."

(12) TCU Horned Frogs at (3) Baylor Bears (-8, 67.5)

* There are a few teams left (Virginia, Baylor, Memphis, Ole Miss) that haven't lost against the spread, but have one push this season. But only one unblemished ATS record is left. That belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs who are the best bet in the land at 4-0 ATS.

*The Baylor Bears are 21-1 straight up in their last 22 home games (19-2 against the spread). Their only SU loss during that stretch? That came as a 6-point fave against the TCU Horned Frogs in 2012 (49-21).

(4) Ole Miss Rebels at (14) Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 65)

* Perhaps it's best to not look at Ole Miss for a letdown spot this week. Saturday was the third time this century that the Rebels defeated Alabama (2003, 2001). In both occasions, they won SU and ATS the following week.

* Myles Garrett broke the Texas A&M freshman sacks record last week and his 6.5 sacks rank second in the SEC.

North Carolina Tar Heels at (5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-16.5, 54.5)

* There are two programs left that are winless against the spread this season and the Tar Heels are one of them. North Carolina heads into Week 7 0-5 ATS (UConn is the other).

* The Irish, ever looking more like a playoff threat, were one of the biggest movers in Championship futures this week, going from 18/1 to 8/1.

(7) Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks (+8.5, 56)

* The Crimson Tide don't take defeat very well. In their last 15 losses, the Tide are just 3-12 against the spread in the following game.

* At his press conference Wednesday, Alabama head coach Nick Saban cited the Razorbacks as the most improved team the Tide will face: "I think Arkansas is the most improved team that I've seen that we play so far this year. This is a really good football team," he said.

(8) Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers (+21, 51)

* Is the Spartans' defense clapping to disrupt opponents' snap counts? Nebraska's Bo Pelini thinks so and claims it's "Something that I'll talk to the league office about". Nebraska was called for three pre-snap pelanties in the loss to the Spartans.

* Purdue quarterback Austin Appleby used a win over Illinois to claim that the Boilermakers were about to go on a streak. "This is just one win, we're gonna put a couple together now," he said after a 38-27 win over the Illini. He'll be quarterbacking a team that is a 21-point home dog Saturday.

Texas Longhorns vs. (9) Oklahoma Sooners (-14.5, 47)

* A loss to the Sooners in the Red River Rivalry and the Longhorns will have a record of 2-4 straight up, their worst start since 1956 (1-5).

* The Sooners are perfect examples of an NCAA powerhouse that responds well for bettors after a loss. The Sooners are 23-7 against the spread coming off a defeat. Oklahoma is a 14.5-point fave over Texas one week removed from a loss to TCU.

(10) Georgia Bulldogs at (24) Missouri Tigers (+3, 59)

* Georgia star running back and Heisman frontrunner RB Todd Gurley is suspended indefinitely pending a NCAA investigation. Oddsmakers priced Gurley's worth to the UGA spread between 1.5 and three points. The Bulldogs opened as 3-point road favorites but after news of Gurley's suspension spread, books took Saturday's game off the board and then reopened at a pick'em.

* The Tigers boast one of the top pass-rushing duos in the nation in defensive ends Shane Ray (SEC-best eight sacks) and Markus Golden (four sacks).

(11) Oregon Ducks at (17) UCLA Bruins (+2.5, 71)

* Oregon has certainly found contributions from some unexpected places. The Ducks have 30 offensive touchdowns this season, 13 of which have come from freshman (43 percent). Freshman WR Devon Allen (6) and RB Royce Freeman (5) are first and second in end zone visits.

* If there's one place UCLA needs to improve defensively it's on third downs. The Bruins have allowed 7.6 third-down conversions per game this season, which has them ranked No.114 in the nation in that category.

USC Trojans at (13) Arizona Wildcats (+2.5, 68)

* To say that the Trojans are a first-quarter team may be an understatement. Southern Cal has outscored opponents 52-7 in the first quarter this season.

* Despite Arizona facing an unranked team, they are the underdogs according to oddsmakers. “I’m glad we’re the underdogs," Will Parks said. That just keeps all the guys focused for the task at hand."

(18) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks (+21, 50.5)

* Despite the Cowboys sporting a 4-1 record, coach Mike Gundy has yet to really turn his team loose. "We're basic vanilla for the most part," Gundy said. "Until we improve in some areas, it’s difficult to really get out of our box."

* If there is one part of the game the Jayhawks are excelling in, it's recovering fumbles. Through five games, Kansas has a Big 12-high five fumble recoveries.

(19) East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls (+16, 58)

* In East Carolina's impressive offensive numbers, the defense has been neglected. The Pirates have only allowed 106.4 rushing yards per game (17 in FBS) and have held three of their opponents this season to less than a 2.9 yards per rush average.

* The Bulls know what they are up against Saturday and defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan has an interesting analogy for it. “This is a game played in space. For this it’s basketball played on grass. The ability to make the open field tackle and swarm to the football is huge.”

Duke Blue Devils at (23) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3, 58)

* The key for the Blue Devils has long been allowing few points. In each of Duke's four wins this season it held its opponent to fewer than 20 points, which has improved the squads record to 20-3 under David Cutcliffe when accomplishing that feat.

* The Yellow Jackets triple-option attack has been shredding teams so far this season. Georgia Tech is No.11 in the nation in rushing yards per game and has amassed 297.2 rushing yards per game.

Louisville Cardinals at (25) Clemson Tigers (-9.5, 47.5)

* Louisville may be sporting the top up-and-coming running back nobody is talking about it in Brandon Radcliff. The sophomore has 230 yards on the ground and four touchdowns in his last two games.

* There may be no better freshman quarterback than Deshaun Watson. In Watson's past two games he has racked up 702 yards in the air with an 8-to-1 touch to interception ratio.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Georgia Tech finding little opposition in Duke
Justin Hartling

Georgia Tech is ranked for the first time since 2011 and if history is any indication, Duke may not provide a challenge. The Yellow Jackets are 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 against the spread in the past 10 years against the Blue Devils.

Georgia Tech has outscored the Duke 373-161 over that span, an average point differential of 21 points per game.

The Yellow Jackets are 3-point favorites Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

North Carolina seeking its first ATS win
Stephen Campbell

North Carolina has been a terrible spread play this season, going 0-5 ATS in their first five games. The Tar Heels, along with UConn, are the only two teams in the nation yet to cover.

That's a trend that won't inspire much confidence for UNC backers ahead of their Week 6 matchup with No. 5 Notre Dame Saturday.

The Fighting Irish are currently -16.5 faves with the total set at 64.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ECU's defense quietly producing great numbers

East Carolina has made headlines this year for their high-flying offense, but due to that, their defense has gotten severely overlooked.

The Pirates have only allowed 106.4 rushing yards per game, and have held three of their opponents this season to less than a 2.9 yards per rush average.

East Carolina travels to Tampa for a date with South Florida Saturday. ECU is currently 17-point road faves with a total of 58 for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

USC keeps dominating teams in the first quarter

The USC Trojans have come out firing early in games this season. The Trojans have outscored opponents 52-7 in the first quarter five weeks into the campaign.

Southern California travels to Arizona Saturday for a matchup with the No. 13 ranked Wildcats.

The Trojans are currently 3-point road faves with the total set at 67.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alabama struggling to cover following a loss
Stephen Campbell

The perennially dominant Alabama Crimson Tide aren't used to dropping games, but when they do, their backers have been losing as well.

After falling 23-17 to Ole Miss in Week 5, Alabama will try to bounce back against Arkansas in Week 7. In their last 15 games following a loss, Bama is just 3-12 against the spread.

Arkansas is currently nine-point home dogs for the matchup. The total is presently 56.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ole Miss covering after beating Bama
Stephen Campbell

In the wake of Ole Miss' 23-17 Week 5 victory over Alabama, the No. 4 ranked Rebels looked to be in a possible letdown spot this week versus Texas A&M. Recent history shows that may not be the case, however.

Last week marked just the third time since the year 2000 that Mississippi has knocked off the Crimson Tide. In games following those victories which came in 2001 and 2003, the Rebels won straight up and covered the spread in the process.

No. 14 Texas A&M is currently 2.5-point home favorites with the total set at 65.